Top 400 Starting Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball 2025 – SP Rankings 81-100

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Tier 11 – You Want To Be A Holly But You’re A Toby (Cont’d)

These guys are generally solid volume pitchers who still have a tinge of upside to leap into the Top 50 if things break the right way.

81. Reese Olson (DET, RHP)

Olson has a great slider that is awfully effective against both LHB and RHB (with room to improve against RHB, come on, 58% strike rate? Really?) and a deadly weapon of a changeup against both RHB and LHB, though there were many games where he struggled to get the pitch high enough to LHB and failed to earn strikes he normally demands.

The biggest questions lie in his fastballs, the only trusted alternatives to the slider and changeup. Olson wisely turns to the sinker against RHB and was able to keep them at bay, though he can do a better job of jamming them instead of letting them fly carelessly over the plate. RHB get served his four-seamer 37% of the time, the worst offering in his arsenal, and I wonder if there’s an alternative in the future to allow Olson to reduce its usage to a sub 25% rate (or at least 30%). If not, it’ll continue to be a source of trouble as he hopes the change and slider do enough to keep him afloat.

Olson looks like the classic mold of a division rival SP in Ohio and that can turn him into a solid floor arm with 25% strikeout upside, though I’m a touch tepid until his changeup can find a strike rate above 60% and turn up in a consistent string of starts. In addition, Olson has a tough matchup against the Dodgers to kick off the season as the SP #3, though if you can stomach that, he should be easy going through the rest of April. In 15-teamers, his first outing isn’t of importance and should be a target in the mid-rounds, while in 12-teamers I’m willing to gauge the flow of my draft to see if there are a large array of upside fliers to take instead – I don’t feel as though I need to draft Olson and it’s a possibility the changeup doesn’t form and you’re left with a Toby for the season after stashing past the Dodgers.

Quick Take: Olson has legit potential as a strong volume arm if he can nail down his changeup to both LHB and RHB, while I’m hoping he finds a solution to limit his four-seamer against LHB. Consider him as a Holly flier and a strong target for deeper leagues.

82. Clarke Schmidt (NYY, RHP)

The biggest difference between 2023 and 2024 Schmidt? Putaway rates on his cutter and curve against LHB. Seriously, this is the biggest change I could find, outside of favoring the cutter a bit more at the cost of breakers to LHB overall. That putaway rate was a 10-15 point increase on both the curve and cutter (same rates of usage in two-strikes, mind you), which is your 21% –> 26% jump in strikeout rate overall. That’s it? That’s it.

The cutter and sinker still struggle to limit hard contact against RHB, sadly, while LHB aren’t bowled over by the increased cutter usage. It all works and is generally effective, but it’s not a demonstrative effort from Schmidt, which explains why he completed at least six frames just twice in sixteen starts last year. Schmidt has to squeeze everything out of his arsenal to get through frames without that de facto “Hit this” pitch as he lacks a high caliber heater.

That’s not to say I dislike Schmidt for 2025, it’s more that I don’t have excitement to grab him in drafts. He may flirt with a 25% strikeout rate again, though it’s more likely he comes short, while failing to be a reliable volume arm in the process. He’s a solid Toby who could be more, especially if he can be a touch more efficient to go a full six more often than in the past, stealing Wins in the process.

Quick Take: Schmidt’s lack of overpowering heater or destructive breaker makes him less efficient than his “craftiness” would imply. Still, he has 25% strikeout rate potential while comfortably pitching every five days for a winning ball club. It may not be as explosive and productive as you’d like in your 12-teamers, though.

83. Nestor Cortes (MIL, LHP)

Despite Cortes becoming the ire of Yankee fans everywhere, did you realize Cortes had just a 1.15 WHIP across 30 starts last season? With a 23% strikeout rate? His four-seamer’s near 19″ of vert mixed with a shockingly good attack angle (1.2+ HAVAA with that much iVB is absurdly rare) is the foundation of his approach, while cutters and sweepers fill in the gaps. His cutter was torched by LHB last year, and he really needs to axe the sweeper against RHB (maybe try to make the changeup work some more or just stick four-seamer/cutter), but the new situation in Milwaukee is exactly what you want. Cortes will be trusted to start every five days with a sizeable leash and gets to feast on weak NL Central offenses more than others.

I also wonder if leaving the Yankee crew will work well for Nestor. No more worrying about his situation with the team, meeting expectations, or possibly changing who he wants to be based on what the Yankee Front Office demands. This is all speculation, of course, though I can see Nestor as a Holly throughout the season, even if his fastball still sits at just 92 mph.

While there’s clear injury risk and a chance he’s dropped pretty soon into the season after he displays an inability to produce better than a Toby, you can simply cut him shortly into the season if it doesn’t work out. But you’re ignoring his first start. Oh snap! It’s in the Bronx. Against the Yankees. That’s assuming he’s the SP #2 or #3, which is completely possible, and I think I’m still going for it…? At the very least, you can draft Nestor reasonably late and drop him if you hate it before the other SP #4 or SP #5 fliers you considered get their first starts. That may be worthwhile.

Quick Take: Nestor walks few with a solid strikeout rate, is in a great situation in Milwaukee, and could lower his ERA if he finds a rhythm without the noise of NYC in his ear. Or his fastball could take a step back without a strong set of secondaries to back it up. There’s legit promise for a Holly here, though don’t hold on too tightly if it goes south early.

84. José Soriano (LAA, RHP)

I think Soriano is underrated for 15-teamers, though he’s a streamer/in-season pickup for me in 12-teamers. His greatest skill is a 98 mph bowling ball sinker with legit sink at a steep attack angle (great for a sinker with 92nd percentile loLoc!), and I’m impressed by its ability to sit down-and-armside frequently. There’s room to grow with its low 62% strike rate (some games, he just couldn’t spot the thing), but one HR allowed on 802 thrown? That’s what’s up. Stop throwing that dang four-seamer. I don’t care if it’s at 99 mph, it had a 45-50% ICR rate with its dead zone movement. Ahem. I also adore his high 41% CSW curveball that earns all the called strikes and even had a stellar 27%+ putaway rate against both sides of the plate. It’s a proper #2 pitch and we should expect more success with its dramatic velocity gap to steal called strikes and inability to make a huge adjustment when geared up for upper-90s.

But wait, there’s more! The biggest gripe for sinkerballs is typically opposite-handed batters. Soriano’s sinker is more effective than others against it, but carrying a splitter with a 60%+ strike rate and 17%+ SwStr rate to play off of it? LOVELY. Don’t worry, I dig this as a #3 with the curve as the primary focus. It’s a luxury.

His four-seamer should be removed from the arsenal outside of two-strike counts as a surprise offering, as long as it’s well upstairs given Soriano’s dead-zone movement + steep angle that makes the pitch far more hittable upstairs than you’d think a 99 mph heater would be (its drop with steep angle falls right into late bats often). There is a slider he’s working on as well, which classifies as the hardest SP slider in the bigs at 91/92 mph, and I imagine its really more of a cutter that he can’t command at all (52% strike rate with sub 50% on the days he featured the pitch often. Yikes.). It’s fun to know there’s room to grow here on top of the one-two-and-a-half punch of sinkers, curves, and anti-social splittys.

I don’t buy into the Angels development as a coaching staff, sadly (you’ll hear me say that a lot when talking about the Angels SP), which puts the onus on Soriano to make these improvements on his own. That said, just throwing more sinker strikes as he gets more time on the bump this year could make him a Valdez-lite pitcher (8% walk rate starting May 3rd) at a 20%-23% strikeout and a sizeable leash to go six full constantly, with his arm fatigue and elbow discomfort a thing of the past (MRI was clean but he missed all of September). I just wish the Angels could get him more Wins.

85. Merrill Kelly (ARI, RHP)

A mild teres strain sidelined Kelly for plenty of the season, then September brought a hamstring and calf cramps. Not a fun time for Kelly, who saw his ERA dip due to worse LOB% luck and a few more HRs. Otherwise? He’s kinda the same guy. He still has a great defense behind him, a questionable approach to LHB that relies heavily on his changeup (60% strike rate is toeing the line…) without much support, and a fascinating blueprint for RHB.

Kelly lands cutters at 90 mph down-and-away, then surprises batters with a four-seamer just inside the zone at two strikes, inducing a weak flail of a swing after batters believed it was the cutter and understood too late that it would stay in the zone. It’s a highly difficult approach to sustain throughout a year, but Kelly did it often last year and I have to tip my cap.

But yeah. Not sustainable. The slider is still a solid pitch to RHB as well, I’m concerned about his struggles with LHB and his four-seamer/cutter approach that has such a small margin for error. Super cool, of course, but brings skepticism from yours truly. With three seasons of a sub 1.20 WHIP (even with his shoulder problems!) and a small sample that brought a 4.00+ ERA, you can consider Kelly the ultimate Toby type for the year, especially in 15-teamers where his volume is more important than shallower formats.

Quick Take: Kelly is safe. He has great command and enough interesting weapons in his arsenal to propel productive ratios and Wins with the Diamondbacks at his…back, even if the strikeouts are unlikely to flirt with a 25% clip again.

86. Matthew Boyd (CHC, LHP)

Here’s an interesting one. I like a lot about Boyd entering this year and I wonder if it makes way for sneaky value. Boyd has become the perfect example of a classic Guardians starter: Two secondaries for whiffs and a highly suspect fastball. His changeup from the left side has come a long way and turned into a proper slowball to flirt with a high strike rate and 20% SwStr rate against RHB and while we haven’t seen it take full shape for an entire season, it seems ready to pounce in 2025. His other half is the slide piece, a breaker that has been his bread-and-butter since he debuted and it is destined to continue befuddling LHB with the Cubs (and maybe some RHB too!).

But that heater. Oh boy, that heater. Boyd has solid command of the pitch with full hiLoc intent, but it has every sign of a poor stuff heater. Too much drop, low extension, 92/93 mph velocity, and it seems ready to be at the whim of the Wrigley winds for longballs galore.

We have yet to see a full season of a dastardly changeup and wicked slider from Boyd, and that alone makes me excited for a potential breakout season – the Cubs are sure to give him a long leash and regular starts every five days. However, temper your expectations as the home run problem could appear in the heat of the summer and balloon his ERA in a hurry.

Quick Take: Boyd has 25% strikeout potential and could become a surprise QS darling with his changeup and slider combo. However, his four-seamer gives me heavy concern and opens the door for a poor ERA on the back of an elevated home run rate. He’s a solid early play for volume out of the gate (likely Diamondbacks + Padres aren’t the most fun matchups, though) with sleeper potential in 15-teamers.

87. Tobias Myers (MIL, RHP)

Myers had the most boring 3.00 ERA rookie season based on how little fanfare he’s been given in the fantasy community. He had a 4.03 xERA, Nick! IT WASN’T REAL! Sure, I understand why it would say that. His HOTEL wasn’t favorable with an 81% LOB rate, fine, but did you consider that Myers may improve with another season in the bigs?

He throws a quartet of pitches regularly, from a high iVB four-seamer at 93 mph that masks both a cutter and slider underneath against RHB, the former of which he tugs way too often armside and out of the zone. The latter is both a high strike offering and hard contact mitigator and could get even better if Myers improves his feel of the cutter.

Myers has some legit potential for more against LHB, specifically with his changeup. Coming in roughly 20% of the time, his changeup returned a 17% SwStr rate (great!) with just 46% strikes (what?!). In short, it was beautiful when executed properly, but Myers frequently floated it up and way out of the zone or spiked it into the dirt. It could be a weapon for both LHB and RHB in due time, and I sure hope he can flirt with a 60% strike rate in 2025. At least not sub 50%, right?

That changeup would cover a major hole in Myers’ arsenal – a legitimate whiff pitch. The four-seamer was the only reliable putaway pitch (and that was only for RHB), and I’m not sure that can stick for another season, making Myers’ 23% strikeout rate of 2024 hard to replicate unless he adds a little juice somewhere in his arsenal. It can absolutely happen, and for a pitcher with a good baseline of command, the floor is reasonable for those in 15-teamers. Consider Myers a Toby in 12-teamers for now with a bit of upside to hint at a Holly position if he can figure out the secondaries. Don’t count him out before he’s had his sophomore season.

Quick Take: Myers has a reasonable ratio floor rooted in a solid four-seamer and a variety of offerings. Without a major whiff pitch, Myers may struggle to stay above a 20% strikeout rate, though there are clear areas of growth in his secondaries that could push him toward a 25% clip.

Tier 12 – This Could Be Terrible Or Kinda Amazing

88. Kris Bubic (KCR, LHP)

Snip snap snip snap, Bubic has toyed with our hearts over the years and now seems like the best time to be interested. Bubic returned from TJS and spent time in the pen last season showcasing 93 mph with stellar marks on all pitches to both handed batters. Changeups taking down RHB, sliders taking their job seriously against LHB, and the four-seamer surprising for whiffs upstairs late. Now that he has a clear path to be SP #5 in Kansas City, we’re all curious if he can keep the gains across five or more frames consistently.

I have a few concerns. First, velocity typically drops shifting from pen to rotation and we’ve seen Bubic’s four-seamer fail when it falls to 91 mph as it was often before he underwent TJS. We’ve also some arms keep most of their velocity gains when transitioning to the rotation (Garrett Crochet, Grant Holmes, etc.) though I’d be cautious here.

I’ve also made a habit of berating (kindly, of course) Bubic for his inability to land his changeup down with any regularity. It floats too high or sails armside off the plate and while it was productive last season, I still need to see him do it across multiple starts.

That said, I need to express my excitement for Bubic’s new slider that he introduced in 2023 and kept in 2024. It takes down LHB far better than the old curve and with a legit weapon to both LHB and RHB, the four-seamer simply has to survive to make this work. Bubic also added three inches of extension, allowing for a flatter release to 1.2 HAVAA with his four-seamer, on top of extra cut-action and vertical break to the pitch. This isn’t the Bubic of old, y’all. But the changeup…? OKAY A LITTLE OF THE OLD BUBIC. (Bubic actually went 60%+ Low Location on the changeup in his ultra-short 2023 sample and in his 27 relief appearances, far better than his 40-50% clips of old!)

Keep an eye on Bubic plenty during the spring. If the four-seamer is sitting at least 92 mph and he’s comfortable with both sliders and changeups, I’ll be heavily considering him as an SP #5 flier. Does that mean you’re drafting him? Ideally, no. I’d see Bubic as the guy I pick up to replace the SP who started opening weekend. Considering he’s currently going around pick #400 and is far from a big name, I imagine he’ll slip past many in your standard 12-teamers. Deeper leagues? He should be drafted well before then given a decent spring.

Quick Take: The fifth rotation spot is Bubic’s to lose with Marsh’s setback and should be monitored closely in the spring. If he’s sitting 92 mph with solid changeups and sliders, he could be a fantastic sleeper for a solid strikeout rate and good ratios on a possible playoff squad.

89. Edward Cabrera (MIA, RHP)

Cabrera is the perfect example of a pitcher to take a flier on at the end of your drafts. But his walk rate is terrible! I can’t trust him! Absolutely and there’s a good chance he’s still frustrating and not worth the energy. HOWEVER, Cabrera still has potential and to rule out any chance of him making the tweak to finally locate fastballs decently or even change his approach would be foolish. The upside is far higher than the heavy majority of arms going late and instead of settling for meh, I’d love to go after Cabrera and see what he gives us out of the gate.

What am I looking for exactly? A few things. First, Cabrera has to figure out the four-seamer problem. Yes, he threw more strikes with the pitch in 2024, however they were horribly located either well out of the zone or down the pipe. Throwing a near 50% ICR pitch nearly 30% of the time is baaaad. Either lean into the sinker and figure out how to prevent it from falling off too far arm-side, or simply save heaters for the rare surprise pitch at 15%-20% of the time.

Second, I want the slider to become a much larger focus. The pitch acts like a 90 mph cutter and has had fantastic results against RHB, while it could be a major addition against LHB – Cabrera’s biggest weakness. The slider can cover the four-seamer’s role for both handedness as a legit strike pitch, while going in the opposite direction of his elite changeup.

And finally, the aforementioned changeup. As the hardest “slow”ball in the league, Cabrera’s changeup has been the moneymaker for outs in play, but the offering took a large step back against LHB last season. Despite being the ideal pitch against opposite-handed batters, it fell to a 56% strike rate against LHB with a terrible 11% SwStr rate. Yes, that’s all about consistency and rhythm, which he had in 2023 as a 64% strike rate + 19% SwStr weapon against LHB. Focus on his at-bats against LHB and see if Cabrera finds a groove with the changeup again.

Merging a possible renaissance with the changeup to LHB + an embrace of sliders and rejection of four-seamers may be a lot to ask for a pitcher with a stark walk rate. That said, I personally don’t see the mechanics of a “lost” pitcher in Cabrera and can envision a phenomenal spring that leads into the start of the year. Circle him as a “Welp, let’s see how this goes” option who you can cut early if it’s not there. I just want him to get a full year to figure it all out.

Quick Take: Treat Cabrera like a rental for the start of the year. Cabrera has needed more time to fully develop and he could show signs of improved command out of the gate, with a heavier slider lean and fewer four-seamers. Have him on a short leash, but there is a shockingly realistic possibility of a sub 10% walk rate with a 25-30% strikeout rate here.

90. David Festa (MIN, RHP)

Festa feels super close to making it all work. He comes with 94/95 mph velocity with seven feet of extension and while his iVB looks great at 17″, it’s actually normal for his arm angle. However, the heater gets exceptional cut action, which he doesn’t take advantage of currently. In 2024, it seemed as though Festa thought “high vert = high location”, but in fact, he should be jamming that thing inside to LHB on the regular. Against RHB, sure, keep that upstairs, just pair it with a sinker inside (seven feet of extension, remember!) and you’ve got yourself a dang good foundation.

The secondaries have small tweaks to make but show promise, too. The changeup obliterated LHB for a 21% SwStr rate and 63% Strike rate at a monster 39% usage, but the slider was unreliable to RHB. We want to see a tight down-and-away epicenter for the pitch and we saw a scattershot of breakers at 86 mph that led to a low 14% SwStr rate and poor 45% ICR. I want to feel better about that slider, but hot dang, that was some poor command.

I look at the options for the Twins and it seems clear that Festa should earn a rotation spot out of the gate and guess what? As the SP #4 or #5, Festa would get the White Sox as his first start of the season. Oh BABY. Festa’s ADP may jump drastically during March if he looks confirmed inside the rotation, though you may be able to sneak him as a pickup after the opening weekend. I’m all for that, and I’m also fine with drafting him with one of my final picks. Let’s see if he’s made any adjustments and can take full advantage of regular starts in the majors.

Quick Take: Festa has a good foundation that he needs to build on. Embracing the four-seamer inside to LHB + adding a sinker to RHB, while wrangling the slider are the key factors I’m looking for that could turn him into a legit SP overnight. If he wins a job in camp, he’ll get the White Sox in a start that may put him on the map.

91. Hayden Wesneski (HOU, RHP)

Wesneski’s sweeper has stolen our hearts for years. As expected, it performed well against RHB last season, but as not expected, it arguably performed better against LHB last season with a stupid good 22% ICR and 19% SwStr rate. It was due to a heavy two-strike usage and incredible efficiency with the pitch down-and-inside, acting as a back-foot slider. Fun stuff. I’m highly skeptical the breaker can perform just as well across a full season and five to six innings inside a single game, but at least there’s a record of it working.

My larger concern comes from the rest of the arsenal. He spots his sinker well inside to RHB – great! – but the four-seamer is highly suspect and gets far too much of the plate, even at seven feet of extension. I’d feel a lot more comfortable with Wesneski if he could go the Wheeler method and get that dang four-seamer upstairs to pair with the sinker better.

In addition, the LHB approach isn’t refined. Outside of the late sweeper, Wesneski goes four-seamer/cutter, which shows some promise (especially the cutter), but the heater gets a ton of the plate and should not replicate its low ICR from 2024…unless the cutter is played off it better and dances between the four-seamer to confound batters with his great extension. It’s a bit of a reach (ha!) and I wouldn’t have expectations for it to come together.

The Astros sure seem to have faith in Wesneski as their SP #5, though. There are only a handful of other options (mostly two prospects without a start in the bigs) and pitching for the ‘Stros is a good situation to be in. I’m concerned we won’t see the mega upside we once envisioned when he unveiled the breaker way back in 2022 (what a day that was as a follower!) and I’m really looking for to seeing Wesneski in the spring. He’ll have the open track to being a starter for the first time in his career and it could mean a shift in approach across the board.

Quick Take: Wesneski is an interesting late flier given his clear claim to the fifth spot of the Astros’ rotation, though he lacks a bit of meat in the arsenal to build upon his legit sweeper. His spring could be highly illuminating and with his potential first matchup of the year coming against the Giants, he could be a great backup option if your early flier doesn’t pan out over opening weekend.

92. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI, RHP)

Many people smarter than me adore Pfaadt and want to target him this year. Me? Ehhhhh, I can understand some of the logic, but I’m not fully there as I believe it’s banking on potential development that we know nothing about. But his horrible luck! Yes yes yes, Pfaadt was unlucky last year. His LOB% was an atrocious 64.5% reserved only for our greatest enemies that propelled his 4.71 ERA, but there is some truth to it. Pfaadt’s extreme groundball sinker will inflate BABIP more than others, he still has some HR problems (1 –> 13 HRs allowed on sweepers last year?!), and his attack against LHB is rough, y’all. The changeup is not coming along and we know sweepers don’t work well against opposite-handed batters. That leaves his four-seamer/sinker combo to do a whole lot more than it should.

That combo is pretty cool against RHB, though. Pfaadt does a brilliant job splitting the two over the plate in both usage and location, leaning into his sinker’s exceptional drop and high four-seamers to return plenty of flyballs (without vert!) and 70% grounders on sinkers. I don’t love it – if batters guess correctly, the pitches themselves aren’t all that great…hey, HRs! – but when he’s commanding it all, he cruises.

But against LHB, that combo isn’t nearly as good. The four-seamer is scattered around and returned a 45% ICR with a low SwStr rate, while the sinker was tossed just 13% of the time for a 48% ICR. They got hit. Everything got hit by LHB.

So yes, Pfaadt did get unlucky last year. It’s possible his FIP tells an accurate story, though I see an elevated BABIP and somewhat “unlucky” LOB rate being the life Pfaadt is destined to live with his LHB struggles and heavy grounder tendencies. The fella needs something new instead of relying on stellar command for a stretch to bring his ratios back to decency. It’s too much to ask for a pitcher who could actively hurt your team if left alone for the full year.

Quick Take: If Pfaadt can figure out his LHB problem or get into a command rhythm for an extended period, he could fall close into Holly territory. However, Walker’s removal at 1B may keep the BABIP still high even with normalization + I’m struggling to determine what Pfaadt does to fix his time against LHB. That’s too much risk for me in 12-teamers.

93. Kutter Crawford (BOS, RHP)

The news came out that Crawford was dealing with a knee injury late in the season and is a bit behind in his spring schedule. Let’s imagine he’s all healthy and gets the fifth spot in the rotation for the Red Sox, I’m not sure I really want to deal with another season of Crawford (after all this talk about five-man, six-man, who gets pushed out, blah blah blah, it goes back to the old saying I have about six man rotations: “Six man rotations are like the Fellowship of the Ring: They begin with many men and grand ambitions only to end with two dudes barely surviving.” Sure, some teams actually pull it off for the full year, but it happens every spring.).

When Crawford overperformed at the start of 2024, I remember watching him and losing confidence once I understood that Crawford didn’t have that pitch in his arsenal to whip out at a given time and get out of a jam. That pitch eventually became the (k)utter by the second half (to a degree), but I still feel uneasy about his fastball, sweeper, kutter, and splitter arsenal.

Yes, a splitter! And it was actually consistent against LHB even if barely touched and hot dang does that four-seamer need to go away against them. 34% usage at nearly 50% ICR ain’t it y’all.

That kutter is really the best thing he’s got by far. It dominated RHB, was a solid offering to LHB, and I hope he continues to find success with it when the four-seamer inevitably lowers in usage. The sweeper also overperformed against LHB and I have some concerns overall with the pitch given Kutter’s extremely high release point, but overall, Crawford is a decent pitcher – great for 15-teamers – who is likely set up to allow plenty of HRs while keeping the WHIP down. It’s possible he can flirt with a 25% strikeout rate if the splitter is more of a thing against LHB (and doesn’t fail him), while the sweeper’s 14% putaway rate to RHB last year has to rise.

It’s just that dang four-seamer with its great iVB that doesn’t actually fool batters with his arm angle. Mix that with the knee problems and questions about his actual role in the rotation have me steering away in drafts, but I could easily jump back in if he finds a locked spot and displays a stronger approach.

Quick Take: Crawford’s kutter has turned into a great pitch, but it may be due to batters jumping at the unfortunately hittable four-seamer. He needs his splitter to do more against LHB with the sweeper coming through in two-strikes to RHB while limiting the four-seamer, which may be too tall of an order. Expect HRs high with a decent WHIP and near a strikeout per inning.

94. DJ Herz (WSN, LHP)

Herz had some fun moments in his rookie year and I hope we see more in 2025, though I won’t be the manager holding onto him entering the year. I’m a bit shocked to see Herz’s four-seamer boast a 15%+ SwStr rate against RHB, likely a product of its 91st percentile horizontal break that he abused up-and-away. Still, at 93/94 mph and over 50% usage, I don’t think that’s enough to carry the arsenal as the changeup was wildly inconsistent. The better games you saw from Herz in 2024 were a product of getting that changeup down and missing bats, while the disasters came when the pitch vanished.

Against LHB, the hope is for a southpaw to carry a demoralizing slider, which Herz doesn’t have. Its break looks more like a cutter at a slow 86/87 mph and it was inefficient in two-strike counts, let alone ineffective as an “anytime” breaker with a 40%+ ICR and sub 14% SwStr rate. Not great.

If Herz finds the feel for his slowball while figuring out a better plan of attack for LHB, there’s potential for reliability, even if it’s not at the top of the SP ranks. Given the team context, it’s not a fun gamble to make, especially when early success doesn’t promise longevity – we saw Herz have his change for a few games then lose it constantly during his rookie campaign.

Quick Take: Herz’s four-seamer performed better than expected in 2024, while his change and slider leave a lot to be desired. I’m hesitant to trust he’ll find stability in his arsenal, while an improved slider or new offering to LHB is a must for the season ahead.

95. Hayden Birdsong (SFG, RHP)

Can the dude just throw strikes? That’s not to say his stuff is so good that it’s the only thing holding him back – Birdsong sits 96+ mph but doesn’t have elite shape – though the slider showcased what success could be if he was able to execute more often: Birdsong’s tight breaker returned a 68% strike rate and 24% SwStr rate against RHB across 150+ thrown. That’s the good stuff Hayden! THROW IT LIKE THAT. Who are you talking to? His curve and change, mostly. We saw a handful of glorious outings fueled by the hook returning a near 80% strike rate, but it returned a ragged 56% clip for the full year. Nope. And the slowball? It looks nice when it comes out of his hand just right, but hot dang you can tell how frustrating it was to wield.

It’s strange to suggest there’s legit upside in a starter without a four-seamer that has 13-15% SwStr rate potential, but the slider and curve are two stuff-heavy pitches that just need to find strikes more often. Uhhhh, they aren’t the problem. You’re right. It’s the heater’s 57% strike rate to LHB and the constant uncompetitive fastballs that get him into poor counts. It’s painful and I hope he can make the tweak to repeat his release point for more precision. His 27%+ strikeout rate from last year can stick on the back of those breakers if he can, but I’m not expecting it to come with a good ERA or WHIP until the fastball is able to return 65%+ strikes to both LHB and RHB.

Quick Take: He’s a fun upside play who has poor command as a prototypical PEAS. I’m generally pessimistic about poor command arms growing quickly to have enough control to allow their whiff-heavy pitches to prevent baserunners and I’d rather let him sit on the wire when he gets his shot this year.

96. Eury Pérez (MIA, RHP)

We love Eury Pérez. We hate injuries. After getting TJS April 8th last year, we shouldn’t expect Pérez to return before July, though that doesn’t mean you should ignore him. He’s a clear case of “When he pitches, it’s quality” and I’m all for stashing him in your H2H leagues throughout the year – it’s him, Strider, and Giolito as the prime stashes in my book (excluding Ohtani SP).

His four-seamer comes in at 97 mph with nearly 7.0 feet of extension (Read: DOPE), iVB and above-average HAVAA. It’s bonkers and I’m still shocked it returned nearly 50% ICR with just a 10% SwStr rate. Maybe it’s because they sat on it? I think you’re right – after all, his slider and curve each returned 20%+ SwStr rate marks without elite movement. And even with that “hittable” fastball, Eury still had a low 7.1 H/9 with solid ratios. He’s a stud in the making and when you’re at the point in your draft when you are staring at HIPSTER and Toby types, I’d grab the injured ace.

Quick Take: Eury will be valuable this year when he returns from TJS, but how much will we actually see? Expect a return around the All-Star Break and a slow build up, creating roughly 10 starts of “full go” before season’s end. It’ll be ace-like quality, though, and he may be a league winner for those in H2H leagues.

97. Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET, RHP)

Sawyer underwent Internal Brace surgery in late April, which spells a return in May/June as he’s had a setback with his hip as well, and should be on your radar. I’d imagine he’ll be sent to the minors before getting placed directly back into the rotation, but…you may want to IL stash him. The dude has 7.5 feet of extension and was sitting 94 mph with a true sinker (93rd percentile drop!) with a slider and changeup that he refused to float upstairs. The guy is made to confound down in the zone and go the Neckbeard approach, while he could theoretically go upstairs with four-seamers at his extension and 1.4 HAVAA.

Sooooo yeah. Here’s a stupid fun sleeper, especially for your draft and holds. Sure, it’s not clear if he’ll be back to normal when he does arrive, but dang. This feels like a super unique skill set with shockingly stellar command that could be super real. Wow.

Quick Take: Gipson-Long has a unique mix of legit vertical pitches that he keeps down merged with Gilbert-esque extension that makes for a very legitimate starter if he’s fully healthy once returning. This is your ultra sneaky IL stash.

98. Kyle Bradish (BAL, RHP)

Bradish got TJS in June of last year and he can be treated as an IL stash at the end of your draft if you like. Just have the discipline to drop the fella if you need that spot in April or May as we may not see Bradish at all this year.

But if we do? Expect an SP #3 or so, armed with one of the best sliders in baseball. I’m excited for Bradish in 2026 assuming his surgery went well and we’ll be chatting about Bradish plenty this summer as we monitor his progress. Strider, Eury, Bieber, Javier, and Bradish are the four major IL stashes of the summer and Bradish is a bit less appealing given fastballs are generally the pitch that comes back first. Still worth the gamble if you have the spot, though.

Quick Take: Bradish is recovering from TJS and shouldn’t be expected to return earlier than August, while he could easily miss the entire season. Don’t hold on tightly and drop him if the spot is needed.

99. Cristian Javier (HOU, RHP)

Javier underwent TJS in June of last year and shouldn’t be expected back before July, let alone at all in 2025. He’s that IL stash you can make in your drafts if you like, though I have a little more caution with him than others given his control problems across his career with a reliance on four-seamer dominance. It seems like we could get something by August or September, but will it be worthwhile? You better drop Javier if you run out of IL spots during the year, which is sure to happen prior to his return, making him more of a “eh, whatever” add in June when you have the free spot.

Quick Take: You know the drill. He’s free and could be much more like his former self with a legit fastball and two great secondaries. Just drop him when you need the roster spot.

100. Shane Bieber (CLE, RHP)

Bieber underwent TJS in April last season, putting him on a timeline for July or so. Feel free to add him as an IL stash, but I must insist you don’t hold on too tightly if you need that IL spot in April or May. Bieber isn’t worth losing a roster spot for months given we have no idea of his quality once he does return to the rotation. I’m optimistic he’ll help your teams down the stretch, but it’s not a sure thing and I’d much rather have players on my squad who give me present value for months than the chance of solid production down the road.

Quick Take: Take a chance, make it happen. You could be popping the cork, fingers snapping if you stash Bieber and he pays off by the end of the year. Just make sure to drop him in April/May if you need the roster spot.