After making a case for and against every American League franchise qualifying for the postseason, we move on to the National League. Without a doubt, the talent level and top-heaviness of the NL are far greater than that of the AL, which might lead some to believe that picking six postseason teams will be an easier task. Let’s find out.
NL East
2024: 89-73 (wild card)
Case for: Atlanta lost its best hitter, Ronald Acuña Jr. (right ACL tear), and top starting pitcher, Spencer Strider (right elbow surgery), for nearly all of 2024. Yet, this franchise still won 89 games and claimed a wild-card spot. It is believed that Acuna will return in mid-May, while Strider should be back in the rotation at some point in April. Last season also saw injuries to Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris II. Add up all the injuries along with a down year by first baseman Matt Olson (who hit a club-record 54 homers in 2023 and followed that up with 29 in ’24), and when this team is fully healthy, there’s very little that should get in the way of Atlanta claiming its seventh division title in eight years.
Case against: Maybe Olson’s ’23 slash line of .283/.389/.604 was just an outlier, and last season’s .247/.333/.457 line is more or less what we should expect going forward. If Acuna can’t stay healthy and returns as a lesser player than the 40-70 NL MVP of 2023, then despite all the offensive talent up and down this lineup, the other bats will need to produce at a similar level as ’23. The rotation is questionable, even with Strider returning in a month and a presumed healthy Chris Sale ready to defend his NL Cy Young Award. It’s difficult to assume both aces will stay healthy for the entire campaign, given their injury histories. Without Strider and Sale at their best, Atlanta could be on the outside looking in come October.
Gut feeling: The pitching will be fine at full health, and even though it’s likely that parts of the rotation probably won’t last the entire year without at least a few visits to the injured list, I trust Atlanta’s offense with the addition of left fielder Jurickson Profar to keep it in the playoff picture and ultimately win the NL East.
2024: 62-100 (missed playoffs)
Case for: This franchise probably doesn’t even believe it’s a playoff contender in 2024, but if everything clicks and Sandy Alcantara successfully returns from Tommy John surgery to lead the National League in victories, maybe the Fish will hang around in the wild-card race. It’s going to take 25 to 30 great outings from the 2022 NL Cy Young winner just to hover around .500 in the standings. Despite the rotation dealing with some early-season injuries to Edward Cabrera (blister on throwing hand) and the pitcher Miami hopes will eventually lead their staff, Eury Perez (TJ surgery, expected back midseason), the addition of Cal Quantrill could help keep the Marlins afloat.
Case against: Everything not mentioned above looks to be a problem for a team that is filled with names that the average MLB fan probably never heard of. Either way, whether fans know the names or not, the lineup won’t be good enough to compete against the three powerhouse franchises in this division and probably will struggle against the steadily improving Washington Nationals as well.
Gut feeling: There’s not a division you could place the Marlins in where they might compete for a playoff spot. Not enough talent on a franchise that is only two years removed from the postseason. Anything but a last-place finish in the NL East would be surprising.
2024: 89-73 (wild card)
Case for: Hello, former New York Yankees star Juan Soto. Welcome back to the NL East and to a team that looks primed for a World Series run after falling two games short in last year’s NL Championship Series. With the addition of the MLB’s active on-base percentage leader (.421) to a lineup that includes last year’s NL MVP runner-up, Francisco Lindor, and re-signed slugger Pete Alonso, finding a more potent top three of the order in this division is unlikely. Probably because, at their best, no NL East lineup’s first three is as scary as New York’s. Between the powerful lineup, a rotation hoping to have a healthy Kodai Senga, and a reliever-turned-starter, Clay Holmes (also from the Yankees), there’s very little to suggest the Mets won’t be better than the 89-win squad that made the postseason a year ago.
Case against: A key part of last year’s success was left-hander Sean Manaea, who will miss the start of the season with a right oblique strain. The 12-game winner helped the Mets to their first NLCS since 2015. He must stay on the field. Given Manaea’s injury history, along with the often unhealthy Frankie Montas Jr. (out until May with a high-grade lat strain) expected to play major roles, it’s possible this rotation falls apart midway through the season. If so, New York could very well miss the playoffs.
Gut feeling: On the assumption that Holmes adjusts to the starting role and Senga returns to what made him the runner-up for NL Rookie of the Year in 2023, there’s no reason to believe the Mets won’t be right there for the division crown. A 90-plus-win season and a wild-card berth feels about right.
2024: 95-67 (won NL East)
Case for: Every season, I glance at the Phillies’ preseason rotation, it never changes at the top. It’s Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, followed by everyone else. The rotation is not only talented but experienced, and until Wheeler and Nola show no signs of slowing down, there’s not a more trustworthy 1-2 punch in the National League, if not all of MLB. Philadelphia is planning on starting new acquisition Jesús Luzardo in the second game of the season. Luzardo has had some recent injuries to overcome, but when healthy, can be one of the more underrated pitchers in the game.
The Phillies’ lineup hasn’t changed much, but still includes the former two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper, along with Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber, and all the other familiar faces that have made up one of the deepest lineups in the league over the last few seasons. A good lineup, a good rotation, and a new closer in former Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Jordan Romano should pretty much guarantee a playoff spot in 2025.
Case against: It’s an aging offense with mostly 30-somethings leading the charge and no player under age 27 in the projected Opening Day lineup. That’s not to say this offense is too old to compete when healthy, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the veterans need extra days off or get banged up more so than in past years. They might need a youth movement soon.
Gut feeling: Even if a few of the key veteran bats need some time off here and there, Philadelphia will be in the NL East race for the entire season. Like last year, the division will see three franchises playing in October. The Phillies will be there as a wild-card team.
2024: 71-91 (missed playoffs)
Case for: The Nationals may very well be one of the surprise teams in 2025. Washington added a few veteran bats in Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell (who played with the Nats in 2021). There’s a lot to be excited about if potential stars Dylan Crews and James Wood break out this season. With 24-year-old speedster CJ Abrams likely batting ahead of them, there will be a lot of action on the basepaths once again for the team that led MLB with 223 thefts last season. The offense could be good enough to keep the Nats in the playoff hunt and, if things break right, potentially steal a wild-card spot from one of the three heavy favorites in this division.
Case against: The starting rotation after projected Opening Day starter MacKenzie Gore is, shall we say, questionable. The likes of Jake Irvin (who led the NL with 14 losses in ’24), Michael Soroka, and Mitchell Parker will not worry opposing offenses. The bullpen has some questions as well. It’s going to take a huge boost in production from every arm on this team just to keep the Nationals afloat in the playoff race. That’s asking a lot, and, therefore, an easy case can be made against Washington making the postseason.
Gut feeling: There’s potential here. Washington should improve on its 71-win campaign, but in the end, a fourth-place finish well ahead of the Marlins seems fitting.
NL Central
2024: 83-79 (missed playoffs)
Case for: Chicago added Houston Astros three-time All-Star Kyle Tucker to a lineup that should be good enough to rank at or near the top of the NL Central. Tucker gives the Cubs a consistent bat in the middle of the order, and if Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and some of the younger hitters like Matt Shaw and Pete Crow-Armstrong play well, then this team should certainly be right there for a division title when it’s all said and done.
Given that Chicago’s rotation features two reliable lefties in Justin Steele and last year’s fifth-place finisher for the NL Cy Young Award, Shota Imanaga, expect the pitching staff to keep the team in plenty of games. One of Tucker’s teammates in Houston, closer Ryan Pressly, also joins the Cubs in 2025 and certainly adds some reliability to the ‘pen.
Case against: The Cubs haven’t qualified for the postseason since 2020. Tucker can carry a team to a playoff berth as long as he has consistent help around him. We don’t know how Shaw and first baseman Michael Busch will perform in the middle of the lineup. Shaw is a rookie, and Busch hit .248 with 21 homers in his first full season last year. Infielders Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner are going to be asked to do a lot offensively if Shaw and Busch struggle out of the gate.
Gut feeling: Tucker is a great addition and is a sleeper pick for the NL MVP if the Cubs end their postseason drought. Chicago has just enough talent to win the weakest division in the National League.
2024: 77-85 (missed playoffs)
Case for: Terry Francona. Wherever Francona goes, positive results seem to follow. The new manager of the Reds brings a vibe to a team that two years ago won 82 games and looked primed to take a big step in 2024 and potentially win the NL Central. However, injuries throughout the roster hit the Reds hard in ’24. Assuming that the rotation stays healthy and the new addition via trade, Brady Singer, can throw 180 quality innings or so, then the pitching staff should hold its own.
Last year’s stolen base leader, Elly De La Cruz, will look to continue on his path to stardom. The 23-year-old face of the franchise is plenty capable of leading Cincy back to the postseason for the first time since 2020. Not only can Cruz cause mayhem on the basepaths, but he improved his batting average by 24 points last season and hit for power (71 extra-base knocks).
Case against: Cruz is great. Francona is great. But is anyone else on this Reds team going to be great? Names like TJ Friedl, Matt McLain, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are going to be heavily relied on. The early-season loss of last season’s team RBI leader, Spencer Steer (shoulder injury), and the departure via trade of former leadoff man, Jonathan India, could put this team in an early hole.
Gut feeling: The bats should hold their own regardless of losing Steer early on. However, if the injury to Steer proves to be a serious issue, then Cincinnati could be in trouble. The key will be how the rotation fairs with Hunter Greene, the aforementioned Singer, Nick Martinez, and Nick Lodolo. The Reds will be better than last year, but fall just short of a playoff spot.
2024: 93-69 (won NL Central)
Case for: It seems no matter who the Brewers lose on their roster each year, they still find a way to make the playoffs via a division title or a wild-card berth. Milwaukee has won four division titles going back to 2018 and has qualified for the postseason six times in the last seven years. This franchise knows how to pick apart the NL Central, whether it be with the bats like Christian Yelich or the arms like former ace Corbin Burnes (now with the Arizona Diamondbacks).
This year’s team looks good enough offensively to compete in this division, assuming Yelich is fully healthy after having back surgery last year. One of the exciting young players in MLB, 21-year-old Jackson Chourio, is expected to be the team’s everyday leadoff hitter. With, arguably, the best offensive catcher in the game, William Contreras, batting behind Chourio, the top of the order could be potent.
Case against: Freddy Peralta has been a consistently good starting pitcher for Milwaukee over the last four seasons, but after him, it’s difficult to feel overly confident about this Brewers rotation. Milwaukee will ride its hopes on the return of Brandon Woodruff from shoulder surgery (expected to return in April after missing all of 2024) and on newly acquired Nestor Cortes, who was traded from the Yankees as part of a deal that sent one of the dominant closers in the game to the Bronx. The departure of Devin Williams at the back end of the bullpen is a huge loss to overcome.
Gut feeling: Too many question marks. Between the pitching staff, the loss of Williams in the ‘pen, and Yelich’s return from back surgery, this feels like a year Milwaukee will struggle to stay consistent. If another 93-win season and a third straight NL Central title are in the future, I won’t be shocked, given this franchise’s recent history, but I will be surprised. The Brewers will miss out on the playoffs for the first time since 2022.
2024: 76-86 (missed playoffs)
Case for: We’ll start with the obvious in last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, Paul Skenes. If Skenes does indeed become as great as most believe he can be, then Pittsburgh will be the favorite to win almost every game that the phenom pitches. Skenes is the key, and, to be frank, this Pirates franchise, which hasn’t been to the postseason since 2015, will only have a shot to get there if he dominates over a full season.
Case against: Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, there is a major question mark right now regarding its No.2 arm, 23-year-old Jared Jones, who is dealing with elbow discomfort. Not only is it asking too much of Skenes to carry a questionable rotation that includes veterans Mitch Keller and Andrew Heaney, but if Jones is out for any significant amount of time, there’s very little hope that the Pirates will improve on their 76-win campaign from a year ago.
Even with a fully healthy rotation, the offense could be problematic if it can’t score enough runs. How good will Oneil Cruz be? Is he a star in the making, or not? His numbers don’t jump off the page, yet all the analytics people out there love his hard-hit rates and potential. Cruz is entering his age-26 season. If he continues to be mediocre with the bat and doesn’t take the next step forward, then there’s no hope for the Buccos. The lineup around him is average at best.
Gut feeling: Skenes will be good. How good? We’ll find out soon. Can Skenes throw 180 dominant frames and maybe reach 200 innings pitched? If so, there’s still not enough talent on this roster to earn a playoff berth, and for the 10th consecutive year, Pittsburgh will not be playing in October.
2024: 83-79 (missed playoffs)
Case for: There is very little to get excited about in St. Louis at this time. The Cardinals didn’t do anything in the offseason to improve their storied franchise. Yet, there is still a case to be made for a team that won 83 games last year despite having only one player hit over 20 home runs (Paul Goldschmidt led the team with 22 homers and is now playing for the Yankees). Based on the fact that there was very little power in last year’s lineup and some of their young future potential stars like Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker didn’t do much of anything at the dish, there is definitely reason to believe that things can’t get any worse in St. Louis and, therefore, will only get better. If that’s the case, then the Cardinals, who finished six games out of a wild-card spot last season, will be right in the thick of the playoff race this year.
Case against: Everything that went wrong in 2024 could easily occur again in 2025. With no significant improvements to a franchise seeking its first division title since ’22, there’s a strong case to be made that this is a last-place team in the NL Central. Sonny Gray is a nice option at the top of the rotation, and when healthy, he’s proven to be an All-Star caliber pitcher. However, veterans Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and Erick Fedde haven’t been All-Star-type arms in quite some time.
Gut feeling: Simply put. Not feeling it. The Cardinals will probably finish with around the same amount of wins as last year and remain out of the basement of the division, but the National League is too top-heavy for St. Louis to compete for a wild-card spot. Their only hope is the NL Central crown, and that’s unlikely to happen this season.
NL West
2024: 89-73 (missed playoffs)
Case for: Despite a somewhat down season from ace Zac Gallen in 2024, who still put up respectable numbers, and the fact that Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez were lost for most of the year due to injuries, this Diamondbacks’ rotation looks to be fully healthy for the start of the new campaign. Oh yeah, and they added one of the best right-handers in the game in Corbin Burnes. If Arizona’s rotation stays healthy, anyone could argue that it’s as good, if not better than any in this division, including the one on the star-studded Los Angeles Dodgers.
Arizona lost three-time Gold Glove first baseman Christian Walker but replaced him with Josh Naylor, who mashed 31 homers and drove in 108 runs for Cleveland last season. 2023 NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll’s sophomore season didn’t go as planned, but if he bounces back to form, then this offense will be plenty good enough to give the pitching staff enough run support to stay in the NL West race.
Case against: The bullpen has some good arms, but there isn’t that one guy who manager Torey Lovullo probably feels overly confident with late in games. We’ve seen numerous franchises fail to make the playoffs because of mediocre to below-average ‘pens. If Arizona doesn’t improve on its 4.41 reliever ERA from a year ago, then no matter how well the rotation pitches, there could be a lot of blown leads late in games. If that happens too frequently, then Arizona could finish third in the NL West and miss the postseason.
Gut feeling: The rotation is too good. The offense was really good last year and could be better in 2025. Other than the pen, there’s not much to be concerned about here. Arizona returns to the postseason as a wild-card team.
2024: 61-101 (missed playoffs)
Case for: If Kris Bryant and maybe some of the other former one-time hopeful stars could ever meet their expectations, then at least an offense that plays in the most hitter-friendly bandbox in modern-day history could put up enough runs to make up for a pitching staff that hasn’t posted an ERA under 5.00 since 2021. Short of those unrealistic expectations, there’s no other case to be made for the Rockies to compete in what looks to be the most difficult division in MLB.
Case against: Horrid pitching, questionable hitting, and a franchise that hasn’t finished better than fourth place in the NL West since 2018. There’s no hope right now in Colorado until the front office figures out a way to persuade good pitchers and hitters to consider making Denver, with its high altitude, their home.
Think about this if you were or currently are a player. Some of the greatest hitters in Rockies franchise history, such as Hall of Famers Larry Walker and Todd Helton (obvious greats regardless of where they called home), are always going to be questioned about how good they really were because of the unfair advantage of playing 81 games a year at Coors Field. If you’re a pitcher, no matter how well you perform on the road, those home numbers will likely increase your overall ERA to well above 4.00 at best. Last year, Ryan Feltner led the starting staff with a 4.52 earned run average. Even if the Rockies had a phenomenal lineup, would any pitcher willingly choose to play in Colorado if it meant a potential 20-win season but an ERA well north of 4.00? I doubt it. It’s the only location in MLB that’s a losing battle for the reputations of both hitters and pitchers. Crazy.
Gut feeling: No playoffs and a fifth-place finish.
2024: 98-64 (won NL West)
Case for: It’s the exact opposite situation in Los Angeles as it is in Colorado. Who wouldn’t want to play for the Dodgers? Players get paid well and are all but guaranteed to be playing in October every season. The Dodgers will look to make it 13 straight postseason appearances as this superstar-driven squad appears to have no significant weaknesses in any department. We could go over all the stars and all the pedigree in the rotation and lineup. We could talk about Shohei Ohtani not only going for his fourth MVP award but also hoping to make a comeback as a starting pitcher as well. There’s so much we could say about this franchise, but I’m willing to bet all of you reading this now know exactly where the defending World Series champs expect to be at year’s end. The case for the Dodgers is that they are always in the playoffs, and, on paper, this is the most talented roster they’ve had during this decade-plus of dominance.
Case against: There is one case to be made against the Dodgers qualifying for the playoffs. Just one. For as talented and deep as their projected rotation is, not one of its members has come close to throwing 200 innings in an MLB season. Why? Injuries. Every single one of their main starters, from Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Ohtani, Dustin May, and even last year’s rookie phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto, has had serious enough injuries to keep them off the field for long periods of time. I’m not saying this team can’t overcome significant injuries to its staff as it’s proven to do in past years, but if enough of these big names go down early with significant injuries, then there could potentially be issues keeping runs off the board. If that happens, they’ll probably still find a way to win enough contests to make the postseason. But if everyone goes down, at least two other franchises in this division are good enough to overtake them in the standings.
Gut feeling: The Dodgers will more than likely have some injuries to their pitching staff. History backs that up. But, unless this season ends in a ’94-like strike, there’s no excuse and really no way that the Dodgers don’t get into the playoffs via a wild card at worst. I’ll take the Dodgers holding off the Diamondbacks to claim a fourth consecutive NL West title.
2024: 93-69 (wild card)
Case for: As it stands right now, regardless of the constant rumors around swapping two of their best starting pitchers at some point before the trade deadline, this team, on paper, should once again win about 90 games. Dylan Cease and Michael King form a legitimate 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, and the bullpen will be solid enough to hold most late leads.
The offense is formidable. With three-time batting champion Luis Arraez playing a full season in the leadoff spot, runs shouldn’t be an issue with the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and last year’s NL Rookie of the Year runner-up, Jackson Merrill, hitting behind him.
Case against: Tatis is good. The question is, can he be great? Before his 80-game PED suspension in 2023, it looked like Tatis was going to be one of the few true faces of MLB. Since his return from that suspension, he’s been a decent hitter when healthy. After watching Tatis and his teammates flash their talent in last year’s NL Division Series before being shut out by the Dodgers over the last two contests and losing the series in five games, there is a case to be made that the mental makeup of this squad might have taken a major hit after that choke job. They have the talent to hang around in the NL West, but are they mentally strong enough to overcome difficult situations?
Gut feeling: The first month of the season will tell us what direction San Diego is heading. If the Padres get off to a hot start and show that 2024 is behind them, perhaps they’ll get into the postseason. However, given the improvements to both the Dodgers and Diamondbacks rosters, I predict a third-place finish in the NL West and a team that falls just short of a wild-card spot.
2024: 80-82 (missed playoffs)
Case for: The Giants have hovered around .500 for the last three seasons and haven’t tasted the playoffs since they won the NL West in 2021. For that to change, they’ll need newly acquired 41-year-old Justin Verlander to find the vintage form that has made him one of the great pitchers of this generation. If Verlander and left-hander Robbie Ray can at least show signs of what made them Cy Young Award winners, then with staff ace Logan Webb, the Giants’ rotation will be very good.
The offense hasn’t been great for quite a while now, but with the addition of former Brewers shortstop Willy Adames, there’s at least one power bat that opposing pitchers will have to work around. If 2024 rookie Jung Hoo Lee can return from shoulder surgery, which caused him to miss most of last season, and his current back issues aren’t a cause for concern, then offensively, San Francisco could surprise.
Case against: A lot of ifs with the starting rotation as well as the bullpen. Their current option to close out games is Ryan Walker, who posted a 1.91 ERA in ’24 after taking over the closer role from a struggling Camilo Doval. Walker isn’t a concern, but Doval had a 2.93 ERA in 2023 and went from being the NL saves leader that year to having an ERA of nearly 5.00 last season. If Doval doesn’t return to form to give the Giants another good end-of-game option and the aging Verlander doesn’t have enough gas left in the tank to finish the season, then given the talent in this division, a fourth-place finish would be likely.
Gut feeling: The franchise should be improved with the addition of Adames alone. But enough to make the playoffs? It’s going to be close, but this feels like a team that is still one or two pieces away from getting over the hump and playing in October. Fourth place at worst and third at best. Either way, no playoffs this year in San Francisco.
2025 NL Playoff Teams
NL East winner: Atlanta
NL Central winner: Cubs
NL West winner: Dodgers
Wild-card teams: Phillies, Mets, Diamondbacks