To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Sonny Gray (STL, RHP)
As always, Sonny does his own thing each year. He’s a unique pitcher with a variety of weapons, rooted in a four-seamer that acts like a 92 mph cutter and sits away from RHB nearly 70% of the time, setting up backdoor sinkers for called strikeouts far more than you’d ever expect. 40% putaway rate, y’all. FORTY PERCENT. Pretty bonkers. With that ability, can you please jam the sinker a little further inside earlier in the count? K thx.
I wish Sonny was able to keep that cut-fastball inside against LHB, but alas, his gloveside location drops to sub 50% levels, likely in fear of hitting batters. It makes the four-seamer less effective than it could be, though he has plenty of help to get them out. His sweeper is oddly the best putaway pitch of the lot, featuring fantastic command under the nitro zone of LHB for a backfoot breaker that collected a ton of punchouts this year. Merged with the backdoor sinker, we can explain Sonny’s shocking strikeout jump to a 30% clip.
I fail to get the sense that anyone believes that strikeout rate to stick and I think I’m in agreement. RHB will be prepped for the backdoor sinker, while the sweeper feel is likely regressing a bit as well. We also just saw the most IP in one year from Sonny since 2019 at 166.1 and it’s not a challenge to imagine him failing to hit 150 IP this year.
There will always be some ebbs and flows with Sonny based on his feel for breakers (it’s not an overwhelming set of fastballs, after all) but it’s a good situation in St. Louis, especially with Arenado expected to stick around at the hot corner. I’m in favor of drafting Sonny as your SP #3/#4 as someone you won’t drop all year, helping your teams when he’s on the mound. Works for me.
Quick Take: Sonny is unlikely to replicate the same 30% strikeout rate but he’s been a consistent ratio arm with the leash for six frames at a strikeout per inning. As long as he’s on the field consistently, he’ll find a rhythm and help your squads, but he’s unlikely to have the same impact as other pitchers we expect to miss time this year.
Erick Fedde (STL, RHP)
Fedde had a moment when he first arrived on the White Sox, was dealt halfway through the season and the book was out by then. His cutter/sweeper/sinker approach to right-handers is far from special (why are his sinkers away and not inside to RHB?) and his sweeper fails to get a large number of whiffs. The breakers are swapped out for a worse changeup against LHB and that’s about it.
Sure, your deep NL-Only leagues will like that he goes every five days and maybe he can keep his ERA under 4.00 if the Cardinals have a strong defense behind him. But in 15-teamers and shallower? You’re better off not trusting the Feddes. Ayyyy, it’s back! Unfortunately, yes.
Quick Take: Fedde may be a rare streamer, though his arsenal provides little to get excited about. This is a volume/Wins play for NL-Only leagues and not a very good one at that.
Miles Mikolas (STL, RHP)
Mikolas hasn’t had a 17%+ strikeout rate since 2022. But he gets innings! Why oh why would you want these innings? Because it’s volume! This is concert volume – 120 decibels of Mikolas deals you long term damage. He throws strikes aplenty with sub 10 % SwStr rates on every pitch and batters him them aplenty. And yet, the Cardinals have no interest in replacing him, nor a clear replacement to speak of, so yay. Have fun ignoring Mikolas in your drafts once again.
Quick Take: Don’t.
Andre Pallante (STL, RHP)
Don’t listen to the classifications – Pallante throws a cutter for a four-seamer and it works wonders at limiting hard contact with an overall 25% ICR, which isn’t too shocking when it’s a 94.5 mph cutter. Mixed with a sinker that actually locates inside (generally) to RHB, Pallante has all the makings of your standard Cardinals starter who relies pitches to contact. There is a slider to RHB and curve to LHB that attempt to be appealing whiff pitches, but I wouldn’t expect them to take off unless he can merge it with the cutter more effectively.
And maybe that’s alright? Pallante is a sneaky 15-team sleeper given his clear skill to get outs with the cutter four-seamer CUTTER and who knows, maybe he’s grown a bit over the off-season to add another skill. Or maybe he’s destined to hover around a 10% walk rate with a 9+ hit-per-nine and shouldn’t be focused on at all. We’ll know early in the year, at the very least.
Quick Take: Pallante’s four-seamer is a cutter in disguise that mitigates hard contact incredibly well at 94/95 mph and creates a foundation for a possible breakout if he’s able to build on top of it. Consider him in deep leagues and monitor his development in 12-teamers as a potential Toby.
Steven Matz (STL, LHP)
Here’s a stat: Across all ten seasons in the majors, Matz has never held a WHIP of 1.20 or lower. Sure, it’s possible this is the season it all comes together, and if that’s the hill you want to die on, knock yourself out. Matz has been trying to force his sinker dominance for ages and while it somehow had an 18% ICR to LHB last year (small sample, y’all), he did so by landing backdoor called strikes, not by jamming them inside. It’s not sustainable.
That sinker fails often against RHB, too, though his changeup shows promise as my favorite offering in his tool chest. Maybe he can lean more into it and turn the corner? Naaaaah, let’s leave the Matz outside the house for others to see.
Quick Take: Why am I still writing these quick takes this far down the rankings?! Matz’ sinker is overused and needs more help than his changeup provides. This ain’t it y’all.
On The Fringe
Matthew Liberatore (STL, LHP)
The good news: Liberatore embraced his slider over his curve to RHB and it fares far better. The bad news: I really don’t like the rest of his arsenal. The four-seamer and sinker feature poor shape and I dislike their approaches to both RHB and LHB.
I imagine we’ll see him starting before too long with something breaking inside this rotation, though I’m not going to jump in when the time comes. Maybe there will be a touch of success rooted in that slider, but it’s just not the full arsenal I want to see from a fringe starter that would make me endure the waiting game.
Quick Take: Liberatore’s slider is a strong offering, but there’s little else to support it, breaking the Huascar Rule and I wouldn’t even rate the breaker as highly as those branded with the scarlet HR. He’s sure to get a shot starting at some point this year and I’ll have to see something new paired with success to take a shot.
Names To Know
Roddery Muñoz (STL, RHP)
Oh hey, it’s Roddery! What are you doing here on the Cardinals?! You had your MLB debut with the Marlins last year, featuring cutters and sinkers gloveside with a touch of intrigue as 95/96 mph four-seamers were sprinkled in upstairs, but it all faded as strikes were hard to find against LHB, while the cutter and slider were punished often by RHB. Sigh. Maybe in your second season you’ve grown a bit across the board? Maybe? I sure hope you can bring a sense of wonder to this highly suspect rotation.
Drew Rom (STL, LHP)
Ohhhhh right! Rom dealt with a shoulder injury all of 2024 and is trying to make his way back in 2025. Cool cool cool. I’m highly skeptical he’ll do so while also carrying upside worthwhile of your fantasy teams (especially with the whole “sinkers side-arm, four-seamers at three-quarters arm angle thing”) but hey, good luck Drew! I hope you force us to download the Rom onto our fantasy teams in the future.
Michael McGreevy (STL, RHP)
We saw McGreevy last year (he even had an SP Roundup headline!) and, uh, he’s kinda great? Maybe? He’s not a guy that will blow you away, but his variety of pitches without leaning into his four-seamer (phew! It’s has terrible shape) makes him a crafty pitcher who could develop in the classic Cardinals mold. The cutter and sinker play off each other well, the changeup has promise against LHB, and the slider had a near 20% SwStr rate to RHB in the small taste we got last year. You might have a sleeper pick here. Let’s see how the Cardinals treat him in camp and take it from there – just be aware, the ceiling feels a bit limited but I can see future Toby/Holly here. It’s that kind of mold without an overpowering heater or filthy breaker (the slider isn’t…right?).
Gordon Graceffo (STL, RHP)
We saw Gordon for a start and a relief appearance last year and I’m left with a lot of ehhhhhh. I’m not a fan of his four-seamer at all, but the breakers at least looked pretty with some potential in the changeup too. Maybe with more starts he can become a secondary-first arm and make this work? I’m not holding my breath.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Tink Hence (STL, RHP)
Yooooo, Hence is pretty dang fun. He throws mid-to-upper 90s with a filthy changeup (most of the time) + a developing breaker that I hope turns into upper 80s instead of low-to-mid 80s. I care a lot more about Hence than Quinn Mathews and the moment he gets the call, you should give him a spec add after boasting a 16% SwStr rate in twenty Double-A starts last year with just an 8% walk rate. That’s class.
Quinn Mathews (STL, RHP)
I’ve been pretty down on Mathews this offseason, but I’m starting to understand the hype a little better. Mathews obliterated Double-A in August, including 34 strikeouts across three of four starts before getting promoted to Triple-A where he…fell on his face. His first three games tallied 13 walks before a solid outing on the 19th, but it’s why I’ve been anti-Mathews. The sole data I had (Triple-A) was mostly him at his worst. With a 1.3 HAVAA at 94/95 mph, a back-foot slider to RHB and a 60 grade changeup per Eric Longenhagen, I can see it. I wouldn’t be shocked if he found his footing in Triple-A early in the year and catapulted into the rotation by summer, where he’d be an auto-add in 12-teamers. It all depends on the data looking solid in Triple-A this April and May, of course.
Tekoah Roby (STL, RHP)
Once an interesting prospect, Roby hasn’t progressed a whole lot as he’s endured injuries aplenty. He’s more of a kitchen-sink arm than an overpowering one and unless he shoots up through the ranks this year due to significant growth, I’m going to pass whenever he makes his debut.
Cooper Hjerpe (STL, LHP)
Oh boy we have a true southpaw side-armer over here. He was able to go two straight outings without allowing a hit but has control problems and has already had a pair of injuries since getting drafted in 2022 with just four starts under his belt in Double-A, making me highly suspicious he’ll make an appearance this season. He’s apparently around 90 mph with a sweeper from the left side and it could very well work, but the control problems merged with the cross-body mechanics have volatility written all over it. Y’all know I dislike cross-body left-handers based on their lack of reliability. I’ll be excited when he debuts and I hope he’ll have it figured out by then.
Sem Robberse (STL, RHP)
He exists and may be called upon at some point to make a start or two, but he isn’t anything that I’d chase in 12-teamers once he gets the shot. There just isn’t anything all that special…? The four-seamer is just 91 mph and doesn’t wow, and maybe the cutter and slider can hold the fort, but why risk it? You can do far better.