To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Corbin Burnes (ARI, RHP)
Once again, we saw a “down” year for Burnes despite a sub 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. But the strikeouts! Yes, I know. 241 in 2022, 200 in 2023, and just 181 in 2024. That’s not elite, that’s your SP #2. And yet, I’m in for 2025 for a few reasons. First, the Diamondbacks are a great team to pitch for – they generally let their veteran starters run deep into games, Wins are ripe for the taking, and their team defense is exceptional (2nd in OAA as a team last year). Burnes should flourish in Arizona.
I also want to emphasize that Burnes fixed his cutter in September. The pitch held a 9% SwStr rate for most of the season until the end of August – when it woke up for a 15% SwStr and a massive jump in vertical break – five extra inches that helped get the dang thing low over half the time. FINALLY. That cutter has always been the pitch for Burnes and after struggling to get the right feel for it all season, Burnes made a tweak and the pitch led him to the finish line start after start. That said, I wouldn’t expect a 30% strikeout rate, but 23%? Pfffft, that’s the old Burnes. Like Wheeler, I see a great floor with 25%+ strikeout ability and despite all the depth we’ve been praising in this year’s SP class, Burnes is one of the rare few with an excellent floor across the board. Welcome to the Top 5 SP.
Quick Take: Burnes’ improved cutter + higher slider reliance against RHB gives me all the reason to trust him in 2025 for 200+ strikeouts and similar ratios. There’s a touch of work left with the change and curve to LHB, but the repaired cutter makes me optimistic for a strong 2025 ahead with a great defense behind him.
Zac Gallen (ARI, RHP)
Gallen has never quite made sense to me across his last few seasons. His four-seamer isn’t a dominant offering, instead relying on it to land in the zone for called strikes to set up his Deathball curveball (sorry The Bear, Gallen’s hook deserves the title more than you). And his breaking ball consistently sits among the leaders in loLoc% and O-Swing% as it looks just like the heater out of his hand before falling into the dirt.
But outside of that? It gets tough. The changeup goes in and out, the slider/cutter makes appearances and isn’t what you want it to be…especially not a 55% strike rate slider that mostly appears early in counts. Pair that with massive drops in strike rates for his four-seamer to both LHB and RHB and there’s your massive walk-rate jump that led to a 1.26 WHIP.
The benefit of Gallen is his consistent volume with a reliable 24%+ strikeout rate for a winning team. The downside is the struggle with his arsenal. Can he continue to induce such extreme success on his out-of-zone curveball? (A sub 30% zone rate with a 66% strike rate is masterful.) I fear his four-seamer will continue to get worse, not better, struggling to find a rhythm once again as he induced a horrid 47% ICR with fastballs last year. That said, he’s displayed the ability to adapt in-season and has better command than the walk rate would suggest. There’s more concern with his raw ability than the names inside the Top 30, but I have to give him more credit than the risks in the Cherry Bomb tier of the 40s as I don’t expect you to drop Gallen all year.
Quick Take: Gallen’s curveball has been the provider for years and the supporting cast was as weak as ever in 2024. Gallen needs to find more strikes with his slider and fastball while getting drop back on his changeup if he’s to flirt with acedom again. At the very least, hefty volume with double-digit Wins and 170+ strikeouts are still here if you can endure the ratio anxiety.
Merrill Kelly (ARI, RHP)
A mild teres strain sidelined Kelly for plenty of the season, then September brought a hamstring and calf cramps. Not a fun time for Kelly, who saw his ERA dip due to worse LOB% luck and a few more HRs. Otherwise? He’s kinda the same guy. He still has a great defense behind him, a questionable approach to LHB that relies heavily on his changeup (60% strike rate is toeing the line…) without much support, and a fascinating blueprint for RHB.
Kelly lands cutters at 90 mph down-and-away, then surprises batters with a four-seamer just inside the zone at two strikes, inducing a weak flail of a swing after batters believed it was the cutter and understood too late that it would stay in the zone. It’s a highly difficult approach to sustain throughout a year, but Kelly did it often last year and I have to tip my cap.
But yeah. Not sustainable. The slider is still a solid pitch to RHB as well, I’m concerned about his struggles with LHB and his four-seamer/cutter approach that has such a small margin for error. Super cool, of course, but brings skepticism from yours truly. With three seasons of a sub 1.20 WHIP (even with his shoulder problems!) and a small sample that brought a 4.00+ ERA, you can consider Kelly the ultimate Toby type for the year, especially in 15-teamers where his volume is more important than shallower formats.
Quick Take: Kelly is safe. He has great command and enough interesting weapons in his arsenal to propel productive ratios and Wins with the Diamondbacks at his…back, even if the strikeouts are unlikely to flirt with a 25% clip again.
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI, LHP)
Are y’all okay if I just say I don’t want to deal with Erod? I generally want to raise Arizona starters up based on their defense (even without Walker) and can see a strong argument that Erod didn’t have a normal off-season in 2024 and should be the man the Diamondbacks signed him to be this year. On the other hand, his changeup strike rates are not what they need to be, his feel for spin is meh, the sinker doesn’t jam LHB, and I don’t think he can sneak four-seamers backdoor to LHB forever.
An odd skill is Erod’s refusal to walk more or fewer batters than 8% each season, which makes his WHIP dependent on his H/9 each season. He was unlucky for a 10+ last year and that mark should come down, but will it come far enough not to drag down your 12-teamers? What about 15-teamers? His days of 23%+ strikeout rates are likely in the past, too, and I’m not interested in the inefficient arm unless he’s on a hot stretch and sitting on the wire. Maybe if he comes out of camp hurling bullets we can steal a few Wins n’ whatnot, but even in Quality Start leagues, I’m not sure he can do much better than a 50% QS rate.
Quick Take: There is a glimmer of hope that Rodriguez can find a groove now that he has a healthy off-season and regular ramp-up, but he’s displayed volatility across his career. The changeup doesn’t dominate, the four-seamer and sinker have moments before getting smack, and his cutter/slider fails to instill fear to LHB. Take an early flier in deeper leagues and hold off in 12-teamers.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI, RHP)
Many people smarter than me adore Pfaadt and want to target him this year. Me? Ehhhhh, I can understand some of the logic, but I’m not fully there as I believe it’s banking on potential development that we know nothing about. But his horrible luck! Yes yes yes, Pfaadt was unlucky last year. His LOB% was an atrocious 64.5% reserved only for our greatest enemies that propelled his 4.71 ERA, but there is some truth to it. Pfaadt’s extreme groundball sinker will inflate BABIP more than others, he still has some HR problems (1 –> 13 HRs allowed on sweepers last year?!), and his attack against LHB is rough, y’all. The changeup is not coming along and we know sweepers don’t work well against opposite-handed batters. That leaves his four-seamer/sinker combo to do a whole lot more than it should.
That combo is pretty cool against RHB, though. Pfaadt does a brilliant job splitting the two over the plate in both usage and location, leaning into his sinker’s exceptional drop and high four-seamers to return plenty of flyballs (without vert!) and 70% grounders on sinkers. I don’t love it – if batters guess correctly, the pitches themselves aren’t all that great…hey, HRs! – but when he’s commanding it all, he cruises.
But against LHB, that combo isn’t nearly as good. The four-seamer is scattered around and returned a 45% ICR with a low SwStr rate, while the sinker was tossed just 13% of the time for a 48% ICR. They got hit. Everything got hit by LHB.
So yes, Pfaadt did get unlucky last year. It’s possible his FIP tells an accurate story, though I see an elevated BABIP and somewhat “unlucky” LOB rate being the life Pfaadt is destined to live with his LHB struggles and heavy grounder tendencies. The fella needs something new instead of relying on stellar command for a stretch to bring his ratios back to decency. It’s too much to ask for a pitcher who could actively hurt your team if left alone for the full year.
Quick Take: If Pfaadt can figure out his LHB problem or get into a command rhythm for an extended period, he could fall close into Holly territory. However, Walker’s removal at 1B may keep the BABIP still high even with normalization + I’m struggling to determine what Pfaadt does to fix his time against LHB. That’s too much risk for me in 12-teamers.
On The Fringe
Jordan Montgomery (ARI, LHP)
Soooo is Montgomery actually going to toss some innings for the Diamondbacks this year? With Nelson as the SP #6 (you know, the guy who was arguably the Sneks best starter in the second half), The Bear doesn’t have a spot at the moment and you have to imagine many teams will run into SP depth issues in March when an injury appears out of nowhere. In fact, that’s what happened to the Diamondbacks last year that got Montgomery signed to his contract in the first place.
Let’s say that happens and JorMont heads to another squad. It would be safe to assume a few things. 1) He’s in the rotation out of camp. 2) He’s trust to go every five days with a sizeable leash. 3) It’s not for a tanking team. That present Montgomery as an interesting Toby target for 15-teamers if not even 12-teamers when the time comes. After all, Montgomery was regarded as such (if not more) before last year and it’s pretty clear his lost season snowballed after his lack of smooth ramp up to the season.
The differences between 2023 and 2024 aren’t that egregious, save for a 1.5-mph drop in velocity that felt normal in the beginning, but it didn’t rise as the year went on, sitting 92/93 only when he transferred to the pen. Yikes. Meanwhile, the curve was hit more by LHB, the changeup was hit harder by RHB with some poor luck, and voila, that’s JorMont.
Before last year’s fall from grace, I’ve considered Montgomery a feel pitcher. He gets into grooves where he can locate his change and curve effectively without letting his sinker get punished. We saw that when the Yankees traded him to the Cardinals, and with the Rangers during his World Series run. Don’t rule out The Bear waking up from hibernation for lovely production at some point, but until he’s traded, I’m not touching him. I think we’ll have to wait until he gets back into form once entering a new clubhouse and the reward for our patience is just another 50 rupees. I already have 3,000 rupees dangit!
Quick Take: Don’t overlook Montgomery in your deeper leagues as I expect his ADP to rise once the Diamondbacks find a suitor before the season starts. What you’re likely getting back is a Toby who will have his stretches of production merged with oh-so-boring games of inefficiency. Great for deep leagues, meh for 12-teamers.
Ryne Nelson (ARI, RHP)
I really want to say that Nelson is legit and deserves all the success but…does he? The fella hurled 60%+ four-seamers during his fantastic ~3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP run from July 1st through the end of the year and it doesn’t quite add up. Eno and I talked about him on an episode of The Craft and nearly said in unison “I don’t get it!” referring to Nelson and his four-seamer in the zone, especially when its ICR marks aren’t elite. That heater was smacked by LHB a ton during the stretch with a changeup that didn’t do nearly enough and the cutter helped but wasn’t stellar.
The slider is too slow at 83/84 mph to be a major whiff pitch, either, and I don’t quite get it. The 17+ inches of iVB at 95 mph is a good foundation, absolutely, but it doesn’t quite translate to the success he’s had, especially without a major supporting cast.
I’ll be watching Nelson this spring to see if his 91/92 mph cutter can do more inside the zone and hopefully convert to a higher SwStr rate this year, especially if he can command it with his four-seamer for proper pitch separation, preventing batters from discerning which offering is heading their way. There’s also the whole “he doesn’t have a spot and the Sneks don’t want to go six-man” thing, though these things normally figure themselves out in time. I think we can let Nelson go in drafts unless we see legit growth in his arsenal this spring and a clear hold on a rotation spot.
Quick Take: Nelson’s late success late year doesn’t seem fully real and he doesn’t have a rotation spot after the Diamondbacks signed Burnes. There could be another gear for his four-seamer and cutter to legitimize his success in 2025, but I’d let us determine that at the beginning of the year instead of during the draft.
Names To Know
Drey Jameson (ARI, RHP)
I remember when it was Jameson vs. Ryne two years ago and Jameson’s TJS in April made Ryne a winner by default. We should expect Jameson to return to the club as a reliever, leaning into his 97+ mph heater and filthy slider out of the pen. It makes all the sense given Jameson’s lack of whiffs on the fastball (blame the super low 5.8 feet of extension that makes it more like 95 with poor shape!) and it could allow Jameson to push the heater a little more than he would as a starter to give him a stronger one-two punch.
But maybe he starts again and has more than just the filthy slider and ineffective velocity? Who knows, maybe he’s found a changeup, a better delivery to get more out of the fastballs, or something else entirely. When you throw hard and have a whiff-heavy slider, fantasy managers should be watching. Let’s see what happens.
Yilber Diaz (ARI, RHP)
We saw Yilber in the majors last year and he’s certainly better than the other depth options past the main starters, though I’m not falling in love with Diaz’s low whiff four-seamer (even at 95/96 mph!). The slider’s massive gyro drop is interesting if he can spot it, while the curve is good but not a dependable pitch that it needs to be if he’s three-pitch with a whiff-resistant four-seamer. He should get more chances this year and in NL-Only leagues he may be worth it, but I want more from Yilber’s heater if I’m to trust the success of an 83/84 mph slider.
Blake Walston (ARI, LHP)
He’s a lefty without a good changeup to RHB and a sweeper that can work against LHB, but sits 91 mph and will struggle if given proper starts unless all the pieces are working properly. Wait to see when Walston is thrown in to cover some starts before we make a move.
Tommy Henry (ARI, LHP)
Two first names. But…I got nothing. Neither does Tommy, sadly. It’s 90 mph from the left side without a stellar changeup and the sinker inside to LHB is meh. Poor fella. I know. It can’t be easy.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Christian Mena (ARI, RHP)
We saw Mena for one game of three innings last year, and it gave us a taste of what he can do – 100th percentile velocity CURVEBALL at 87/88 (84/85 across the minors) which is all kinds of dope and reminds me a touch of Glasnow. He also had nearly seven feet of extension (Glasnow-lite?) at 95 mph…but 93 mph in the minors. Huh. I’m curious to get more data from Mena, hoping he can wrangle the four-seamer to get the zone more often and stick at 95+ while leaning into that hard curve and a legit sweeper saved for RHB. There’s also a sinker he tries to go inside to RHB with (great if he can keep the high extension and 95 mph) and a changeup he needs to polish as he currently gets too much on the side of the ball. He’s an interesting one to keep an eye on this year.
Yu-Min Lin (ARI, LHP)
He’s a 90/91 mph southpaw with a good changeup and big ol’ curve. I’m awfully worried about the effectiveness of that heater, but if his command of the slowball is legit + the curve can take down LHB, then this can work. He has just one game in Triple-A thus far, making him a possible promotion later this season with a little more seasoning in Triple-A (hopefully with more velocity?) and when he gets the call, I’d prefer to wait and see how this translates to the bigs.