To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Cole Ragans (KCR, LHP)
PEW PEW PEW. Do I like Ragans more or less this year? I was hyped last year by his cutter and slider that each took a step back across the season, though Ragans’ heater and changeup set a foundation that created a stud season without his best arsenal. That four-seamer came in at exceptional velocity and elite horizontal movement, though there is a touch of worry after it dropped from 96+ mph to roughly 94 mph in the second half. Ragans outlines it as a mechanical problem with his lower half, which may be as simple as general fatigue across his first year of a full workload. A southpaw’s best friend is a reliable changeup and Ragans’ slowball obliterated RHB at a 28% SwStr rate while maintaining a fantastic 65% strike rate. It’s legit.
I really hope we see the cutter and slider rebound in the year ahead. Ragans’ curve is more of a surprise pitch to land called strikes, which puts heavy reliance on the slider against LHB. Ragans often spiked the pitch and returned a horrid 54% strike rate against LHB – especially troubling with its 34% usage against them. Ah, so that explains the walk rate. Sure does. Considering Ragans has expressed his desire to throw more strikes this year, I’m optimistic that 2024’s near 9% walk rate will fall to close to 7%, possibly leading to fewer strikeouts and a touch more walks, though the overall production should be a tick better.
And the cutter? Right. Ragans infatuated me in 2023 by mixing the pitch incredibly well with his fastball against RHB, but it took a step back last year. It was still there at times, but its ICR nearly doubled and I still believe there’s more to squeeze out of the pitch, especially when paired with the lively heater.
There is some injury risk after tossing 186.1 IP in 2024 without any history nearing that mark, though who doesn’t have injury risk these days? Ragans is expected to toss 90-100 pitches every five days with elite strikeout ability and a path toward lowering his walk rate (and thus his WHIP). Let’s ride this again, y’all.
Quick Take: Ragans’s fastball/change combo lays a lovely foundation for his slider and cutter to take steps forward in 2025. Matched with a heightened focus on finding strikes and attacking batters, Ragans looks poised to carry a fantastic floor with room to grow into a potential Top 3 starter in the majors.
Seth Lugo (KCR, RHP)
After such a fantastic sleeper season, I’m impressed that the fantasy crowd does not believe Lugo can dominate for another season. That doesn’t mean he should be ignored in drafts, though. Lugo’s deep pitch mix allowed him to dial back his four-seamer to RHB (it’s easily his worst offering) and favor curves, inside sinkers, sliders, and whatever Uncle Joe has in his kitchen sink instead to great effect. He still has difficulties with LHB (guess what, maybe throw more of that cutter that worked so well inside?) and they should bother him again in 2025, but is that enough to ignore Lugo? I don’t think it is.
The curve still misses bats, walks are a rarity, Kansas City is a great place to pitch, and the ERA is highly unlikely to get to a point where you consider dropping Lugo. He’s a safe ratio arm who is clinging onto his Holly title, hoping to showcase another 22%+ strikeout season to do so. He’ll help for the full season and that’s typically hard to find past pick 150 ADP. Yeesh, there is so much SP depth this year.
Quick Take: We all know regression is coming after Lugo’s miraculous 2024 campaign, but his deep arsenal, which includes a whiff-heavy curveball, should return a productive and reliable starter for the full year. Consider Lugo for a stable foundation if you’ve chased riskier starters earlier in our drafts.
Michael Wacha (KCR, RHP)
Wacha doesn’t get enough love for three straight seasons of sub 3.40 ERAs and sub 1.20 WHIPs – probably because he doesn’t wow us with legit velocity or big breaking balls. Nay, he does it the Hoffman way – absurd changeup after absurd changeup.
I’ll continue to have some skepticism that he can stave off LHB for a full season, but alas, the man finds a way to weave his variety of offerings around the zone all in an effort to get back to the changeup and take em down. I don’t think I’ve seen a pitch used over 25% of the time to both LHB and RHB return a 27% ICR or lower with strike rates above 66%. It really is that good.
Wacha is the perfect Toby. He’s unlikely to flirt with a 25% strikeout rate (possibly sit at 20% again), but he suppresses home runs and generally walks few enough batters to not let an elevated hits per 9 like last year’s 8.3 clip turn into an inflated WHIP. You’ll be bored along the way and consider dropping him plenty, but those in 15-teamers and deeper will set and forget. He’s set up for a date against the Guardians as the SP #3 on opening weekend and you may want to snag him just for that game before chasing a flier who starts one of the next two days.
Quick Take: Wacha is a safe Toby for 12-teamers rooted in one of the best right-handed changeups in the bigs. Don’t expect strikeouts and you’re bound to get bored and uneasy with him on your squad, but you’re allowed to move on if he isn’t cutting it. A Toby in all respects.
Michael Lorenzen (KCR, RHP)
Lorenzen is a dude who tries. He really tries. He’s got all the pitches you’d ever want, but none of them are what you’re looking for. Watching Lorenzen pitch is like scanning a diner menu and realizing you don’t want to eat any of it. Sure, the changeup can be pretty at times, but it ain’t reliable and is more of a chase pitch in two-strike counts than something like Wacha’s plan of “get me to the Changgggeup!” (Bonus points if you read that like Arnold). I dig the cutter to LHB as he aims to jam them inside, I hate how he can’t actually get the sinker inside to RHB, and even he elected to turn away from Dancing With The Disco after realizing his slider simply isn’t very good. It turns Lorenzen into a deep league Toby and a rare streamer for the majority of us in 12-teamers.
Quick Take: The fastballs are pedestrian and his breaking pitches have moments but lack the electricity to push him into a considerable add for most leagues. Maybe for a weekly stream here and there, but even then I’d have low expectations.
On The Fringe
Kris Bubic (KCR, LHP)
Snip snap snip snap, Bubic has toyed with our hearts over the years and now seems like the best time to be interested. Bubic returned from TJS and spent time in the pen last season showcasing 93 mph with stellar marks on all pitches to both handed batters. Changeups taking down RHB, sliders taking their job seriously against LHB, and the four-seamer surprising for whiffs upstairs late. Now that he has a clear path to be SP #5 in Kansas City, we’re all curious if he can keep the gains across five or more frames consistently.
I have a few concerns. First, velocity typically drops shifting from pen to rotation and we’ve seen Bubic’s four-seamer fail when it falls to 91 mph as it was often before he underwent TJS. We’ve also some arms keep most of their velocity gains when transitioning to the rotation (Garrett Crochet, Grant Holmes, etc.) though I’d be cautious here.
I’ve also made a habit of berating (kindly, of course) Bubic for his inability to land his changeup down with any regularity. It floats too high or sails armside off the plate and while it was productive last season, I still need to see him do it across multiple starts.
That said, I need to express my excitement for Bubic’s new slider that he introduced in 2023 and kept in 2024. It takes down LHB far better than the old curve and with a legit weapon to both LHB and RHB, the four-seamer simply has to survive to make this work. Bubic also added three inches of extension, allowing for a flatter release to 1.2 HAVAA with his four-seamer, on top of extra cut-action and vertical break to the pitch. This isn’t the Bubic of old, y’all. But the changeup…? OKAY A LITTLE OF THE OLD BUBIC. (Bubic actually went 60%+ Low Location on the changeup in his ultra-short 2023 sample and in his 27 relief appearances, far better than his 40-50% clips of old!)
Keep an eye on Bubic plenty during the spring. If the four-seamer is sitting at least 92 mph and he’s comfortable with both sliders and changeups, I’ll be heavily considering him as an SP #5 flier. Does that mean you’re drafting him? Ideally, no. I’d see Bubic as the guy I pick up to replace the SP who started opening weekend. Considering he’s currently going around pick #400 and is far from a big name, I imagine he’ll slip past many in your standard 12-teamers. Deeper leagues? He should be drafted well before then given a decent spring.
Quick Take: The fifth rotation spot is Bubic’s to lose with Marsh’s setback and should be monitored closely in the spring. If he’s sitting 92 mph with solid changeups and sliders, he could be a fantastic sleeper for a solid strikeout rate and good ratios on a possible playoff squad.
Alec Marsh (KCR, RHP)
Marsh is entering camp with shoulder tightness, which isn’t abnormal for the spring as pitchers warm up the ole soup bone, but it does put Bubic on the fast track for the SP #5 spot. Marsh has moments when his slider is cooking and can surprise batters with his four-seamer for punchouts at a much higher rate than you’d expect (28% putaway rate?!), but sadly, that’s the end of his praise. I’d be irate to say the least if the Royals elected to toss Marsh into the rotation over Bubic given Marsh’s lack of explosiveness or ceiling and if Marsh finds a way, I’d refrain from getting him close to my fantasy teams. Don’t get suckered in by a game where he demolishes RHB with the slider and heater. It isn’t meant to last.
Quick Take: Marsh has a solid slider that works as it should against RHB and a strangely effective four-seamer against RHB for punchouts, but a poor approach to LHB, leading to wildly inconsistent performances, especially when he isn’t at his best against RHB. Even if he finds regular starts, I’d be ultra cautious.
Daniel Lynch IV (KCR, LHP)
If you squint, you can see how this could work for Lynch as a starter. He did succeed in the small 43.1 IP sample last year with a 3.32 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, after all. He does so with a slider that is commanded well, but its lack of movement prevents a higher O-Swing from turning it into a 60%+ strike pitch or preventing demolition when floated over the plate accidentally. The changeup is arguably his best offering as a RHB silencer, which still has refinement left with its execution.
The sinker is saved for generally jamming LHB and the four-seamer is…bad. I don’t see Lynch, The Starter surviving with that four-seamer utilized over 30% of the time (let alone the 37% last season) unless his slider and changeup take even more steps forward this year. I don’t buy this turning out well save for a possible hot stretch at one point of the year and even then, I’d be hesitant to dip my feet into the clear water, expecting a fish to appear out of nowhere. But it has no teeth! YOU DON’T KNOW THAT!
Quick Take: Lynch is doing his best to put together a proper LHP arsenal, but his poor four-seamer and lack of true filth are holding him back. I’m skeptical he can turn into a fantasy-relevant arm in 12-teamers, let alone 15-teamers.
Names To Know
Kyle Wright (KCR, RHP)
Wright hasn’t pitched since 2023 after getting shoulder surgery to repair a torn capsule and he’s a touch behind his peers ramping up in spring training. I’d also reckon he’ll take longer to get up to full strength than others given his long time away from the game, which has me treating Wright like a potential waiver add after his first start of the season. I have low expectations here – we saw a sinker/curve arm during his breakout 2022 campaign that struggled against LHB – and let’s play it slow.
Jonathan Bowlan (KCR, RHP)
Bowlan’s best skill is a four-seamer with legit iVB that gets more expected vertical break than what you’d expect at his arm angle and I hope he can push it to 60%+ high location moving forward. And he throws a sinker inside to RHB! And has…decent sliders and curves? Hmmm, there may actually be something here if he can consistently get that heater upstairs (it really is sneaky good upstairs at 95/96 mph). You may have another Royals sleeper here…Suitman whispers into my ear The Royals moved him to the bullpen in Triple-A during the summer? Oh. WELP. If the Royals elect to stretch Bowlan back out and he flexes good command upstairs with serviceable breakers, y’all know I’m gonna pay attention.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Ben Kudrna (KCR, RHP)
He looks like a fastball, slider, and splitter arm at low-to-mid 90s velo and he struggled plenty after making the jump to Double-A, but finished the year strong with a great 0 ER, 9 K performance. There is some excitement in there, but I think we’re a little ways away until we fully know what we’re getting. I need some Triple-A data first.
Luinder Avila (KCR, RHP)
He’s a strange one. Four-seamers and cutters at nearly the same 93/94 mph velocity and cut-action movement + sliders and curves…at nearly the same 81/82 mph velocity and movement. He’s not a strikeout guy and more of a pitch-to-contact, which didn’t work out well for him in Double-A, nor the sole Triple-A start in September. He’s not a guy to target for fantasy.
Noah Cameron (KCR, LHP)
Cameron is my favorite of the Royals prospects and it’s all because of his super-high PLV changeup. The southpaw spots it well and is sure to make RHB uncomfortable in the majors by flexing the pitch, while his big curveball can be used to get called strikes and fall under the zone to both LHB and RHB. The four-seamer doesn’t come with any exciting metrics, but it does spot well above the changeup, amplifying the deception between the two. I do wonder if his cutter can take a step forward to help mitigate damage against RHB and act as a silencer to LHB, but the changeup and curveball command alone makes him someone of note when he gets the shot. Not an auto-add in 12-teamers without a reliable strike pitch to both LHB and RHB (that’s only the questionable four-seamer for now), but a possible 15-teamer play.
Chandler Champlain (KCR, RHP)
He’s 93/94 mph with a fastball that doesn’t come with elite precision or shape, though he has a solid slider that he’s able to spot gloveside frequently. The changeup and curve have moments but leave a bit to be desired and it leaves a pitcher without enough going for him to lead me toward an endorsement for your fantasy leagues in 2025.