Expected SP Schedules Week 19-20: Hunter Greene Cy Young Szn

Shoutout to Hunter Greene for spinning six shutout innings against the Giants this past Saturday. Greene is now on a 20-inning scoreless streak and has a 0.48 ERA over his past six starts with 46 strikeouts in 37 innings, lowering his season-long ERA to 2.83. He’s turning into the Ace That Was Promised.

Hunter Greene in his last 5 starts:
33 innings, 10 hits, 9 walks, 40 strikeouts, 1 run 😮 pic.twitter.com/wx5SPLdEve

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) August 4, 2024

Could Greene be the NL Cy Young? He’s snuck up to fourth among National League pitchers in fWAR (3.3), just behind Chris Sale, Cristopher Sánchez and Dylan Cease.

Here are the expected starters for the next two weeks of fantasy baseball. And, as always, here’s the glossary:

• (OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
• (DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
• SPOT is used when that game might be projected to be someone different from the rotation’s mainstay. Notes will explain.
• ??? represents an unclear rotational spot, and the notes will explain options.
• (ASB) is the game following the All-Star Break.

Before diving in, let’s quickly look at Nick’s most recent hitting rankings:

 

 

AL East

 

 

• Trevor Rogers didn’t have an ideal start to his Baltimore tenure, allowing five runs over 4 1/3 to the Guardians in a loss, striking out three with three walks.

 

• The Red Sox have posted the league’s highest rotation ERA over the past two weeks (6.61) and now face this brutal schedule. It might be fade time for guys like Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford, who are blowing by career-high innings marks.
• James Paxton made his debut for the 2024 Red Sox last Tuesday, allowing six runs across 4 1/3 innings with five strikeouts to one walk — although three of those runs were unearned

• Yankee starters have struggled over the past fortnight (5.72 ERA, 25th; 0.4 fWAR, 23rd), but the next few weeks could be a good get-right spot.
• Marcus Stroman needs a get-right start, posting an ERA pushing seven over his past eight starts.
• Gerrit Cole is also struggling (5.40 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, -0.1 fWAR).

• Taj Bradley looks really good, posting a 1.35 ERA over his past 10 starts with 71 strikeouts in 60 innings.

• Ryan Yarbrough replaces Yusei Kikuchi in the rotation. He’s posted a 3.74 ERA through 67 innings with the Dodgers this season, but his expected run indicators indicate regression (4.54 xERA, 5.17 FIP, 5.31 xFIP, -0.4 fWAR).

 

 

AL Central

 

 

• I can’t stop thinking about Drew Thorpe and his changeup. After a red-hot start to the year (3.03 ERA in first seven starts), he’s regressed significantly (14 earned runs allowed over his past 5 2/3 innings).

• Joey Cantillo is projected to start the first game of Cleveland’s series with Minnesota (Friday, August 9). The rookie has posted a 7.36 ERA across his first two MLB starts.

• Over the next few weeks, Tarik Skubal and the Motor City Kitty rotation have an easy schedule, including two series at noted pitcher’s parks (Seattle, San Francisco).

• The Royals have a 2.5-game lead over the Red Sox for the final Wildcard spot, making this upcoming series more important than ever.
• Cole Ragans keeps losing velocity — sitting closer to 94 than 96 on his fastball — resulting in a 4.25 ERA over his past six starts.

• Louie Varland is projected to fill in for a start this upcoming Friday (August 9) against the Guardians.

 

 

AL West

 

 

• With Justin Verlander expected to re-join the rotation against Tampa on Wednesday, August 14, it’s tough to project out Houston’s probable starters. The big question is where Spencer Arrighetti fits into the mix — or if he does at all.

• Somehow, someway, the Angels rank 10th in rotation fWAR over the past two weeks (1.0). Shout out to Tyler Anderson, José Soriano and Carson Fulmer, who have pitched to a 3.93 ERA across 50 1/3 innings during the stretch.

• JP Sears shoved in his most recent outing, tossing seven scoreless frames against the Giants with nine strikeouts.

• No rotation has been hotter over the past two weeks, with Seattle starters recording 2.0 fWAR behind a 2.91 ERA and 2.67 FIP.
• Bryan Woo proved he’s fully healthy on Friday, twirling seven scoreless innings with six strikeouts and no walks.

• This rotation doesn’t compute in my brain. No wonder Texas starters have posted a 6.08 ERA over the past two weeks. It likely gets worse with the ‘Stros and Bombers on deck.

 

 

NL East

 

 

• Chris Sale is in the driver’s seat for NL Cy Young, posting a 2.28 ERA over his past nine starts with 73 strikeouts in 55 innings.

• You know what’s amazing? Miami ranks second in reliever fWAR this season, standing as the only team other than Cleveland with over five reliever wins (5.5, Cleveland has 5.6).
• You know what’s predictable? Miami ranks last in rotation fWAR this season, nearly two wins lower than the second-worst rotation (2.0, Cleveland has 3.8).

• Paul Blackburn shined in his Mets debut, spinning six innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts against the Angels in a win. He’ll face his former team next Tuesday (August 9) but must first brave Coors Field.

• The Phillies offense has been in the gutter during Bryce Harper’s slump, and they rank 21st in rotation ERA (4.69) and 24th in rotation fWAR (0.4) over the past fortnight. No wonder they’ve lost six straight series.

• The Nationals have posted a 6.16 rotation ERA over the past two weeks, only better than Boston during the stretch.

 

 

NL Central

 

 

• Shota Imanaga (5.36 ERA across past seven starts) and Justin Steele (12 ER across past 15 innings) are going through regression, sinking the Cubs rotation. Kyle Hendricks has been much worse (6.83 ERA across past six starts, four losses).

• Hunter Greene is closing in on Cy Young votes. In the next two weeks, he faces the Marlins, Cardinals, Blue Jays and Pirates. I’m buying up all available stock.

• Frankie Montas was fine in his Brewer debut, posting five innings of three-run ball against the Nationals with five strikeouts and no walks. We’ll see if he can survive the Braves-Dodgers-Guardians-A’s gauntlet over the next few weeks (doubtful).

• Having a Padres-Dodgers-Padres three-series stretch — with the latter two on the road — should be illegal.
• I’m worried about Paul Skenes, whose velocity has dipped in recent starts. Are the Pirates close to shutting him down? Probably not before he faces the Mariners and Cubs.

• Erick Fedde’s Cardinals debut was unfortunate. He allowed five runs — and two homers — across five innings in a loss to the Cubs.

 

 

NL West

 

 

• Hopefully, Jordan Montgomery can figure it out with the Rockies and Marlins coming up. He’s been a mess since debuting for Arizona (6.37 ERA, 5.33 xERA, 4.65 FIP, 4.78 xFIP,  15% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate across 16 starts and 77 innings).

• Projecting Coloardo’s starters becomes difficult when Germán Márquez is expected to return to the rotation on Wednesday, August 14.

• Walker Buehler is projected to return to the rotation on Sunday, August 18, throwing a wrench in our projections. River Ryan is likely the odd man out.

• If there was ever a time for the Padres to catch the Dodgers in the NL West race, this is it. The rotation should dominate against the Pirates and Marlins over the next nine games.

• Robbie Ray returned from Tommy John surgery last week, and he was suddenly pumping in 95 mph fastballs, up a tick from his career averages. He also found plenty of extra juice on his slider. He dominated the Dodgers (5 IP, 1 ER, 8 K, 2 BB), but the red-hot Oakland A’s got to him (4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 K, 3 BB, 3 HR).