Hey all, welcome to the Hitter List! Before we begin, I am Dave Swan and I’ll be filling in for the man, the myth, and the legend of two adorable newborns, Scott Chu. Even though Scott is away, I vow to keep similar virtues and uphold the criteria. Although, fear not…there will be changes.
The season is only embarking on its third week, and many factors will play a role in determining the list. Some of those factors include injuries, lineup shuffling, breakouts, and slumps. Heck, many teams don’t have six or fewer players with the minimum number of plate appearances required to be considered “qualified”.
So, what’s that mean? Plenty of stats haven’t hit a point of stabilization. Furthermore, we’ll try to block out the variance. In other words, as a general rule, I’m trying to avoid taking too much meaning from the stats themselves.
Let’s get some basics out of the way in terms of how to interpret these rankings. None of this stuff should come as any major surprise, but it never hurts to provide background:
- Will Smith is still appearing on the 7-day IL and there are rumors he won’t be off Thursday. When it comes to concussion injuries, it’s best to be cautious. Conversely, he swings to the end of the early C1 tier. However, he’s destined to go back up. Among all catchers, it’s hard to see past how consistent he has become.
- Matt Chapman soars up the ranks and for good measure. He’s already got 15 barrels and racked up 28 Runs+RBI. Furthermore, his 41.2% IPA% is 7th best in the MLB. Basically, he’s crushing the ball, only striking out at a 22% clip which is far lower than his career norms. If he can keep this up, we might be looking at an MVP season.
- Michael Harris II tumbles 30 spots. Coming into 2023, I wasn’t worried about his ability to put up a 20/20 season, but more so that regression could be coming. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen enough to decide. He gets his big drop from the injury, which he should be back from. Back injuries are tricky.
- Christian Walker’s batting average is south of the Mendoza Line. And while that made me want to drop him down, he’s actually only striking out 18% of the time. Either way, he’s likely going to submarine your batting average and continue to put balls over the fence. Let’s let him stay for this week.
TIER 8
- Ryan Mountcastle went ham this week and provided his fanbase with a nine (yes, NINE!) RBI game. Last year, Mountcastle led all 1B in barrels…and what do you know, he’s doing it again. Maybe #70 is too low?
- José Abreu is off to a cold start. In a home park that you’d want to pull, Abreu has put more into the opposite field (puzzling). Could be a small sample but he could also be in for an explosion of power when that adjusts.
- Jeremy Peña drops down the batting order. Not good for his counting stats but he’s been better since.
- Andrew Vaughn is yet to hit an HR but a 33% HC% and sub-20% K-rate suggest he will put up a great batting average. Just hit more flyballs and the dingers will follow.
- Willson Contreras‘ production hasn’t been there, but the underlying metrics suggest more will come (and a 2 HR game last night helps). Hang in there and don’t make any drastic moves.
- Seiya Suzuki returned with a bang and put one out in his season debut. Since then, he’s made it in the lineup every chance possible, so it’s safe to assume the oblique is a thing of the past.
- Jorge Polanco is playing in rehab games and should be nearing a return. Until then, he stays at the bottom of the tier.
- Fellow Cubs outfielder Ian Happ signed an extension. He leaps up a few spots, behind Ty France. Happ has been an OBP machine and uses his power/speed combination to perform in many ways.
- Lars Nootbaar is back and looks healthy. The outfield is crowded but he immediately came back with an early lineup spot.
- Sean Murphy is turning it on as he gets more playing time. Unfortunately, Travid d’Arnaud will return soon.
- Tim Anderson drops WAY down due to injury. He’ll be out til early May or so. Additionally, it’s a knee injury and that could limit his SB upside.
TIER 12
- Alex Verdugo gets the leadoff spot vs. RHP. The Red Sox just finished an onslaught of southpaws. Expect Verdugo to get lots more ABs.
- Joey Meneses doesn’t have the same mojo. He’s only DHing and not even hitting at a replacement level. He could lose swings at the dish very soon.
- If you’re looking for SBs, Jorge Mateo will aid in that department. With three HRs and striking out at a 17% clip, he should be on every team
- J.D. Martinez is batting in the middle of the lineup vs. LHP and RHP.
TIER 14
- Bryson Stott grabbing some leadoff ABs is extremely helpful at a position with injuries mounting up.
- Speaking of injuries, Bryce Harper is taking reps at 1B? That could be very interesting. However, he’s not coming back very soon.
- Just when Michael Conforto was getting back, he was sidelined with a calf issue. It’s a shame because he’s been productive and appeared not to show many signs of rust after a lost 2022.
- Javier Báez is lost on the field and lost at the plate. Should his recent play continue, I don’t know if he’ll be in the top 150. The strikeouts are gone but the power is too.
TIER 15
- A lot of fresh faces here, the craziest one being Patrick Wisdom. He’s mashing HRs at an alarming rate and keeping the Ks down. It’s early, so be cautious.
- Brett Baty and Anthony Volpe sit in this tier. The talent is off the chart and they simply need more seasoning before moving up. Until we see more, they’re only a stash.
- On the other side of the age spectrum, Andrew McCutchen is showing he can still play ball. Fewer ground balls and more walks are aiding a hot start.
- Mitch Haniger didn’t come back as soon as expected but there is a shot he returns by the weekend. Let’s see how he performs before boosting him up the ranks.
And here’s the Taxi Squad, presented in no particular order:
Taxi Squad
