Top 200 Starting Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball 2023

 

 

 

I updated these rankings on February 7th, 2023. Head here for updated rankings.

 

 

 

 

What is happening!

The fantasy baseball season just ended and before we all hibernate, run the numbers, and produce polished projections, I feel it’s important that I put out what I like to call my “rough draft” of February 2023’s Top 200 Starting Pitchers when my opinions and thoughts of 2022 are still fresh. So I ranked the Top 200 Starting Pitchers for 2022 Fantasy Baseball instead.

What I’m trying to say is, today’s rankings will be vastly different in February. I have no idea how different – if I knew that, they wouldn’t be different – and I’ll use this foundation to discuss players through the off-season, helping me determine who I’m actually higher or lower on than originally thought, while I have yet to do my complete dives into each player’s season. Please don’t hate me for this.

 

Rankings Philosophy

 

It’s important to take a moment to express my general philosophy for drafting starting pitchers. It remains unchanged from years past in case you’ve heard me say this before. My strategy comes in two parts. First:

• 1. Draft THREE starting pitchers I trust to never drop during the season

Essentially, you don’t need to get two of the Top 15 starters to excel. Instead, develop a foundation of three starters who won’t be so bad that they deserve a drop. This year that speaks to the Top 36 starters or so, but creeps into the 50s as well. It doesn’t mean just get three and call it a day, it just means having three starters allows you to have a foundation, even if it’s not including a top 10 starter. I heavily encourage grabbing three and then aiming to fill up the next two or three within that Top 50 if you can – generally, SP value lies in the middle of the draft, anyway.

• 2. Chase upside & pitchers you can drop early instead of middling decent pitchers

This is I Don’t Draft Tobys in a nutshell and is rooted in how much opportunity there is on the waiver wire in April & May. You need to put yourself in a position to take chances on pitchers early in the season as so many of them hit and become legit foundation starters through the year. Make sure your final pitchers are guys you can move on early in April if it’s not panning out, and if you draft middling arms instead, you’ll likely hold onto to a 3.70 ERA guy instead of taking the chance on a true league winner. Don’t be that manager.

Don’t believe me? Here are Starting Pitchers who had a 2022 ADP of #260 or later and could be snagged in your leagues:

 

 

And that’s not even including this rag-tag crew containing many pitchers you were able to grab at specific points of the season for legit value:

 

 

Now you understand. That’s where I’m coming from with these rankings and it’s important to not treat them as a “Best Ball” ranking – you’re not drafting a team you hold for the full year, instead you’re drafting a team with anticipation that you’re burning and churning at the back-end of your roster. It’s the way you win your leagues.

 

Early SP Schedules

 

One element that I often don’t discuss this early when doing rankings is the expected opening weekend schedule. It doesn’t have much of an impact on these rankings, but as we get closer to the start of the year and rotations become clearer after trades, signings, and injuries, it may reveal some late-round targets to sneak in a start or two in your head-to-head leagues that may turn into season-long holds (like Merrill Kelly, Tyler Anderson, or Miles Mikolas this season).

I took the liberty to color code the offenses as well – Red = top tier, Yellow = strong, Brown = average, Blue = weak, Green = poor. It’s mostly based on 2022 and could very well change based on the movement this off-season.

 

Alright, let’s get to it now. Remember, these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

• Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
• Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office. Don’t draft them.

 

Read The Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about my thought process and why I’m ranking guys in a certain way.
• For this edition, I figured I’d be a madman and write a very short blurb about each starter to give you a general feel of my thoughts on that guy and to showcase this isn’t just some random “he doesn’t know this pitcher at all!” ranking. I hope it helps!

 

• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

Tier 1

 

These are the workhorse aces without injury concerns. It’s that simple.

 

1. Corbin Burnes (MIL) – He’ll hint 200 frames again, flirting with 250 strikeouts. It’s the full package and his late-season stumbles were corrected just in time.

2. Gerrit Cole (NYY) – Frustrating to see his 3.50 ERA and home runs were are a larger problem than usual, but even in a “down” year, it was a 1.02 WHIP and 257 strikeouts. The most consistent stud out there.

3. Sandy Alcantara (MIA) – I see 2022 as a peak year, but the skillset is there to cruise comfortably over 200 frames for another season with great ratios. He doesn’t carry the same strikeout ceiling as the other two and the ratio gap will close a bit next year.

 

Tier 2

 

They all have the ability of an SP #1, but how much are we going to see of them in 2023?

 

 

4. Shane McClanahan (TBR) – His increased changeup usage and improved four-seamer elevated him to ace status, though he was a touch of injury concern from September + the Rays are sure to grant him a shorter leash than the rest of the Tier 1/2 crew.

5. Zack Wheeler (PHI) – He endured a few different injuries through 2022, but the skill set is the same as Alcantara’s as a healthy Wheeler goes over 210 innings with stellar ratios and 200+ strikeouts. 52% O-Swing on his sinker is insane.

6. Julio Urías (LAD) – He had diminished velocity at the start of the year, but didn’t hurt your teams in the process and soared in his second-half recovery. It was more of the same from 2021 and while he won’t get pushed over 200 frames like the others, he’s in a perfect situation in Los Angeles to carry you through the year. And imagine if the changeup gets whiffs again…

7. Jacob deGrom (NYM/FA?) – If I’m getting a stud starting pitcher, I want one who I can lock in for more innings than deGrom. He’s the best pitcher on the planet, the only question is longevity.

8. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) – Ole reliable wasn’t so reliable in the first half, from early struggles to Raynaud’s Syndrome sidelining him, but he stuck the landing to be the classic Woodruff we love while adding a premium changeup in the process.

9. Max Scherzer (NYM) – He’s going to turn 39 in the middle of next season and carries the biggest eyebrow raise of the lot in terms of expected degradation. Let’s hope he can survive his bout against father time for one more year.

 

Tier 3

 

They all can be an SP #1, but have warts that prevent them from being a lock.

 

10. Carlos Rodón (FA) – Our injury concerns were ultimately misplaced as the velocity stuck around and he was brilliant. I could arguably put him in the next tier given his dominance, though it still seemingly comes with a touch of haze after tossing 178 frames – is he able to able to go 200 innings?

11. Aaron Nola (PHI) – After an unfortunate 2021, Nola was back to normal this year and collected over 230 strikeouts. In an age where the true workhorse starters are few, Nola is a rock with his elite curveball and precise fastballs. Don’t overlook the change as a strong mix-up pitch as well.

12. Shane Bieber (CLE) – I heavily doubted Bieber’s ability to dominate with diminished velocity (91 mph instead of 93/94 mph in his peak), but he maintained a 25% strikeout rate and stellar ratios across an even 200 innings. The lesson I learned – if a pitcher’s weakness gets, well weaker, does it really matter if his strengths are intact? The slider and curve were business as usual, each boasting a 22%+ SwStr rate.

13. Luis Castillo (SEA) – The move to Seattle worked wonders for Castillo, helping out his four-seamer and embracing his slider as his slow ball was oddly average for a change(up). If Castillo can get his changeup back to his former ways, he could be a top-5 starter, but he could also devolve to his lesser command self, opening the door for a high WHIP and wobbly ERA.

14. Max Fried (ATL) – He did the same thing as last year – start off a little wonky, then turn into one of the best pitchers in the majors. It still remains to be seen if Fried can harness his curve or slider into a legit whiff pitch, but even without it, he pitches enough to help plenty with strikeouts, while the ratios and Wins are oh-so-sweet. One of the safest ratio arms around.

15. Spencer Strider (ATL) – Is this where I end up ranking him in February? The man crossed the 200-strikeout threshold despite tossing just 131.2 innings and it’s absolutely bonkers. His four-seamer is one of the best in the game, landing for strikes over 68% of the time, and he could conceivably get better if he’s able to control his slider more often. Some will call it a fluke, but I don’t think it is.

16. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) – Will Ohtani start 28 games again next year? I absolutely want him to, it seems like a peak amount of volume for him, which makes his ceiling a bit capped than the rest of the tier. That said, his slider is the best slider in the game given how often he uses it and if you’re okay never getting a two-start week from him, you’re never going to bench him.

17. Alek Manoah (TOR) – I’m a little disappointed to see both the slider and four-seamer take a step back in 2022, but our concerns about innings were unwarranted as he nearly touched 200. He can be seen almost as a discount Max Fried with his drop in strikeout rate, though I imagine the whiffs could return given more time on the bump and more feel for the sinker. I don’t think we’ve seen the peak yet.

18. Joe Musgrove (SDP) – Another season, another 181 frames of fantasy production. The strikeouts fell and could return, but even if they don’t, everything else helped massively. We saw the upper gear in the playoffs and if he can unlock it for the majority of a season, that’s a 30% strikeout rate.

19. Kevin Gausman (TOR) – Look, when a player has an extreme season of any kind – good or bad – you should wager it doesn’t stick around. Gausman will not have a record-breaking high BABIP next year and it’s easier to bet on his hits-per-nine dropping than someone else’s walk rate dropping. In short, his WHIP should sit far closer to 1.10 than 1.30 next season and with his incredible strikeout and walk rates while playing for a great team, Gausman should be an SP #2 through the year.

20. Dylan Cease (CHW) – I know, I know. But when was the last time you saw a pitcher flirt with a 2.00 ERA while carrying a 10%+ walk rate? Cease’s 2022 success was fueled by a massive jump in slider usage, while his four-seamer and curve didn’t make the improvements we were hoping for. We saw a bit of a slowdown in the final months and while he’s still an ace, I think he’s the most apparent “risk” of the lot.

21. Yu Darvish (SDP) – These last three of Cease, Darvish, and Verlander are a little more hesitant for me. Cease has the walks, Verlander has the age (and obvious regression), and for Darvish, it’s the career volatility. One year he has his cutter, the other he doesn’t, and despite his soaring September, I can’t overlook the turbulence we’ve seen across his career. I sure hoped he’s a changed man, though.

22. Justin Verlander (HOU/FA?) – Verlander’s four-seamer dropped from a 14%+ SwStr in 2019 to just under 11%  this year, while his slider was great, but not elite. In other words, this year didn’t make sense and mix in age with expected regression and you have a bigger risk than his Cy Young season would suggest. Most of the time when we ask “wait, how is this working?” the answer is “Oh, it actually doesn’t.”

 

Tier 4

 

This is a fun tier of high potential mixed with solid floors. Be careful here – if you load up on too many of these, you could set yourself up for a potential disaster of a season.

 

23. Zac Gallen (ARI) – It’s hard not to be a Gallen Gal after his second-half dominance and while I’m certainly in to grab him in all leagues, he doesn’t possess an elite offering in his repertoire, preventing him from carrying the SP #1 ceiling you want from your SP #2 pick. We saw some life with the curve at the end of the year, though, and if that pitch can land just under the zone next year, well, maybe there’s a chance.

24. Cristian Javier (HOU) – Remember all that stuff about Strider? Javier essentially did the same thing, with a very similar four-seamer and slider combo…in fact, his fastball earned a higher SwStr rate at 15% for the season

25. Tyler Glasnow (TBR) – The stuff is back and isn’t in question for me. It’s just a matter of innings and given how the Rays treat their pitchers over the years, it feels as if the ceiling is capped more than others, not to mention the injury risk still looming.

26. Luis Severino (NYY) – Simply put, he’s back. Health is a little bit of a question, but his four-seamer/slider combo is legit and I’d expect more of the same in 2023.

27. Nestor Cortes (NYY) – I’ve been undervaluing his four-seamer all year and his low arm angle allows it to dominate up in the zone. I’m in for the long-haul after 1.5 seasons of domination.

28. Triston McKenzie (CLE) – I feel so conflicted with McKenzie. The four-seamer performed well, the curveball is getting a ton of whiffs, and the slider…has command issues. In fact, I watch McKenzie and I feel he always had command issues. I sense this year was more of a peak and he’ll fall back down next year, but on the other hand, he could fill out, become more stable on the bump, continue refining and soar next year as well. This is such a tough one.

29. Robbie Ray (SEA) – He struggled at first, adapted a sinker into the mix, and ascended to be the Ray of 2021. The home run problem is still prevalent, though, and it could mean his ERA rises more than you want from an SP #2. Nevertheless, he’s going to help more than hurt and tally the strikeouts you need.

30. Lance Lynn (CHW) – It was rough at first, but Lynn has a flat-out ace after his initial first seven starts with a 2.52 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 26% strikeout rate in 85.2 innings. The fastball has returned and so should your adoration.

31. Clayton Kershaw (FA) – It’s TATIAGA and his slider is still stupid good. How much does he pitch in 2023? Are you willing to chase this instead of a secure solid arm instead? I’m not sure I am.

 

Tier 5

 

We have a mini-tier of “hey, these are great ratios, but aren’t the most exciting kids on the block with legit SP #1 potential”. I generally don’t go for this, but if you’re taking a whole lot of risk early, grab one of these to keep your floor high.

 

32. George Kirby (SEA) – A fantastic rookie season with a phenomenal heater that looks here to stay. The volume with be there, but will the secondary development come with it? It’s the last thing holding him back from acedom and a pick in Kirby could provide dividends if his slider, curve, or change improve over the off-season.

33. Logan Webb (SFG) – He gave you the ERA you expected, but the 1.16 WHIP and 21% strikeout rate were a bit underwhelming. If he can get his slider back to its 20%+ SwStr rate self, the sinker and changeup will do the rest and return Webb to SP #2 form.

34. Framber Valdez (HOU) – We’re all impressed by 25 quality starts in a row, but it returned a 1.16 WHIP as it feels more like a peak than Valdez’s ascension to a ~3.00 ERA arm consistently. He’s awfully close to a 1.20 WHIP season.

35. Logan Gilbert (SEA) – Like his peer Kirby, Gilbert’s four-seamer is the heart of his approach as he lacks a whiff-heavy secondary offering (though, they are effective). There’s hope that he’s changed his slider and curve in the final month of the season and if just one can take the leap, it can spell a breakout 2023.

36. Chris Bassitt (FA) – The man has a wonderful sinker and increased his breaker usage this year that suggests a higher strikeout rate in the future. He’s stable and carries hope of a 180-inning season with good ratios + a near 25% strikeout rate.

 

Tier 6

 

The risks are beginning to appear now. There’s reason to latch onto everyone in Tier 6, but the comfortable shag rug of a floor has been replaced by the questionable wood of your great-great-uncle’s carpentry. It gets harder to trust the longer you go.

 

37. Jesús Luzardo (MIA) – He had 97+ mph and a wicked curve before his injury, then he came back slinging 96 mph…with an elite change, then ended the year bringing back the hook and losing a bit of the slow ball. All in all, we’ve seen the light and Luzardo now has another off-season to flirt with 97 mph again.

38. Nick Lodolo (CIN) – Y’all know I adore Lodolo. His curveball held a 21% SwStr rate this year and his sinker returned a CSW north of 32%, flashing upside when consistently located up in the zone. That said, he’s still developing the ability to command his full arsenal and pitching in Cincy opens more doors to failure than we’d like. This is a risky one, for sure, though he could be the shining light on many teams as well.

39. Pablo López (MIA) – I think 2022 was the down year for Pablo, even if he’s still mostly sporting a two-pitch combo in four-seamers and changeups. It also was one of the more healthier seasons we’ve seen from him and we may have another bark of the shoulder coming at some point next year. The ability for a 3.00 ERA and 25%+ strikeout rate is still there.

40. Kyle Wright (ATL) – I wish I believe Wright was more than just a great curveball, but that’s all I see. There are days when he spots four-seamers up and sinkers armside incredibly well, but it’s live or die based on the hook and it makes me wonder if this was more a season where it came together instead of a true plateau for years to come.

41. Jon Gray (TEX) – It comes down to health, for me. The velocity is there, the slider whiffs are there, it’s just a question if Gray can regularly make his starts without interruption. He was marvelous in the middle of the year (2.56 ERA, 0.98 WIP, 28% strikeout rate across 70.1 IP) and a stretch like that could extend further if he just stays on the dang field.

42. Joe Ryan (MIN) – His four-seamer is legit and I believe the slider has the potential to be a proper complement. Ryan needs more time to get locked in and dominate with the slide piece in his sophomore season and I imagine he can take off quickly if he does.

 

 

Tier 7

 

I’m calling this the “prove it” tier as we all know their ceilings but there are massive question marks with each of these pitchers.

 

43. Freddy Peralta (MIL) – Is he healthy and in rhythm? We didn’t get to see a whole lot of him this year but if he’s sharp in the spring, you might see Peralta rise into the Top 30 SP.

44. Andrew Heaney (FA) – The Dodgers seemingly “fixed” him and I would imagine those skills with his fastball and slider carryover wherever he goes. If he heads to a team that will allow him to throw more than 85 pitches per game, Heaney may jump above Lodolo for me. If he stays in Los Angeles, it might be too much of a headache as they limited his pitches heavily.

45. Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) – We got a taste of McCullers this year and it felt like more of the same – a high WHIP, good ERA, and more than a strikeout per inning. I’m not sure how much I value what I think is innate volatility.

46. Chris Sale (BOS) – Soooooo we’re actually going to see Sale pitch this year, right? Hopefully the heater is closer to its former self instead of the low-mid 90s we saw in 2021, while the changeup aims to not be nearly as hittable. He has a massive ceiling but we may be chasing ghosts of the past.

47. Blake Snell (SDP) – It took a while, but second-half Snell returned as he axed the change (and the curve!) to go four-seamer/slider and it worked, once again, like a charm. The question is if he’ll actually lean into the approach for a full year as he didn’t this season. Oh, and the volatile command doesn’t help either.

48. Frankie Montas (NYY) – His shoulder was a bother even before he was dealt to the Yankees and we’ll likely be waiting all off-season before we hear a proper update about it. If he’s in the rotation on opening day, Montas could be a huge discount on draft day, but keep in mind – Montas relies heavily on his splitter and fastball generating outs for his success. Splitter reliance = volatility.

 

Tier 8

 

What is Tier 8? I don’t know, a little respite before the injury tier that’s clearly a safer play, but not as intriguing or dependable as Tier 6 and without the juiciness of Tier 7. That doesn’t make sense. Just deal with it.

 

49. Charlie Morton (ATL) – It took about six weeks for Morton to find a rhythm in 2021, and it took about nine weeks in 2022. It feels a little foolish to believe Morton is destined to wait until July to suddenly jolt into action in 2023, but I do believe it’s a product of an aging arm struggling to replicate his mechanics every day for a full season. He’s worth the pick, but it may be a massive headache for the long haul.

50. Jeffrey Springs (TBR) – The changeup is so dang good and he executed the BSB effectively throughout the year. Did you realize he had a 2.46 ERA in 135 innings? I imagine he regresses a bit, but with that slow ball and good command, he can still hover a 25% strikeout rate with good ratios – just don’t expect the Rays to let him go too deep into games that often.

51. Jordan Montgomery (STL) – Do I expect to draft The Bear? Not really, but you can’t deny he improved his four-seamer in St. Louis and was a ratio stabilizer. Maybe they can squeeze out even more production for him next year as he pitches in a more comfortable environment than New York.

52. Tony Gonsolin (LAD) – I was awfully late to the party on Gonsolin, believing he needed to get more out of his slider before elevating up The List, yet the man kept producing until the second half (blame Stanton’s ASB home run if you must, I blame, you know, his injury). There’s a thought that all Dodgers pitchers will regress next year when the shift is banned, making Gonsolin’s dominance seem a bit more fragile. I imagine I’m low the guy here, but let that be a statement to the quality of arms inside the Top 50 relative to previous years.

 

Tier 9

 

Here we have a flurry of injured arms + opportunities for redemption. You may want to grab one or two of these if they fall in your drafts as you’ll likely be able to discern their 2023 ability early in the season.

 

53. Jack Flaherty (STL) – I haven’t forgotten Flaherty exists and despite expecting a proper resurgence in 2022, we’re at the point in these ranks where you may as well shoot your shot on Flaherty with four other starters already on your roster. There’s hope here and a healthy off-season could make for a wonderful return to form.

54. Dustin May (LAD) – We know the stuff is unreal, but the command wasn’t ready after returning from TJS. That said, it’s normally the last piece of the puzzle and with another trip to the IL behind him and a proper spring, May could be the 2021 arm we know and love. That cutter and curve can be devastating with his upper 90s velocity.

55. Lucas Giolito (CHW) – Boy was this a lost season for Giolito. He was injured in April and was never able to fully recover, turning him into a bit of a zombie across the summer nights. Simply put, if he’s sitting 91/92 mph throughout the spring, I’m not jumping back in. If he’s 93/94 mph (sitting, not hitting, remember that), then I believe in a return to form.

56. Tyler Mahle (MIN) – He’s finally out of Cincinnati and if his shoulder recovers in full (Wheeler, Gallen, Rodón, etc.) he could vastly benefit from a full year in a new environment. He’s a solid strikeout fill if you went the ratio route earlier.

57. Sonny Gray (MIN) – I was a bit shocked to see Gray ended up with a 3.08 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 2022 as I rarely felt confident he was locked in as the season progressed. He was in the “good, not excellent” grouping for me and I worry that we’ll get more volatility this year with his curve and slider. I imagine getting more flack on this than other ranks because of those excellent ratios this year, but it was his highest SIERA of the last three years and the first time under a 25% strikeout rate since 2018.

58. Kenta Maeda (MIN) – Remember him? It was a difficult 2021 to watch and expecting him healthy for 2023 could bring a return to his ridiculously low 16% hard contact rate in 2020 (even if it was a shortened season, that’s still insane). I’m super curious what we see – at his peak, it was super high O-Swing rates for splitters and sliders + sneaking in fastballs better than any other.

59. Mike Soroka (ATL) – For real this time. I think. He almost made it back in time for 2022 and you have to believe he’ll be there for 2023. We have no idea what that will be, but if it’s anything close to the taste we got at the start of his career, then he’ll be someone to hold all year, even if it’s as a glorified Toby without a stellar strikeout rate.

 

Tier 10

 

It’s more questionable upside with a collection of young potential and big names who want to reclaim older days.

 

60. Reid Detmers (LAA) – First Detmers didn’t have his slider, then he did, and then he did but only kinda. He’s still incredibly young and working on figuring out the majors, but I truly buy that when Detmers has all three pitches working – slider for whiffs gloveside-and-down, four-seamers up, and curveballs for strikes – he’s a legit ace. No idea what we’re gonna get, though. It’s so hard to rank him as I want to believe he’ll take that step forward, but it’s just a leap of faith. I feel required to be a little conservative on that growth and placed him at #60, but I can see myself raising him near the Top 50 before March hits. We’ll see.

61. Hunter Greene (CIN) – You know about the heater and after struggling to command it all year, he really impressed me in the final month of the year by locating it in the upper third with consistency. Pair that with a slider he keeps down constantly and it seems as if Greene is figuring out how to dominate with more reliability. It may take some time into the year before it clicks in full (resulting in some disaster in April) but he’s one of the major upside plays out there.

62. Tylor Megill (NYM) – I’m wearing my Tylord Megill shirt as I write this as he showed up in April with increased velocity (99 mph!) + a legit slider that made him look like a mini-deGrom. He didn’t get a chance to start after, but with most of the Mets rotation heading to free agency, we may see another exciting opening weekend for Megill. He’s a fun chance to take near the end of your drafts as I imagine he’ll go later than this rank.

63. Edward Cabrera (MIA) – The changeup amazed us, the curve had its moments, and he’s throwing upper 90s. The command is in question (and so is a rotation spot…?) but we could all freak out after just one start in 2023. His stuff is wonderful.

64. MacKenzie Gore (WSN) – Before the injury bug hit, Gore was looking like a staple of fantasy lineups in the early summer after his callup. There’s work to be done finding a consistent approach, but his heaters show promise and the shape of his secondaries speaks to a full arsenal to coast through starts. I see no reason why he shouldn’t have consistent starts in the Nationals’ rotation and it may be the year he finally shows up proper.

65. Aaron Ashby (MIL) – I’d be shocked if the Brewers didn’t let Ashby start regularly entering the season and while I love the slider, I’m not sure he’s a finished product yet. The sinker isn’t commanded well and the changeup can be a difference maker, but right now it’s hyper reliant on the slider carrying him and I wonder if we’re going to be frustrated watching him find his balance in 2023.

66. Michael Kopech (CHW) – We know a healthy Kopech is great, but that knee injury is certainly scary. Monitor his spring – if he’s cooking 96+ with good breakers, this could be a lovely season ahead.

67. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) – He would have been in the rotation this year if it weren’t for his injury and given how well the Orioles performed this year, I imagine Grayson could be on the team out of camp. He brings legit AGA potential and I may be bumping him up into Tier 6-8 by the time spring training ends.

68. Drey Jameson (ARI) – This is likely too aggressive, but I loved watching Drey pitch this year. His fastball sits mid-to-upper 90s with a strong breaker for strikes. It worked against solid offenses and across a full year in the bigs we could see him blossom in a comfortable situation in Arizona.

 

Tier 11

 

It’s time for the “okay, they had great seasons but really?!” tier. I guarantee you’re gonna see a lot of these go much higher than these ranks and I prefer not to chase it – there’s a reason most of them came from the waiver wire this season and trust me, there will be more this year.

 

69. Tyler Anderson (FA) – This year was unreal. Anderson hadn’t held an ERA under 4.30 in his career and elects to sit at a cushy 2.57 mark across 178.2 frames this year. Yeah. The changeup usage went up and the Dodgers defense did the rest. Throw him in any other team, he won’t get 15 Wins, won’t beat his 4.09 SIERA so dramatically, and disappoint you with his sub 20% strikeout rate. …or the changeup is fantastic again and he’s a serviceable play all six months.

70. Marcus Stroman (CHC) – The man is consistent and he’ll likely give you a mid-3s (ish) ERA next year with a WHIP you hope is below 1.20. But Nick! If you expect a 3.50 ERA again next year, why is he at #70? Because that mark ranks Stroman as the 65th best ERA among starting pitchers (across the Top 200 in batters faced). Not that amazing now is it?

71. Brady Singer (KCR) – I didn’t see much from Singer this year that was different than what we saw in 2021, despite their dramatically different end results. He still throws sinkers for called strikes and sliders for whiffs, and if the man had both in double digits, he thrives. If either falters, he stumbles. It’s a Cherry Bomb scenario and while I’ll be watching the success from the sidelines at times, the comfort of not dealing with the turmoil will be soothing.

72. Patrick Sandoval (LAA) – Where is that dang changeup? It showed up at the very end of the year, but after anticipating a rise to fame this year, Mr. 32 Whiffs was unable to consistently wield his slider and slow ball, making for a horrendous WHIP and pulled out hair from managers. The stuff is still there, I’ve just run out of faith that the Angels will be able to squeeze out the best from him.

73. Taijuan Walker (FA) – I doubted Walker after his stellar 2021 first half, and it was the right call. I doubted Walker’s early success in 2022 and it…wasn’t the right call. I still feel as if his arsenal is missing a major pitch – his heater sat around 93 mph most of the year and wasn’t the foundation it used to be – and I hate relying on his slider and splitter to steal the show. He’s the kind of guy that your opponent has and it’s the week he goes six frames with six strikeouts and you’re staring at your Ashby disaster in frustration. That’s how it works, y’all. I wonder if he signs with a team that gets us excited.

74. Ross Stripling (FA) – His changeup was remarkable, to say the least, and he seized his opportunity when Toronto needed him most in the second half. I have some concerns about the full approach and if this was one of those “he’s locked into a rhythm” situations where he isn’t worth holding onto over the exciting young arms on the wire. Not a bad filler at the end, especially if he signs with a team that gives him a comfortable rotation spot and an easy first weekend.

75. Miles Mikolas (STL) – I don’t buy it, even if he increased his four-seamer SwStr to 12%. It’s that simple. If you draft Mikolas, he’ll get one of the Jays or Braves the first weekend and you’re not gonna enjoy putting him into your lineup. Maybe take a peek after that, but think about yourself in the first week of the season with so many exciting names who we’ll all be asking “is this a real breakout?!” and you’ll be stuck with Mikolas. Don’t do that to yourself.

76. Merrill Kelly (ARI) – It’s the same thing as Mikolas – Kelly gets the Dodgers to start the year and there’s no way I’m starting him for that, so what’s the point? Kelly was a waiver wire pick that worked out through the year, but I don’t think he’s the kind of pitcher who has learned a major new skill and will replicate a 3.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP season, all thanks to his four-seamer dropping from a .307 BAA to just .215. I don’t think that’s gonna stick.

 

Tier 12

These guys have moments when they deserve acclaim, but can be headaches through the season as you try to figure out what you’re actually getting. The path to their potential is hazy, but they will likely be rostered everywhere entering next year at the backend of rotations.

 

 

77. Tarik Skubal (DET) – If we didn’t have injury concerns about Skubal, I think I’d raise him into the 10th tier at least. He had a ton of success early, fell apart, then hit the IL, with the fastballs improving early and a possible surge with his slider and changeup. There’s tinkering left to do, but I believe he has the weapons required. It’s just about finding a rhythm now.

78. José Berríos (TOR) – The Great Undulater who…didn’t undulate enough the one time I leaned into it. He still showcased the ability to dominate with heaters and curves through the season, it just wasn’t nearly frequent enough. He didn’t have that stretch he normally has to redeem himself and we can’t rule out that this was just one of those seasons. That said, at what point will we feel truly confident in Berríos again?

79. Nathan Eovaldi (BOS) – He was looking like a champ in the first half, then the injuries hit. Back, then shoulder, and when he returned, the velocity…oh boy. This was a guy sitting 97+ comfortably before and he’s down to ~94 mph since. He was able to still produce despite it, but I have my doubts for a full year. Let’s see if the velocity is back in the spring.

80. Domingo Germán (NYY) – I already think I’m too high here as the Yankees are always likely to add another starter to the mix, which would push Domingo out of the rotation. But this is #80, after all, and if he gets regular starts, he could be a solid ERA and WHIP with a strikeout per inning on a winning club. That’s legit and should be heavily considered at the end of your draft if he were to get the Phillies to start the year.

81. José Urquidy (HOU) – Urquidy wrestled with his arsenal throughout the season, swaying between four-seamer focused to kitchen sink. I think there’s a fantasy arm you can hold through the full season here, but I’d rather chase a bigger impact play than Urquidy.

82. Luis Garcia (HOU) – Can we trust his fastball/cutter will carry him through another year? Will the slider be legit once again? Despite landing on a 3.72 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 24% strikeout rate, it didn’t feel incredibly smooth. His slider was worse, the cutter earned fewer strikes, and while the fastball had moments of excellence as he raised its velocity, it fluctuated start-to-start. I don’t like headaches, especially ones that don’t carry top-of-the-line upside.

83. Alex Cobb (SFG) – The poster child of a Statcast darling, if the velocity is still up and the splitter is working in the spring, I can see us testing the waters early in the year…just don’t make it the Yankees series. Maybe against the White Sox, though.

84. Bailey Ober (MIN) – He had that one game of 12 slider whiffs and it was the light we’re chasing for all of 2023. I call him Oberizzi with his heavy high-heater lean and a legit whiff slider opens many many doors. That said, the Twins like to give tighter leashes and without that slider growth, it could turn Ober into a serviceable but not exciting SP option.

 

Tier 13

 

You want some late round fun? Look no further. It’s the point of the draft where you’ve got nothing to lose, so if you’re willing to put yourself at risk (do you even need to start them in their first games?), snag an arm here and see what happens.

 

85. Roansy Contreras (PIT) – I want to like Contreras more, but I worry about his four-seamer. Despite its 95/96 mph velocity, the pitch returned just an 8.6% SwStr rate and allowed a whopping 43% hard contact in 2022. That said, Shane McClanahan suffered with a similar issue on his heater before vastly improving this year, though he has plenty more weapons than Roansy, who just has a slider and a show-me curve. I think there’s still some work left to do and Pittsburgh isn’t the best place to rely on that.

86. Luis Ortiz (PIT) – I see Ortiz and I see a lot of Contreras…except maybe better? They both have the same issue of not getting whiffs with their heater, but Ortiz seemingly does better at avoiding damage (23.3% hard contact rate), though it’s a small sample and we all know how the Cardinals messed him up (that was more of an off-day command wise…which could be a consistent feature). I’m curious to see how he develops and it’s hard not to get a little excited for what he can do with upper-90s velocity and a wicked slider.

87. DL Hall (BAL) – The Orioles made it clear they wanted to have Hall start next year and I’m curious what we get. The fastball is mid-to-upper 90s with a lovely breaker + a solid change, it’s just a matter of polish and innings. This could be maddening to roster early and we’ll likely be talking about him plenty this spring.

88. Trevor Rogers (MIA) – It didn’t work out, I get it. I really do. He’s still young and with health back to normal, if he finds his slider and changeup, Rogers can soar again. Don’t give up on him completely and recognize the hypothetical still exists.

89. Mike Clevinger (FA) – He returned from TJS and didn’t have his breaking stuff like he used to. I’ve kinda given up on it, but who knows, maybe he lands with the Dodgers and they fix it. I like the chance of a young arm like Rogers figuring it out instead of Clev, but maybe that’s just me.

90. Ryne Nelson (ARI) – All eyes were on Jameson, but Ryne tossed cheese as well and turned heads against the Dodgers and Padres. It fell apart in his third outing before heading to the IL with shoulder inflammation. I wonder what we’ll get next year as he powered through with heaters and lacked refinement on his curve and slider, but the talent is interesting and the chance will be there in Arizona.

 

Tier 14

 

Not interested in the risks? Fine, take something a little more stable and who will find spots on many rosters in 2023…and sprinkle it with a few upside plays at the end.

 

91. Eduardo Rodriguez (DET) – We expected great things from Erod and got none of them as he had a rough opening schedule, hit the IL, went MIA, then didn’t have his best stuff when he returned. It was a lost season and maybe hitting the reset button will do wonders for everyone. Don’t rule it out…but I still don’t love his cutter/slider/change secondaries. Also, get that velocity back k thx.

92. Drew Rasmussen (TBR) – There are moments when his slider and cutter shine and others where he allows far too much contact. Mix in the Rays often limiting him to five frames and you have someone I don’t love chasing in drafts but considerable as a pick up.

93. Jameson Taillon (FA) – I’ve seen the slider commanded incredibly well at times, propelling a higher strikeout rate, but in general, I think he throws strikes without a whole lot that dominates. It means he’s a Toby with a little more excitement at times. I’m curious where he lands in the winter.

94. Aaron Civale (CLE) – I may be too low on Civale, but we haven’t seen a full year of curves + cutters quite yet and I wonder what that looks like. Ultimately, he could settle in as a Toby and safer than those in Tier 13. If that’s your jam, go for it.

95. José Quintana (FA) – His command was insanely good as he embraced the BSB and went four-seamers up with curveballs down. This isn’t something that will stick around for another season though…right?

96. Carlos Carrasco (FA) – I felt like we could never quite trust Carrasco as he hovered a 4.00 ERA all season long. The slider and change each had moments but we never got that month of him glittering in the public eye as a product of those secondaries.

97. Eric Lauer (MIL) – The increased velocity was there and when he commanded heaters up with breakers for strikes, it was glorious. 21 whiffs on four-seamers alone one game and…five whiffs the next. Yep, that’s a HIPSTER alright.

98. Drew Smyly (FA) – Before getting injured at the end, Smyly was cruising as he went sinkers up and curveballs down, even adding some extra velocity at 93+ once again. We’ve seen a late-season fury from Smyly before and there’s some hope he can pick up where he left off.

99. Justin Steele (CHC) – He had some brilliant moments with fastballs and sliders, though injuries got in the way. I think I’ll be debating this one plenty early next year, but if he explodes early against the Brewers or Reds, you’re going to see a lot of talk about him.

100. Sixto Sánchez (MIA) – What’s a #100 without a fun pitcher? We haven’t seen Sixto since 2020 if you can believe it, but now he’s apparently expected for spring training. Uh huh. Look, in 12-teamers, these guys aren’t drafted. All I’m saying is you can take Sixto as your last pick, see if he’s doing well in the spring (let alone, pitching) and if he’s not in the rotation and looking okay, just drop him for something else. It’s your last pick, y’all.

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Corbin BurnesT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace	-
4	Shane McClanahan T2	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
5	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace	-
6	Julio Urías	Aces Gonna Ace	-
7	Jacob deGrom	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
8	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace	-
9	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
10	Carlos Rodón T3	Aces Gonna Ace	-
11	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace	-
12	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace	-
13	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace	-
14	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace	-
15	Spencer Strider	Aces Gonna Ace	-
16	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace	-
17	Alek Manoah	Aces Gonna Ace	-
18	Joe Musgrove	Aces Gonna Ace	-
19	Kevin Gausman	Ace Potential	-
20	Dylan Cease	Aces Gonna Ace	-
21	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace	-
22	Justin Verlander	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
23	Zac Gallen T4	Ace Potential	-
24	Cristian Javier	Ace Potential	-
25	Tyler Glasnow	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-
26	Luis Severino	Ace Potential	-
27	Nestor Cortes	Ace Potential	-
28	Triston McKenzie	Ace Potential	-
29	Robbie Ray	Ace Potential	-
30	Lance Lynn	Ace Potential	-
31	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
32	George Kirby T5	Ace Potential	-
33	Logan Webb	Ace Potential	-
34	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential	-
35	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	-
36	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential	-
37	Jesús Luzardo T6	Ace Potential	-
38	Nick Lodolo	Ace Potential	-
39	Pablo López	Ace Potential	-
40	Kyle Wright	Ace Potential	-
41	Jon Gray	Ace Potential	-
42	Joe Ryan	Ace Potential	-
43	Freddy Peralta T7	Ace Potential	-
44	Andrew Heaney	Ace Potential	-
45	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential	-
46	Chris Sale	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-
47	Blake Snell	Ace Potential	-
48	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential	-
49	Charlie Morton T8	Ace Potential	-
50	Jeffrey Springs	Ace Potential	-
51	Jordan Montgomery	Quality Starts	-
52	Tony Gonsolin	Ace Potential	-
53	Jack Flaherty T9	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-
54	Dustin May	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-
55	Lucas Giolito	Ace Potential	-
56	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential	-
57	Sonny Gray	Strikeout Upside	-
58	Kenta Maeda	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-
59	Michael Soroka	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-
60	Reid Detmers T10	Ace Potential	-
61	Hunter Greene	Ace Potential	-
62	Tylor Megill	Ace Potential	-
63	Edward Cabrera	Ace Potential	-
64	MacKenzie Gore	Ace Potential	-
65	Aaron Ashby	Ace Potential	-
66	Michael Kopech	Ace Potential	-
67	Grayson Rodriguez	Stash Option	-
68	Drey Jameson	Ace Potential	-
69	Tyler Anderson T11	Toby	-
70	Marcus Stroman	Toby	-
71	Brady Singer	Cherry Bomb	-
72	Patrick Sandoval	Cherry Bomb	-
73	Taijuan Walker	Toby	-
74	Ross Stripling	Toby	-
75	Miles Mikolas	Toby	-
76	Merrill Kelly	Toby	-
77	Tarik Skubal T12	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-
78	José Berríos	Cherry Bomb	-
79	Nathan Eovaldi	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-
80	Domingo Germán	Cherry Bomb	-
81	José Urquidy	Toby	-
82	Luis Garcia	Cherry Bomb	-
83	Alex Cobb	Cherry Bomb	-
84	Bailey Ober	Cherry Bomb	-
85	Roansy Contreras T13	Cherry Bomb	-
86	Luis L. Ortiz	Stash Option	-
87	DL Hall	Stash Option	-
88	Trevor Rogers	Cherry Bomb	-
89	Mike Clevinger	Cherry Bomb	-
90	Ryne Nelson	Stash Option	-
91	Eduardo Rodriguez T14	Toby	-
92	Drew Rasmussen	Toby	-
93	Jameson Taillon	Toby	-
94	Aaron Civale	Toby	-
95	Jose Quintana	Toby	-
96	Carlos Carrasco	Toby	-
97	Eric Lauer	Cherry Bomb	-
98		Cherry Bomb	-
99	Justin Steele	Cherry Bomb	-
100	Sixto Sánchez	Stash Option	-

 

And now for the other 100 starting pitchers I considered and should be noted for 2023. I really debated if I wanted to write blurbs for all of these pitchers and elected to keep this word count to about 9,000 instead of going over the 12,000 mark, so let me just give you a brief outline of the tiers at least:

 

I Ran Out Of Room In The Top 100 Tier

 

It’s mostly a carry-over from Tier 14 and I recognize that I could be high on many of these closer to the start of the season. Spencer Turnbull coming back from TJS is one of them, while Bryce Elder, Hayden Wesneski, Kyle Bradish, and Luis Patiño could turn heads in the spring if they have rotation spots and feature strong stuff.

Don’t ignore Alex Wood and David Peterson if they are locked in during spring training. There’s hope for both with their sliders.

 

Boring But Maybe You Like That? Tier

 

Jeeeez this is a massive tier and is filled with “I know, I’m crazy for putting him here, but I don’t think he’s worth a 12-teamer draft pick as he’s too close to a waiver wire pitcher without legit upside.” Seriously, I could say the same blurb for so many of these, but I’ll highlight a few.

It was maddening rostering Sean Manaea this year and as a free agent, I wonder what he turns into. The secondaires really let him down.

Steven Matz tore his MCL and will be looking to redeem himself in 2023. I may be too low on him given the high expectations for this past year and if you’re looking for your discount Toby, it may be Matz.

I’m not buying Martín Pérez’s season-long Vargas Rule, nor Cal Quantrill’s low ERA, etc. If they are here, it’s because I think the guy isn’t going to replicate his success or he has the ability to be a Toby over a full year (James Kaprielian, Michael Lorenzen, Anthony DeSclafani, etc.).

And hey, there’s Graham Ashcraft, Brayan Bello, and Mitch Keller among it all. Ashcraft throws hard but gets hit harder, Bello is possibly figuring out his secondaries but is too risky, and Keller…I don’t know. Maybe he actually gets his breakers working to a place where I believe his success? Wait, is this about Mitch or Nick Pivetta? I honestly don’t know.

 

If He Gets Innings Tier

 

Here’s the ultra-mega-fun tier tucked away and will likely feature a few names who force their way into the Top 100 next year as they get rotation spots (Eury Perez?). I’d say everyone after Gavin Stone is a step down in quality, then once again around Nick Martinez, so let’s not all take the “tier” part too literally.

For real though, if Daniel Espino, Hunter Brown, Jhoan Duran, Nate Pearson, and Cade Cavalli are starting next year (and I presume there are other prospects I’m completely forgetting in this tier), then you’re going to want to pay attention. Their ceilings are high. 

It’s a “wait and see” moment for Ian Anderson as Atlanta has a plethora of other options. He may not be doing enough to demand a rotation spot back, and if he does, when do we trust him?

Matt Strahm indicated his plans to start next year and I can’t help but wonder if that actually pans out this time.

 

Innings Exist Tier

 

Oh hey, it’s a group of guys I’ll likely be streaming through the year but have zero interest in drafting them to start the year. If you’re in a points league that rewards innings, fine, I get it, and these guys all (for the most part) will have a chance to go six on a given night. I sure don’t want to have my hand in their pots on Opening Day, though.

 

So There’s A Chance Tier

 

I recognize that there are many young arms who didn’t come through in 2022 and could put it together with more time on the bump. Do I want to bet that they will if given the opportunity? Not really, but I know they have intriguing skills here and there and it could turn into something.

Sorry Josiah Gray, your heater allows too many longballs and your breakers are so dang inconsistent. Still.

Lots of Cubs here (Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson, Javier Assad) and it’s unclear who (if any) will get starts to begin next season.

Don’t overlook the Athletics in Ken Waldichuk and JP Sears. Give them innings and maybe these former Yankee arms can put something together.

And hey, it’s Justin Dunn, who intrigued me with the Mariners and should get regular innings for the Reds next year. I’m curious how he develops.

Jake Odorizzi is hanging out at the end, completely out of place and weirded out by the younglings. Look, Odorizzi, I recognize you can put it together out of nowhere, but I have no idea what your situation is next year.

 

Injured Tier

 

This is the group for all the TJS arms who may come back at some point next year + Stephen Strasburg and James Paxton. If you want to IL stash them, go ahead, but think of Tyler Glasnow’s two-start return as the “fruits of your labor”. It’s very likely not worth it.

I guess I could have also added Joe Ross here, but I think he’s slightly under the rest of the injured guys here. But hey, he exists, too.

 

Oh It’s The Rockies Tier

 

Sure, they exist. Y’all know I never want to do this and the rarity of them becoming a play more than 50% of the time is incredibly rare.

Go away Kyle Freeland, José Ureña, Chad Kuhl, and Germán Márquez. PLEASE.

But Nick! Kuhl and Ureña are Free Agents now! …so? Let me have this and group them all together. I guess there’s a chance Kuhl puts it together in a perfect situation, but I’m really not interested in it. FINE. Put him near JT Brubaker if he signs in a good place, okay? Great.

I guess I could have replaced Ryan Feltner with Antonio Senzatela, but y’all know that’s not something I’m interested in.

 

Also Innings But Worse Tier

 

These guys will also likely get their chances next year but y’all know you don’t want to do this. Patrick Corbin is the only intriguing one and I’ll stand by that – the velocity is still there and I can’t help but imagine there’s a single tweak that can be made to fix his command to what it once was. A man can hope.

I don’t expect Yusei Kikuchi to get his chances and impress, while Michael Pineda may find a team to let him go five frames and dive once again. Wonderful, I guess.

And as you know, Don’t Trust The Feddes.

 

 

Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)