The Orioles trading Bryan Baker to the Rays this morning for a draft pick came as a complete surprise (welcome to trade season), as I thought Baker might be the only safe reliever in Baltimore this month. Instead, the Orioles believe they are selling high on Baker in exchange for the 37th overall pick (essentially a dart throw with about a 25% chance to make a positive MLB impact). Baker is coming off a brutal outing where the Mets tagged him for four runs, but leading up to that he held a 2.58 ERA (2.30 SIERA), 0.99 WHIP, with 33.3% K and 31.7% CSW rates for the season (plus a 108 Stuff+). In Tampa Bay, Baker should slot right into a high leverage role, and potentially into the closer role if the team does trade Pete Fairbanks. In Baltimore, the sell is on so expect to see Gregory Soto and Seranthony Domínguez on the move this month as well, with Félix Bautista and Yennier Cano potentially available as well.
Notes
- Dylan Lee was the Braves de facto closer for about a month but was only able to pick up one save as this team just has continued to struggle. I think (for now at least) it’s safe to say Raisel Iglesias is back as the Braves closer, so Lee is back on the hold’s list, where he is still an elite option. The Braves are either going to stand pat at the deadline and hope to build momentum towards next season, in which case Lee should end the year with a bunch of holds. Or the team will sell rental pieces such as Iglesias, and that would lead to Lee getting some more save chances down the stretch.
- Eric Sabrowski made his season debut June 27th and has already picked up where he left off last year. Actually, he looks even better than he did last season as his already elite fastball (19″ IVB!) is up 1.5 MPH. His secondaries aren’t great, but should be enough to keep hitters off balance as long as he can command them. Teammate Paul Sewald has also looked great since returning from the IL last week (3 IP, 0 baserunners, 3 K), and could turn into one of the more coveted trade deadline targets over the next few weeks.
- Graham Ashcraft returned from the IL this past week and umm, he is throwing his cutter at 99 MPH again (finally!). Not only has the cutter seen increased velocity, but the slider has also been up 1.5 MPH. This is the guy we were hyped about as a reliever, as the stuff is similar to Emmanuel Clase’s (slider is better than Clase’s, cutter is not) so keep an eye on him if he can continue this trend. The command still needs some work, but the stuff is something to get excited about. If the Reds do sell at the deadline and move Emilio Pagán, the closer role could open up for Ashcraft.
- If/when the Nationals move closer Kyle Finnegan, it will likely be Lord vs. Ferrer(i) for the closer role over the remaining two months. Since Brad Lord became a reliever, he holds a 2.97 ERA (3.37 SIERA), 1.20 WHIP and 15.1% K-BB rate (90 Stuff+) while over that same span Jose A. Ferrer holds a 3.42 ERA (2.40 SIERA), 0.84 WHIP, and 17.3% K-BB rate (111 Stuff+). They are close, but I still give the edge to Ferrer as he has been able to hang on to a high leverage role despite a tumultuous season. The team clearly trusts him (although does the new manager?).
