The PLV Power Report: Ranking Team Offenses

Welcome to the PLV Power Report! Here, we examine hitter performance by utilizing Power+, a PLV+ metric which indexes a player’s power based on the characteristics of the pitch, i.e., count, location, velocity, induced vertical break, height-adjusted vertical approach angle, and other factors. Essentially, we’re searching for players with upside who are adding power based on the expectation of the individual pitches they see.

For example, say a hitter hits a well-located fastball on the outside corner that might typically coax a weak line drive, but instead, they belt a home run the opposite way; they’ll get a much better power grade for that outcome. Conversely, if that hitter sees a hanging changeup over the heart of the plate, or another pitch that would normally be crushed, and instead pops up to short, they’ll get a much lower score for the outcome. The power metric is unique because it provides a more intuitive way to assess player performance by accounting for the quality of each pitch they see. In other words, it’s a good way to check if a player is over- or underperforming by adding context. Note that Power+, like PLV+ metrics, is normalized to 100 and generally becomes more meaningful after around 75 BBE (batted ball events).

If you’re new to the PLV metrics, you can find Nick’s primer here.

With the All-Star break on the horizon, we’ll peek at team offensive rankings, recap some things we saw in the first half, and some stuff I’m looking for in the second half. I’ll list several PLV+ metrics to provide a better picture, but Power+ will remain our emphasis as we go team by team.

Note: PLV metrics are current through Saturday, July 5th.

The Top Ten

The Dodgers continue to be the cream of the crop. Mookie Betts‘ home run upside has taken a hit with his Power+ dropping from 100 to 87. However, Will Smith has picked up the slack (112 Power+). Andy Pages‘ (107 Power+) breakout has also helped the Dodgers navigate down seasons from Teoscar Hernández and Freddie Freeman. Speaking of Freeman, he has just ten dingers through 78 games, but his 113 Power+ indicates brighter days ahead. Losing Max Muncy (120 Power+) hurts, but don’t overlook his replacement at third, Tommy Edman; his 97 Power+ might not seem like much, but it qualifies as a quantum leap compared to the 83 he showed last season.

Sure, it’s just one metric, so it doesn’t mean everything, but I don’t think I would’ve guessed the Angels were tied with the Dodgers in Power+. As mentioned last week, Jo Adell (124 Power+) has been a big surprise. Zach Neto (127 Power+), Taylor Ward (109 Power+), and Logan O’Hoppe (124 Power+) have also added serious firepower to the Angels’ lineup. However, they, and Mike Trout, have all shown below-average contact ability, making them susceptible to strikeouts.

Remember when we used to like streaming pitchers against Detroit? Those were the days. Resurgences from Spencer Torkelson (114 Power+) and Gleyber Torres (107 Power+) have got the Tigers’ lineup humming. And then, there’s Riley Greene (133 Power+). Sure, he’s in a platoon, but PLV thinks we should keep an eye on Colt Keith (111 Power+). And Javier Báez’s Power+ has climbed from 95 to 100 with swing decisions that aren’t quite as bad as last year (61 DV+).

Surprise! Aaron Judge’s 150 Power+ is tops among all hitters with at least 400 pitches faced; Ohtani is second (145 Power+). Trent Grisham has been a pleasant surprise for the Bombers and cuts a pretty solid profile, including pop (110 Power+) and exemplary swing decisions (121 DV+). Ben Rice (123 Power+) and Paul Goldschmidt (108 Power+) have shown plenty of upside, but Giancarlo Stanton’s return has squeezed their at-bats. Goldschmidt, though, will need better results against same-handed pitching soon, as he might be at risk of falling into the short side of a platoon. Jasson Domínguez remains a wild card; he’s shown good upside from the left side (107 Power+), but his results as a righty have not been good at all. It will be interesting to see how the Yankees play this; do they prioritize giving him regular at-bats, or play it strictly by the numbers?

The Mets have just worn out pitchers all year. They hit for power, make great swing decisions, and they don’t even strike out. Francisco Lindor’s Power+ has plummeted this year from 119 to 100, but he’s cruising to his fifth 30-home run season anyway. What happened to Mark Vientos? I wish I had the answer, but at the very least, I can say it’s not a simple case of being woefully unlucky with his Power+ having dropped from 126 to 91.

 

 

The Cubs have plenty of firepower, but Michael Busch (118 Power+) probably doesn’t get talked about enough. He’s just three away from tying last year’s 21 home runs, which he hit in 496 at-bats, and has really tied their lineup together.

The Red Sox have fared reasonably well since the Devers trade, with their 103 wRC+ ranking 15th since June 15th. Roman Anthony has seen just 350 pitches, so take it with a grain of salt, but his profile looks good across the board, including a 109 Power+. Their top prospect aside, Boston has already reaped the benefits of Wilyer Abreu (118 Power+), who has firmly established himself as a righty masher, having already clobbered a career-best 17 dingers. Deep leaguers might want to keep tabs on Romy González (114 Power+).

The Braves, where to begin? Ozzie Albies (83 Power+) has been a wreck all year, and the same with Michael Harris (100 Power+), the latter being dragged down by ill-advised swing decisions. But Marcell Ozuna’s tailspin has perhaps been an even bigger problem, with his bat producing a 52 wRC+ in June. His 111 Power+ doesn’t paint the worst picture, but we probably should keep expectations in check. Drake Baldwin, on the other hand, is pretty exciting (114 Contact Ability+ and 107 Power+), leaving us wondering how he can get more at-bats. On that note, Sean Murphy’s (117 Power+) bat is still pretty potent.

First-time All-Star Ryan O’Hearn (106 Power+) is just four home runs away from tying last year’s career-high of 15 home runs. On the other side of the spectrum, Adley Rutschman, currently on the IL, has been a disappointment. However, his 97 Power+ is just about where it was last year, making him a reasonable buy-low. However, I can’t say the same about Gunnar Henderson; his 103 Power+ is about a standard deviation lower than last year.

Geraldo Perdomo has provided the D’Backs with everything they could’ve hoped for and more. He’s been a bat-to-ball wizard (132 Contact Ability+) and should get plenty of counting stats if he can maintain a spot atop the order. However, don’t count on him repeating the nine home runs he hit in the first half (83 Power+). A fractured finger recently sent Gabriel Moreno to the IL, but I’m curious to see what he can do in the second half (107 Contact Ability+, 103 Power+).

The Middle of the Pack

Would you believe it? The Marlins are only one point below the league average in Power+. We’ve got rookie Agustin Ramírez (112 Power+) and Kyle Stowers (126 Power+) to thank.

 

And the Rest

Lars Nootbaar’s (97 Power+), Masyn Winn’s (88 Power+), and Jordan Walker’s (100 Power+) struggles to develop have left the Red Birds stuck in neutral with Willson Contreras as their biggest threat (124 Power+).

The Rangers’ lineup went through a long stretch without Corey Seager, and with Marcus Semien mired in a slump; however, the latter has since pulled out of it with his Power trending toward league average (97 Power+). Wyatt Langford’s Power+ has climbed a few points to 107, but that’s a touch short of the superstar upside that most were hoping for. Regardless, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rangers finish a few spots higher, especially with Jake Burger (109 Power+) and Adolis García (106 Power+) trending up.

Tyler Soderstrom’s (109 Power+) home run surge at the beginning of the season didn’t last. However, Nick Kurtz (127 Power+) has supplied the A’s with thunder. The unsolved question is which Lawrence Butler do we see in the second half: This year’s version (103 Power+) or last year’s (117 Power+)?

What? The White Sox aren’t at the bottom? No, of course not, silly, they’ve got Andrew Benintendi (108 Power+).

Gavin Sheets (113 Power+) has given the Padres some unexpected juice, but the key will be if they get better results out of Jackson Merrill, and his 123 Power+ provides plenty of room for a big second half.

Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads
@kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)