Top 400 Starting Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball 2025 – SP Rankings 126-150

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Tier 15 – The Spring Is Full Of Hope (Cont’d)

I’m paying attention to these arms during the spring, either to win a rotation spot or to show something new that can turn them into a legitimate fantasy starter.

126. Luis García (HOU, RHP)

Garcia isn’t expected back by opening day this year after missing all of 2024 with recovery from TJS and multiple setbacks during rehab. That doesn’t sound good. No, no it doesn’t. Garcia was a fantastic slider/cutter arm with great iVB on the heater that didn’t save it from being the clear weak point. Garcia may struggle to find the same breakers when he ultimately returns, possibly with a worse heater and his health is obviously a major concern. But hey, he’ll be the cost of free and it’s possible he’s better than whatever #5 option the Astros have at the time he’s ready, which could spell some value when the time comes. Don’t forget about him entirely, just don’t go jumping over legit options for the fella.

127. Ryne Nelson (ARI, RHP)

I really want to say that Nelson is legit and deserves all the success but…does he? The fella hurled 60%+ four-seamers during his fantastic ~3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP run from July 1st through the end of the year and it doesn’t quite add up. Eno and I talked about him on an episode of The Craft and nearly said in unison “I don’t get it!” referring to Nelson and his four-seamer in the zone, especially when its ICR marks aren’t elite. That heater was smacked by LHB a ton during the stretch with a changeup that didn’t do nearly enough and the cutter helped but wasn’t stellar.

The slider is too slow at 83/84 mph to be a major whiff pitch, either, and I don’t quite get it. The 17+ inches of iVB at 95 mph is a good foundation, absolutely, but it doesn’t quite translate to the success he’s had, especially without a major supporting cast.

I’ll be watching Nelson this spring to see if his 91/92 mph cutter can do more inside the zone and hopefully convert to a higher SwStr rate this year, especially if he can command it with his four-seamer for proper pitch separation, preventing batters from discerning which offering is heading their way. There’s also the whole “he doesn’t have a spot and the Sneks don’t want to go six-man” thing, though these things normally figure themselves out in time. I think we can let Nelson go in drafts unless we see legit growth in his arsenal this spring and a clear hold on a rotation spot.

Quick Take: Nelson’s late success late year doesn’t seem fully real and he doesn’t have a rotation spot after the Diamondbacks signed Burnes. There could be another gear for his four-seamer and cutter to legitimize his success in 2025, but I’d let us determine that at the beginning of the year instead of during the draft.

Tier 16 – You Deeper Leagues Need Tobys Too

Deeper leagues need more volume and stability, and you can find that here. Kinda. I don’t like going for these pitchers in drafts and I still believe you can find an equivalent pitcher on the wire in-season.

128. Jon Gray (TEX, RHP)

I still believe Gray should be in the bullpen. As far as I can tell, he’s very much in the rotation and we have to treat him as such…but the skill set is so clearly pen. IT’S OBVIOUS! His heater doesn’t perform well at 95 mph and needs that extra kick from the pen for 96/97 mph to make the pitch return anything close to a 10% SwStr rate (never held across his career) while his slider is Filthy McFry and demolishes RHB with little effort – he even threw it more than half the time when facing right-handers. What about LHB? Uhhhh, he still throws sliders 33% of the time to an 11% SwStr rate with a meh changeup and the same mediocre heater.

All of that said, watching Gray across the years, I’ve noticed he gets into moments of rhythm with his fastball and slider that create a string of ace-like outings before it falls apart once again. Drafting Gray is breaking the Huascar Rule – you can’t trust a pitcher with a slider and nothing else, no matter how good it is. This has HIPSTER written all over it (and that’s the ceiling…?) and I have no interest. JUST STICK HIM IN THE PEN.

Quick Take: Gray’s slider will keep the strikeouts alive, though his fastball is volatile and leads to a ton of damage. He breaks the Huascar Rule and be careful leaning into him for reliable outings.

129. Andrew Abbott (CIN, LHP)

There’s not enough in the tank. The four-seamer is awfully pedestrian (sub 10% SwStr rate to both LHB/RHB and blegh metrics), his changeup does little to instill fear to RHB, and his sweeper fails to excel at the one area it needs to: Demolishing LHB. If Abbott is able to find that slowball, remove his sweeper from missing over the middle of the plate, find the edges with his four-seamer, and keep working in curveballs early for free real estate, then it can absolutely work. We’ve seen it before back in the summer of 2023. There’s too much to work on with a whole against him (Cincy, ugh) to make him a target in drafts.

Quick Take: What does Abbott do well? His four-seamer is far from exceptional, his sweeper can dive under RHB bats but makes plenty of mistakes (especially against LHB!), and his changeup is plenty of steps behind his contemporary southpaws. His situation in Cincy adds more weight to the climb as we can sit back and cheer for his growth with other pitchers in our lineups.

130. Jake Irvin (WSN, RHP)

Remember this whole thing? Through his first eighteen starts, Irvin held a 2.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 23% strikeout rate across 106 frames. Ohhhh right, so why isn’t he ranked higher? Because it was a 6.50 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP after. Ah. That isn’t to say Irvin didn’t deserve the first half success. He added extension to his four-seamer and located it upstairs extremely well, pairing it with a sinker with plenty of horizontal break, though the latter failed to get inside to RHB as much as he should have.

The real hero? His curveball, a pitch that returned a 19% ICR to RHB with 35%+ usage in his glorious stretch, then plummeted to 45%+ ICR to both sides of the plate after. It does open the door for another marvelous stretch of baseball for Irvin should his curveball feel return, though chasing a ratio high and not an overall elite arm isn’t the greatest flier to take. Treat Irvin like a desperate streamer early and you may find yourself holding on longer than expected.

Quick Take: His curveball was incredible in the first half last year, then fell off massively, catalyzing a disappointing conclusion to 2024. He could be sneaky value early if the breaker is in full form once again as his 95 mph four-seamer with elite extension is a solid foundation to stand on.

131. Mitchell Parker (WSN, LHP)

Parker is your standard “Hey, I’m a lefty without anything special but I’ll throw enough decent strikes.” That makes Parker a wannabe Toby who has some areas where he could take another step. No, it’s not his four-seamer at 92/93 mph with decent marks (unless it gains velo, but that’s for nearly every pitcher), and I’d say that his curve has been squeezed enough to do as much as it can against RHB. It’s not a bad curve, just not one to make them shake in their boots.

The real winner in the arsenal is his slider, a pitch that dominated LHB across 35% usage with a 70%+ strike rate and 25% SwStr rate while boasting a stupid low 27% ICR. In other words, it did everything you’d ever want a pitch to do…and he rarely featured it against RHB. My guess is he tried it a few times, got burned by it, and lost faith in it.

Instead, Parker utilized a splitter to RHB that had its moments, but overall wasn’t consistent enough to be the true nullifier to his four-seamer (What?! An inconsistent splitter?!). I’d love to see that turn into a bigger weapon if he can get the pitch down, though the likely improvement is for the slider to get involved and make a full four-pitch spread to RHB.

It’s certainly possible and I’d be on the lookout for the shift to come, though I wouldn’t get my hopes up. Best to wait and see instead of chasing it, though he’ll get the volume in 15-teamers as a sneaky play.

Quick Take: Parker takes down LHB with a legit slider but struggles to find a consistent blueprint for success against RHB without a stellar heater, curve, or splitter. It’s possible he finds a cure in his sophomore season and with his routine volume, there’s value to be had if we see growth in the spring.

132. Brady Singer (CIN, RHP)

He’s going to be different in Cincinnati! No. Please. Don’t do this again. Singer had a beautiful start to 2024 and we received incessant rants about how Singer is a changed pitcher. He’s finally finding his groove. Singer has figured it out! Nope. He’s still a sinker/slider guy who toyed with a four-seamer and changeup that just don’t work. Moving him away from the SP paradise of Kansas City to the bandbox of Cincy doesn’t help (though, the HR concerns aren’t as warranted as others given his 9th percentile flyball rate around 25%), and I don’t see why we should expect anything different. The slider and sinker are still rough against LHB (the new four-seamer had a 50% strike rate in 11%+ usage. Blegh), while the sinker/slider tandem of called strikes + whiffs (CSW darling!) is still going to keep him competitive against RHB-heavy lineups. There’s sure to be a great stretch in there, but he’s a Toby at best and most likely a streamer when avoiding an LHB-focused squad.

133. Mitch Spence (ATH, RHP)

Think of Graham Ashcraft with six ticks worse velocity + a solid curve against LHB and you have Spence. The cutter works against LHB, struggles against RHB, while the slider is the opposite, thankful for a curveball to operate 20% of the time to help deal with left-handers, albeit the majority of which occur in two-strike counts. The sinker is also akin to Ashcraft in that he struggles to locate the dang thing, adding a ghastly smear to his report card with its sub 50% strike rate against RHB despite 24% usage. Jeeeeez. How do you make Spence a reliable arm? Simple. Figure out how to command the sinker to RHB and throw harder. That probably won’t happen. Yeah, probably not. That said, if he’s at least able to take a step forward in spotting the cutter to RHB, he can continue to flirt with a sub 4.00 ERA without falling under a 20% strikeout rate. It’ll be just his second year in the bigs, don’t rule out a step forward of some fashion.

Quick Take: Spence’s slider and cutter are PLV darlings and if he finds some velocity, it can be a reliable one-two punch for good ratios with a tinge of strikeout potential.

134. Tyler Anderson (LAA, LHP)

Anderson is what he is, even if 2023 and 2024 are vastly different results. He’s a lefty with a stellar changeup and 19″ of iVB on his four-seamer, hoping to feast on RHB with the slowball and praying his fastball doesn’t get demolished beforehand. Against LHB, the changeup gets ignored for the cutter, a pitch that held 70%+ strike rates in the past with tight precision down-and-gloveside, and has since devolved into barely keeping its head above the 60% strike threshold, even recording a horrible 14% putaway rate against LHB this past year. Blegh.

He’s not completely two-pitch based on handedness – the cutter can show up early to RHB and the changeup has its moments against LHB – but that four-seamer’s 89/90 mph velocity and inability to return a ton of whiffs nor sub 40% ICR to either side of the plate is the fatal flaw. When the command is there, the changeup will soar. When batters can go fastball hunting, he’s an obvious Double Bubble. He’s a volatile streamer with potential to destroy a RHB-heavy lineup.

135. Mitch Keller (PIT, RHP)

I want to give Keller props for improving upon RHB last year. None of his main offerings (four-seamer, sinker, sweeper) resulted in an ICR above 40%, with the sinker continuing to deceive and generate outs and the usually horrendous four-seamer allowing zero homers last year. Zero! In addition, the sweeper isn’t phenomenal with a sub 15% SwStr rate, but it stays away enough to turn those potential whiffs into weak contact and that’s fine by us.

KNOCK. Oh no. Is someone at the door? No, that was another hit given up by Keller to a LHB. All of Keller’s pitches allowed at least a 40% ICR to LHB as he lacks a comfortable approach. The cutter’s 15% usage suggests a bump in 2025 if he can get the pitch further inside, though it didn’t look like a savior pitch last year. The heaters were demolished, the sweeper didn’t work (not a shock) and the curve is a called strike pitch, not a breaker to turn to.

It maps out to a pitcher who overperformed against RHB and continued to fail against LHB. I don’t see the path toward dominance in 2025, sadly, and I have to express caution drafting Keller in 2025. There’s too much to fix.

Quick Take: Keller doesn’t have an arsenal that works against LHB while regression is likely to come against RHB. His 4.25 ERA and 1.30 WHIP could very well be worse in the year ahead and I’d love to avoid it at all costs. There is some value in deeper formats for streaming Wins given his long leash, and I’d leave consideration exclusive for those leagues.

136. Andre Pallante (STL, RHP)

Don’t listen to the classifications – Pallante throws a cutter for a four-seamer and it works wonders at limiting hard contact with an overall 25% ICR, which isn’t too shocking when it’s a 94.5 mph cutter. Mixed with a sinker that actually locates inside (generally) to RHB, Pallante has all the makings of your standard Cardinals starter who relies pitches to contact. There is a slider to RHB and curve to LHB that attempt to be appealing whiff pitches, but I wouldn’t expect them to take off unless he can merge it with the cutter more effectively.

And maybe that’s alright? Pallante is a sneaky 15-team sleeper given his clear skill to get outs with the cutter four-seamer CUTTER and who knows, maybe he’s grown a bit over the off-season to add another skill. Or maybe he’s destined to hover around a 10% walk rate with a 9+ hit-per-nine and shouldn’t be focused on at all. We’ll know early in the year, at the very least.

Quick Take: Pallante’s four-seamer is a cutter in disguise that mitigates hard contact incredibly well at 94/95 mph and creates a foundation for a possible breakout if he’s able to build on top of it. Consider him in deep leagues and monitor his development in 12-teamers as a potential Toby.

137. Dean Kremer (BAL, RHP)

Kremer is a guy you see randomly flex a ten strikeout game and sit up in your chair wondering where that came from. Sometimes it’s the high vert four-seamer landing upstairs and peaking in putaway rate, sometimes the cutter eclipses the elusive 60% strike rate, and other times it’s a splitter cooking against LHB. The problem? You have no idea when it’ll happen, with Kremer being a prototypical Werewolf. Once a month, he’s a beast. I’m not expecting the command to click into place, nor any of his cutter or splitter to become 65% strike pitches overnight, and I’d very much rather ignore Kremer entirely.

But hey, he’ll get opportunities with the Orioles without the worst strikeout rate, which grants value for deeper leagues. Have fun over there, I’ll be busy using his roster spot to find sustainable starters in 12-teamers.

Quick Take: Kremer’s cutter, four-seamer, and splitter have the potential to go off on a given night, but the arsenal as a whole is unrefined and inconsistent. With regular starts for the Orioles, Kremer has value for Wins and total strikeouts for the year, but the ratio dent is too much to bear in 12-teamers without enough reward.

138. Charlie Morton (BAL, RHP)

Having both Morton and Eflin reminds me of Spider-ManPointing.jpeg, with Morton relying on a curveball foundation and hoping the cutter and fastballs help enough along the way. I wish the four-seamer was a better offering, but it really struggles against LHB, with the changeup and cutter not doing nearly enough to get him to the finish line as they have in the past.

I wish I were more optimistic that Morton could produce throughout the year – I think we all expected him to be retired by now, to be honest – and I’d reserve him only for deep leagues where Wins are scarce. 12-Teamers can see Morton as a streaming option and not much else with so many quality arms to chase instead. But hey, maybe the curveball is still great and he figures out how to get his change and/or cutter back on track to allow the four-seamer to hide in the shadows against LHB. Yes, you can only expect me TWENTY percent of the time! Wow, so deadly. Really? Nah, probably not. Sorry fella.

Quick Take: Morton will still have some strikeouts up his sleeve with a large runway on the Orioles, but the ratios are sure to hurt across many starts. Consider him in AL-Only leagues and reserved as a rare streamer in your standard formats.

139. Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL, RHP)

You probably don’t know much at all about the 35-year-old Sugano. I sure didn’t until I read this from Ben Clemens at FanGraphs and it’s awesome. Sugano is outlined as a control freak who spins the ball well and tries to sneak fastballs over the plate enough without getting punished. That sounds like a Toby. It sure does! And a perfect fit for the Orioles who don’t need the greatest ZOMG pitcher out there, they need guys who will keep them in ball games and allows their above-average offense to do the rest. I’m expecting Sugano to be the #5 out of camp unless he looks terrible and/or one of Povich/Suarez are just that good.

Sugano is a great 15-team sleeper for Wins and decent ratios, especially in the WHIP department as he’d need over a 9.0 hit-per-nine to actually hurt your WHIP with his absurd control (sub 3% walk rate?!), though your 12-teamers will be struggling from a strikeout rate staring out a rainy window at a dancing a man dressed in a 20% costume. Where do they sell those? I dunno, maybe at the same discount store you’re getting Sugano? Ayyyy. Consider Sugano as an “alright, I need something” arm during the year and give him a start or two before actually considering him for a stream in standard leagues.

Quick Take: Expect a low WHIP and a decent number of Wins without strikeouts and a possibly high ERA if his fastballs get blasted over the wall. He’s a 15-team sleeper but reserved as a Toby at best in 12-teamers and likely a streaming option here and there throughout the year.

140. Aaron Civale (MIL, RHP)

It was a struggle of a season for Civale, even if it ended well. His arsenal took a step back last year with the Rays, though he did move away from the sweeper to more curves with the Brewers and it came with some success, leading to a strong 2.57 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across his final nine starts of the year. A small victory across an otherwise poor season, but maybe he’s simply more comfortable in Milwaukee.

That said, I’m still skeptical about his full arsenal for the entire season. I don’t love the focus on backdoor cutters against LHB, sinkers suddenly going backdoor to RHB (why not inside? FOR BOTH?!), and I’m not sure his curve is stellar enough to make him truly fantasy relevant for 12-teamers. He may end up as a Toby, but more likely in 15-teamers and not your 12-teamers.

Quick Take: Civale’s kitchen sink arsenal doesn’t come with stellar command, and it makes for a low strikeout arm whose ratios are no lock to be helpful across your 12-teamers. There may be some 15-teamer value here, though, as the Brewers are sure to give him a decently long leash across his outings.

141. Joey Cantillo (CLE, LHP)

The Guardians are still determining their fifth starter and I believe it should be Cantillo…but McKenzie doesn’t have any options left and he has to beat out Oritz. He carries 99th percentile extension (7.5 feet!) which opens the door for success, even at just 92 mph. His changeup has plenty of potential to demolish RHB if he can command it a touch better, while his slider to LHB works wonders akin to typical sliders lefty-on-lefty.

It’s really that simple. Hopefully, Cantillo gets more time to refine his command of the changeup, allowing him to refrain from overthrowing his heater over the plate. There’s 12-teamer potential here and if he snags that job out of camp, I’d be all over him in 15-teamers as a Toby type.

Quick Take: He may not make the rotation out of camp, but his absurd extension allows him to get by with a 90 mph heater and creates an excellent changeup to take down RHB. The potential is here for a reliable backend starter.

There is always more upside to be found and these arms could be super sneaky for deeper leagues, with some carrying a low shot of making their ways onto 12-teamers. Pay attention to them.

142. Tyler Mahle (TEX, RHP)

He returned from TJS to toss three starts, only to get shut down with shoulder tightness as we twiddle our thumbs, waiting to hear more entering 2025. The hope is for Mahle to get back at 93/94 mph (not 92 mph we saw last year, ignoring the 89 mph start with shoulder pain), while locating upstairs consistently and pairing it with something legit. Remember, Mahle wasn’t a stud pre-TJS, either. He was a pitcher who had a solid heater foundation but needed a proper companion to truly take off. Maybe the spliitter, maybe the slider, maybe a new cutter, I don’t know what it would be, but Mahle doesn’t seem to be a supinator (read: a dude who throws breakers well), which makes me question if he can develop that much needed #2 pitch. Feel free to grab Mahle at the end of drafts to see how he looks in spring and/or his first start, though I question if the ceiling is high enough to chase. Make sure you buy a short leash.

Quick Take: Mahle’s health is still in question as we hope to see 93+ on the fastball in 2025. We’re still waiting for a proper #2 pitch to arrive and make him a stable arm, let alone have the ability to get the pearl every five days. Not the worst dart throw, but he has a difficult path to a high ceiling.

143. JP Sears (ATH, LHP)

But against RHB, that’s where the concerns arise. I don’t expect the four-seamer to improve, and I personally believe the sweeper’s effectiveness in 2024 may take a step back in the year ahead (it’s a sweeper thrown roughly 20% of the time against opposite-handed batters that doesn’t normally work). You may have learned by now that changeups are crucial for LHP and Sears has been struggling to get his going. The pitch was thrown roughly 25% of the time against RHB, however failed to return strikes, let alone whiffs. With the likes of Skubal returning a 25%+ SwStr rate on his, seeing Sears’ 8.8% SwStr Rate on his changeup is simply horrifying. That said, it makes a clear path to becoming something legit and I’ll be eyeing Sears in the spring, hoping he’s taken a step forward nailing that pitch against RHB – it cannot continue with a 99th percentile y-mLoc. Nope nope nope, can’t do that. There is serious potential if he gets it going.

Quick Take: The stuff feels close and it’s totally possible he finds a rhythm and produces for fantasy. The strikeout rate won’t be terrible but you’ll need good fortune for the ratios to help.

144. Sean Burke (CHW, RHP)

I’ll likely be the highest on Burke entering this year and I don’t think you should draft him. But there is promise and I think you’ll see it too. The four-seamer has legit potential with the golden seven feet of extension at 95+ mph (we saw him hit 98!), combined with elite 17-18″ of iVB that he takes advantage of with a consistent approach up in the zone. We’re talking 62% hiLoC in his few starts last year, not the sub-50 % mark of many contemporaries with fastballs made to elevate.

This four-seamer paired with his good-not-great slider did wonders against RHB in his (very) brief stint in 2024, prompting 20%+ SwStr rates on both pitches and hilarious putaway rates that inflated his 28%+ strikeout rate. That’s not gonna stick even if he fixes the typical problem: LHB. His changeup was a whole lot of meh while the slider and curve were not elegant solutions to the classic weakness, and Burke can’t soar as a sleeper breakout pick in 2025 unless there’s a clear solution displayed in the spring.

And yes, the White Sox don’t win games, nor does Burke have a history of longevity made for large volume in the first place. I’m still excited at his stellar four-seamer and ability to throw slider strikes, hoping more blossoms across routine starts in Chicago.

145. Jordan Montgomery (ARI, LHP)

Soooo is Montgomery actually going to toss some innings for the Diamondbacks this year? With Nelson as the SP #6 (you know, the guy who was arguably the Sneks best starter in the second half), The Bear doesn’t have a spot at the moment and you have to imagine many teams will run into SP depth issues in March when an injury appears out of nowhere. In fact, that’s what happened to the Diamondbacks last year that got Montgomery signed to his contract in the first place.

Let’s say that happens and JorMont heads to another squad. It would be safe to assume a few things. 1) He’s in the rotation out of camp. 2) He’s trust to go every five days with a sizeable leash. 3) It’s not for a tanking team. That present Montgomery as an interesting Toby target for 15-teamers if not even 12-teamers when the time comes. After all, Montgomery was regarded as such (if not more) before last year and it’s pretty clear his lost season snowballed after his lack of smooth ramp up to the season.

The differences between 2023 and 2024 aren’t that egregious, save for a 1.5-mph drop in velocity that felt normal in the beginning, but it didn’t rise as the year went on, sitting 92/93 only when he transferred to the pen. Yikes. Meanwhile, the curve was hit more by LHB, the changeup was hit harder by RHB with some poor luck, and voila, that’s JorMont.

Before last year’s fall from grace, I’ve considered Montgomery a feel pitcher. He gets into grooves where he can locate his change and curve effectively without letting his sinker get punished. We saw that when the Yankees traded him to the Cardinals, and with the Rangers during his World Series run. Don’t rule out The Bear waking up from hibernation for lovely production at some point, but until he’s traded, I’m not touching him. I think we’ll have to wait until he gets back into form once entering a new clubhouse and the reward for our patience is just another 50 rupees. I already have 3,000 rupees dangit!

Quick Take: Don’t overlook Montgomery in your deeper leagues as I expect his ADP to rise once the Diamondbacks find a suitor before the season starts. What you’re likely getting back is a Toby who will have his stretches of production merged with oh-so-boring games of inefficiency. Great for deep leagues, meh for 12-teamers.

146. Ben Lively (CLE, RHP)

Okay. You don’t believe in what he did last year. I don’t believe in what he did last year. But you know what? I reviewed him on stream and I think I shouted “you rascal!” three times as I understood his approach.

Lively doesn’t have filthy stuff. It’s 90 mph heaters without a major whiff pitch and the man needs to be a crafty villain to get his outs and exploit his greatest asset – seven feet of extension. So what does he do? He throws early four-seamers up-and-away and early sliders down-and-away to RHB to set up the sinker coming back over the plate to generate outs. You crafty man! They think these heaters will work like the four-seamer and suddenly they sneak further into the handle of the bat just enough to induce a 31% ICR across 40% usage. Whiffs aren’t there and he’s absolutely relying on Koufax coming through, but I gotta applaud the man for finding a way to survive in the majors. I just wish he was a little better at putting away batters with his sweeper – the pitch averages a 20% putaway rate to RHB across the majors, but Lively’s? A horrible 11% clip last year. That does make me wonder if a 22% strikeout rate is possible…

Now to LHB. This one is even more interesting with Lively sitting away with his four-seamer early, then mixing in sweepers, changeups, and curveballs around the four-seamer until OH SNAP! A front-hip sinker! Half of the sinkers he threw to LHB came in two-strike counts and while it wasn’t the greatest strikeout pitch, it surprised them well enough to induce outs aplenty. YOU RASCAL!

I want to remind y’all that the end result of this approach returned a 3.81 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with a 19% strikeout rate and an average of roughly five innings per start. Sure, he could do the same and become more efficient with the sweeper in two-strike counts, but even then, is this going to get good enough to roll with consistently in 12-teamers? Probably not? I sure hope so, for the sake of the craft of pitching, dangit. It’s cool that a guy can figure out a way to make it work without throwing over 91 mph nor having an element of filth in the tank.

Quick Take: Lively doesn’t have the arsenal to suggest he can do a whole lot to improve upon his 2024 season with a high likelihood of command regression coming in the year ahead. Still, I’ll hold out a touch of hope the sweeper can earn more punchouts as he keeps the same precision, making him a hopeful 15-team Toby.

147. Kyle Hart (SDP, LHP)

Hart was the KBO’s equivalent of the Cy Young winner last season and the Padres signed him with the full intent of being their SP #5. MLB Trade Rumors outlines Hart with a four-seamer up and exceptional changeup underneath, an approach that we’ve seen work for LHP across the majors. There’s a sweeper to deal with LHB as well and it led to a 29% strikeout rate in 157 IP with just 6% walks. It’s the KBO, of course, but that should outline his control and a fair amount of strikeout potential.

And of course, Lance Brodzdowski did a stupid good breakdown of Hart via his must-read Substack. He isn’t so confident in the stuff here and it makes all the sense.

Huh. I wonder how good that changeup actually is and if the sweeper is good enough to make LHB suffer. I suspect the four-seamer is a weak point that he’ll have to get crafty finding spots for, but maybe a sinker against LHB and a heavy focus on the slowball + backdoor sweepers will be enough to mask the pitch. This is all speculation, of course, but I’d be willing to take a shot in an NL-Only league as a sleeper Toby play. H*ck, he could be a sneaky play in 15-teamers or even a streamer in 12-teamers given regular starts in San Diego and no other clear options to steal the SP #5 spot. Pay attention.

Quick Take: Hart may be a crafty southpaw with a great changeup who does enough to give you middling ratios across six frames for a Win and potential QS. Or be a detrimental player who isn’t worth your time. At the very least, he has the inside lane to the SP #5 spot for the Padres and there’s value to be had in that.

148. Jack Leiter (TEX, RHP)

I’ll continue to stand here and tell you that Leiter’s four-seamer is stupid awesome and I can’t believe it got hit as hard as it did last year. It has all the metrics you want from velocity to shape and extension, but it had a 54% ICR to RHB and I’m still sad about it. Yes, the slider could have done more and was hung constantly, allowing batters to chase heaters and trust themselves to adapt to sliders, BUT STILL. It does make me think a sinker would help Leiter just to help get guys off the four-seamer a touch more, too. He truly has a gifted heater and I fail to believe there isn’t a tweak made here or there to let it soar.

Maybe I’m too high on the slider and waving off its horrific swing and miss ability a bit too aggressively, which is more of a question about his command moving forward than anything else. Watching Leiter, you can sense his lack of confidence with each pitch, getting glimpses of proper placement only before it slipped shortly after, enveloped by the ringing descension of our collective groans. I want to believe he can get to that point, but it may take another full year to get there and I’m already concerned about my anxiety starting Leiter with any regularity.

A third pitch would help plenty here. The sinker for RHB, sure, but anything else against LHB, which could be an increase of his curveball from 14% to 25% or more. Just something to help him stay in counts and keep batters from sitting dead-red on the heater.

I’ll be looking for Leiter to impress me in the spring. I’m skeptical he’ll earn a rotation spot over the front five and Kumar, though if he has tweaked his command or added another weapon to pave the way for his four-seamer, Leiter can force the hand of the Rangers in a hurry. I’m not banking on Leiter’s command being at a high enough level, though hot dang do I want to see it.

Quick Take: Leiter’s four-seamer is among the best, but lacks the pieces behind it to squeeze the most out of it, especially without top-of-the-line command. Expect Leiter to reach those heights in due time instead of out of the gate in April, making him an arm to watch, not one to draft.

149. Johan Oviedo (PIT, RHP)

Yes, we’re all in disbelief that Oviedo threw 177.2 innings in 2023. It also explains the TJS surgery after the season that took him out of 2024 as he hopes to get back into the rotation out of camp. The good news? There’s little competition, save for Bubba Chandler, who may force his way onto the squad after we saw Jones explode onto the scene last year. Assuming Oviedo beats out one of Chandler or Falter, I’ll be curious to see if it’s more of the same or if Oviedo can fix his biggest issue: control. But isn’t that the last thing to return post TJS? …normally, yes. I’M CROSSING EVERY FINGER I HAVE. Thanks, he appreciates it.

It may seem odd, but Oviedo has more skills than your standard “whatever” arm in Pittsburgh. The last time we saw him, Oviedo featured an elite slider that worked well against both RHB and LHB, while displaying a trio of pitches that stayed under a 40% ICR to both sides of the plate. Velocity wasn’t an issue at 96 mph with his heater and it came with – get this – over seven feet of extension. The problem? He can’t locate it, with sinker-esque drop and little-to-no whiffs.

So here’s the situation. If we see Oviedo in the spring and he’s A) Throwing a ton of fastball strikes without damage, B) Still earning whiffs with his slider, and C) Flexes some third pitch that shows promise (is it the curveball again? A changeup? Dare I say a cutter in the low 90s?), then you may want to consider him as a sleeper for your deeper formats. In 12-teamers, you can ignore Oviedo until we get data that shows something has genuinely changed through his TJS-recovery process. I sincerely hope we see a pitcher reborn and taking full advantage of his elite skills (slider, velocity, and extension).

Quick Take: Don’t rule out Oviedo completely as he returns from TJS. His slider was an elite pitch that made us enforce the Huascar Rule, though his 96 mph velocity and 7+ feet of extension open the door for growth toward a promising 12-teamer arm. Don’t expect the development to be there out of camp, though, and label him as a dark horse sleeper for NL-Only leagues.

150. Max Meyer (MIA, RHP)

Meyer has a great slider. And that’s it. The four-seamer had one game of earning seven whiffs against Atlanta and failed to hit five otherwise, returning a sub 7% SwStr rate for the year. The changeup failed to return a 50% strike rate. But yes, it’s a great slider and he’s a young arm. I have little faith in his heaters massively improving with its poor shape & extension, making his changeup (or something else?) the only path toward consistent fantasy production. No thanks.