2024 Prospect List: Top 100 Dynasty Baseball Prospects 2.0

The first update of the year is always the biggest. Although the season has only just begun, there is already plenty of fluctuation between this update and the original version of the 2024 prospect list. A lot can be seen in the first month of the season. For some, a breakout that was hoped for does not seem to be coming to fruition. For others, noticeable changes are causing them to fly up the list. Keep reading to find out the new top 100 prospects for dynasty baseball players. In addition, there are notes on four other players that dynasty managers need to keep their eye on.

Prospect List Rules:

• All players must have prospect eligibility.
• This list is only for prospects in the minor leagues, no major league players are included.
• Maximum of two positions listed per player
• Primarily weighted for standard 5×5 leagues, but all league types are considered.

 

Prospect List Graduates:

This section of the prospect list is reserved for players who have recently been promoted to the Major Leagues. This month, the following prospects were promoted to Majors and would have landed inside of this list: Jackson Chourio, Colt Keith, Wyatt Langford, Jared Jones, Kyle Harrison, Jackson Holliday, Jackson Merrill, Curtis Mead, Jonatan Clase, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Heston Kjerstad, and Andy Pages.

 

Top 50 Prospect Notes

 

Matt Shaw, #2 Chicago Cubs

 

With Wyatt Langford already in the Major Leagues, Matt Shaw has been thrust into the spotlight of dynasty baseball. In a draft loaded with top-end hitting talent, Shaw fell right into the Cubs’ lap at 13th overall and is quickly looking like one of the biggest draft-day steals. This should not come as a surprise to anybody as all Shaw has done for the past several years is hit. He dominated collegiate pitching during his time at the University of Maryland and is doing the same professionally.

Shaw got his feet wet at the Complex Level and Low-A last season posting a 170 wRC+ across his first 38 professional games. He crushed eight home runs and stole 15 bases. For reference, he was on a 28-homer, 53-steal pace prorated over 600 plate appearances. Shaw has managed to look even more impressive early on in 2024. Sent to Double-A, Shaw currently owns a wRC+ of over 200 with three home runs and five stolen bases.

Shaw is not just doing one thing well, but rather has looked impressive across the board. He is a plus runner who has demonstrated the ability to effectively steal bases. He has already stolen 20 across his brief professional career and projects to steal 20-30 per season at the Major League level.

Shaw’s power has been excellent. He consistently impacts the baseball with high exit velocities. His understanding of the strike zone and patience at the plate forces pitchers to pitch in the zone where Shaw can make them pay on any mistake they make.

MLB's No. 50 prospect Matt Shaw goes oppo for his second homer of the year.@Cubs | @smokiesbaseball pic.twitter.com/d40c6s8a7w

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 14, 2024

His power and speed both profile as plus tools, but the hit tool has really stood out. Shaw’s contact rates at every level have been excellent. He has great control of the bat and has shown a willingness to use the entire field. His swing drives balls into the gaps taking what the pitchers give him and producing plenty of line drives. There are very few weaknesses in his swing and approach.

The question is quickly becoming how long will Chicago keep Shaw in the Minor Leagues? Despite being drafted just last year, Shaw is making a strong case that he is already too advanced for Minor League pitching. From a dynasty perspective, he profiles to be a five-category contributor. He is never going to steal the most bases, or lead the league in home runs but he will provide valuable contributions across the board. He has the on-base skills to bat toward the top of the lineup and the power to consistently drive in runners who get on ahead of him. Shaw is one of the best prospects in baseball and deserves every ounce of recognition he is receiving.

 

 

Aidan Miller, #35 Philadelphia Phillies

 

The Phillies prioritized the infield in back-to-back drafts from 2018 to 2019 selecting Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott. Since then, their draft strategy has focused on pitching before shifting gears to Justin Crawford in 2022. Last year, they returned to the infield as Aidan Miller fell into their laps at 27th overall. Throughout much of the draft process, Miller was viewed by many as one of the top high school bats in last year’s loaded offensive class. A broken hamate bone led to his Draft Day slide and the Phillies already appear to have gotten one of the biggest steals from round one.

Sometimes, all it takes is one look at a player to know they belong and that is exactly the case with Miller. His poise and calmness in the box is years beyond his age. He is patient, knowing that his excellent eye will force pitchers to work over the plate. At the same time, he is aggressive in the zone with strong contact rates thanks to excellent bat control. He uses the whole field with a swing never selling out for power or prioritizing contact too much. Miller is a professional hitter through and through and that much is clear from just a few glimpses.

From a dynasty perspective, Miller’s raw skills have been on full display this season. After stealing four bases in a small 20-game sample last year, Miller is already up to five this season. His speed profiles closer to average, but strong baseball instincts allow it to play up and help him profile as a 12-15 steal player in the future.

The real value is found through his bat. Miller’s hit tool is superb. As previously mentioned, he drives the ball to all fields and profiles to hit tons of doubles. His contact rates are impressive considering Miller is still just 19 years old. Although his exit velocities this season have not been anything special, Miller has already connected on two home runs and his power should continue developing into a plus tool.

There is a possibility Miller’s long-term home is at third base despite although the Phillies are giving him a chance to stick at short. He has displayed strong athleticism early on in his professional career and the ability to stick at short would increase his dynasty value. Regardless of where he lands long-term, Miller is going to be an offensive force at the plate. He moves up significantly on the second edition of the prospect list coming in at 36th overall

 

Prospect List Part 1

 

Back-Half Top 100 Prospect Notes

 

Cam Collier, #61 Cincinnati Reds

I remained patient on Cam Collier for the entirety of last season but during my off-season deep dive, I decided I was too high. As soon as Collier drops down my list, here he comes flying back up. Collier took the “Bryce Harper route” to professional baseball graduating high school early and attending a JuCo before being drafted. He played the entirety of the 2023 season at just 18 years old and played like, well like he was 18 years old. He struggled for most of the season although for those looking, there was plenty to be encouraged about.

Last season, Collier was one of only three batters under the age of 19 to walk at least 12% of the time with a strikeout rate less than 25% (min of 390 AB). The other two were Nelson Rada and Samuel Basallo. His first full season was not perfect. Collier struggled to get the ball in the air consistently and finished the season with just six home runs.

Just 14 games into his second season and Collier looks like a different player. He has already matched his total home runs from the entirety of last season. Collier is hitting the ball in the air 12% more than he did last season. This change in approach paired with an increase in his pull rate has helped Collier unlock more game power. Collier has the raw power to be a 30-home-run bat.

 

Cristofer Torin, #96 Arizona Diamondbacks

Very rarely do you see 18-year-olds with a hit tool like Cristofer Torin’s. Splitting time between the Complex League and Low-A last season, Torin struck out just 13.8% of the time. His hit tool is the primary reason the Diamondbacks have been so aggressive with him. Torin signed back in 2022, came stateside in 2023, and is off to a hot start in 2024. He could be one of 2024’s breakout prospects and creeps inside of the top 100 in this update.

Torin’s hit tool goes beyond his plus-plus contact skills. Torin does not simply swing at anything. He is patient at the plate with an understanding of the strike zone that is years beyond his age. Last season, Torin was the only 18-year-old to strike out less than 15% of the time while also walking more than 10% of the time. This season, Torin is showing off even better plate discipline while repeating Low-A. Early on, he is walking more than 20% of the time. With a plus hit tool and plus plate discipline, Torin profiles to be an OBP monster.

Strong OBP numbers are great, especially when they lead to stolen bases. Torin stole 21 bases last season and while he does not profile to be a prolific base stealer at the Major League level he should be a safe bet for 15-20. As he continues to mature, his speed is likely to slow down a touch which dynasty managers will gladly accept if it leads to more power.

The sample size is small, but Torin is showing off an increased willingness to pull the ball this season. After sitting in the mid-30s last season, Torin is pulling the ball over 50% of the time early on this year. More pulled balls should lead to a higher home run output.

There is already a lot to like in Torin’s profile and there is still plenty of time for him to continue developing. His plus hit tool provides a solid base for his future projection and the power seems to be coming. At this point, he profiles as a .280 hitter with excellent walk rates, 15 stolen bases, and 10 home runs. The upside however is even higher. A .300 average, 20 homers, and 20 stolen bases are not out of the question. Torin just breaks into the top 100 this month and could continue rising higher as the season moves along.

 

 

Prospects That Just Missed

 

Sebastian Walcott, Texas Rangers

 

Since hitting highlight-reel home runs last season, Sebastian Walcott has become a staple of most top 100 lists. Flashy, exciting, and uber-athletic are all ways to describe Walcott as a player. One look at his home runs and it is easy to fall in love.

432 ft, 109 mph exit velo bomb from @swalcott242! 💪

First home run in the Arizona Complex League for the 17-year-old. Walcott is currently the youngest player in any complex league. pic.twitter.com/WiLP9mqA3E

— Rangers Player Development (@TEXPlayerDev) June 25, 2023

So, why does Walcott fall out of the top 100? With high upside often comes high risk. Walcott is as risky as they come and the track record for players who strike out as much as he has in the lower levels of the Minor Leagues is not encouraging. After striking out 29.8% of the time last year, Walcott is striking out 35.1% this year. His contact rates pose a serious concern for his ability to make it to the Major Leagues. He is even yet to steal a base or hit a home run this year. Walcott’s raw tools keep him in consideration for a spot in the top 100 based on upside alone. For now though, he is nothing more than a prospect to dream on.

 

Cade Kuehler, Atlanta Braves

 

Cade Kuehler is the definition of “can throw the kitchen sink at you”. Kuehler has several different pitches in his arsenal with multiple variations of fastballs, breaking balls, and off-speed pitches. The Braves took Kuehler 70th overall in last year’s draft after he put together a strong final season at Campbell University. Kuehler’s stuff really took off following his freshman year. He joined the starting rotation full-time and struck out 11.9 and 11.2 batters per nine innings in his final two seasons. While the pure stuff is not overpowering, his ability to keep opposing batters off balance provides plenty of ceiling for dynasty managers to dream on.

Kuehler’s transition to professional baseball has gone as smoothly as anybody could have hoped. He fired seven scoreless innings at Low-A to finish the 2023 season and has picked up right where he left off. Kuehler is yet to surrender an earned run through his first two starts. His efficiency in both of those starts is what has stood out. Kuehler struggled limiting free passes in college but has only allowed one so far this year. He needed just 65 pitches to make it through four innings in his first start and followed that up with a dominant 68-pitch, 6-inning outing in his last appearance. The Braves have become one of the top organizations in developing pitching prospects and Kuehler could be next in line. A few more dominant outings like he has had so far and he will find himself inside of the top 100 on next month’s update.

 

Deep Prospects to Note

 

Ralphy Velazquez, Cleveland Guardians

 

The Guardians took Ralphy Velazquez with their first round in last year’s draft. Originally viewed by many as a catcher, the Guardians have been quick to move him off the position. So far, Velazquez has solely played first base this season. Often, a move to first negatively impacts a prospect’s dynasty value but not here. The move to first likely accelerates Velazquez’s track to the majors and his performances have been excellent so far. He is up to four home runs already with excellent plate discipline. Velazquez has not generated a ton of fanfare yet, but he could start to if he keeps on hitting.

Four homers in his past six games.@CleGuardians No. 4 prospect Ralphy Velazquez is red-hot for the @LynHillcats. pic.twitter.com/IAQ6I00JJs

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 17, 2024

 

Santiago Suarez, Tampa Bay Rays

 

Each season the Rays have at least one prospect that comes out of nowhere into the dynasty limelight. The season is still young, but Santiago Suarez is an early candidate for 2024. Through three starts, Suarez’s strikeout rate has taken off. After sitting around 20-25% through his first two professional seasons, his strikeout rate has spiked to 34.5% this year. The Rays appear to have unlocked a new level of performance from Suarez in just his second season in the organization (previously with Miami). His fastball sits comfortably in the mid to high 90s with a big breaking curveball and slider that takes the shape of a sweeper. Suarez’s stuff appears to be catching up to his already excellent control and he could fly up boards as the season moves along.