Hitter List 8/3: Top 150+ Hitters For 2022 – Week 17

• As a reminder, these rankings are geared toward a standard, daily, 12-team H2H redraft league, as that is typically the most popular fantasy baseball format. They will only factor in the five standard categories: Runs, RBI, Home Runs, Batting Average, and Stolen Bases.

• I would recommend not paying super close attention to the specific ranks of each player, and honing in more on the respective tiers that they’re in. Each tier represents a grouping of players that I think could arguably perform at a similar level, and/or carry similar levels of risk in terms of injury concerns or playing time obstacles. If Player X is ranked at #55 and Player Y is ranked at #65, but they’re in the same tier, it means that I personally like Player X a lot better, but think there’s a valid argument to be made for Player Y performing just as well.

• I take rankings like this as more of an art than a science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their own biases, strategic philosophies, determinations of risk, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. Jon’s way of evaluating and ranking players has worked out well for Jon (and me) over the years, but it might not be a great fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your league mate’s player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could it’d be weird. In a bad way.

• Yes, these ranks vary from the official PL positional rankings that I also developed in the offseason. That’s because these are only mine – no input from others. This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.

• I’m using 20 games as the threshold for positional eligibility in the List. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions. This is just a maintenance thing and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!

And now a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:

• I’ve gotten more level-headed over the years regarding weighing stolen bases, but I still think they’re precious given how rare they’re becoming. Every steal is important, so don’t take those “chip-in” steals for granted. Finding steals at the end of the season can be a dogfight.

• If I did want to get some insight on whether what I’m seeing is new or if it’s just normal fluctuation, I’d use my favorite tool—the rolling chart. While we don’t have much for rolling data in 2022, you can see where they currently are on a rolling chart and see how it compares to their career trajectory.

• No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), and lineup context. I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators. Unlike Nick, I’ll also look at other rankings as I prepare my own to feel how my colleagues value certain players, positions, or stats. I recommend trying as many of these things as you can until you find what you like.

• Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is really neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.

• On a similar note, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.

• Anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 at-bats regardless of true talent. Heck, it could even last a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which of these will be true until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends give us hints.

• If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments!

Ranking Notes

Check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast featuring myself and Joe Gallina, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!

Just so you all are aware, instead of “The Next 30”, I decided to convert it to a “Taxi Squad” and left little blurbs for each player. Enjoy!

TIER 1

• Finally decided to expand this tier. There is still not much to talk about, I just think recent developments have closed the gap.

• Juan Soto will get more RBI now, though the real improvements (such as getting the ball in the air more) were already well underway in Washington and should continue in San Diego. His fantasy value doesn’t change in the short or long term, though, since he was elite and now he’s still elite.

TIER 2

• The only real change here was the removal of Mike Trout. I’ll get to him later.

TIER 3

• Julio Rodríguez is on the IL, but talk out of Seattle makes it seem as though it’s a minimum stay. At this stage of the game, volume is becoming less of a concern in head-to-head leagues as we get closer to the playoffs. Few players get more fantasy juice out of a plate appearance than Rodriguez, so his rank stays up high for me despite projection calculators putting him closer to the 50-75 range.

• Every piece of good news about Fernando Tatis Jr. moved him up. While he’s not the pure hitter Juan Soto is, he may be the better fantasy player for the rest of the year. Of course, that comes with huge risks, so he’s not up in Tier 1 quite yet (and it may be hard for him to get there since we don’t have much time to build confidence in his health).

• I was too slow to move Fransico Lindor up and this is me correcting that misjudgment.

• AUSTIN RILEY DROPPED?! WHY ARE SO YOU BAD AT THIS?! That’s a loaded question – there are a lot of reasons I’m bad at this, though the reason Riley “dropped” is because I chose to put Lindor just ahead of him. If you wanted him ahead of Tatis and Lindor, then he’d be at a plus-two instead of a minus-one. It’s semantics.

TIER 4

• It’s hard to care about Anthony Rizzo’s .230 batting average when he could finish the season with 35 home runs and 10 stolen bases. I didn’t realize he was producing so much. His career high for home runs, if you’re curious, is 32. He’ll beat that this year. Heck, if he gets hot, he might even beat it this month.

TIER 5

• I know Bo Bichette is going to turn it around, but I don’t know when…or where…or why…or how.

• If you’re worried about Kyle Schwarber’s slump, let me assure you it has nothing to do with the derby and everything to do with the fact that he’s been an incredibly streaky hitter for his entire career. The ups and downs are par for the course.

TIER 6

• Matt Chapman is on fire. If you look at the rolling chart below, you’ll see he’s hotter than he’s been at any other time in the last five years (and it’s not all that close). This is very interesting, and a lot of it is being fueled by a much higher line drive rate. This is a trend we’ve seen throughout his career, which you can also see below.

• Brandon Lowe hit 39 home runs last season, and since being activated from the IL, he’s slashing .314/.364/.510 with just an 18.2% strikeout rate in 55 plate appearances. He had a monster second half in 2021 and there’s no reason he can’t have another in 2022.

TIER 7

• We’re starting to get to a spot where I had several guys who needed to drop a long way, so try to ignore the small moves upward for everyone in this tier.

• If there’s one bump to call out, it’s Whit Merrifield. He could be a sparkplug for the Blue Jays, especially if they let him get close to the top of the lineup.

TIER 8

TIER 9

• I won’t merely repeat all the posts about Trey Mancini’s spray chart and how much better it plays in Houston, but that’s a very real thing. He’s pulling the ball more than ever this year, and the changes to Camden Yards punished him for it. That won’t be the case in his new home. Few other parks cater as well to right-handed power, and if you’re into expected home runs, you should know that if he played all of his games in Houston, we’d expect him to have 10 more home runs than he does now (21 total). If he’s available in any leagues, go get him right now.

• Salvador Perez is back and is crushing the ball. A little more of this and he makes a jump to the top tier of catchers.

• Jonathan India continues to look like 2021 Jonathan India, and that has me getting pretty aggressive with his rank. I’ll probably hold here for two weeks or so unless he flounders or gets even hotter.

TIER 10

TIER 11

• Riley Greene is striking out too much and I don’t think that keeps happening for long. It’s never really been an issue before, and it’s worth noting that he’s an extra-base hit in three of his last five games. The plus-seven is misleading, as most of it is from guys who dropped like a rock down the list.

• This is where I have Mike Trout for now. If the rotational exercises go well, he jumps way up. If they don’t, well, let’s try not to think about it.

• Jeremy Peña is going through a rather ugly adjustment period, but that’s what it is—an adjustment period.

TIER 12

• Justin Turner will be a force when healthy, but it’s not clear how often that will be from now through September.

• Anthony Santander, at the time of writing, is on a 13-game hitting streak where he’s also hitting for power.

• Nelson Cruz probably has gas left in the tank but has no one to drive home anymore. You also have to wonder how much motivation he has to play for this team right now.

• When trying to time a Javier Báez hot streak, you’re looking for streaks of good plate discipline. It’s a sign he’s seeing the ball well, and it’s something he’s doing right now. In his 50 trips to the plate in the second half, he’s hitting .302 with a respectable 8% walk rate and 22% strikeout rate. The power is fine (he’s slugging .442), and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s smashing home runs and stealing bases for a little while very soon.

TIER 13

• Josh Rojas has been quite useful, and I kept thinking he’d drop off but instead he keeps hitting. The versatility and consistency are impressive and he looks like he could be a 10 home run, 20 stolen base player with a decent batting average over roughly 120 plate appearances.

And now, once again, it’s time for the Hitter List:

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