Welcome to the newest list to debut on the PitcherList site. The dynasty team is continuing to grow here as we have great content coming out weekly with everything from performance reports to a consistently awesome prospect podcast. Adding to the already great lineup, I now have the honor of bringing you a top prospect list for dynasty leagues. Before diving in, make sure to read through the ProspectList rules below.
ProspectList Rules:
- All players must have prospect eligibility.
- This list is only for prospects in the Minor Leagues, no Major League players are included.
- Maximum of 2 positions listed per player
- Primarily weighted for standard 5×5 leagues, but all league types are considered.
Top 50 Prospect Notes
Jordan Lawlar, #1 SS Arizona Diamondbacks
What better way to start this list than talking about the player ranking at the very top. This might come as a surprise to many considering that Jordan Lawlar is not off to the fastest start in Double-A this season. Most prospect lists prefer the new flashy toy (Jackson Holliday who still ranks fourth on this list) or the toolsy Elly De La Cruz (who comes in at fifth), but I am sticking with Lawlar here, so hear me out and let me explain why.
Like Holliday, Lawlar is a former first-round pick who has seen early success in his career. He made his professional debut in 2021, but really took off last season. At just 19 years old, Lawlar made quick work of both Low-A and High-A before earning himself a promotion to Double-A. This trajectory sound familiar to anybody (Holliday is already in High-A during his first full professional season)? Overall on the year, Lawlar hit 16 home runs with 29 stolen bases and a .303 average. He also managed to maintain double-digit walk rates at each level he played at, which is impressive for a player so young.
One of the biggest concerns with Lawlar entering this season was a high ground ball rate. Jordan Walker is the most recent example of a prospect dominating Minor League pitching overshadowing launch angle issues resulting in struggles at the Major League level. Lawlar has lowered his ground ball rate from just under 50% last year, all the way down to 35.6% this year. He is getting the ball in the air more and has even managed to increase his pull percentage. Early in his career, Lawlar posted impressive HR/FB% rates which is one of the most sticky stats when forecasting future Major League success. More fly balls combined with a higher pull percentage should only increase his home run output. Not to mention, Lawlar is already up to ten stolen bases on the year. Despite a line drive rate of 24.7%, Lawlar’s BABIP is .239. That will not continue.
Okay, okay, okay so why Lawlar over Holliday? The success Holliday is experiencing in his first full season is reminiscent of the success Lawlar has already experienced. He is dominating the lower levels of the Minor Leagues flashing the power, hit tool, and speed that are eye-popping. The issue? A ground ball rate near 55%. I am going with Lawlar over Holliday because we are seeing Lawlar make the necessary adjustments to get the ball in the air already. Holliday still needs to prove he is capable of doing that if he wants to maintain this success at higher levels of competition. I might be in the minority, but Lawlar>Holliday at this point.
Heston Kjerstad, #27 OF Baltimore Orioles
Heston Kjerstad stood out as a player that was important to hit on. Kjerstad comes in at 27th overall on this list and has been one of the most notable risers in most rankings early on this year. After being the second overall pick in 2020, Kjerstad dealt with health issues that prevented him from making his professional debut until last season. He got off to a fast start in Low-A before struggling in High-A and the Orioles opted to send him to the AFL for more work. He has not stopped hitting since. After winning the AFL MVP, Kjerstad is dominating Double-A pitching. He is slashing .304/.382/.589 with ten home runs and three steals.
The question with Kjerstad was never the raw tools. Throughout the draft process, he was known to have big-time power potential, but the issue was swing and miss concerns. He ran into some trouble in this area at High-A, but those struggles seem to be a thing of the past. So far in Double-A, Kjerstad has cut his strikeout rate down to 16%. A swinging strike rate of 15% prevents Kjerstad from moving even higher on this list, but the early returns are still encouraging. There is massive pop in his bat and his swing is smooth and consistent with the ability to use the whole field. He is going to be a doubles monster in the Major Leagues and deserves more attention than he is getting thanks to the loaded farm system he is a part of.
Back-Half Top 100 Prospect Notes
Ty Madden, #61 Detroit Tigers
Before being drafted in the first round of the 2021 draft, many viewed Ty Madden as a bland prospect. What I mean is that sure, he had a high chance of making it to the Major Leagues, but what was really his ceiling? Back of the rotation? His wind-up lacked deception and he did not have any special movement or velocity to make up for this. Well, since joining the Tigers, the team has worked to completely transform him. They have changed his arm slot to add deception, added a sweeper to his repertoire all while failing to lose any of the attributes that made Madden so safe.
Madden saw a big strikeout jump after his promotion to Double-A which is when things really started to click. He posted a 2.78 ERA there last season and the Tigers decided to have him repeat Double-A to start 2023. So far, it has been more of the same for Madden who is striking out just under 30% of batters. His command seems to have improved, evidenced by the stark decline in home runs allowed. Madden deserves more recognition than he receives. He might not be the flashiest, but profiles as a mid-rotation arm who could be in the Major Leagues at some point later this year. This warrants a spot inside the top 100 on this list.
Kahlil Watson, #69 Miami Marlins
Most of the talk around Watson since the start of last season has been negative. High strikeout rates, poor attitude, and a surefire bust have been most of the discussions around the young prospect. How can I rank him inside my top 70 if that is the case? The answer is simple: upside. Watson has some of the biggest upside in the Minor Leagues and his maturity and improvements are going virtually unnoticed. Up until his benching on July 1st of last season, Watson was batting .221/.274/.372 with a 39.3% strikeout rate and a 6.0% walk rate. From that point forward, he hit .260/.371/.481 with a more manageable 26.6% strikeout rate and a 13.7% walk rate. These improvements went unnoticed as his swinging strike rate on the year was still 18.8%.
Flip the page to 2023, and Watson is making even more improvements. His strikeout rate? Down slightly to 26.2%. His walk rate? Up to 16.4%. His swinging strike? Down all the way to 11.4%. He has nine stolen bases in just 30 games while also making a conscious effort to pull the ball more. The early 2023 stats do not jump off the page but take these improvements and then watch the kind of raw power in Watson’s bat.
Kahlil Watson with his first homer since April 8th yesterday. Broke a 5-30 streak he was on with a two hit day.
.253/.400/.402 in May.#Marlins pic.twitter.com/cgOyYoNEgj
— Fish on the Farm (@marlinsminors) May 22, 2023
Watson should be a top-100 prospect on all lists. I feel good about him at 69.
Prospect List Part 2
Prospects That Just Missed
Yu Min Lin, Arizona Diamondbacks
The case can be made that Yu-Min Lin should already be in the top 100. At 18 years old, Lin dominated the Complex League and carried that success to Low-A where he continued to accel. Now in 2023, Lin is showing the same dominant performance at High-A. He fits the stereotype of a “crafty-lefty” with a deceptive delivery paired with two plus breaking pitches and an excellent changeup. His deep arsenal helps keep hitters off balance leading to increased strikeout rates. The only thing holding Lin back from breaking the top 100 is the lack of fastball velocity. His strikeout rate has dipped this year at High-A and there are some concerns this trend could continue as the competition increases. Still, Lin is an exciting pitching prospect that you need to have on your radar.
The Rockies are known for taking projectable bats that leave fantasy managers dreaming about what their potential could look like in Coors Field. Unfortunately, they tend to struggle with development, and we are too often disappointed. Well, they might have found a special prospect in Jordan Beck. After posting solid numbers in his brief 2022 debut, Beck has come out of the gates firing on all cylinders. He has already hit 13 home runs with an average north of .282. He made swing adjustments to get more launch on the ball which has resulted in more fly balls and fewer grounders. This change is fueling a home run outburst that is vaulting him closer to the top 100. He is 22 in High-A, so I would like to see him continue this success against tougher competition before I move him up further.
Deep Prospects to Note
Yeiner Fernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers always seem to turn up international catching prospects. Yeiner Fernandez might be the next name to attract attention. He pairs excellent contact skills with a mature understanding of the zone. His profile reminds me of Gabriel Moreno with a smooth swing path that is designed more for gap power than to launch balls out of the park. If he can lower his ground ball rate by just a little, he could really skyrocket up prospect lists. So far this year, he is hitting .283 with four home runs and two stolen bases.
Chase Hampton, New York Yankees
Nobody thought twice about the Yankees taking Chase Hampton in the sixth round of the 2022 draft. However, they clearly saw something they could work with as he has already added two mph on his fastball and a cutter to his arsenal. The early results have been overwhelmingly positive as Hampton is striking out over 40% of the batters he faces. The Yankees have slowly been letting Hampton work deeper and deeper into games speaking to the belief he has what it takes to make it as a starter in the Major Leagues. New York might have found a diamond in the rough with Hampton. Now might be your last chance to get in before his name becomes even more popular.
It has to be said that, at this point, it seems like ranking anyone other than Elly De La Cruz first overall requires a very high degree, and ill-advised amount, of mental gymnastics. Elly has the highest ceiling of any prospect out there and he’s already destroying triple-A pitchers, so it is pretty difficult to see what amount and type of risk he carries that drags his value down below that of Jordan Lawlar. Elly is only 5 months older than Lawlar, both are shortstops, and Lawlar is currently scuffling at double-A. That seems like an awful lot of weight to be giving to Elly’s strikeout/contact rate “problem,” especially given the significant strides he has made in his plate approach in May (of course, small sample size caveat applies). Anyway, interesting list.
I couldn’t have said that better myself. Lawlar’s speed is demonic, but he looks overmatched in AA, and Elly De La Cruz is flat out murdering AAA pitching right now. His slash line in 33 games is .304/.401/.659! The balls he hits seem to carry, and carry some more, and continue carrying out of multiple ballparks. I suppose if you want to nitpick, he has swiped 11 bags but has been caught 6 times, and his K/BB ratio, while improving, is not quite Soto-esque. His arm is Chapman-level strong and he does have 3 errors – compared to Lawar’s 5 errors in 37 games. He is playing like a 5 tool superstar and he’s the most exciting player in all of baseball right now. Oh yeah, and he hit a walk off HR last night off a 98mph fastball. With India, McClain, and De La Cruz, the Reds middle infield could be the best in MLB.
EDLC just went 0-5 with 5 strike outs in a game. This is not meant to belittle his massive success or upside, but to point out that too many people are acting like he’s a sure fire, no miss prospect without cause for any concern. His hit tool and pitch selection is a concern. It is simply not as clear cut as all of the EDLC fan boys (girls) want it to be.
Ranking Lawlar over Elly is more of a reflection of my belief in Lawlar than my hate for EDLC. The strides that EDLC has shown so far have been incredibly encouraging although I still worry about the swing and miss in his game. I would absolutely agree that EDLC has the highest ceiling of any prospect in baseball. That being said, I do not think he has the highest likelihood of hitting it. The competition at the Major League level is a huge jump and I worry they might be able to better exploit Elly’s holes. Maybe I am wrong but that is how I see it right now.
So, is Acuna not your #1 player in the bigs because he has close to a 55% GB rate? I think arguing GB rate is kind of weak. Lawler’s biggest issue is his contact skills. I guess the question I have is, outside of speed, what skills does Lawler have that’s better than Holliday? Because, I think Holliday is a better overall hitter – better contact, better command of the strike zone, and so far in their professional careers, better power, .264/.260 ISOs for Holliday in A/A+, compared to Lawler’s .253/.189 at those same levels.
I think that Lawlar has more game power. He has a swing better designed to pull the ball and is showing an increased ability to get it in the air more. Both of those should lead to higher home run rates. I agree Holliday has a better hit tool. Acuna and Soto are generational type talents. Maybe Holliday is a generational talent, but I would rather not treat him as an outlier. 22 non Soto/Acuna hitters have a GB% north of 49%. Their average wRC+ is 99. In my opinion, it just increases the chances of struggles. He still ranks fourth on my list so I clearly am a fan and there is plenty of time to see this change, his .473 BABIP will not last forever
No love for Bo Naylor?
He worked two walks off Tony Gonsolin and hit a 112 mph double on which he flashed top 1 percentile foot speed in his MLB debut. And, in his first AB of his second game, he hit a 458 foot homer at 115 mph that almost left GABP.
Is there still performance risk to his game? Maybe. But, again, given his massive ceiling and what he’s done at triple-A and now MLB this season, what prospect has a better combination of upside and risk??? Someone thriving in A ball? Someone scuffling in double A? That just doesn’t track.