Top 400 Starting Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball 2025 – SP Rankings 21-40

TOP 100 SP RANKINGS UPDATE – 3/24/2025 HERE

THESE RANKINGS ARE OUTDATED

Let’s continue ranking the best 400 starting Pitchers to draft in fantasy baseball for 2025. Remember, these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation. I’ve also added the Top 100 SP table at the bottom of this article.

For a table of the full 400 SP (really 450!) and to read this article Ad-Free (or to simply support me for putting all of this together!), make sure to subscribe to PL+ or PL Pro where I have these rankings inside a massive Google Sheet. You can access the sheet inside our subscriber Discord.

To get full context of these rankings, read my Rankings outline at the start of the 1-20 rankings and as always…

Tier 4 – Have A Holly Jolly Season

These are the rare few who are expected to go 6+ each start with all-around production each night. Some have more Win value than Strikeout value but are the clear studs among the landscape.

21. Pablo López (MIN, RHP)

As much as I adore PabLó, I have to recognize that he allows a ton of hits. The reason is simple: Batters swing at his four-seamer and he doesn’t have a secondary to make them stop. I would love López to embrace the sinker a touch more against RHB and ignore the .400+ BABIP it induced last season, possibly evening out its usage with his four-seamer to go the Wheeler route – you may not know, but López has elite 7.2 extension at 95+ mph. He already jams the sinker inside effectively, but turns to it roughly 15% of the time and that clip can increase.

The problem early in the season was his sweeper feel, which returned in June during his 14 strikeout game and never left him after. RHB should be dealt with effectively (like Wheeler!) with two heaters and a sweeper + the occasional changeup as well. Which brings us to the same problem as Wheeler: those pesky left-handed batters.

I wish PabLó still had the changeup of old. He’ll still say “The changeup is always there”, though it wasn’t quite as devastating as it used to be, with a five tick drop in O-Swing and a fall to a 61% strike rate against LHB. That puts more pressure on the four-seamer and curveball, the latter of which held a 52% ICR last year against LHB. Yikes.

There’s a world where López embraces the sinker and finds the old changeup with a touch better four-seamer command and soars to a 1.05 WHIP with sub 3.00 ERA and 27% strikeout rate. I’m a little skeptical that it’ll all wrap up nicely without bouts of turmoil, though I see a productive season with a floor better than the 4.08 ERA and 1.19 WHIP of 2024. You can rely on PabLó to help your teams for six months.

Quick Take: Without an overwhelming pitch to point to, López struggles to limit hits across his career, raising his WHIP away from elite SP levels. There’s room for growth with a larger embrace of fastball-mix to exploit his elite extension, while we hope for the changeup to rebound after a tough year. He’s safer than the 4.08 ERA suggests and should be trusted as a SP #2 for the year.

22. Justin Steele (CHC, LHP)

It would be in your best interest to not take Steele’s 2024 campaign at face value. After pulling his hamstring on opening day, Steele struggled to find a rhythm upon his return in May, while his September was disrupted by elbow soreness. The stretch of “I’m actually starting every five days and normal” was phenomenal. Steele’s four-month stretch between May 27th and August 27th returned a 2.45 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 26% K rate, and 7% BB rate across 102.2 IP and 17 starts. That’s a stud. The coolest stat? He had a 32% ICR across all his pitches in that time.

That last stat is Steele’s greatest skill – he’s stupid hard to barrel up. It may seem strange given a “two-pitch mix” of four-seamer and slider, but that masks the truth: Steele constantly manipulates his four-seamer and slider in at-bats to keep batters guessing.

His heater is more of a cutter that can straighten out at times when he wants to elevate. Its cut action has proper drop and glove-side movement, but with two strikes, Steele flattens the pitch upstairs and efficiently converts strikeouts with his fastball at an excellent 24% putaway rate. You love to see it.

The slider can be loopy or a bit tighter, shifting its vertical and horizontal bend at will. It helped Steele earn a 25% ICR with the pitch against RHB – a ridiculous feat against opposite-handed batters – while he features the traditional lefty-on-lefty breaker to cruise against LHB.

With his ability to generate low ICR marks and reliably sit above a 23% strikeout rate, Steele is a quintessential Holly who makes you feel great drafting as your SP #3, if not your SP #2. I suspect his elbow soreness of September (he missed only a few games) may allow him to fall further than his peers and I’d take advantage.

Quick Take: I see a reliable workhorse starter for the year ahead who has figured out how to earn strikes confidently since his struggles in 2022. His 1.20+ WHIP has become a relic of the past while he flirts with a 25% strikeout rate and can find the sixth constantly for a high Win chance. What’s not to like?

23. Bailey Ober (MIN, RHP)

We could play the game of “If you take away his first start…” or “If you remove his two starts that combined for 17 ER…” but I don’t think we need to do either one. Blowups will happen to every starter, Ober was unfortunate to have sizeable ones of 8 ER and 9 ER when it happened. It’s possible throwing 90-92 mph heaters makes Ober far more susceptible to the longball than others, leading to a 1.40 HR/9 across the last two years, though home run rate is the least sticky stat year-to-year and with an improving arsenal (and fastball adjustments), I imagine that number can come down closer to 1.00 for the year. That’ll make his ERA in the low-to-mid 3s with a stellar WHIP and strikeout rate with a sizeable number of Wins as a workhorse for the Twins. That sounds great, but you haven’t convinced me as to why. Oh duh, my favorite part when I get annoyingly verbose, HOW COULD I FORGET?!

Ober’s foundation is peppering that “slow” fastball upstairs, exploiting his elite 7.2 feet of extension to attack high and set up his absurd changeup down. It was the bread-and-butter of 2023, and it continued in 2024…to a degree. His four-seamer is still 84th percentile in hiLoc%, but its 62% clip fell over seventeen points from 2023 when it featured a near 80% hiLoc. It’s why we called him Oberizzi, after all.

It explains the fastball’s seven tick increase in ICR rate, the 87 point jump in wOBA, and decline in SwStr rate from 15% to a pedestrian 11% mark. However, Ober had more to offer this time around, allowing him to reduce its usage in favor of a new cutter at 86 mph (that’s kinda fast for a 91 mph heater, alright?) and I dig it.

The cutter is still a work in progress after shelving the slider, which was fantastic against LHB but wasn’t nearly as effective against RHB. Yet. This is the pitch Ober should be using to keep batters off the four-seamer, using his extension and a similar looking pitch at close velocity to confound batters inside the zone. He jammed LHB consistently with it at a 40% O-Swing and fantastic 78% inside location and if he gets a stronger feel with this four-seamer upstairs, I think he’ll have more success with the pitch against RHB in the year to come. It certainly finds strikes more than a typical new pitch, it just needs its leader to play its role.

These tweaks are all made possible by his fantastic changeup. LHB, RHB, it doesn’t matter with a dumb 73% strike rate and 28% SwStr rate to RHB last year, a pair of stats that make you think he barely used it. Nope. 24% usage. Yes, throw it. All the time please, thank you. He did get a little more on the side of the ball against LHB (typically as the target is generally more arm-side, leading to Ober getting slightly less on top of his changeup) and it led to more wastes and fewer chases down, but as PabLó likes to say, “The changeup is always there.”

I see a pitcher with a long leash in Minnesota with the potential to improve on two already impressive seasons (A 1.00 WHIP with a 27% strikeout rate across 180 innings in ’24 is impressive y’all, ignore the 3.98 ERA!). Given his ability to spot high heaters in the past, I’m willing to bet on Ober making the adjustment to get the hiLoc% up again, while the cutter could improve into a more stable offering across the board. He’s a high volume arm with strikeouts and good ratios. Why wouldn’t you want that?

Quick Take: Ober’s four-seamer dropped into the zone more often last year, which opened the door for his cutter to allow seven HRs and open the door for a few blowup games. His changeup is elite, the command is there, and with a clear path to an improved ERA, Ober is the perfect #2 starter for your fantasy teams.

24. Tanner Bibee (CLE, RHP)

Wow. I’m actually super in on Bibee for once. I’ve been pushing back against Bibee since he showed up based on two factors: His four-seamer is mediocre at best and he doesn’t have solid slider/changeup command. Especially the changeup. That thing hangs up there against LHB and it drives me up the wall. However, something shifted last year – he added a cutter at 2+ ticks harder than the slider and it is glorious. The combination of sliders and cutters to RHB combined for a low 30s ICR with a 20%+ SwStr rate across 38% usage, while the cutter itself handled LHB with ease at a 26% ICR in 15% usage. Use that pitch more, you rascal! Especially with the heater being so ineffective and the changeup failing to get down, leading to a low 15% SwStr rate and 35%+ ICR when it could be so much more.

That cutter really is a game-changer. Giving Bibee another effective strike pitch turns him away from a two-pitch arm to respective handedness, making life easier not just for the heater, but the slider as well. I’d be shocked if he didn’t use it more often in the year ahead while I’ll continue to leave messages on his answering machine about getting the changeup down. Heeeeeey it’s me again. I was worried you forgot what I said in the last message: If it’s slow, make it low!

I love Bibee’s team context in Cleveland (even if it means a few more HR to LHB at home) as he’ll get Wins with the expectation of finding the sixth in every start. His low walk rate makes a small WHIP attainable as well and the whole package is a “good ratios with over a strikeout per inning with 180 IP potential.” So you know, the exact mold of pitcher I target in drafts. Sign me up.

Quick Take: Bibee’s changeup command and four-seamer mediocrity still bothers me, but his new cutter is brilliant and can take another step forward in 2025, allowing for a reasonable expectation for more of the same – solid ratios with more than a strikeout per inning across roughly 180 frames. That’s a fantastic SP #2.

25. Bryce Miller (SEA, RHP)

I’ll be honest, writing about all of these Mariners pitchers and saying “Hey, they were great, but how much of that was actually the home park that might change?” is making me feel like y’all will hate me (WE GET IT NICK!) but if there is any pitcher who clearly benefited, it’s Miller and his atrocious home/road splits. I hate mentioning home/road splits given the heavy majority of the time it’s as simple as random grouping and not a true causation, but we know about Seattle’s 22% increase in strikeouts and…it is so apparent with Bryce. Home was bliss: 1.96 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 30% K rate, 0.54 HR/9. You know, the best pitcher in baseball. And while his time away from Seattle wasn’t an atrocity, he was distant from a Cy Young vote: 4.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 18% strikeout rate, 1.61 HR/9.

Knowing the arsenal at play, I can’t say I’m surprised. Bryce leans heavily on his four-seamer having success over the plate with elite iVB and HAVAA merged with average velocity and extension, which gets amplified by Seattle’s park effect. On the road, the pitch is easier to pick up and without a devastating array to back it up, Bryce settles for spinning the grassy roulette wheel, hoping the ball lands in the brown pockets. Maybe it’ll be more of the same in 2025 and that isn’t the worst thing ever – you can plan your weeks around it, while taking the chance on the road can still be fruitfull – it simply means Bryce isn’t an arm I need to chase given the large weight holding him back.

This isn’t to say that Bryce can’t improve and overcome his flaws. We saw moments last year where the splitter was what we wanted it to be against LHB (though inconsistent across the year and it’s hard to see him finding elite feel as a non-elite command arm), and the curveball had promise until its rhythm was gone by the next outing. Nick, this awfully negative for a young pitcher who just went 2.94 ERA and 0.98 WHIP across 180.1 IP. Right? And yet, we’ve seen young arms have a stupid good season and overlook signs that they could easily regress in the coming years. Alek Manoah, Triston McKenzie, Bobby Miller, come to mind (though injuries can be blamed a bit here), and the questions linger about Bryce. Treat him like a Cherry Bomb who you’re not dropping and you’ll be fine. Don’t get overhyped unless we see something truly change in his arsenal.

Quick take: Bryce’s absurd 2024 season is a clear peak that is sure to regress in 2025, but how much? His four-seamer needs more help and he’s still searching for the right complement inside his arsenal, while the overall command isn’t as stellar as 2024’s sub 1.00 WHIP would suggest. There’s potential if he doesn’t have to rely so heavily on the four-seamer, but this isn’t as secure as many others at the same pick, nor does he have as believable of a path toward elite ceiling.

26. Framber Valdez (HOU, LHP)

Valdez had a 3.84 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with a 19% strikeout rate through his first fifteen starts of the season. After that July 4th start, 1.91 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, with a 30% strikeout rate in thirteen starts. Uhhhhhhh. He saved your season and the nation’s fireworks woke him up. He saw the lights. It’s pretty clear what changed as it rode toward him in shining armor.

The curveball. That gorgeous curveball with an eye slit I still can’t believe knight’s could actually see through. Valdez found the pitch that eluded him year, ramping up its usage almost ten points to 36% of the time and the results followed. It went from a 28% CSW at four whiffs per start to a 33% CSW and seven whiffs per start. That’s a lot of whiffs! Sure was. And I have no idea what to expect this season.

You’ll hear some people hand wave to dual nature of this season from Valdez (just draft him and slot him in there, he’ll be fine) and I just can’t do that. His second half was extreme and unreliable as a sample to predict the year ahead, while the first three months were more familiar to the tone we’ve seen in the past – the sinker allows hits that drives up the WHIP and the secondaries come and go.

This isn’t completely fair, though. Valdez did pull back on the cutter/slider (it’s the same pitch) to favor the curve more against LHB, which worked in his favor, even if the two pitches had a ten point difference in strike rate (67% slider vs 57% curve). I wonder what approach we see from Valdez here next season.

I could go on for a while. The sinker lost a ton of drop in 2023 and regained in all in 2024, which outlines the return of grounders and improved contact on the sinker, the changeup can be very effective when working and helps his sinker against RHB, but maybe I’m overlooking the biggest change: Alex Bregman to the Red Sox. Isaac Paredes will be taking over at third and if he was there all of last season, the Astros would have ranked 27th in infield defense by OAA. Bregman was the sole positive defender with a +6, with Paredes sitting around average.

I threw up my hands and slotted Valdez outside the Top 30. I imagine many of y’all want him higher (especially in deeper leagues) and I see more of the first half version coming again – a pitch who will hurt your WHIP without a ton of strikeouts and is very replaceable on the waiver wire. If I truly believed that, I wouldn’t have him here, which bakes in the possibility he figured out his curve and will have it for the full season ahead. That would be absolutely lovely.

Quick Take: The loss of Bregman at third and the tale of two halves from Valdez has me turning away from him in drafts. Expect a regression in hits and strikeouts without the savior curveball returning in all likelihood, though there is a chance he can provide good enough ratios across a full season with double-digit wins. There are many other options I prefer.

27. Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)

Despite being as labeled “safe” and the guy who “we know who he is”, Webb wasn’t who he was. We saw Webb toss over 50 changeups in starts in 2023 only for him to pull back with the pitch last season, leaning into more sinkers against both LHB and RHB. It makes sense – Webb’s slowball saw its ICR balloon from a 31% clip to 46%, while the sinker continued to be a productive called strike offering and find outs on its own.

The sweeper took over for his slider, though I should note the difference in horizontal break between the two is far smaller than you typically see – just three extra inches of break on the sweeper with similar drop and slightly harder velocity on the slider. In addition, the sweeper mimicked the slider’s performance to steal called strikes against LHB while failed to turn into a devastating putaway offering to RHB.

And that’s the real question. Can Webb create a devastating offering outside of his changeup? Batters had a better gameplan against Webb in 2024, ready to attack a changeup earlier in counts and benefited constantly, forcing Webb to pull back on the signature offering in favor of good-not-elite tools instead. We even saw a cutter against LHB thrown 31% of the time in his final start to great effect – 7/20 foul balls showcases how surprised batters were to see it – and you can expect Webb to tinker again in 2025 as he finds a groove.

The sinker will still be productive in a good park and solid defense behind him, enabling the workhorse you’re accustomed to from Webb. It’s relatively safe to assume the changeup will perform better in some fashion as well, and it’s possible the addition of the cutter can improve the arsenal as a whole – no more hunting changeups y’all. I’m optimistic that a draft pick for Webb in 12-teamers returns a WHIP that helps unlike the 1.23 that hurt last year, while his value in deeper formats will continue to be amplified as a reliable arm week in and week out.

Quick Take: Webb will get volume once again and I’m inclined to believe it will come with a better WHIP as his changeup’s results normalize. The new cutter can add a pleasant wrinkle to his mix as well, while we should expect further experimentation with his sweeper/slider to squeeze another SP2/3 floor season from Webb.

Tier 5 – Cherry Bombs I Can’t Resist

They have much higher bust potential, but hot dang, I can see how all of them act like a Top 5 Starting Pitcher during the year.

29. Shane McClanahan (TBR, LHP)

Injuries are the worst, aren’t they? The announced plan for McShane is for the ’22 stud to toss roughly 140-150 IP in his first year back from TJS, suggesting he starts slow in April and ramps up in full by May. The biggest issue in that expected volume is his lack of time spent on the IL – his reduction of IP would come from skipped or diminished starts, preventing managers from capitalizing on an open roster spot to cover roughly a month of missing production.

I’ve heard concern of McClanahan’s ability once returning from a second TJS and I’m not as phased as others. The data points on “second TJS” are a bit noisy and with more procedures done in recent years, McShane is becoming one of the few young stud arms to endure the procedure twice. As long as the procedure is done correctly (a relatively safe assumption), it should be like any other return from TJS and McClanahan should be back to normal.

We shouldn’t call what McShane does as normal, though. His 97 mph heater paired with elite extension and solid vert sets the tone against RHB, while the changeup demolishes RHB. The slider continues to haunt LHB as well and the package is clear as day. The drop in strikeouts in 2023 can be blamed on his slide piece’s inability to put batters away on both sides of the plate (10 point drops in putaway rate to pedestrian marks!), while the four-seamer fell to a ghastly 12% putaway rate against LHB. It happens and likely won’t be replicated.

The rise in hits and walks can be partially blamed by those at-bats getting extended, though his struggles to earn curveball strikes to LHB had its influence, too. These are all minor issues in the grand scheme and generally normalize over time, but there is one major factor this year we can’t ignore: moving to George Steinbrenner field (a hitter paradise) from Tropicana field (a pitcher paradise). Expect more HRs from LHB as long as McClanahan’s four-seamer continues to lose command against lefties. I’ll still hold out a touch of hope for a sinker to appear, but that’s a pipe dream. Maybe one day.

Despite these concerns and the limited frames, I love the fact that Shane is a pitcher I trust to produce at a high quality per inning when on the bump. There is absurd Top 5 SP upside here, of course, though that will likely be reserved for 2026.

Quick Take: He’s returning from his 2nd TJS and should be expected for 140+ IP of quality fantasy production with an elite heater, changeup, and pair of breakers. However, the new home park + stretched out volume equates to a lower seasonal impact than other health risks who can be moved to the IL.

30. Roki Sasaki (LAD, RHP)

Sasaki’s ranking is likely shifting once we get more information during spring training and it doesn’t feel right placing him in early February BUT HERE WE ARE. I’m still hazey on the quality of innings Sasaki brings to the table + the plan for the season ahead. The Dodgers’ goal is to ensure he’s healthy for the postseason, which would suggest they would want to keep him around 140 innings or so, but how would they do that? Eric Samulski made a great point – he has minor league options. We could see Sasaki start the season in the minors as an “extended spring training”, forcing those who drafted Sasaki to waste a roster spot for the entirety of April. Or the Dodgers could feel that their six-man rotation is enough rest to allow him throw for the full year.

Those worried about the story of Sasaki getting recommended for TJS in previous years and electing not to get it, I would put those fears aside. If Sasaki needed it, he would have gotten it, waited two years, and signed with the Dodgers post-surgery for a whole lot more money. We should assume he’s healthy and feeling great.

The skill set is electric. I wonder if the recent reports of his extension increasing to seven feet are correct, which would nullify most of the effects of the lower velocity, and I can’t wait to see if he’s the 30% strikeout arm he’s been made out to be. My current expectation is for Sasaki to be somewhat limited early in the year and carry an explosive strikeout rate with common signs of a young Japanese starter getting acclimated to the new home.

I’ve slotted Sasaki next to Bryan Woo for this reason – I’d love both if I believed they would toss over 170 innings this season. Woo’s innings are clearer and will come with an IL stint if he’s injured, but Sasaki’s performance ceiling is higher, giving him the slight nod in these early ranks. I can’t wait until he performs in the spring.

Quick Take: We’re still in the dark about the Dodgers’ plan with Sasaki for the year, making me hestitant to chase him in drafts until knowing more. We should expect elite strikeout ability, but I’m favoring the known over the shiny new toy until we get an eye on him in the spring with some proper data.

31. Bryan Woo (SEA, RHP)

Will the man be healthy? I hate talking about health in my rankings – say it with me: “Injury and volume are the hardest to project.” – but we can’t ignore the emotional duress Woo caused managers in 2024 after his injury status shifted like an angry Redditor with a broken CAPS LOCK. I have to ding him a bit for the array of problems that limited his innings heavily until he was finally allowed to toss 90 pitches on August 2nd, and he cruised after that, save for a 7 ER game against the Yankees (with 20 whiffs, FWIW). However, if Woo is free to toss 90 pitches across 25-30 starts this year, I think he has Top 10 SP potential. Seriously.

His four-seamer and sinker combo reminds me plenty of Zack Wheeler. While Woo doesn’t have quite the same extension, the heaters both come in super flat (99th percentile HAVAA!) along with precision on both offerings, akin to Wheeler. The sinker’s absurd 19% ICR to RHB last year was a product of the massive movement shift between the two pitches, along with his ability to tunnel the two effectively: Four-seamer sits upstairs, while the sinker starts high and lands down-and-in. It’s the foundation many pitchers dream of.

The secondaries are…tough. Wheeler had the same issue, but found enough in his breakers to excel in tandem with his fastballs. Woo is still searching for a dependable secondary, though I have more faith in him than his peers in Seattle. I saw an improvement in his slider later in the season, and hopefully it can become a leader for Woo to both sides of the plate. The sweeper hasn’t had the success you’d expect against RHB, while the changeup does little and the 2023 cutter is nowhere to be seen.

It makes it tough to deal with LHB. The sinker survived and had the best PLV of any offering from Woo against LHB last year, but I’m not holding my breath for its 4.8% Mistake rate to be replicated. The slider’s jump to 20% usage against LHB came with success down the stretch and it seems like the ticket for Woo to become a true darling in the Seattle rotation. Just stay on the dang field, please.

Quick Take: Woo’s command is arguably the best of any Seattle starter (yes, including Kirby) and there’s sense he simply needs more time on the bump to develop the full arsenal to be a true fantasy stud. However, we can’t ignore his inability to stay on the field, making Woo a pitcher to chase when you can complement him with reliable volume. At least you can be confident in the quality of inning when we see them.

32. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL, RHP)

This year should be the Year of the Cutter. The bridge pitch is so dang good for extension-focused pitchers with high velocity, creating a difficult time for batters to discern if the pitch will be a straight four-seamer or veer off as a cutter. I think Grayson can be a Top 5 starter if he finds a cutter this year and it’s as simple as that.

His four-seamer has what you want, yet batters have hit it constantly. Its 96/97 mph velocity with 7.2 extension (!) is fantastic, and even comes with a relatively flat attack angle that should help it get whiffs upstairs, and despite its lack of vert, Grayson’s heater gets more horizontal break than expected, which, at the very least, should limit hard contact.

And it does. And doesn’t. To both. What. Well, against LHB, the four-seamer was fantastic with a 17% SwStr rate, while RHB saw a sub 40% ICR. However, he doesn’t lean into the horizontal movement and stays away to RHB inside of jamming them inside. Meanwhile, the four-seamer does stay away to LHB, which aids in its whiffs…but we need the secondaries to get involved.

Grayson’s changeup is the most aggressive of the lot, but he doesn’t command it well. Far too many float into the middle of the zone and even with the high swinging strike rates and 32% ICR vs. LHB, he allowed 4 HR off the pitch and more damage than it should. The curveball gets called strikes to LHB, though it also gets left over the plate, and I think you get why Grayson needs a cutter. He should be leaning into the extension ala Wheeler and Grayson, using fastballs with varying movement as the core of his approach, not reliant on secondaries.

There is a slider in the mix as well, which gets RHB out of their shoes with a 21% SwStr rate last year…and 43% ICR. Once again, Rodriguez nails it or gives batters and opportunity to punish.

We’re entering Grayson’s third year in the majors. His sophomore season was a clear step forward, but I wonder if there is another leap to take without a shift in approach or addition of a cutter. H*ck, even a sinker to RHB like Wheeler would do wonders. Ranking arms like Grayson is awfully difficult as I’m wishcasting improvement without evidence it will come to fruition. He is just 25-years-old and we’ve seen many pitchers take the leap at his age. Is this the one? Or we will have to endure another Cherry Bomb season?

Quick Take: The ceiling is high for Grayson if he can improve his fastball approach, nail down the command of his secondaries, or add a sinker/cutter to embrace his extension. However, there’s no indication any of this will happen, making for a Cherry Bomb season as the floor – a beneficial one, but not warranting of your SP #2 pick.

33. Freddy Peralta (MIL, RHP)

Things are strange with Peralta. I’ll never quite understand why he is a stud upstairs against LHB at a 60%+ hiLoc (14-15% SwStr rates) but elects to go sub 50% hiLoc against RHB, which returning a 10% SwStr last year. I wonder what the problem is. Well, that’s just one part of it. Peralta has been a poster child for the importance of extension since he showed up and what was a 7+ feet clip suddenly dropped to 6.7/6.8 feet last year. That may not seem like much, but it also meant he released from a taller height, worsening his HAVAA as well, and it may be all due to a larger emphasis on iVB, which jumped an inch last year to 16″, but he was displaying absurd 18+ marks in April that quickly disappated. That was a fun time. It was, but it seems like Peralta was chasing vert and raising his arm angle to do so and it cost him.

There’s also the walk problem that was mostly a product of his slider failing to return strikes at a 55% rate against RHB. Yes, 54.8% strikes at 31% usage. That can’t happen and while I want to tell you it’ll get corrected, this is Professor Chaos we’re talking about. His cross-body mechanics open the door for volatility and I for one don’t want to deal with it.

Maybe I should. I often refer to guys like Snell, Cease, Framber, and Peralta as headaches, but you won’t drop them and they generally always normalize across a season to be the expected value. For those in 15-teamer roto leagues, what’s the difference? But for me, a manager who checks daily and wants to have an understanding of where my SP are moving forward after each start, it’s maddening. What if they don’t correct it like Cease’s 2023 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.42 WHIP? Peralta gives me these vibes massively and I’d rather just…not. That’s me, of course. Peralta could maintain the 27% strikeout rate throughout the year, correct the slider’s strike rate, and possibly shift his arm angle back and find the extension again, turning him into a stud for six months. I’m open to it, just not as much as many others.

Quick Take: Peralta has clear elements to fix to correct his 1.21 WHIP and decent-not-great ERA of 2024 -revert his arm angle and extension to 2023 marks while focusing on getting his slider over the plate to RHB – but the ever present Professor Chaos created by his cross-body mechanics has me a hesitant to reach far in drafts.

Tier 6 – Holly But I’m Scared

You’re going to be drafted with an expectation for quality, but can you repeat what you’ve done in the past? Yes…right?

34. Sandy Alcantara (MIA, RHP)

Yes, I still have a Sandy Crush and so should you. I gave my shirt to my partner. Smart. That blue will look great on them. The drop in quality from 2022 to 2023 merged with the unknown post-TJS has many hesitant to draft Sandy, and it makes sense. A fall to a 20% strikeout rate across 185 IP in 2023 (not even a full season, if you can believe it) doesn’t scream AGA material, while we can’t expect Sandy to express his signature elite volume in 2025 given his time away from the game at age 29 (Typically we consider 150 IP the cap post-TJS, save for Justin Verlander, but that was an exceptional case of a veteran arm having nothing to lose.).

I didn’t scrutinize Alcantara’s regression heavily this time last year given the heavy likelihood of missing the full season and it’s time we gave it an honest look. The quick answer is simple: His sinker jumped in ICR to RHB, his changeup was more hittable to LHB, and both the slowball and slider were terrible in two-strike counts, dropping to paltry 16% putaway rates against LHB and RHB.

I can’t continue without mention the Marlins infield defense. The dirt was filled with fantastic defenders in 2022, returning the second best OAA at +18 as a team, allowing Alcantara’s 55% groundball rate to convert into easy tosses to first constantly. However, 2023 came with a -24 OAA (27th in MLB), which can explain some of the +2 hits allowed per nine innings from 2022 to 2023 (6.8 to 8.6. Yikes.). What about last year? Did it get better? Uhhh, nah. -28 OAA in 2024 (28th in MLB) and it may be more of the same in 2025.

With that in mind, Alcantara did regress in some areas, too. His sinker didn’t jam RHB as often, allowing for its massive 20% –> 35% ICR jump, though a 20% clip is generally unheard of and never holds for a second season. Failure with his changeup and slider in two-strike counts also led to more hits. After all, instead of strikeouts, at-bats extended and led to more balls in play.

The good news? Sandy’s stuff was the same. Still high velocity with the same pitch shapes across the board and the report in September was he had already hit 99 mph in a bullpen session. It grants the possibility of recovery via converting his two-strike pitches and improving sinker locations, though the lack of expected volume merged with a questionable Marlins defense (Otto Lopez is elite, but Connor Norby and Xavier Edwards are not good defenders) makes me question chasing Sandy at a high price. What may happen is a heavy limitation in April before either getting dealt or getting the green light by May, but at the very least, I highly doubt you’ll get poor production from Alcantara when he does get the pearl.

Quick Take: The Marlins defense and lack of regular volume due to TJS recovery removes Alcantara from his 2022 ceiling. However, changes to his sinker location merged with potential improvements in changeup & slider efficiency in two-strike counts could make for SP #2 production when starting regularly.

35. Luis Castillo (SEA, RHP)

I’ll always have a soft spot for Castillo, the man who brought Paul Sporer and I together to create the Fireside Chat podcast back in 2018 (that first half was rough), and I wish the tea leaves were arranged differently at the bottom of my mug. Wait, I thought you believed tea was worse water. SURE IS, this is just for prophetic purposes – the only true reason for tea. WHAT. Ahem, Castillo will be entering his ninth season in the bigs and is having some…issues.

The transition from sinker to four-seamer was bliss in 2023, though the pitch took a step back in 2024 and I’m not confident at 32-years-old that Castillo will reclaim its luster. The heater sat 95/96 mph instead of its classic 97 mph blaze, while his already league-worst extension fell more to 5.4 (two feet less than Gilbert’s), which has taken Castillo’s elite 1.6 HAVAA four-seamer to a 1.3 clip. All elements – lower extension, steeper, and worse velocity – allowed batters to connect more often and bring its SwStr down from 18%+ heights to a mortal 14% clip (and just 10/11% against LHB!).

And it’s not just the four-seamer that is lagging behind. The changeup has been the signature offering for Castillo across his tenure, though it failed to instill fear to LHB despite its consistent 25% usage. A low 60% strike rate merged with a poor 13% SwStr is appalling for such a well-vaunted offering, and it often left Castillo wounded against LHB. Fastballs and sliders had to do more over the plate to compensate, with both getting crushed at a 42%+ ICR with 50% zone rates. It’s a problem.

I do think there’s more to squeeze out of the slider, though. The pitch was beautifully located down against LHB, but failed constantly to put batters away, with a near 10 point drop in Putaway Rate comapred to 2023. We also saw just a 17% Putaway Rate against RHB, which is shocking for a 19% SwStr rate breaker. That could spell more strikeouts from Castillo in 2025 and a potential return to a 25%+ strikeout if everything else were to stand pat.

He’s still one of the rare workhorses in the bigs across a sizeable track record returning 30+ starts in all but one season (max in 2020, 25 in 2022), and assuming Seattle keeps its stadium untouched, he’ll benefit from the best park factor in the majors. There’s always value in an arm who you won’t consider dropping across the season, even if it’s not the darling of old.

Quick take: Castillo will have his moments of frustration and the four-seamer may continue to regress, but he’s a volume arm with promise in his slider, while said heater still dominates RHB. Castillo’s strikeouts could return with slider polish in two-strike counts or a redemption arc for his signature changeup. He’s a safe play for the full year without the tantalizing ceiling of younger flamethrowers.

36. Aaron Nola (PHI, RHP)

Despite Nola doing some fun things last year – four-seamers sitting upstairs and preventing a ton of hard contact against RHB! Cutters landing just out of the zone! – the main difference I see from 2023 is his LOB rate going from 66% to 79%. Seriously, that’s the difference and I hate that.

Nola’s curveball isn’t the pitch it used to be when he was a near 30% strikeout arm. Its success in two-strike counts has fallen dramatically and given Nola’s changeup decline, the hook has been sat on more frequently by LHB to Nola’s chagrin. There isn’t a great solution outside of that changeup doing better than a 47% strike rate (seriously Nola?!) and while I’d normally say the pitch would jump back up to more respectable levels this season, the pitch has been in decline for years. I’m not encouraged.

The heater approach is interesting, too. Nola’s 92/93 mph sinker command is stellar as he nails called strikes away to RHB and mixes the pitch inside in an effort to jam, but he doesn’t quite get the pitch inside enough and batters collect hits frequently. Against LHB, the sinkers that leak back over the plate trying to surprise at the front hip are also demolished, even if Nola rarely misses down-middle or middle-away. There’s a small margin of error when you’re not throwing 95+.

I don’t see Nola as an Ace. I wish I did, but without a changeup that works and a larger reliance on sinkers that still get hit hard (10 point drop in strike rate on four-seamers due to saving them late), I see Nola as a productive volume arm without the ceiling of a sub 1.10 WHIP and an ERA that will be closer to 4.00 than 3.00. Wins will be there, though, and you’ll be hard-pressed to find another starter with his health track record. There’s more value in deep leagues than shallow and I’m looking for a larger impact play per start for my SP #2.

Quick Take: Nola’s curve and fastball command will keep him valuable for your teams across the year, but the days as a Top 10 SP are likely behind him. He’s a Holly along with many others flirting with a 1.15 WHIP and a strikeout per inning.

37. Robbie Ray (SFG, LHP)

I’m a bit shocked to say it, but I really like the bed and breakfast for next year. Give me all of that R&R! I was initially hesitant for obvious reasons – his volatility rooted in questionable control of his breakers that lead to his high iVB, but poor HAVAA and extension, heater to get tagged more often than we’d like. However, the slider has routinely been a 20% SwStr pitch against both RHB and LHB and his small sample last year suggests more of the same in the year ahead. His situation in San Francisco is great – a good park to pitch in with an above-average defense and a long leash to push 100 pitches each outing – and another 30% strikeout rate season with volume tells me 200 strikeouts are ahead now that he’s in his TJS honeymoon period (just don’t strain your hammy again, alright?).

I’m also encouraged that his fastball sat 94+ mph consistently in all seven starts last year and was spotted well. When we’ve seen high walk rates from Ray in the past, it often came with a scatterplot of heaters, but this small sample saw great fastball locations and a few blips of slider or curveball command. We didn’t even get the sinker returning from his days with the Mariners and you should bet the pitch returns if he needs to make an adjustment during the season.

I wrestled with where to place Ray on the ranks – is he a Cherry Bomb or a Holly? – and I’ve settled that 1) You are not going to drop Ray 2) He will be a strikeout machine 3) He has a longer leash than the younger Cherry Bomb types. That puts him inside the top Cherry Bomb category as I don’t truly believe he’ll eradicate the ER blowups for the full year. And that’s fine, we all could use another Joe Ryan on our squads.

Quick Take: He’ll be going every five days with a long leash for the Giants and is one of the few arms poised for a 200+ strikeout season. His heater command at 94+ mph is a good sign for better consistency in 2025 in a solid team environment, though there will surely be a sprinkle of difficult stretches along the way.

38. Sonny Gray (STL, RHP)

As always, Sonny does his own thing each year. He’s a unique pitcher with a variety of weapons, rooted in a four-seamer that acts like a 92 mph cutter and sits away from RHB nearly 70% of the time, setting up backdoor sinkers for called strikeouts far more than you’d ever expect. 40% putaway rate, y’all. FORTY PERCENT. Pretty bonkers. Will that ability, can you please jam the sinker a little further inside earlier in the count? K thx.

I wish Sonny was able to keep that cut-fastball inside against LHB, but alas, his gloveside location drops to sub 50% levels, likely in fear of hitting batters. It makes the four-seamer less effective than it could be, though he has plenty of help to get them out. His sweeper is oddly the best putaway pitch of the lot, featuring fantastic command under the nitro zone of LHB for a backfoot breaker that collected a ton of punchouts this year. Merged with the backdoor sinker, we can explain Sonny’s shocking strikeout jump to a 30% clip.

I fail to get the sense that anyone believes that strikeout rate to stick and I think I’m in agreement. RHB will be prepped for the backdoor sinker, while the sweeper feel is likely regressing a bit as well. We also just saw the most IP in one year from Sonny since 2019 at 166.1 and it’s not a challenge to imagine him failing to hit 150 IP this year.

There will always be some ebbs and flows with Sonny based on his feel for breakers (it’s not an overwhelming set of fastballs, after all) but it’s a good situation in St. Louis, especially with Arenado expected to stick around at the hot corner. I’m in favor of drafting Sonny as your SP #3/#4 as someone you won’t drop all year, helping your teams when he’s on the mound. Works for me.

Quick Take: Sonny is unlikely to replicate the same 30% strikeout rate but he’s been a consistent ratio arm with the leash for six frames at a strikeout per inning. As long as he’s on the field consistently, he’ll find a rhythm and help your squads, but he’s unlikely to have the same impact as other pitchers we expect to miss time this year.

Tier 7 – Cherry Bombs (But It’s Worse)

39. Jared Jones (PIT, RHP)

Who has an ox-eye daisy near them? I love Jones. I love him not. I love Jones. I love him not. The four-seamer and slider combo should be amazing. It’s 97+ mph heaters with absurd HAVAA, above-average iVB and just under seven feet of extension. He throws them for strikes. He throws them upstairs half of the time. He throws them for dinner time. The slider returns 20%+ SwStr rate (with room to grow against RHB!) and is beautifully spotted back-foot to LHB. It’s the making of an absolute stud.

And yet, the warning signs are yelling at me, mouthless and all. Things were rough in the second half. Jones endured a lat injury and came back without the same demolition with heaters, while his overall command took a step back. It was rough watching him in September as you can feel his confidence dwindling. I can’t shake the idea that Jones doesn’t have pristine command and his heater’s 16+ iVB is here to stay, making it closer to dead-zone than we’d like. I need that 17″+ again, PLEASE.

“Second-half” can also be described for his starts themselves. Jones would often come out like a rocket, blasting 99 mph and 100 mph heaters past batters with a 90 mph slider and leave them shaking their heads. By even the third inning, we’d start to see more 97/98 mph and falling to 95/96 mph by the sixth. That exhaustion carried over to the slider as well, but moreso to his command. Waste pitches would appear, batters would be rewarded for their patience, and all of it was amplified by Jones’ lack of variety. There wasn’t a new sinker or dramatic changeup added the second or third time through the lineup. Batters now saw the same fastball/slider combo and it was easier to hit.

There are some promising elements, though. Fatigue is generally improved in the follow-up season and I wonder if Jones will work on sitting 97 mph for a whole start, saving his 99+ for later in the game when he needs it. Hopefully the adjustment keeps his command in check when he faces batters past the fourth inning.

Don’t overlook a possible arsenal shift as well. His changeup also showed promise as another putaway pitch to LHB (he actually needs helps against RHB, oddly enough), and if he can reduce the mistake sliders to RHB (near 10% mistake rate?!), then I trust the season ahead. Maybe even a sinker to keep a few more guys off the four-seamer? Or a bridge cutter to pair with the slider? (Cutter isn’t as important for Jones, FWIW.)

I’m going to bank on improvement from a stupid good first half, even if I wish I saw Jones get through the adversity in the second half – when rookie pitchers succeed and fail, I generally love them after they’ve rebounded. Mentally overcoming a blow and sticking in the majors keeps them from large stretches of turmoil in the future.

The one stat I keep coming back to? His four-seamer and slider strike rates. With both over 65% to both LHB and RHB, I have faith we won’t see a monstrous walk rate (WHIP shouldn’t be over 1.20!) while the whiffability is still very much present. It’s a foundation many starters dream of and we’ve already seen growth in a curve and change that suggests he can be more than a two-pitch arm in the future. It also means the efficiency we saw at the start (7 of 10 games with 6+ IP!) is not a fluke. I’m a believer.

Quick Take: Jones gave us an explosion of excitement early and fizzled out both during starts and in the second half as he was unable to maintain the same peak for long. The peak is so good that I’m a believer in Jones making the tweaks and changes to extend the peak longer inside games and for deeper into the season in 2025. That fastball and slider are just too good.

40. Jack Flaherty (DET, RHP)