Whether it’s early in the season, the middle of July, or late in the year, it’s always good to know where you stand in your Roto league.
Of course, perusing your league’s standings accomplishes that fairly quickly. However, numbers can often be misleading. Is your team producing at the level it should be as a league leader compared to the vast majority of other Roto leagues?
Are there underperforming players on your team, or available via waivers each week that could help you significantly in specific, or multiple, categories moving forward? This column aims to, and will, answer all those questions on a weekly basis, regardless of league size.
Essentially, it’s an almanac for Roto leagues and NFBC or TGFBI leagues, showing you not only the watermarks your team should be hitting category-wise to be truly elite but also the specific players that will help you get there. What’s more, it’ll also cover the top performers in each category, as well as some under-the-radar options for each metric as well.
Notes
A couple of quick notes before we begin. For metrics like ERA, WHIP, batting average, and on-base percentage, only qualified or close to qualified pitchers and hitters (respectively) were considered, especially at this time of year with smaller sample sizes running rampant.
Additionally, all rostered rate numbers are via FantasyPros as of Monday. Furthermore, in part due to NFBC leagues, all stats (as well as the rostered data) are via the previous week’s Sunday.
All the data in terms of Roto league production is from last year’s numbers.
Where You Should Be Producing In Each Category
Below is data for both 15-team and 12-team Roto leagues from last season and the average statistical totals that each placed team finished with. This is for the entirety of a season. Basically, if you want to do well in these two formats, these are the season-long watermarks to shoot for.
There’s also SGP data for both 15-team and 12-team formats.
Before we get any further, a massive thank you to Pitcher List Director of Data Analytics and Research Kyle Bland for getting a hold of the data.
And now, without further ado, the 15-team data, which comes from 2023 TGFBI leagues:
15-Team Leagues
(Quick reminder, the far left-hand column is where the team finished in the standings.)
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And here’s the 15-team, SGP data:
12-Team Leagues
And now for the 12-team, SGP data:
Category Power Rankings
Batting Average (AVG)
Leaders
Of Note: Steven Kwan.
Kwan has enjoyed another strong season at the plate (he’s hitting .216 with a .374 on-base percentage, 13 home runs, and nine stolen bases in his first 430 plate appearances) and remains as entrenched as ever atop the Cleveland Guardians lineup. But it’s worth noting that he’s batting just .244 with a .299 on-base percentage and a 91 wRC+ since the start of July, logging six home runs and five stolen bases in 178 plate appearances during that span.
With a 9.6% strikeout rate and just a .241 BABIP, there’s probably some reasonably notable positive regression coming soon here, but it’s something to keep in mind for fantasy managers who both have Kwan on their roster and are reasonably deep at the outfield position.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Jake McCarthy.
Jake McCarthy spent much of last week hitting second for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Arizona Diamondbacks entered this week with the most runs scored in the league, 10 more than the next team.
You see where I’m going with this, right?
A batter routinely hitting in the top half of the best lineup in the league should be a must-add for fantasy managers. And that’s all without getting to the fact that McCarthy is batting .310 with a .382 on-base percentage, six home runs, 18 stolen bases, 48 runs scored, and 41 RBI in his first 344 plate appearances this season.
The phrase you’re looking for? That’d be “league winner.”
On-Base Percentage (OBP)
Leaders
Of Note: Jurickson Profar.
One of this year’s best breakout players, both in terms of real-life baseball and fantasy baseball, Profar simply continues to produce. He’s sporting a .402 on-base percentage, three home runs, a stolen base, 16 runs scored and 11 RBI in 92 plate appearances since July 26, all the while batting either first or second for the San Diego Padres.
Start him with confidence for the rest of the fantasy regular season and the fantasy playoffs.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: James Wood.
That James Wood is only on fantasy rosters in 49% of leagues is the definition of puzzling.
A player who could very well be among the first 40 or 50 players drafted next spring, Wood is enjoying a strong rookie season, hitting .284 with a .373 on-base percentage, five home runs, and six stolen bases in his first 177 plate appearances while also posting an 11.9% barrel rate and a 56.4% hard-hit rate.
He’s someone who should be in fantasy starting lineups, let alone fantasy rosters, in pretty much all fantasy leagues from here through the end of the fantasy playoffs.
Home Runs (HR)
Leaders
Of Note: Brent Rooker.
Has Rooker been the best hitter in the majors since the start of July? You could certainly make that argument.
The 29-year-old is batting a blistering .353 with a .425 on-base percentage, a 21.2% barrel rate, 14 home runs, and five stolen bases in 153 plate appearances from July through the start of the week.
His wRC+ is at 217 during that span and he’s struck out just 20.3% of the time. And oh yeah, his ISO is at .361.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Nolan Gorman.
Recently optioned to Triple-A, Gorman is certainly someone to consider dropping in deeper fantasy leagues at the moment if there’s an impact option available via waivers. However, for managers with a deep bench, it might be worth holding off on that transaction for a period to see if the infielder returns to St. Louis when rosters expand in September. The 24-year-old struck out 37.2% of the time in his 398 plate appearances for St. Louis this season, but he also slugged 19 home runs with a .199 ISO and a 16.7% barrel rate.
Runs Scored (R)
Leaders
Of Note: Juan Soto.
I mean we probably could’ve guessed this was going to happen, right? That Juan Soto would have a strong season at the plate in general? The slugger has been excellent in his first season with the Yankees and hitting in front of Aaron Judge on a regular basis has been excellent for his run-scoring production.
But Soto is having a strong season where home runs are concerned as well. Again, file that one under unsurprising, but per Statcast, during the last three years, Soto’s old home stadium (Petco Park) has the 12th-best park factor for home runs. His current home stadium (Yankee Stadium) trails only Great American Ballpark and Dodger Stadium where park factor for home runs is concerned.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Eugenio Suárez.
Switching back to the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup, Eugenio Suárez’s form at the plate has cooled off a bit lately, though only from a surface-level standpoint.
He’s hitting .214 with a .267 on-base percentage, one home run, and a 20.0% strikeout rate in his last 30 plate appearances, but is also sporting a 13.6% barrel rate and a 50.0% hard-hit rate during that span.
Don’t let the recent batting average have any sway here, though. The veteran makes for an ideal fantasy addition for teams in 12-team (or larger) leagues, particularly for fantasy managers looking for third-base reinforcements in the wake of Austin Riley’s injury.
RBI
Leaders
Of Note: Willy Adames.
In the midst of one of the best offensive seasons of his career, Willy Adames has been particularly excellent at the plate as of late, hitting .303 with a .359 on-base percentage, a 147 wRC+, nine home runs, three stolen bases, a 15.5% barrel rate, and a 44.3% hard-hit rate in 167 plate appearances since the start of July.
Looking ahead, the Brewers will, starting Friday, play 15 of their next 18 games against teams either with a pitching staff in the bottom third of the league in ERA (the Rockies, Cardinals, and Giants) or in an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark (in Cincinnati).
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Josh Bell.
Bell has a 122 wRC+ in his first 72 plate appearances with the Diamondbacks, providing quality power production with four home runs in 72 plate appearances. A .229 BABIP is probably impacting his .234 average and a .300 on-base percentage in a Diamondbacks uniform, but it’ll certainly be worth watching to see what his playing time looks like once Christian Walker returns from the injured list, particularly with Joc Pederson seeing significant time at designated hitter.
Stolen Bases (SB)
Leaders
Of Note: David Hamilton.
After struggling at the plate in the month of July, Hamilton has quietly turned in a strong August so far, hitting .333 with a .395 on-base percentage, two home runs, and five stolen bases in his first 43 plate appearances this month. If Hamilton can maintain a solid batting average and home run production the rest of the way he’ll be approaching league-winner status in fantasy leagues given his ability to steal bases.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Pete Crow-Armstrong.
The 22-year-old’s surface-level numbers should probably be a bit better than they actually are, what with a .254 BABIP and a strikeout rate (22.0%) that isn’t tremendously high.
Still, the outfielder hasn’t made all that much in the way of loud contact, with just a .262 wOBA in his first 264 plate appearances this year. Hitting .210 with a .255 on-base percentage, five home runs, and 23 stolen bases this season, Crow-Armstrong is probably a more impactful real-life player than a fantasy option for now given the value he brings from a fielding standpoint. Still, his ability to steal bases at a high rate could help fantasy managers in leagues with 14 or more teams (particularly those with five starting outfield slots) win fantasy playoff matchups this fall.
Pitchers
Strikeouts (K)
Leaders
Of Note: Garrett Crochet.
Crochet hasn’t thrown more than four innings in a start since June 30 against Colorado at home.
The results since haven’t been stellar, with a 6.17 ERA and a 4.92 FIP in 23.1 innings, 35 strikeouts, 10 walks, six home runs allowed and no pitcher wins. He’s not someone to drop from fantasy rosters at the moment, but it is getting to a point where deciding whether to start him or not matters more on the matchup and strikeout potential given that he isn’t going to log much, if any, pitcher wins.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Aaron Civale.
Civale has struggled at times early in his Milwaukee Brewers tenure, but he’s allowed just two earned runs combined in his last two starts, spanning 12.1 innings, starts that came against Cleveland and Cincinnati. The veteran has struck out nine batters to go with just nine hits, three walks, two earned runs, and a home run allowed.
Next up? A road matchup in Oakland on Friday against an A’s team with the league’s fourth-highest strikeout rate and the sixth-lowest collective on-base percentage in the majors.
ERA
Leaders
Of Note: Chris Sale.
Arguably fantasy’s best starter next to Tarik Skubal, Chris Sale has been as good as ever lately, logging a 2.35 ERA and a 1.40 FIP in his last 30.2 innings, striking out 47 batters (including at least 10 in each of his last three starts) compared to just eight walks and one home run allowed.
That’s good for a staggering 37.9% strikeout rate and just a 6.5% walk rate. Sale only has one pitcher win during that stretch, but as long as he’s pitching like this, recording pitcher wins shouldn’t be too much of an issue.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Injured list stash candidates.
This time of year (and a bit later in the year during the playoffs), having reinforcements in the form of players coming off the injured list can help push teams over the line in weekly matchups. This specific leaderboard features a number of them. Schmidt and Olson in particular stand out as quality rotation options, regardless of league size.
Wins (W)
Leaders
Of Note: Framber Valdez.
The only new member of the rankings, Valdez has been as consistent as ever this season continuing his run as arguably fantasy’s most consistently good starter.
The veteran has now topped the 1o-win mark for the fourth straight year while looking like a strong bet to once again finish with a FIP below the 3.60 mark for the third year running (it’s currently at 3.34).
He might not have the sky-high strikeout rate that someone like Sale has, but if you have Framber Valdez on your fantasy team, you’re probably in contention for a spot in your league’s fantasy playoffs.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Brayan Bello.
Bello has been much improved as of late, allowing just seven total earned runs in his last four starts, spanning 23 innings. If you’re doing the math at home, that checks out to a 2.74 ERA. Still, he’s also sporting a 4.47 FIP during that time frame, not to mention a .259 BABIP.
Assuming Boston’s rotation continues as is without any interruptions, Bello’s next three starts will come against the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays at home and then on the road against the Mets. Collectively, it’s not the most fantasy-friendly slate, especially with two games in Boston, so proceed with caution here when considering whether to start Bello in fantasy lineups.
Quality Starts (QS)
Leaders
Of Note: Cole Ragans.
One of the league’s best in terms of logging quality starts, Ragans has also been particularly impactful from a fantasy standpoint where strikeouts are concerned. He’s striking out 10.63 batters per nine innings, which is great. So too is his 28.9% strikeout rate.
But, perhaps unsurprisingly given the above-mentioned stats, the left-hander is also consistently logging high strikeout totals in each of his starts. He’s failed to register seven or more strikeouts in only eight of his 25 starts this year. That’s certainly very good production in leagues with head-to-head scoring, but in Roto leagues, the 26-year-old has an even higher fantasy ceiling.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Jameson Taillon.
Taillon has quietly logged a 3.62 ERA and a 3.99 FIP in his first 121.2 innings for the Cubs this year. And while his 19.1% strikeout rate limits his fantasy ceiling to a certain extent, his ability to keep walks off the board (in the form of a 4.8% walk rate) keeps Taillon firmly on the fantasy radar in deeper leagues.
Regardless of league size, however, Taillon should be a useful streaming option in the coming weeks. Assuming the Cubs’ rotation continues as is without any interruptions, Taillon’s next two starts will come on the road in Pittsburgh and Washington against the Pirates and Nationals respectively.
Saves (SV)
Leaders
Of Note: Josh Hader.
As the Astros have steadily climbed the standings after a slow start, Hader’s surface-level production has gradually improved as well.
Through the end of play on May 1, Houston was 10-20 and Hader was sporting a 6.39 ERA (and a 2.29 FIP, it should be noted) in his first 12.2 innings.
Since then, Houston has improved to 67-56 (as of the beginning of play this week). Meanwhile, Hader logged a 2.53 ERA and a 3.56 FIP in his last 42.2 innings, collecting 25 saves in the process. He looks once again like a top-4 or top-5 fantasy option at his position moving forward.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Michael Kopech.
Even if this ends up being a timeshare in the ninth inning with Michael Kopech, Daniel Hudson, and Evan Phillips sharing closing duties, Kopech is starting to look like the Dodgers reliever to roster in fantasy leagues. Or at least, one who has a significantly higher ceiling than Hudson or Phillips.
The former White Sox starter has yet to allow a run in his first 9.1 innings with the Dodgers, striking out 43.3% of the batters he’s faced while logging just a 3.3% walk rate, a 0.70 FIP, four holds and two saves.
In leagues where saves and holds are both part of the scoring, he looks like a potential league winner down the stretch. In more standard-scoring leagues, his fantasy ceiling could approach that if he ends up seeing the majority of save chances in Los Angeles.
WHIP
Leaders
Of Note: Bryce Miller.
Miller entered play this week having allowed five hits or fewer, one walk or fewer, and no earned runs allowed in four of his last six starts.
The positive momentum should only continue from here on out. Assuming Seattle’s rotation continues as is without any interruptions, Miller’s next two starts will come at home against the Rays on Monday and on the road against the Angels next Sunday.
Miller is probably a fixture in your fantasy lineup anyway, but it certainly doesn’t hurt when he has projected starts against two teams that have scored the third-lowest and fifth-lowest runs in the league this season.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Grant Holmes.
Holmes logged a 3.85 FIP and 10.80 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing just 2.08 walks and 1.66 home runs per nine frames as a starter this season. The 28-year-old logged 21.2 innings as a member of Atlanta’s rotation, but will now move back to the bullpen with the club’s rotation at full strength.
Holmes is a reliever to consider to help with weekly ERA and WHIP numbers while chipping in potential pitcher wins here and there. Plus, he could be a candidate to rejoin the rotation (speculatively speaking) if there’s an injury, which certainly doesn’t hurt his fantasy ceiling either. Given how well he pitched in the rotation, it’s potentially a worthy gamble to take in the right circumstances rather than rolling the dice on a streaming option without as high of a ceiling.