The List 7/31: Top 100 Starting Pitchers – Week 18 Fantasy Baseball 2023

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 2:00 pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback.tv 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
4. Updated 6/6 – I am now adding an “Honorable Mentions” at the end of The List to cover all the other SP who are off The List. It replaces the “Others I Considered” table.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!

One last point about that – oftentimes pitchers need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

I added something new to The List this season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.

They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers ASAP. Some guys aren’t here and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.

Colors: Green = Most excited about. Yellow = Solid but not as urgent. Orange = Will likely take some time.

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 45,000+ Top 300 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.

Let’s get to it.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
• These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.

 

• As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
• Highest Added: Hyun Jin Ryu (68)
• Highest Removed: Tyler Wells (42), Taj Bradley (56) Nathan Eovaldi (64)
• Net Change Inside Top 60:  (+2)
• Please understand how this affects movement across The List.

 

I’ve changed the notes this year to have a small blurb on everyone. Much easier to write and follow along in my view and it matches the formatting of the streamers. Please leave your feedback on this change – is it better or worse?

 

Tier 1 – The True Aces

 

1. Spencer Strider – Aces gonna ace. I still can’t believe he’s at 199 strikeouts already.

2. Gerrit Cole – Cole is the prototypical ace and finds a way to be a stud every season. It’s remarkable.

3. Shane McClanahan – The last few outings have been rough for McClanahan, even when the skills have been fantastic. Every pitch struggles at some point every season.

4. Luis Castillo – Aces gonna ace. It’s #HotCastilloSummer.

5. Kevin Gausman – Aces gonna ace. Fun fact: he’s second in the majors in strikeouts this year at 171. We focus so much on Strider that Gausman’s career year is getting lost in the shuffle.

 

Tier 2 – AGA We Hope Don’t Fall Off

 

6. Zac Gallen – Gallen has been awfully strange across the last month with his repertoire changing and looking a touch lost and yet, he’s mostly produced. I’m not worried he’s going to continue trending down.

7. Tyler Glasnow – That slider is just so dang good, featuring it more and pulling down the fastball usage while the curveball continues to be one of the hardest pitches to hit in baseball. Well, tossing the pitch rarely in the zone may help with that.

8. Joe Musgrove – Musgrove has been absolute money since I traded him away (you’re welcome y’all). Joking aside, the curve and slider are working far better than they did earlier in the season and there’s little reason to expect anything different.

9. Max Scherzer – I was a bit shocked to find Scherzer had an ERA above 4.00 given his relative consistency of producing at a high level. That said, it’s 12 stud starts, 7 clunkers across his 19 games this year and I’m not worried about the shift to Texas in the slightest – it may even help given the higher Win potential (sorry Mets fans).

10. Blake Snell – The walks are obviously worrisome, but Snell actually pitched much better in his latest four walk game than the final line would suggest. Keep on keepin’ on.

11. Shohei Ohtani – Ohtani’s four-seamer has been plenty better this season and seeing the sweeper come back as well has made him hold onto the AGA label.

 

Tier 3 – Potential AGA

 

12. Corbin Burnes – He’s close to graduation to AGA, but I need to see the cutter dominating a little more than it has.

13. Zack Wheeler – Wheeler has been just like Cole across his last month and change as the defense behind him has supported him far better than they did across the first three months.

14. Jesús Luzardo – He was so close to the AGA tag, but he just put up a clunker against the Tigers (of all teams) as the breaker was too heavily featured inside the zone and the fastball wasn’t spotted with precision. He’ll get there.

15. Pablo López – Did you know Pablo has four pitches with an 80th percentile or better PLV? His fifth is a sinker that is well above 90th percentile in O-Swing at 40%+ and HOW CAN YOU NOT LOVE THAT.

16. James Paxton – I wanted to give him the AGA tag as well, but a 2.00 WHIP effort isn’t enough. We need DOMINANCE. He has been so dang good, though.

17. Framber Valdez – I had to strip Valdez of his AGA after failing to produce in four of his last five. He had an easy excuse with ankle and calf injuries in earlier outings, but seeing a lack of confidence in his cutter and generally being bad in the last two has given us no choice. It’s a brief lapse, not a permanent stay down here.

 

Tier 4 – They Feel Like Aces But Aren’t

 

18. Joe Ryan – Without his secondaries developing, Ryan is susceptible to the days where his four-seamer isn’t the dopest of dope. I have faith in him for 2024 and beyond, but he may not be the man we want him to be in the final two months of the season.

19. Logan Webb – He’s tallied more strikeouts than expected while producing across 6-7 innings constantly. If only the slider was the one from 2021…

20. George Kirby – I’m still waiting to see if Kirby can fully develop a whiff pitch (is it the splitter?) and he’ll remain in Tier 4 until something arises that we can trust.

21. Aaron Nola – He’s not locked in. Simple as that. And yet, we know he will help us more than hurt the rest of the way with arguably the best curveball in the game and a strong four-seamer.

22. Yu Darvish – We saw two games of a legit approach, one game of chaos, and another of…good chaos. I want to lean into success 3-out-of-4 starts more than this, but it’s not as convincing I’d like it to be.

23. Sandy Alcantara – He’s looking far better as of late and we could be in for a fantastic final stretch of the season.

24. Justin Verlander – Verlander has looked more like an ace after I stated “he’s not a potential ace” what, a week ago? I wonder if he actually gets dealt and if so, it likely doesn’t change his fantasy value much, if at all.

25. Freddy Peralta – There have been ups and downs with Peralta all year, but the fact of the matter is that he’s chucking heaters two ticks harder and getting more whiffs while the curve and slider each have returned a 60% strike rate along the way. His latest 13-strikeout explosion isn’t an anomaly – we all know he’s capable of them.

 

Tier 5 – Legit Potential With A Good Floor

 

26. Julio Urías – This isn’t a proclamation that Urías is cooked. Absolutely not. We can also recognize that the changeup has been worse and Urías isn’t as overwhelming as those in Tier 4. I hope he returns there shortly.

27. Zach Eflin – His last start was interrupted by a barking knee and he’s cleared to go this week. That’s good enough for me.

28. Justin Steele – The command was all kinds of wonky last time out and I don’t believe that to be his destiny.

29. Andrew Abbott – Abbott’s new sweeper + solid fastball command has me hooked more than ever. Now it’s on him to do it against solid opponents.

30. Carlos Rodón – I’ve seen a variety of takes about Rodón and it may seem weird that I’m lowering him after he had easily his best start of the year, with exceptional PLV marks on both his slider and four-seamer. At the end of the day, I believe what we’ve seen from Rodón thus far is not the arm we’ll see throughout August and September, though I have to put a little more weight on the fact that he hasn’t averaged 96+ mph on his four-seamer in any of his four starts.

31. Lucas Giolito – Giolito is solid. I don’t think the Angels are going to “fix” him or anything of the sort, but he’s clearly an arm to roster. This is the most milktoast blurb here. What, the four-seamer is a little inconsistent, the slider is the breadwinner, and sadly the changeup isn’t the pitch it used to be, and yet he finds a way to be constantly productive regardless. HAPPY?! Very.

32. Kenta Maeda – Maeda has been phenomenal since returning from the IL and if he’s able to get whiffs with his slider on the nights the splitter lets him down, then it’s game over man.

33. Bailey Ober – Ober stumbled for the first time in ages over the weekend and you shouldn’t put stock into it.

34. Bobby Miller – Miller’s curve has been far better in his last two outings and I’m starting to see the development I was looking for from Miller. Don’t let the poor 3 ER first inning get in the way of a start that displayed plenty of the skills we wanted Miller to carry.

35. Bryce Miller – The four-seamer isn’t as good as it was initially, though I think he won’t allow four home runs with regularity. Stupid Twins.

36. Kodai Senga – The strikeouts are flowing and it’s hard to deny him starts these days as the WHIP has improved as well.

 

Tier 6 – The Hollys & Future Aces

 

37. Logan Gilbert – His four-seamer returned just 1/50 whiffs in his last outing and that’s as rock-bottom as it gets for Gilbert. That said, he’s not going to be in this pit forever and you have to believe it gets corrected in the near future.

38. Tarik Skubal – Skubal’s heater was fantastic in his first few starts, then struggled commanding it against the Marlins. He’ll fix it and hopefully the secondaries will come alive in the second half.

39. Reid Detmers – I haven’t seen a start with Detmers in proper command of his three weapons (four-seamer, slider, curve) for about six starts now, and yet he’s found a way to keep his head above water. He’s still awfully young and I wouldn’t consider his past performance as the prophet of his future. There is a legit ace blossoming in due time.

40. Tanner Bibee – Bibee has been so dang good for your fantasy squads and yet, I question if it’ll stay that way. He’s only had one start where his arsenal has come together, getting by at times with just two of his weapons, with none truly excelling. That said, he could be getting a stronger feel with every start and propel you to the finish line.

41. José Berríos – I didn’t know how to rank these boring-but-safer arms relative to the potential of the arms above, so I shoved them into the same tier. Berríos has introduced more four-seamers as of late to surprising success, though I’m a little worried it’ll be his downfall as it was in 2022.

42. Chris Bassitt – Bassitt has his ERA under 4.00 despite all of the turmoil he’s undergone this year. In fact, if you remove the horrible 9 ER start to launch his 2023 campaign, Bassitt has a 3.36 ERA on the season. Fun stuff.

43. Jordan Montgomery – He’s now with Texas and it should help with his Win potential and not a whole lot else. I wish he was a little more consistent with his changeup, but whatever, you start him.

44. Mitch Keller – I aggressively lowered Keller last week after I questioned if his early success was based on command that wasn’t meant to stick around for the full season. I was pleasantly surprised to watch him pull himself back together in his start against the Phillies, featuring better sweepers than I’ve seen in a while…after the first two frames. I can get behind this.

45. Sonny Gray – The curve is still mysteriously not as much of a weapon as it was in April and May, but Sonny finds a way to stick on your squad through all the turbulence.

 

Tier 7 – Innings And Confusion

 

46. Grayson Rodriguez – I have no idea how to rank Grayson. On one hand, the ceiling is so dang obvious as he spits 96-100 mph bullets to the top of the zone, then features gorgeous changeups underneath. However, he’s only had success over two starts now (his first start back from the IL was rough outside the first frame) and only one of those came with the ideal changeup. He’s become a HIPSTER where you can’t drop him for someone else to take the chance, but you also are risking a potential disaster if the command falters like it did in the spring. Let’s hope he demands a higher rank in future weeks.

47. Dylan Cease – Cease has a 1.34 WHIP on the year as he’s nearly matched his 2022 walk rate. He’s also gone in-and-out with his slider feel and after being drafted as a clear strikeout play where you’d look past the lower WHIP (well, not this low), he’s only 14th in the majors in strikeouts. Still great, just not that great to justify it all. I want to believe Cease will be better in the second half, but seeing him act as a different pitcher with each start makes him a premium Cherry Bomb you may be better off moving on from.

48. Charlie Morton – What are you going to get from Morton on a given night? I HAVE NO IDEA. He’s up to a 1.41 WHIP now after teasing us at the beginning of July before back-to-back clunkers. If you’d like to move down Morton because of that uncertainty, I have absolutely no qualms about it (does anyone actually shout “Hey! I have qualms!”) but don’t forget the high Win chance with Atlanta + a decent ERA and pile of strikeouts you’d be turning away.

49. Hunter Brown – Between Brown and Javier, it’s awfully hard to discern the better play for the rest of the season. Brown finally gave us a hint of his BSB approach in his last start, but the breakers aren’t commanded well enough. And yet, I expect him to get better over time. I don’t think you have a choice but to hold on here.

50. Cristian Javier – With Javier, we’re still waiting for him to be the man from last year, but at least we saw one of his skills fully on display against the Rangers, racking up a ton of four-seamer whiffs at the top of the zone. If only his breakers could combine for a 60-65% strike rate…

51. Gavin Williams – The four-seamer is elevated incredibly well, but I haven’t seen him will his slider and curve down with consistency. I absolutely adore the potential if he can get there.

52. Brayan Bello – Bello hasn’t fanned more than five since June 18th. Ugh. The sinker and changeup are the winners here, while the slider (and cutter?) need to take steps forward before I’m willing to put him above the other exciting arms who share similar floors.

53. Eduardo Rodriguez – I like Erod and have him in the same tier as the Cherry Bomb types as it’s up to you to decide if you want Rodriguez’s stability without a massive ceiling or the chance to push the needle in a big way.

54. Seth Lugo – I love what Lugo is doing. I hate that he goes to Coors and faces the Dodgers this week.

55. Merrill Kelly – Kelly has two games from the IL now. One was solid with good East-West command, the last one was…not. I imagine he’ll return to it, but I need to see it first.

56. Marcus Stroman – Stroman has been terrible for five of his last six games. It’s not a death sentence and will likely re-calibrate in August and September, but hot dang, that’s not fun.

 

Tier 8 – Fun And Pain

 

57. JP Sears – Sears just changed his breaking ball to a legit slider with less break and more command down-and-gloveside and I LOVE IT. His four-seamer used to be the only whiff pitch in his arsenal and the addition of a legit breaker could make him fantastic down the stretch.

58. Bryan Woo – We don’t know when the Mariners will demote Woo (this week?) and his four-seamer was far worse than the pitch we know and love in his last start. It’s likely time to move on.

59. Kyle Bradish – The slider is still incredible but the curve is still more volatile than I want it to be.

60. Edward Cabrera – Just throw strikes with your fastball. Please. He’d be under Sears if not for a blister that forced him out of his last game early. I imagine he’s fine, but I dinged him a touch for it.

 

Tier 9 – The Tobys You’re Rostering

 

61. Yusei Kikuchi – I really dig Kikuchi’s new curveball and general approach of breakers in the zone. He also flashed stellar four-seamer command last time that I don’t anticipate will stick around but hey, you never know.

62. Cristopher Sánchez – Sánchez has been a brilliant pick up in all leagues with a whiffable changeup and a sinker that earns outs. Now he gets the Royals and Nationals and you better get in if you still can.

63. Jack Flaherty – Flaherty is fine. A proper Toby these days as he doesn’t come with the ceiling you want, but you aren’t dropping him.

64. Alex Cobb – The splitter returned last time and with that in his belt, we start the man.

65. Kyle Hendricks – Hendricks is commanding his sinker and changeup like the good ole days. All he’s missing is the curve, but with just these two, he’s alright.

 

Here is where prospect pitchers would appear if they are called up as I feel those in Tier 9 and below could be off your teams next week (or now?) in 12-teamers.

 

Tier 10 – This Could Be Amazing

 

66. Lance Lynn – Do what you want. It’s obviously fun to see Lynn go to the Dodgers (“They’ll fix him!”) but that doesn’t instantly fix the fact he can’t use his secondaries with confidence and still relies heavily on his four-seamer and cutter. At the very least, he gets the Althetics next so let’s give that a shot and go from there.

67. Jon Gray – I get a sense that Gray has his peaks and valleys all season, with the latter arriving once he gets interrupted by something. Paternity leave, a blister, IL stint, whatever. He was killing it before the blister and now that we’ve seen some regularity from Gray (and his dope slider returning!) I wonder if we’ll see the four-seamer command return as soon as his next start. Just a thought.

68. Hyun Jin Ryu – Hey, he’s back! And we’re at the point of The List where we’re hitting the borderline rosterable arms, so you might as well take a chance on Ryu, bench him for the Baltimore start, and take it from there. Look for the changeup being the main pitch of the bunch.

 

Tier 11 – The Deep League Tobys

 

69. Steven Matz – Matz is elevating sinkers well at a higher velocity (95!) as he tries to get the change and curve down. With Rockie Road next, we hold and decide later.

70. José Quintana – My biggest worry about Quintana was command when he returned from the IL and already by the second start, I’m seeing the BSB with his four-seamer up and changeup/curve down. Works for me.

71. Logan Allen – Allen is fine. I can’t bank on his sweeper and changeup on a given night, which forces too much out of his fastball, which has been sitting down a tick since he returned from the minors.

72. Dean Kremer – Kremer’s cutter is looking great and as long as the four-seamer doesn’t get too much of the plate, he can be a solid six-inning arm with a good chance for a Win.

73. Aaron Civale – This ranking isn’t because Civale is now a Ray (which I’m not sure is a great thing. Why? Because he already fixed his pitch mix to go 67% curve + cutter and I’m not sure what else the Rays will do with him + he’ll likely have a tougher schedule now + the Rays pull pitchers out of games quicker than the Guardians do). This jump is because last week I was terrified of his fastball sitting four ticks down. However, he followed that sitting two ticks down, then matching his season average in his last outing. Phew. Sorry for jumping the gun there, but that was scary.

74. Braxton Garrett – There’s still work to be done with his cutter (apparently a blister forced him to change the grip and now he’s trying to get it back) but at least the slider was better in his last outing. There’s hope.

75. Tony Gonsolin – He’s okay. The splitter isn’t great, the fastball is blegh, and the slider is good enough in front of a great defense and a lovely offense.

76. Bryce Elder – He’s just a streamer now, not the arm you held onto dearly in the spring. Play Elder start-by-start based on opponent.

77. Taijuan Walker – Taijun magic is here once again and I don’t think it’ll last through the rest of the year.

78. Michael Lorenzen – He’s great against poor teams and not worth your time against average or above. Look at the schedule for the year – he truly has dodged all the strong offenses.

 

Tier 12 – The Actual Cherry Bombs

 

79. Griffin Canning – Canning was scratched tonight with “general soreness”, avoiding a potential disaster start against Atlanta. It may actually be to your benefit if it means he gets to start against the Mariners this weekend earlier than expected.

80. Luis Medina – He’s earned a ton of whiffs on sliders across four straight starts now, including his last one in Coors. Start him against the Giants next and take it from there.

81. Brady Singer – He’s a Cherry Bomb, but has come through in his last two games, the latest featuring the best slider command I’ve ever seen from him. Please tell me it’s real…

82. Nick Pivetta – The Red Sox have messed with Pivetta a fair amount and we’ll finally get to see him start tonight against the Mariners. I hope the slider is what we want it to be.

83. Domingo Germán – Germán was scratched tonight with a “physical issue” and we’re in the dark about what that means.

84. Johan Oviedo – His breakers are good, the fastball is not, and I have no idea what command you’ll get on a given night. At least there’s a decent chance for strikeouts each time.

 

Tier 13 – Stream Considerations

 

85. Clarke Schmidt – Meh. He’s a Toby, kinda. I just don’t think he offers a whole lot to get excited about, with few games coming with six innings.

86. Emmet Sheehan – I love the situation, hate the secondaries that don’t do enough to support the fastball. However, I won’t rule out the chance they improve with more starts.

87. Johnny Cueto – Cueto had a ridiculous night with his four-seamer and followed it with…still solid command but just three whiffs on the heater. It still may be enough for some Cueto magic.

88. J.P. France – He’s fine. Pitching for Houston is a great thing, but France doesn’t have anything in the tank that gets us excited.

89. Jameson Taillon – Taillons has come through a bit lately, though I think he’s squeezing everything he has out of his repertoire instead of learning a new skill that demands sustained success.

90. MacKenzie Gore – I’m done hoping Gore figures out how to nail the BSB. It’ll happen a few times down the stretch, good luck figuring out when.

91. Kutter Crawford – The four-seamer is solid, I just worry about Crawford’s kutter. His slider/sweeper grades well, though, and I wonder if there’s another level if he leans on the breaker more.

92. Matt Manning – After a pair of goose eggs, Manning was lit up by the Angels for seven runs. And yet, we saw two skills I’ve been searching for from Manning: a 95 mph heater and a slider that gets whiffs. The next step is to actually command those pitches. I wonder if he takes another step forward or a sizeable one back in his next game.

93. Andrew Heaney – He’s a headache I’d rather not touch save for the nights I’m desperate for strikeouts.

94. Graham Ashcraft – I don’t trust the recent run he’s had. The cutter is not spotted well and the slider doesn’t get whiffs.

95. Josiah Gray – He just had success executing the Canibal McSanchez and maybe that’s a new approach that’ll stick. I doubt it, but maybe.

96. Kyle Gibson – Good luck.

97. Paul Blackburn – Blackburn leaned heavily on his slider in Coors and it worked beautifully. There could be something to that.

98. Tyler Anderson – Anderson has been better with his changeup, even in the last outing where he consistently got the pitch low for outs (even if it was a sub-15 % CSW).

99. Alek Manoah – He was nearly the last cut as I don’t think it’s worthwhile to stash Manoah any longer. He has too many problems to fix and while I’m absolutely not ruling out the possibility he clicks next time out, I’d rather try out streaming options like Tyler Anderson in the short time we have left of the season.

100. Colin Rea – I didn’t expect to care for Rea at all for the rest of 2023, but here we are, fresh out of a start where his sweeper was beautifully spotted down-and-armside with fantastic results. I have to wonder if we’ll see that again, even if he allowed 5 ER in the game (he nearly earned a Golden Goal.

 

Honorable Mentions

 

You’re getting little blurbs on everyone else I can think of. I can’t help myself. This is not in ranking order.

 

 

Tyler Wells – A bit shocking to see the demotion to the minors. The Orioles should get another arm at the deadline to take his spot, though Wells is sure to return at some point before the season ends. Likely not worth the stash til then, but he’s a grab the moment he returns.

Taj Bradley – He was demoted just an hour before publication to make room for Civale. His command turned him into a Cherry Bomb we couldn’t trust and when he does return, he’ll be worth the pickup simply for the strikeout potential.

Eury Pérez – He was demoted to the minors as the Marlins are limiting his workload for the year. I imagine he’ll return around the first or second week of August and it’s a tough call to determine if you should hold on. For roto leagues, that’s about 25-30% of the remaining season, but for H2H leagues, you have to hold for your potential playoff run.

Wade Miley – He’s expected to return to the rotation on Wednesday against the Nationals and I’d prefer to sit this week out and treat it like a Still ILL. However, next week against the Rockie Road could be enticing…

Touki Toussaint – Yes, he’s pitching again. If that curveball is actually fantastic, maybe there’s a chance.

Mike Clevinger – He returned from the IL and the results were good, but I don’t love the repertoire. It’s too meh for me.

Max Fried – He’s not confirmed back yet. He won’t have the AGA label yet, but if he looks golden for the first three games, then he’ll earn it. If it were confirmed for this week, I’d have him right above Framber.

Brandon Woodruff – Likely at least one rehab game to go and, like Friend, will be in Tier 3 (next to Fried) as we hope he deserves the AGA label.

José Urquidy – Could make a start for the Astros this week and I’m not interested in taking the gamble on a Still ILL. Let’s see what he does first.

Tommy Henry – He finally embraced the slider again in his last start and then hit the IL. Bummer.

Dane Dunning – I just don’t see the upside to chase here. We all knew the low ERA was a “TEES”. I wonder if he sticks in the rotation when Eovaldi returns from the IL (expected next week).

Reese Olson – There is hope over time for Olson with a strong slider and a potential plus changeup. Not right now, though.

Ken Waldichuk – I’m curious to see how he develops the rest of the year as there is something there with a possible BSB once he refines his secondaries.

Brandon Pfaadt – His four-seamer earned seven whiffs and sadly, it came without any change of shape. Meanwhile, the slider and change were worse, and I’m not interested.

Luis Severino – Sigh. You can’t roster Severino anymore. Something is legit wrong as his pitches aren’t fooling anyone and I’m not exactly sure why. Hopefully he finds the tweak but you shouldn’t stash him until then. It might not come soon, if at all this season.

Chase Silseth – The Angels denied him a luscious matchup against the Tigers and now he’s suddenly starting on Monday against Atlanta with Griffin Canning scratched with “general soreness”. Sounds like it’s just a spot start against a phenomenal offense and I don’t want to chase that.

David Peterson – With Scherzer gone, Peterson likely returns to the rotation after working out of the pen across the last two weeks. I’m not seeing enough growth to consider him and would wait for something major to appear before rostering him.

Tylor Megill – If Verlander gets dealt, too (or maybe the Mets don’t want Peterson to start), I’d imagine Megill gets the next crack at the rotation with Luchessi not starting since July 15th and Butto struggling in Triple-A. Megill just sat 96 mph on his four-seamer in his July 29th start (up 1.5 ticks!) and maaaaaybe there’s something there. Sadly, the slider and changeup are not exceptional, while the four-seamer wasn’t trying to pull off the BSB. 

Luke Weaver – He’s trying something new with increased velocity and a Canibal McSanchez approach. Let’s see if he can do it again.

Matthew Liberatore – With The Bear off to Texas, Liberatore is expected to take over in the rotation after tossing three games in Triple-A. On the 16th, he walked seven batters, and on July 22nd, he was sitting 92 mph, not 94/95 mph. That’s not fun.

Dakota Hudson – Along with Liberatore, Hudson may get a chance or two to start if the rotation empties this week. He’s a desperate quality start play and I heavily recommend against it…unless his slider turns into the legit pitch he had very brief flashes of in the past.

Ryan Weathers – The Padres lost Wacha and may lose another arm at the deadline, keeping Weather’s rotation spot alive and well. Let him have it and we can watch from afar.

Ross Stripling – He’s in the rotation with a solid slider and a changeup that isn’t close to its 2022 self. I’m happy he’s stretched out now and maybe he’s an okay streaming option at times, but without that slow ball, I’m not interested.

Sean Manaea – He’s had flashes of success as a follower across four frames or so and it’s just not worthwhile in my book.

Jhony Brito – Recalled to the majors, and starting Monday evening with Germán scratched with a “physical issue”. Brito’s ceiling is five frames of shutout ball and a Win with five strikeouts. That’s not a ceiling to reach for.

Yonny Chirinos – I don’t love his arsenal in the slightest, but there’s a weird chance it works.

Alec Marsh – The four-seamer isn’t as good as we want it to be, even if I kinda dig the slider. It’s really hard to suggest rostering him after that atrocious start against the Yankees.

Michael Soroka – Demoted to Triple-A. Pretty disappointing to see and I hope they give him another shot soon. Once he gets the command back in order, he’s a stable 12-teamer arm.

Cole Ragans – I’m still waiting for the Royals to give Ragans a chance in the rotation after he was sitting 97/98 mph across 81 pitches from the left side, starting in the second game of a doubleheader. Let the dude cook, YOU’RE THE ROYALS.

Michael Kopech – I don’t see a good reason to roster him at the moment, but if he can string a start or two, then we’re golden.

Ryne Nelson – The changeup is supposed to be the #2 pitch now (I guess) and it’s not reliable. The cutter showed up recently and I’m not buying that yet.

Brandon Bielak – The Astros brought back Bielak and we’re not in until the matchups get better and even then…we’ll see.

Drew Smyly – He’s still considerable as a streamer and his last start featured a fun cutter/sinker east-west game with most of his curveballs down…across 4.1 innings. We need more.

Patrick Sandoval – It brings me no joy to remove The Irish Panda. He’s too inconsistent with his change and slider failing to take over games.

AJ Smith-Shawver – I’m not the biggest fan of what he brings to the table, but I’m curious how he develops over the years.

Louie Varland – Demoted to the minor leagues. It’s unfair as he was given one of the worst schedules you’ll ever see. He’ll be back and become a solid pickup when he does.

Rich Hill – He sometimes works in his weird way and let’s just be happy the 43-year-old can still do it from time to time.

Joey Wentz – Welp, the nine strikeout game wasn’t real. We move on.

Miles Mikolas – What are you chasing? This is not worth it.

Zach Davies – It’s too hard to pick your spots well.

Osvaldo Bido – You’re looking for something stable and Bido is far from it. There will be brief moments, but he’s not the arm you need.

Hogan Harris – He’s a crafty lefty who has a small chance of making it work each time he pitches.

Dakota Hudson – He’s now in the rotation for the Cards. That’s a desperate quality start play, but maybe he shows us something new?

Ronel Blanco – Blanco may be a 50% slider guy and I wonder if he’ll get more chances in the future. Be aware that he could be a decent spot start if given the chance.

Trevor Rogers – He’s expected back soon(ish. We think?) and I’m excited to see what he does.

Michael Grove – There’s potential and it’s cool to see him earn a ton of whiffs when the curveball was introduced. It does suggest there is a Guardians approach with two stellar breakers that could work for Grove over time.

Carlos Carrasco – The schedule is blegh and Carrasco doesn’t do enough. For example, eight innings of shutout ball returned just four strikeouts. I’m not interested.

Martín Pérez – He’s a Toby at best and I have to think you can find better streams most of the time.

Marco Gonzales – He’s hurt and I’ll need to see the same command when he comes back before returning to The List.

Jake Irvin – There was some intrigue here, but the velocity came down and the curve isn’t developing enough.

Ranger Suárez – He hit the wall and just isn’t worth it now. Maybe in a few weeks.

Alex Wood – He’ll hopefully go five productive frames at the risk of destroying your week. No thanks.

Patrick Corbin – Ha, that was a fun four-start ride, wasn’t it?

Brandon Williamson – His new velocity has held and the fastball/cutter combo is a decent one, but needs a little more precision + he’s still missing a legit #3 option to get whiffs.

Erik Bedard – In honor of the trade deadline, Bedard should be in our thoughts. Thanks for reading the notes! As a token of my thanks, here’s $70 off PL Pro Yearly. Use code ORIOLESTRADES at checkout.

Ryan Yarbrough – It’s cool that he’s pitching again. That doesn’t mean you have to roster his slooooow arsenal that is highly dependent on command and a fortunate BABIP for a losing ball club.

Jordan Lyles – He’s come through once when the matchup was good. ONCE.

Trevor Williams – He hasn’t been fantasy relevant for a while.

Ty Blach – It’s Coors and far too risky on any night.

Peter Lambert – It’s Coors and far too risky on any night.

Austin Gomber – It’s Coors and far too risky on any night.

Kyle Freeland – It’s Coors and far too risky on any night.

Quinn Priester – It’s slow sinkers and meh secondaries. Nope.

Jesse Scholtens – Not stretched out and holds a super low strikeout rate.

Adrian Houser – Naaaaaaah. Yes, not even after the ten-strikeout game.

Chris Murphy – The Red Sox are letting him pitch in games and that’s all there is to say about him. Hey, you just wrote that? Is it wrong?

 

 

SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Spencer StriderT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Shane McClanahan	Aces Gonna Ace	-
4	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace	-
5	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	-
6	Zac Gallen T2	Aces Gonna Ace	-
7	Tyler Glasnow	Aces Gonna Ace	-
8	Joe Musgrove	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
9	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-1
10	Blake Snell	Aces Gonna Ace	-
11	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace	-
12	Corbin Burnes T3	Ace Potential	+1
13	Zack Wheeler	Ace Potential	+3
14	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential	-
15	Pablo López	Ace Potential	+3
16	James Paxton	Ace Potential	+3
17	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential	-5
18	Joe Ryan T4	Ace Potential	-3
19	Logan Webb	Ace Potential	-2
20	George Kirby	Ace Potential	-
21	Aaron Nola	Ace Potential	-
22	Yu Darvish	Ace Potential	-
23	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential	+2
24	Justin Verlander	Ace Potential	+3
25	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential	+6
26	Julio Urías T5	Quality Starts	-2
27	Zach Eflin	Quality Starts	-1
28	Justin Steele	Quality Starts	+1
29	Andrew Abbott	Quality Starts	+7
30	Carlos Rodón	Ace Potential	-7
31	Lucas Giolito	Quality Starts	+1
32	Kenta Maeda	Quality Starts	+6
33	Bailey Ober	Quality Starts	-3
34	Bobby Miller	Quality Starts	+1
35	Bryce Miller	Quality Starts	-1
36	Kodai Senga	Quality Starts	+7
37	Logan Gilbert T6	Cherry Bomb	-4
38	Tarik Skubal	Cherry Bomb	+1
39	Reid Detmers	Cherry Bomb	-2
40	Tanner Bibee	Cherry Bomb	+8
41	José Berríos	Quality Starts	-
42	Chris Bassitt	Quality Starts	+3
43	Jordan Montgomery	Quality Starts	+4
44	Mitch Keller	Quality Starts	+16
45	Sonny Gray	Quality Starts	+4
46	Grayson Rodriguez T7	Cherry Bomb	+5
47	Dylan Cease	Cherry Bomb	-19
48	Charlie Morton	Cherry Bomb	-4
49	Hunter Brown	Cherry Bomb	+4
50	Cristian Javier	Cherry Bomb	-
51	Gavin Williams	Cherry Bomb	+3
52	Brayan Bello	Quality Starts	-12
53	Eduardo Rodriguez	Quality Starts	-7
54	Seth Lugo	Quality Starts	+9
55	Merrill Kelly	Injury Risk Quality Starts	+7
56	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	+3
57	T8	Cherry Bomb	+10
58	Bryan Woo	Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-6
59	Kyle Bradish	Cherry Bomb	-4
60	Edward Cabrera	Cherry Bomb	-3
61	Yusei Kikuchi T9	Toby	+7
62	Cristopher Sánchez	Toby	+8
63	Jack Flaherty	Toby	+1
64	Alex Cobb	Toby	+1
65	Kyle Hendricks	Toby	+4
66	Lance Lynn T10	Cherry Bomb	+8
67	Jon Gray	Cherry Bomb	+10
68	Hyun Jin Ryu	Cherry Bomb Stash Option	+UR
69	Steven Matz T11	Toby	+6
70	Jose Quintana	Toby	+18
71	Logan Allen	Toby	-13
72	Dean Kremer	Toby	+4
73	Aaron Civale	Toby	+23
74	Braxton Garrett	Toby	+11
75	Tony Gonsolin	Toby	+7
76	Bryce Elder	Toby	+8
77	Taijuan Walker	Toby	-5
78	Michael Lorenzen	Toby	+8
79	Griffin Canning T12	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb	-13
80	Luis Medina	Cherry Bomb	+10
81	Brady Singer	Cherry Bomb	+UR
82	Nick Pivetta	Cherry Bomb	+7
83	Domingo Germán	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb	-12
84	Johan Oviedo	Cherry Bomb	+3
85	Clarke Schmidt T13	Streaming Option	-12
86	Emmet Sheehan	Streaming Option	+5
87	Johnny Cueto	Streaming Option	-8
88	J.P. France	Streaming Option	-5
89	Jameson Taillon	Streaming Option	+UR
90	MacKenzie Gore	Streaming Option	-9
91	Kutter Crawford	Streaming Option	+8
92	Matt Manning	Streaming Option	+3
93	Andrew Heaney	Streaming Option	-1
94	Graham Ashcraft	Streaming Option	+UR
95	Josiah Gray	Streaming Option	+UR
96	Kyle Gibson	Streaming Option	-3
97	Paul Blackburn	Streaming Option	+UR
98	Tyler Anderson	Streaming Option	+UR
99	Alek Manoah	Stash Option	-5
100	Colin Rea	Streaming Option	+UR

 

Photo by Kiyoshi Mio/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)