Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2024 Fantasy Baseball: 3/11 UPDATE

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. Before the notes and rankings, an injury table outlines where players would be relatively ranked if they were fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week. (Spring edition: I have a few hypothetical rotation arms on The List who will be off the ranks if they leave camp out of the rotation).
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. The Cherry Bomb players are likely going to underperform those labeled as a Toby across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase ceiling vs. floor in many cases. Pick the one that you need most in your situation, of course.
6. I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots. Injuries are so strange (especially in spring training) and instead of shoving them at random moments on The List, I’ve elected to throw all of them into one table here for you, the wise fantasy manager, to determine if it’s worthwhile to take the injury discount and when.

I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!

One last point about that – pitchers often need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 75,000+ word Top 400 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.

Let’s get to it.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
• These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.

 

I’ve changed the notes this year to have a small blurb on everyone. Much easier to write and follow along in my view and it matches the formatting of the streamers. Please leave your feedback on this change – is it better or worse?

 

Tier 1 – The True Aces

 

1. Spencer Strider (ATL) – This is obvious. You don’t need me.

2. Corbin Burnes (BAL) – The situation in Baltimore helps with a better home park and higher Win chance. Trust Burnes to make the right adjustments with his pitches to avoid the longball more often and reduce the clunker outings in 2024.

3. Zack Wheeler (PHI) – Arguably the best four-seamer/sinker pair of heaters in the game, and now he has an improved splitter. You love to see it.

 

Tier 2 – AGA With Something To Prove

They have the AGA tag, though they all have a quirk that could mean they lose it by May.

 

4. Pablo López (MIN) – Tied for third most strikeouts in 2023 and should have a lower WHIP in his second season with increased velocity and improved arsenal depth.

5. Luis Castillo (SEA) – The four-seamer is legit, the slider is filthy, and his changeup is still solid. The adjusted sinker approach only made things easier for Castillo.

6. George Kirby (SEA) – I trust Kirby to make the right adjustment with his four-seamer to keep batters from effectively knocking it in play as often as they did last season. Meanwhile, his secondaries get better every season.

7. Kevin Gausman (TOR) – The shoulder is fine and Gausman should be productive once again, even if I don’t anticipate his hit rate to be elite once again – his four-seamer gets hit harder than ideal (he lowered his arm angle last year and now has a FLAT four-seamer…and yet he had the lowest hiLoc% rate of any SP four-seamer) – making the WHIP continue to be the element preventing true SP #1 ace status.

8. Logan Webb (SFG) – His changeup may be the best in the game and mirrors his sinker so effectively that he’s destined to go deep into games once again as batters softly ground out. Meanwhile, the sinker can sneak into the zone for an elite 30%+ called strike rate as batters try to outsmart the changeup, and if Webb can unlock his slider, the days of 25-30% strikeout rates could appear. That’s a fun ceiling on top of a stable floor.

9. Cole Ragans (KCR) – He has a six pitch mix (new sinker y’all) that he commands effectively with a wise approach of not giving into batters. We’re talking 98+ mph heaters upstairs with cutters, curves, sliders, and changeups that all miss bats. It’s kinda bonkers and the injury history isn’t nearly as poor as you think. The biggest problem is his team – can Ragans earn enough Wins with the Royals offense supporting him?

10. Tarik Skubal (DET) – Despite some questions about Skubal’s arsenal strength (can he improve his slider? Is his command that elite?), Skubal’s 95/96 mph heater has become easy 97/98 mph in the spring, paired with a fantastic changeup that is sure to devour lineups consistently. Get hyped.

11. Tyler Glasnow (LAD) – It’s hard to predict volume, but Glasnow feels like one we should be able to say “this guy ain’t doing it all year”. After all, he hasn’t tossed 130 SP in the majors for a single year of his career and the Dodgers will do everything they can to ensure Glasnow is healthy for their potential playoff run. That said, his slider was the final piece of the puzzle that turned Glasnow into a bonafide stud and with the Dodgers crew behind him, the Wins should pour in. As long as he’s healthy, of course.

12. Zac Gallen (ARI) – I’m concerned about Gallen’s legitimacy. His arsenal does not overpower batters as much as those above in the ranks, relying on low call strikes to allow him to induce chases out of the zone with his curve and changeup. It’s a tight balance of strikes in the zone and timely chases that could fall apart quickly. In addition, after throwing 240+ innings last year as he pitched through the World Series, I’m concerned about his heightened injury risk for a pitcher reliant on volume. My logic is to take Glasnow instead for the higher quality of inning, the higher ceiling of Ragans and Skubal, or the higher floor of Webb.

13. Max Fried (ATL) – I was initially concerned about Fried’s health after recovering from a forearm strain in 2023, but now that he’s been in spring for over month with good velocity marks and zero signs of degradation (ignore the actual results, he’s working on things), Fried should rise back up your ranks. His quality is one of the safest around for one of the winningest teams around.

14. Aaron Nola (PHI) – If only Nola goes upstairs with his flat four-seamer more often…Sigh. He’s been the most reliable 200 inning guy around, and even in his down year, his WHIP soared to…1.15. Yeah. Expect better as the defense behind him improves + HRs go a little more in his favor.

 

Tier 3 – We Expect Success Every Night

They have to earn the AGA tag but are just a few starts away from it.

 

15. Bobby Miller (LAD) – The slider should wake up in his second season to become more of a putaway offering, raising his strikeout rate well past the 25% clip and flirting with 30%. I sincerely hope the Dodgers stop encouraging him to focus on low fastballs, though. At 100 mph, that pitch should blow past batters at the letters, thank you very much.

16. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) – The way I see it, the Dodgers will have Yamamoto pitch fewer innings than Miller given how long they expect Yamamoto to have on their team and how Miller was set up for a 160-180 inning season after 2023. Throw in some acclimation to playing games in a new league with a different ball, sprinkle in a fastball that isn’t as great as I originally thought, and you have yourself a consistent arm who may have a few growing pains and a gap in strikeouts and Wins than the likes of Nola and Fried. Volume, y’all.

17. Zach Eflin (TBR) – Eflin should be the kitchen sink arm of gold for Tampa Bay, leaning more on curves and cutters for the second season in a row. There could be a step back in consistency + his injury track record isn’t sparkling, making me a touch concerned he can hit 180+ innings. That said, he’s still a safe play as an SP #2 for any squad.

18. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) – Oh hey, Nick is super indecisive again. I watched more Grayson and his command is still a bit wonky, okay? It’s always difficult to discern if a rookie is going to continue developing or if they need more time than others to unlock their true potential. The addition of a sinker might help Grayson, but we haven’t seen it a whole lot, making him still hyper reliant on a hard heater that isn’t spotted as gracefully as I’d like.

19. Eury Pérez (MIA) – I ultimately decided that it’s too dang fun to watch Eury on a regular basis. The potential is very real as his heater profiles out to be one of the elites…if he can locate the dang thing upstairs. Seriously, he’s hurting himself with its currently middle-away locations and all he has to do is go a touch higher and he’s reached the promised land. What about the breakers? They’re already good enough. That fastball could carry an entire start on its own if he stopped making it easier for batters to hit with regularity.

20. Freddy Peralta (MIL) – He was so dang good after the first two months of last season and his upped velocity is still holding in the spring. However, Peralta has made a career of volatility and it feels wrong to rank him any higher with his track record of both low volume and inability to produce consistently across a full year. Those super-cross body pitchers are so hard to rank.

 

Tier 4 – So Dang Close To Greatness

I trust all these pitchers to produce this season while they also carry the ability to be more than an SP #3.

 

21. Joe Musgrove (SDP) – The only reason you’re seeing Musgrove lower than this on other rankings is because of health concerns and I don’t share the same feelings. He dropped a weight on his toe, then had shoulder stiffness as he tried to ramp up a little too quickly coming back, and the elbow bursitis had the same catalyst, in my view. The early results in spring have not been promising, but his health is intact. That’s what matters.

22. Framber Valdez (HOU) – The changeup is a major weapon against RHB that should increase in usage this year…if he’s reluctant to go to his cutter once again. Just stop with so many dang sinkers, alright? I worry about Valdez’s hit rate with so many grounders and a sinker that gets pummeled constantly, but his Win chance is high and his ERA should help far more than hurt.

23. Justin Steele (CHC) – I was reluctant to rank Steele this high, but I’ve become a bigger believer in his command of the four-seamer (it’s a cutter), while his slider grades out far better than I expected. I hope the new changeup he’s been working on takes a step forward as well as Steele feels like one of the final arms who could be a proper workhorses with the potential for 180+ strikeouts at 180 innings.

24. Bailey Ober (MIN) – We already liked Ober before the spring and now that he’s sitting 1-2 ticks harder with a slider/cutter that gets strikes, and now we love Ober. You sound Gollum. What, you don’t want a ring? Touché.

25. Chris Sale (ATL) – Sale is looking healthy and is in a much better team context than the Red Sox last year. Eric Samulski has sold me on the morale boost of joining Atlanta and I doubt you’ll regret having Sale on your squad, making him a productive member as long as he stays healthy.

26. Bryan Woo (SEA) – The #1 way to find value starting pitchers in drafts is to draft pitchers who match three criteria: 1) They have the leash, ability, and rotation security to go six frames every five days 2) They have above-average command 3) They have a realistically attainable ceiling of a 25%+ strikeout rate. Woo ticks all of these boxes with the best HAVAA of any SP’s four-seamer that is sure to dominate batters incessantly in the year ahead, with solid command that makes me believe he will grow into his secondaries during his sophomore season. I’m all in.

27. Sonny Gray (STL) – You know that hamstring injury? It looks like he’s going to be just fine, maybe missing a start or two. Get the discount as Gray is going to cruise constantly, earning Wins and boasting solid ratios throughout the year. He’s a safe get for any rotation.

28. Yu Darvish (SDP) – The dude finds a way to pile strikeouts each year and is figuring out ways to perfect his approach constantly. I trust Darvish’s innate skills to find the approach that works best, letting his legit breakers soar, and focusing on his using his four-seamer as a deadly weapon with two-strikes.

29. Michael King (SDP) – Like Woo, King ticks all the boxes you want for volume, command, and strikeout ability, though I have a little more concern about King’s longevity this year. I hope he’s able to collect 160+ frames, but without a full season under his belt yet (nor the routine of it like Woo), there’s a bit more haze. In addition, King’s approach of sinker/sweeper/change (with a sprinkle of four-seamers) makes him a little more susceptible to damage against LHB than Woo, whose four-seamer can still overwhelm.

30. Joe Ryan (MIN) – I was hoping to see Ryan with a new breaker this spring, but sadly all we got was a new sinker. Hey, that helps! It does and should fend off home runs as batters get bamboozled by the horizontal bend, but I want that breaker to let Ryan soar into the new year. I’m still down to draft Ryan given the great four-seamer shape and its elite precision, but hot dang, he needs something more than that meh splitter.

31. Logan Gilbert (SEA) – Yes, Gilbert is the fourth ranked Mariner. Blame his questionable four-seamer command that held a sub 10% SwStr rate last year. Expect the WHIP to climb this year from its unsustainable sub 1.08 mark last year as we can only hope the heater can return to form. At least the new slider should stick around…right?

 

Tier 5 – Why Do I Feel So Scared?

This is the toughest tier to rank and will likely be filled with landmines. Which will turn into the stud you dreamed of and which will be the bust?

 

32. Blake Snell (FA) – He should sign at any moment and this rank isn’t reflective of that haze but rather the uncertainty of his ability in 2024. Snell threw the fewest mistake pitches of any starter, but did so as the cost of free passes and delicately left them stranded at an unrealistic clip during his Cy Young run. And despite all of it, he still had a 1.19 WHIP and failed to complete the sixth inning with regularity. It’s just too much annoyance for me.

33. Shota Imanaga (CHC) – There’s a part of me that feels like Imanaga is going to turn into the classic Robbie Ray or Matthew Boyd mold that Hunter Greene has presently claimed – high strikeouts at the cost of plenty of longballs. If Imanaga can incorporate his splitter and curve enough to keep batters off his fastball when it falls down in the zone (or his slider when hung upstairs), he’s destined to be the arm that makes your leaguemates jealous. I trust his command more than that trio, though, which makes me believe he’ll avoid the dreaded Cherry Bomb tag and be the AGA his name suggests.

34. Jesús Luzardo (MIA) – Despite sitting 96+ mph, his extension and fastball shape makes for a super hittable heater that has to be located well to get through games. His slider isn’t well commanded either and 2023 was the first season when he avoided a major injury across his career. Too many warts for me to chase.

35. Nick Pivetta (BOS) – The new whirlybird sweeper was a gamechanger for Pivetta and paired with his cutter and curve, it made for the full arsenal he’s always dreamed of.

36. Tanner Bibee (CLE) – His fastball terrible and his slider + changeup supported a phenomenal rookie campaign. I worry about the command of the latter pair, which need to improve in order to replicate success without a strong heater. But hey, he already did it once and he could get better, right?

37. Dylan Cease (CHW) – The four-seamer has elite velocity and iVB, but average VAA and terrible extension, and as a two-pitch pitcher, Cease needs to locate or get pummeled. For a guy without strong command, that’s not a gamble I like taking. But the strikeouts. Yeah, they’ll be there, and so will many fantastic games along with the clunkers.

38. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) – The velocity is back to 96 mph, but will he keep it there without injury? This would mark the third year in a row if he were to fall to 93/94 mph during the year, after all.

39. Gavin Williams (CLE) – I would have Williams above Bibee if it weren’t for what seems to be a minor injury scare that we’re waiting to hear more about. Once that’s resolved, I’d favor Williams’ extension and solid four-seamer to be more consistent than Bibee, especially as we expect Williams to improve upon his slider and curve in his second season.

 

Tier 5.5 – The Pitcher List Hall Of Famers

 

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Tier 6 – I Like These Guys, Right?

I can see how all of these arms become obvious draft targets in retrospect come April 15th, but still have a few things to overcome.

 

40. Kutter Crawford (BOS) – I adore Crawford’s arsenal. The only question is if he can consistently go six frames throughout a full season. If so, we’re golden.

41. Triston McKenzie (CLE) – He’s healthy once again and we should be treating McKenzie like we did at this time last year. Sign me up for a 25% strikeout arm with one of the best iVB four-seamers in the game and a stupid good curveball.

42. Cristian Javier (HOU) – I’m a believer in Javier finding his slider once again as it was the sole reason for his decline in 2023 (nope, not the velocity on the heater as it did all the right things regardless). Just throw 60%+ strikes with secondaries (it doesn’t need to be the slider!) and Javier’s four-seamer can do the rest.

43. Nestor Cortes (NYY) – He’s healthy in camp right now and that’s a wonderful thing, even if the results haven’t been great. The velocity was down to 91 mph (not 92 mph) last time out and given his track record, we could get negative news at any moment, but for now, he’s healthy and that demands a Top 50 SP ranking.

44. Bryce Miller (SEA) – I so badly want to believe in Miller but I just don’t think he has good enough command to properly develop the same way as Woo. I truly hope I’m wrong, though, and the small sample of one year isn’t enough for me to be completely out.

45. Hunter Brown (HOU) – I’m undecided and will simply put him because it’s hard not to believe the Astros will help him refine the secondaries and nail down the four-seamer approach, while last year’s fatigue should rectified in another year. You know, building stamina n all.

 

Tier 7 – Hollys + Maybe There’s More

These are Quality Start arms who may have more in the tank to push a 25% strikeout rate.

 

46. Brayan Bello (BOS) – I love the sinker/changeup combo and the increased emphasis of a slider entering this year. He has the tools to become something more given his makeup as a mini-Webb.

47. Chris Bassitt (TOR) – He’s done this for ages and it’s hard to deny the value of Bassitt’s ratios + Wins on the Jays.

48. Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) – He’s just like Bello from the opposite side, but without as many previously logged frames. That changeup is disgusting.

49. Shane Bieber (CLE) – How legit are the reports of his increased velocity? Is he totally healthy? If he’s actually sitting 93 mph and featuring whiffable secondaries once again, he shoots up into my Top 40 starters easily.

50. Merrill Kelly (ARI) – It’s a good defense, solid offense, and his last two seasons have been fueled by a new (now old) changeup grip. I am concerned his four-seamer SwStr rates may fall this year.

51. Jordan Montgomery (FA) – He exploded in the playoffs as he nibbled as effectively as ever around the zone and I don’t believe it to be a consistent trait for JorMont. He’s fine.

52. José Berríos (TOR) – The switch to sinkers over four-seamers helped Berríos plenty last season, though he’s still susceptible to high ICR rates and it makes me a little uncomfortable. At least you get solid volume here at hopefully little ratio sacrifice.

 

Tier 8 – A Leap of Faith At The Cliff’s Edge

Now that we’re past the “hey, this is legit value I’m unlikely to drop this season”, it’s time to shift to pure upside. It’s why these rankings are more aggressive than projections or likely other rankings you’ve seen elsewhere. It’s a 12-teamer and you should be embracing the burn-and-churn of your starting pitchers.

 

53. A.J. Puk (MIA) – His heater is great. His slider is great. His splitter exists and I haven’t been able to see it properly in action yet. The biggest concern is his stamina through the season – can he go six innings? For how long? – and we’ll worry about that later.

54. Hunter Greene (CIN) – There will be a ton of strikeouts so fine, go for it. I personally think Greene is too much of a Cherry Bomb with a heater that is much more hittable than the velocity would suggest. The new splitter and curve aren’t enough for me to believe he can overcome the home park and his fastballs that leak over the middle of the plate.

55. DL Hall (MIL) – This could change quickly if the next week or two showcase mediocrity, but I see Hall and I see a legit four-seamer, slider, and changeup that can all be thrown for strikes while racking up whiffs. That’s the fun I want.

56. Reese Olson (DET) – It looks like Olson is ahead of Mize, which means Olson could be a solid ratio play throughout the year without sacrificing a ton of strikeouts. Just stop throwing that dang four-seamer.

57. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) – I want to believe that Kikuchi will become a 55%+ hiLoc four-seamer guy this year, but until he actually does that, I’m just wishcasting and need to recognize that he doesn’t have a long history of stellar command. The potential is there for 25%-30% strikeout rates with solid ratios, though.

58. Garrett Whitlock (BOS) – I was more encouraged by Whitlock before his recent performances, which have come without the slider of old. He’s in the dream position to soar in the Red Sox rotation, but if that slider is gone, then I may lower him more in the ranks.

59. Tanner Houck (BOS) – The velocity has apparently been up this spring and if he has figured out a sustainable way to attack LHB, Houck could finally have that season we’ve wanted since he appeared in late 2021.

 

Tier 9 – More Fun But With More Risk

There’s a ton of value to be had in all of them, but it could go wrong very quickly. Don’t get too enamored.

 

60. Jared Jones (PIT) – He chucks upper-90s heaters with a disgusting slider. I hope he can replicate the sub 10% walk rates of the minors along the way, though, and the Pirates may ultimately keep him out of the rotation when leaving camp. The upside is too great to ignore if he lands a rotation spot.

61. Ryan Weathers (MIA) – Weathers leads all pitchers with 17 strikeouts this spring with a 1.32 ERA in just 13.2 IP. It’s a product of increased four-seamer velocity and an improved slider and now with a rotation spot, you should consider Weathers in your drafts just to see what happens.

62. James Paxton (LAD) – Will this last all season? Absolutely not. Will the Dodgers squeeze the most out of Paxton while they can out of the gate? Absolutely.

63. MacKenzie Gore (WSH) – I was out until I watched him not only sport a tick more fastball velocity, but actually elevate them with intent in multiple starts this year. It could just be a flash in the pan, but if that’s real, Gore could have a true breakout ahead.

64. Taj Bradley (TBR) – His command has been terrible since he arrived, but hey, maybe it’s actually better now. I don’t think it is and I’ll drop him the first week. Okay! That’s totally fine.

65. Ryan Pepiot (TBR) – I don’t like Pepiot’s command either, but he doesn’t have the same ceiling as Bradley, so he’s one spot lower. Hopefully he can go full BSB with the heater/change/slider, though.

66. Nick Lodolo (CIN) – Lodolo finally debuted in the spring and was reported to feature increased velocity as he felt as good as ever. And yet, he still pitches in Cincy. It’s chaotic, but maybe Lodolo has enough with his fastball, slider, and (hopefully) improved changeup.

67. Gavin Stone (LAD) – I’m not sold that Stone is destined for success as a changeup-first arm, but we could see a step forward after an atrocious introduction to the league. Why not take a chance as he takes the #5 spot early in the year and see how it goes?

Tier 10 – The Tobys You Kinda Like

These arms are generally going to stick on your team throughout the year, but you constantly wondering if they are doing enough to help.

 

68. Aaron Civale (TBR) – After reviewing a full start with him on the YouTube channel in December, it became clear Civale plans to lean more on sliders in 2024. I hope we see it.

69. Marcus Stroman (NYY) – You know what you’re getting with a strong offense behind him. Who needs strikeouts, right?

70. Matt Manning (DET) – If he’s sitting 95 mph, I could see a breakout year for Manning with his solid slider in support. Its shape with his extension could make for a sneaky great year.

71. Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) – I worry about his hittability and declining SwStr rates, but heading to Arizona should help him be relevant throughout the year.

 

Tier 11 – Off Your Team Next Week

They either have legit problems that make me skeptical they can avoid the HIPSTER tag or they are competing for a rotation spot and may miss out come April.

 

72. Carlos Rodón (NYY) – The velocity isn’t there yet and I have no reason to believe it’ll come back in a few weeks. I may be absolutely wrong about this, but his velocity was higher in 2021 and 2022. It doesn’t look right.

73. Erick Fedde (CHW) – I still haven’t gotten any proper data on Fedde, nor a good camera angle to proper scout him. That said, reports are that he has increased velocity, a far better arsenal, and more strikeout potential than his days with the Nationals. He has all the freedom he’d ever want in the White Sox rotation and I recommend taking a stab at Fedde the opening weekend to see if it’s something you want to hold onto or not.

74. Mitch Keller (PIT) – His fastballs are terrible, and if Keller leans into his cutter and breakers, there’s a chance he stabilizes across the year. Until then, he’s a Cherry Bomb who relies on pristine command to thrive.

75. Chris Paddack (MIN) – I don’t see a pitcher with an elite arsenal. Maybe what he has is enough to be consistently productive, but I get the sense he’s mediocre with more risk than this is worth.

76. Ryne Nelson (ARI) – He’s been showcasing 97 mph at times this spring with an improved breaker and intent to elevate. With a comfortable #5 spot for the Diamondbacks, I can’t help but wonder if Nelson is primed for a sneaky good year.

77. Louie Varland (MIN) – JUST LET THE DANG MAN START. His fastball/cutter/slider approach is just too dang good.

78. Casey Mize (DET) – Coming off TJS, the Tigers are likely to limit Mize early (pen?) and slide him into the rotation when a spot opens up. Instead of the meh sinker of old, Mize now has a legit four-seamer at 95/96 mph with great iVB and apparently the splitter of his college days. That should get you hyped coming from a pitcher with above-average command.

79. Reynaldo López (ATL) – If Atlanta elects to go with ReyLo instead of Elder, I’m grabbing him everywhere. It’s a strong four-seamer foundation with a legit slider + curve and changeup on the fringe, and all he needs is one of them to be a stable 60%+ strike pitch. I think he has it in him, making for a legit arm in an ideal team context.

80. Garrett Crochet (CHW) – I don’t have much data to work with on Crochet, but he’s worth the spec add if he steals a rotation spot for the White Sox. It’s a hard heater with a proper slider from the left side with legit extension and that could make things come easily with plenty of strikeouts across at least five innings of work.

 

Tier 12 – Fine, You Need Some Innings

Sneaky starters who could find you some wins or quality starts but shouldn’t be held with adoration in your 12-teamers.

 

81. Cole Irvin (BAL) – I know, I know, but he has increased velocity this spring and looks like it’s here to stay. Great team context and a track record of solid command could make him a better version of Wade Miley.

82. Michael Wacha (KCR) – I love the home park and Wacha’s command + elite changeup make for a decent Toby you can quickly move on from if it goes south.

83. Charlie Morton (ATL) – He’s more hittable than ever and while the strikeouts and Wins are cool, I’m terrified of the ratios. The Wins may not be as plentiful because of a likely increase in ERA, too.

84. Seth Lugo (KCR) – He has a rotation spot and should be a regular streamer for you, but he’ll make you pull your hair out if you’re relying him every week of the year.

85. Tyler Wells (BAL) – We’ve been awfully quiet about Wells this off-season and now that the Orioles need him in the rotation, Wells could put on the command clinic of last year as he had incredible pitch separation to grant stupid good ratios to trusting managers. If it’s not there, we move on.

86. José Urquidy (HOU) – Don’t forget about Urquidy as he’s solidified a spot in the Houston rotation. He’s good enough to last six frames and steal many Wins while flirting with a strikeout per inning if he spots his four-seamer.

87. Michael Soroka (CHW) – Soroka is in a great situation in Chicago and who knows what he can bring to table after many years removed from the game due to injury. You may have a secret quality start stud here.

88. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) – Some are buying into Pfaadt, but I’m worried that his best pitch is a sweeper that gets crushed by LHB. The four-seamer doesn’t get elevated enough and his changeup is inconsistent. I don’t see a clear path to being much more, save for getting in the great rhythm he had last fall.

89. Clarke Schmidt (NYY) – The Yankees will be turning to Schmidt to go as deep as possible and if he’s able to figure out his cutter to LHB, he’ll be able to produce enough to justify a 12-teamer roster spot.

90. J.P. France (HOU) – France expressed his desire to return to his SwStr rate of old this season and with a deep arsenal, I can’t help but wonder if France becomes a reliable arm as he settles into a rotation spot with the Astros. Or he’ll get displaced when Verlander returns and we’ll move on.

 

Tier 13 – The Desperate Dart Throws

I’m skeptical of all these arms, but some legitimate elements of each could blossom early in the year.

 

91. JP Sears (OAK) – His four-seamer is looking great in the spring with more zip and precision upstairs, but the rest of his arsenal is lagging behind + it’s the A’s.

92. Jordan Hicks (SFG) – Hicks’ slider was much better in his Sunday outing, but I’m still waiting to see what else he has outside of sinker/slider. Also, is his sinker effective enough at “just” 96/97 mph instead of 100+?

93. Trevor Rogers (MIA) – We’ve barely seen Rogers this spring but with the news of Edward Cabrera’s shoulder, Rogers likely gets to start in the rotation if not hold it for the year. Let’s hope he can look like his early 2021 self again.

94. Kyle Harrison (SFG) – He’s a Cherry Bomb who you’ll be stuck with all year. I don’t trust the command and his arsenal is too shallow to save him. This has HIPSTER written all over it.

95. Griffin Canning (LAA) – His four-seamer and slider get hit far too hard + I don’t trust the Angels to get the most out of him.

96. Joe Boyle (OAK) – His stuff is so good. His command is so bad. Don’t fall for guys who can’t locate (this is different than Snell, who misses with a purpose. Big difference than Boyle who literally aims for the middle of the plate with every pitch).

97. Luis Severino (NYM) – I’m not seeing an improvement this spring that would suggest that Severino has fixed his issues from last season.

98. Tylor Megill (NYM) – His four-seamer is down in velocity, isn’t located well, and his new splitter has failed to sit low with any consistency. Oh, and that four-seamer has terrible movement and relies solely on extension. Blegh.

99. Lance Lynn (STL) – The four-seamer is everything and has gotten worse every season. Moving to the Cardinals may help just for the change of scenary, but it’s a longshot.

100. Bowden Francis (TOR) – With Manoah on the mend, the Jays will likely turn to Francis, who sports a great curveball and a four-seamer with solid shape to it. However, I worry his command isn’t there, nor that he has a third or fourth pitch to help complement the pair. Pay attention early in the year and maybe there’s some hidden hold here.

 

Honorable Mentions

You’re getting little blurbs on everyone else contending for a rotation spot or not on the Rockies (mostly). This is not in ranking order.

 

Albert Suarez (BAL) – I wanted him at 100, but ultimately had to push him off the ranks. I can’t help but wonder if the Orioles go with Suarez if he can showcase a better cutter as he pumps 94-97 mph heaters upstairs with surprising consistency.

Dean Kremer (BAL) – It’s all about his cutter’s success and I don’t think his repertoire is all that great. There’s a small part of me that wonders if the Orioles will put up with Kremer and maybe give a shot to Suarez or Armbruester early in the year. Small.

Alek Manoah (TOR) – Shoulder stuff + it’s been so long since he’s been good + in retrospect, how was he that good?

Reid Detmers (LAA) – The four-seamer is not a good pitch and he’s far too inconsistent with everything else.

Aaron Ashby (MIL) – I expect him in the minors to start the year as he needs to work on his command and properly stretch out again.

Ricky Tiedemann (TOR) – The Jays are being careful with Tiedemann and should start the year in the minors + I don’t think he has great command as mostly two-pitch pitcher that speaks to more volatility than I’m willing to put up with in a 12-teamer.

Zack Littell (TBR) – I just don’t think what he does is all that great. Maybe if he showcases that he can be a BSB guy, then I’ll jump in. Just a streamer for now.

Logan Allen (CLE) – He’s a Toby and we don’t draft those.

Jack Flaherty (DET) – He’s all over the place right now. This is so much chaos that I don’t want in my life.

Kenta Maeda (DET) – Velocity is down and the secondaries aren’t missing bats. I’ll wait and see instead.

Brady Singer (KCR) – Just got blown up in the spring, making it harder to believe that he’s truly expanded the repertoire to a better place.

Chase Silseth (LAA) – The slider and splitter need to be excellent to make up for the meh heater. I don’t see it.

Patrick Sandoval (LAA) – Ditto, but slider and changeup instead.

Tyler Anderson (LAA) – He’s a desperate streamer.

Jon Gray (TEX) – It’s a great slider and nothing else. There’s strikeout upside with some Win potential as a stream, but it breaks the Huascar Rule.

Andrew Heaney (TEX) – He’s the poster child of chaos.

Dane Dunning (TEX) – There are times his slider and cutter do enough to make it work. Maybe worth a pickup for a Vargas Rule at some point.

Cody Bradford (TEX) – He has a rotation spot, so maybe a desperate streamer?

Bryce Elder (ATL) – He has the #5 spot for Atlanta at the moment, and even if he fends of ReyLo, it’s just a sinker/slider approach that imploded in the second half.

Andrew Abbott (CIN) – He nearly made it on The List, but ultimately, I don’t like his team context and his whole approach isn’t refined. The four-seamer doesn’t overwhelm and the breakers are inconsistent.

Adrian Houser (NYM) – It’s fastballs all day and sometimes it works.

Sean Manaea (NYM) – I’m not seeing enough growth in the secondaries to chase this again, even if he’s at 93+.

José Quintana (NYM) – Not the worst streaming option when he’s locked in with his command.

Josiah Gray (WSH) – He had some moments this spring, but it doesn’t look like he’s boasting any major changes to the repertoire. No thanks.

Patrick Corbin (WSH) – There’s a new cutter for both RHB and LHB that may actually make a difference this season. Sleeper for NL-Only..? Crazy, I know.

Kyle Hendricks (CHC) – It’s getting worse and that’s not a fun time for an 87 mph heater.

Jordan Wicks (CHC) – He just struck out six with his heater, a pitch that was awfully pedestrian (if not worse) last year. I haven’t seen any other signs that he’s made the pitch remarkably better, and I’d sit out until we see him perform in season as a proper streaming option.

Nick Martinez (CIN) – I hope he’s actually starting and throwing at least 40% changeups while axing the dang four-seamer.

Graham Ashcraft (CIN) – The command is just so bad. The stuff may help him survive some games with low strikeout totals, but hot dang, it’s not a fun time.

Frankie Montas (CIN) – There’s a little intrigue as the opening day starter vs. the Nationals, though he needs to display 96+ mph heaters with a legit splitter & slider before I’d sign in with Cincy as his home park.

Colin Rea (MIL) – He looks to be starting for the Brewers and maybe that’s enough to warrant a stream here and there.

Jakob Junis (MIL) – Junis could have a starting gig and recently displayed lower velocity with just a two pitch mix and only one whiff on his signature slider. Yeah.

Wade Miley (MIL) – He’s 50/50 to start the year on the IL and even if he was in the rotation, do you really want to trust Miley and a possible 15% strikeout rate?

Miles Mikolas (STL) – There’s so little to chase here. You can do better.

Steven Matz (STL) – Even hitting 97+ on his sinker over the weekend, Matz still failed to earn whiffs. This isn’t it.

Jhony Brito (SDP) – Pay attention to Brito, especially in deeper leagues. Could be a sneaky 5-6 inning arm with his sinker, changeup, cutter, and curve. Solid defense, great spring home park, and good enough offense to secure quiet Wins.

Mason Black (SFG) – The Giants could turn to Black as a starter and pay attention to his first start or two to see if this can stick.

Keaton Winn (SFG) – He’s making his spring debut on Wednesday, though he’s unlikely to be ready by opening day. If he comes close to repeating the success of his splitter, he may find his way onto The List by May.

 

SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Spencer StriderT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
3	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
4	Pablo López T2	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
5	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
6	George Kirby	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
7	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
8	Logan Webb	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
9	Cole Ragans	Aces Gonna Ace	+5
10	Tarik Skubal	Aces Gonna Ace	+15
11	Tyler Glasnow	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+5
12	Zac Gallen	Aces Gonna Ace	-3
13	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+9
14	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace	-3
15	Bobby Miller T3	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
16	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Aces Gonna Ace	-4
17	Zach Eflin	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
18	Grayson Rodriguez	Aces Gonna Ace	-3
19	Eury Pérez	Aces Gonna Ace	+5
20	Freddy Peralta	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+3
21	Joe Musgrove T4	Ace Potential	-2
22	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential	-2
23	Justin Steele	Ace Potential	+6
24	Bailey Ober	Ace Potential	+10
25	Chris Sale	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+12
26	Bryan Woo	Ace Potential	+10
27	Sonny Gray	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+3
28	Yu Darvish	Ace Potential	+3
29	Michael King	Ace Potential	+6
30	Joe Ryan	Ace Potential	+3
31	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	-5
32	Blake Snell T5	Ace Potential	-4
33	Shota Imanaga	Ace Potential	-1
34	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential	-7
35	Nick Pivetta	Ace Potential	+3
36	Tanner Bibee	Ace Potential	+3
37	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential	+4
38	Nathan Eovaldi	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+13
39	Gavin Williams	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+13
40	Kutter Crawford T6	Cherry Bomb	+15
41	Triston McKenzie	Cherry Bomb	+27
42	Cristian Javier	Cherry Bomb	+11
43	Nestor Cortes	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb	+29
44	Bryce Miller	Cherry Bomb	+13
45	Hunter Brown	Cherry Bomb	+16
46	Brayan Bello T7	Quality Starts	-2
47	Chris Bassitt	Quality Starts	-4
48	Cristopher Sánchez	Quality Starts	-2
49	Shane Bieber	Quality Starts	+14
50	Merrill Kelly	Quality Starts	-5
51	Jordan Montgomery	Quality Starts	-2
52	José Berríos	Quality Starts	-4
53	A.J. Puk T8	Strikeout Upside	+27
54	Hunter Greene	Strikeout Upside	+17
55	DL Hall	Strikeout Upside	+12
56	Reese Olson	Strikeout Upside	+36
57	Yusei Kikuchi	Strikeout Upside	+1
58	Garrett Whitlock	Strikeout Upside	+35
59	Tanner Houck	Strikeout Upside	+27
60	Jared Jones T9	Cherry Bomb	+UR
61	Ryan Weathers	Cherry Bomb	+UR
62	James Paxton	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb	+28
63	MacKenzie Gore	Cherry Bomb	+UR
64	Taj Bradley	Cherry Bomb	+13
65	Ryan Pepiot	Cherry Bomb	-11
66	Nick Lodolo	Cherry Bomb	+3
67	Gavin Stone	Cherry Bomb	+UR
68	Aaron Civale T10	Toby	-6
69	Marcus Stroman	Toby	-5
70	Matt Manning	Toby	+UR
71	Eduardo Rodriguez	Toby	-5
72	Carlos Rodón T11	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb	-22
73	Erick Fedde	Cherry Bomb	+15
74	Mitch Keller	Cherry Bomb	+4
75	Chris Paddack	Cherry Bomb	+UR
76	Ryne Nelson	Cherry Bomb	+UR
77	Louie Varland	Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-21
78	Casey Mize	Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
79	Reynaldo López	Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
80	Garrett Crochet	Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
81	Cole Irvin T12	Toby	+UR
82	Michael Wacha	Toby	-1
83	Charlie Morton	Injury Risk Toby	+4
84	Seth Lugo	Toby	-2
85	Tyler Wells	Toby	+UR
86	José Urquidy	Toby	+UR
87	Michael Soroka	Toby	+UR
88	Brandon Pfaadt	Toby	-23
89	Clarke Schmidt	Toby	+UR
90	J.P. France	Toby	+UR
91	JP Sears T13	Cherry Bomb	+UR
92	Jordan Hicks	Cherry Bomb	-16
93	Trevor Rogers	Cherry Bomb	-4
94	Griffin Canning	Cherry Bomb	+UR
95	Kyle Harrison	Cherry Bomb	-
96	Joe Boyle	Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
97	Luis Severino	Cherry Bomb	-38
98	Tylor Megill	Cherry Bomb	+UR
99	Lance Lynn	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb	-5
100	Bowden Francis	Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR

 

Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)