With a few days of Spring Training games in the books, it’s time to take a look at which jobs are up for grabs and who has a shot at cracking the opening day roster. To spare you from reading the name of every starting pitcher in the AL, I’m only looking at pitchers on the cusp of breaking into or falling out of the rotation. Check out Nick’s SP Roundup to see the full projected starting rotation for each team. Here are the names you should be paying attention to as Spring Training progresses.
AL East
Toronto Blue Jays: Things look pretty well settled for the Jays with franchise players and new signees holding down most of the jobs across the infield and outfield. Third base belongs to Ernie Clement for now, but the 28-year-old sophomore will have to fend off Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger. Martinez was suspended for 80 games last year for PED use but returned for the final month of the year with his power seemingly intact. His 120 wRC+ in Triple-A with 17 homers in 74 games shows his upside if he finds playing time (and doesn’t miss the PEDs). Barger has a less exciting profile but put up a respectable .260 AVG with nine homers in 57 games at Triple-A last year. He played 69 MLB games with the Jays where his AVG fell to .197 and his homer count dipped to seven, but he found playing time at third and as a corner outfielder. He likely pencils in as more of a utility player, but if he finds his Triple-A form he’s worth a look. Daulton Varsho will be the go-to center-fielder for the Jays but his season start will be delayed due to shoulder surgery. Varsho is a defense-first player and there’s an opening for a better hitter to settle into his role even when he’s healthy. That better hitter isn’t Myles Straw, who is the favorite to open the season at center, but it may be Joey Loperfido – the two have split limited Spring Training starts at center so far. Loperfido isn’t a shoe-in by any means but his Triple-A performance last year was encouraging with a .933 OPS and 13 homers in 39 games. He struggled to adapt to MLB pitching in the 81 big league games he played, with his average falling from .272 to .214. His glove is solid and his bat has real potential, if he puts it together he may win the center fielder job outright.
Toronto has a clear 5-man rotation with two names looking in: Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss. It will likely take some injuries for them to unseat Max Scherzer or Chris Bassitt but they are the next guys up in case anything goes sideways. Two relievers stand out as early closer candidates: Jeff Hoffman and Chad Green. The former is coming off an excellent season with the Phillies where he tallied 10 saves while holding a pristine 2.17 ERA as more of a high leverage arm than a true closer. Green served as the Jays’ closer for most of 2024 where he racked up 17 saves with a 3.21 ERA. I’d give the edge to Hoffman but it’s a situation worth keeping an eye on.
Baltimore Orioles: The O’s bats haven’t been shaken up too much by their quiet offseason. Tyler O’Neill seems to be the preferred man in right which throws another hurdle to playing time in front of poor Heston Kjerstad. Kjerstad put up a stellar .986 OPS in the minors in 2024 but spent most of his time in the bigs coming off the bench. He has an uphill battle this spring if he wants to dethrone O’Neill or Colton Cowser for a spot in the outfield. The infield looks similarly crowded for Coby Mayo who put up a similarly sparkling .964 OPS across the minors last year. If Jackson Holliday really struggles to start off the year he may have a shot, but I’m willing to bet Baltimore sticks with Holliday even if it’s bumpy.
There may be a couple of slots in the Orioles rotation up for grabs to anybody who wants them. The incumbents at the back of the O’s rotation include Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, and Tomoyuki Sugano, who held respective 2024 ERAs of 4.19, 4.10, and 1.67 (playing for the NPB’s Yomiuri Giants, now home to Angels legend Trey Cabbage). Hopefuls include Cade Povich and Trevor Rogers; either of whom could earn a spot if they impress this preseason. Félix Bautista is a lock at closer and should be healthy by opening day.
Tampa Bay Rays: The core of the Rays lineup looks uncharacteristically static this year. There are clear favorites across the infield and the only question mark in the outfield is at center. Jonny DeLuca figures to be the favorite but Chandler Simpson has a shot at the job. Simpson had an absurd 104 steals in the minors last year with virtually no power to back it up – he hit just one homer. If you need an Esteury Ruiz on your team, Simpson might just be your man. To help address the dearth of dingers, Simpson could leave your fantasy team with, take a look at Jonathan Aranda. He hit a ton of ground balls last year, but he has real power hitter potential – hitting 25 into the stands in 95 games at Triple-A in 2023. His 2024 wasn’t quite as nice but if he puts on a clinic this spring training he might be someone worth chasing.
It’s safe to expect the Rays to do their usual thing in the bullpen and let Pete Fairbanks take most of the save opportunities and split the rest. Tampa’s rotation has six great starting pitcher candidates but their president of baseball operations says the Rays “don’t anticipate going to a six-man” rotation. All six options would serve them well so keep an eye on how things shake out before opening day, or, even better, keep an eye on The List so Nick can do it for you!
Boston Red Sox: The most tangled team so far, Boston has tied their infield into a knot by adding Alex Bregman to the mix. Both Bregman and Rafael Devers should be at third, but unless the Red Sox find an insane new method of cheating, that isn’t an option. Bregman shifting to second is complicated by the presence of Kristian Campbell who flew through the minors last year racking up 20 homers in 115 games with a .330 average and a .997 OPS. The outfield is crowded too, with a second elite prospect in Roman Anthony waiting in the wings, ready to duke it out with Ceddanne Rafaela for center. Masataka Yoshida is about to find his resident DH spot very crowded.
Boston’s rotation is easier to puzzle out. Though they have six good names and only five spots for them, it will likely boil down to whichever of Lucas Giolito and Walker Buehler can stay healthy. The closer role will be decided by the spring performances of Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman. Neither is a stranger to closing out games but there’s an outside chance that Justin Slaten will find himself in the mix if neither of the vets pan out.
New York Yankees: In stark contrast to their dear friends in Boston, the Yankees have just about every position sorted out. Third base is the only question mark: can DJ LeMahieu hang onto his job or will Oswaldo Cabrera or Oswald Peraza lock it down? With Paul Goldschmidt’s arrival, poor Ben Rice is out of a job after a great showing in the upper minors and an uninspiring stint in the majors last year. There’s no real path to playing time for him but he’ll be back at Yankee Stadium before too long.
The rotation is also neatly sorted in New York with Clarke Schmidt as the clear fifth man and known quantities Marcus Stroman and Carlos Carrasco as backups. The closing job is neatly sewn up by the freshly shaved Devin Williams. It’s hard to see much changing for the Yankees from today until opening day.
AL Central
Cleveland Guardians: Cleveland has plenty of great young players who look primed to fight for spots before opening day. Kyle Manzardo will challenge Carlos Santana at first base. Manzardo saw ups and downs in his first taste of the majors but he impressed in the playoffs and could lock down the job with a strong Spring Training. Second base will be manned by a carousel of utility players like Juan Brito and Angel Martínez until the first pick of the 2024 MLB draft, Travis Bazzana, is ready for the call. There’s an outside chance he tears it up at Spring Training and makes the opening day roster, but Cleveland might prefer he gets some time to cook in the minors – second base is his as soon as he’s ready. Right field seems to belong to Will Brennan for now, but sluggers Jhonkensy Noel and Johnathan Rodríguez have the raw power to win an everyday lineup spot in spite of their poor defensive value. Chase DeLauter might also be in the mix for right, he spent most of the last season on the IL, but he brings huge power and a great plate approach to the table if he can stay healthy.
There’s not much up in the air about the Guardians’ rotation. They have five solid players to hold down the fort until Shane Bieber is healthy but they look set in stone through Spring Training. There’s no mystery about Emmanuel Clase returning to his role as closer either.
Kansas City Royals: The Royals will be bringing back the gang from last season with a few small tweaks. Michael Massey seems to be the favorite at second base for now, with newcomer Jonathan India getting reps at third and left in Spring Training thus far. Not much else has changed on the Royals’ roster and they don’t have any prospects who scream “MLB ready.”
Kansas City’s rotation is top-heavy and the bottom two spots occupied by Michael Lorenzen and Kris Bubic could easily be taken by Alec Marsh or (to a lesser extent) Kyle Wright. The closer job is up for grabs: each of Carlos Estévez, Lucas Erceg, and Hunter Harvey put up double-digit saves last year – with Estévez seemingly the favorite based on salary alone.
Detroit Tigers: The Tigers have the potential to change things up substantially before opening day. Spencer Torkelson finds himself out of a job at first base and would need to seriously contest with Colt Keith if he wants it back. No one is really challenging Jace Jung for third, but he will need to improve upon an unimpressive debut in 2024. It’s unclear who the shortstop will be on opening day with newcomer Trey Sweeney and veteran Javier Báez both in the mix. Kerry Carpenter may take the opportunity to break out of his platoon if he can show improvement in hitting lefties. Even as a platoon bat, Carpenter managed an extremely impressive season, putting up an OPS of .932 and a wRC+ of 160 in 87 games. That puts him in Kyle Tucker and Juan Soto territory – definitely keep an eye on Carpenter finding his way to even more playing time.
The question marks in Detroit’s rotation are Jackson Jobe and Casey Mize, if either of them struggle, then Alex Cobb stands to take their place in the rotation. The closing job is a question for the Tigers with Beau Brieske and Jason Foley both vying for the role. Foley held the job for much of the last year but faltered down the stretch, eventually giving way to Brieske who made it look easy. Hopefully one or the other emerges as the clear closer before draft day.
Minnesota Twins: The battle for the ages to watch here is at first base between Ty France and Jose Miranda. This clash of the titans aside, second base will host a struggle between Brooks Lee and Edouard Julien. Lee seems to have the edge here but neither put up stellar numbers last year. Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach don’t seem to be in any danger of losing their starting jobs in the corner outfield but could give way to Emmanuel Rodriguez if he can manage to stay healthy and put some of his 1.026 OPS and nine homers in 47 games in the upper minors to use. Luke Keaschall is another name in the upper minors with an outside chance to make it onto the opening day roster, he could figure into the conversation at second or in the outfield.
Two spots are open at the tail end of Minnesota’s rotation, ready to be won by two of Simeon Woods Richardson, Chris Paddack, David Festa, or Zebby Matthews. There’s no doubt that Jhoan Duran will reprise his role as the Twins’ closer.
Chicago White Sox: Our first real catcher battle, Korey Lee has the job for now, but Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero both have a real shot to crack the roster. Colson Montgomery is Chicago’s shortstop of the future – but after a poor showing at Triple-A last year (.214 AVG, but with 18 homers) he will need to show that he’s ready. He’s 1-for-7 so far in Spring Training, but that one is a home run. Brooks Baldwin is in line to hold down shortstop if Montgomery falters and may find himself a home in the infield either way. He or Chase Meidroth could easily slot in at second or third (especially if Miguel Vargas fails to improve on his horrific 46 wRC+ 2024) or if the White Sox aren’t content with Lenyn Sosa or Josh Rojas as their default options. Mike Tauchman’s spot in right field could open up to Oscar Colás (89 wRC+ at Triple-A) or potentially Wilfred Veras (118 wRC+ at Double-A).
There could be plenty of movement at the bottom of Chicago’s rotation with the likes of Bryse Wilson, Drew Thorpe, Nick Nastrini, and Jairo Iriarte all scrambling for the fifth spot. If Noah Schultz really shines in Spring Training, he could shoot straight to the top of the rotation, but he could benefit from a bit more time in the minors. The closer job is wide, wide open, with early favorite Prelander Berroa now expected to miss opening day with an elbow sprain. Lefty Fraser Ellard and righty Gus Varland are the next guys up and could make for good late round saves targets.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels: The big story for the Angels infield is Christian Moore who had a scorching debut between A-ball and Double-A, slashing .347/.400/.584 with six home runs in just 25 games. We can expect him at second base this year, but he will have to carry some of that heat over into Spring Training if he wants to make it by opening day. Luis Rengifo will find time at second in Moore’s absence but will have to battle it out with Yoán Moncada for third if and when Moore makes the roster. Good thing there isn’t anybody else who wants to play baseball who could play third base. Zach Neto will miss opening day, giving Tim Anderson the chance to win himself a few starts but he won’t figure into the Halos plans long-term. With Mike Trout shifting into right, Jo Adell (0-for-9 in Spring Training) looks to be the favorite for center, though Mickey Moniak (1-for-10 in Spring Training) may give him a run for his money.
There is some room in the Angels’ rotation for movement with Kyle Hendricks and Reid Detmers the presumptive fourth and fifth starters. Looking in are Caden Dana, who rocked Double-A with a 2.52 ERA in 135.2 IP but got rocked in his brief MLB debut, and Jack Kochanowicz, who filled out the Angels’ rotation last year and put up a solid 3.99 ERA in 65.1 IP. Keep an eye on George Klassen and Sam Aldegheri too, both have struggled a bit with command in the minors but managed to rack up strikeouts and could take big steps forward. The signing of Kenley Jansen pours serious cold water on fireballer Ben Joyce’s chances at winning the closer job.
Houston Astros: Jose Altuve’s potential shift to left field is causing some chaos at second, where Brendan Rodgers could take over or Mauricio Dubón may settle in from his current role as utility man. If Altuve ends up at second, Dubón and Ben Gamel may be the pair to square off for the starting job in left, though Gamel seems to be the favorite, enabling Dubón to keep acting as roster glue. The battle of the Jake M.’s for center field between Jake Meyers and Jacob Melton could be settled this spring. Meyers held down center for Houston for 148 games last year but put together an uninspiring offensive season with a wRC+ of 86. Melton looks to be an offensive upgrade who put up 15 homers and 30 steals in the upper minors but may need to improve on his 23.5 K% if he wants to win the job this spring. Zach Dezenzo may force his way into the outfield picture as well, but he’ll need to show more of his upper minor form, where he slashed .299/.385/.492 for a wRC+ of 131 rather than his MLB self who struck out at a 33.8% clip and tumbled to a wRC+ of 84.
Houston is thin on starting pitching options and Hayden Wesneski is the fifth starter by default. He might fall to Luis García Jr. or Lance McCullers Jr. once they’re healthy but Wesneski is safe through the start of the season. Josh Hader has “closer” written all over him with no one to challenge him for the job.
Athletics: Tyler Soderstrom has already taken a few reps at catcher this spring and might earn himself eligibility there this season, further boosting his fantasy appeal. Soderstrom pencils in as the most likely everyday option for first base but 2024 draftee Nick Kurtz might take the job from him after a fantastic (albeit brief) pro debut, slashing .368/.520/.763 with four home runs in just 12 games across A and Double-A. Third base is wide open for the former Oakland team, veterans Gio Urshela and Luis Urías figure to fill in until Max Muncy (the other one) shows that he’s ready for the bigs. Darell Hernaiz could take the job at third instead after a solid season at Triple-A last year. Seth Brown and Miguel Andujar look to be the default options for left but keep an eye on Colby Thomas who hit 31 home runs with 15 steals in 132 games in Double-A and Triple-A while slashing .277/.342/.563.
The bottom of the Athletics’ rotation is up for grabs with Mitch Spence and Osvaldo Bido standing out as the favorites. Mason Barnett had a strong finish to his season at Double-A, putting up a 2.61 ERA in 41.1 IP after being traded from the Royals. J.T. Ginn and Joey Estes may have a leg up on Barnett having had a taste of the majors already. Breakout closer Mason Miller looks locked and loaded for an encore this year.
Seattle Mariners: Second base is Dylan Moore’s, but he could give way to Ryan Bliss who slashed .269/.377.456 with 12 homers in 93 games at Triple-A last year and followed it up with an adequate 101 wRC+ 33 game stint in the majors. Cole Young is indeed young at 21 years old, but he had a respectable 119 wRC+ season at Double-A last year and could figure into the equation at second or short.
The Mariners have the most secure 5-man rotation of any team in the AL. Emerson Hancock is the apparent #6 but he has next to no chance of fighting his way in this spring. Andrés Muñoz is under no pressure for the closing job.
Texas Rangers: There’s not much room for upstarts on the Rangers who are hoping to stay healthy after a down year. The 2023 champs have kept most of their core intact while adding Wyatt Langford and power bats Jake Burger and Joc Pederson to the mix. Texas is looking to compete and there’s no wiggle room in this lineup.
The rotation is a different story. Jon Gray was rumored to move into the closer role but that idea seems to have been abandoned. Gray, Cody Bradford, Tyler Mahle, and Kumar Rocker are all in line for the bottom three spots in the rotation, with Jack Leiter hoping to win a spot as well. Rocker has the highest upside of this group, keep an extra close eye on his progress this spring, even though his spot in the rotation is safe.
Glad to see Trey Cabbage getting some love. Here’s hoping the Angels figure it out some in 2025
A well thought out piece. Thanks for the insights.