Let’s get some basics out of the way regarding how to interpret these rankings. None of this stuff should come as any major surprise, but it never hurts to provide background:
- Randy Arozarena continues to take walks and steal some bases, which is great, but like many other players who make contact with pitches in the zone less than 80% of the time, he’s very streaky when it comes to power.
- As Corbin Carroll gets more acclimated to major league pitching, he finds more ways to get the ball in the air and to the pull field, which helps unlock his power potential. Assuming he continues to make adjustments, we could be looking at a 25 home run, 30 stolen base kind of season with good ratios. That’s a big assumption to make, of course, but it’s fun to see him develop and succeed.
TIER 5
- Trea Turner abused Tigers pitching the other night, but the real reason I’m optimistic about a possible climb to higher tiers is the correction to his zone contact rate. It’s still short of his 2021 and early 2022 baseline, but at least it’s moving up.
- Kyle Schwarber has been quite cold early in the season, but his bat is heating up with three home runs in his last three games. Schwarber tends to hit his home runs in bunches, and what you can see from the chart below is that he can sustain home run rates of one every three games or so for extended periods of time (he did it for over a whole month last season – June 17 through July 29). There are precious few players in the game who can hit that many balls out of the park, and it’s more than worth going through some of the bad times to get to the good times.
- Corey Seager has 25 RBI since he was reinstated from the IL on May 17, which leads the majors. He’s absolutely crushing the ball, too, with a 54.6% hard-hit rate on the season. Seager doesn’t run, but those 33 home runs from 2022 don’t seem like a fluke. Health is a sizable concern, but a healthy Seager is a fantasy force.
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- It’s great to see Ozzie Albies hit three home runs over his last five games and strike out just twice over his last 13, though the drop in the batting order is less great. Most concerning, though, is the complete evaporation of stolen bases — he has just five across 124 games since the start of 2022. He’s on pace to hit 30 home runs, which is awesome, but a neutral batting average and no speed limits his fantasy upside.
TIER 7
- Daulton Varsho has been fantasy’s best catcher over the last 15 days according to ESPN’s Player Rater. In his last 15 games, he has five home runs, 21 combined runs and RBI, and has struck out in just 8.1% of his plate appearances with a .271 batting average. Varsho hasn’t stolen many bases over that stretch (just one), but he’s still on pace to steal double-digit bags to go with the 30-home run power. Varsho should also be able to pile up over 80 runs and 80 RBI as part of the Blue Jays offense — numbers that most catchers can’t really dream of.
- Xander Bogaerts should have no issue surpassing his 15 home runs and eight steals from 2022, but it may not be by very much. I’m rather concerned about the lack of hard contact as well — he’s hitting over half of balls on the ground with just a 32.5% hard-hit rate. The high batting average Bogaerts should be bringing to the table won’t be there if he continues to hit so many grounders and making so much poor contact. This is not the rebound we hoped for, and I’m thinking he’s more likely to fall on this list than move up.
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- Nathaniel Lowe is hitting .282 and is on his way to 180 combined runs and RBI or more — that’s the good news. The news that’s less good is that he only has seven home runs so far, and two of those came in the last four days. 2022 might be a little fluky from a power perspective (Lowe hits a LOT of grounders, which makes it hard to pile up home runs), but even if he falls shy of 20 home runs, the ratios and counting stats make his floor feel like a top-75 player and top-ten first baseman.
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- There is a lot of green in this section, and while some of it is due to intentional jumps (J.D. Martinez, Luis Arraez, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.), the rest is due to minor shifts and other players taking a tumble.
- J.D. Martinez looks like a vintage version of himself since returning to action on May 12, and over his last 15 games he has an outstanding 10 home runs and 37 combined runs and RBI. He’s still striking out a bit more than he used to (27.7% in those 15 games), but just seeing the return of his power after just 16 home runs in 2022 gives me hope that J.D. can be a high-level hitter for the remainder of 2023.
TIER 10
- Vinnie Pasquantino hasn’t been a top-25 first baseman so far, though the underlying metrics suggest he’s still roughly the same hitter he was for 72 games in 2022. The plate discipline is still strong, and his expected stats are basically in-line with what he did last season. Luck has been one of the primary factors, as his BABIP is down over 50 points from last season despite his expected BABIP being just four points lower. That said, we haven’t really seen an uptick in home run power from Vinnie P, and I wouldn’t be counting on more than 20 when it’s all said and done. Good ratios and 20 home runs isn’t a bad thing (I mean, I just said it was all Nathaniel Lowe needed), but when it’s stuck on a miserable offense, it’s hard to move up much higher than he is right now.
- Wait, I’m featuring a player who didn’t change rankings? As it so happens, yes — but the fact he didn’t move is pretty meaningful when you consider that Josh Lowe is hitting .209/.222/.256 over his last 13 games with a 2.2% walk rate and a 28.9% strikeout rate. Why isn’t he moving down due to this slump? Because despite being in a slump, Josh Lowe is still contributing for fantasy managers thanks to five stolen bases in those 13 contests and the Rays continue to allow him to hit in the heart of their lineup. This stretch more-or-less represents Lowe’s floor, and yet he’s still finding ways to produce. He does sit against most lefties, sure, but the power and speed combination means Lowe can put up 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases even if he only plays 120 games. If Lowe is available in your leagues due to this slump, I’d see if a deal can be made.
- I called out Jonah Heim and Andrew Vaughn in previous iterations, and now look silly for doing so.
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- Ryan Mountcastle is driving in plenty of runners and hitting his fair share of home runs, but he’s been alarmingly bad against right-handed pitching (28% strikeout rate, .547 OPS). It’s been enough to be a top-12 to top-15 first baseman so far, but the batting average may not rebound as much as we’d like if he can’t find a way to get some better outcomes against same-sided pitching.
TIER 12
- Brandon Drury is on a hot streak, hitting .326/.396/.651 over his last 11 games. It’s unlikely that Drury will get close to the 28 home runs he hit last season, but 20-23 home runs is feasible with acceptable ratios and decent counting stats to go with his positional versatility.
- Esteury Ruiz is still running a lot, but a .180/.231/.213 line over his last 15 games with just five runs scored and three RBI, it’s worth wondering if the speed is always worth it in shallower leagues — especially when it’s head-to-head categories. If I had a comfortable lead in steals for the week, I’d consider benching him for someone with a stronger bat until Ruiz turns it around a little.
- Carlos Correa was slumping and now he’s dealing with health issues (which may not be a surprise to most of you). This could get ugly in a hurry.
- MJ Melendez is showing impressive plate discipline of late, with a 15.6% walk rate and 20% strikeout rate over his last 11 games. The home run pop isn’t quite there so far in 2023, but I still think he could get close to 20 home runs with better ratios than he had last season (which isn’t that high of a bar). That’s enough for Melendez to be considered a locked-in catcher for 2023 and beyond for fantasy purposes.
- Tim Anderson isn’t hitting home runs nor is he stealing bases, so it’s mostly just empty batting average right now.
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- Moving Taylor Ward up feels good. He continues to hit first or fourth, and he’s on a seven-game hitting streak where he’s hit three home runs while slashing .367/.387/.700. I still believe in the talent.
- Spencer Steer has been outstanding for the Reds of late. Coming into the season, I thought Steer was someone who’d be interesting in deep leagues due to having a full-time role and 20-home run power, but what he’s showing is making me reevaluate what the ceiling for Steer looks like.
- Welcome back to the list, Jake McCarthy. He’s playing every day and running wild, which are the two things I wanted to see after he was called up from triple-A. What McCarthy accomplished in 2022 was a massive surprise, so it’s hard to know what to expect going forward and the floor is extremely low, but the ceiling is also a top-60 player.
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- Kris Bryant and Brandon Lowe are pretty close to droppable at this point, especially if you don’t have a deep IL in your league. They both still have potentially high ceilings, but those ceilings seem really out of reach right now.
- Ezequiel Duran returned from the IL and is finding plenty of playing time, which was my chief concern. If he’s playing, he’s probably worth starting.
TIER 15
- Nolan Jones was crushing the ball in the minor leagues, so I’m glad he’s up for the Rockies. I’m interested to see how he handles the upcoming road trip. Jones was once a touted prospect, but strikeout issues pushed him down a lot of lists.
- Elly De La Cruz is up and has supreme talent in a volatile profile. Watch the strikeout rate – it’ll help us understand how quickly he catches on.
- I don’t know what it would take (apart from a demotion) to have Anthony Volpe or Michael Harris II fall off the list entirely, but it’s becoming more and more of a realistic possibility.
- I want to give Anthony Rendon a little bit of time to show he could still be the old Anthony Rendon, but in shallow leagues I don’t think I’d wait very long if an interesting player was on the wire.
- Jordan Walker gets another chance, which is all we ever asked for.
- A back injury and a lack of production are a scary mix for a guy like Lars Nootbaar, especially when a top prospect who can play the outfield has been called up in his absence.
And now, once again, it’s time for the Hitter List:
And here’s the Taxi Squad, presented in no particular order:
Taxi Squad
No Elly?
Whoopsie! He’s there in the last tier now. I had just forgotten to add him to my table.
Love the upside, worried about making consistent contact and what his role looks like if he slumps and Senzel returns.
that McCutchen guy isnt bad. Think he could get a shout towards the bottom of the list?
I could probably have Cutch and/or Raley on the Taxi Squad, I suppose. Cutch hasn’t given us much power lately—just 3 XBH in his last 21 games (including today), and empty ratios aren’t worth a ton when you’re a Pirate. The upside is pretty limited too, but he’s more than acceptable as an OF5 in 12 and 15-team formats that use that many OFs.
I still struggle to get a feel for Raley. Came out of nowhere red hot with lots of power, then was really cold and striking out constantly, now he’s heated up again with some power and tons of steals. Over the last 3 days they’ve finally moved him out of the bottom of the order, but he’s sat for consecutive games a lot this season. If that’s changed AND he’s going to hit higher in the order with Lowe on the IL, then he could easily make the list.
or luke raley for that matter?!
What justifies Luis Robert’s position as a top 25 hitter in fantasy baseball? It’s getting silly.
He’s well into his career at this point and he’s never sniffed that level of production for and sample size of note.
There are easily 70 hitters I would move him for, but nobody in my league wants him. I’ll be dropping this week.
According to the FG Auction Calculator, Luis Robert has been Hitter #36 on the season despite his early slump. Robert has an insane amount of talent and is currently healthy, which means production is going to come, even if it’s in bunches instead of a steady flow.
Why the steep drop for Renfroe? His week wasn’t terrible.
That was probably a bit of an overcorrection (I moved him to just under Taylor Ward, so it gave him back about 10 spots), but the power has dipped considerably – 1 HR and 11 R+RBI over his last 22 games. He’s also recently been dropped in the order. Some of the power is likely to come back, but he was already struggling with counting stats before the move down in the lineup, so that’s concerning as well. The strikeout rate is still fine, though.
I’m not sure what to do with Ian Happ (84). He’s been awfully disappointing this month and many times I have been subbing him with Randal Grichuk (UR). Do I have a bad read on these two? Is Happ significantly better than Grichuk?
We covered Grichuk a little on Monday’s Hacks & Jacks, but in short, I have no faith in Grichuk. He’s fine at home or in 2-3 week spurts, then fizzles out into a guy who should be on the wire.
Happ has a higher ceiling and floor ROS, though the slump has been awfully annoying.
When Adam Duvall returns this weekend, do you anticipate him to be on next week’s taxi squad, or does he have to prove his start of the year wasn’t a fluke?
He’ll probably just jump right to the List itself in the back end. I just want to make sure he’s not cold out of the gate—Duvall tends to be the kind of player who oscillates between super helpful and not roster-worthy based on whether he’s hot or cold. Health has also been an issue for quite some time now, and it’s not as though it’s less of a concern right now.
Curious, who are you acquiring with this drop? I also roster Robert, he’s definitely cooled off from his torrid May stretch but I still find him a solid hitter with baserunning ability
What’re your thoughts on JD Martinez vs Giancarlo ROS? I see the rankings – how do you think the rest of season plays out? I keep getting offered JD, and he’s starting to change my mind!
I’ll take JD on all stats ROS except for maybe HRs, in large part because I think he’ll just play in a lot more games than Giancarlo. If they played in even number of games, it’d probably be a toss-up for me. Giancarlo has the pure power, but it can come with disappointing ratios. JD’s power may not last, but he should always get counting stats and ratios.
No mention that Xander is playing with a bad wrist? He was red hot before the injury.
It’s a good call out, but he’s trying to play through it (which likely won’t help the production). I’m still torn on how to feel about injuries guys play through – it’s a useful narrative, but it’s impossible to know when they’ll feel better.
give me hope for kelenic?
looking like a drop in 12 tm mixed h2h…no?
lost cf judge, now kelenic, ward?
thx great job we all enjoy it.
Kelenic is going to be a guy with big ups and downs until he fully adapts to the big leagues, I think. There’s hope ahead – he’s a talented guy who has shown he can hit – but he may be frustrating for managers in the short term.
Are we holding Machado due to pedigree or are we actually convinced he can turn it around? I’m not sure how to evaluate good hitters but man… that statcast page is so grim.
The Statcast page just reaffirms that he’s been bad – it’s not necessarily predictive. Statcast is most easily used to gauge whether a player is getting lucky or not.
I’m willing to give Machado a little bit more time now that he’s back from injury. Specifically, I want to see the power. We’ve seen extended slumps from him before only for him to come back strong, so I’m willing to bet on track record for now.
Hi Scott,
Always appreciate the list, thank you for your work!
Miguel Vargas finally hit another one out tonight, do you see anything to indicate he’s heating up? I’m looking for some pop and a decent floor in a deeper categories league OBP (lost Greene, Bryant, J Lowe and now Renfroe to Paternity List).
Debating between Vargas, Nick Pratto (like what I see on rolling chats), Jesus Sanchez seems red hot, Rooker (again – is he coming out of the funk), and Noda who appears to be on a heater. Gabbed Brendan Donovan for a floor option to replace B Lowe and Kiriloff. Wouldn’t mind some power to compliment their floors. Do you like Sanchez, Pratto, Vargas or Rooker as a compliment.
Thanks!!!
I don’t love seeing Vargas hitting 7/8, though he’s been better with doing damage when he makes contact lately. I like his upside longterm, but am less certain about him right now.
That said, I probably prefer him to all of the options listed. I guess Rooker has the most raw power but he’s hard to trust due to his inability to make consistent contact. Vargas is on the best offense of that group by a wide margin and also is the one with the highest floor.
Thank you very much
Are you sure those aren’t projections? There’s a lot of funkiness to that list, it doesn’t seem to match YTD production.
Yes – you just have to change it from Steamer projections (the default) to 2023 YTD.
I like your strategy for Estuery in leagues with daily lineup changes.
In leagues with weekly changes he’s still a locked in starter IMO.
In a daily league I have L Raley & H Ramirez which has been a very sneaky strategy. When one sits, one starts. I always have a TB bat, and some days two. It has been very productive. TB has got something figured out when it comes to reserve bats or part time players.