Whether it’s early in the season, the middle of July, or late in the year, it’s always good to know where you stand in your Roto league.
Of course, perusing your league’s standings accomplishes that fairly quickly. However, numbers can often be misleading. Is your team producing at the level it should be as a league leader compared to the vast majority of other Roto leagues?
Are there underperforming players on your team, or available via waivers each week that could help you significantly in specific, or multiple, categories moving forward? This column aims to, and will, answer all those questions on a weekly basis, regardless of league size.
Essentially, it’s an almanac for Roto leagues and NFBC or TGFBI leagues, showing you not only the watermarks your team should be hitting category-wise to be truly elite but also the specific players that will help you get there. What’s more, it’ll also cover the top performers in each category, as well as some under-the-radar options for each metric as well.
Notes
A couple of quick notes before we begin. For metrics like ERA, WHIP, batting average, and on-base percentage, only qualified or close to qualified pitchers and hitters (respectively) were considered, especially at this time of year with smaller sample sizes running rampant.
Additionally, all rostered rate numbers are via FantasyPros as of Monday. Furthermore, in part due to NFBC leagues, all stats (as well as the rostered data) are via the previous week’s Sunday.
All the data in terms of Roto league production is from last year’s numbers.
Where You Should Be Producing In Each Category
Below is data for both 15-team and 12-team Roto leagues from last season and the average statistical totals that each placed team finished with. This is for the entirety of a season. Basically, if you want to do well in these two formats, these are the season-long watermarks to shoot for.
There’s also SGP data for both 15-team and 12-team formats.
Before we get any further, a massive thank you to Pitcher List Director of Data Analytics and Research Kyle Bland for getting a hold of the data.
And now, without further ado, the 15-team data, which comes from 2023 TGFBI leagues:
15-Team Leagues
(Quick reminder, the far left-hand column is where the team finished in the standings.)
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And here’s the 15-team, SGP data:
12-Team Leagues
And now for the 12-team, SGP data:
Category Power Rankings
Batting Average (AVG)
Leaders
Of Note: Trea Turner.
Turner has hit at least 19 home runs with 100 or more runs scored and a minimum of 27 stolen bases in four of the last five seasons. And while he’s unlikely to reach those numbers again in 2024, due largely to a stint on the injured list because of a hamstring strain, Turner has once again been an elite fantasy hitter when in the lineup for the Phillies, hitting .299 with a .343 on-base percentage, 15 home runs, and 14 stolen bases as of the beginning of play on Monday. His 123 wRC+ in that span is right in line with the 128 number he posted in his last season with the Dodgers.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Kerry Carpenter.
Carpenter has been on a tear at the plate since returning from a stint on the injured list due to a lumbar spine stress fracture, hitting .286 with a .365 on-base percentage, six home runs, 10 runs scored, 16 RBI, and a .339 ISO in 64 plate appearances since August 13.
Even if he continues to sit at times against left-handed pitching, the slugger looks like a potential league winner for fantasy managers in leagues with 12 or more teams.
On-Base Percentage (OBP)
Leaders
Of Note: Brent Rooker.
Rooker continues to thrive at the plate for the A’s, hitting .292 with a .372 on-base percentage, a 167 wRC+, 33 home runs, and eight stolen bases in 504 plate appearances as of the start of play on Monday.
The home runs in particular have been key in establishing the slugger as a top-25 overall fantasy player.
He’s likely going to continue to hit home runs, regardless of the opponent, but it is worth noting that the A’s remaining schedule is a bit of a mixed bag in terms of teams giving up home runs.
On one hand, the A’s have six total games left against the White Sox and Rangers, two teams with the third and fifth-highest HR/9 rate in the league.
By the same token, Oakland also has six combined games against the Tigers (who have the fourth-lowest HR/9 in the league) and the Astros (who have the 11th-lowest HR/9 rate in baseball).
Fantasy managers should still start Rooker with confidence in all fantasy formats, but keep those matchups in mind in terms of expectations.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Josh Smith.
Smith has enjoyed a quality season, hitting .266 with a .352 on-base percentage, 12 home runs, and eight stolen bases, not to mention a 118 wRC+, in his first 494 plate appearances.
And while he’s continuing to hit mainly in the top third of the Rangers’ lineup since June 18, the 27-year-old is batting just .232 with a .303 on-base percentage, an 85 wRC+, five home runs, and four stolen bases in 198 plate appearances since July 1. With his versatility and ability to chip in with home runs and stolen bases, the 27-year-old is certainly worth a look in deeper fantasy formats. And while hitting in the top third of the Rangers’ lineup should continue to present him with plenty of RBI chances, his recent form at the plate limits his fantasy ceiling moving forward.
Home Runs (HR)
Leaders
Of Note: Anthony Santander.
Santander has been mentioned in this column before as one of the more unlucky hitters in the league based on BABIP and batted ball data. He’s arguably been the unluckiest.
Could that BABIP fortune be in the process of evening out?
Potentially.
Santander ended last week with eight hits in his last 22 plate appearances, including three multi-hit efforts. It’s a potentially significant development for fantasy managers for the stretch run if Santander’s production continues at even something closely resembling this.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Mark Vientos.
Want to know a fun fact?
Mark Vientos made his 2024 Mets debut on April 27.
Since then, he’s logged 355 plate appearances for the National League East club, hitting .282 with a .338 on-base percentage, 21 home runs, and a 144 wRC+.
Okay, so none of those were the fun fact. Though all are fairly impressive and notable in a vacuum.
The fun fact is that among qualified hitters, just 15 had a higher wRC+ than Vientos.
Switching focus to ISO, Vientos’ is .257 this season. For context, just 13 qualified batters have a better ISO than Vientos.
Here’s a moderately lengthy list of players with both a lower ISO and wRC+ than the Mets infielder during that span:
Jackson Merrill, Freddie Freeman, Riley Greene, Austin Riley, Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor, Manny Machado, Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber, and Jurickson Profar.
Runs Scored (R)
Leaders
Of Note: Elly De La Cruz.
The lone new name on the list this week, De La Cruz, as it happens, has been decidedly more productive on the road this season despite Great American Ballpark being a venerable launching pad of a home stadium.
The infielder is batting .279 with a .867 OPS, a .233 ISO, and a 137 wRC+ on the road this season, compared to a .247 average, a .776 OPS, a .198 ISO, and a 106 wRC+ at home.
Looking ahead, the Reds play their next 10 straight games on the road, and 15 of their last 21 contests on the road.
Strong fantasy production awaits.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Colton Cowser.
Cowser isn’t hitting leadoff regularly for the Orioles as he was only last week. However, he’s mostly hit fifth since then for the American League East club this season.
And while that trend, should it continue, lowers his fantasy ceiling just a bit, the strength of the Orioles’ lineup and the quality of contact numbers the outfielder has posted this year give him extremely high fantasy upside.
Cowser still ranks in the 80th percentile or better in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate, with an xwOBA above-league average.
RBI
Leaders
Of Note: Josh Naylor.
Naylor, similar to Santander, has been mentioned in this column as a candidate for positive regression, what with a .247 BABIP in 540 plate appearances this season.
Similar to Santander, his surface-level production (and overall production) has improved considerably as of late.
Naylor is hitting .324 with a .410 on-base percentage, a home run, and more walks (four) than strikeouts (two) in his last 39 plate appearances.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Eugenio Suárez.
That there’s such a sizeable gap between Suarez’s RBI total and the rest of the list here is notable, though perhaps more notable still is the third baseman’s reasonably low rostered rate.
A rostered rate that probably should be much higher considering how impactful the third baseman has been as of late.
Since June 1, the veteran is batting .257 with a .328 on-base percentage, a 130 wRC+, 18 home runs, and a .264 ISO in 314 plate appearances.
If you’re overly familiar with splits starting June 1 onwards, it probably looks a bit familiar to some other notable fantasy sluggers during that span.
Stolen Bases (SB)
Leaders
Of Note: Lane Thomas.
After hitting .253 with a .331 on-base percentage, eight home runs, and 28 stolen bases in 341 plate appearances for the Washington Nationals earlier this season, Thomas has struggled mightily since donning a Guardians uniform, batting just .176 with a .260 on-base percentage, a 37.5% strikeout rate and a 43 wRC+ in 96 plate appearances. He’s stolen three bases during that span, but it’s been an unideal run of form at the plate for the outfielder.
Fantasy managers in deeper leagues can probably look elsewhere for streaming options across the outfield.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Pete-Crow Armstrong.
The 22-year-old has thrived at the plate as of late, hitting .327 with a .376 on-base percentage, a .206 ISO, a 149 wRC+, four home runs, and eight stolen bases in his last 119 plate appearances, all the while striking out just 15.1% of the time.
He’s still hitting toward the bottom of the Cubs lineup, but given his recent form at the plate and ability to steal bases at a high rate, the outfielder needs to be rostered in most fantasy formats.
Though if he can hit further up the lineup on a regular basis Crow-Armstrong could be a league winner.
Pitchers
Strikeouts (K)
Leaders
Of Note: Michael King.
Ranking in the 70th percentile or better in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate, King shouldn’t have any problems missing bats the rest of the way. After all, he does rank in the top 10 in total strikeouts so far.
But his upcoming starts are particularly fantasy-friendly in the short term.
Assuming the Padres’ rotation continues as is without any interruptions, the 29-year-old King will start each of his next two games against the San Francisco Giants, a team with the 10th-highest strikeout rate in the league with a collective 23.4% number.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
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Of Note: MacKenzie Gore.
Through July 1 of this season, MacKenzie Gore looked like a potential borderline top-25 fantasy starter, what with 107 strikeouts compared to just 29 walks and seven home runs allowed in 90.2 innings, not to mention a 3.47 ERA and a 3.02 FIP. There were also the six pitcher wins in 17 starts.
Then a five-start stretch happened and things, or rather, Gore’s numbers weren’t as great. A 6.48 ERA and a 5.51 FIP in five starts spanning 25 innings followed. Gore struck out just 18 batters during that span while surrendering 13 walks and four home runs.
The stretch had a lot to do with Gore’s rostered rate falling this low to the point where he qualified for this particular leaderboard.
However, he’s been much better lately, throwing a combined 12 innings against Atlanta (on the road) and the Yankees and holding both teams to a cumulative three earned runs.
He’s worth a look in most fantasy formats moving forward.
ERA
Leaders
Of Note: Framber Valdez.
Valdez has been elite at limiting barrels and inducing ground balls this season, logging just a 4.5% barrel rate and a 60.4% ground ball rate. Both metrics rank in the 90th percentile or better league-wide and have been instrumental in the veteran once again sporting double-digit pitcher wins and an ERA below the 3.50 mark. In fact, if the season were to end today, his 3.25 FIP would be a new career low.
He’s locked in as a top-25 fantasy starter the rest of the way.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Albert Suarez.
Suarez entered play this week having limited the Rockies to just eight hits and a pair of earned runs in seven innings at Coors Field while striking out four.
It marked the sixth straight start in which he’d allowed three runs or fewer. Dating back to July 28, a stretch which included allowing nine hits and three earned runs in a 1.2-inning relief outing, Suarez had pitched to a 2.45 ERA and a 3.51 FIP in 36.2 innings.
His 6.63 strikeouts per nine innings during that stretch don’t exactly jump off the page, but with a pair of pitcher wins during that stretch and a spot in Baltimore’s rotation, Suarez looks like a quality long-term streaming option in deeper leagues for the rest of the season.
His remaining slate of starts (assuming Baltimore’s rotation stays on turn without any interruptions) is a bit of a mixed bag, with starts at Boston and Minnesota and home outings against the Giants and Tigers, but it’s not the worst slate of potential starts on paper.
Add him and start him in fantasy leagues with 14 or more teams.
Wins (W)
Leaders
Of Note: Carlos Rodón.
Rodon has been excellent at missing bats this season, sitting in the 70th percentile or better in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate this season.
And while the Yankees’ lineup has helped him accumulate plenty of pitching wins, he’s also allowing opposing batters to log a 9.9% barrel rate and a 41.3% hard-hit rate against him.
It’s something to keep in mind for the rest of the season, especially considering the Yankees have remaining three-game series against the A’s, Orioles, and Red Sox, all teams who rank in the top third of the league in barrel rate this season.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Tyler Anderson.
After allowing more than three earned runs in a start just three times in his first 23 starts, Anderson has now given up four or more runs in three of his last four outings.
With just 6.93 strikeouts per nine innings and a 4.62 FIP (compared to a 3.55 ERA), this might be the statistical regression settling in. It also doesn’t help that the Angels recently lost 10 of 11 games (though they did follow that up by winning three of four). Still, with a 57-80 record to start the week, the Halos don’t look likely to provide Anderson with a significant number of pitcher-win chances, which limits his fantasy ceiling moving forward.
Quality Starts (QS)
Leaders
Of Note: Corbin Burnes.
Fantasy managers probably aren’t taking Corbin Burnes out of fantasy lineups because, well it’s Corbin Burnes and he’s very good at throwing a baseball. But it’s worth noting that he’s allowed six runs or more in three straight starts entering the week (one start featured six runs and one earned run, for reference).
The Orioles’ ace should have a much easier time of things, at least on paper, as his next scheduled start is set to come against a Rays team that ranks in the bottom third of the league in runs scored, on-base percentage, and ISO.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Austin Gomber.
Entering play this week, Gomber had allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last six outings, logging at least six innings in each of those outings.
And while it’s certainly been an encouraging stretch for a hurler with a 4.69 ERA and a 4.98 FIP in 144 innings this season, the left-hander’s upcoming schedule is anything but encouraging from a fantasy standpoint.
Assuming the Rockies’ rotation continues as is without any interruptions, Gomber’s next three starts (after a Thursday matchup with Atlanta) will come away to a surging Tigers team and then three successive matchups with a pair of National League West foes in Arizona (at home) and Los Angeles (on the road, then at home).
Fantasy managers in deeper leagues are probably best off looking elsewhere for rest-of-season rotation options.
Saves (SV)
Leaders
Of Note: Kenley Jansen.
Jansen continues to see regular save chances for the Red Sox, though it’s worth noting he’s allowed an earned run in three of his last five outings entering play this week.
With that being said Chase Anderson is the only other Red Sox reliever with more than two saves this year, and all three were of the three-inning variety. Two of Anderson’s three saves came before April 8.
Speculatively speaking, this seems like a situation where Jansen continues to pitch in the ninth inning, but it’s something to keep an eye on for fantasy managers moving forward.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Jason Foley.
Foley has struggled at times this season, but he’s been excellent as of late for the Tigers. Entering play on Monday, the veteran had yet to give up an earned run in 10 innings since August 4, recording five saves and two holds in the process.
Left-hander Tyler Holton, with two, is the only other Tigers relief pitcher with a save during that span. Holton could continue to see some save chances if the matchups line up better for the southpaw, but for now, Foley looks likely to see the bulk of the save chances for Detroit.
That alone makes him a player whose rostered rate should be significantly higher, but considering Detroit has won 16 of 21 entering play this week, Foley needs to be added to fantasy rosters, regardless of league size or format.
WHIP
Leaders
Of Note: Bailey Ober.
Ober has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 13 starts and should likely continue to do so, but proceed with caution in his next outing. It’s scheduled to be against the Kansas City Royals on Saturday.
There are four times in Ober’s 83 career starts when he has allowed six earned runs or more.
Three of those four times came against the Kansas City Royals.
It might be wise for fantasy managers to not start him for that one.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Osvaldo Bido.
Bido has enjoyed a quality breakout season for the Oakland A’s so far, pitching to a 3.21 ERA and a 3.31 FIP in his first 56 innings thanks in part to his ability to limit barrels and hard contact at an elite rate.
During his first 56 innings, the right-hander had allowed just four barrels (good for a minuscule 2.8% barrel rate) while limiting opposing batters to just a 25.5% hard-hit rate.
Assuming Oakland’s rotation continues as is for the rest of the season, Bido will see upcoming starts against the Tigers (at home), White Sox (on the road), Cubs (on the road), and Rangers (at home).
Entering play this week, the White Sox and Rangers ranked in the bottom 10 in the league in barrel rate, while the White Sox and Tigers ranked in the bottom third of the league in hard-hit rate.