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Out% – A Year in Review and A Look Ahead

Taylor Tarter reviews the Out% data from 2024 and looks ahead to 2025

Taylor Tarter
Going Deep 4 Hours Ago

Around this time in 2024, I wrote an article titled What is Out%? that introduced a new statistic developed by Brett Hammit, Kyle Bland, Nick Pollack, Colin Charles, and I. The goal was to discover which pitchers’ pitches are the best at inducing outs.

Today, the goal is twofold:

  1. Find out what trends there are between last season’s data and this season’s data.
  2. Look ahead to how we can use the data in 2025 for fantasy purposes and otherwise.

This was the formula that we used to collect our data:

(Pitches resulting in outs) / (Total pitches)

We used this formula to create an average Out Rate or Out% for each pitch, that way, we could measure each pitcher’s pitch against the league average. Here is our final Out% Google Sheet from last season.

And here is the final data collected from last season for each pitch type’s league average Out%:

  • Splitter (FS) = 21.7% (up .2% from the end of the 2023 season)
  • Changeup (CH) = 19.4% (exact same as the end of 2023)
  • Sweeper (ST) = 18.7% (down .3% from the end of 2023)
  • Slider (SL) = 18.3% (up .3% from the end of 2023)
  • Sinker (SI) = 17.8% (up .7% from the end of 2023)
  • Curveball (CU) = 16.8% (down .2% from the end of 2023)
  • Cutter (FC) = 16.3% (down .4% from the end of 2023)
  • Fastball (FF) = 16.5% (up .8% from the end of 2023)

 

What Do These Changes Mean?

 

One of the things we discovered from last season is that Out% is not a “sticky” stat, meaning that what a pitcher produces in one season could be wildly different from what they do in the next. The R-squared from 2022-2023 was .003, and the R-squared from 2023-2024 was .004:

For stats to be consistent from year to year, the R-squared would need to be farther from zero, so because these are so close to zero, there is little consistency.

Despite that, this statistic still has immense fantasy and real life implications, especially considering the trends from last season to this one.

The Out Rate on splitters, sliders, sinkers, and fastballs all increased from 2023 to 2024. Splitter usage went up significantly (by 4,000 pitches) from 2023 to 2024, with 17 more pitchers throwing splitters last season than in 2023. This also resulted in the quality of splitters increasing, which is potentially a trend that we could see continue into 2025.

Slider, sinker, and fastball usage all decreased, but their quality increased in terms of Out%, which could be due to a number of factors. Those factors could have to do with pitch sequencing, pitchers changing grips, pitchers adding spin, adjusting arm slot, changing their pitch mix, etc. So it is hard to tell exactly why those particular pitches improved in Out% while the others stayed the same or decreased without looking into each individual pitcher’s individual pitches.

One trend to note from year to year is that fastballs and cutters consistently have the lowest Out% compared to the breaking and offspeed pitches. This is because fastballs and cutters are used more as set-up pitches, and are typically used earlier in the count, rather than later in the count to get batters out. Also, many relievers rank atop the fastball Out% leaderboard because they only throw fastballs and one or two other pitches.

Nearly every week last season, the pitchers with the best fastball Out% overwhelmingly ranked above league average with ERA. Among the 66 pitchers who threw a league average amount of fastballs last season while also posting above league average Out%, 40 of them had an ERA above league average as well. Of those 40 pitchers, 29 of them had at least one other pitch that was above league average in Out%.

Below is the overall pitch distribution from last season:

The Out Rate runs along the bottom of the graph. Accordingly, some pitches of note include Logan Gilbert’s splitter, Logan Webb’s changeup, Eduardo Rodriguez’s sinker, and Sonny Gray’s sweeper.

Compare that to the pitch distribution from 2024:

Sonny Gray, far and away, had the most effective out pitch in 2024 in his sweeper. He induced outs on that pitch 32% of the time he threw it. Knowing that helps legitimize his two strikeout-per-nine increase from 2023 to 2024, while also giving credence to his xFIP and SIERA being closer to his true talent than his 3.84 ERA from last season.

The real life implications for Gray are that he should be throwing his sweeper and sinker much more frequently, and should be throwing his other pitches much less since they are much less effective. Aside from his sweeper, his sinker Out% increased by 7%, while his curveball, fastball, and cutter Out Rates all decreased. The more heavily he leans on his best out pitches, the better he should perform.

This is true of most pitchers with elite breaking and offspeed offerings – the more they throw them, the higher Out Rates they earn. In turn, that should result in better performance. Take a look at the individual pitch breakdown from 2023:

In 2023, 31 pitchers threw a sweeper at least 350 times, with 20 of them owning an Out% above league average for sweepers. This means 64% of the pitchers throwing the highest volume of sweepers end up with an above average Out Rate on that pitch.

Compare that to the 25 pitchers who threw fewer than 350 sweepers, and the 13 of them whose Out% was above league average.

Here is the individual pitch breakdown for 2024:

Last season, 38 pitchers tossed a sweeper at least 350 times, with 18 of them putting up an Out% above league average – 47% of players. Of the 48 pitchers who threw a sweeper fewer than 350 times, 20 of them had an Out% above league average – 41% of players. While the ratios both decreased from 2023, what is consistent is that high quality pitches that are thrown often end up producing better Out Rates.

This does not mean just anyone with a sweeper should go throwing it all the time. It needs to be an elite sweeper for this to play out. Someone like Brandon Pfaadt, who threw the second most sweepers overall and owned a 22% Out Rate on it, should continue throwing his sweeper at a high rate because it is so good:

On the other hand, someone like JP Sears could benefit from throwing his sweeper less. He threw the third most sweepers overall, but had just a 17.5% Out Rate. His fastball and sinker were league average or better, and he would be better off leaning on those to get batters out in 2025, unless he makes major adjustments.

Another trend to consider is simply the Out% leaderboards. Are there any pitchers topping the lists from year to year?

 

Out% Leaders

 

Here was the final leaderboard after the 2023 season including the average Out% for the pitch and the pitcher’s Out% on their pitch:

Here is the final leaderboard after the 2024 season, based on the league average amount of pitches thrown for each pitch type:

While there is quite a bit of turnover in the leaderboards from year to year, Blake Snell’s curveball and Sonny Gray’s sweeper remain two of the best out pitches in the league.

Here is how Snell’s curve looked according to our PLV data last season:

And here it is from last season

By many metrics, including PLV and Out%, Snell’s curveball has been remarkably consistent. His PLV on it actually improved from ’23 to ’24.

Last season, he excelled at fooling batters, inducing a 56% whiff rate and a 33% putaway rate. This season, he posted a 47% whiff rate and a 30% putaway rate.

Part of his success on fooling batters comes thanks to his near-elite extension, which makes up where his break lacks slightly.

Another leader from 2023 was Sonny Gray’s sweeper. Here is how that looked according to PLV:

And here it is from 2024:

Despite his sweeper PLV dropping slightly, it still nearly ranks as a quality pitch. He lost a little velocity from ’23 to ’24, but improved his extension and induced vertical break (iVB). On top of that, Gray continued to rank among the best in vertical drop on sweepers for the second year in a row.

Last season, his 7.3 inches of vertical drop compared to similar pitches ranked second best, and he ranked top-20 in inches of vertical drop overall.

That movement led to a ton of whiffs, strikeouts, and outs. Gray posted a 44% whiff rate, a 57% strikeout rate, and a 27% putaway rate, all of which ranked top-10 among pitchers who tossed a sweeper in at least 50 plate appearances.

As far as the other pitchers atop the leaderboard from 2024, here is how their pitches fared according to our PLV data.

Bowden Francis threw his fastball over 50% of the time, by far his most used pitch. It was extremely effective at getting batters out despite ranking in the middle of the pack in whiff, strikeout, and putaway rate (among pitchers who threw a fastball in at least 150 PAs). Here is how it looked according to PLV data:

Francis made up for his lackluster velocity with near-elite extension, a ton of induced vertical break, and excellent location. Some adjustments towards the end of last season, including throwing it for more strikes and changing up his pitch mix, led to his fastball becoming more effective.

While Out% may not be a “sticky” stat, this is something that fantasy managers can watch early in the season to see if this trend continues for Francis. He also tossed a splitter which had an Out% above league average. If Francis can maintain both an elite splitter and fastball, he should be able to repeat his performance and outperform his projections – especially if he can add one more out pitch.

Emmanuel Clase could end up at the top of the cutter Out% leaderboard at the end of this season again, considering how good his cutter was in 2024.

Clase posted an absurd 5.67 PLV, which is a Quality Pitch. His cutter was nearly unhittable last season, with batters getting a hit just 28 times in the 765 times he threw hit, for a .150 batting average against. Among pitchers who threw a cutter in at least 100 PAs last season, Clase ranked second in BAA, 18th in whiff rate, 12th in strikeout rate, and 15th in putaway rate.

What makes Clase’s cutter so filthy is the induced vertical break, essentially the ball’s rise. The 11.5 inches of iVB on it ranks tied for fourth highest among pitchers who threw at least 500 cutters last season.

Clase actually averaged a higher velocity in 2024 than in 2023, so it is reasonable to expect that his cutter should be extremely effective again in 2025, and should rank among the best out pitches in the league once more. Fantasy managers should consider Clase as potentially the top relief arm heading into this season.

Zack Wheeler had the best sinker when it came to getting batters out last season, and here is why:

One significant marker on his sinker is his extension, which is elite at 7.2 feet. And despite below average location, his arm angle and his break helped overcome that and make his sinker incredibly difficult to hit.

His .189 BAA ranked second best among pitchers who tossed a sinker in at least 100 PAs. He also ranked 12th in strikeout rate and second in putaway rate using the same parameters.

A major reason for the high Out%, strikeout rate, and putaway rate, as well as the low BAA is a ridiculous 17.5 inches of arm side break. That ranked fifth last season among the 67 pitchers who threw at least 500 sinkers.

Wheeler’s sweeper and curveball also ranked above league average in Out%, and his cutter was exactly league average. With three solid out pitches, fantasy managers should consider Wheeler to be one of the top arms in the league once again in 2025, especially if he can improve his fastball or cutter effectiveness.

Bryce Miller completely changed his pitch mix in 2024, using a splitter instead of a changeup, and folding his curveball into his sweeper. He ended up with a fastball, sinker, and splitter that each ranked above league average in Out Rate. His splitter owned the 12th highest Out% of any pitch last season. When looking at his PLV data, this might not make sense, but there is context:

Nothing here jumps out, especially the lack of velocity and break, but there are reasons why this pitch was effective in spite of those seeming deficiencies. Miller’s splitter induced a .148 BAA, a 36% strikeout rate, and a 21% putaway rate. Those rank fifth, seventh, and 10th respectively among pitchers who threw a splitter in at least 100 plate appearances.

How could this splitter fool batters so well? His low iVB actually created a ton of depth on his splitter, resulting in 2.2 more inches of vertical break compared to righty pitchers who threw a splitter at least 100 times. He also averaged the 17th most arm-side and horizontal break as well.

Finally, he was one of several splitter-hurlers who actually used a low spin rate to make the pitch more deceptive. Miller had the 13th lowest spin rate of all pitchers who threw a splitter last season. That made it extremely difficult for batters to read.

Many expect Miller to regress majorly from his 2.94 ERA last season, but with multiple out pitches, including a great fastball, Miller should not fall off too much. He could be a great value for fantasy managers playing in leagues where others decide to fade him.

Derek Law currently looks like the Nationals’ closer, and with a slider that led the Out% leaderboards last season, he could be a great cheap option for saves in 2025.

Law’s slider was incredible last season, improving in many aspects from 2023. He added velocity, while also improving its BAA, whiff, and putaway rates. He ranked sixth, 22nd, and 15th respectively in those categories among pitchers who tossed a slider in at least 100 PAs last season. Law also owned the 21st best strikeout rate on a slider within the same parameters.

A major factor in its success was his ability to locate it well, especially against righty batters, though he tossed it to lefties as well. Law also threw it harder than the average slider, which may have deceived batters anticipating his cutter or fastball.

He also used it much more in 2024 than in 2023, leaning on it 30% of the time (up from 17%). This is important because with Out%, pitchers should be throwing their elite breaking stuff often, and Law did exactly that. If he shows a similar trend in 2025, he may repeat as the top slider in baseball and could be a source of very cheap saves.

Finally, Grayson Rodriguez owned the league’s best changeup last season when it came to getting batters out. Here is how his PLV lines up with Out%:

Rodriguez lacked velocity, but his elite extension made up for that, making the pitch look faster than it actually was and giving batters less time to react. The low iVB on his changeup gave it depth, and his 37 inches of vertical drop (eighth most among pitchers who threw at least 250 changeups) led to a ton of swings and misses. Among pitchers who threw a changeup in at least 100 plate appearances, G-Rod’s 32% strikeout rate ranked sixth best. He also owned the sixth best putaway rate at 25% and the sixth best BAA at .161.

Rodriguez relied heavily on his changeup to get outs against lefties, relying on his slider to get righty batters out. His slider was also an above average out pitch.

He has improved each season, and if these trends continue, he should be dominant in 2025, especially with multiple out pitches. If he can add even 1% to his fastball Out Rate, it would be league average and make him even more dangerous to opposing batters.

 

How Can We Use Out% in 2025?

 

From a fantasy baseball perspective, Out% is best used to provide context to pitchers’ other metrics.

Out% can help you cross-reference other stats to determine a pitcher’s legitimacy when it comes to their ERA, especially with pitchers who have low K/9 rates. Strikeouts are just one way to get a batter out, so for low K/9 pitchers having success, they must be getting outs in other ways, or else their success could be fluky.

One pitcher I noted from 2023 was Bryce Elder, who ended that season with a 3.81 ERA despite a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. If he had high Out Rates on his pitches, it would mean fantasy managers would not need to worry about the low strikeout rate because he would be getting outs in other ways. Unfortunately for Elder, that was not the case – he had multiple pitches with below average Out Rates.

We saw him regress in 2024, where he ended with a 6.52 ERA, finish the season with below average Out Rates once again.

Logan Webb also has a consistently low K/9 rate, ranging between 7.5-8 the last three seasons. The difference between Webb and Elder is that Webb has at least one pitch with above average Out%. For Webb, that elite out pitch is his changeup.

For the second year in a row, Webb allowed among the five highest contact rates to opposing batters, but also owned a top five ground-ball rate (among qualified pitchers). Having a pitch like his changeup, with a 22% Out Rate, gives context to how he is able to allow so much contact and still be successful. Clearly his changeup induces ground balls, which result in outs more than any other type of batted ball.

One pitcher of note that I mentioned to keep an eye on last season was Seth Lugo, who possessed a ton of value when it came to Out%. He was another pitcher with a low K/9 rate, but high Out Rates on multiple pitches.

Zach Eflin could be that guy heading into 2025. Eflin possessed the 11th lowest K/9 rate among qualified pitchers. He also managed the second lowest BB/9 among qualified pitchers. He also stranded batters and induced groundouts basically at a league average level.

What separates Eflin from the pack is that four of his pitches from last season had Out Rates above league average, including his fastball, curveball, sinker, and cutter.

According to PLV, his sinker was one of his best pitches, and notched a 19% Out Rate compared to a 17% league average rate.

Extension and location were his bread and butter with his sinker last season, but he also created the 14th most vertical inches of drop among 67 pitchers who tossed a sinker at least 500 times. That drop, as well as its depth and location helped make it a top sinker and one of the best at getting batters out. It also should play very well in Camden Yards.

 

Pitchers That Out% Loves for 2025 (at least 3 pitches with an Out% above league average)

 

 

Pitchers That Out% Likes for 2025 (2 pitches with an Out% above league average)

 

 

Pitchers to Fade Based on Out% (one or fewer pitches with an Out% above league average)

 

Taylor Tarter

Taylor is a fantasy baseball champion that has been playing for over a decade. Tune into his podcast, Fastball Fantasy Baseball, every Wednesday for in depth analysis making sabermetrics friendly to the everyday fantasy player.

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