Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every Monday of the year. Sidenote: It’s Wednesday this week with the all-star break and I’m on a small vacation. Expect the next edition to come on Tuesday, 7/18, then back to the normal schedule.
Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 2:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!
Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.
For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:
- This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
- We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
- If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
- Updated 6/6 – I am now adding an “Honorable Mentions” at the end of The List to cover all the other SP who are off The List. It replaces the “Others I Considered” table.
- Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
- I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
- The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.
Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:
I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.
Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!
One last point about that – oftentimes pitchers need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.
I added something new to The List this season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.
They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers ASAP. Some guys aren’t here and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.
Colors: Green = Most excited about. Yellow = Solid but not as urgent. Orange = Will likely take some time.
Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 45,000+ Top 300 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.
Let’s get to it.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
- These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.
- As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
- Added: Bryce Miller (37)
- Removed: Clayton Kershaw (6), Eury Pérez (50)
- Net Change Inside Top 61: (+1)
- Please understand how this affects movement across The List.
I’ve changed the notes this year to have a small blurb on everyone. Much easier to write and follow along in my view and it matches the formatting of the streamers. Please leave your feedback on this change – is it better or worse?
Tier 1 – The True Aces
1. Spencer Strider – Obviously.
2. Gerrit Cole – Still SP #2 and not below, even though the fastball and slider were worse before the break. The track record and stability are too good.
3. Luis Castillo – I believe in #HotCastilloSummer. Stop throwing sinkers please.
4. Kevin Gausman – The splitter hasn’t been Whiff McGee lately, but the fastball has been that good.
5. Shohei Ohtani – It’s odd to me that his slider usage has fallen off dramatically. Stumbled last time due to a blister and should be fine post-break.
6. Zac Gallen – He’s not at his peak at the moment and is still great for your squads.
Tier 2 – AGA We Hope Don’t Fall Off
7. Max Scherzer – The health is still there, though we have less faith for the full year than those above.
8. Joe Ryan – The secondaries are still lacking and we’re seeing some of the impacts of it. Should be fine, but there is a tinge of worry.
9. Framber Valdez – The ankle is okay and as long as the cutter is still present for the next three months, he’ll keep the AGA tag.
Tier 3 – Potential AGA
10. Joe Musgrove – I’m loving the curve and slider looking like their old selves. I need one or two more starts of it before I’m sold it’ll stick.
11. Carlos Rodón – The strikeouts weren’t there, but as I covered on YouTube, Rodón is in a great place and should produce consistently for your squads.
12. Tyler Glasnow – I still think his volatility rooted in questionable command holds back Glasnow from being a dependable ace, his highs will be more plentiful than the lows. Enjoy the strikeouts.
13. Zack Wheeler – He’s so close and yet so far…? The command comes in and out and the fastballs are often left alone to do all the work. That said, even when it isn’t perfect, Wheeler is very much worthwhile and the possible return to form puts him here.
14. George Kirby – The slider has become a called strike machine, which is wonderful, but the four-seamer can’t be the only strikeout offering in the bag. One legit whiff secondary pitch is all he needs to contend for a top tier spot.
15. Blake Snell – His run has been absurd and yet, I find myself ranking him here and wondering if it’s actually going to stick. Is it as simple as “effectively wild” and we should call it a day? When his four-seamer and changeup are this good, you may be able to.
16. Corbin Burnes – The cutter needs to get down more and the secondaries are not at their best, but he’s making small steps forward.
17. Pablo López – Luck is finally turning his way and his increased high heater usage is doing wonders.
18. Jesús Luzardo – Just 2 ER allowed in his last four games as he’s on pace to blow past 200 strikeouts this season.
19. Justin Verlander – He’s not going to be a 25%-30% strikeout guy and that’s okay. He’ll compete into the seventh often on what should be a winning ballclub.
20. James Paxton – The dude just can’t be stopped, he says, knowing Paxton’s extended injury history. The cutter is looking far better than when he returned and you simply can’t bench him for anyone.
Tier 4 – They Feel Like Aces But Aren’t
21. Sandy Alcantara – Sandy’s starting to turn it around, though I still want to see him get into a legit groove with his slider and changeup locations. He’s not quite there yet, but when he does, he’ll explode like the second half of 2021.
22. Lucas Giolito – The man has been stupid consistent for you, even if everything isn’t firing on all cylinders.
23. Julio Urías – The command was far better in his second outing. I wonder what the inning restraints will be as Urías may continue to be a five and dive for a moment.
24. Logan Webb – The changeup has been sensational, even if the slider hasn’t quite turned the corner.
25. Aaron Nola – I had to lower the fella as his command is oscillating too much. He’s obviously a guy you keep starting, but I have less faith that it’ll be a second-half of pure dominance without those (now) signature blowups.
26. Logan Gilbert – Gilbert did a wonderful job with sliders and curveballs in his last outing and I can only hope that it means he can rely on them steadily moving forward. And if he gets that splitter back…
27. Freddy Peralta – The velocity is there, the breakers are there, the redemption arc is there.
Tier 5 – Plug And Forget
28. Justin Steele – His four-seamer is essentially a cutter that he commands very well and mitigates hard contact. I’m still waiting for the slider to get the chases out of the zone that it used to, but Steele has become a stable arm with upside for more.
29. Tyler Wells – What a ride this has been for Wells and we keep riding his coattails.
30. Zach Eflin – The new cutter and increased emphasis on curveballs have worked wonders for Eflin. The ceiling isn’t as high as Tier 4, but I understand if you might prefer his floor to others.
31. Yu Darvish – It’s a wild thing, but I love that Darvish is experimenting and trying to find a groove that sticks. He’ll get there.
32. Bailey Ober – The Bailey Special is 6 IP, 1/2 ER, with a 1.17 WHIP and a strikeout per inning. And we love that.
33. Mitch Keller – I’m still a little weirded out by Keller’s lack of breaker whiffs and relying so heavily on hard contact reduction, but it’s worked for most of the year and his recent velocity dip was rectified last start.
Tier 6 – What Is Going On Here
34. Dylan Cease – It’s back to the big shrug of Cease as we just don’t know if the slider and one of his fastball/curve will be there or not. You can’t bench him for the potential strikeout boom he could give and we can only hope as of now. I feel like he’s trending upward, even if it’s a staggered ascension.
35. Hunter Brown – Go easy on Brown. His stuff is fantastic and you can see even in the bad ratio starts that the strikeout, whiff, and CSW marks are still there. It’s a process for the youngster and generally we see guys like him get better in the second half as they figure out how to best use their repertoire.
36. Bobby Miller – I overvalued Miller’s changeup and curveball as dependable strike pitches, while the slider hasn’t been as deadly as we saw in its 11 whiff game. I believe in his fastball massively, and my comp is peak Sandy where he has a 100 mph fastball he jams inside, mixed with a legit whiff pitch (slider) and at least one other he can throw for strikes.
37. Bryce Miller – He’s returning during the first pass of the rotation and with his stupid good heater, we’re back on the Bryce train.
38. Andrew Abbott – I didn’t move Abbott from last week as what we saw against the Brewers was the reason why he placed here in the first place. That start wasn’t a nail in the coffin, it was a showcase of the possible outcomes, just like the 12 strikeout game before. Stick with Abbott, but understand he isn’t destined to be this year’s Strider.
39. Reid Detmers – He stumbled against the Dodgers with a poorly located slider and some fantastic hitting as well. Brush it off and keep starting him.
Tier 7 – Hollys + Maybe There’s More
40. Sonny Gray – I want to believe Gray is in a fantastic rhythm, but we all know he goes up and down throughout the year.
41. Brayan Bello – My biggest concern with Bello is how rooted in sinker/changeup he is as the four-seamer can be good and the slider is inconsistent. It’s a great combo, though, with room to grow if the slider takes off.
42. José Berríos – He’s found his approach and it works. You love to see it.
43. Nathan Eovaldi – Honestly, I’m shocked he tossed in the All-Star Game given the recent velocity dips and I’m pretty scared for what’s ahead. His last four games: 93.8, 94.4, 96.1, 94.1. This is a guy who is supposed to be 96/97 on a given night, sometimes 95/96.
44. Tarik Skubal – The leash is getting looser for Skubal, who still has some polish left to add on his secondaries. The four-seamer at two ticks harder and living upstairs is glorious, however, and I may have him in Tier 6 as soon as next week.
45. Bryan Woo – He’d be a tier higher if it weren’t for the expectation that Woo is sent to the minors in the near future. It shouldn’t be for too long, but the Mariners are playing this safe, especially if they aren’t in playoff contention.
46. Kenta Maeda – Maeda is looking like the man I wanted him to be out of spring training. The splitter is working, the fastball is sneaking into the zone, and the slider is doing all the things. There is a peak version of Maeda that comes with more slider whiff dominance, but even without it, he’s a solid play.
47. Marcus Stroman – He’s struggled lately, but I imagine his likely trade at the deadline will only motivate him more to succeed. I have to wonder, though, maybe moving away from the Cubs infield defense will hurt him…
48. Braxton Garrett – Garrett has taken a small step back lately with his command and I’m worried he won’t get it back. Too early to tell right now, but it’s the first hiccup since he began dominating with the cutter.
49. Chris Bassitt – I dunno y’all. he’s still the mostly same Bassitt to me and that’s a guy who should be performing better than he is now. So weird to see him go 0/18 four-seamer whiffs last time out, though.
Tier 8 – Should We Be Holding?
50. Lance Lynn – Who knows. He just had another phenomenal outing and we have to keep holding, but it could be implosion after implosion. Let’s hope for the best.
51. Charlie Morton – Morton’s curveball is elite, it’s all about everything else. He’s generally more helpful than harmful, but it’s a process and as much of a HIPSTER as anyone.
52. Cristian Javier – Both the four-seamer and slider command shapes are worse, while he’s not locating as well, either. I can’t judge him too harshly for a poor outing against the Rangers, but we have to consider this mostly a stash play right now. He’s wearing the TIARA right now.
53. Kodai Senga – Even though the 1.28 WHIP hurts profoundly, I’ve been underrating the fact that he has 113 strikeouts on the year. You just can’t give that up and huge props to Senga for holding it across the season.
54. Taj Bradley – Speaking of strikeouts and a questionable WHIP, here’s Bradley who doesn’t have the command he needs to have for profound success.
55. Gavin Williams – I worry about Gavin’s command as well, though he did flex legit whiff numbers with his four-seamer in his last start. can he actually execute the BSB or is this going to be another Cherry Bomb à la Triston McKenzie and the above Bradley?
56. Shane Bieber – Bieber doesn’t have his slider and his curve is trying to fill the void. I have my doubts that it will.
57. Jack Flaherty – Flaherty isn’t wowing us like we want to, but I think he’s in a good enough place with his 93 mph heater and breakers to make him worthwhile on your squads, with a hint of potential if it all comes back into place.
58. Tanner Bibee – I want to like Bibee more, but I don’t trust that he’ll have the ability to place his four-pitch mix where he wants to in a given at-bat. He needs more polish to be a consistent producer.
Tier 9 – The Tobys You’re Rostering
59. Eduardo Rodriguez – His first start back was rough, but that’s a Still ILL. We saw Erod in rhythm earlier this year and he’ll be well worthwhile when he is again later this summer – maybe even in his next start.
60. Emmet Sheehan – Sheehan lives through his lateral 96 mph heater and until he showcases more whiffability in his secondaries, he’ll continue being a solid Toby type with only potential for more.
61. Seth Lugo – He just returned 18 whiffs in his last start and pitches in front of one of the best defenses around.
62. Bryce Elder – The magic could be coming off, but I don’t think I can judge Elder for a poor outing against the Rays, even if it came with four walks. Four walks?! Yeah…
63. Michael Soroka – The more time we give Soroka on the bump, the better he’ll be. The strikeouts won’t be a massive thing, though.
64. Alex Cobb – I really dig the slider returning for Cobb, especially when the splitter isn’t at its best. I want to see a little more first before raising him out of the tier.
65. J.P. France – He’s as Toby as it gets for a winning ballclub and better stuff than your average boring fella.
66. Taijuan Walker – It’s a lot of chaos between oscillating velocities, splitters, and cutters, but he’s been finding a way.
67. Kyle Hendricks – I really dig the sinker and changeup command, but I can’t raise him until the curve returns as well. The Yankee start was great until the very end.
68. Jordan Montgomery – I’d have him higher, but it’s still unclear if The Bear will miss time due to a hamstring injury he suffered in his last start. If he’s good to go, I’d likely have Monty at the top of this tier.
69. Tony Gonsolin – It hasn’t been fun rostering Gonsolin lately, but the recent outings have been the expected regression as luck went the other way. It isn’t neutral luck, it’s just poor luck after receiving a lot of great luck. He’s neither the excellent nor the poor in actuality.
Here is where prospect pitchers would appear if they are called up as I feel those in Tier 9 and below could be off your teams next week (or now?) in 12-teamers.
Tier 10 – The Actual Cherry Bombs
70. Steven Matz – Matz returned after a long hiatus with increased velocity and legit whiffs for nine strikeouts. This could be the man we wanted entering 2022 and I’m all for taking a chance on it.
71. Yusei Kikuchi – I dig the new approach of heavy breaker usage inside the zone, but he’s featured a few too many hangers with it (mostly the curve), while the fastball is still all over the place. He could smooth it out, though.
72. Jon Gray – We saw Gray at his peak, then get disrupted and fall back to the blegh self of April. I can’t help but wonder if he just needs a few more starts to rev back up.
73. Griffin Canning – The secondaries are fantastic and a start against the Dodgers shouldn’t be enough to kick him off your 15-teamers. Shallower leagues should consider him more as a streamer, though, especially with the six-man rotation and being matchup dependent.
74. Domingo Germán – He’s the same guy he’s always been – elite curveball, decent fastball and change.
75. Kyle Bradish – Is Bradish able to squeeze enough out of his slider and curve? Can he earn called strikes with his four-seamer and reduce their balls in play? I’m not sure, but he’s been hotter than expected as of late and you may want to chase that.
76. MacKenzie Gore – I don’t believe in the Nationals’ approach with pitchers, nor Gore’s consistency with his stuff. So much fun, though.
Tier 11 – The Tobys On The Brink
77. Wade Miley – He’s throwing two ticks harder and while that is normally INCREDIBLE, it’s Miley, so it still means he’s sub 93 mph. Still, it’s something to heavily monitor.
78. Aaron Civale – He’s doing the right things with heavy secondary usage, and yet, it adds up to a Toby, not a must-roster.
79. Cristopher Sánchez – I wonder if he can keep up the marks he’s gotten on his changeup, while the sinker and slider have been solid. He’s getting stretched out and this could work through the second half.
80. Tommy Henry – The slider is solid…and yet it took a backseat in his last start (despite good results) as he was fortunate with batted balls. Weird. I hope it returns next time out.
81. Dean Kremer – He’s had some wonderful flashes across the last few weeks and his four-seamer is getting far more whiffs than I expected. I’m skeptical he can keep it up, especially with his cutter, but there may be something there as he’s at the end of your roster for his ability to go six frames for a winning team.
82. JP Sears – The four-seamer is a great pitch, but he still struggles to locate it start-to-start, making for some great outings mixed with poor-but-not-enough-to-rage-drop starts.
Tier 12 – Two Stashes And A Headache
83. Luis Severino – He’s absolutely lost and yet I want to believe he’s just a tweak away from figuring it out. The ultimate stash TIARA. Do what you want to do here, but keep in mind that there isn’t so much season left for you to spend a roster spot on him.
84. Alek Manoah – The result was great, the performance was not. Watch all my disappointment here as his return was more the Tigers being poor than Manoah returning to glory. That said, it’s not the worst spec add to see what happens next. At least the slider shape was solid and he earned more four-seamer whiffs.
85. Andrew Heaney – He’s a strikeout dart throw on a given night and you can’t trust him as a long term add. The command just isn’t what we want.
Tier 13 – Stream Considerations
86. Reese Olson – He came in relief for Skubal last time out and with Erod + Manning also back, he’s tightly holding onto the fifth spot of the rotation. I think there’s some exciting stuff here with his fastballs, slider, and a potentially nasty changeup, so play the matchups and maybe it sticks.
87. Kyle Gibson – The man just earned a Golden Goal as everything in his arsenal was perfection and yet we can’t buy it.
88. Ranger Suárez – He hit the Vargas Rule wall two starts ago and at this point, I’m just hoping he gets back on the horse.
89. Clarke Schmidt – I want to raise him higher, but I just don’t see a high enough ceiling to justify it. He doesn’t have that putaway pitch, his approach against lefties is still weird, and he may be ousted from the rotation soon with a deadline acquisition or the return of Nestor… if Severino gets it together.
90. Martín Pérez – He’s essentially a Toby but the highs of his streaming matchups aren’t enough to keep him rostered.
91. Dane Dunning – He relies on inside sinkers that don’t get enough O-Swing and the secondaries don’t get whiffs. It can work sometimes, but boy do I shiver.
92. Kutter Crawford – The four-seamer is great and with time I wonder if he’ll throw more sliders/sweepers to become a heavy two-pitch arm. There’s potential here, just maybe not right now.
93. José Quintana – He’s coming back finally from his rib injury and I’m curious what we get. It’s all about command with Quintana, so I have low expectations he’ll slide right back into place.
94. Johan Oviedo – The slider is getting strikes and when the four-seamer does as well, he can produce against middling squads.
95. Michael Lorenzen – He’s a streaming option to consider when facing a weak team, nothing more. Yes, even as an All-Star.
96. Miles Mikolas – I guess there’s a shot he goes 6+ frames with good ratios on a given night. Expect a ton of turbulence.
97. Jake Irvin – The velocity is up and he’s starting to experiment with curveballs now to complement the heater. There’s a chance it clicks into place over time.
98. Nick Pivetta – He’s back, taking over bullpen games and it’s possible he’s worthwhile for the strikeouts.
99. Alex Wood – He performed well across five frames of Rockie Road and maybe he should be considered as a streamer once again.
100. Luis Medina – This isn’t just a “whatever” 100th spot. Medina showed up with a new skill of legit sliders in his last outing and my eyebrow has been raised wondering if he does it again. There’s a good chance he doesn’t, but maybe, just maybe, he does.
Honorable Mentions
You’re getting little blurbs on everyone else I can think of. I can’t help myself. This is not in ranking order.
Eury Pérez – He was demoted to the minors as the Marlins are limiting his workload for the year. I imagine he’ll return around the first or second week of August and it’s a tough call to determine if you should hold on. For roto leagues, that’s about 25-30% of the remaining season, but for H2H leagues, you have to hold for your potential playoff run.
Ryne Nelson – The changeup is supposed to be the #2 pitch now (I guess) and it’s not reliable.
Brady Singer – He’s a Cherry Bomb that just isn’t sweet enough to consider. It’s about time we move on.
Graham Ashcraft – He hasn’t had cutter command before and it doesn’t look like now is the time.
Brandon Bielak – The Astros don’t need his services any longer and have moved on from him in the rotation.
Josiah Gray – The risk simply isn’t worth the reward and even if you pick him up after a good start, there’s no basis for him replicating success.
Keaton Winn – I was a little curious, but I’m not seeing enough of a leash to consider this, especially with the splitter nor heater getting whiffs last time out.
Drew Smyly – He’s still considerable as a streamer but is so middling that you don’t need to roster him until his curve becomes a legit pitch again. Gotta get that dang thing down.
Julio Teheran – The Vargas Rule has run its course. After getting battered by the Cubs last week, he’s a very clear drop.
Patrick Sandoval – It brings me no joy to remove The Irish Panda. He’s too inconsistent with his change and slider failing to take over games.
Paul Blackburn – He could return if he’s able to string together a few starts and give us confidence again starting him when he faces weak teams.
Logan Allen – He could be back in the majors this week with Cal Quantrill heading to the IL again. If he does get the green light, he’d be on The List around the 70s.
Brandon Pfaadt – He was served up to the Rays in his return from the minors because baseball is a cruel, cruel sport. Wait until something clicks.
AJ Smith-Shawver – Demoted to the minor leagues. I’m not the biggest fan of what he brought to the table, but I’m curious how he develops over the years.
Louie Varland – Demoted to the minor leagues. It’s unfair as he was given one of the worst schedules you’ll ever see. He’ll be back and become a solid pickup when he does.
Rich Hill – He didn’t come through against poor teams and now he has tougher teams.
Joey Wentz – Welp, the nine strikeout game wasn’t real. We move on.
Randy Vásquez – He’s dancing with Jhony Brito for the #5 spot and he’s not worth the stash.
Jhony Brito – Ditto with Vásquez.
Tanner Houck – He’s hurt and on the cusp of the Top 100 right when he returns. Would likely take a few weeks before he gets stretched out + hints at the same command.
Zach Davies – The changeup was good against the Guardians and yet disaster arrived. It’s hard to pick your spots well.
Osvaldo Bido – You’re looking for something stable and Bido is far from it. There will be brief moments, but he’s not the arm you need.
Hogan Harris – Was a fun moment, but the craft lefty was shaky against the Marlins and has a bad schedule ahead.
Jared Shuster – He failed to earn a single strikeout against the Nationals. Yeah.
Matt Manning – He returned and is showing a slightly better slider and still not enough fantasy-wise. Yes, even after being a part of the no-hitter.
Mike Clevinger – He doesn’t have an elite pitch and the schedule is getting harder.
Dakota Hudson – He could be starting for the Cardinals with Waino on the shelf. That’s a desperate quality start play, but maybe he shows us something new?
Cole Irvin – He went sub 70 pitches in his second outing. It may be a moment before we circle his start for a stream.
Ronel Blanco – Blanco may be a 50% slider guy and I wonder if he’ll get more chances in the future, especially if Valdez’s ankle injury persists.
Daniel Lynch – If the new slider is legit, then I’ll add him to The List. Time will tell. He’s going fastball/change now and it’s all kinds of weird.
Trevor Rogers – He’s expected back soon(ish) and I’m excited to see what he does.
Mike Mayers – The low slider and change weren’t there and the fun ends.
Dave Mlicki – He’s the dude that got me a 0.007% on Immaculate Grid and I think I’ll never play it again. Gotta leave at the top.
Hayden Wesneski – I want to see him dominate once before I get excited again.
Anthony DeSclafani – His command has been wonky and the schedule is far worse now.
Sean Manaea – He’s throwing a loopier slider and it could be what he needs, but the Giants aren’t letting him start. Sit back and monitor.
Matthew Liberatore – The Cards are moving on from Liberatore and rightfully so with less velocity and a worse slider.
Michael Grove – There’s potential and it’s best to wait until he showcases it. He just needs to elevate the four-seamer!
Carlos Carrasco – The schedule is blegh and Carrasco doesn’t do enough. For example, eight innings of shutout ball returned just four strikeouts. I’m not interested
Marco Gonzales – He’s hurt and I’ll need to see the same command when he comes back before returning to The List.
Patrick Corbin – Ha, that was a fun four-start ride, wasn’t it?
Brandon Williamson – The cutter makes for some nights of survival, but you want a better life.
Jaime Barría – Slider and change can be good, but the ceiling feels awfully low.
Roansy Contreras – I hate his four-seamer even if it’s still a solid slider, and now he’s out of the rotation.
Colin Rea – He has these ridiculous nights out of nowhere. There are worse dart throws.
Tyler Anderson – His changeup looks good, but I’m not ready to jump back in.
Yonny Chirinos – He’s been on a solid stretch, but the sinker/slider combo is sooooo mediocre. At least the splitter is waking up…?
Ryan Yarbrough – It’s cool that he’s pitching again. That doesn’t mean you have to roster his slooooow arsenal that is highly dependent on command and a fortunate BABIP for a losing ball club.
Austin Voth – He’s not in the rotation.
Zack Greinke – Greinke does what Greinke does.
Jordan Lyles – He’s come through once when the matchup was good. ONCE.
Dylan Covey – I wonder who the Phillies will replace him with at the deadline.
Trevor Williams – He hasn’t been fantasy relevant for a while.
Connor Seabold – It’s Coors and far too risky on any night.
Chase Anderson – It’s Coors and far too risky on any night.
Austin Gomber – It’s Coors and far too risky on any night.
Kyle Freeland – It’s Coors and far too risky on any night.
Matt Strahm – Is he stretched out? Are the Phillies actually going to lean on him? Highly unlikely and sadly I don’t think he’s a guy to chase.
Ryan Weathers – Absolutely not.
Trevor Richards – Not stretched out and would be off The List even if he were.
Jesse Scholtens – Not stretched out and holds a super low strikeout rate.
Ross Stripling – He’s not firmly in the rotation and what we’ve seen from him is meaningless without his 2022 changeup.
Adrian Houser – Naaaaaaah.
David Peterson – He isn’t doing enough with his repertoire and gets pushed out with José Quintana returning.
Touki Toussaint – Yes, he’s pitching again. No, he’s not fantasy relevant.
Brandon Walter – The Red Sox are letting him pitch in games and that’s all there is to say about him.
Chris Murphy – The Red Sox are letting him pitch in games and that’s all there is to say about him. Hey, you just wrote that? Is it wrong?
Cooper Criswell – The Rays are kinda featuring him in bullpen games and it’s not something to chase.
Austin Cox – Any excitement I had about Cox after going 8/24 four-seamer whiffs went out the window when he followed it up with 1/40 whiffs. Womp womp.
Alec Marsh – I’ve seen worse arms with the Royals but this isn’t the time to suddenly get in on a young Royals arm.
Kyle Muller – He’s throwing harder, but Muller’s approach with mediocre secondaries makes for a poor fantasy option.
Kolby Allard – I know, he just fanned eight batters. And yet, it’s still Dralla, who isn’t showcasing any new skills. No, the four-seamer isn’t a new-and-improved pitch.
Bryan Hoeing – He’s a sinkerballer that can squirm his way through five frames on a given night.
SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES
| Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spencer StriderT1 | Aces Gonna Ace | - |
| 2 | Gerrit Cole | Aces Gonna Ace | - |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | Aces Gonna Ace | - |
| 4 | Kevin Gausman | Aces Gonna Ace | - |
| 5 | Shohei Ohtani | Aces Gonna Ace | - |
| 6 | Zac Gallen | Aces Gonna Ace | +2 |
| 7 | Max ScherzerT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk | - |
| 8 | Joe Ryan | Aces Gonna Ace | +1 |
| 9 | Framber Valdez | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk | +1 |
| 10 | Joe MusgroveT3 | Ace Potential | +9 |
| 11 | Carlos Rodón | Ace Potential Injury Risk | +4 |
| 12 | Tyler Glasnow | Ace Potential | +1 |
| 13 | Zack Wheeler | Ace Potential | -1 |
| 14 | George Kirby | Ace Potential | - |
| 15 | Blake Snell | Ace Potential | +1 |
| 16 | Corbin Burnes | Ace Potential | +1 |
| 17 | Pablo López | Ace Potential | +1 |
| 18 | Jesús Luzardo | Ace Potential | +3 |
| 19 | Justin Verlander | Ace Potential | -8 |
| 20 | James Paxton | Ace Potential Injury Risk | +2 |
| 21 | Sandy AlcantaraT4 | Ace Potential | +2 |
| 22 | Lucas Giolito | Ace Potential | +4 |
| 23 | Julio Urías | Ace Potential | +2 |
| 24 | Logan Webb | Ace Potential | +3 |
| 25 | Aaron Nola | Ace Potential | -5 |
| 26 | Logan Gilbert | Ace Potential | +2 |
| 27 | Freddy Peralta | Ace Potential | +4 |
| 28 | Justin SteeleT5 | Quality Starts | +6 |
| 29 | Tyler Wells | Quality Starts | +4 |
| 30 | Zach Eflin | Quality Starts | +10 |
| 31 | Yu Darvish | Quality Starts | +1 |
| 32 | Bailey Ober | Quality Starts | +6 |
| 33 | Mitch Keller | Quality Starts | +2 |
| 34 | Dylan CeaseT6 | Ace Potential | -5 |
| 35 | Hunter Brown | Ace Potential | -5 |
| 36 | Bobby Miller | Ace Potential | -12 |
| 37 | Bryce Miller | Ace Potential Injury Risk | +UR |
| 38 | Andrew Abbott | Ace Potential | -2 |
| 39 | Reid Detmers | Ace Potential | -2 |
| 40 | Sonny GrayT7 | Quality Starts | +4 |
| 41 | Brayan Bello | Quality Starts | +7 |
| 42 | José Berríos | Quality Starts | +7 |
| 43 | Nathan Eovaldi | Injury Risk Quality Starts | -2 |
| 44 | Tarik Skubal | Quality Starts | +12 |
| 45 | Bryan Woo | Ace Potential | +2 |
| 46 | Kenta Maeda | Quality Starts | +9 |
| 47 | Marcus Stroman | Quality Starts | -1 |
| 48 | Braxton Garrett | Quality Starts | -9 |
| 49 | Chris Bassitt | Quality Starts | -7 |
| 50 | Lance LynnT8 | Cherry Bomb | +8 |
| 51 | Charlie Morton | Cherry Bomb | - |
| 52 | Cristian Javier | Cherry Bomb | -7 |
| 53 | Kodai Senga | Cherry Bomb | +21 |
| 54 | Taj Bradley | Cherry Bomb | - |
| 55 | Gavin Williams | Cherry Bomb | -2 |
| 56 | Shane Bieber | Cherry Bomb | -13 |
| 57 | Jack Flaherty | Injury Risk Cherry Bomb | +8 |
| 58 | Tanner Bibee | Cherry Bomb | -8 |
| 59 | Eduardo RodriguezT9 | Toby | +1 |
| 60 | Emmet Sheehan | Toby | +3 |
| 61 | Seth Lugo | Toby | +7 |
| 62 | Bryce Elder | Toby | - |
| 63 | Michael Soroka | Toby | +1 |
| 64 | Alex Cobb | Toby | +3 |
| 65 | J.P. France | Toby | +1 |
| 66 | Taijuan Walker | Toby | +4 |
| 67 | Kyle Hendricks | Toby | +4 |
| 68 | Jordan Montgomery | Injury Risk Toby | -7 |
| 69 | Tony Gonsolin | Toby | +3 |
| 70 | Steven MatzT10 | Cherry Bomb | +UR |
| 71 | Yusei Kikuchi | Cherry Bomb | -14 |
| 72 | Jon Gray | Cherry Bomb | -13 |
| 73 | Griffin Canning | Cherry Bomb | +3 |
| 74 | Domingo Germán | Cherry Bomb | +3 |
| 75 | Kyle Bradish | Cherry Bomb | +3 |
| 76 | MacKenzie Gore | Cherry Bomb | +4 |
| 77 | Wade MileyT11 | Toby | +10 |
| 78 | Aaron Civale | Toby | +7 |
| 79 | Cristopher Sánchez | Toby | +20 |
| 80 | Tommy Henry | Toby | +6 |
| 81 | Dean Kremer | Toby | +10 |
| 82 | Toby | -1 | |
| 83 | Luis SeverinoT12 | Cherry Bomb | -4 |
| 84 | Alek Manoah | Cherry Bomb | +UR |
| 85 | Andrew Heaney | Cherry Bomb | -10 |
| 86 | Reese OlsonT13 | Streaming Option | -4 |
| 87 | Kyle Gibson | Streaming Option | +7 |
| 88 | Ranger Suárez | Streaming Option | -15 |
| 89 | Clarke Schmidt | Streaming Option | -5 |
| 90 | Martín Pérez | Streaming Option | -2 |
| 91 | Dane Dunning | Streaming Option | +6 |
| 92 | Kutter Crawford | Streaming Option | -9 |
| 93 | Alex Wood | Streaming Option | +UR |
| 94 | Jose Quintana | Streaming Option | +UR |
| 95 | Johan Oviedo | Streaming Option | -2 |
| 96 | Nick Pivetta | Streaming Option | +UR |
| 97 | Jake Irvin | Streaming Option | -2 |
| 98 | Michael Lorenzen | Streaming Option | - |
| 99 | Miles Mikolas | Streaming Option | +UR |
| 100 | Luis Medina | Streaming Option | +UR |
Labels Legend
Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
Hey Nick, Love your work and really respect your analysis so this definitely isn’t a callout more of just a request for you to educate me on this question.
Logan Webb’s advanced metrics seem to be either very elite:
xFIP: 2.91 (3rd in MLB)
SIERA: 3.12 (3rd in MLB)
GB%: 60.3% (1st in MLB)
or elite:
K% – BB%: 20.7 (12th in MLB)
xERA: 3.57 (13th in MLB)
And on top of that he is a workhorse with the most IP in baseball. Yet you have him ranked in the 20s. Im curious if you could explain what I’m missing here, would really appreciate it. Does it all come down to your issues with his pitch repertoire or are there some numbers you are looking at that I’m missing?
Thanks so much
Freddy Peralta at 27 is laughable. He stinks.
I got to meet Mlicki and his wife after he pitched in the Astrodome. Different times!
Hey Nick, struggling with what to do with Eury Perez. I have Rodon ready to come off the IL and would need to drop Eovaldi, Garrett or Eury. Seems like Garrett is my drop to activate Rodon but am I better off cutting Eury or Eovaldi for Skubal who’s available off the waiver? Your rank on Skubal is pretty aggressive. Is he worth jumping off one of those guys or are you holding Eury and Eovaldi?
Eovaldi has been the #1 SP in roto leagues this year. i get nick is sounding the alarm bells because his fastball velo has been down a tick for 4 starts. But he has 5 pitches, goes deep into games, and is on a winning team. Would be foolish to drop IMO.