Welcome to the ultimate guide to drafting Starting Pitchers for 2026 Fantasy Baseball. I’ve ranked the Top 400 (actually 430…) starting pitchers for the year ahead in an attempt to determine every SP who could help your fantasy teams this season.
However, before you scroll down to the Top 1-20, it’s incredibly important that you read this introduction. It highlights how I rank pitchers and why this is not a projection of the end of season Player Rater. It’s my strategy of how I draft pitchers, embracing the burn and churn nature of the game.
Remember, these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation. I’ve also added the Top 100 SP table at the bottom of this article.
For a table of the entire 400 SP (really 430!) and to read this article Ad-Free (or to simply support me for putting all of this together!), make sure to subscribe to PL+ or PL Pro where I have these rankings inside a massive Google Sheet, with my blurbs included. You can access the sheet inside our subscriber Discord.
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Read The Notes
Tier 5 – AGA Holly (Cont’d)
21. Eury Perez (MIA, RHP)
Isolate the four-seamer on its own merits and it’s one of the better fastballs in baseball: elite velocity, strong vert, flat attack angle. The issue? He consistently leaves it over the middle of the plate rather than elevating at the top of the zone. The industry, collectively, is overrating the command of that pitch right now.
Against RHB, he can get by with four-seamers, sliders, and curveballs, plus a natural sinker with 17+ inches of horizontal movement that should see more usage. The real concern is LHB. At-bats grind on as batters foul off fastball after fastball, and there’s no reliable putaway. The changeup was supposed to be the answer, but last year it posted a sub-30% strike rate. The pitch lived in the dirt. When it did find the zone, the surprise generated decent whiffs, but that’s not a sustainable approach.
Here’s why I’m still buying: Perez fits the half-season-back-from-Tommy John pattern perfectly. Skubal followed it. Ragans followed it. Corbin Burnes in 2020. It’s one of the most reliable breakout indicators we track. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt, but the changeup development and fastball command are necessary for Perez to reach the ceiling being priced in.
Quick Take: The half-season-back-from-TJS pattern tilts the arrow upward, but meaningful changeup development and improved fastball location are necessary for Perez to hit his ceiling. The industry is paying for the projection, not the current product.
22. Nick Pivetta (SDP, RHP)
Hey, that was pretty cool, Pivetta. After eight seasons in the majors as a starting pitcher, you finally had a season under a 4.00 ERA. Yes, that had to do with his massive decline in HR rate, with his sweeper falling from 9 HRs to just one allowed to RHB, and there’s a case to be made that the new baseball that increased air drag had something to do with it + San Diego’s home part greatly reduces home runs in April and May. Okay, shouldn’t those be the same for another season? Possibly. I’m willing to bet the baseball will have a little less drag this year (it had the most it ever had and fluctuates year-to-year) and Pivetta was more fortunate than ever. His 51% ICR on his four-seamer allowed far fewer hits than you’d expect, part of the dramatic dip in his BABIP to sub .240 levels. I hate being that reductive, but we all know that won’t last, even if leaning more into the cutter last year against RHB looks like a proper gain.
And that’s really it. He’s four-seamer/curve to LHB and that’s always worked, and it’s pretty simple to look at last year, recognize his hit luck and HR luck, regress it, and call it a day. Where does that leave us? Why, with a discount Joe Ryan. Wait, I thought this was going to be an anti-Pivetta blurb. You know, I thought so too. And yet, I keep staring at a low walk arm who showed us what life is like if HRs are reduced. It’s pretty, isn’t it?
Quick Take: Yes, Pivetta allowed fewer HRs and had a dramatically lower BABIP than usual. He also has been a WHIP darling for three seasons, is in a great situation, and even with a regression close to his previous seasons, he’s still a solid strikeout producer with positive ratios.
23. Ryan Pepiot (TBR, RHP)
The case for Pepiot is simple. He’s fresh off 31 starts and will be leaned upon as the ace of the staff for the Rays while pitching in a much better home park, likely improving on his strikeout and walk rates, and lowering his home run total. He certainly throws enough strikes to suggest a walk rate far better than a 9% clip (four pitches above 63% strikes, three above 65%), his changeup returns whiffs to both RHB and LHB (though he should be earning more against the latter), the four-seamer carries 95 mph velocity with 96th percentile vert and should be better in the Trop, and there’s room to grow with his slider and cutter. He even began using a sinker inside to RHB to help deal with last year’s mess of a home park and you should expect it to return again in 2026.
The biggest knock on Pepiot is his command. I want to blame George Steinbrenner Field for preventing a foundation of rhythm, but it does explain how he returned a higher walk rate than his strike rate would suggest (i.e. Pepiot has bouts of losing his feel that has him lose batters). The lack of slider whiffs is also a concern, but it’s not for lack of movement – Pepiot returns -7″ of cut on the pitch – and I expect it to improve over time.
I can’t shake the feeling that Pepiot is riskier than my ranking suggests, especially with a fair number of fun and exciting pitchers sitting below him. That said, I can’t help but look at last year’s success and anticipate improvement simply based on his vastly improved home park. In addition, it’s hard to find quality volume with 26%+ strikeout potential, and Pepiot fits the bill.
Quick Take: Pepiot’s four-seamer and changeup are elite, and the slider’s sweep should return more whiffs, opening the door for a higher strikeout rate in 2026. The huge upgrade in home park is sure to help with his control and reduce HRs, which makes it difficult to anticipate anything outside of “The same as last year but a little better”. Considering Pepiot nearly hit 170 innings last season, a stud season is closer to his grasp than others going near him.
24. Drew Rasmussen (TBR, RHP)
Those who feared drafting Rasmussen last season missed out on 150 frames of phenomenal ratios across the full year, and guess what? I don’t see why we can’t run it back a second year, if not with a little extra. The health risk, that’s why! Maybe, though the Rays just put him through a limited season and I imagine they’ll keep him on a similar cadence this season – not to mention, Rasmussen’s ability to churn outs with incredibly hard to hit fastballs (including his cutter) allows him to throw fewer pitches than most to get those innings.
There’s not much else to say. I’m not sure he’ll get back into a groove with his breakers, especially when that cutter is so dang good on its own, but he has to find a way to get the pitch over a 20% putaway rate to LHB, while keeping his four-seamer’s mark above 20% above RHB if we’re going to see strikeouts push toward 25%. Wouldn’t that be lovely. He’s safe, and without the massive workload last year, I love snagging him in drafts as my SP #3/#4.
Quick Take: He doesn’t have the same electricity as others, but Rasmussen’s fastballs are so dang hard to hit that he’s one of the safer ratio guys you’ll find outside the Top 15 SP. The two concerns are strikeouts and volume, with the former needing growth from his cutter to LHB, and the latter a question of health. He survived last year just fine without a massive workload, and you’ll benefit from Rasmussen’s production on your rosters.
25. Cam Schlittler (NYY, RHP)
Sometimes you just want pitchers on your team who are fun. Cam is one of those arms, even if there are reasons for skepticism – recent back inflammation/lat soreness aside, which he’s outlined as a “non issue”.
He wasn’t overwhelming initially, making us wait for a breakthrough outing in Tampa Bay where Schlittler figured out the optimal mix: four-seamers, cutters, curveballs. That cutter at 91-92 mph separates from his 96 mph heater with dramatic movement while the velocity stays close enough that hitters can’t distinguish them out of the hand. That’s the tunnel. When he locates it, the results are devastating.
The problem is he hasn’t consistently located it, particularly to RHB where a 38% zone rate produced sub-60% strikes. The curveball carries similar potential with similar inconsistency: just 6% SwStr to RHB at 21% usage. That really needs to get better, as I don’t believe Schlittler should be able to cruise through outings just with his four-seamer for a full season. There’s also the workload question. 150+ innings through minors and majors, plus playoff starts pushing toward 165 total. That’s significant volume for a young arm who added velocity rapidly, and the spike still nags at me.
If health holds, the growth trajectory is real. His four-seamer is obviously a fantastic foundation (whiffs to both sides of the plate and constantly upstairs!), and there’s room for growth via cutter approach, curveball command, and improved sinker usage inside to RHB, plus the Yankees are sure to lean on him heavily as a staple throughout the season. Among the “Hype 7” as Eno likes to call them, Schlittler stands out as the safest of the sophomore arms. Just stay healthy. Please.
Quick Take: Schlittler’s four-seamer is a great foundation, though I expect a touch of regression that will put more weight on the cutter to find the zone more often and the curve to return more whiffs. Expect gains among the arsenal to help withstand some of the regression, while the situation in Pinstripes is a lovely environment for continued production.
26. Sandy Alcantara (MIA, RHP)
You know me, I’ve been a Sandy guy since 2020. The 2022 Cy Young remains the clearest picture of what this arm does at its peak, and we simply haven’t seen the full version since Tommy John.
The first four months of 2025 were discouraging. His four-seamer lacked precision up in the zone and the changeup feel was inconsistent. But the final two months offered a genuinely encouraging shift: the changeup became a larger part of the arsenal, which freed up the heater, and his SwStr rate climbed from sub-10% back to 13-14%. He still needs to locate the sinker further inside to RHB, and the breakers haven’t returned to pre-injury form. But the late-season trend is real.
There’s also a defensive upgrade worth noting. Xavier Edwards shifted from short to second, and Otto Lopez provides a significant improvement at shortstop. For a pitcher who generates as many grounders as Sandy does, that matters. I’ve moved him up to around SP35 this offseason. It feels strange to have been cautious about “my guy.” It does, but those final two months gave me enough.
Quick Take: Sandy’s final two months showed legitimate four-seamer and changeup life, with a defensive upgrade supporting his ground-ball profile. He sits around SP35 with a realistic path back toward the top 25 if the gains hold.
27. Framber Valdez (DET, LHP)
Hello, old…friend. Framber’s 2024 and 2025 were complete opposites, maintaining his reputation as a frustrating arm to project for a full year. 2024 was rough until he found his elite curveball and had a Top 5 SP run to save his season in the second half, while 2025 picked up where he left off through July with a 2.62 ERA, and 1.11 WHIP, until destroying that trust with a 6.05 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in his final ten games. Because of that curveball? Why yes, because of that curveball. It went from a 68% strike rate to roughly 55%, while dropping its SwStr as he turned and displayed his second face.
I could go on about Valdez’s arsenal, including a sinker that ranks among the best in baseball against LHB (5.65 PLV with a 24% ICR!), and routinely prays to Koufax against RHB + a changeup that can be a devastating #2 to mask the sinker but his feel for it fluctuates like appearances of Springfield residents when Homer is up to his old antics. I could also discuss the highly suspect moment of intentionally hitting his catcher in the chest protector, or if the Tigers’ defense is prepared for an onslaught of groundballs. It’s all truly dependent on Framber’s feel for the curveball and at this point, I’m willing to say he will and he won’t. So yes, I’m going to do the ole “let’s average the two seasons” that I hate so much, which returns a productive volume arm for roto leagues, and an undulating menace in H2H leagues, challenging your ability to keep a cool head. Logically, he’s a solid play. Emotionally, be prepared.
Quick Take: Framber’s curveball was the savior of 2024 and the destroyer of 2025. It’s generally safe to expect Valdez to provide productive volume across six full months, while a granular lens will fragment a cohesive line of quality into a few wide plateaus and valleys. Let’s hope the hook is excellent early on and stays that way for at least four months.
Tier 6 – Cherry Bomb
28. Michael King (SDP, RHP)
I don’t know what to do. On one hand, I absolutely adore the King we saw in 2024 + what we saw in 2025 before he slept weird on his shoulder. Once he overcame his lost sweeper feel, his command was legit for five straight months, featuring front-hip sinkers to LHB, fastballs up, changeups away, and deadly sweepers to RHB. The brief time we saw him in 2025 showcased absurd sinkers to RHB at times (April was a wacky time in San Diego and those balls were MOVING) and if not for a freak injury, I think we’d be considering King as a volume arm akin to Webb.
That said, I do question if King is consistent enough. Yes, I love the ceiling of his command, though he does fight with himself from time-to-time (still with the sweeper to RHB!), creating a touch more WHIP volatility than I’d like to see, and his fastball approach doesn’t always land against LHB – the four-seamer struggled plenty last season. The changeup is filthy n all, but I can’t say I like seeing 23% sinkers at 48% ICR (why is he elevating it? The pitch has 2-3″ of vert!), with a four-seamer that fails to get strikes and was demolished when it did.
The question against LHB. Will he save his four-seamer for two-strikes as a whiff pitch with its surprise vert? I love his inside sinker that returned a stupid amount of called strikes, why not use that and a down-and-away sinker to mask the changeup, missing under the zone at times to amplify the effect? Just don’t place it above the lower third or it’ll get hit. Feature some backdoor sweepers for called strikes and you’ve got a stew cooking.
If King is healthy, I really trust the fella. I have to wonder if he truly is healthy and can be for a full season, and with the slight volatility + health concerns (even if it were a weird one!), I’m not as high on King as I initially thought I’d be. It just doesn’t feel right trust him to be a stable SP #3 for the year, though it could fall right into your lap when all is said and done.
Quick Take: The command is elite when he’s cooking, but will he have it out of the gate? And will he be able to throw 170+ frames? The upside is there, especially if he makes some tweaks to his LHB approach, and I’d love to chase it if I can grab him after securing higher floor arms for the season.
29. Dylan Cease (TOR, RHP)
There are a few players I generally avoid in fantasy leagues simply because I don’t believe I’ll ever truly feel confident in what they do. Cease is one of those arms. He throws high stuff four-seamers and sliders, earns plenty of whiffs, has started without interruption since 2019 and compiled all the strikeouts. And yet, he’s just a two-pitch pitcher at the end of the day, which turns him into a volatile, inefficient arm, who is hyper reliant on out-of-zone swings on both his fastball and slider, and if either pitch isn’t getting strikes on a given day, it’ll be pain. Sometimes that pain lasts for most of the season, sometimes it gets shadowed by stretches of dominance. I personally want to avoid flipping the coin each time I slot him into my lineup on a given night and if you’re okay with that, go for it.
There’s a thought that Cease moving to Toronto will shift things and it’s entirely possible. The Padres have a phenomenal pitching coach in Ruben Niebla, but players get their tips and tweaks in many ways and there are times specific coaches work better with different pitchers. I will note that Cease has tried it all – curves, sweepers, sinkers, changeups, and cutters (he should try the latter more but that’s just me) – and his command is ultimately the biggest factor. For a two-pitch arm, Gausman is a prime showcase of the strike rates you need to earn to make it work: 70%+ on the fastball. It’s that simple – just throw more fastballs for strikes and things can be better, creating more efficiency to go deeper into starts with shorter at-bats and fewer walks. Yes, there will be some damage associated with it, absolutely, but let’s start there and move forward. Or he can toe the tightrope beautifully and be like Nola, powering up in even years. Just don’t have a horrific set of ratios again, alright?
Quick Take: Cease is who he is – fastball/slider with questionable control and a whole lot of volatility. The volume will be there, likely creating another 200+ strikeout season, but at what cost? Even a dominant April wouldn’t convince me he could hold it throughout the rest of the year unless it paired with something new he could carry for five more months. That’s not the haze I like to draft, though I don’t blame you for chasing it.
30. Jesús Luzardo (PHI, LHP)
Sinkers inside to LHB is great. Four-seamer is still rough. Sweeper helps, changeup is still solid to RHB, and he’s destined for peaks and valleys every season. Injury history does him few favors, though. Riskier than it looks.
For some reason, the Marlins don’t like their southpaws throwing sinkers inside to LHB, and I was thrilled to see the Phillies take care of it. The sinker addition allowed his four-seamer to return 13% SwStr to LHB after failing to eclipse a 7% clip since 2020. The new sweeper was as effective as the old slider, too, and his changeup is still an effective offering to RHB. It’s all great except for one major problem with Luzardo’s approach that will continue to haunt him: His four-seamer to RHB is terrible. It’s the root of his volatility and while the sweeper over slider helps the problem (his slider is easier to hit when he made mistakes with it over the plate), the core problem remains: It’s a deadzone four-seamer at 96/97 mph that looks like 94/95 mph with Luzardo’s horrific extension. The pitch allowed 8 HR to RHB alone last year – equal to all other pitches combined against LHB and RHB, including the same four-seamer to LHB. Rough.
It’s why Luzardo has a history of being a volatile arm. As much as I want to say “He was a stud outside of two games where he allowed 20 ER! And he might have been tipping!”, Luzardo has always been this way. Stud outings followed by a blowup that ensures the ERA doesn’t fall under 3.00. Luzardo’s hit rates are also consistently elevated due to his consistent unravelling and I heavily suggest looking past the HOTEL of a high BABIP and LOB rate. There’s more at play here (The BABIP has always been high despite decent ICR marks and his LOB Rate looks absurdly unlucky at sub 70% last year, but then you see he’s had a LOB rate under 70% more than not, and just once in five seasons did he hold a LOB rate above 72%. It’s a problem.).
Volatility comes in multiple forms. His start-to-start performance, his inning-to-inning performance (the aforementioned unravelling), but also in health. Luzardo has a storied track record of hitting the IL and the short term does look favorable of pitching 32 games in two of his last three seasons, but it would be unwise to believe he doesn’t have injury risk.
Luzardo should be a benefit to 12-teamers when he’s the mound, more as a Cherry Bomb than as a HIPSTER, though his volatility through both quality and health have me electing others around his ADP. He’s the second coming of The Great Undulator and I like to preserve my mental health. If I can grab him as an SP #4/#5, I’m game, but I highly doubt that’ll happen.
Quick Take: Luzardo’s 2025 was bliss save for two horrendous starts of 12 ER and 8 ER, but I don’t suggest ignoring those outings, acting as though the true Luzardo is removed from devastating volatility. The new sinker approach to LHB and shift to a sweeper are both beneficial changes, but the four-seamer is still a major liability that is sure to keep both his hit rate and your blood pressure up. He’s a Cherry Bomb with a great strikeout rate. I should have just written that.
Tier 7 – Holly
31. Kevin Gausman (TOR, RHP)
Gausman impressed me in 2025. After three straight seasons of a ~1.20 WHIP, he managed to lose a full hit per nine lasst season while bringing his walk rate down to nearly 6%. His splitter gained two inches of drop and reclaimed the lost swings on to LHB (career low 46% in 2024 –> 52% last year) and his four-seamer was pretty much the same pitch it’s always been, though he did regain a touch of velocity and keep the ball down more than ever, featuring 99th percentile loLoc on the pitch at a staggering 40% clip. He was a better version than his 2024 self, but sadly, I don’t think he’ll get to shmooze with 30% strikeout rates with a cocktail in his hand and dastardly smirk. His BABIP was as favorable as ever, with a -12 hit luck on his four-seamer (lowest of his career, ranging from +8 to +35 in the past three seasons). That’s truly the only stat that separates Gausman from a high 3s ERA and a 1.20 WHIP for another season, even if the strikeouts are around 24% again, and his poor 72% LOB rate positively regresses. It’s all about the hits.
I’m not exactly sure what to make of the Blue Jays’ defense at the moment (it’s kinda neutral?), and it has me thinking we’re going to go through the normal motions with Gausman this year. He’s a workhorse, which will give you 175+ strikeouts in all likelihood with a fair number of Wins, but the ERA and WHIP marks are going to fluctuate based on the effectiveness of his splitter, how often his fastball can get away with called strikes down, and the good graces of Koufax. He’s a steady ‘Holly” and that’s fine with me.
Quick Take: You’re chasing good volume with Gausman. The four-seamer still gets hit, and his splitter is sure to disappear at times throughout the season, but as long as you can withstand the peaks and valleys, the end result should be a productive one for fantasy managers.
32. Trevor Rogers (BAL, LHP)
Rogers is the perfect example of a pitcher that doesn’t make enough sense for me to draft him. Yes, it means I could be missing out on another great season, it also means that I’m taking myself out of the way of a potential bust pick. After all, there are so many signs that 2025 shouldn’t have gone the way it did, and let’s start with the shallow marks: A stupid 5.7 H/9 that only exists due to a small sample of 18 starts (he should be around 7-8 H/9!), A miniscule 9% HR/FB rate (our flyballs DON’T include pop-ups!), a .228 BABIP (kinda redudnant with the H/9), and an 84% LOB rate (which you’d expect from a 1.81 ERA).
Thing is, his repertoire wasn’t vastly different from what we’ve seen in the past. It’s the same changeup, a slider that was good but not elite, a sinker to LHB that was serviceable, and a four-seamer with the same velocity and shape. It doesn’t make sense.
I apologize, I didn’t tell you the whole story. That four-seamer is the culprit of this enigma and I’ll leave it up to you if you think it’s believable. Rogers shifted away from the low fastball and favored the top of the zone far more than in previous seasons, resulting in more flyballs (lower BABIP), but more importantly, tunnelling more effectively with his changeup to RHB. This shift resulted in, wait for it, 100th percentile Hitter Performance (-23.4 worse than expected, average is 2.0), and 99th percentile Hit Luck of -24. That’s twenty-four fewer hits than expected based on the pitch’s attributes and locations, context dependent. Extremes that are not wise to latch onto, especially when rendered in fewer starts relative to the rest of the field.
At the baseline, we can all accept that Rogers should have worse results on his four-seamer if he had a larger sample in 2025. But how much worse? Well, let’s also take into account that Rogers’ massive boon in hiLoc% and ability to separate his four-seamer and changeup north/south regularly is not a guarantee. He was a man in rhythm for three months with Koufax on his side. Not only should the legendary southpaw look elsewhere this year, but Rogers is unlikely to have the same peak ability, too.
I still see Rogers as a helpful arm. He has all the opportunity you’d want with 2025 on his resume of what he can be like, especially with the higher strike rates than any season prior. I also trust the 2026 Orioles coaching to have more awareness of tweaks than that of the 2021 Marlins, which could mean a cutter or improved sweeper takes hold in time. It’s not all doom and gloom here.
This is all to say that I’m not going to reach for Rogers in drafts and I expect him to go to a manager more trusting in his sparkling 2025 campaign. However, if I’m able to draft him as my #4, I’m all for it.
Quick Take: Rogers’ fastball vastly overperformed in 2025, though his ability to locate the pitch above his changeup consistently is a sign of production even with an extra hit or two across a start. Don’t draft him over safer options, but consider him when you’ve already locked in four starters you trust.
33. Tatsuya Imai (HOU, RHP)
Ah yes, the lovely moment where I need to provide a review for a pitcher who has never pitched in the MLB. There is so much guesswork that goes into assessing a guy like Imai, so let me outline the information we’re working with.
Go watch Lance Brozdowski’s breakdown of Imai. He normally sits 93-96 mph with the ability to push it 98-100 when he needs it, using a “reverse” slider as his main secondary, which has slight arm-side horizontal movement instead of the typical glove-side break, and a trio of different splitter grips to earn whiffs. That four-seamer comes with an incredibly flat attack angle that had Eno Sarris comparing him to a harder-throwing Joe Ryan, and that will come down to Imai’s ability to get the heater up-stairs consistently.
He’s been a workhorse in Japan and I expect the Astros to treat him as such during the season…with a six-man rotation. That can be a bummer, though I do believe it’ll raise the chances of Imai staying healthy through the season and the way we’ve outlined the absurd injury risks for simply being a starting pitcher, we’ll take 28 starts of near six frames per inning, aiming for 165 frames total for the season. Those frames shouldn’t hurt you with a low WHIP, a strikeout per inning, and a decent ERA with a ceiling for sparkling ratios, on a winning team. That sounds pretty dang safe to me. But the contract! ~$60 Million for three years? Well, with an opt-out after the first and let me tell you, I’d be shocked if Imai doesn’t exercise his option. It’s a classic “bet on myself” deal and I believe the Astros got a massive discount. Let’s not forget that Imai could continue developing, with his 28th birthday arriving in May.
Quick Take: Imai looks like a safe starter to snag in the middle rounds of drafts. His four-seamer is ultra flat like Joe Ryan’s at a harder velocity, with the only question being if he’ll adapt and command it well enough to soar. The slider and splitter are both whiff pitches, with the former acting a proper companion to both RHB and LHB, and the Astros are sure to let him go deep into games after an initial grace period of a few starts given the high likelihood of exercising his opt-out clause. I’m so down for this.
34. Nolan McLean (NYM, RHP)
Some see McLean as the next Logan Webb, and there’s part of me that believes it, simply because his sinker to RHB is fantastic. It’s a 96 mph pitch he lands down-and-in that acts as a true sinker at 1″ of vert. That’s the good stuff. The reason I don’t believe McLean is the next Webb is everything else – the sweeper and curveball have solid movement, but he doesn’t locate them effectively (leading to a sub 10% SwStr on the sweeper to RHB?!), the changeup feel is not there yet to LHB, and his four-seamer should only be saved as a surprise two-strike pitch upstairs, not a foundational offering.
In short, McLean has the profile of a sinker/sweeper arm with a low arm angle and the toolset to effectively silence RHB. But what is his plan to LHB? Y’all know the correct answer if you’ve read me enough, and I actually believe it could be what we see in 2026: A cutter. McLean featured the 91 mph pitch 13% to LHB last season and I don’t see why it wouldn’t become more of a focus in 2026 given the failures of his four-seamer and sinker to LHB.
The other question is control. McLean’s sub 9% walk rate would be higher if he didn’t strike out 30% of the batters he faced, or allow an unsustainable 6.4 hits-per-nine. His strike rates suggest more walks are coming for the recently converted pitcher-from-shortstop and given his limited lifetime experience on the bump, it should be no shock that control is an issue.
All of that said, McLean’s foundation of a legit drop sinker at 96 mph with excellent movement on his sweeper and curve + intent to go up with four-seamers for punchouts + developing change and cutter speaks to a pitcher who can be that workhorse. 2026 may feature McLean exhibiting true AGA talent as he takes a step forward, and punishes the doubters who saw his eight-game sample and labeled him as a fluke of data.
I’m not one of those doubters, though I can’t sit here and tell you McLean will make the right tweaks to his mix while improving his control and feel of his arsenal. At the very least, McLean should flirt with six innings with beneficial production consistently across 2026. That’s fine with me.
Quick Take: There’s a lot of hype around McLean after a 30% strikeout rate and glistening ratios in his brief eight-game showcase to end 2025. Without an overpowering four-seamer, coupled with an ineffective approach to LHB, and questions about his arsenal feel, I worry there is a lower floor than the results outline. The sinker and breakers + the possibility of a cutter affinity is enough for me to comfortably take McLean in drafts, just not inside the Top 30 SP.
35. Bubba Chandler (PIT, RHP)
I swear, the Pirates better not deny us even more time of the Bubba experience. His four-seamer doesn’t have the greatest movement, but the velocity and command are elite. The stellar foundation sits 98/99 mph and he pounds the top of the zone with confidence, leaning into its flat 1.2 HAVAA at nearly 17″ of vert and decent horizontal that creates 89th percentile total four-seamer break. That’s why we’re all hyped about the fella. It’s a better heater than all of the other young arms save for Misiorowski (better than Burns even!) and Chandler has better command of his. So what’s the downside? Well, there are many questions.
First, what will his volume look like? He doesn’t have the same “if healthy” volume floor as the Pirates are likely going to keep him around 140-150 IP in his first full season. It may lead to getting pulled before 80 pitches often, making it hard for him to find the sixth inning as frequently as his peers. Second, I still need to see more from the rest of his arsenal. He features an 89 mph gyro slider (and an 85 mph curveball…with the same movement save for four more inches of drop?!) that wasn’t dotted down-and-away as I expected given his phenomenal four-seamer feel. It was still highly successful paired with the four-seamer and returned 70% strikes across its 32% usage to RHB, but just 12% whiffs at a 23% whiff rate (that’s awfully low). He should get more whiffs with it, but that’s the road of wishcasting and I’m trying not to do that. I wish there was a deeper RHB approach instead of mostly fastball/slider (wait, where’s a sinker? I thought this was the Pirates?!) but he was limited and we’ll likely see it expanded in 2026.
Against LHB, the changeup takes the stage to support the heater, and like the slider, it’s not quite there yet. There’s fantastic fade at 92 mph – especially relative to the four-seamer – but he gets on the side of the ball a bit too often, falling off the side of the mound on delivery, making it float away from the desired spot. It’s double-plus when executed, but I want a consistent #2 pitch, not a volatile #1/#3.
I’m stoked to watch more. He’s going to be different from last season, probably with a little less velocity and your standard slipping on the Shag Rug, but make no mistake, this isn’t Jobe 2.0. Chandler’s four-seamer is too big to fail and I’d bank on development far more than failure.
Quick Take: Chandler is a talented arm with a massive fastball he attacks the zone without fear. The slider and changeup are not quite as refined, but are still effective even in their present forms, and I’d expect growth somewhere across the full arsenal as he starts out of the gate for the Pirates. If he were to add a cutter and sinker to the mix to aid against LHB and RHB, respectively, the sky’s the limit.
36. Trey Yesavage (TOR, RHP)
I keep oscillating between what I want to do with Yesavage. On one hand, the Jays trust him to travel deep into games, his splitter is more advanced than most, his four-seamer has 100th percentile vert at 19″, and his slider separates him from becoming the dreaded “two-pitch pitcher”. However, that 94/95 mph four-seamer also has a 99th percentile arm angle at 63 degrees, which creates an awfully steep HAVAA of 0.2 (wow), and reduces the impact of his elite vert. It’s why the pitch returns well under a 10% SwStr rate. In addition, his slider isn’t anything special, either. It has minimal break at 88/89 mph and I wonder if he has good enough feel for it to turn it into a reliable offering when he doesn’t want to lean into the splitter to LHB. His splitter benefits from the high arm angle, though, amplifying its deception off the four-seamer – the arm action creates a longer tunnel between the heater and splitter, creating the steepest splitter in all of baseball – a brilliant attribute for a pitch landing low.
It’s a unique approach and one that I wish we had more time understanding before drafts this year. I’m not confident that the slider is too good, and I question if Yesavage can limit HRs allowed off the four-seamer when batters guess correctly upstairs. In addition, splitters are, well, splitters, which creates more volatility than any other pitch type. This may create a high walk rate and less efficiency than we saw throughout the playoffs.
My gut tells me this should work. I’ve come to adore the juxtaposition of high vert fastball and absurdly steep splitter and I want to believe his slider can be a trusted pitch to earn strikes against LHB, or at the very least, a constant weapon against RHB. I don’t see the Jays slowing him down across the season – they pushed him last year and Bieber is already missing time, after all – and it makes Yesavage one of the surprisingly safe options among the rest of the “Hype 7” sophomore studs.
Quick Take: Despite my hesitations to embrace his ultra-steep four-seamer upstairs, Yesavage’s unique attack with a devastating splitter and stabilizing slider has me more intrigued than I originally expected to be. I wish I had more clarity about his control and hittability to help determine his WHIP floor – is it 1.30+ or closer to 1.25? – but I’d be shocked if we found ourselves dropping Yesavage across what should be a workhorse season. That’s good for an SP #4 in my book.
37. Cade Horton (CHC, RHP)
I go back and forth with Cade Horton. On one hand, he looks setup to be a 180 IP workhorse with a wide array, above average command, 95+ mph velocity, and a whiff pitch for each handedness. However, he doesn’t locate his cut four-seamer well and despite the 20% SwStr on his sweeper + 23% on his changeup to their respective batters, he fanned just 20% of batters in 2025. Weird.
Mostly, it’s due to his inefficiency with his sweeper to RHB in two-strike counts. Its 17% putaway rate sticks out with a lower-than-expected clip (20%+ would be average, let alone one with its high SwStr rate) and I expect it to normalize in the year ahead. The changeup also wasn’t quite as effective as we’d like against LHB with a sub 60% strike rate, which forced Horton to end at-bats before possible punchouts via four-seamers or curveballs. Again, these improvements are common in a second year in the majors.
I like Horton for the year ahead, as long as it comes without expectations of a major breakout campaign. There’s too much needed growth in his four-seamer precision and execution with his secondaries in two-strike counts to depend on a surge of strikeouts and maintaining the good graces of Koufax is a tough task. (his skills profile out to more of an 8 hits-per-nine, not the 7.2 mark of 2025). Even if he doesn’t change much and has a few more grounders sneak past, Horton’s ability to throw strikes and manipulate the baseball will have him finding the sixth inning fairly often, with pitch counts above 90 consistently. I’m excited to see how he develops.
Quick Take: Horton doesn’t have the electricity of his sophomore peers, but he has them beat in volume and control, while maintaining some strikeout upside via his secondaries and early count execution. If he’s able to find precision in his changeup and four-seamer, he can take his grounded floor and flirt with AGA.
Tier 8 – Cherry Bomb But Moreso
38. Robbie Ray (SFG, LHP)
The man loves his fastball and I do too. It has legit vert at 94+ mph and Robbie knows how to locate the dang thing upstairs at will. I just wish he also had such faith in his slider, curve, and changeup, which show up and stick around at random times like the one fly that you can’t fathom how it got into the room. Honey, IT’S BACK! How did it get here?! Despite their infrequency, all of Ray’s pitches miss bats and that’s a lovely thing. The fastball and slider take the reins against LHB, while the changeup and curve find their time against RHB, though they have a tough time finding strikes as much as the other two, creating the anxiety that feels so close to not existing.
Have you watched any of his outings? They can be absolutely maddening at times, stuck in a purgatory filled with grunt after grunt of fastballs going upstairs and getting fouled off or taken for a ball. Please, just throw a slider! Then he does. It’s great! It’s a whiff! THANK YOU. Then he throws it again…for a ball. Now back to the fastballs. Noooooooo. This experience happened a fair amount in the first half, but he always found a way around it to give us a lovely ERA and plenty of strikeouts – Ray held a 2.85 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 26% K rate across his first 24 starts – but it suddenly collapsed down the stretch with just two games under 3 ER in his final eight outings. Yikes. His barely sub 10% walk rate during the lovely stretch represented the precarious nature of his success and entering the 2026 season, I don’t want to wishcast that everything is okay. It’s not okay. I have no idea if Ray has improved upon his changeup or if he can feature more sliders for strikes to LHB. Maybe the sinker will return? Or maybe it’ll be a 1.25+ WHIP with too many inefficient starts for us to confidently start him on a given night.
I have Ray ranked before “The Cliff” as I expect him to be worth the hold throughout the season. That said, as much as I want to believe in his first four months and throw away the poor stretch to end the year, it displayed Ray’s path toward the waiver wire that I’m trying to avoid as much as possible across the first four SPs I draft. He’s a bit of a gamble and if you’re into that sort of thing, then he’s your guy.
Quick Take: I’m surprised how down I am on Ray after he was so productive across the first four months of the season, but I can’t deny his inability to throw consistent strikes with his secondaries. His late decline was not a huge surprise after walking so many and getting away with it early on, and even with the upside of improving his strike rate and replicating his early success, the high volatility risk has me favoring his peers in the same tier.
39. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX, RHP)
The dude just had a season of a 1.73 ERA across 130 innings. No, we should not treat Eovaldi like Reynaldo Lopez 2.0 after his sparkling 2024 season, this was the sixth straight season of a sub 4.00 ERA and his third straight of a sub 1.15 WHIP and 23%+ strikeout rate. Sure, the injury question is concerning. I get that! He had a triceps injury, a shoulder injury, and now had offseason surgery for a sports hernia. The guy is not granting any suggestions that he’ll survive for 30+ starts in 2026. But they will be productive starts. His improved his curveball feel last year and the pitch was absolutely brilliant to both LHB and RHB, perfecting the final piece of his four-pitch puzzle. Eovaldi is a productive, high-floor Holly and he’s healthy at the moment. So go draft him and worry about the IL stint later instead of selecting a young starter who is fighting for a roster spot and will likely give you stress as a HIPSTER.
Quick Take: Eovaldi is safe, not in his volume, but in his quality. I love drafting pitchers who squeeze high production out of the time they spend on the field and Eovaldi has proven himself a steady rock for 12-teamers for years. He’s a Holly who improved his curveball drastically in 2025 and should make managers feel smart for drafting him once April arrives.
40. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL, RHP)
Sigh. Misiorowski. The fella with 99th percentile extension, velocity, and HAVAA on his four-seamer returned a 10.5% SwStr with the pitch to RHB last season. Wait, that seems low. Right?! The “slider” (which is pretty much a cutter at 94 mph as a gyro slider but with 6″ less drop than you’d want), also had a shockingly low 11% SwStr rate to RHB, and his two-plane curve held a 10% SwStr rate. And despite all of this, Jay Mis had a 32% strikeout clip + his ICR was bliss across all three pitches to RHB.
LHB are the opposite. High ICR on the heater but a 21% SwStr rate as their swing rates climbed five points, and I think the reason is clear: They saw 15% sliders with 26% curves + changeups, while RHB saw just 13% non-fastball/slider. It meant that batters geared up for 99 mph, and when they saw the 94 mph slider, it was close enough both in velocity and location that they could get wood on it. Not the best contact, but not a whiff. Get that dang thing down, Mis! LHB had larger velocity gaps to prepare for, which meant they couldn’t adjust as effectively, but when they did hunt correctly, they saw a greater reward.
It really shouldn’t be that easy to hit off this guy the real issue is the walk rate at 11%, which is a product of Misiorowski losing feel at random moments. He’s consistently throwing strikes at a rate that speaks to a far better walk rate (all three offerings comfortably in the zone and above 60% strikes to both handed batters), but you don’t get to spread those strikes out evenly across a start. It just takes a couple of lost at-bats to raise that mark.
His lanky nature does suggest volatility and despite my belief that Misiorowski will get better in the year ahead, yes, he’ll have Cherry Bomb tendencies. There’s also his health to worry about, too, and as much as I watch this kid and see the best stuff in baseball, I also struggle to envision 170 innings, which would require health and efficiency.
So I’m torn. If he can lower his slider to get greater pitch separation with his four-seamer (and maybe throw more curves to RHB?), and figure out the adjustments he needs to make mid-batter to get the walk rates down, he’ll become a stud. He’s already a stud, really. I also understand he shouldn’t be drafted to be that reliable #2 every week, which has me pushing him down further than I like. If you’re someone who enjoys fantasy baseball to roster the players you get stoked to watch, Jay Mis is your guy. If they’re just numbers on a spreadsheet, maybe don’t take the gamble.
Quick Take: He’s the most electric young arm out there and we’re still in the dark about his future. There’s injury concerns + inefficiency that has his projected volume lower than his peers, while the strikeout ability is so apparent and requires a small tweak to unlock against RHB for a potential 35%+ strikeout rate. It’s up to you if you want to chase the fun.
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garrett CrochetT1 | BOS | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | PIT | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 3 | Tarik Skubal | DET | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 4 | Bryan WooT2 | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Ratio Focused | - |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 6 | Max Fried | NYY | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 7 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 9 | Hunter Greene | CIN | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 10 | Hunter Brown | HOU | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 11 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 12 | Logan WebbT3 | SF | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 13 | Joe Ryan | MIN | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 14 | Freddy Peralta | NYM | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | +2 |
| 15 | Jacob deGromT4 | TEX | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +3 |
| 16 | Cole Ragans | KC | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -2 |
| 17 | George Kirby | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts Injury Risk | -2 |
| 18 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +1 |
| 19 | Chris Sale | ATL | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +1 |
| 20 | Kyle BradishT5 | BAL | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -3 |
| 21 | Eury Pérez | MIA | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 22 | Nick Pivetta | SD | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 23 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 24 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | Ace Potential Ratio Focused | -1 |
| 25 | Cam Schlittler | NYY | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | - |
| 26 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 27 | Framber Valdez | DET | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 28 | Michael KingT6 | SD | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 29 | Dylan Cease | TOR | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 30 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +12 |
| 31 | Kevin GausmanT7 | TOR | Holly Quality Starts | +5 |
| 32 | Trevor Rogers | BAL | Holly Quality Starts | +16 |
| 33 | Tatsuya Imai | HOU | Holly Quality Starts | +1 |
| 34 | Nolan McLean | NYM | Holly Wins Bonus | +1 |
| 35 | Bubba Chandler | PIT | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 36 | Trey Yesavage | TOR | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 37 | Cade Horton | CHC | Holly Wins Bonus | +10 |
| 38 | Robbie RayT8 | SF | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | +6 |
| 39 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | Ace Potential Quality Starts Injury Risk | +4 |
| 40 | Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -8 |
| 41 | Chase Burns | CIN | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -10 |
| 42 | Shane McClanahanT9 | TB | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -5 |
| 43 | Kris Bubic | KC | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +21 |
| 44 | Blake Snell | LAD | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -11 |
| 45 | Bryce MillerT10 | SEA | Holly Ratio Focused | +7 |
| 46 | Edward Cabrera | CHC | Holly Wins Bonus | -8 |
| 47 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | Holly Quality Starts | -8 |
| 48 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | Ace Potential Ratio Focused | -3 |
| 49 | Aaron Nola | PHI | Holly Quality Starts | +11 |
| 50 | MacKenzie GoreT11 | TEX | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | - |
| 51 | Emmet Sheehan | LAD | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | - |
| 52 | Ryan Weathers | NYY | Frizzle Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +2 |
| 53 | Nick LodoloT12 | CIN | Holly Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 54 | Sonny Gray | BOS | Holly Wins Bonus | -5 |
| 55 | Ranger Suarez | BOS | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 56 | Noah Cameron | KC | Holly Ratio Focused | - |
| 57 | Gavin Williams | CLE | Holly Strikeout Upside | - |
| 58 | Shane Baz | BAL | Holly Strikeout Upside Team Context Effect | -5 |
| 59 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | Holly Ratio Focused | -1 |
| 60 | Joe Musgrove | SD | Holly Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +2 |
| 61 | Zac Gallen | ARI | Holly Quality Starts | +9 |
| 62 | Brandon WoodruffT13 | MIL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -34 |
| 63 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -2 |
| 64 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | Ace Potential Quality Starts Injury Risk | -1 |
| 65 | Carlos Rodón | NYY | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 66 | Jared Jones | PIT | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +UR |
| 67 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -1 |
| 68 | Shane Bieber | TOR | Ace Potential Quality Starts Injury Risk | -9 |
| 69 | Matthew BoydT14 | CHC | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 70 | Luis Castillo | SEA | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 71 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 72 | Zach Eflin | BAL | Toby Quality Starts | - |
| 73 | Andrew PainterT15 | PHI | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 74 | Spencer Strider | ATL | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 75 | Logan Henderson | MIL | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 76 | Robby Snelling | MIA | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 77 | Braxton Ashcraft | PIT | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 78 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | Toby Hipster Wins Bonus | -3 |
| 79 | Jack Flaherty | DET | Hipster Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -5 |
| 80 | Kodai SengaT16 | NYM | Toby Quality Starts Injury Risk | +UR |
| 81 | Joey Cantillo | CLE | Toby Quality Starts | -10 |
| 82 | Bailey Ober | MIN | Toby Quality Starts | -4 |
| 83 | Cody Ponce | TOR | Toby Quality Starts | +UR |
| 84 | Brayan Bello | BOS | Toby Quality Starts | -5 |
| 85 | Seth Lugo | KC | Toby Quality Starts | +UR |
| 86 | Landen Roupp | SF | Toby Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 87 | Tyler Mahle | SF | Toby Ratio Focused | -2 |
| 88 | Max Scherzer | TOR | Toby Wins Bonus | -2 |
| 89 | Quinn Priester | MIL | Toby Ratio Focused | -7 |
| 90 | Ryan Weiss | HOU | Toby Team Context Effect | +UR |
| 91 | Shane Smith | CWS | Toby Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 92 | Jack LeiterT17 | TEX | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 93 | Cristian Javier | HOU | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 94 | Zebby Matthews | MIN | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 95 | Mike Burrows | HOU | Frizzle Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 96 | Grant Holmes | ATL | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 97 | Grayson Rodriguez | LAA | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +UR |
| 98 | Spencer Arrighetti | HOU | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 99 | Jacob Lopez | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -7 | |
| 100 | Will Warren | NYY | Toby Wins Bonus | -5 |
Labels Legend
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
