Welcome to the ultimate guide to drafting Starting Pitchers for 2026 Fantasy Baseball. I’ve ranked the Top 400 (actually 430…) starting pitchers for the year ahead in an attempt to determine every SP who could help your fantasy teams this season.
However, before you scroll down to the Top 1-20, it’s incredibly important that you read this introduction. It highlights how I rank pitchers and why this is not a projection of the end of season Player Rater. It’s my strategy of how I draft pitchers, embracing the burn and churn nature of the game.
Remember, these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation. I’ve also added the Top 100 SP table at the bottom of this article.
For a table of the entire 400 SP (really 430!) and to read this article Ad-Free (or to simply support me for putting all of this together!), make sure to subscribe to PL+ or PL Pro where I have these rankings inside a massive Google Sheet, with my blurbs included. You can access the sheet inside our subscriber Discord.
To get the full context of these rankings, please make sure you…
Read The Notes
Tier 12 – Toby Upside 1 (Cont’d)
61. Zac Gallen (ARI, RHP)
Gallen is back with Arizona on a one-year deal to bet on himself and I’m kinda tempted to join him. The deathball is still very much a thing to both LHB and RHB, while his four-seamer is arguably the best called strike four-seamer in the majors. That said, it’s still a bit of a liability. The heater has a good amount of vert with cut-action, which harms him against RHB, and could be a weapon to jam LHB, but he instead leans away from the pitch, hoping to establish the tunnel for his changeup and curveball. It didn’t work well last year and I really think Gallen should try to nail the inside edge with the pitch moving forward.
Against RHB, he introduced a sinker midway through the season that was later abandoned and I’m not sure why he didn’t stick with it. Sure, it didn’t have a whole lot of ride and was hit decently hard when hit, but the thing had 1st percentile zone rate and 99th percentile O-Swing. Guys were chasing this thing all day and it earned strikes galore. Yes! This is cool! More of this!
If I were to give the most realistic path toward an improved Gallen, it’s truly for his changeup to find more strikes against LHB, and praying this is the season his slider can eclipse a 60% strike rate to RHB. That’s really it. The four-seamer is likely still going to get a ton of called strikes at the cost of getting hit harder than we like, his curveball will miss bats and propel a 24%+ strikeout rate (there’s no way he’s going under 20% with that hook), and he just needs a little extra push with his changeup and slider to get over the hump. Maybe even refinement of the ole cutter for LHB or the sinker to RHB. I’m down to take a shot and see how it goes, even if 2024 wasn’t so great either with its 1.26 WHIP (all rooted in fewer fastball strikes that led to more walks in both ’24 and ’25). Join me, and let’s be Gallen Gals together.
Quick Take: Yes, Gallen has increased his walks in his last two seasons and now the strikeout rate is the latest column to crumble in the temple of Gallen. There are small areas of improvement that would take Gallen from a waiver wire arm to an SP #3/#4 once again and even if we’re skeptical it’ll happen, he’s in a great spot in Arizona to produce right from the start. You’ll know generally early if this is going to work out, why not take a stab at it?
Tier 13 – Injury Stash 1
62. Brandon Woodruff (MIL, RHP)
We didn’t know what to expect from Woody after missing 2024 with shoulder surgery, and on the precipice of his return, he was delayed in his final tune-up after getting struck in the ankle by a comebacker. And here we are now, wondering not only if his two-tick drop in velocity is the new norm or if that will change (higher or lower), but also how much we should bake in his injury risk after hitting the IL again in September with a lat strain. He’s expected to be a full go for the spring, but who knows, really.
All of that aside, Woodruff was a stud for his 64 frames of 2025, boasting a 32% strikeout rate and blissful ratios, which is awfully shocking considering his fastball fell from 95+ mph to ~93 mph, and without a great breaker supporting him. His home park (yes, good for pitchers despite the HR rates) and easy schedule certainly propelled his success in the small sample, though Woodruff’s unique arsenal is the biggest catalyst. His attack is rooted in three fastballs – cutter, four-seamer, sinker – and despite terrible sinker movement, the pitch induced a ton of weak contact as batters tried to figure out how to deal with the high vert + cut-action of his four-seamer, merged with a cutter that adds movement in both directions at just 3-4 mph slower. In short, three heaters that look similar, all going different directions and speed differentiation.
It allowed Woodruff to lean into cutters and sinkers early (16 inches of pitch separation horizontally), then elevate four-seamers late. It was hilariously effective, with a 30%+ putaway rate and a 23% SwStr rate, which are absurd outliers among all four-seamers across baseball, suggesting obvious regression despite the velocity drop and small sample.
His attack to LHB is a little suspect, too. I’m surprised he doesn’t throw more cutters inside and instead features sinker/change with the heater once again saved for elevating late. I expect that sinker to get tagged a bit more, and his slowball’s near 70% strike rate is likely to fall a bit as well. I’m curious if he can adapt here.
Despite these shortcomings, Woodruff’s approach should work again in 2026, just not at the same levels. Paired with injury risk, I’m cautious chasing him as my SP #2 or even SP #3, though I’d gladly grab him as an SP #4. When he pitches, he’ll be helpful, but the risk/reward doesn’t tip in his favor as much as others inside the Top 30 SP.
Quick Take: While Woodruff is unlikely to have a 30%+ strikeout rate and glistening ratios for another season, his flavor of cut-fastballs with great control and a legit changeup allow him to boast a solid floor, even with his velocity dip and without the help of a small sample. Unfortunately, injuries have haunted Woodruff’s career, and a lat strain in September adds haze to his 2026 output even before the season begins. He’ll help your teams, but not at the same level and for an uncertain amount of time.
63. Gerrit Cole (NYY, RHP)
I’m optimistic about Cole, and let me explain why with one very specific, very correctable adjustment. In 2022, Cole used his slider as a two-strike weapon to LHB 65% of the time, producing a 27% put-away rate and 28% SwStr. When he returned in 2024, that usage cratered to 33% in two-strike counts, and the put-away rate fell to 12%. He lost the feel of throwing it down-and-in. The fix is straightforward: restore the slider to its two-strike role, lean into the cutter (a wonderful new addition), keep the four-seamer elevated, and use the sinker inside to RHB. The cutter gives him something he didn’t have before, a legitimate count pitch that frees the slider to be the finishing blow again.
The 7% walk rate was anomalous. The arm likely hurt. Tommy John, when pitchers aren’t rushed back (looking at you, Strider), tends to be a straightforward recovery for elite arms. A June return is realistic. Among all IL stashes, Cole is the one I’d target first.
Quick Take: Cole’s slider fell from a 27% put-away rate as a two-strike weapon in 2022 to 12% in his return, a deployment issue, not a stuff issue. With the cutter providing a new count pitch, a return to elite K rates is realistic. The top IL stash.
64. Zack Wheeler (PHI, RHP)
I’ll make this quick. Wheeler is dope and makes us feel dope. If he were fully healthy without question, he’d be in Tier 1. Sadly, Wheeler was diagnosed with mild Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, which is known to destroy careers, but his particular version of it is believed to have less effect than the version told in campfire stories. While I cannot tell you he will be 100% Wheeler when he does start, the fact that he has already announced his retirement at the end of the 2027 season tells me he is going to do everything in his power to get on the field and stay there, giving everything he has for these final two seasons. The current ETA is something around June 1st (we don’t really know, but it is highly unlikely to be in April) and Wheeler is part of the core four IL stashes to consider, along with Cole, Rodon, and Jones (Burnes/Steele are returning later, Snell isn’t drafted like a stash). Whenever you plan to go for one of them, the uncertainty about the effect of Wheeler’s surgery has me tussling, unsure if he’s the best choice of the lot. Go with your gut, all of them should be great.
Quick Take: Wheeler is a stud, but he’ll start the season on the IL recovering from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery. It’s unclear how much his quality will dampen post-surgery, though you should still consider him as a prime IL stash during your drafts, with a loose ETA of June 1st. I cannot envision a version of Wheeler that is detrimental to your teams once he returns to the mound.
65. Carlos Rodon (NYY, LHP)
The talent has never been the question with Rodón. The question is whether a bone spur procedure and a mid-May timeline (likely drifting later) disrupts the feel enough to matter.
I worry it does. Pitchers who enter the year on the IL with non-Tommy John ailments have a frustrating history of timelines pushing back and returns being bumpy. Rodón, who already fights his command, is exactly the type to suffer from a disrupted spring. And the changeup to RHB was inconsistent even when healthy. He’ll be productive when he’s back. I don’t doubt that. But 28-30% strikeout rates? That depends entirely on changeup and slider feel, and I wouldn’t bet on it.
At pick 200, I’m interested. At pick 140 with spring training hype, I’m out.
Quick Take: Mid-May bone spur return carries typical IL-start risks: timeline drift, disrupted feel, and a changeup that was already inconsistent to RHB. Value at pick 200, an overpay much earlier.
66. Jared Jones (PIT, RHP)
He’s already on the 60-day IL, which makes his earliest return May 25th, and we may see Jones return close to the date as he recovers from Internal Brace UCL surgery. We’ve already seen him throw a bullpen this spring and if you compare Jones and Chandler, Jones’ skillset is better. Whoa. Yeah. Don’t forget, his four-seamer was a Fan4+ darling, with a slider that missed far more bats than Chandler’s. Then there was a sinker getting introduced, a flirtation with more changeups, and I just love the guy. If he comes back around June 1st, that seems like a fantastic timeline for him to pitch four straight months through the end of the season, marking him as one of the premier IL stashes during your draft. It’s just that simple. Once you have your established starters, let yourself enjoy one of Cole, Jones, Wheeler, or Rodon. Don’t go too heavily into these guys – you’re going to need at least one if not multiple IL spot before they return and there is always risk that rehab doesn’t go according to plan or they don’t look the same (Strider) – but yes, I’m expecting Jones to be easily inside the Top 30 SP a week after he returns. Take that as you will.
Quick Take: He’s an elite talent when he’s on the mound, it’s just a matter of health. He can return as soon as May 25th from Internal Brace UCL surgery and you should have him circled as an IL stash among Wheeler, Cole, and Rodon.
67. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL, RHP)
Oh jeez. Is he healthy? Update: No, he is not. Schwellenbach will be on the 60-day IL to start the year with elbow inflammation, suggesting June at the earliest. Yikes. If he’s throwing regularly in spring training, do we still trust it? Mr. Crescendo made me a fan in 2024 with his wide arsenal with multiple whiff pitches, flat attack angle, great extension, and 96 mph heater. Then he decided to throw harder in 2025 and fractured his elbow in the process. That doesn’t sound great, at all, and the concept of Schwelly returning from said injury only to throw 97 mph again seems off, doesn’t it?
At the moment of writing this, we’re in the dark, save for a quote that “if everything goes as planned, I’ll be ready for spring training”. Take that as you will. As I always say, If there’s haze, he fades. You never say that. WELL MAYBE NOW I WILL. If he were going outside the top 125 picks, I’d be all for taking a chance and hoping he’s back to making regular starts without a hitch. His results may be a touch worse with lower velocity, which leads to his 100th percentile zone-rate fastball getting laced more than we’d like, but it may mean the cutter makes a grand return to soften the blow.
Like his teammate Sale, Schwellenbach is sure to help when he pitches for your squads. We simply don’t know when and I hate not having clarity.
Quick Take: In a normal year, Schwellenbach would be touted as a studly workhorse with a great heater, deep repertoire, and multiple strikeout offerings. Unfortunately, a fractured elbow due to his increased velocity makes it difficult to discern his quality in 2026. There’s an ace in here, but how much will we get?
68. Shane Bieber (TOR, RHP)
I was all gung-ho about Bieber following a stellar return from TJS in August where he looked like classic Bieber. A guy we could trust to go six innings consistently with a strikeout per inning and quality ratios. You know, a signature Holly. The legit slider was kicking at 85/86 mph, the huge two-plane curve was bonkers at 82/83 mph, and the command to elevate and use the msot of his 17″ of vert was legit. This was Bieber.
Annnnd I had forgotten about his TJS delay of fatigue in April last year. Following the season, Bieber took the Qualifier Offer despite looking to be set up for a major paypay. Why? Because it later came out that he had forearm fatigue. Oh no. Yeaaaaah. This isn’t to say that Bieber will miss significant time this year (or even all of it!), but he will be delayed and it’s unclear for how long. When Bieber does return, I expect him to be legit as an SP #2/#3 arm for you, though who knows for how much volume. At the very least, the production will help and I’m very much interested in drafting Bieber as an IL stash. Who knows, maybe he’s only going to miss a handful of weeks at the end of the day, and if it’s more, we move on. Just don’t go overpaying.
Quick Take: Bieber’s skills looked back to normal when returning from TJS, with precise breakers earning whiffs and well spotted heaters doing their part. Unfotunately, Bieber has been dealing with forearm fatigue and his season debut will be delayed. How long? We don’t know, but those innings we get from Bieber are highly like to be productive. It’s a gamble, and one I’d take if he falls to the later rounds as an IL stash.
Tier 14 – Toby Upside 2
69. Matthew Boyd (CHC, LHP)
Boyd Boyz, look at your man. The king of the SWATCH, the leader of the trend, the ace for staffs through his first twenty starts of a 2.20 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with a 23% strikeout rate as he went 11-3 through July 22nd. And then…you may want to close your eyes…Boyd held a 5.16 ERA, 1.25 WHIP with an 18% strikeout rate in his final eleven outings through the finish line. It was a nightmare. It sure was and there isn’t a whole lot to explain it.
I did plenty of digging and found two shifts. First, his four-seamer to LHB was deftly spotted inside in the first half of the year, but it leaked toward the middle of the plate in the second half, returning a horrible 60% ICR, turning Boyd from a flyball pitcher (low BABIP) to a ground ball pitcher, allowing burners to go through holes and add far more baserunners. Not good.
The second shift took some effort to unearth. Against RHB, Boyd allowed just nine walks off his changeup through July 22nd. However, in nearly half the games, he surrendered almost double the number of walks with the slowball – seventeen walks with the changeup in eleven games. It was a product of Boyd missing armside more than usual and it was another factor to more baserunners, which led to more runs.
Both of these negative trends can be reversed, though I will acknowledge that the initial domination was never truly sustainable. If you’d like to play the game of “somewhere in the middle”, go right ahead. At the very least, Boyd is not as rough as his final months, and I still see a fantastic changeup for RHB with a four-seamer that PLV loves above it, merged with a sweeper that kills LHB + a solid fastball approach that shouldn’t leak out so much next year. That should return another solid season for Boyd and I’m all for riding alongside him out of drafts.
Quick Take: The second half was rough due to a pair of failures with his four-seamer and changeup command. I don’t expect warts to go untreated, opening the door for another workhorse season of production on a great team. Manage your expectations, though – it’s unlikely he’ll have such a blissful first half again.
70. Luis Castillo (SEA, RHP)
I’ve been on the Castillo train since he debuted in 2017 (one of my first fangraphs articles was declaring my love for Castillo!) and as much as we want to look at his 2025 season and say “Well, I’ll be, ain’t this guy the rock that matches his nickname!”, I have to preach caution. His four-seamer’s velocity has dcline across four straight seasons. He lost over an inch of vert since 2023. His 5.4 of extension is the worst extension in all of baseball, more than two feet less than his teammate Logan Gilbert. His changeup and slider both dropped below a 60% strike rate – the first time ever for his slowball. The only reason those season-long marks look great is the elite four-seamer command he featured down his final two months, featuring the will of a man forcing himself to carry all seven grocery bags in one trip. I MUST. In fact, you may not remember that Castillo had a 3.94 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on September
Quick Take: quick blurb
71. Merrill Kelly (ARI, RHP)
Ah yes, Merrill. The poster child for the pitcher your dad will consistently pick in drafts as you snicker across the table, favoring a younger, high strikeout rate arm, only to make you look foolish in September as your HIPSTER empties your household’s Aspirin and Kelly cruises to another 180 innings of production. Going back to Arizona is only a positive, ensuring he’s in a comfortable environment to keep doing what he does: Throwing effective changeups to both LHB and RHB and working four-seamers, sinkers, cutters, and breakers to fill in the holes. There’s value knowing you’re getting 90+ pitches from the very first start of the year, and with another double-digit Win season likely on the horizon, you’re unlikely to drop Kelly all season with a decent WHIP and fine ERA, even if his four-seamers allow more hits this time around.
Quick Take: Kelly is a strong pick in the mid-to-late rounds. Beneficial volume is always a winner and Kelly’s ability to work around the zone with multiple pitches, throw strikes, and have a putaway offering to both LHB and RHB should make him an asset for another year.
72. Zach Eflin (BAL, RHP)
I think Eflin is a great value play for 2026. He’s endured back injuries across his career and finally did something about it last year, getting surgery in November and giving us one of those wonderful BEST SHAPE OF HIS LIFE quotes after. A healthy Eflin has given us seasons like his phenomenal 2023, and 2026 could bring another where he puts his full arsenal on display. Four-seamers saved for punchouts, sinkers hitting corners, cutters and curves moving with grace, sweepers to take down RHB, and changeups earning outs against LHB. It’s also a one-year deal, which encourages the Orioles to push him as much as they want. 170+ innings is not out of the question (hopefully the back problems are resolved!), while he pitches in a great situation.
Upside comes in multiple forms. Typically, it’s referenced when discussing young arms with 25%+ strikeout potential, but one of my biggest lessons of 2025 was embracing potential Holly arms. Finding the pitchers drafted as Toby types who consistently toss 90+ pitches of quality. Eflin is a prime example and I’m grabbing him everywhere in the later rounds.
Quick Take: Eflin is the perfect late round grab. He’s in a great situation in Baltimore on a one-year deal that will allow him to pitch deep into games as long as he’s healthy. If he’s injured, you let him go quickly at little cost to you, with upside of becoming a surprise anchor for your rotation.
Tier 15 – HIPSTER 1
73. Andrew Painter (PHI, RHP) – Watch Video
2025 stats (In Triple-A):
I don’t know what to make of him. For all the assumptions that Painter will have a great camp and be fantastic, I have to let y’all know that he struggled in Triple-A last year in his first season back from TJS. Well, he struggled after the first two months, and held close to a 2.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and over a strikeout an inning in his seven starts. But hot dang was it bad after that, ending the year with a 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Yikes.
Looking into why, it’s important to know how he had so much hype in the first place. Painter has velocity – 96/97 mph on his cut-action four-seamer – but low extension, a steep attack angle, and mediocre vert. The real skill was his feel for spin and phenomenal control, before he got TJS, of course. It was a 2022 season of a 39% strikeout rate with a 6% walk rate in 22 starts between Single-A and Double-A, before we had to wait two years for him to get back on the bump.
With that in mind, Painter’s final four months of 2025 came with a regression of his skills. The fastball lost 1.5 inches of vert from 17″ to 15.5″, and he kept tweaking his slider, curve, and change, even testing a sinker that he can locate inside to RHB, but comes with poor movement that I question if it’s worthwhile (probably?).
It looks like there’s now a sweeper in the mix that is messing with the data on his slider and curve, while a kick-change may be here as well as he found shocking drop on some of his changeups. So he’s not a finished product. Precisely. I worry he still needs to figure himself out and know what his traditional attack is with his arsenal. The 96+ mph velocity is good, but it needs more for success in the majors. The 90mph cutter with a two-plane 83 mph curveball + a 87 mph slider and/or sweeper? Now we’re talking. I just wish he could have shown it to us consistently before possibly getting plopped into the rotation the first week of April. I wonder if the Phillies even call him up until he proves it in Triple-A first. But what if he has a phenomenal spring? That would do it, and JT Realmuto is certainly fanning the flames of the hype train’s engine, but I’m not holding my breath.
Quick Take: I’m still waiting to see the Painter that was promised. 96+ mph four-seamers is a good start (even without anything solid under the hood) and he’ll need his old command to locate it well + he’s lost faith in his secondaries after tinkering and tweaking them throughout 2025 in the minors. I can see how it comes together if the feel for his arsenal is back to how it was – that 90mph cutter is filthy and the two breakers can miss a ton of bats – but I’m worried he won’t be there in the spring and require more time in the minors first.
74. Spencer Strider (ATL, RHP)
In late 2025, I asked a question that had a shocking answer. Can you remember a pitcher who had an elite four-seamer, underwent elbow surgery, returned with a worse four-seamer, and regained his elite four-seamer the next year? I know it’s a lot of variables, but the answer is simple. There isn’t one. Strider was a two-pitch arm, rooted in a stupid good four-seamer. That heater’s 97/98 mph velocity with elite extension and massive vert was so hard to hit, compounded by a well-commanded slider low that returned startling SwStr rates. Boy did I miss that fastball last year. The pitch not only dropped 1-2 ticks, it also lost two inches of vert and lost its flat attack angle, leading to a SwStr rate drop of seven points since we last saw it (2023, ignoring two injured games of 2024), from 15% to 8%. That’s rough.
The slider had its moments this past year despite the velocity beast prowling its turf as well, but batters flailed at the pitch far less without feeling the impending doom of his four-seamer, leading to a sub 60% strike rate. Not good.
It’s absolutely possible Strider is better in the next season – pitching coach Jeremy Hefner has discussed shifting his arm angle and preventing Strider from cross firing during his delivery – but this isn’t a simple tweak away. This would be turning an average fastball into an elite fastball over an off-season. I can’t buy into that. Give me something else more believable in my drafts.
Quick Take: Strider returned from TJS without his signature fastball and it crumbled his engine. It’s unrealistic to expect him to recover two ticks of velocity, two inches of vert, and improve its attack-angle in one off-season, marking Strider as a pitcher to ignore drafting this spring, unless he miraculously falls to the later rounds.
75. Logan Henderson (MIL, RHP)
There’s one simple reason to like Henderson: He has a really good four-seamer. It’s not the hardest out there at 93 mph, but it’s flat with stellar precision upstairs with great two-plane movement, especially the surprising vert at his low 33 degree arm angle. The offering returned elite SwStr marks and 70% strikes against both LHB and RHB as a result, laying a stellar foundation. My biggest concern is the supporting cast. His changeup is clearly the #2 offering regardless of handedness, appearing to be a kick-change that can be deadly, but was erratic as it scattered around the zone. I’m not terribly confident he can make it a 60%+ strike pitch, as I look toward his cutter and slider to take a step forward and be a reliable strike offering. The former had success pulling off the “Cannibal McSanchez” to LHB in its brief usage, and I’d be surprised if the Brewers didn’t encourage Henderson to embrace it in 2026. He’s also working on a curveball to help out his mix in an effort to be less two-pitch in the year ahead. The final question? His health. Henderson hit the IL in August with a right flexor strain, and the current word is he’s having a normal offseason with a proper chance for a rotation spot in April. I’m going to assume the Brewers let Harrison and Patrick have the final two spots and take it easy with Henderson after this injury scare, and once Henderson gets the green light for a rotation spot, I’ll be all over him. That four-seamer is too good.
Quick Take: Henderson’s flexor strain last August may keep him in the minors to start 2026, but if he breaks camp with the squad, I’d target him. The 93 mph four-seamer comes with great movement and a flat attack angle that Henderson locates upstairs with ease and will continue to earn whiffs as a stable foundation. The changeup needs help and could get it via cutters and curveballs, but even with the same assistants as 2025, Henderson should be worthwhile at the end of 12-teamer rosters, with upside for more if the secondaries advance.
76. Robby Snelling (MIA, LHP, AAA) – Watch Video
You should pay attention to Snelling. He just had a wonderful season upping his velocity with a glorious 166/39 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 136 minor league innings, generally split between Double-A and Triple-A. His four-seamer sits 94/95 mph with solid movement and a generally flat attack, and Snelling confidently pounds the zone with the pitch, returning an unreal 5.56 PLV on the pitch. You simply don’t see that from minor league arms. His array of changeups, big drop 83/84 mph slider, and a hard 82/83 mph two-plane curve complete the package for a legit SWATCH, making the last remaining question: “When?!” After trading Cabrera and Weathers, the Marlins’ rotation has three spots up for grabs, and it’s possible Snelling claims the fifth straight out of camp. After all, the other candidates are TJS-recovering Garrett, hip-surgery-recovering Meyer, the questionable heaters of Gusto and Janson, the highly suspect Mazur, and newly acquired Blalock, making it clear that Snelling is the best pitcher of the lot. Let’s see how the spring goes and if the Marlins are left without a choice. If three arms are pitching just fine in camp, Snelling will be delayed, and when he gets the call, you better jump for him.
77. Braxton Ashcraft (PIT, RHP)
Does Ashcraft break the Huascar Rule? I’m not sure. His slider is one of the best in baseball at 92 mph, returning 70%+ strikes at a 33% CSW to LHB, while barely missing the 70% strike clip to RHB, but making up for it with a 21% SwStr rate across 39% usage. The rest? Not nearly as good, despite the high 96/97 mph velocity. His four-seamer returned a 4.63 PLV despite a 62% strike rate and that velo – it’s an Empty Velocity fastball. However, Ashcraft wisely turns to the sinker as much as his four-seamer to RHB, trusting it 24% of the time to plenty of weak contact. If only that worked against LHB, too.
It should be no surprise that the biggest concern is against LHB, where the fastballs are failing him often. However, between 22% sliders and 31% curveballs, Ashcraft has the potential to wriggle out of at-bats without a ton of damage. I’m not quite ready to trust the command of his hook, but watching it dive under bats at 84/85 mph is all kinds of gorgeous. Think about it: You know 84 mph sliders are mediocre. What if that had a boatload more movement at the same velocity? That’s Ashcraft’s curveball. Oh snap. Sadly, he doesn’t come with Chandler’s precision and I’m concerned relying upon Ashcraft’s slider to get everything done.
There’s also the matter of Ashcraft’s 2025 season that can be a little deceiving. These numbers I’m citing came from a season of mostly relief appearances, or limited starts – Ashcraft didn’t throw 75 pitches in a single game, tallying five frames just three times. That means fewer times against the third through the lineup, higher velocity (he can gas it), and better results. He wasn’t tested for a wider arsenal a whole lot and now the Pirates will be asking him to go 80+ pitches every five days. Injury risk aside, I worry how much it’ll impact the per-inning performance.
In your 12-teamers, I’m fine giving it a shot and seeing how it goes. The slider is certainly disgusting and leaning more on the sinker to RHB + nailing down the curveball and keeping the four-seamer up while pushing his slider over 22% usage could improve his marks against LHB. It may not be smooth sailing, though, and I’m concerned we have a HIPSTER on our hands.
Quick Take: The 92 mph slider is as alluring of a breaker as you’ll find, but despite the high 96/97 mph velocity, Ashcraft’s heaters are not the stable foundation we normally see from fastball/slider arms. Command and arsenal depth is a concern, while his lack of experience going deep into games has me concerned he won’t take the step forward the velocity and slider suggests.
78. Tanner Bibee (CLE, RHP)
I consider Bibee my biggest bust of 2025. I considered him one of the better SPs to grab, providing safe ratios with a large workload and 180+ strikeouts with double-digit Wins. It’s my favorite SP mold to go for as your SP #2/#3 in drafts, providing a bedding for pickups over the season to fertilize a bountiful harvest. Or something like that. And oddly enough, I was anti-Bibee for the previous two seasons before conceding that his secondaries were consistent enough and reliable throughout a season.
Welp, I was wrong. The cutter was worse (until the last four games of the year…?), his old slider became a sweeper that he couldn’t get the feel for against RHB, and the four-seamer is still bad. The command across his arsenal is still suspect. I don’t know what to believe.
I want to tell you he’s a great upside pick to snag at a time in your draft where you’re comfortable swapping out picks with intriguing waiver wire options. I also want to preach caution that Bibee could easily replicate what he was last year – an arm we all held onto for too long, realizing in July that we really should have dropped him ages ago.
What’s even more frustrating is how Bibee has never really made sense to me. His heaters are not good. His cutter and changeup get whiffs (well, the cutter and slider used to get more), though they’ve never come with stellar command. It makes in-season management of Bibee a bit too hard for me to personally deal with, and considering his name value + the string of four starts at the end of the season that is sure to raise his ADP more than the season as a whole should, I’m unlikely to have Bibee on my teams. But hey, we could look back in a few years and wonder how Bibee had such a terrible 2025. You do you.
Quick Take: We saw Bibee lose feel for his cutter and breaker, while the fastball isn’t getting any better. I question if his new sinker can have the same success, and if what we just saw was more of Bibee’s true skill. It can go either way in 2026 and I’m worried about getting hooked early and not cutting bait soon enough as the ratios pull teams down.
79. Jack Flaherty (DET, RHP)
He’s such an interesting arm. Flaherty’s sub 30 degree arm angle makes his four-seamer’s 15″+ of vert actually good as it’s more than expected from a lower slotted four-seamer. Combined with a 1.6 HAVAA, the four-seamer looks like a proper weapon to get strikes in the upper third of the zone. Except that’s not what Flaherty does. In fact, he leaned heavily into low fastballs in 2025, returning 99th percentile loLoc and 1st percentile hiLoc. Wait, what. Yeaaaah. He was trying to go the low called strike route to set up his great curve and slider underneath, but his incredibly flat attack angle betrays the approach, matching the flatter bat path when swinging at low pitches. The result of the approach was more hard contact than ever before with essentially the same called strike rate and fewer whiffs. The slight dip in velocity doesn’t help, too.
His curve and slider took a step back as well. Both offerings returned fewer strikes to LHB, and he stole some sliders to RHB for more curveballs, which granted more strikes, but didn’t have the desired effect, and allowed more hard contact.
What I see is simple. Flaherty has an opportunity to change himself once again by leaning into the high four-seamer as a surprise offering, while leaning heavily into his best skill: locating curveballs and sliders down. Use them 60% of the time instead of 50%, and attack attack attack. Do whatever it takes to prevent batters from fastball hunting, which is far-and-away the weakest link of the chain. At least, that’s my take. Flaherty’s ability to earn whiffs continues to make me intrigued (27%+ strikeout rate last year) and he sure feels like a guy who could go on another dominant stretch with another tweak. I wonder if we’ll see a new approach early in the year, or possibly this is an in-season change. If we don’t see anything, the WHIP will stay high and the HRs are likely to return. Maybe this is how Melton enters the rotation…
Quick Take: Flaherty had a rough 2025, but still has the ability to miss bats and churn strikeouts, rooted in his two stellar breaking balls. If he can make the adjustments to lessen the damage on his fastball, he could be a sneaky arm for fantasy teams. Don’t rule him out just yet.
Tier 16 – Toby Upside 3
80. Kodai Senga (NYM, RHP)
Senga was fantastic in 2023, when he was able to mask his 95/96 mph four-seamer over the plate with a cutter that returned 70%+ strikes and a low 32% ICR, and despite featuring similar ICR marks on the cutter, it wasn’t thrown as often, nor was Senga able to fan batters with the pitch. His first half of 2025 produced for fantasy managers, though it was precarious compared to his stellar rookie campaign, and I hope he can return to form with the cutter while regaining a tick of velocity.
After a hamstring strain, Senga wasn’t able to find a rhythm in the second half of last season and I’m willing to hand wave those outings more than usual. Expect him to be more like the April/May version than September.
Senga’s famous “Ghost Fork” splitter will ensure a strikeout rate above 20%, and hopefully the four-seamer and cutter can be a proper tandem to allow him to push 25% for another season. Command will be the biggest question as I don’t anticipate the velocity to return to 95/96 mph territory, and he’ll need to reduce his four-seamer usage with more cutters, sinkers, sliders, and curveballs to navigate batters if he hopes to go six strong often.
Quick Take: Senga is on the edge of Toby and Holly. I question if he can improve his walk rate while reducing his four-seamer usage, which makes him a WHIP liability on the bump, though I don’t expect his ERA to soar into 4.00+ territory. He’s a possible HIPSTER, though I’d grab him as a late flier, hoping he finds health and rhythm.
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garrett CrochetT1 | BOS | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | PIT | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 3 | Tarik Skubal | DET | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 4 | Bryan WooT2 | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Ratio Focused | - |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 6 | Max Fried | NYY | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 7 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 9 | Hunter Greene | CIN | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 10 | Hunter Brown | HOU | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 11 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 12 | Logan WebbT3 | SF | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 13 | Joe Ryan | MIN | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 14 | Freddy Peralta | NYM | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | +2 |
| 15 | Jacob deGromT4 | TEX | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +3 |
| 16 | Cole Ragans | KC | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -2 |
| 17 | George Kirby | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts Injury Risk | -2 |
| 18 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +1 |
| 19 | Chris Sale | ATL | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +1 |
| 20 | Kyle BradishT5 | BAL | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -3 |
| 21 | Eury Pérez | MIA | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 22 | Nick Pivetta | SD | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 23 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 24 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | Ace Potential Ratio Focused | -1 |
| 25 | Cam Schlittler | NYY | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | - |
| 26 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 27 | Framber Valdez | DET | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 28 | Michael KingT6 | SD | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 29 | Dylan Cease | TOR | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 30 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +12 |
| 31 | Kevin GausmanT7 | TOR | Holly Quality Starts | +5 |
| 32 | Trevor Rogers | BAL | Holly Quality Starts | +16 |
| 33 | Tatsuya Imai | HOU | Holly Quality Starts | +1 |
| 34 | Nolan McLean | NYM | Holly Wins Bonus | +1 |
| 35 | Bubba Chandler | PIT | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 36 | Trey Yesavage | TOR | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 37 | Cade Horton | CHC | Holly Wins Bonus | +10 |
| 38 | Robbie RayT8 | SF | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | +6 |
| 39 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | Ace Potential Quality Starts Injury Risk | +4 |
| 40 | Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -8 |
| 41 | Chase Burns | CIN | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -10 |
| 42 | Shane McClanahanT9 | TB | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -5 |
| 43 | Kris Bubic | KC | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +21 |
| 44 | Blake Snell | LAD | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -11 |
| 45 | Bryce MillerT10 | SEA | Holly Ratio Focused | +7 |
| 46 | Edward Cabrera | CHC | Holly Wins Bonus | -8 |
| 47 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | Holly Quality Starts | -8 |
| 48 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | Ace Potential Ratio Focused | -3 |
| 49 | Aaron Nola | PHI | Holly Quality Starts | +11 |
| 50 | MacKenzie GoreT11 | TEX | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | - |
| 51 | Emmet Sheehan | LAD | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | - |
| 52 | Ryan Weathers | NYY | Frizzle Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +2 |
| 53 | Nick LodoloT12 | CIN | Holly Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 54 | Sonny Gray | BOS | Holly Wins Bonus | -5 |
| 55 | Ranger Suarez | BOS | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 56 | Noah Cameron | KC | Holly Ratio Focused | - |
| 57 | Gavin Williams | CLE | Holly Strikeout Upside | - |
| 58 | Shane Baz | BAL | Holly Strikeout Upside Team Context Effect | -5 |
| 59 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | Holly Ratio Focused | -1 |
| 60 | Joe Musgrove | SD | Holly Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +2 |
| 61 | Zac Gallen | ARI | Holly Quality Starts | +9 |
| 62 | Brandon WoodruffT13 | MIL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -34 |
| 63 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -2 |
| 64 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | Ace Potential Quality Starts Injury Risk | -1 |
| 65 | Carlos Rodón | NYY | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 66 | Jared Jones | PIT | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +UR |
| 67 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -1 |
| 68 | Shane Bieber | TOR | Ace Potential Quality Starts Injury Risk | -9 |
| 69 | Matthew BoydT14 | CHC | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 70 | Luis Castillo | SEA | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 71 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 72 | Zach Eflin | BAL | Toby Quality Starts | - |
| 73 | Andrew PainterT15 | PHI | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 74 | Spencer Strider | ATL | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 75 | Logan Henderson | MIL | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 76 | Robby Snelling | MIA | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 77 | Braxton Ashcraft | PIT | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 78 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | Toby Hipster Wins Bonus | -3 |
| 79 | Jack Flaherty | DET | Hipster Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -5 |
| 80 | Kodai SengaT16 | NYM | Toby Quality Starts Injury Risk | +UR |
| 81 | Joey Cantillo | CLE | Toby Quality Starts | -10 |
| 82 | Bailey Ober | MIN | Toby Quality Starts | -4 |
| 83 | Cody Ponce | TOR | Toby Quality Starts | +UR |
| 84 | Brayan Bello | BOS | Toby Quality Starts | -5 |
| 85 | Seth Lugo | KC | Toby Quality Starts | +UR |
| 86 | Landen Roupp | SF | Toby Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 87 | Tyler Mahle | SF | Toby Ratio Focused | -2 |
| 88 | Max Scherzer | TOR | Toby Wins Bonus | -2 |
| 89 | Quinn Priester | MIL | Toby Ratio Focused | -7 |
| 90 | Ryan Weiss | HOU | Toby Team Context Effect | +UR |
| 91 | Shane Smith | CWS | Toby Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 92 | Jack LeiterT17 | TEX | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 93 | Cristian Javier | HOU | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 94 | Zebby Matthews | MIN | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 95 | Mike Burrows | HOU | Frizzle Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 96 | Grant Holmes | ATL | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 97 | Grayson Rodriguez | LAA | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +UR |
| 98 | Spencer Arrighetti | HOU | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 99 | Jacob Lopez | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -7 | |
| 100 | Will Warren | NYY | Toby Wins Bonus | -5 |
Labels Legend
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
