Welcome to the ultimate guide to drafting Starting Pitchers for 2026 Fantasy Baseball. I’ve ranked the Top 400 (actually 430…) starting pitchers for the year ahead in an attempt to determine every SP who could help your fantasy teams this season.
However, before you scroll down to the Top 1-20, it’s incredibly important that you read this introduction. It highlights how I rank pitchers and why this is not a projection of the end of season Player Rater. It’s my strategy of how I draft pitchers, embracing the burn and churn nature of the game.
Remember, these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation. I’ve also added the Top 100 SP table at the bottom of this article.
For a table of the entire 400 SP (really 430!) and to read this article Ad-Free (or to simply support me for putting all of this together!), make sure to subscribe to PL+ or PL Pro where I have these rankings inside a massive Google Sheet, with my blurbs included. You can access the sheet inside our subscriber Discord.
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Read The Notes
Tier 16 – Toby Upside 3 (Cont’d)
81. Joey Cantillo (CLE, LHP)
Let me provide some quick background on Cantillo. He gave us a taste of excellence in September 2024 with four stellar starts after five games of getting his feet wet in the majors, then had to wait until the second half of 2025 to return to the rotation, where he turned in a 2.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 25% strikeout rate across ten starts. Hot dang, that has to get a whole lot of people hyped and yet, I’m more indecisive on Cantillo than I thought I would be.
He’s a SWATCH in the purest sense – his changeup is everything with a 28% SwStr rate to RHB along that blissful ten start run. It’s a great offering, especially paired with 99th percentile extension. It doesn’t have absurd drop or fade, but its 79 mph velocity is 13 ticks lower than his 91/92 mph four-seamer and is generally well spotted down-and-away. However, it’s not a good fastball. His high attack angle and minimal movement created incessant hard contact off the pitch and a .228 BABIP with 44% grounders is simply not something destined to return.
I’m intrigued by his favorite breaker – a curveball with –21 inches of drop, 99th percentile among all curveballs. Normally I’d tell you this is destined to be a low strike offering and inevitably shelved, but Cantillo has rare feel for the massive hook, returning 60%+ strike rates with it against both LHB and RHB in 2025, and a 67% strike rate to RHB in 2024. It isn’t the greatest commanded pitch, but a near 50% zone rate consistently at that break is a clear indication of feel. That’s cool.
What’s not cool is his attack to LHB. We traditionally see two weapons lefty-on-lefty: A sinker inside and a slider down-and-away. Cantillo has neither. There is no sinker (difficult at his near 55 degree arm angle) and his slider lacks drop, making it sit up in the zone more than he’d like, without a ton of bend to glide away from bats. With a sub 60% strike rate and 14% SwStr rate in 2025 to LHB, it forces Cantillo to lean on his changeup more than expected, which was still helpful, but not a devastating offering it needs to be in order to keep batters off the four-seamer.
Can Cantillo figure out the slider (or a sinker) to LHB? Or maybe he can rely upon the curveball and changeup to do the work and reduce his four-seamer to 35% usage from its flirtation with 50%. And what happens when negative regression comes for his fastball against RHB? Will he be able to get the strikes he needs with the breaker and changeup?
It’s a bit unclear at the moment, but I’d certainly give it a spin if Cantillo gets a proper opportunity inside the rotation. That changeup is destined to destroy RHB and with his elite extension, a cutter or sinker – even at poor movement profiles – could be easy additions to keep batters off his four-seamer. We may have to wait until May for him to get his next chance, though. Be ready when he does.
Quick Take: I’m concerned about Cantillo’s lack of other options to pair with his four-seamer and set up the devastating changeup. His curveball is better than expected, with absurd drop and a knack for keeping it inside the zone, while the slider leaves a lot to be desired against LHB. If Cantillo can add a sinker or cutter to prevent fastball-hunting, he could become a legit SWATCH once he gets a firm hold on a rotation spot.
82. Bailey Ober (MIN, RHP)
Ober had a bad year. He served plenty of HRs, spent time on the IL with injury, lost 1-2 ticks on his four-seamer, and it was just rough. Well, except for a near two-month stretch after his first start of the season (8 ER against the Cardinals…yikes.), where he had a 2.43 ERA in eleven starts. Wait, really? Yeah, he actually wasn’t the worst for a decent amount of time, albeit with a questionable WHIP and strikeout rate as he was barely sitting over 90 mph and wasn’t displaying a sustainable approach. So we don’t like Ober, right? Actually, I kinda do.
Ober isn’t so far off from his old self. The changeup needs to get its whiffs back against RHB (just throw it early in the count again!), the slider/cutter needs to stay away from the top of the zone and shouldn’t be trusted so much against LHB (five HRs off mistakes in the middle to LHB, but maybe that gets ironed out?), and assuming his velocity is back to 91-92 mph (we can monitor this in the spring, but ultimately, we won’t know until his first true start), he really just has to do one thing. Become the man you used to be. The man with one of my favorite nicknames that made you a Bailey Special. Become the Oberizzi. He used to feature the four-seamer upstairs nearly 80% of the time to both LHB and RHB, which has since fallen below a 60% clip. Nope. Gotta fix that.
I can see the narrative of an injury-plagued season bringing down his velocity and preventing him from focusing on his four-seamer command as a priority, and don’t forget that Ober was routinely drafted among the Top 40 SP entering last season. As long as there’s nothing to deter us in the spring, Ober should pitch the opening weekend (sweet!), making for a lovely last round pick as we can make the hold/drop decision after his first outing. Monitor the fastball velocity and locations and take the chance.
Quick Take: Ober’s 2025 was terrible, but that doesn’t mean his 2026 is destined for failure. It’s possible his hip injury affected his performance all year, pulling down his velocity and preventing him for reclaiming the top of the zone with his four-seamer. I love a pitcher with a clear solution to their problems, allowing for a quick decision early in the season. Consider Ober in the final rounds as a flier who you can move on from before the end of opening weekend if the fastball fails to eclipse 91 mph and struggles to land upstairs often.
83. Cody Ponce (TOR, RHP)
You should be drafting Ponce. He won’t cost you anything in the last round and when we talk about upside, it’s not always in the form of a young potential 30%+ strikeout arm. It can also come from a reliable arm who could provide 170+ innings without hurting you anywhere. That’s the potential for Ponce, who dominated the KBO with a 95/96 mph four-seamer and a kick-change that he trusts to take down LHB. The question is what we’ll see from his breakers, which Lance Brodzowski has outlined is an 88mph cutter with some gyro slider tendencies at times. That sounds great to me. The four-seamer may be a bit worse without the KBO baseball, but overall, it’s a good enough mix that speaks to Toby at worst and Holly at best. That’s the kind of upside I love chasing, especially on a winning ball club.
Quick Take: Ponce is a bit of mystery, but we know he has 95+ mph fastball velocity with a great changeup and a solid cutter/slider. He likes to throw strikes and will get the pearl every five days for a contending team. That’s exactly the kind of sleeper pick you want at the end of your drafts.
84. Brayan Bello (BOS, RHP)
Bello had a late start to the season, debuting on April 22nd due to shoulder soreness, and it didn’t take until the middle of May for him to get his footing after two significant changes. The sweeper? Nah, the slider and sweeper are the same pitch in my book, just a change in Savant designation. The actual changes: He attacked with his sinker far more than before, jumping from a sub 40% zone rate to 45-50% clip following his first four games, then adding a cutter 10-20% of the time to deal with LHB, which expanded to RHB as the season progressed, jumping toward a 25%+ overall usage.
He came into form with his new approach in the middle of June, sparking a fourteen-game run beginning June 15th through the end of August with a 2.42 ERA and 1.01 WHIP across 89.1 IP (averaging over six innings per game!) before he ran out of steam in September. But he had just a 20% strikeout rate during that time. Yeah, that’s the downside. Bello is a sinker/sweeper arm to RHB with all the grounders off the sinker, with a mixed bag of offerings between the sinker, cutter, four-seamer, and changeup to LHB. His four-seamer can be an effective surprise pitch upstairs, but fails to earn whiffs, and his changeup used to be the best part of his arsenal, but fell to an atrocious 51% strike rate to LHB last year. Ouch.
If Bello can continue to attack with sinkers and maintain his success against RHB, there’s hope he can get the feel back for his changeup to LHB and be good enough to be a decent ratio arm for a winning club. That means…He’s a Toby with a sliver of hope he can form into a Holly were he able to perfect the changeup and find more than 14% SwStr on his breaker to RHB. I’m okay drafting a Toby in drafts, but only those carry realistic potential along with their stable floor. Bello doesn’t look to be that guy for 12-teamers.
Quick Take: Bello’s shift toward cutters and attacking more in the zone with his sinker is a positive trend, but for him to be more than a 12-team Toby, he has to flex more whiffability with his changeup to LHB and breaking ball to RHB. I have my doubts he can do that, creating a player I’d consider adding off the wire, not snagging in my drafts.
85. Seth Lugo (KCR, RHP)
I was initially interested in Lugo for 2026, considering his effectiveness early in 2025 until his back began barking, but there was one metric that has me worried: his curveball velocity. It was down two ticks all season. Normally, I wouldn’t care so much about a hook falling to 77 mph from 79 mph, but Lugo’s yakker is his tether to success. The slower velocity led to a massive decline in whiffs, crumbling the putaway rate, and, naturally, his success. It’s not a terrible play to have Lugo the opening weekend and see if things are better, though I’d reserve it for 15-teamers, not 12-teamers. There are better options for volume.
Quick Take: Lugo’s back injury cut his season short, but his struggles were apparent before he was forced off the field. His full arsenal is only worthwhile if it leads to a dominant curveball. Without the weapon, it’s all too mediocre to trust out of the gate.
86. Landen Roupp (SFG, RHP)
Roupp became a bit of a HIPSTER last season after he fanned 17 batters in two starts against the Phillies and Angels in his third and fourth starts, a mark he needed five more starts to match after. At his peak, Roupp is a Nola-lite with a low arm angle and a big breaking ball he commands well down-and-gloveside to RHB and he needs a little more confidence to stop featuring the pitch on the outer half to LHB, though it was heavily successful against them last season at churning outs and called strikes. His changeup needs to step up a little to match it (56% strikes ain’t it), while the sinker gets hit a little too hard to provide the canvas for the hook to thrive against both LHB and RHB. Wait, his 19″ horizontal sinker was bad against RHB last year? Yuuuuup.
Last year, that sinker was thrown inside to RHB just 41% of the time and it led to an absurdly high .427 BABIP. Yes, that will come down, and also, he needs to stop throwing that thing over the middle of the plate so much. Sure, he has an elite 29% called strike rate due to his tendency to locate on the outside edge, but just jam the thing. Throwing it outside opens the door for too many mistakes over the plate and you don’t really need to steal those strikes. You have the stupid good 22% SwStr rate curveball to handle that.
That’s really the biggest area of growth for Roupp. He already has a weapon that works against both batters, he just needs the sinker to be spotted better to RHB and he can figure out the rest to LHB. And let’s say he finds a better feel for his changeup and locates the sinker better. Then you have a 23-25% strikeout rate arm with good ratios…hey wait a second. That’s pretty incredible. He doesn’t have Nola’s four-seamer to elevate upstairs, fine, but you really shouldn’t be walking so many batters with that sinker. Force your hitters to watch some Parks n Rec and make them GET JAMMED.
Quick Take: Roupp’s curveball is elite and all he needs is the sinker to earn strikes. It got beat up a bit against LHB, but its true issue was against RHB, where it held a low strike rate and was demolished when connected inside the zone. If he leans into the inside sinker for better sinker strikes, he’ll have the curveball to put them away or a quick out to third, lowering the WHIP dramatically. And if he can nail down the changeup or a surprise four-seamer along the way, well then that’s just gravy. There’s legit potential here.
87. Tyler Mahle (SFG, RHP)
It sure can feel smart to look at the 2.18 ERA and 1.13 ERA of Mahle’s 2025 and hand wave it. Look at the 4.51 xFIP! Please don’t do this. Wait, you’re into him? Well, as a Toby, yes, not as a legit stud, and there’s value in having the SP #3 for a team out of camp with a great defense and long leash in the rotation. But he doesn’t pitch well! Are you sure? The HOTEL was in his favor, I know. The low HR rate is bonkers given the problems of old, but then you remember he was on the Reds for most of his career and just had 16 starts in a pitcher friendly park with a 0.52 HR/9. And guess what? So is Oracle Park! But the 85% LOB rate! Yeah, that’s too high. Got me. He also fanned just 19% of the batters he faced after returning 25%+ across four straight seasons, which is mostly due to his elite two-plane four-seamer with a generally flat attack angle dropping from 93/94 mph to 92 mph and change. I’m not going to completely rule out Mahle getting a little extra juice back and his command of the pitch is still as good as it was before.
Then there’s the rest of the arsenal. He added a cutter last season, which essentially took the 83 mph slider and cut it into two, upping it two ticks at the cost of six inches of depth. He spotted it well to RHB and the splitter covers for them against RHB. It’s all good enough to me.
I think he’s a great gamble. The situation is perfect for Mahle in San Francisco and even if you don’t believe he’ll go a full season (three months of last year were on the IL with shoulder fatigue before making two solid starts to end the season), he’s going at the cost of free. Give it a shot, especially if the velocity is nearing 93 mph by the end of the spring.
Quick Take: Mahle had some great HR and LOB luck last season, though even regression spells out a productive arm in 15-teamers, with the chance of strikeouts returning to present proper 12-teamer value. He’ll get volume when he’s on the mound and as a flyball pitcher, the WHIP has a good shot of staying under 1.20 as long as the secondaries find enough strikes.
88. Max Scherzer (FA, RHP)
There’s recent news of Scherzer possibly re-signing with the Blue Jays and I don’t see why he can’t help out your fantasy teams again. Uhhh, he was horrific down the stretch. Well, that’s because Scherzer had a back injury and he’s getting old and all the HRs chased him. Stop hand-waving this. Okay fair. Why do I have Scherzer ranked in the top 100? Because he’ll be at his best early in the season, when he still has fuel in the tank. In your 12-teamers, that’s great. Cash it for free, let him loose when it starts crumbling. His slider is still phenomenal (20% SwStr rate!) and his four-seamer miraculously still grades well. He’ll figure it out or retire. Works for me.
Quick Take: I expect Scherzer to sign with the Jays and become a decent Toby type with a sprinkle extra strikeouts at the cost of a few annoying HRs here and there. Play the schedule right and jump ship when he loses stamina, and there’s value to be had.
89. Quinn Priester (MIL, RHP)
I’m not as sold as others on Priester, though his expected volume + prior success does suggest upside if he makes a tweak. What I see is a sinker/cutter that allowed a ton of weak contact to RHB last year that doesn’t quite make sense (he doesn’t locate either exceptionally well), and a cutter that is also located poorly to LHB (up and away?!) and is punished often as a result. His slider isn’t a whiff pitch to LHB, and while its sub 20% putaway rate in 2025 could jump closer to 25% in 2026 given the near 20% SwStr rate, I worry that the 1.20+ WHIP will return as he’ll return more hits when the ICR marks inevitable rise, nor a solution to his LHB problem.
Maybe there’s something I’m missing about the sinker’s effectiveness and maybe his cutter takes a step forward to go inside to LHB, while getting more out of his slider or curve as well. The benefit here is the good home park and long leash to go deep into games, so consider Priester a good last round pick to see how he performs early in the year. He could be a Toby at the end of the day (or worse), but the Holly potential is there. It just can’t be more of the unsustainable same from 2026.
Quick Take: Priester’s sinker performed far better than it should last season, and I question if there’s enough in the tank to deal with LHB and stave off expected regression. There is whiffability in the 86 mph slider to RHB that could return more strikeouts, and the cutter is a solid pitch when he’s able to locate effectively. With high volume in a good situation, there is an opportunity for Priester to become a reliable Holly, though I expect a Toby you question rostering all year.
90. Ryan Weiss (HOU, RHP)
I’m circling Weiss as a sleeper arm for 2026 until something in the spring suggests otherwise. The Astros are highly likely to feature a six-man rotation with Imai in the mix and with the injury concerns of McCullers Jr. and Arrighetti, Weiss has an easy track to a starting job, and I’d be surprised if the Astros signed him from the KBO for $5 Million without the vision of an innings eater for a rotation that badly needs one.
As with many arms coming from overseas, there is haze surrounding Weiss’ skill set and how it will speak to MLB opponents. His final season in the KBO returned 178.2 IP of a 2.87 ERA, 29% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate, and nearly 50% grounders. I watched some video and Weiss looks to have an 85 mph breaker with two-plane movement that misses bats and propelled his near 30% strikeout rate, while sitting around 93-95 mph and able to gas it up to 96/97 mph when he spent time relieving during the playoffs. It seems like a sinker with horizontal movement that catalyzes the groundball rate, though I could be wrong, and he features a circle change with major drop, seemingly rounding out the mix. I’m not sure how effective the approach will be against LHB – Can he earn strikes with the changeup? Is he able to go sweeper heavy? Does he have a four-seamer that can survive? – but the breakers and heaters should make for a strong attack against RHB that will allow him to rack up the frames.
I’m so in. Here is your high volume arm with a 22%+ strikeout rate and possibility for quality ratios on a winning team, completely ignored in drafts, allowing you to snag him in the last round. Upside comes in multiple forms, with quality volume being the wiser choice over volaitle youth.
Quick Take: Weiss has the perfect opportunity in front of him. The Astros need volume and after 177 innings in the KBO with a filthy sweeper, a mid 90s fastball, and heavy drop changeup, he looks like an arm who can go 90+ pitches regularly at a strikeout per inning without destroy your ratios. We’ll get a better picture this spring and early in the year, and with a possible date with the Cardinals to kick off the season, I’d love to take a gamble.
91. Shane Smith (CHW, RHP)
What a wonderful surprise Smith provided White Sox fans in 2025. A Rule 5 pick who only recently stretched to be a starter, Smith displayed a large uptick in velocity to 95/96 mph and developed the stamina to hold in throughout 80+ pitches as the year progressed. His four-seamer and sinker lack Fan4+ marks, but they performed exceptionally well to both LHB and RHB, even the sinker with a stupid low ICR clip to LHB. Sadly, we should expect both heaters to receive extra punishment in 2026, putting pressure on his secondaries to carry a larger burden.
They certainly weren’t ready to do so in 2025. The curveball and changeup should be a deadly pair against LHB, but they combined for roughly 50% strikes, about ten points lower than you want to see. The velocity and movement of his curveball + the kick-change’s filth outline a larger ceiling for both, but it remains to be seen. There is a slider as well, which had a bit of success against RHB, though it carried a poor 11% SwStr rate and often fell in the heart of the plate instead of its ideal down-and-away home. I’d want to see a step forward with its command to feel better about Smith against RHB, or it’ll be another season hoping Smith can befriend Koufax and induce weaker contact than expected. Throw in the team context of the White Sox that limited him to just seven Wins in 2025, and I’m out. I really hope Smith takes that next step and he could be a strong arm if he nails down the secondaries, but the innately questionable fastballs with his control issues, merged with a poor team context, is a whole lot to overcome.
Quick Take: Smith popped seemingly out of nowhere last season, though he overperformed based on his poor control and susceptible heaters. He’s more likely to lay on an unproductive floor than scratch his exciting ceiling, especially without a strong team supporting him.
Tier 17 – Late Upside
92. Jack Leiter (TEX, RHP)
Is this the year? Leiter’s stuff speaks to success with a decent vert but super flat 97+ mph four-seamer at seven feet of extension, great break on his 87/88 mph slider, a kick-change, and a solid curveball. The problem is command, and I’m inclined to believe he won’t get there. Too many four-seamers and sliders were casually thrown over the plate, while the changeup is used second most against LHB, but returned a horrid 54% strike rate, forcing the sinker, slider, and curve to combine for 40% usage. That’s bad? Yeah, when the average a 47% ICR between them. Oh jeez. But he gets whiffs! Uhhh, I don’t know how to tell you this, but Leiter had zero offerings to RHB or LHB that returned 15%+ swinging strikes. OH COME ON.
The cool thing is that these numbers were from last season and not this season. Obviously. It’s very possible Leiter finds himself this season and is able to locate the heater upstairs where its velocity and 1.6 HAVAA explode, going BSB with his slider and friends. After all, Leiter’s final seven starts featured just a 6% walk rate. Then again, those seven games came without an increased ability to generate whiffs and I’m not sold.
Leiter looks like a HIPSTER staple and despite how much his four-seamer looks like a legit weapon on paper, if he can’t consistently locate it where it needs to go, it won’t be the savior for an arsenal that needs a machete to find their spots. It’s a jungle out here. With so many fliers to chase in your drafts, I suggest passing on Leiter for now.
Quick Take: Leiter’s fastball speaks a big game, but the execution hasn’t been there and it’s atypical for a pitcher to suddenly spot four-seamers and sliders after a large sample of failing to do so. It outlines Leiter as a HIPSTER who will have stellar nights but lacks the polish to be a reliable arm through a season.
93. Cristian Javier (HOU, RHP)
I know it feels like wishcasting for 2022, but I truly think Javier has it in him to be a legit starter again. 2023 was rough with his command and 2024 ended early with TJS, its effect rippling into 2025 and leaving us with just eight starts to end the year.
But here’s the thing. His four-seamer is still great. His changeup was fantastic to LHB as he threw it in the zone more than ever. His sweeper has always done well to RHB, but he’s tugged it too far off the outside edge. The curveball has fun movement, though Javier has always struggled to get it to land properly for a strike. He’s also started to throw a sinker to RHB as a mix-up pitch, which is far from an exceptional offering, but as a surprise pitch? Yeah, that’s kinda cool. If he can locate it on the inner half n all, of course.
This is all to say that on paper, Javier has more upside than his 300+ ADP will tell you and I get a sense he’ll actually be a sleeper in drafts this March as the perfect late round target in 12-teamers. The ceiling is grand, while you’ll be able to get a sense of his ability early on – well, maybe not, but if it doesn’t work in the first start, push down the emotions of making a bad drop. Just move on and hope you can snag him later if he rebounds. And that’s the worst case! Best case, changeups and sweepers are trusted in the zone and his four-seamer continues doing its thing upstairs (hopefully at a lower arm angle like in 2022, making a 1.4 HAVAA, not the 1.1 HAVAA we saw in 2024 and 2025).
Quick Take: It may be silly to wish for a guy to return to his 2022 form, but considering the last two years as lost ones due to TJS, it’s really just one down year from Javier, who still possesses an elite four-seamer, showcased trust in changeups over the plate to LHB last season, and has a sweeper that seemingly would succeed if he simply aimed it to land more middle of the plate than off the edge. He has a locked rotation spot and legit upside during his TJS honeymoon. That’s the recipe of a proper sleeper pick.
94. Zebby Matthews (MIN, RHP)
All eyes are on Matthews. With legit stuff numbers, 96/97 mph velocity, a 92 mph cutter, and a 22% SwStr slider among low walk rates, Zebby looks poised for a breakout. After all, K-BB% loves him, stuff loves him, the opportunity is ripe for the taking, and it’s a textbook arsenal that we’ve seen work. Why are you writing in a way that looks like a setup. Because it is a setup. THEN GET TO THE POINT. I think this is a situation of control and command being two distinctly different things. Oh. Huh.
Zebby fills the zone too dang much. His four-seamer and sinker both had a zone rate above 60% to RHB, the latter of which should be hover 50% in my book (it should land inside and more inside), and the former was tagged a whole lot by both LHB and RHB. I’m not joking, each returned an ICR over 55%. Yikes. It’s a product not just of batters getting comfortable and relying on heaters to swat over the plate, but also its lack of excitement under the hood. Sure, it’s 96+ mph, but everything else is average, from extension to HAVAA, and let me tell you, average movement on a fastball is the worst. That’s deadzone.
The cutter and slider certainly help the cause, but have issues of their own. The slider does its job well to RHB as a two-strike offering, though it may need to appear more often when behind in counts to keep batters from fastball hunting. His 92 mph cutter has solid horizontal movement compared to the heater and against RHB and should be thrown far more than 11% of the time, but LHB crushed the offering. Why? Because it fell into the nitro zone far too often.
And that’s really the problem with Zebby. Our Mistake% metric doesn’t suggest Zebby is throwing meatballs often, but with his slider saved for two strikes and lack of fear throwing over the plate, batters are getting comfortable early in the at-bat, and especially when ahead. And while I want to say that this is a fixable trait, I also hate how often these pitches are getting punished when over the plate. We’ve seen many pitchers feature high-zone pitches and their stuff masks the mistakes. The fact that hitters have had such a fun time with his four-seamer is a huge red flag. All of that said, Zebby still has a whiffable slider, a good cutter, and a 96 mph four-seamer. A major shift in approach and locations could turn him into a phenomenal arm overnight, and I sure hope to make a video about his breakout season this year. I hate wishcasting, though, and this has all the makings of a HIPSTER in my book.
Quick Take: Zebby’s deadzone four-seamer needs to find a way to stop allowing so much hard contact. Its high zone rates could be the issue, while tweaks with his sinker, cutter, and slider could be the answer he needs to take the next step forward. I’m concerned there’s too much needed to fix, creating a volatile arm if he gets the #5 SP slot in Minnesota. This has HIPSTER written all over it, and I’d rather chase something more straightforward.
95. Mike Burrows (HOU, RHP)
You’re going to see Burrows on a whole lot sleeper lists by March and it makes sense. Here’s a guy with a 24% strikeout rate heading from the Pirates to the Astros (Remember Cole and Musgrove?), who is now going to be on a longer leash and allowed to throw 90 pitches per start. I’m not so convinced.
First and foremost, I don’t see the same gap in analytics between the Pirates and Astros as we saw a decade ago. After all, go look at Burrows’ profile and tell me: What do the Astros change? It’s not as simple as it was having Cole throw four-seamers instead of sinkers and lean into the slider (with sticky stuff, too). Burrows showed us what he is last season and it’s questionable. It’s an elite changeup paired with a 95/96 mph four-seamer with some vert and good command upstairs, but few whiffs (sub 10% to both LHB and RHB), and a slider that struggles to get depth. That’s it, really.
There is a sinker Burrows could lean into more against RHB, but its lack of ride is suspect. The curveball could be a larger strike pitch to LHB over time, and maybe he should swap the usage of 40% four-seamers and 35% changeups to LHB. There’s also the fact that Burrows only saw six full frames twice in 2025 and this limited arsenal makes him highly susceptible to the third-time-through penalty.
And yet, after all this blathering, I’m totally fine grabbing him in the last round of drafts. Why not? He’ll have an opportunity in a good situation (albeit, once every six days, sometimes seven), and the Astros could have a plan for him that works. At least he has an elite pitch with 95+ mph heaters – that’s a decent foundation to build upon.
Quick Take: I’m not convinced that the current iteration of Burrows is enough to warrant a draft-and-hold for fantasy managers in 2026. His changeup is elite and will get the job done, but his 95/96 mph four-seamer struggles to miss bats without much else going on under the hood, and his slider lacks drop to earn whiffs against RHB. Circle him as a flier to inspect early in the season, and not as a target you need to leave your draft with.
96. Grant Holmes (ATL, RHP)
It was a wild ride with REB last year. My anxiety of holding or dropping Holmes at the end April felt like a third-season sitcom romance of “will they, won’t they,” but Holmes redeemed himself with a strong 13-game stretch of 3.04 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 30% K rate in 74 IP (buoyed by Rockie Road and the Angels but let’s move on). The slider boasted a delicious 37% CSW during the stretch and began embracing a cutter to fend off batters packing their bags to go four-seamer hunting.
But his story ended before August arrived with UCL tear that the famous Dr. Neal ElAttrache took less seriously than other UCL injuries, suggesting he simply needed to “let the tissue scar over”. Holmes didn’t get surgery after that, electing rehab instead, and after twiddling our thumbs, waiting for news, we got a jolt of a quote on December 9th: “Look, my stuff’s better now than when I was totally healthy,” and that he’s having a completely normal off-season. Uh huh. At the very least, we should be heavily considering Holmes for the #5 spot out of camp (Pérez’s addition nullifies Schwellenbach’s injury), and if he does, maybe the stuff actually is better than ever. Wouldn’t that be something? I’m inclined to avoid the “Real Estate Broker” altogether as an easily labeled HIPSTER, though I can see myself getting pulled in for a stream and refusing to loosen my grasp of a phenomenal mane that somehow combines the cowardly lion, Kenny Powers, and Season 5 Dustin Henderson. THE CURLS.
Quick Take: Holmes’ 2024 ended with a UCL tear that has apparently recovered through rehab. With internal expectations of a normal offseason, Holmes could be comfortably in the rotation to start the year, ready to continue striking out batters with his filthy slider. Maybe the cutter is the answer for his fastball’s struggles against LHB, though his tumultuous nature seems to be more trouble than it’s worth.
97. Grayson Rodriguez (LAA, RHP)
It seems really silly to stick Grayson in the Top 100. I truly understand that. And yet, if he’s actually healthy, how can you not take a flier on him? But we don’t know if he is. Fine! You don’t have to draft him before your final rounds and you’ll be able to let him go before the season starts. Don’t forget what Grayson showed us when he was healthy: mid-to-upper 90s velocity with whiffable secondaries and good control. This is the ultimate dart throw and the risk is straightforward. Take. The. Shot.
Quick Take: Please be healthy and starting on opening day. There’s minimal risk snagging GrayRod with your last pick and the upside is a pitcher with mid-to-upper 90s velocity, two great secondaries, and 25%+ strikeout potential. Don’t overthink it.
98. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU, RHP)
The Astros have two injury questions entering the spring with McCullers and The Pasta Pirate in contention for the rotation, and the latter is far more compelling. After an encouraging end to the 2024 season, Arrighetti first fractured his thumb in April, and only shortly after returning from four months on the shelf, Arrighetti went back on the IL with elbow inflammation. Rough. At least his UCL wasn’t torn and no surgery was needed, opening the door for Arrighetti to be healthy for the spring.
Let’s say Arrighetti has a normal spring training and is situated inside the Astros’ rotation. There’s a shot for Spencer to be a great pick-up if he’s able to pitch at the same level we saw in August and September of 2024 – Sweepers, curveballs, cutters, and sliders galore, finding strikes and earning whiffs, avoiding massive punishment on his deadzone four-seamer. I also have to point out that Arrighetti comes with over seven feet of extension and a super flat attack angle. It just happens to have horrific movement and lacks the precision upstairs to take advantage of its best facets. Who knows, maybe Arrighetti figures out how to go from a below-average hiLoc of 47% and flirts with a 60% rate? Wouldn’t that be something.
My gut is telling me that Arrighetti can’t be trusted, even if he has a rotation spot. We’ve only seen a brief moment of everything coming together, and even in his best period, there was still inconsistent command and more hard contact than we’d like. He has HIPSTER painted all over him without the injury considerations and I’d prefer to throw my hat into different rings. Where can I find a place to throw hats into rings? I’ll have my people call your people. My man.
Quick Take: Arrighetti had a lost 2025 due to injury, ending with the stuff of nightmares: An IL stint due to elbow inflammation. The hope is for Arrighetti to appear in the spring and hopefully be in the rotation out of camp, and even assuming the best, Spencer’s track record of questionable command makes him difficult to endorse outside of a final dart throw once he’s confirmed in the rotation. As much as I’d love to see him get into rhythm, I have to acknowledge the terrible floor of his home. Just get a guy to tile it or something.
99. Jacob Lopez (ATH, LHP)
Lopez’s electric summer presence dissipated in a flash after a trip to the IL with a lat strain and I implore that you ignore his 2025 line of 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 24% strikeout rate. Why? Because his final start came with 9 ER and 12 baserunners in just two frames, masking the absurdity of his previous thirteen starts: 2.19 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 30% strikeout rate. Yes, there are four games of sub five frames in that stretch, but these thirteen games provided an ace from June 8th through August 19th. Two months of supreme dopeness.
And it’s overlooked because he’s a weird one. His four-seamer has the lowest zone rate to RHB at 37%, playing a game of chicken with his cutter on the outside edge, and changeup that drops underneath. J. Lo’s slider is the true winner, though, featuring an astonishing 97th percentile PLV, and it takes down both LHB and RHB with ease. He even introduced his 18″ horizontal sinker to LHB in his last three games of the stretch and I wouldn’t be shocked if he leaned heavily when he starts regularly again.
But when will that be? He was apparently being considered to return before the end of the season, and we haven’t seen a messenger pigeon since. A healthy Lopez in the spring should propel his ADP from the mid 500s into the 300s overnight (if not higher!), and when diving deep in drafts, health is the one variable you lean on. If he’s still hurt, you drop! If he’s healthy, you’re happy! If he’s bad…well that’s baseball, eh? In 12-teamers, I’d take a chance late to see if he still has the same spark. It’s so dang rare to find a 30% strikeout arm with legit ratios across thirteen straight starts. The skill is clearly in there.
Quick Take: J.Lo is a phenomenal late-round flier. His health is in question after a lat strain ended his 2025, though his thirteen starts prior to destruction came with an elite 30% strikeout rate and sparkling ratios. That skill is still there with his unusual and wide southpaw arsenal, as long as his body doesn’t hold him back.
100. Will Warren (NYY, RHP)
Last year was a journey. Warren was initially a sinker/sweeper arm with a good changeup and skepticism brought to you by the Council of Sinker/Sweepers: We Need A Fastball For LHB. However, Warren flipped the script, featuring more vert than expected on his four-seamer, and embraced the movement with his flat attack angle and seven feet of extension to become a four-seamer/sinker arm to both LHB and RHB. And get this: That four-seamer returned a ridiculous 18% SwStr rate to RHB. Incredible.
Oddly enough, the four-seamer that would appear to be the answer to his sinker/sweeper problems was terrible against LHB. At 50% usage, it returned an abysmal 7% SwStr rate, receiving little help from his curveball limping to the occasion with a 46% strike rate. Without the sinker to mix as effectively with the four-seamer, it makes sense that there is less confusion and an easier time at the plate (let alone, better equipped to handle the lively sweeper), and yet, the four-seamer with curves + changeups should be better. Sadly, the changeup isn’t consistent enough and Warren doesn’t have the ability to favor the sinker down-and-away, either.
The good news? He has a rotation spot and you don’t need to spend an expensive draft pick. If Warren is able to wrangle his secondaries, he’s Michael King 2.0. That’s a huge IF, of course, and you’re in a good spot to monitor the first two starts, searching for clues to determine if his LHB approach has improved and if he’s freed himself from the two-headed attack of fastballs to RHB. Just jam that sinker inside, throw good sweepers, elevate, and nail down the change. IS THAT SO MUCH TO ASK?! It’s a lot to ask. Oh. Well, I’m still going to ask it.
Quick Take: Warren went from a sinker + sweeper approach to four-seamers first in a shocking turn of events, and I’m not sold that he has the command in his secondaries to be the best of both worlds. He certainly has the stuff to excel with a ton of movement on breakers and the slowball, but the jury is out if he can find an approach he can consistently execute. A great upside flier given the runway if he’s locked in early, just don’t get too dependent on a breakout.
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garrett CrochetT1 | BOS | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | PIT | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 3 | Tarik Skubal | DET | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 4 | Bryan WooT2 | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Ratio Focused | - |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 6 | Max Fried | NYY | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 7 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 9 | Hunter Greene | CIN | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 10 | Hunter Brown | HOU | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 11 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 12 | Logan WebbT3 | SF | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 13 | Joe Ryan | MIN | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 14 | Freddy Peralta | NYM | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | +2 |
| 15 | Jacob deGromT4 | TEX | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +3 |
| 16 | Cole Ragans | KC | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -2 |
| 17 | George Kirby | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts Injury Risk | -2 |
| 18 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +1 |
| 19 | Chris Sale | ATL | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +1 |
| 20 | Kyle BradishT5 | BAL | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -3 |
| 21 | Eury Pérez | MIA | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 22 | Nick Pivetta | SD | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 23 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 24 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | Ace Potential Ratio Focused | -1 |
| 25 | Cam Schlittler | NYY | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | - |
| 26 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 27 | Framber Valdez | DET | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 28 | Michael KingT6 | SD | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 29 | Dylan Cease | TOR | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 30 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +12 |
| 31 | Kevin GausmanT7 | TOR | Holly Quality Starts | +5 |
| 32 | Trevor Rogers | BAL | Holly Quality Starts | +16 |
| 33 | Tatsuya Imai | HOU | Holly Quality Starts | +1 |
| 34 | Nolan McLean | NYM | Holly Wins Bonus | +1 |
| 35 | Bubba Chandler | PIT | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 36 | Trey Yesavage | TOR | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 37 | Cade Horton | CHC | Holly Wins Bonus | +10 |
| 38 | Robbie RayT8 | SF | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | +6 |
| 39 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | Ace Potential Quality Starts Injury Risk | +4 |
| 40 | Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -8 |
| 41 | Chase Burns | CIN | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -10 |
| 42 | Shane McClanahanT9 | TB | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -5 |
| 43 | Kris Bubic | KC | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +21 |
| 44 | Blake Snell | LAD | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -11 |
| 45 | Bryce MillerT10 | SEA | Holly Ratio Focused | +7 |
| 46 | Edward Cabrera | CHC | Holly Wins Bonus | -8 |
| 47 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | Holly Quality Starts | -8 |
| 48 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | Ace Potential Ratio Focused | -3 |
| 49 | Aaron Nola | PHI | Holly Quality Starts | +11 |
| 50 | MacKenzie GoreT11 | TEX | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | - |
| 51 | Emmet Sheehan | LAD | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | - |
| 52 | Ryan Weathers | NYY | Frizzle Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +2 |
| 53 | Nick LodoloT12 | CIN | Holly Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 54 | Sonny Gray | BOS | Holly Wins Bonus | -5 |
| 55 | Ranger Suarez | BOS | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 56 | Noah Cameron | KC | Holly Ratio Focused | - |
| 57 | Gavin Williams | CLE | Holly Strikeout Upside | - |
| 58 | Shane Baz | BAL | Holly Strikeout Upside Team Context Effect | -5 |
| 59 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | Holly Ratio Focused | -1 |
| 60 | Joe Musgrove | SD | Holly Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +2 |
| 61 | Zac Gallen | ARI | Holly Quality Starts | +9 |
| 62 | Brandon WoodruffT13 | MIL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -34 |
| 63 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -2 |
| 64 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | Ace Potential Quality Starts Injury Risk | -1 |
| 65 | Carlos Rodón | NYY | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 66 | Jared Jones | PIT | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +UR |
| 67 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -1 |
| 68 | Shane Bieber | TOR | Ace Potential Quality Starts Injury Risk | -9 |
| 69 | Matthew BoydT14 | CHC | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 70 | Luis Castillo | SEA | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 71 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 72 | Zach Eflin | BAL | Toby Quality Starts | - |
| 73 | Andrew PainterT15 | PHI | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 74 | Spencer Strider | ATL | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 75 | Logan Henderson | MIL | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 76 | Robby Snelling | MIA | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 77 | Braxton Ashcraft | PIT | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 78 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | Toby Hipster Wins Bonus | -3 |
| 79 | Jack Flaherty | DET | Hipster Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -5 |
| 80 | Kodai SengaT16 | NYM | Toby Quality Starts Injury Risk | +UR |
| 81 | Joey Cantillo | CLE | Toby Quality Starts | -10 |
| 82 | Bailey Ober | MIN | Toby Quality Starts | -4 |
| 83 | Cody Ponce | TOR | Toby Quality Starts | +UR |
| 84 | Brayan Bello | BOS | Toby Quality Starts | -5 |
| 85 | Seth Lugo | KC | Toby Quality Starts | +UR |
| 86 | Landen Roupp | SF | Toby Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 87 | Tyler Mahle | SF | Toby Ratio Focused | -2 |
| 88 | Max Scherzer | TOR | Toby Wins Bonus | -2 |
| 89 | Quinn Priester | MIL | Toby Ratio Focused | -7 |
| 90 | Ryan Weiss | HOU | Toby Team Context Effect | +UR |
| 91 | Shane Smith | CWS | Toby Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 92 | Jack LeiterT17 | TEX | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 93 | Cristian Javier | HOU | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 94 | Zebby Matthews | MIN | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 95 | Mike Burrows | HOU | Frizzle Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 96 | Grant Holmes | ATL | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 97 | Grayson Rodriguez | LAA | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +UR |
| 98 | Spencer Arrighetti | HOU | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 99 | Jacob Lopez | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -7 | |
| 100 | Will Warren | NYY | Toby Wins Bonus | -5 |
Labels Legend
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
