Welcome to the ultimate guide to drafting Starting Pitchers for 2026 Fantasy Baseball. I’ve ranked the Top 400 (actually 430…) starting pitchers for the year ahead in an attempt to determine every SP who could help your fantasy teams this season.
However, before you scroll down to the Top 1-20, it’s incredibly important that you read this introduction. It highlights how I rank pitchers and why this is not a projection of the end of season Player Rater. It’s my strategy of how I draft pitchers, embracing the burn and churn nature of the game.
Remember, these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation. I’ve also added the Top 100 SP table at the bottom of this article.
For a table of the entire 400 SP (really 430!) and to read this article Ad-Free (or to simply support me for putting all of this together!), make sure to subscribe to PL+ or PL Pro where I have these rankings inside a massive Google Sheet, with my blurbs included. You can access the sheet inside our subscriber Discord.
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Read The Notes
Tier 21 – Potenital 2026 Stud Prospect (Cont’d)
126. Jaxon Wiggins (CHC, RHP, AAA, Age 24) – Watch Video
Jaxon was promoted to Triple-A last season after returning 83 strikeouts in just 68.1 frames between A+ and AA prior, presenting an opportunity for one more call to majors this year. The electricity is clear with 97/98 mph velocity and solid two-plane break on his four-seamer, mixed with a “cutter” that looks like a gyro slider with a touch more lift than ideal, and a changeup with proper drop for LHB. The question is his control and ability to maintain his upper 90s velocity throughout starts. If he hits the ground running in Triple-A this year, he’ll become a spec-add the moment he gets the call. It’s hard to deny velocity like that with a whiffable slider.
127. Hagen Smith (CHW, LHP, AA, Age 22) – Watch Video
Hagen got his money’s worth in 2025 after missing time with elbow soreness – according to James Fegan of FanGraphs, Smith experimented consistently with leg kicks to find the right timing and he’s still working on perfecting his delivery to maintain his mid-to-upper 90s velocity and MLB-ready control. His heater and slider from the left side are absolutely elite and are sure to enamor fans the moment he arrives, while the addition of a third pitch will be the final piece of the puzzle to keep him going deep into games and preventing long at-bats. It could be a slower breaker, maybe a kick-change, maybe a cutter or sinker, whatever it is, I’m sure it’ll make an appearance in Triple-A this year, en route to a promotion this summer. Smith is an auto-add the moment he gets the call.
128. Noah Schultz (CHW, LHP, AAA, Age 22) – Watch Video
He’s a six-foot-ten southpaw who looms over batters and dares them to attack his heaters at 95/96 mph while keeping changeups away from RHB and sliders down-and-away from LHB. He looks destined to be a force in the majors, but health has gotten in the way recently in the form of a knee injury that interrupted his time in Triple-A. As long as he’s good to go this year, Schultz is likely to plow through April and May, demanding a callup this summer, creating a spring to the waiver wire. Yes, he’s legit and could be great from the moment he arrives, even if the Shag Rug will appear through bouts of chaotic command.
129. Brody Hopkins (TBR, RHP, AA) – Watch Video
Hopkins is the real deal. He sits mid-to-upper 90s and flirts with 100 with a low release point that amplifies whiffs upstairs. Both his breakers register upper 80s velocity (curve and sweeper), which are elite velocities for that kind of movement. Throw in a low-90s cutter and you have a full arsenal that should dominate, and that ignores a low-90s changeup. With such big stuff, control is often a problem and Hopkins is no exception. However, the Rays have limited depth this season, and I’d consider Hopkins inside the Top 10 SP options for the season, with Boyle, Seymour, and possibly Rock ahead. If he gets the call and has expressed decent control, he’s very much worth the spec add.
130. Luis Perales (WAS, RHP, AAA) – Watch Video
Perales was involved in a 1-for-1 swap with the Red Sox last year, in a common case of command & extension southpaw vs. over-the-top high octane right-hander. Perales’ high release point gives him cut-action on his 99 mph four-seamer at 18-19″ of vert (still good even with the arm angle), and pairs with 90 mph cutter with a bit more cut than most. It can absolutely work, but we haven’t seen much of him since returning from TJS in September – only two frames and some time in the AFL. As long as it’s smooth sailing in Triple-A, Perales should be the first one to the nation’s capital when an arm is needed.
131. Daniel Espino (CLE, RHP, AAA, Age 25) – Watch Video
Is this the year we finally see Espino in the majors? He profiles as an elite arm who has dealt with injury after injury, but the Guardians still have him on their 40-man and if he’s looking healthy early, the Guardians may consider a quick promotion to bank as many bullets as Espino has left in his arm. He throws 97+ mph with a legit mid-to-upper 80s cutter/slider and who knows how the Guardians will play this. If he gets the call, just add him.
132. Alex Clemmey (WAS, LHP, AA) – Watch Video
He’s a great southpaw with mid-90s velocity, and earned 136 punchouts in roughly 117 frames across A+ and AA last season. He’ll likely get promoted soon and if the walk rate can come down against better talent, Clemmey will get the chance to impress at the big-league level this season, assuming the Nationals aren’t intending to tank with the rotation they currently feature.
133. Carlos Lagrange (NYY, RHP, AA) – Watch Video
I’ve been covering a lot of these prospects and watching the video above is just pure JOY. Peaking at 103 mph, Lagrange is no stranger to strikeouts, sending 104 batters to the dugout in just 78.1 frames in Double-A last season + another 64 in A+ ball in 42.2 innings. That’s nearly 170 strikeouts in 120 innings, which is flat out absurd. He does so with the heater and a 88-90 mph slider/cutter, mid 80s sweeper, and low 90s changeup, though his long limbs create timing issues that can cause phases where he can’t find the zone. That may ultimately force Carlos into a reliever role, but if he can discover control, boy oh BOY is he going to be fun to watch as a starter. I was cackling away and hope he gets his shot soon. JUST FIND THE ZONE KID.
Tier 22 – Toby 15-Team
134. Yusei Kikuchi (LAA, LHP)
It was surprising to look back and see Kikuchi return three months of a sub 3.00 ERA in 2025 (early May through early August), though even during this cherry-picked peak, Kikuchi still had a 1.35 WHIP. In other words, he was awfully fortunate when it went well. That doesn’t sound encouraging. Sure isn’t.
Kikuchi has been mostly two-pitch for a while, leaning heavily on his slider and four-seamer to get things done, with the occasional bursts of higher curveball usage and the rare night where he can actually locate his changeup to RHB. This is no SWATCH – Kikuchi’s attack is based on a flat 1.5 HAVAA four-seamer with good extension at 95 mph that can be excellent upstairs, especially when he throws sliders for strikes and keeps it at 88 mph or harder. Sadly, command has never been a facet of Kikuchi’s game, turning him into a HIPSTER at best with starts of double-digit strikeouts seemingly out of nowhere, only to look inefficient and get torched in the next outing. After all, none of his pitches held a SwStr rate above 15% to LHB or RHB last year, while the fastball and slider failed to do their part to LHB and were demolished for over 45% ICR each.
Avoid the pain and anxiety. If you’re feeling lucky, pick up Kikuchi for a few starts and hope you find yourself with a hefty strikeout boon. I suggest you search for your punchouts elsewhere, unless volume is all you need. He’s roughly 170 frames in each of his last three seasons and will fan a batter per inning with a chance to hit double-digit Wins. But those ratios, oh dear.
Quick Take: Kikuchi isn’t destined to feature stellar ratios but they’ll do enough to anchor his ceiling even with a fourth straight 165+ IP season ahead. Those needing strikeouts and a flirtation with 10+ Wins should consider Kikuchi, though the start-to-start performance will be aggravating as you witness Kikuchi’s volatility first-hand. His ratio floor is too suspect for 12-teamers, and possibly 15-teamers as well.
135. Casey Mize (DET, RHP)
Oh Mize. The four-seamer has deadzone movement and a neutral attack, which has batters hunting it constantly as he locates it upstairs at 95 mph – even with Mize’s near 7 feet of extension. His sinker does an incredible job of earning strikes (80% clip!) and splitting time with the four-seamer inside, while the slider/cutter thing and splitter both are effective enough against RHB to justify theft of his four-seamer’s focus. Use that heater as a surprise pitch 10-15% of the time and stop going away with it, yeah? Let the sinker, splitter, and slider do the rest.
For LHB, it’s a little similar. The fastball still gets hit hard, but Mize’s feel for strikes on his splitter is still there (68% strikes!). Its ability to get over the plate pushed Mize over 30% usage of the pitch, but it was destroyed constantly. My theory is simple: Batters go four-seamer hunting and the splitter often hangs close enough to the heater that batters can make the quick adjustment and find the barrel. The solution? Twofold. Throw more of the effective slider (68% strikes and 31% ICR at just 19% usage last year to LHB) instead of the four-seamer and work on getting the splitter down. It’s not a perfect answer (splitters are volatile, that fastball will still get hit, more sliders may make them less effective, etc.), but it’s something he can do to steer the ship.
It wouldn’t take a whole lot for Mize to turn from a near 1.30 WHIP into a sub 1.20 mark with his low 6% walk rate. Just have to find a little less hard contact and bring down the hits-per-nine under 9.0 for just the second time of his career. That seems like a tall order. It probably is, given how he has rough feel for spin and the slider/cutter has been a work in progress for a long time. At least he has the runway to keep tweaking until something clicks.
Quick Take: Mize’s four-seamer is too dang hittable and it’s a problem. Without a good feel for spin, his splitter is the main weapon to LHB and should be more of a focus to RHB, while we can only hope he is comfortable with his slider/cutter/whatever that is to be thrown 25% of the time to both handed batters. He’ll be given a long leash in the Tigers’ rotation to figure it out, making him an interesting late round flier based on opportunity. If he doesn’t have the breaker and continues to brute force the four-seamer, step away quickly.
136. Dustin May (STL, RHP)
Boy, I sure was in on May entering April last year. He was fully recovered from TJS and his horrific esophagus injury and ready to soak innings for the Dodgers, displaying 97/98 mph velocity the last time we saw him. Welp, he wasn’t close to the same arm when he returned. May sat 94-96 mph across the season and failed to find an approach he could replicate for success. Early on, it became a whole bunch of sinkers and sweepers, the former failing to get inside enough, and the latter featuring fantastic sweeper and depth at 85 mph, allowing him to keep his head above water but not find his footing. After experimenting with changeups, cutters, and four-seamers in the mix, May ended the year in September with an injury, ending a disappointing season for everyone involved – especially Red Sox fans. I still can’t believe that trade happened.
And yet, I’m kinda interested. That’s ridiculous. I know, it is. That said, is there a better landing spot for May than the Cardinals? They generally have an above-average defense and play in a great pitcher’s park, and May will have a long leash each outing without a single breath on his neck to instill fear of losing his gig. Maybe he changes his arm slot again to find the 96+ mph velocity, or maybe he gets the feel for the sinker or cutter. I don’t know, I simply imagine May wouldn’t be exactly the same as last year. Perhaps another year removed from TJS provides a better opportunity to get into rhythm, especially with a normal off-season and no concern of job security. Upside hunting starts with opportunity and past success, and what do you know, Dustin could check into your lineups by…late April.
Quick Take: May was a massive disappointment in 2025. The Cardinals present him with a phenomenal opportunity for a rebound season, and I wouldn’t overlook the chance he finds a rhythm locating his pitches and taking advantage of his lively sweeper, cutter, and sinker movement. He’s a sleeper in 15-teamers and deeper, while 12-team managers can sit back and wait for a good time to strike.
137. Justin Verlander (DET, RHP)
You may have seen Verlander struggle in the first half of the season and forgotten about him. I get it, we all tune out at some point. What you would have missed was 42-year-old Verlander (Eno calls him the modern Nolan Ryan) returning a 2.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with a 23% strikeout rate across his final thirteen games of the season. Now 43-years-old for the season ahead, he’s off to Detroit for what may be his swan song for his home team, and I gotta say, that’s pretty dang cool.
Cool enough to roster? Honestly, maybe. At the very least in 15-teamers where Verlander will continue to plow a good two-plane four-seamer upstairs to RHB and pair it with a whiffable slider and high 36% CSW curveball to steal called strikes, and we could see the sinker we saw just seven times sprinkled around the start of summer make a proper appearance for one final new trick. Don’t you dare call him an old dog.
That heater struggled immensely against LHB, though, and his vicious slider wasn’t enough to stave off 50% ICR across 43% usage. Yikes. That’s an issue he’ll have to sort out – maybe the changeup feel improves from a 56% strike rate and can be featured more than 14% of the time, or it’s possible the curve lands down a little more often instead of hanging out inside the zone for demolition. At any rate, the Tigers are going to let Verlander go as long as his heart will let him, creating Quality Start opportunities for those who need it, filling out the resume of our Toby poster child for the year ahead. On paper, at least.
Quick Take: Verlander is back in Detroit and his stellar slider has kept the whiffs flowing as his four-seamer and curveball aren’t what they used to be. The Tigers will likely let Verlander toss 90+ pitches as often as his body will let him, creating a volume arm for deeper formats who could hold a 20%+ strikeout rate and possibly provide worthy ratios. However, the upside is too limited to chase in 12-team formats, save for moments where a Win or QS streamer are needed.
138. Clay Holmes (NYM, RHP)
Ah yes, The Adobe. He’s a unique starter who is able to throw sinkers for weak contact to both LHB and RHB, acting as a proper sinker that he targets down-and-gloveside at all times, but often misses over the plate. Doesn’t matter, he still has 30-35% ICR marks with it, catalyzing Holmes’ overall 60% groundball rate. The other pitches aren’t quite helping enough, though.
For LHB, it’s a kick-changeup he matches with the sinker down-and-away, but it’s most effective in two-strike counts, while the pitch is not a reliable strike offering to climb back into counts or end at-bats early. His slider and cutter aim to be those pitches, but neither earns enough strikes or evades demolition effectively enough to get me excited. At least he’s trying to make the cutter up-and-in work.
One setback as a starter was the effectiveness of Holmes’ sweeper. It flirted with a 20% SwStr rate in 2024, but fell to a feeble 11% clip to RHB in 2025, failing to be the putaway pitch Holmes needs badly. The harder and safer slider has tried to fill the gap away and off the plate, though neither is truly the #2 pitch Holmes needs when his sinker isn’t doing everything he wants it to.
With all groundball-sinker focused arms, WHIP is expected to be elevated as groundballs return higher BABIPs than flyballs. In concert with a lack of strike-earning secondaries that return higher walk rates, his WHIP should balloon once again to 1.25+, even without a 10% walk rate or sitting under a hit per inning. Those extra baserunners and fewer strikes equate to a shocking eight quality starts this past year, racking up pitch counts quickly and preventing a long outing.
He’s made for deeper leagues who are chasing a potential sub 4.00 ERA season with double-digit Wins, though it doesn’t seem worth it unless Holmes figures out his secondaries to putaway batters efficiently and find better counts.
Quick Take: Holmes’ sinker-first approach induces more hits than his contemporaries, while his unreliable secondaries inflate his walk rate. The combination snowballs into a slew of baserunners and deeper counts, capping Holmes’ ceiling as he’s usually kicked out before the end of the sixth. Until he finds more whiffs and returns consistent strikes, I’d look elsewhere.
139. David Peterson (NYM, LHP)
He’s a 15-teamer HIPSTER like Dean Kremer, though I can see how he breaks those chains and because a reliable Holly. The problem? It would require consistent command, which Peterson simply doesn’t have. He has SWATCH potential with four-seamers up, sinkers away to RHB (lots of grounders, which adds to the volatility), and a changeup that can be a major factor to RHB, but it returned a poor 13% SwStr rate last season as he failed to spot it as desired. There’s also a whiffable slider to RHB, which struck out many batters…and also allowed a whole lot of damage when he hung it over the plate. HIPSTER.
He’s generally got the situation on lockdown against LHB, with some questionable luck this past year on his sinker/slider approach. The sinker induced an elite 66% STR-ICR (he throws strikes and induces weak contact!), while the slider turned a 27% SwStr rate…and 40% ICR. Those are mistakes, y’all.
The final point of fun is his 94th percentile extension that amplifies each of his offerings when he properly spots them. He’s your dropped steak – do you dare risk the five-second rule or move on to something else? Can you really do that to steak? With WHIP marks routinely at 1.30 and higher, you can’t lean on Peterson for a full season, but as a streamer? Sure, he’s capable. At least he has job security and a long leash, which could mean this is the year it all comes together. Probably not.
Quick Take: Peterson has a whiffable slider, a sinker that earns grounders, and a four-seamer + changeup that can each be a menace when located, but hot dang is he inconsistent with his command. the volume is there with 23-25% strikeout upside, but the WHIP anchor and volatility is too much to endure outside of streaming chance in 12-teamers.
140. Matthew Liberatore (STL, LHP)
I guess Liberatore is the ace of the staff. Oh how the turntables. I can’t tell you that I’m particularly enthused about Liberatore’s prospective 2026 campaign leading the staff, but there are clear signs that he could be better than he has been, turning into a standard Toby or even a Holly if everything clicks right. How much is everything. It’s a lot, just ask PL senior analyst Nate Schwartz next time you run into him. His 94 mph four-seamer fluctuates its velocity from start to start, ranging from 92+ and peaking at 95 mph, but regardless of heat, it’s mediocre. He keeps it away to LHB to little success and poor strike rates, while it’s far too hittable to RHB as he casually hurls it over the plate. At least there’s a sinker to LHB that generated, checks notes, one whiff on 122 thrown to LHB last season and has abysmal movement. Maybe it’s because, oh I don’t know, it had 1st percentile inside location to LHB. I just don’t understand that. Aren’t the Cardinals old-school and teach the inside sinker? Times have changed, old man. Yes, the four-seamer had an excellent ICR to LHB, but it was due to its few batted balls (56% strike rate!), and it won’t stick. What may stick are the secondaries.
Liberatore’s slider, cutter, and curveball are solid against LHB. The curve is tugged a bit more than I’d like, but the slider and cutter land away with ease and generate whiffs aplenty + weak contact. Keep doing that and just throw the sinker inside. Please.
Liberatore could be a SWATCH, but that requires him to have a tight changeup, of course, and I don’t believe he does. His slowball has 8th percentile drop at 88 mph and is not a weapon feared by RHB. As a result, he throws it nearly exclusively early in the count, returning a ton of balls in play that find gloves often (.172 BABIP last year with just -3 hit luck is great!), turning to the slider for punchouts. The problem is the stuff in-between: poor four-seamers, curveballs that still hold a sub 60% strike rate, and an inconsistent feel for the cutter. We’ve seen moments where it all comes together, but even then, the stuff isn’t all that impressive. He needs peak command to be that Toby rock we want him to be, especially with a whole lot of potential volume coming his way. I need to see a significant improvement before hanging my hat on this.
Quick Take: Liberatore has the opportunity to be a volume arm in 15-teamers, but he needs more consistency and precision to settle down in your 12-teamer rotations. The changeup is far from what we like from southpaws, and his sinker is misused against LHB, forming a mold of an odd lefty who I don’t want to latch onto.
141. Slade Cecconi (CLE, RHP)
Nah. Keep banging on my door Slade Brigade, you know this ain’t it. Slade’s four-seamer is rough, to say the least. It allowed over 50% ICR to both LHB and RHB last season, and while I like that he elected to pull down its usage to split time with a sinker to RHB, I’m not a major fan of the new offering, especially with his lack of enthusiasm to get the thing inside to RHB.
Slade was a pickup for some once he claimed a rotation spot in early May, twirling 55 frames of a 3.44 ERA and 24% strikeout rate in ten starts, though it came with an 85% LOB rate and 1.27 WHIP that made it awfully clear it wasn’t going to last. Those strikeouts were a product of his curveball boasting a 30% putaway rate to LHB, and a near 20% SwStr on his new slider, both of which have a chance to keep Slade around 22% strikeout rate for the season if at their respective peaks. Still, even with that hope, his fastballs are just so dang hittable. I’m in shock his four-seamer held a .261 BABIP to LHB last year (yes, despite a 55% ICR and average flyball and groundball rate), and that surely isn’t going to stick for 2026. I can’t encourage this.
Quick Take: Cecconi had some moments last season where his breakers did work and his fastballs weren’t clobbered. Unless he’s able to squeeze more out of his slider and curve to RHB/LHB, respectively, Slade is an arm reserved for AL-Only leagues.
142. Brady Singer (CIN, RHP)
I know we all hate this game, but Singer’s 4.03 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across 32 starts transform into a 3.38 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP after removing two disaster starts of 7 ER in 2.1 IP. That’s 30 starts of prime Toby goodness + two days of despair. For those in 12-teamers, that’s great. Roto boiz, it doesn’t matter.
I do that exercise to outline the extremes, which are generally not the pitcher you see start-to-start. Singer showcased a Toby who has slowed down his slider for more movement over the last two years and is still figuring out how to get it back to 60%+ strikes against RHB, but the slider generally does its job while I dream for the sinker to jam RHB more. Sadly, LHB are still his greatest foe, as his sinker fares even worse and sliders, cutters, and the rare four-seamers simply aren’t enough to prevent the 55%+ ICR on the pitch. Yikes.
When Singer was traded from Kansas City to Cincinnati, it made sense given Singer’s groundball tendencies, which would limit the damage done by his small home park. And for the most part, yes, that was true – Singer had a 1.01 HR/9, the lowest of his career since 2021 – but his groundball rate plummeted to just 43%, lengths away from his expected 50% clip. That’s all on the sinker, which he refused to land low like he used to, dropping its loLoc 10-15 points to LHB and RHB. Maybe that’s completely fine given the lack of HRs and explains the drop in BABIP (grounders –> flyballs = lower BABIP), though Singer without the groundball tendencies in Cincinnati doesn’t seem like a pairing worthy of a 3.75 ERA and sub 1.20 WHIP, right?
Quick Take: Singer’s inability to find a new weapon (the cutter seems like it could work, but hasn’t yet, and the four-seamer for two-strikes is meh at best) merged with fewer grounders, has me worried for the year ahead. The package is a decent floor in 15-teamers without the ceiling you’re looking for in 12-teamers. You’ll be able to find a Toby off the wire in-season if you need one, trust me.
143. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI, RHP)
Oh Pfaadt. It was a mess of a season, trying his best to experiment with his arsenal and keep his head above water. The fact of the matter is that he boasts a poor four-seamer and an average sinker, which forces his secondaries to excel further than their grasp. That said, he did make one major improvement in the second half: 22% cutters to LHB. Pfaadt is impeccable at jamming this pitch inside to LHB with minimal damage (often a foul ball or a weak ball in play) for 70%+ strikes, finally introducing a weapon he sorely needed to LHB. That said, he’ll still need to have success with backdoor breakers and a proper changeup to take down LHB, while the sinker/sweeper has to be good enough for RHB. There is a way this can still work, especially with his long leash and ceiling of going all nine frames on his very best days.
Quick Take: Pfaadt is far too much of a risk to roster out of the gate in 12-teamers without a deadly weapon at his disposal. There is room for growth with a new and highly effective cutter to LHB entering the picture in the second half of 2025, which could soften his floor, and allow for a waiver wire pickup if everything clicks early.
144. Mitch Keller (PIT, RHP)
Not this again. The one thing Keller brings to the table is volume. That means his 4.19 ERA and 1.26 WHIP from last year came with 17 Quality Starts (over half of his outings!) as those ratios speak to some great days and some poor days. He’s not going to pitch exactly to those ratios all season, of course. How does he get to the finish line? With as much thrill as a bus sitting in traffic. He’ll get there, but can I just get there already? Why does it have to smell like this while I wait? Keller’s fastballs are deadzone with average velocity, making his sinker the more effective one of the pair as RHB hope to see the four-seamer and get the sinker on the inner half instead, often rolling over for an out. That said, HUGE props to Keller for his HR prevention on his four-seamer across the last two seasons against RHB – He allowed 14 HR combined from 2021-2023, and hasn’t allowed one since. What’s that? Oh, he still allowed HRs, of course. Just against LHB (6 HR off the four-seamer last year alone). Womp womp.
There are some days that Keller has his sweeper or slider earning whiffs to RHB, and that’s all rad and dandy when it shows up, but it’s mostly for RHB (just one pitch returned above a 9% SwStr rate to LHBs last year – his slider that was thrown just 12% of the time and heavily in two-strike counts), and I can’t endorse a pitcher who returned a 41-48% ICR on 87% of his pitches against LHB last year (his changeup was okay…?).
If you want to go for Keller, you must be in a deep league that loves Quality Starts. And that’s cool! Heck, I’d even say you can stream Keller here and there in 12-teamer QS leagues. But hot dang, please don’t settle for this. You could do so much more with your draft pick.
Quick Take: Keller’s best asset is his volume – three straight seasons of max starts with a long leash – but you’re better off not having his ratios root your team from taking off, especially over such a large number of frames. His fastballs are too hittable and he lacks overwhelming secondaries to take over games, making him a streamer in QS leagues, and a target only for 15-teamers at the shallowest.
145. Jameson Taillon (CHC, RHP)
Taillon is a tinkerer in the best way. He features a wide arsenal and throws strikes at will, helping him lean into the Cubs’ defense while limiting free passes. Unfortunately, it comes with a poster on his wall with 20% strikeout rate in a jazzed font, dreaming of its return. In addition, if Taillon doesn’t have the best feel for his arsenal on a given day, the raw stuff will do little to save him, creating nights that crater his ratios across the steady season.
I wonder what tweaks we’ll see this year. His embrace of a kick-change was incredible, creating a true weapon against LHB for the first time in…forever? – Its 20% SwStr rate is a beautiful sight and even with a few too many floating into the middle of the zone, his ability to keep it under the four-seamer suggests it will be favored more than its 20% usage last season, especially after pushing it near 30% in his final three starts. Love that.
I have some concerns about the four-seamer above it against LHB, which did an impeccable job of nailing the corners in the first half, then landed middle-away in the second, causing more damage than ideal. The curveball appears often as a called strike pitch, but he needs an offering to go inside to LHB and prevent them from leaning out. It wasn’t the cutter last year – 8% usage as an outside surprise called strike – but its sizeable horizontal bend makes me wonder if he can turn it into a surprise inside pitch for those expecting his 45% usage four-seamer away. Stop me if you’ve heard that before.
He’s not the most thrilling starter out there, but he’s awfully serviceable and a perfect fit on the Cubs. You can stare at the 4.19 and 4.57 xFIP of his last two seasons all you like, this is a pitcher who deserves his sub 4.00 ERAs of the past two seasons and I’m willing to wager he can do so again, while returning another 65%+ QS rate. Follow the schedule and I’d rather chance this than an unknown HIPSTER.
Quick Take: The sub 20% strikeout rate is unappealing, but the ratios are not. He’s a pitcher who leans into his advantages: Great defense behind him, low walk rate, wide array, and ability to wield his pitches as he needs to. There’s even more upside than expected with an improved changeup that should see an uptick across 2026. He’s safer than you think.
146. Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI, LHP)
It may sound strange to advocate for a pitcher with back-to-back 5.00+ ERA and 1.50+ WHIP seasons, but Erod really deserves better. He’s built as a SWATCH with a changeup that – I kid you not – had a +22 hit luck in 2025 despite a 1.5% mistake rate. No, that’s not typical for Eduardo’s slowball, which showed few signs of degradation, including a decent enough 37% ICR that in no way outlines such a flurry of hits for a pitch consistently down-and-gloveside to RHB. That’s all there is to say about the fella – his changeup should perform better in 2026, allowing him to be a streamer in-season when we can be sure the results have normalized. Consider Rodriguez a deep-league sleeper given his recent results.
Quick Take: He’s a 15-team Toby who had horrific fortune last season with his changeup. Expect that to positively regress, allowing for a potential QS arm in deeper formats, and a here-and-there streaming option in standard leagues.
147. Michael Wacha (KCR, RHP)
Wacha is what he is – a changeup first right-hander without a whole lot else going on. His ability to limit walks and HRs has allowed Wacha to return a sub 4.00 ERA and sub 1.25 WHIP in each of his last four seasons, though the dimensions changing in Kansas City may propel him above a 4.00 ERA in the year ahead. A two tick drop in changeup velocity led to less domination against LHB, while the four-seamer continues to be a pain point that I hope the cutter can alleviate with an increase in usage this season. Consider Wacha a sleeper in your AL-Only leagues for his quality ratios over the years with the chance of redeeming his lost strikeouts (his changeup’s putaway rate plummeted dramatically), though his step back last year may be the final one before the cliff.
Quick Take: Wacha has quietly produced stellar ratios across four straight seasons, but a dip in efficiency on his signature changeup in 2025 could spell the beginning of the end in 2026. Nevertheless, there’s still hope his putaway rates can normalize and bring his strikeout rate back to 20%, especially if the cutter can bear a larger load.
148. Nick Martinez (TBR, RHP)
After the initial trio of Pepiot, Rasmussen, and McClanahan, it starts to get a bit rough. The Rays did their thing and signed a volume guy to fill in the gaps, and I think NickMart is a fantastic fit for Tampa Bay. He tossed 165+ frames last year across 26 starts and 14 relief appearances in a season where his filthy changeup wasn’t at its peak. Martinez had to adjust by leaning into inside sinkers to RHB with high four-seamers and away cutters – all inducing sub-40% ICR – then hope Koufax was kinda against LHB, with the trio getting hit hard and often. I’m thankful he’s away from Cincy and in pitcher-friendly Tropicana now, which should bring his ratios back to serviceable levels.
Don’t overlook him as a volume arm in AL-Only leagues or even deep 15-teamers, as Martinez will get the chance to find 5+ frames often. I need to see a redemption season from his changeup before trusting him as a streamer, and I hope he finds a solution for LHB to give it a strong companion.
Quick Take: Moving to Tampa Bay is perfect for Martinez. He’ll have a secure rotation spot and pitch in a much better home park, while I trust the Rays to work with Martinez to find the right mix for his wide arsenal. It makes him a pitcher of consideration as a Toby in 15-teamers, especially if the changeup gets back into form.
149. Luis Severino (ATH, RHP)
The best part about Severino? His workload. Sevy is sure to be a key part of the Athletics‘ rotation once again, starting every five days with a 90+ pitch leash. But do you want him to? There isn’t a stellar element in his arsenal, starting with a pair of 96 mph heaters that get strikes but few whiffs (and a 50% ICR on the four-seamer, yikes). The attack for RHB is an 11% SwStr sweeper (yuck), while his cutter is arguably the best pitch of the crew as a solid neutralizer to LHB. Severino commands it well inside and induced tons of weak contact to LHB, churning quick outs. In fact, it’s so good I’d suggest it becomes his primary attack to LHB over his four-seamer. In addition, the sinker’s feel to land inside to RHB overshadows the away four-seamer, making me believe a sinker/cutter approach is best for Sevy, utilizing sweepers and four-seamers more as chase pitches and strikeout offerings than early jabs.
This is all ignoring his home park that doesn’t change in 2026 – the oh-so-terrifying Sacré Verde. If you want to make it easy and “don’t start him there”, why would you want a questionable arm who you’d only even consider starting for half his starts? This is AL-Only play for his potential volume, or a 15-teamer streamer on the road.
Quick Take: Severino lacks a whiff pitch in his arsenal and gets hit far too hard to consider in 12-teamers. With a long leash and regular starts, he has the opportunity were he to improve his sweeper or transition to a ground-ball arm via sinker and cutters, but the team context and horrific floor without strikeout promise makes him an easy avoid.
Tier 23 – Injury Stash 2
150. Corbin Burnes (ARI, RHP)
Burnes underwent TJS in June and we hope he can return by the All-Star break. Think of Burnes like Bradish or Bieber from 2025: Not a whole lot of volume, but a veteran arm who can fall right back into things the moment he gets the green light. It’s possible his elbow was the reason his cutter’s drop was reduced over the last few seasons, too, which could bring back the overall dominance, though the reasonable expectation is helpful ratios with a strikeout per inning. Considering how Eury, Bradish, and Bieber were rarely stashed all season in standard 12-teamers, I don’t feel the need to draft Burnes over other early injured arms.
Quick Take: Burnes is recovering from his June ’25 TJS surgery and isn’t expected back until the All-Star Break at the earliest. The easiest comp is Bieber or Bradish from this past season, and all we can do is hope he can be a producer across six frames when he returns.
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garrett CrochetT1 | BOS | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | PIT | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 3 | Tarik Skubal | DET | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 4 | Bryan WooT2 | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Ratio Focused | - |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 6 | Max Fried | NYY | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 7 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 9 | Hunter Greene | CIN | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 10 | Hunter Brown | HOU | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 11 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 12 | Logan WebbT3 | SF | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 13 | Joe Ryan | MIN | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 14 | Freddy Peralta | NYM | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | +2 |
| 15 | Jacob deGromT4 | TEX | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +3 |
| 16 | Cole Ragans | KC | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -2 |
| 17 | George Kirby | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts Injury Risk | -2 |
| 18 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +1 |
| 19 | Chris Sale | ATL | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +1 |
| 20 | Kyle BradishT5 | BAL | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -3 |
| 21 | Eury Pérez | MIA | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 22 | Nick Pivetta | SD | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 23 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 24 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | Ace Potential Ratio Focused | -1 |
| 25 | Cam Schlittler | NYY | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | - |
| 26 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 27 | Framber Valdez | DET | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 28 | Michael KingT6 | SD | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 29 | Dylan Cease | TOR | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 30 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +12 |
| 31 | Kevin GausmanT7 | TOR | Holly Quality Starts | +5 |
| 32 | Trevor Rogers | BAL | Holly Quality Starts | +16 |
| 33 | Tatsuya Imai | HOU | Holly Quality Starts | +1 |
| 34 | Nolan McLean | NYM | Holly Wins Bonus | +1 |
| 35 | Bubba Chandler | PIT | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 36 | Trey Yesavage | TOR | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 37 | Cade Horton | CHC | Holly Wins Bonus | +10 |
| 38 | Robbie RayT8 | SF | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | +6 |
| 39 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | Ace Potential Quality Starts Injury Risk | +4 |
| 40 | Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -8 |
| 41 | Chase Burns | CIN | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -10 |
| 42 | Shane McClanahanT9 | TB | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -5 |
| 43 | Kris Bubic | KC | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +21 |
| 44 | Blake Snell | LAD | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -11 |
| 45 | Bryce MillerT10 | SEA | Holly Ratio Focused | +7 |
| 46 | Edward Cabrera | CHC | Holly Wins Bonus | -8 |
| 47 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | Holly Quality Starts | -8 |
| 48 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | Ace Potential Ratio Focused | -3 |
| 49 | Aaron Nola | PHI | Holly Quality Starts | +11 |
| 50 | MacKenzie GoreT11 | TEX | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | - |
| 51 | Emmet Sheehan | LAD | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | - |
| 52 | Ryan Weathers | NYY | Frizzle Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +2 |
| 53 | Nick LodoloT12 | CIN | Holly Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 54 | Sonny Gray | BOS | Holly Wins Bonus | -5 |
| 55 | Ranger Suarez | BOS | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 56 | Noah Cameron | KC | Holly Ratio Focused | - |
| 57 | Gavin Williams | CLE | Holly Strikeout Upside | - |
| 58 | Shane Baz | BAL | Holly Strikeout Upside Team Context Effect | -5 |
| 59 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | Holly Ratio Focused | -1 |
| 60 | Joe Musgrove | SD | Holly Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +2 |
| 61 | Zac Gallen | ARI | Holly Quality Starts | +9 |
| 62 | Brandon WoodruffT13 | MIL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -34 |
| 63 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -2 |
| 64 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | Ace Potential Quality Starts Injury Risk | -1 |
| 65 | Carlos Rodón | NYY | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 66 | Jared Jones | PIT | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +UR |
| 67 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -1 |
| 68 | Shane Bieber | TOR | Ace Potential Quality Starts Injury Risk | -9 |
| 69 | Matthew BoydT14 | CHC | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 70 | Luis Castillo | SEA | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 71 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 72 | Zach Eflin | BAL | Toby Quality Starts | - |
| 73 | Andrew PainterT15 | PHI | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 74 | Spencer Strider | ATL | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 75 | Logan Henderson | MIL | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 76 | Robby Snelling | MIA | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 77 | Braxton Ashcraft | PIT | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 78 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | Toby Hipster Wins Bonus | -3 |
| 79 | Jack Flaherty | DET | Hipster Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -5 |
| 80 | Kodai SengaT16 | NYM | Toby Quality Starts Injury Risk | +UR |
| 81 | Joey Cantillo | CLE | Toby Quality Starts | -10 |
| 82 | Bailey Ober | MIN | Toby Quality Starts | -4 |
| 83 | Cody Ponce | TOR | Toby Quality Starts | +UR |
| 84 | Brayan Bello | BOS | Toby Quality Starts | -5 |
| 85 | Seth Lugo | KC | Toby Quality Starts | +UR |
| 86 | Landen Roupp | SF | Toby Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 87 | Tyler Mahle | SF | Toby Ratio Focused | -2 |
| 88 | Max Scherzer | TOR | Toby Wins Bonus | -2 |
| 89 | Quinn Priester | MIL | Toby Ratio Focused | -7 |
| 90 | Ryan Weiss | HOU | Toby Team Context Effect | +UR |
| 91 | Shane Smith | CWS | Toby Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 92 | Jack LeiterT17 | TEX | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 93 | Cristian Javier | HOU | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 94 | Zebby Matthews | MIN | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 95 | Mike Burrows | HOU | Frizzle Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 96 | Grant Holmes | ATL | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 97 | Grayson Rodriguez | LAA | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +UR |
| 98 | Spencer Arrighetti | HOU | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 99 | Jacob Lopez | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -7 | |
| 100 | Will Warren | NYY | Toby Wins Bonus | -5 |
Labels Legend
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
