Welcome to the ultimate guide to drafting Starting Pitchers for 2026 Fantasy Baseball. I’ve ranked the Top 400 (actually 430…) starting pitchers for the year ahead in an attempt to determine every SP who could help your fantasy teams this season.
However, before you scroll down to the Top 1-20, it’s incredibly important that you read this introduction. It highlights how I rank pitchers and why this is not a projection of the end of season Player Rater. It’s my strategy of how I draft pitchers, embracing the burn and churn nature of the game.
Remember, these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation. I’ve also added the Top 100 SP table at the bottom of this article.
For a table of the entire 400 SP (really 430!) and to read this article Ad-Free (or to simply support me for putting all of this together!), make sure to subscribe to PL+ or PL Pro where I have these rankings inside a massive Google Sheet, with my blurbs included. You can access the sheet inside our subscriber Discord.
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Read The Notes
Tier 17 – Late Upside (Cont’d)
101. Reid Detmers (LAA, LHP)
Oh how I wish this would work. Detmers settled into a reliever role with the Angels after years of battling consistency and injuries as a starter, and he dominated. Well, kinda. His ratios weren’t great, but a 30% strikeout rate with a 16% SwStr and a 5.45 PLV is remarkable and there’s hope he’s figured something out that will translate once he returns to the first inning.
The largest bump is the one you should expect: velocity. Detmers went from 94+ to 96+ mph on his four-seamer and was able to sit upstairs with ease, which was exceptional to RHB and had an, uh, 75% ICR to LHB. As a southpaw! Yeesh. That’s not great.
The slider earned plenty of whiffs n all, but the pitch flailed and wrestled with Detmers, landing in poor spots often and also was hit for horrific ICR marks, this time to both LHB and RHB. Not exactly the destroyer of worlds you want to see.
His curveball is a big fella that earns a ton of called strikes against RHB as he flips it 25% of the time for over 60% strikes (that’s a solid rate for a low-swing curve), but isn’t much use against LHB. Neither is the sinker that he barely touches.
Where does that leave us? Clearly avoiding him in drafts. Wait, really? If Detmers was the same arm, I’d be cautious with the spotty command of his time as a starter still apparent in 2025, and I wouldn’t bank on his changeup re-appearing to help him become a magical SWATCH. Factor in a terrible defense and likely two ticks less velocity, and it’s Somebody I Used To Know. I.E. The same HIPSTER song all over again.
Quick Take: Detmers seems like a fun SP/RP play to get in on a reliever making the conversion. Sadly, the fastball velocity will come back down and his time in relief featured the same command issues we saw in years prior, with little indication for growth in his slider feel or expansion of his arsenal. This has HIPSTER written all over it, and I’ll hope he comes out dealing at the very least.
102. Reynaldo López (ATL, RHP)
To be honest, I completely forgot López even had a game last year. He started in March, had a worse fastball (but same velo!), and disappeared into the abyss of the IL with shoulder surgery shortly after. He’s expected to stretch out into a starter during the spring and return to the rotation, though it’s hard to believe he’ll be his stellar self again.
That said, if he’s available in the last round, he’s not the worst flier. Sure, I question if he can earn enough strikes with his breakers to hide his hittable four-seamer (especially LHB), but his slider gets a ton of whiffs and the curve has proven a lovely companion against LHB. If he’s out of the rotation or doesn’t look sharp early, let him go to the wire! Be free! And maybe you want to swap him before the season starts if he’s not on the bump the opening weekend – Don’t draft #5 SP, after all. At the very least, acknowledge the lost season and the value he presented as recently as 2024.
Quick Take: We had doubt he could replicate his absurd 1.99 ERA in 135 frames of 2024, and the pendulum swung hard in the other direction with a properly lost season. Now expected to return, it may be time to take a flier on ReyLó at the cost of free. If it’s more of the same, there’s a chance he surprises a second time.
Tier 18 – Possible Job Upside
103. Roki Sasaki (LAD, RHP)
The Dodgers are trying to make Sasaki work and I simply don’t see it. He’s a two-pitch arm (fastball/splitter) with a poor slider, an inconsistent splitter, and a fastball that doesn’t miss bats. I get the sense that I’m in the minority with this expectation, and I hope to be completely wrong, with a stellar display this spring, but recognize that Sasaki’s 96 mph four-seamer had a 5.5% SwStr across 300+ thrown (that’s about 17 whiffs total. We’ve seen starters earn that number in one game), partially due to his splitter and slider both failing to act as strike pitches, allowing batters to go fastball hunting at their leisure. Some pitchers can get away with that a bit, but not Sasaki, equipped with a deadzone heater and somewhat steep attack angle. There is some hope, though. The most obvious tweak is to add a sinker for RHB, leaning into the 7+ feet of extension, and make it difficult for batters to decide which heater is coming with less time than usual. Still, Sasaki has to also figure out a secondary to throw for strikes, and I can’t tell you that he will, let alone finding a non-sinker pitch to throw against LHB. Just put him in the pen, okay?
Quick Take: There’s too much to fix with Sasaki. With an arsenal featuring the depth of the protagonist’s best friend from a Hallmark Christmas film, batters comfortably hunt his deadzone 96 mph four-seamer. Even if he adds a sinker to help against RHB, the splitter and slider aren’t getting the job done, and it’s not wise to expect Sasaki to fix them both to a level that would vault him into 12-teamer relevance. It’s too much to ask and unless we see a completely new arm, the hope is for a HIPSTER label. Nah, I’m good.
104. Jacob Latz (TEX, LHP)
Say it with me y’all. Latz do this. Who said Laz Diaz?! I did. Oh, Mr. Diaz. Sorry, I’m kinda in the middle of something here, telling these fine folk about the possible fun in the latest hot SWATCH in town. You see, Latz still has times when he floats the changeup high, but it is a deadly offering with a 22% SwStr to RHB that dominates when sitting under the elevated 94 mph four-seamer that featurs 18″ of vert. And like a proper southpaw, he has a solid mid-80s slider that gets the job done against LHB, sitting down-and-away often for a 26% ICR and 65% strikes last season. And guess what? The changeup sometimes appears there too and wrecks em. It’s fun.
The biggest concern outside of keeping the slowball down is his four-seamer. The changeup limits its damage against RHB, but without a sinker to go inside to LHB, Latz has to lean heavily on the four-seamer as the foundational pitch for his slider, and it gets hit hard nearly half the time. It does induce plenty of pop-ups and generated a fair number of outs, but it’s a liability and he needs that dang sinker.
There isn’t much competition for Latz to steal the #5 spot, save for Rocker, who hasn’t displayed any sort of consistency across his career thus far. I like Latz as a discount SWATCH who could be more with a slight expansion of his arsenal, and if there’s any sort of velocity bump this spring, you know I’ll be all over this.
Quick Take: Latz looks to have the #5 SP slot for the Rangers and could be a steal late in drafts. His changeup misses a ton of bats, thanks to precision upstairs with a good four-seamer that needs a bit of help against LHB, even with the slider that does its job down-and-away. If we see any signs of improvement from Latz this spring (velocity, new pitch, etc.), I’d be very interested to snag him late in drafts.
105. Justin Wrobleski (LAD, LHP)
He gave me a jolt last season after displaying 93/94 mph velocity in a brutal outing in early April, showed up for 45 pitches in May that we brushed off, then got the pearl in the first against the Cardinals in June where he sat 97 mph across 104 pitches. It didn’t come with stellar command, but hot dang, 97 mph four-seamers! From Wrobo Cop! That velocity was roughly 96 mph the rest of the way, with a few games as the bulk man returning four Wins and two losses in the next seven games before settling in as a reliever for an inning or two the rest of the way. The Dodgers absolutely loved Wrobleski as their “we need random innings” guy throughout the season and I expect more of the same in 2026, though it’s possible he steps ahead of Sasaki and/or Casparius, without another arm entering the fray, especially when the inevitable IL stints arrive. I’m definitely interested in Wrobleski when the time comes, and I’m surprised at how good his supporting cast is. Five pitches all returned over 5.00 PLV marks last season against RHB (Four-seamer, curve, cutter, slider, sinker), each holding a 65%+ strike rate, and the heater returning a 17% SwStr rate. He doesn’t have as wide a skillset against LHB (sinker, slider, four-seamer), though there’s not much more you need as a southpaw, and the high four-seamer was saved well for strikeouts. Huh. I didn’t expect to be interested in Wrobleski, but that improved four-seamer is a gamechanger, and if he can keep that 96 mph velocity, he’ll be a great add if the Dodgers let him go over 80 pitches consistently.
Quick Take: Wrobleski has a chance to break camp in the rotation as the #6 SP for the Dodgers (or #5 if Snell isn’t ready), and if he’s still sitting 96 mph on four-seamers, I’m excited. He has surprising depth in his arsenal, elite control, and a heater he elevates effectively for strikeouts. Consider Wrobo Cop a sleeper for 2026, and monitor how the Dodgers use him in the spring.
106. Kyle Harrison (MIL, LHP)
The “prize” of the Devers trade, Harrison has suddenly been dealt to the Brewers with a clear path to playing time, albeit a possibility he gets beat by two others for a #4/#5 SP spot. It’s a better park and the comfort of Milwaukee should do him favors, though I’m hesitant to jump in, despite the addition of a 86/87 mph cutter (labeled as a slider often). The issues on the west coast stemmed from volatility inside the zone, while the curve and changeup were in-and-out on a given night. A cutter theoretically solves that issue, but the three games we saw in September came with an unreliable cutter, and my hopes for him to learn the pitch from Crochet are now dashed. The Triple-A data does look a bit better than the small sample under the stadium lights, though I’m skeptical he has found the stabilizer for a chaotic arm.
We also saw a dip in velocity to 93 mph (not 94/95 mph) and similar command volatility across his full pitch mix. And yet, I can still understand the hype. If Harrison can locate his heater upstairs, its 1.7 HAVAA will do the work for a high SwStr, and if he can confidently land changeups, curveballs, and hopefully a cutter in the zone at roughly 50% usage between them, well, there’s a pitcher that should work. But will it be at 94+? Will we ever be able to trust Harrison? It remains to be seen. I encourage caution with a HIPSTER label for now and hopefully proven wrong by May.
Quick Take: Harrison’s four-seamer has potential if he can wield it properly in the zone, while the new cutter remains to be seen as the final piece of the puzzle. Moving to the Brewers makes a starting gig out of camp far more likely, though I’m not ready to trust his command and arsenal quality right away. Harrison comes with too much anxiety for me in most situations.
107. Mick Abel (MIN, RHP)
I’m a believer. Abel’s 96/97 mph four-seamer comes with a generally flat attack angle and more vert than expected at his super low 28-degree angle, and he spots it beautifully. The heater lives upstairs at will, so much it makes Bailey Ober jealous and reminisce of days gone by. His two-plane 82/83 mph curve is his favorite breaker that can be a solid weapon to both LHB and RHB, while the rest of the arsenal needs a bit of polish. The slider is terribly spotted to RHB, and I’m curious if the sweeper we saw in his final appearances leap-frogs the pitch as the favored weapon to RHB moving forward. His changeup feel was chaotic as well, a terrible attribute for a pitch Abel is reliant upon to prevent a simple two-pitch mix to LHB. With the heater and curve as a foundation (plus a sinker that should have far more ride at his low arm slot – maybe a new grip will come?), I see a coachable young arm who could perform at a high level in the blink of an eye. When he gets his chance in the rotation this season, pay attention.
108. Parker Messick (CLE, LHP)
I’m a believer in Messick and it’s simple, really. He’s a command artist. His four-seamer and changeup separation to RHB is the dream of every SWATCH, the slider sits away to LHB with four-seamers nailing the high corner above them and sinkers jamming batters inside…it’s all just done right.
The changeup is sure to return a near 20% SwStr to RHB and I wonder if there’s more he’ll add to the attack in 2026 given the four-seamer’s questionable attributes. Maybe the curveball is enough at 15% usage to steal the strikes he needs, or maybe he can find a cutter. Wouldn’t that be swell.
There isn’t a whole lot more to discuss with Messick. He may be the odd one out come April with the least experience on his resume, but I prefer him more than Allen and Cantillo, simply because the fella knows how to spot his pitches consistently. As a SWATCH, it’s incredibly important and as he gets his feet under him in the majors, there’s more room to tinker here, add there, and produce consistently for a team that wants him to go 90+ pitches a night. Let’s hope he forces the Guardians to put him in the rotation at the end of March.
Quick Take: Messick’s strikezone plots are beautiful: Four-seamers and changeups are evenly split high-and-low against RHB, sliders and sinkers stay to their sides against LHB, and curves + surprise fastballs know their roles. That command as a SWATCH has me excited for Messick to form into a potential Holly over time, acting as a solid Toby once he has runway in the Guardians’ rotation.
109. Ben Casparius (LAD, RHP)
Let’s assume Casper were locked into a rotation spot for a moment. His 96 mph four-seamer features great vert and cut-action to earn 15%+ SwStr rates against both LHB and RHB (dope!), with a 92 mph cutter with elite horizontal break that carves up LHB inside and debilitates RHB expecting heaters (both under 30% ICR!), with a curveball for LHB, and a slider + sweeper for RHB, each returning 60%+ strikes against their respective batters. It’s a great mix and speaks to a #3/4 SP who would shoot up draft boards in 2027 after one season of regular starts.
But that’s not the case. The Dodgers didn’t let him toss more than 80 pitches last season (and just six games above 50 pitches), utilizing him more as a long reliever instead of allowing him to stretch out. Dodgeritis is a real thing – the Dodgers will shift around the roles of their young starters often, from skipping starts, limiting outings, moving to the pen/IL/minors, etc. – and even if granted a rotation spot out of camp, I worry he’ll be limited to ~80 pitches at best and eventually displaced instead of letting him stick around for an extended period and permanently shifting into the role. It’s frustrating and while I’m fine with that at the end of my drafts, be prepared for it if Casper does get a role. As of this very moment, I have Casparius under Wrobleski given Wrobo Cops’ longer starts last year, though who knows what happens. Pay attention, he’s a solid pitcher, even if the Shag Rug exists.
Quick Take: It’s all about role and volume. Casparius has the skill set to be a legit SP, but the Dodgers haven’t unleashed him, utilizing Casper as a long reliever with the rare moments as an SP/bulk arm, returning only six games with at least 50 pitches in 2026. The stellar horizontal movement on his 96 mph four-seamer and cutter speak to a great foundation + solid breakers round out the package well, but how we he be used? I’m pessimistic he’ll have a locked rotation spot with 80+ pitches a night, though a shaky Sasaki and possible injuries could present the opportunity early. He’s worth the spec add if given the chance.
110. Lucas Giolito (FA, RHP)
I’m at a loss for why Giolito doesn’t have a job yet, but I guarantee you, the moment we get a major pitching injury this off-season, Giolito will be packing his bags. It may set him back a start or two to begin the year, and I don’t think he’s so good to overlook the delay, nor the right elbow irritation he endured that prevented him from pitching at the end of the season. Still, when Giolito was cruising last year, he had 94 mph velocity upstairs with a whiffable slider and changeup, equipped to go six innings. He could very well showcase the same ability for a new club this year and I’d keep him in mind for Quality Start leagues. For now, I’d hold off drafting him until fully understanding the situation.
Quick Take: His lack of job + the elbow injury at the end of the year has me disinterested in draft Giolito at the moment. Consider him an in-season pick-up if the situation plays out well.
Tier 19 – Dope But No Job
111. Troy Melton (DET, RHP)
I’m infatuated, but cautious. Melton has deadzone movement on his fastballs, but 96+ mph with near seven feet extension and a 1.5 HAVAA on the four-seamer makes up for that, especially with Melton’s ability to sit in the upper third of the strikezone. He easily spots the slider under the four-seamer inside the zone (maybe a little too much in the zone) and the pair work wonders to RHB (with sinkers that need to get inside more often), saving the cutter, splitter, and curveball for LHB. His attack isn’t quite as effective there, where Melton is missing a clear whiff pitch. The splitter is, well, a splitter, and the slider has been the most effective swing-and-miss offering, but he fails to spot it frequently under the barrel of bats down-and-in. His cutter is my favorite of the bunch as a strike offering and it may be a case of his four-seamer needing to be the final blow, with the rest getting him to two strikes effectively.
His four-seamer foundation with a strong slider and cutter makes me excited to watch Melton develop when he gets his footing in the rotation, even if it should come with peaks and valleys typical of the Shag Rug. But when will that be? With the signing of Framber, Verlander, and Anderson and their set limitations of Melton in 2025, it’s possible the Tigers hold him in the minors until a clear spot appears in the rotation to keep his innings down after tossing 121 across the minors and majors last season (this is understand that Olson out for the year – he’s still SP #6/#7 at the moment) . You don’t like stashing players in drafts. No, I do not. Melton has all the signs of being a solid arm when he does go every five days, but it’ll likely be without six frames in the majority of them, with more volatility than we’d like. He’s a great pitcher, but without an overwhelming breaking ball, nor a fastball that makes everyone else question why they even try to pitch a baseball, Melton doesn’t carry a MUST DRAFT AND HOLD label. And at the
Quick Take: Melton should be a productive SP when he’s pitching every five days, worthy of your 12-teamers. His four-seamer is great and should have success, with a solid #2 in his slider, a productive cutter, and a developing curve & splitter. However, it’s unclear when he’ll get his proper shot in the Tigers’ rotation, and the upside isn’t as high as former elite prospects, lacking an elite overpowering offering.
112. Connelly Early (BOS, LHP)
I really like Connelly and I’m doing everything I can not to make the obvious pun, but…I…can’t…hold–IT’S A YEAR TOO EARLY. I really wish it weren’t and for many teams, Early would be penciled into the rotation from the get-go. However, the Red Sox have Sandoval and Crawford as options for the #5, the former without options and the latter with more volume in the majors. Meanwhile, Early tossed roughly 120 IP last season and I can understand if Boston wants to limit him a little in April and save him for a call up. Sigh. This is why I’ve lowered Early massively since my October rankings and I’d raise him up near the Top 50 if he finds a way to avoid the minors.
Why am I excited? Because he’s a wide six pitch arsenal southpaw, features 94+ mph heaters with above-average extension and attack angle, held a 91st percentile PLV, throws strikes, and somehow has whiffability across everything. Not one of his six offerings featured a SwStr rate under 14% (!) and all but one returned at least a 60% strike rate (59% on the curveball he features either 0-0 for called strikes or a strikeout pitch. So close.). In other words, he gets strikes. He gets whiffs. He has the toolset to survive third-time through the lineup. He’s dope. Eventually.
There are still some areas of polish left to add, let alone the dangerous beast of temptation we call Small Sample Size. There’s a possibility for Early to be a SWATCH with far more, but said changeup was arguably his worst offering of the bunch as the slowball failed to land down-and-away as it should. We also didn’t see him toss more than five frames in any of the four games he pitched, nor did he face a slew of LHB. Yeah, but what happened when he did? He spotted sinkers inside and breakers away beautifully. YEAH HE DID.
I’m a huge believer in Early long term and I’d add him the moment he arrives in Beantown. He’ll likely fail to hit the absurd strikeout rate above 30% from last season, but he’s Max Fried in a younger body. Great fastball command on the inside edge to both LHB and RHB, whiffable secondaries, and enough velocity to take full advantage of his situation, even if he falls to 92/93 mph as we saw in his brief time in Triple-A last year, albeit mostly in August. This works. I’m so in when he gets a proper shot. Maybe not as a true SP #1, but as a Holly you won’t drop after picking him up.
Quick Take: I’m a huge fan of Connelly’s wide arsenal from the left side. I’m not a fan of the high likelihood he starts the season in the minors. When he does arrive, expect an arsenal that misses bats, throws strikes, and can live through the sixth frame once allowed to go 90 pitches. I just hate stashing players in my draft, making him a waiver wire pickup. Sigh.
113. Payton Tolle (BOS, LHP)
If you told me Tolle was locked into a rotation spot and worked with Garrett Crochet on his cutter, I’d be ecstatic and all in. His four-seamer from the left side is as legit as it gets, even without the greatest command inside the zone. Its 96/97 mph with a flat attack angle and 7.5 feet of extension, which is elite across the board (that LHB velocity is ridiculous!) and he’s already comfortable hurling it into the zone without fear, carrying a 91st percentile zone rate on the pitch near 60%. But there’s little else. The cutter is still a work in progress, even if it came with positive results last season, and not another pitch was thrown 10% of the time to either LHB or RHB. With many other players available for the rotation and multiple minor league options available with Tolle, consider him in the minors to begin the year with a slight chance at a reliever role out of camp. I’d hate the latter as it would prevent him from stretching out as a starter and working on a wider arsenal. I’m hoping for a spot in the minors where I’d be following closely via our PL Pro MiLB app to see if he’s getting a feel for secondaries. Tolle could be a fantastic snag off your wire when the time comes later this season.
Quick Take: With a low chance of a rotation spot + a shallow arsenal, Tolle’s time as a fantasy SP is on the horizon, not in our backyard.
114. Carson Whisenhunt (SFG, LHP)
Whisenhunt tried to be a SWATCH last year and the fella didn’t have enough juice on his changeup, while the 91/92 mph fastball was blasted. Well now he’s throwing live BP in February, sitting 96+ mph. Uhhhh. Yeah. Look, take that with a grain of salt n all, but even just sitting 94 mph is a big upgrade for Whisenhunt and this isn’t a guy I’m saying you should go from a 12th round pick to an 8th round pick. I’m just telling you to pay attention in the spring, see if it holds, and see if the Giants take interest to make him a starter straight out of camp. If he’s back to the minors, sweet! Then we can monitor the velocity and twiddle our thumbs, anxious for the moment to snag him when he gets the call.
115. Brandon Sproat (MIL, RHP)
There’s more in the total package from Sproat than what Tong provides, though he’s still missing the piece often unattainable by RHB sinker/sweeper arms – an effective approach to LHB. I really love his sinker to RHB at 95/96 mph with not just 17/18″ of horizontal run, but true intent to get inside that induced a sub 20% ICR and 67% strikes against RHB during his brief stint in 2025. The sweeper does its job to RHB as well, with a 25%+ SwStr rate, even if he struggled to place it where he wanted to in those four starts of 20+ IP. But what to do about LHB? The standard option is a changeup, but Sproat’s is awfully unimpressive. He wisely moves away from the sinker to focus on four-seamers, and it’s possible its flat attack angle at 96+ mph is enough to make up for its horrendous vert, though that depends on its location up in the zone, which I’m not sure Sproat is capable of quite yet.
A big question is the efficacy of his curveball. It has tight break at 80 mph that he spun into the zone 60% of the time to LHB…across 30 thrown. That’s too low of a sample to buy into, but this could be a four-seamer/curve/change mix in the end that does enough. Just please fix that changeup.
It really will come down to the LHB approach and I’m not sure we’ll get one we like with Sproat. Comparing him to his former teammates,¿there’s a better chance of success here than Tong, while Christian Scott’s four-seamer removes the LHB/RHB issue as it can take down both when working well. If the opportunity is there as the #5, I’d be curious in a 15-teamer to see if there’s an improved attack to LHB. Maybe even 12-teamers as a spec-add.
Quick Take: I initially considered Sproat as a sinker/sweeper arm who will likely struggle against LHB, though his 96+ velocity with a flat attack angle does open the possibility for four-seamers to perform well enough with his curve to mitigate the damage. If he slots into a secure rotation spot, the makings of a solid six-inning arm are here. Consider him a super sleeper who can be a stellar arm if things go right.
Tier 20 – Late Upside 2
116. Luis Gil (NYY, RHP)
Effectively wild. That’s the whole story with Gil, and it’s both the appeal and the frustration wrapped into one maddening package.
A 12% walk rate is untenable, and yet he’s posted a 3.50 ERA across 200+ innings. How? A 37% ICR and the fact that being unpredictable cuts both ways. Hitters can’t time him because the sequencing is genuinely chaotic. They don’t know if they should swing or take, and that indecision generates enough weak contact and chase to keep the run prevention afloat while the WHIP bleeds.
The 2025 season didn’t help. He lost a tick of velocity, SwStr rates declined, and the slider and changeup command wasn’t there. There’s a charitable read that a healthy offseason resets things. Sure. I don’t think it’s the most likely outcome. Late-round flyer territory.
Quick Take: Elite stuff, terrible command, and an ERA that somehow defies the 12% walk rate. No concrete evidence a command breakthrough is coming. A late-round dart throw, nothing more.
117. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN, RHP)
SWR, you rascal. He deserves respect for his openness to experiment, from moments pushing his extension to seven feet (then back down to 6.7 feet or so), having nights of 94/95 mph velocity vs. 92/93 mph on others, and then suddenly whipping out a legit splitter to LHB for the final two months of the season, catalyzing 20 strikeouts in two of his final three games, against the Yankees and Phillies, no less. His slider has solid sweep to it with his higher-than-average arm angle, and the 17+ vert is still effective when elevated to RHB, making for a decent approach on one side of the plate, with the hope of that splitter to silence LHB. It’s that simple, really.
Among the three/four(?) Twins starters vying for two rotation spots, Woods Richardson seems like the best bet after his strong finish, and I’m awfully curious if we see that fastball/slider/splitter approach continue, hopefully at 94+ mph on the heater. I believe we’ve all brushed him aside and there is a chance here he could do something. A fun flier, for sure.
Quick Take: Woods Richardson’s final two months of the season featured a new splitter focus to LHB that paid dividends by the season’s end. That approach could propel strikeouts again in 2026 if he can nail the BSB with his four-seamer and slider to RHB, hopefully with a heater at 94+ mph. With just three locked arms in Minnesota, SWR has a chance for a full season’s workload if he can establish himself as a decent arm in camp, creating surprising upside of volume and 23%+ strikeouts.
118. Sean Manaea (NYM, LHP)
What are we going to get from Manaea? He’s lost a tick of velocity in each of the last two seasons and after missing the start of 2025, he was unable to replicate the magic of his lower arm angled 2024 second half. The changeup was shelved for four-seamers and sweepers, which simply were not getting the job done enough, especially when facing batters a third time. It created short outings (not a single game of six full frames!), eventually acting a piggy-back with The Adobe by the end of the season, and it doesn’t seem worth it out of the gate with his attachment to a horrific floor.
Keep an eye on the southpaw slinger, though. I’m absolutely fine picking him up if he’s able to showcase the horizontal movement of 2024 again (lost three inches of horizontal!) while locating his fastballs up and secondaries down. My expectations are low, and I don’t suggest drafting him with an expectation for a rebound, even if he didn’t have a healthy off-season last year.
Quick Take: Manaea gave us a beautiful second half of 2024, but the magic wasn’t there when he finally appeared in 2025 after a long injury stint. The hope is for his velocity and movement to return on the fastballs, while the feel for his changeup to return as a legit out pitch to RHB. It remains to be seen and a repetition of his 2025 skill set will not cut it.
119. Cade Cavalli (WAS, RHP)
Cavalli throws hard (he sits 97+ mph), features a disgusting two-plane curveball at 86 mph that he can actually throw for strikes to both LHB and RHB, and a changeup with great fade to miss bats. The problem? Well, a few things. First, it’s an Empty Velocity fastball, which is all kinds of disappointing given Cavalli’s above-average ability to locate the four-seamer upstairs to LHB and the sinker armside to RHB. We did see a few whiffs to LHB last year off the four-seamer due to the location, but it also created loud contact when connected, and the sinker wasn’t nearly as effective as its precision would suggest. Second, it’s the Nationals and boy do I not trust them. The team offense/defense combo isn’t inspiring + we have not seen a shining example of pitcher development for a long time. And finally, I worry that the changeup feel isn’t there and starting him would break the Huascar Rule. There is a 92 mph cutter that lacks depth but has proper cut action, and that could be the solution for LHB, allowing him to only use his four-seamers upstairs as a surprise pitch, while the changeup’s command could improve in his first full season on the club, though they remain to be seen. For now, I’ll pass on this low-end HIPSTER.
Quick Take: Cavalli has the fun velocity and a disgusting curveball, but the lack of fastball dominance and questionable arsenal depth in a poor team context has me electing to find gold elsewhere.
120. Johan Oviedo (BOS, RHP)
The Red Sox aggressively traded for Oviedo this off-season and despite the past results that so many Boston fans want to shout and ignore (“I DON’T CARE ABOUT ANALYTICS!1!!!”), Oviedo is as straightforward of a “one tweak and he’s awesome” pitcher. That tweak? Locating his four-seamer at the top of the zone for strikes. The pitch has all the qualities you want: 95/96 mph velocity, 99th percentile extension, 99th percentile HAVAA, and surprise above average iVB relative to his super flat arm angle. It truly can be one of the better four-seamers around if he’s able to boast a strike rate above 65% of the pitch. That doesn’t seem so hard, right? Well…Oh no. The pitch had a 1st percentile strike rate last season under 55%. Oh jeez. It’s a product of his cross-body mechanics, and he’s struggled with control throughout his entire career. This is a BIG if.
Oviedo has more than just the four-seamer, though. His slider and curve have been the backbone of his approach during his career, each acting as the reliable strike pitches he so desperately wants his four-seamer to be, and have returned solid whiff rates, if not elite at times. There’s a world he retains their feel and gains the four-seamer command, in which Oviedo will be the talk of Beantown. For now, it remains to be seen and I have my doubts it’ll happen overnight.
Quick Take: Oviedo is a dart throw in Boston, hoping he can harness his rebellious four-seamer to command it at the top of the zone reliably for strikes, instead of its horrific 53.7% strike rate of 2025. The pitch’s ceiling is absurd, though, and paired with his strong breakers, would propel Oviedo into Top 50 SP discussion were he to figure it out. It’s a major IF, sadly.
121. José Soriano (LAA, RHP)
Soriano is simple on paper. A 97+ mph sinker with true sink that induces weak contact and all the groundballs to both LHB and RHB + a curveball that is a CSW darling. Sadly, there are many nights when he loses the feel for one or the other and there is nay a backup plan, leading to all the walks and headaches for trusting managers.
There are three things that could catalyze a true breakout season for José. First, getting a feel for his slider to RHB, which had a 21% SwStr rate last season across just 11% usage, and with a little extra sweep than a standard gyro slider at 89 mph, Soriano’s slide piece will obliterate RHB if he can throw it for strikes more than 60% of the time and not hang it so dang much when it is over the plate.
To that last point is #2. Throw strikes. Not with the sinker – that thing is driving this whole bus station-to-station – but with his curveball to LHB. At a sub 55% strike rate last year (and a 51% strike rate on his splitter, but that’s a two-strike pitch so I’ll let it slide), the curve’s lack of dependability put Soriano in tougher situations to LHB and is the largest cause of his terrible 11% walk rate. And it’s not too far-fetched to believe Soriano can improve the pitch. After all, it had a 62% strike rate to lefties in 2024.
Here’s the easiest path toward a WHIP better than 1.40 and overall success for Soriano: The Angels’ defense. As the #1 groundballer in baseball (nearly 70%!), Soriano needs a proper infield defense behind him. The Angels ranked worst in baseball in Infield OAA last season and can you imagine his confidence if he were on the Royals? Or Astros? I can’t say this is going to get much better with both Neto and Moncada still on the left side of the infield (Moncada was -13 OAA) and it means the volatility is likely here to stay.
It’s hard for me to go after Soriano with the team behind him. That said, if he’s flexing more sliders to RHB and nails down his curve (and splitty?) to LHB, then the walk rate should plummet at the very least, and it may be worthwhile. I’m not willing to bank on his command improving, though, and I’d try something else.
Quick Take: The 97 mph sinker is a rarity in this day and age and if Soriano had a strong defense behind him, it may be the solution to everything. Sadly, he’s been dealt the worst infield defense, forcing him to figure out how to earn more strikes with curves and sliders, while hoping to find a way to iron out his volatile control. It’s too much randomness for me.
122. Joey Wentz (ATL, LHP)
Wentz has elements that can be pretty cool. He upped his extension from an average 6.5 foot mark to an excellent 7.0 clip in 2025, while shifting from a cutter to a slider and consistently landing the pitch low to both LHB and RHB, going BSB with the high heater. The curve helped + a changeup appeared in his final three games as a sign of things to come.
However, the results were…okay. He had some great sneaky starts intertwined with disastrous games and the value wasn’t quite there outside of specific streams. The Atlanta rotation looks crowded to kick off the season, though with Schwellenbach missing time, it’s possible he sneaks into the rotation out of camp, though the addition of Pérez makes it unclear when we’ll see Wentz in the rotation. To be safe, I’ll save an eyebrow raise for the moment he’s handed the pearl in the first. He teased development at the end of the year to become a proper SWATCH and with his above-average command, fantastic extension, and reliable slider, there is a path toward a 12-teamer add.
Quick Take: We saw Wentz have success in bursts as he added extension, a slider, and changeup in 2025, but there’s still work to be done. He’ll likely get another chance in the rotation at some point in 2026 and when the time comes, keep a watchful eye for a possible mid-season pickup.
Tier 21 – Potenital 2026 Stud Prospect
123. Connor Prielipp (MIN, LHP, AAA) – Watch Video
Yeah, he’s a legit SWATCH. What we have here is a 94/95 mph four-seamer with good control, a filthy slider at 86/87 mph that can work against both LHB and RHB, a solid changeup down-and-away to RHB, and a sinker that lacks movement, but is controlled inside effectively. With the lack of reliable depth for the Twins, I’m treating Prielipp as the SP #8 for the Twins, assuming Festa is starting the season on IL, and he’s worth the add when the inevitable call comes his way. We saw other southpaws excel last season with a worse version of this arsenal.
124. Thomas White (MIA, LHP, AAA) – Watch Video
He fanned roughly 150 batters in 90 minor league innings last year, propelling him to #1 prospect status inside the Marlins’ system. However, like you’ll see with all of these Miami prospects, White’s control was rough, with 51 walks in that time. He even struck out 10 and walked six in his Triple-A debut, serving 95 mph four-seamers with solid two-plane movement up-and-away to RHB, some deadly kick-changeups, a gyro slider, and big sweeper with proper depth like a curve at 83 mph. He’s incredibly hard to hit with his effectively-wild approach, which makes us all hope he can turn the corner, tighten the range of pitch location, and turn into a workhorse for the Marlins. A large impact in 2026 seems too chaotic for me, even after we see a start of strikeout dominance in an early outing. He has the makings of a HIPSTER until those walks get ironed out.
125. Gage Jump (ATH, LHP, AA, Age 22) – Watch Video
Oh dang, I get the hype. Just watch that video – Jump was blowing four-seamers past LHB upstairs at 97 in the sixth inning. That’s the stamina of a proper LHP workhorse and a legit sign of stud in the making. The secondaries aren’t quite as exciting with a breaker involved, though the flat attack four-seamer is a thing of beauty and at his young age, I’m inclined to believe the breaker and changeup will continue to improve. He’s 100% worth the add when he arrives.
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garrett CrochetT1 | BOS | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | PIT | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 3 | Tarik Skubal | DET | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 4 | Bryan WooT2 | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Ratio Focused | - |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 6 | Max Fried | NYY | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 7 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 9 | Hunter Greene | CIN | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 10 | Hunter Brown | HOU | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 11 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 12 | Logan WebbT3 | SF | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 13 | Joe Ryan | MIN | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 14 | Freddy Peralta | NYM | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | +2 |
| 15 | Jacob deGromT4 | TEX | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +3 |
| 16 | Cole Ragans | KC | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -2 |
| 17 | George Kirby | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts Injury Risk | -2 |
| 18 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +1 |
| 19 | Chris Sale | ATL | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +1 |
| 20 | Kyle BradishT5 | BAL | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -3 |
| 21 | Eury Pérez | MIA | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 22 | Nick Pivetta | SD | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 23 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 24 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | Ace Potential Ratio Focused | -1 |
| 25 | Cam Schlittler | NYY | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | - |
| 26 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 27 | Framber Valdez | DET | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 28 | Michael KingT6 | SD | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 29 | Dylan Cease | TOR | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 30 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +12 |
| 31 | Kevin GausmanT7 | TOR | Holly Quality Starts | +5 |
| 32 | Trevor Rogers | BAL | Holly Quality Starts | +16 |
| 33 | Tatsuya Imai | HOU | Holly Quality Starts | +1 |
| 34 | Nolan McLean | NYM | Holly Wins Bonus | +1 |
| 35 | Bubba Chandler | PIT | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 36 | Trey Yesavage | TOR | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 37 | Cade Horton | CHC | Holly Wins Bonus | +10 |
| 38 | Robbie RayT8 | SF | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | +6 |
| 39 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | Ace Potential Quality Starts Injury Risk | +4 |
| 40 | Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -8 |
| 41 | Chase Burns | CIN | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -10 |
| 42 | Shane McClanahanT9 | TB | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -5 |
| 43 | Kris Bubic | KC | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +21 |
| 44 | Blake Snell | LAD | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -11 |
| 45 | Bryce MillerT10 | SEA | Holly Ratio Focused | +7 |
| 46 | Edward Cabrera | CHC | Holly Wins Bonus | -8 |
| 47 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | Holly Quality Starts | -8 |
| 48 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | Ace Potential Ratio Focused | -3 |
| 49 | Aaron Nola | PHI | Holly Quality Starts | +11 |
| 50 | MacKenzie GoreT11 | TEX | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | - |
| 51 | Emmet Sheehan | LAD | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | - |
| 52 | Ryan Weathers | NYY | Frizzle Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +2 |
| 53 | Nick LodoloT12 | CIN | Holly Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 54 | Sonny Gray | BOS | Holly Wins Bonus | -5 |
| 55 | Ranger Suarez | BOS | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 56 | Noah Cameron | KC | Holly Ratio Focused | - |
| 57 | Gavin Williams | CLE | Holly Strikeout Upside | - |
| 58 | Shane Baz | BAL | Holly Strikeout Upside Team Context Effect | -5 |
| 59 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | Holly Ratio Focused | -1 |
| 60 | Joe Musgrove | SD | Holly Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +2 |
| 61 | Zac Gallen | ARI | Holly Quality Starts | +9 |
| 62 | Brandon WoodruffT13 | MIL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -34 |
| 63 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -2 |
| 64 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | Ace Potential Quality Starts Injury Risk | -1 |
| 65 | Carlos Rodón | NYY | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 66 | Jared Jones | PIT | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +UR |
| 67 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -1 |
| 68 | Shane Bieber | TOR | Ace Potential Quality Starts Injury Risk | -9 |
| 69 | Matthew BoydT14 | CHC | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 70 | Luis Castillo | SEA | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 71 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 72 | Zach Eflin | BAL | Toby Quality Starts | - |
| 73 | Andrew PainterT15 | PHI | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 74 | Spencer Strider | ATL | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 75 | Logan Henderson | MIL | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 76 | Robby Snelling | MIA | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 77 | Braxton Ashcraft | PIT | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 78 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | Toby Hipster Wins Bonus | -3 |
| 79 | Jack Flaherty | DET | Hipster Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -5 |
| 80 | Kodai SengaT16 | NYM | Toby Quality Starts Injury Risk | +UR |
| 81 | Joey Cantillo | CLE | Toby Quality Starts | -10 |
| 82 | Bailey Ober | MIN | Toby Quality Starts | -4 |
| 83 | Cody Ponce | TOR | Toby Quality Starts | +UR |
| 84 | Brayan Bello | BOS | Toby Quality Starts | -5 |
| 85 | Seth Lugo | KC | Toby Quality Starts | +UR |
| 86 | Landen Roupp | SF | Toby Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 87 | Tyler Mahle | SF | Toby Ratio Focused | -2 |
| 88 | Max Scherzer | TOR | Toby Wins Bonus | -2 |
| 89 | Quinn Priester | MIL | Toby Ratio Focused | -7 |
| 90 | Ryan Weiss | HOU | Toby Team Context Effect | +UR |
| 91 | Shane Smith | CWS | Toby Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 92 | Jack LeiterT17 | TEX | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 93 | Cristian Javier | HOU | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 94 | Zebby Matthews | MIN | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 95 | Mike Burrows | HOU | Frizzle Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 96 | Grant Holmes | ATL | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 97 | Grayson Rodriguez | LAA | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +UR |
| 98 | Spencer Arrighetti | HOU | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 99 | Jacob Lopez | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -7 | |
| 100 | Will Warren | NYY | Toby Wins Bonus | -5 |
Labels Legend
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
