Expected SP Schedules Weeks 14-15: Wheelin’ and Dealin’

Welcome back to our Expected SP Schedules series!

Throughout the season, the Expected SP Schedules article will provide insight regarding each starting pitcher’s upcoming matchups. Who has a two-start week? Who is facing a favorable lineup? Who is struggling but might be due for a turnaround? Among other content at Pitcher List, this article is meant to help guide fantasy baseball managers through the handling of their rotations. Today’s title is a shoutout to Zack Wheeler, who just keeps on shoving at 35 years old.

Readers should weigh pitchers’ next two predicted starts more heavily than the third and fourth, as those are more likely to change. As mentioned last week, for the next few posts, we’ll only be “predicting” matchups for each team leading into the All-Star break, since teams usually opt to shuffle their rotations after the hiatus. The games listed in each chart start with the games of Monday, June 30 despite the Tuesday publication date, so that the chart coincides with the start of the week.

Remember the handy glossary for this article:

• (OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
• (DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
• ??? represents an unclear rotational spot, and the notes will explain the options.

And finally, let’s look at our PLV-based offensive rankings, which incorporate our Process+ metric to project future offensive performance. These rankings, which are in alphabetical order by tier and were last updated on June 23, continue to reflect the offensive skills that teams have showed lately rather than over the course of the entire season. The biggest risers this week are the Cardinals and White Sox, each of whom have jumped multiple spots since the last update — St. Louis’ home lineup moved up to the solid tier, while their road squad skipped out of the “Poor” tier all the way to “Average,” and the White Sox did the same. Both teams are coming off winning weeks, as the Cards swept Cleveland over the weekend, and the Sox’s win over the Giants on Sunday marked their third series victory in the month of June. Props are in order!

Moving in the other direction lately are the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays, each of whom fell out of the top tier; I still believe in the Jays’ dangerous and disciplined lineup (they still boast an MLB-leading 17.7% strikeout rate), but it’s no surprise to see Arizona fall after being swept by the Marlins this past weekend. The Mariners (away) and Rangers both fell multiple ranks, with Texas dropping all the way from “Solid” to “Poor.”

 

AL East

• The Orioles are expecting some bad news regarding Zach Eflin, who was removed from his start on Saturday with back pain, and is likely to hit the IL soon. Cade Povich is currently rehabbing in Triple-A, and he should be back next week at the latest; with two off-days upcoming before the All-Star break, they should be able to get by with this group. If Povich isn’t ready yet this weekend, they can bump up Trevor Rogers to pitch Saturday on regular rest, start Charlie Morton on Sunday, and call up Povich for the Mets series. Texas isn’t a bad matchup, but I would think twice before starting any of these hurlers in Atlanta (or against the Mets, for that matter).

 

• The Red Sox’s path leading up to the break is about as good as you could ask for. Garrett Crochet has a delightful two-step this week between the Reds and Nationals, and Brayan Bello could be worthy of a stream in all three of those matchups (CIN, COL, TBR) if he gets the chance. Richard Fitts is the least-trustworthy of this bunch, as he pitched just four innings against the Angels last week, and he’s liable to be replaced by Tanner Houck soon. I wouldn’t start Walker Buehler against the Nats or Rays, either, but I’m all-in on Lucas Giolito’s resurgence (25 IP, 2 ER, 24 K, 7 BB total in his last four starts) — and this is the perfect runway for him to a strong second half. What could go wrong?

• Marcus Stroman posted a near-Quality Start in his return from the IL on Sunday, completing five frames against the Athletics with a 1.00 WHIP. He offers a low floor and little upside, so there’s no reason to add him for any of the matchups listed here. The rest of this rotation has been consistently good, and they’re worth riding through this challenging stretch. It will be interesting to see who ends up taking the mound vs. the Cubs in that final series before the break, possibly depending on who needs/wants to be rested up for the big game in Atlanta.

 

• The Rays have three games at home this week before embarking on a 10-day road trip that spans the rest of the first half. Normally, I would be glad to see these starters get more chances away from Steinbrenner Field, but Detroit and Boston are no pitchers’ paradises in the summertime. Still, you’re starting Drew Rasmussen for both ends up his two-step this week, and Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz have earned your trust through this stretch as well. Meanwhile, Taj Bradley continues to frustrate us, as he followed up a great start in Kansas City last week with a clunker in Baltimore, and I’d steer clear of his start in Minnesota this weekend—that’s a Top Tier offense, after all!

• It’s a long four-game set this week, but once the Yankees leave town, Toronto has a perfectly manageable path to the break. It remains to be seen if Bowden Francis will return to the rotation before then, but if he does, it would likely come at the expense of Eric Lauer. If José Berríos is available on your waiver wire anywhere, he could be worth picking up after his start on Wednesday for the White Sox/A’s two-step next week.

 

• The White Sox’s reward for their recent success is a gauntlet of 13 games in 13 days, passing through Chavez Ravine and Coors Field before a challenging home stand ends the first half for them. Shane Smith is the only one of this group I would trust to start in Colorado, and you know the drill against the Dodgers: Stop, Drop, and Roll Bench.

• The Guardians are another team that just used up their last off-day before the break, and it’s a tough road until that White Sox series. Gavin Williams has a risky two-start week against the Cubs and Tigers, but he could reward you if you’re lucky. Tanner Bibee has been good more often than not lately, and he gets another test on Wednesday; if he comes through in that one, I would start him with full confidence afterwards in Houston and Chicago.

• Edward Cabrera’s two-start week against the Twins and Brewers is actually better than you think. Through his ups and downs this season, Cabrera has been relatively consistent in a few areas; he’s recorded 5+ strikeouts in every start dating back to mid-May, and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a game since April. I’m starting him where I’ve got him, and I’d do the same next week against the Reds or the Orioles.