Whether it’s early in the season, the middle of July, or late in the year, it’s always good to know where you stand in your Roto league.
Of course, perusing your league’s standings accomplishes that fairly quickly. However, numbers can often be misleading. Is your team producing at the level it should be as a league leader compared to the vast majority of other Roto leagues?
Are there under performing players on your team, or available via waivers each week that could help you significantly in specific, or multiple, categories moving forward? This column aims to, and will, answer all those questions on a weekly basis, regardless of league size.
Essentially, it’s an almanac for Roto leagues and NFBC or TGFBI leagues, showing you not only the watermarks your team should be hitting category-wise to be truly elite but also the specific players that will help you get there. What’s more, it’ll also cover the top performers in each category, as well as some under-the-radar options for each metric as well.
Notes
- A couple of quick notes before we begin, for metrics like ERA, WHIP, batting average, and on-base percentage, only qualified or close to qualified pitchers and hitters (respectively) were considered, especially at this time of year with smaller sample sizes running rampant.
- Additionally, all rostered rate numbers are via FantasyPros. Furthermore, in part due to NFBC leagues, all stats (as well as the rostered data) are via the previous week’s Sunday.
- All the data in terms of Roto league production is from last year’s numbers.
Where You Should Be Producing In Each Category
Below is data for both 15-team and 12-team Roto leagues from last season and the average statistical totals that each placed team finished with. This is for the entirety of a season. Basically, if you want to do well in a 15-team (and later 12-team) format, these are the season-long watermarks to shoot for.
There’s also SGP data for both 15-team and 12-team formats.
Before we get any further, a massive thank you to Pitcher List Director of Data Analytics and Research Kyle Bland for getting a hold of the data.
And now, without further ado, the 15-team data, which comes from 2023 TGFBI leagues:
15-Team Leagues
(Quick reminder, the far left-hand column is where the team finished in the standings.)
And here’s the 15-team, SGP data:
12-Team Leagues
And now for the 12-team, SGP data:
Category Power Rankings
Batting Average (AVG)
Leaders
Of Note: Logan O’Hoppe. Also Bobby Witt Jr.
There’s all sorts of unsustainability here, up and down the board. However, a few names certainly stick out. One is Logan O’Hoppe who’s off to a scorching start at the plate with xwOBA and wOBA metrics sitting above .400 and a hard-hit rate that’s so far eclipsed the 60% mark.
Just like with many of the batting averages you see before you, those numbers probably won’t carry on at their respective clips. However, this abundance of quality contact in O’Hoppe’s statistical ledger is nothing new.
The catcher’s breakout season last year was cut short due to injury, but he collected a 15.6% barrel rate, a .346 xwOBA, and a 46.7% hard-hit rate in 199 plate appearances, connecting on 14 (!) home runs in the process.
Even in a weakened Angeles lineup minus Shohei Ohtani, O’Hoppe has top-five potential at his position if his batting average production can come anywhere close to the power upside he’s displayed.
Moving on to Bobby Witt Jr., it’s nice to see that the torrid second half he turned in last year has continued to carry over into the new season. Witt hit .301 with 16 home runs, just a 13.5% strikeout rate, a .262 ISO, a .378 wOBA, a .906 OPS, and a 139 wRC+ in the second half last year.
This year? His xwOBA is sitting at .528. I believe that that might be good? It’s a tiny sample size, but it’s also worth noting that 18 of the 29 balls the infielder has put in play so far have left the bat at north of 101 MPH.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Jackson Merrill
Any thought of Jackson Merrill struggling to maintain his fine Cactus League form has all but evaporated. After logging a .925 OPS, two home runs, and two stolen bases in Spring Training, the rookie is currently sitting in the 70th percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel rate, and whiff rate.
Locked into a regular role in a quality San Diego lineup and with fantasy eligibility at both shortstop and in the outfield, Merrill has a chance to be one of the season’s early impact additions off the waiver wire. Furthermore, he’s only hit eighth or ninth so far for San Diego, something that will surely change (and lead to more RBI chances) if he continues to hit like this.
We’re not quite to the point where it’s sort of a last call to put in a waiver claim before his rostered rate inevitably jumps up, but it feels like we’re close to that point. Make a FAAB bid now and get ahead of the game.
On-Base Percentage (OBP)
Leaders
Of Note: Carlos Correa
Carlos Correa hasn’t been able to consistently replicate his best form from Houston at the plate in Minnesota on a regular basis, but this is certainly an encouraging start after a down year in 2023. If the season ended today, Correa’s chase rate would be a career-high, and he’s certainly offering at and making contact with the right pitches, as evidenced by a BABIP well north of .400. One of the league’s best walk rates early on certainly doesn’t hurt either.
One thing to watch though, the veteran infielder has recorded just one barrel so far. He’s registered at least 37 (and a barrel rate above 9.3%) in each of his last three seasons, but if the low barrel totals continue, it certainly won’t help his fantasy ceiling, which has already taken a bit of a hit with Royce Lewis on the injured list.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Mark Canha and Brendan Donovan
Canha is in a way the opposite of Correa production-wise in that he’s doing everything with an elevated barrel rate. A must-add in deeper leagues the outfielder is very much worth a look in most all league sizes where on-base percentage is part of the scoring, especially with a regular place in the middle of Detroit’s lineup (that should improve moving forward) assured every day.
A second-base sleeper heading into the season, Donovan is essentially a lock for both a quality batting average and on-base percentage with his high contact, low strikeout approach that still features plenty of quality contact. Much of that is still the same, with the St. Louis stalwart’s chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate all within reasonable distance of his career norms.
On all that alone, plus eligibility at multiple infield positions and in the outfield, Donovan brings a lot to the table as a quality fantasy bench option in any league. But like Canha, he’s doing all this with more regular barrels. His barrel rate hasn’t finished above 5.8% in a single season in the Majors, but if it can finish in the 8% to 9% range, it’d raise the 27-year-old’s fantasy profile even more so.
Home Runs (HR)
Leaders
Of Note: The Royals. Well, the Royals and Riley Greene.
O’Hoppe will (rightfully) draw the headlines as well where catchers enjoying breakouts are concerned, but there should probably be some additional attention thrown Melendez’s way (in the form of fantasy managers adding him off waivers) in recognition of such a strong start. Like his teammate Witt Jr, there’s plenty of red on the slugger’s Statcast. However, the most notable bit of batted ball data from Melendez so far is the six barrels he’s accumulated.
Entering play Monday, only four batters had more: Shohei Ohtani, Christian Walker, Yordan Alvarez, and Witt Jr.
Speaking of barrels, another of Melendez’s teammates along the infield is off to an excellent start in the power department.
That would be Maikel Garcia, who came into the season as a potential source of stolen bases where fantasy baseball was concerned after hitting .272 with a .323 on-base percentage, four home runs a .086 ISO, and 23 stolen bases in 515 plate appearances last year.
Garcia has never hit more than 11 home runs in a season in the Majors or minors.
So far this year, he’s nearly collected half (six) the barrels he did in all of 2023 (14) while also nearly matching his home run tally before the second full week of the season is through. For an infielder who should still get plenty of plate appearances and stolen base chances moving forward, he looks like an early league winner.
Owner of just a .188 batting average so far, Riley Greene should be just fine moving forward and his power production is certainly evidence of that. With four barrels so far, the outfielder has a real shot at tripling his home run tally of 11 from last season.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Taylor Ward.
Is the Taylor Ward fantasy resurgence upon us? Potentially. Five barrels in your first 38 plate appearances and 27 batted balls will do that for you. But Ward’s potential fantasy resurgence is down to more than just that.
He’s also hit fourth in each game he’s played this season. Shohei Ohtani might be a member of the Dodgers, but hitting cleanup in Anaheim still means regular plate appearances after a resurgent Mike Trout. If that trend continues, Ward could see his rostered rate rise by at least 15 to 20%
Runs Scored
Leaders
Of Note: The Dodgers. Plus Christopher Morel.
The sheer volume of Los Angeles Dodgers sluggers on this list shouldn’t surprise anyone, not with the quality that’s in Dave Roberts‘ lineup on a nightly basis.
And while Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman have all enjoyed productive starts to the year where runs scored are concerned, Teoscar Hernández’s numbers shouldn’t be discounted either.
Essentially a lock for a double-digit barrel rate, a high xwOBAcon, as well as some elevated strikeout numbers, it’s probably not a surprise that Hernandez is thriving from a counting stat standpoint in this fantasy-friendly ecosystem.
And while he’s not a member of the Dodgers, Christopher Morel’s placement on this list gives me an excuse to mention arguably the most noteworthy early-season trend to track in the following months: Morel’s plate discipline.
Like Hernandez, Morel routinely crushes baseballs when he gets a pitch to hit. His xwOBAcon topped .460 in each of his first two seasons, and he logged a .343 xwOBA, a 15.9% barrel rate, and an even 50% hard-hit rate in 429 plate appearances last season.
But, like Hernandez, he also strikes out a lot.
To pair with the high xwOBAcons in his first two years, Morel also logged strikeout rates north of 30% in his first two campaigns.
This year, the results have been much different. The infielder/outfielder is sporting just an 11.9% strikeout rate so far, which is all well and good, but his chase and whiff rates have dropped considerably too.
More’s chase rate has never finished below 28% in a season and his whiff rate has been at a minimum of 37% during the same span. So far this season, those numbers are at 21.7% and 20.8% respectively. It’s once again a minuscule sample size, but if Morel keeps making more contact like this (he’s also still sporting a .359 xwOBA) he could be an elite fantasy option. Watch this space.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Regression candidates.
Brenton Doyle and, to a slightly lesser extent Oswaldo Cabrera (due to a bit of power production), stand out as potential regression candidates so operate with caution here.
Though he does get to play half his games at Coors Field, Doyle is sporting an xwOBA well south of .250 and was striking out 34.2% of the time as of the start of play on Monday. He’s been productive before, with 10 home runs and 22 stolen bases last season, but he only hit .203 with a .250 on-base percentage during that stretch (431 plate appearances).
The 26-year-old was also sporting a .381 BABIP through Sunday. He’s not a bad option to utilize in deeper leagues until the BABIP cools off, particularly in home starts, but for now it might be best to look elsewhere.
In terms of Cabrera, he’s hitting .333 with a .389 on-base percentage and a pair of home runs in 36 plate appearances to start the year for the Yankees. However, he only has one barrel with the two home runs and is registering a 32% hard-hit rate plus a .286 xwOBA. THe versatility he provides fantasy managers certainly doesn’t hurt, but his ceiling might be that of a fantasy bench option than a full-time starter.
RBI
Leaders
Of Note: Spencer Steer.
Let’s talk about Spencer Steer’s breakout season at the plate so far.
After somewhat of a fluky season in terms of counting stat production last year that included 23 home runs on a 6.7% barrel rate, a .333 xwOBA, and a 37.1% hard-hit rate that finished in the 26th percentile league-wide last season, the 26-year-old is doing nothing but make quality contact in the early going of 2024.
He’s already a 10th of his way to last season’s barrel total (30) and is sporting a hard-hit rate (57.7% through Sunday) approaching 60% to go along with an unsustainable, but still quality .555 wOBA.
Eligible in fantasy leagues across the diamond, or, more specifically, everywhere but shortstop, starting pitcher, relief pitcher, and catcher, Steer will continue to bring unique fantasy upside and value to the table with this type of quality contact.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Michael A. Taylor.
Taylor’s walk and strikeout rates are right in line with his career numbers, give or take a percentage point or two. Even his 16.7% barrel rate isn’t far off recent production in that category, as the outfielder turned in a 13.5% barrel rate just last year.
But it’s not just the barrels, the outfielder is simply making better contact across the board. His xwOBA has never finished above .330 in a full season and has finished below .300 five times, so there is plenty of regression risk here, a fact that isn’t helped by a .419 wOBA or a .571 (!) BABIP. Still, the outfielder makes for a quality streaming option over the next few weeks.
The only thing to watch here is how Pittsburgh deploys its outfield. It’s a reasonably crowded outfield mix with Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, and Edward Olivares also on hand and Connor Joe and Andrew McCutchen capable of playing in the outfield grass.
Stolen Bases
Leaders
Of Note: Jose Siri.
Jose Siri has always been dependable in terms of quality counting stat production, just not similar batting average or on-base percentage outlays.
The outfielder collected seven home runs and 14 stolen bases in 325 plate appearances in 2022 but hit just .213 with a .268 on-base percentage. Last year, he hit .222 with a .267 on-base percentage in 364 plate appearances while collecting 25 home runs and 12 stolen bases.
Some of those lower batting averages have been in part due to elevated strikeout rates. 33.2% in 2022 with Houston and Tampa Bay, 35.7% last year with the Rays.
With those have also, unfortunately, come lower walk rates. Siri hasn’t clocked a walk rate north of 6.5% in the Majors.
This year though, things are changing in regard to the latter. Of course, it’s a minuscule sample size, but Siri is posting a 15.0% walk rate so far and his chase rate is down to 26.8%. The strikeouts (35% strikeout rate) are still there, but if the outfielder can continue to draw walks, it’ll only help his stolen base total continue to grow as the summer months progress.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Brice Turang
It remains to be seen if Turang can keep up this kind of production at the plate, what with a .474 BABIP in 29 plate appearances. However, the stolen base total shouldn’t be overlooked. In fact, the infielder could be well on his way to significantly outperforming his 2023 production where stolen bases are concerned.
With Owen Miller at Triple-A and Willy Adames a speculative trade candidate in the event that the Brewers fall out of the playoff race, Turang should have no trouble reaching a full season’s worth of plate appearances for the Milwaukee-based club. His lack of overpowering xwOBA and barrel rate numbers limit him to deeper leagues from a fantasy ceiling standpoint, but if you’re looking for purely a stolen base option to fill out your roster, Turang is worth a look.
Pitchers
Strikeouts
Leaders
Of Note: Michael King
Michael King’s start to life with the San Diego Padres hasn’t been ideal. In 14.1 innings of work, he’s pitched to a 3.14 ERA, a 5.25 FIP, 15 strikeouts, 11 walks, 10 hits, and a pair of home runs.
The jump in walks certainly hasn’t been ideal, but a deeper dive into the strikeouts doesn’t paint the most promising story either. King’s 31.9% CSW% rate for the season isn’t particularly bad, though when paired with just an 8.2% swinging strike rate, it’s hardly optimal. In other words, King is getting way more called strikes early on.
It’s still only mid-April, and this is the same pitcher that finished with 11.12 strikeouts per nine frames, en route to a 2.58 ERA and a 3.01 FIP in his last 45.1 innings as a starter last year, but the lack of whiffs is a slight cause for concern and something to monitor.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Jordan Wicks.
As with most things this early, the small sample size reminder does apply, but it’s been a promising development to see Wicks take a step forward in the bat-missing department so far.
The 24-year-old was solid last season for the Cubs, pitching to a 4.41 ERA and a 4.70 FIP as a rookie in seven starts spanning 34.2 innings. Much of the reason for the high run-prevention numbers was due to one poor start (Wicks’ last of the year on September 30) in which he was tagged for six earned runs, six hits, two homers, and a walk in 1.2 innings on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers. Otherwise, the right-hander allowed three or fewer runs in each of his other six starts, including only four total earned runs allowed in his first 22.2 Major League innings.
He found most of his success via limiting quality contact (.311 xwOBA, 33% hard-hit rate, .341 xwOBAcon), not handing out much in the way of walks (7.5% walk rate), and inducing a bunch of grounders (50% ground ball rate).
If he’s now adding missed bats to the equation on a regular basis, it’d raise his fantasy ceiling considerably.
ERA
Leaders
Of Note: Steven Matz
Fun fact, Steven Matz has finished with a FIP somewhere between 3.75 and 3.79 in each of the last few seasons. He’s been quietly effective for the Cardinals, despite switching between the rotation and bullpen at times, and this season is no different with a 1.74 ERA and a 3.23 FIP through two starts and 10.1 innings.
Matz’s ERA might not stay this low, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him still be among the top 25 or so pitchers in ERA when all is said and done this season.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Zack Littell.
Zack Littell’s early-season production may look like it came from nowhere.
It shouldn’t.
The long-time reliever moved into Tampa Bay’s rotation down the stretch last season and found plenty of success.
Hiding behind a 4.10 ERA and 4.02 FIP in 90 innings for the season is the fact that Littell logged a 3.41 ERA and a 3.89 FIP in 70.2 innings as a starter, striking out 7.07 batters per nine innings while allowing just o.63 walks per nine frames. All told, even with some unideal reliever splits that negatively impacted his season-long metrics, Littell still finished with a sparkling 3.2% walk rate last year.
This year, though only through two starts, that number is at 4.8%, which pairs nicely with a 26.2% strikeout rate. The veteran’s split-finger offering has been the star of the show so far in the bat-missing regard, currently sporting a 50.0% whiff rate and a 16.1% usage rate so far. Last year, those numbers finished at 28.1% and 19.2% respectively.
Wins
Leaders
Of Note: Ronel Blanco.
Ronel Blanco rightfully drew plenty of early-season headlines for his no-hitter to start the year. He then proceeded to allow just one hit in six shutout innings in his second outing.
There is just a bit of long-term concern here, or long-term in regards to the course of the season, due to lower strikeout rates (21.2%) and higher walk rates (11.5%) so far, but Blanco’s ability to limit hard contact has been his key to success so far.
Eventual returns of injured starters Justin Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, and Luis Garcia could impact Blanco’s standing in the Houston rotation, but for now, he should stick in both Astros and fantasy managers’ respective rotations.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Relievers.
This will surely change as the season progresses, but it’s worth noting how many relievers have logged multiple wins. Weaver, in particular, paces all of baseball with three at the time of writing. He’s currently the only starting pitcher eligible in fantasy leagues but is being utilized as a reliever by the New York Yankees.
Elsewhere, Miller is very worth keeping an eye on. The pitcher-win production might not be sustainable, but he’s positioned himself arguably as Detroit’s best late-inning option outside of new closer Jason Foley, especially with Alex Lange and Andrew Chafin struggling at times this season.
In addition to his pair of wins, Miller also has a hold in four appearances and has yet to allow a hit in six innings. He’s also pitched two innings in an outing twice already. If you’re looking for a reliever to post quality ratios and some additional strikeouts while chipping in with some ancillary saves, holds and a few wins here and there, Shelby Miller is the reliever for you.
Quality Starts
Leaders
Of Note: Merrill Kelly.
We really shouldn’t be surprised by what Merrill Kelly is doing right now. The veteran has been Mr. Consistent for the Arizona Diamondbacks in the last four seasons. His FIP has finished in the 3.60 to 4.15 range in each of the four years, his ERA has three times finished below the 3.40 mark in that span, and the 35-year-old has exactly 18 quality starts in each of the last two years.
Here’s a list of players, or pitchers more specifically, rather.
Freddy Peralta, Zach Eflin, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Koday Senga, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Joe Ryan, Sandy Alcantara and Dylan Cease. What did they all have in common you might wonder? They all had fewer quality starts than Merrill Kelly’s tally of 18 last year.
Want more names related to quality start metrics? Spencer Strider, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, and Kyle Bradish all finished with 18 quality starts as well.
And yet, despite all that, Kelly is sporting an ADP of 145.73 per NFBC data.
Continue to start the Diamondbacks hurler with confidence.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Tanner Houck.
Houck has shown up in a variety of different places on leaderboards in this column, so now feels like an excellent time to dive into just how good he’s been so far this season. The right-hander generated 10 strikeouts and 16 swinging strikes on 89 pitches while limiting the Oakland A’s to three hits in six shutout innings during his first start of the campaign.
What followed next was another shutout outing of six innings, this time with seven strikeouts and seven whiffs against four hits and a pair of walks allowed against the Los Angeles Angels. The hurler’s respective CSW% rates in both games? 42% and 29%.
Most importantly, though, the right-hander’s slider is once again an elite bat-missing offering. After finishing with a whiff rate below 40% in each of the last two seasons, the number is up to 45.5% this year. It’s a tiny sample size to be sure, but it’s reasonably in line with where the whiff rate for Houck’s slider finished in his breakout season in 2021: 42.4%. That he’s rostered in so few leagues (relatively speaking) is more than a little surprising. All told that number should realistically be approaching 70% or higher based on his performance so far.
Saves
Leaders
Of Note: How Emmanuel Clase has been utilized so far.
That sub-header is not to suggest that Clase wouldn’t remain the closer in Cleveland. After all, from 2021 through 2023 he led the league with 110 saves, two more than the next closest reliever.
But all that came with Terry Francona as manager, and it was fair to wonder whether Clase would dominate ninth-inning usage as much moving forward. From 2021 to 2023, the next closest reliever in terms of saves in the Guardians’ bullpen was James Karinchak with 14, none of which came last year and 11 of which came in 2021 when Clase was still establishing himself.
Fast forward to this year and Clase has a save in four of his five appearances. No other Cleveland reliever has a save. In fact, only two other Guardians relievers have logged a high-leverage appearance in the ninth inning this season.
If this kind of usage continues, Clase should have no problem remaining (once again) a top-five fantasy closer.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Abner Uribe.
If we’re approaching the point where Jackson Merrill’s rostered rate is going to skyrocket soon, we’re probably even closer with Uribe, who looks locked in as the closer in Milwaukee at the moment with Devin Williams on the injured list. Joel Payamps‘ only save has come when Uribe wasn’t available,
And while the 23-year-old’s overall numbers are still a bit impacted by one bad game at home against the Mariners, this is still the pitcher who struck out 30.7% of batters while limiting those same batters to just a .290 xwOBA and a 6.0% barrel rate in 30.2 innings last season.
With more innings, his ERA and WHIP should even out, while his strikeouts should only rise.
WHIP
Leaders
Of Note: Jordan Hicks
A popular later-round target for fantasy managers mining for breakout starters, Hicks is on his way to being just that so far this season. It’s only been two starts (as of Sunday) but there’s plenty to like. The 27-year-old is still inducing a ton of grounders after switching to the rotation from the bullpen, thanks in large part to his sinker-fronted arsenal, sporting a 56.3% ground ball rate so far.
The 27-year-old has allowed just one earned run in 12 innings of work while striking out 11 batters. He’s also utilized his split-finger offering to aplomb (and with much more regularity). After logging just a 3.5% usage rate with the pitch last year, it’s up to 15.1% in the early part of the season, and batters have hit just .125 with a .105 xBA, a .168 xwOBA and a 55.6% whiff rate against the pitch.
Perhaps most crucially, he’s only walked one batter, good for a 2.2% walk rate. Now, obviously, that number is going to rise some as the season goes on, but for a pitcher who struggled with walks at times as a reliever, it’s incredibly encouraging to see Hicks limit free passes early on in longer outings.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Jared Jones
Jared Jones‘ early-season performance has been both excellent and confusion-inducing.
Excellent in that he has CSW% rates of 35% and 40% in his first two starts. Excellent that he has 43 whiffs on 169 total pitches. Excellent that both his chase rate and strikeout rate rank in the 90th percentile or better.
And oh yeah, he has a 4.2% walk rate so far.
So all that is, simply, fantastic.
Now to the confusion-inducing bit.
Remember Kyle Bradish, Cole Ragans, Bryce Miller, Bailey Ober, Mitch Keller Eury Perez, and (to an extent) Tarik Skubal last year? Remember all those young pitchers who had breakout seasons? Jones is this year’s version of one of those starters, except his ceiling will be more in line with Perez and Skubal if he can keep this up from a bat-missing standpoint.
Now that we’ve reached the end of the column, I have no qualms about saying this: stop what you’re doing and go make FAAB-related moves accordingly to acquire Jared Jones.
He could help you win your league in a number of months.