Whether it’s early in the season, the middle of July, or late in the year, it’s always good to know where you stand in your Roto league.
Of course, perusing your league’s standings accomplishes that fairly quickly. However, numbers can often be misleading. Is your team producing at the level it should be as a league leader compared to the vast majority of other Roto leagues?
Are there underperforming players on your team, or available via waivers each week that could help you significantly in specific, or multiple, categories moving forward? This column aims to, and will, answer all those questions on a weekly basis, regardless of league size.
Essentially, it’s an almanac for Roto leagues and NFBC or TGFBI leagues, showing you not only the watermarks your team should be hitting category-wise to be truly elite but also the specific players that will help you get there. What’s more, it’ll also cover the top performers in each category, as well as some under-the-radar options for each metric as well.
Notes
A couple of quick notes before we begin. For metrics like ERA, WHIP, batting average, and on-base percentage, only qualified or close to qualified pitchers and hitters (respectively) were considered, especially at this time of year with smaller sample sizes running rampant.
Additionally, all rostered rate numbers are via FantasyPros as of Monday. Furthermore, in part due to NFBC leagues, all stats (as well as the rostered data) are via the previous week’s Sunday.
All the data in terms of Roto league production is from last year’s numbers.
Where You Should Be Producing In Each Category
Below is data for both 15-team and 12-team Roto leagues from last season and the average statistical totals that each placed team finished with. This is for the entirety of a season. Basically, if you want to do well in these two formats, these are the season-long watermarks to shoot for.
There’s also SGP data for both 15-team and 12-team formats.
Before we get any further, a massive thank you to Pitcher List Director of Data Analytics and Research Kyle Bland for getting a hold of the data.
And now, without further ado, the 15-team data, which comes from 2023 TGFBI leagues:
15-Team Leagues
(Quick reminder, the far left-hand column is where the team finished in the standings.)
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And here’s the 15-team, SGP data:
12-Team Leagues
And now for the 12-team, SGP data:
Category Power Rankings
Batting Average (AVG)
Leaders
Of Note: Yainer Diaz.
Diaz enjoyed a breakout season in 2023, hitting .282 with a .308 on-base percentage, a 128 wRC+, 23 home runs, and a .256 ISO in 2023.
And while the catcher and first baseman’s power numbers aren’t quite where they were last year, he’s enjoyed another strong season in his second full Major League campaign.
Diaz entered play Monday batting .301 with a .327 on-base percentage, a 121 wRC+, 16 home runs, a stolen base, and a .161 ISO in his first 493 plate appearances this season. Though while his ISO has dropped off, Diaz has 33 barrels so far, just two off the 35 he logged last season.
Elsewhere, and perhaps most crucially for fantasy managers, he’s hit either third or fourth for the Astros in all of his starts since June 16, something that will only continue to boost his fantasy ceiling down the stretch.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Miguel Rojas.
Rojas is enjoying his best season at the plate in seasons. He’s still making a ton of contact, what with just a 10.2% strikeout rate that would tie a career-best if the season ended today. Elsewhere, he has a very real chance to finish with an xwOBA north of .300 for the first time in a full season since 2019.
Overall, the veteran isn’t going to provide above-average production in many fantasy categories outside of batting average, but he makes for a quality addition in that regard given the potential for extra RBI and run-scoring chances in a stacked Dodgers lineup.
On-Base Percentage (OBP)
Leaders
Of Note: Shohei Ohtani.
Shohei Ohtani enjoyed a strong start to his Dodgers tenure this season, hitting .314 with a .387 on-base percentage while batting second in each of his appearances. In part due to Mookie Betts landing on the injured list, Ohtani stepped into the leadoff role for the Dodgers. Betts has returned from the injured list, but Ohtani has remained the team’s leadoff hitter. We’re approaching near-even sample sizes for the former Angels slugger hitting first and second this season. And while his batting average has dipped a bit, his power production has jumped considerably going from elite to all-universe level good.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Matt Wallner.
Since returning to the Twins lineup on July 7, Wallner has accounted for eight home runs. That doesn’t sound like an overly significant number, but it is when you consider that the outfielder has collected those eight home runs in just 122 plate appearances, hitting .307 with a .426 on-base percentage, a 206 wRC+ and sporting a .366 ISO and a 27.9% barrel rate in the process.
He’s a must-add for fantasy managers looking for instant home run and RBI production.
Home Runs (HR)
Leaders
Of Note: Corey Seager.
For as much as the Rangers have struggled as of late, Seager has continued to thrive at the plate. He’s hitting .286 with a .357 on-base percentage and 14 home runs in 196 plate appearances since the start of July, logging a .297 ISO and a 157 wRC+ in the process. He’s hitting just .259 in 93 August plate appearances, but that production also comes with a 159 wRC+, a .388 ISO, and 10 home runs.
If Seager is on your fantasy team, there’s probably a decent chance you drafted him in the early rounds this year with the hope of him producing like a potential league winner.
Well, guess what? That league-winning production is here (well really, it’s been here all year, but Seager is heating up at the right time for fantasy managers). And right in time for the fantasy playoffs.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Christopher Morel.
Morel’s first month in Tampa Bay hasn’t been the most productive stretch. He’s hitting just .185 with a .283 on-base percentage, three home runs, a stolen base, a .136 ISO, and a 76 wRC+ in his first 92 plate appearances with the American League East franchise.
It should be noted that Morel also is sporting a .245 BABIP during that span. And while a 7.7% barrel rate and a 26.9% hard-hit rate are hardly ideal, the versatile Rays slugger has the upside to be a fantasy league winner if some positive regression kicks in due to his versatility and power and speed potential.
For what it’s worth, the low BABIP isn’t anything new for Morel, even dating back to his time with the Cubs this season. Among qualified hitters, only Anthony Santander had a lower BABIP for the season than Morel’s .224 number as of the beginning of play this week.
Runs Scored (R)
Leaders
Of Note: Kyle Schwarber
Long one of the game’s best power hitters, Schwarber is enjoying one of his more productive seasons where batting average is concerned in years thanks in part to a BABIP that is a bit more favorable this season.
Schwarber hit just .197 with a .209 BABIP, a 17.5% walk rate, and a 29.9% strikeout rate last year.
This year, he’s hitting .248 with a .304 BABIP, a 16.2% walk rate, and a 28.0% strikeout rate and looks poised to finish the year in the 80th percentile or better in each of the following statistical categories for the fourth year running: xOBP, barrel rate, average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard-hit rate, walk rate, and chase rate.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Alex Verdugo.
Verdugo is hitting just .229 with a .291 on-base percentage and an 83 wRC+ in his first 533 plate appearances this year. And while a 15.0% strikeout rate and a .248 BABIP probably point to some type of positive regression, much of the outfielder’s fantasy value so far has come from either hitting in the middle of the Yankees’ lineup after Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, or as the team’s leadoff hitter, what with 65 runs scored and 54 RBI.
Lately, however, Verdugo has slid further down the order, batting sixth or lower in six of his last seven appearances entering play this week. If that trend continues, it’ll be hard to trust him as a starting fantasy option as there might not be as many RBI or run-scoring opportunities (comparatively speaking) further down the Yankees lineup.
RBI
Leaders
Of Note: Aaron Judge.
Since 2015, only 16 times in a season has a player eclipsed the 122 RBI mark Aaron Judge has set so far. The highest number during that span, for reference, was Matt Olson with 139 RBI last year.
It should be noted we still have the entire month of September on the calendar.
Judge has a very real chance to post the best RBI season we’ve seen in the last decade. In fact, with the way he’s been hitting, it seems all but a certainty at this point that he’ll pass that 139 number set by Olson.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: J.D. Martinez.
13.
That’s the number of qualified batters in the league with a higher barrel rate from April 26 (when J.D. Martinez made his Mets debut) through the end of last week.
Just 13.
(For reference, Martinez is sporting a 15.0% barrel rate during that time period on 247 batted ball events. His hard rate, also for reference, is sitting at 46.2%).
Among the many players with a lower barrel rate than Martinez during that span? Teammates Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, Rafael Devers, Bobby Witt Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Elly De La Cruz and Gunnar Henderson.
Now also with outfield eligibility in fantasy leagues and no longer only eligible at just the utility spot, Martinez needs to be on significantly more fantasy baseball rosters.
Stolen Bases (SB)
Leaders
Of Note: Elly De La Cruz.
Just 20 times this century has a player stolen 60 bases in a season. De La Cruz has reached that mark and we’re not even into the regular season’s final month.
De La Cruz also has 22 home runs and a .225 ISO so far. Of the 19 other times a 60 stolen-base season, just one other player has logged at least 20 home runs or a .200 ISO or better. That player? Ronald Acuña Jr. last season.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Dairon Blanco.
Blanco is a potential league winner if the Royals start playing him regularly. That’s a rather significant if, but Kansas City has struggled for outfield production at times this season.
Blanco homered three times in a recent series in Cincinnati and has either a homer or a stolen base (or both) in six of his last 13 appearances entering this week.
Pitchers
Strikeouts (K)
Leaders
Of Note: Freddy Peralta.
Peralta closed last week with just two strikeouts in five innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. The start continued a trend of lower strikeout tallies for the hurler, who had just 24 combined strikeouts in his last five outings prior to the St. Louis start.
And while Peralta does have a start at home against the Rockies coming up, assuming the Brewers’ rotation continues as is without any interruptions, he’ll also have a rematch with those same Cardinals and then two starts against the Diamondbacks.
Entering play this week, only four teams had a lower strikeout rate than the Diamondbacks, with the Cardinals 21.8% strikeout rate checking in lower than 17 other clubs.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Taj Bradley.
Bradley qualifying for this specific leaderboard might have something to do with the fact that he’s given up four earned runs or more in four of his last five starts. In total, the right-hander has allowed 23 earned runs in his last 26 innings.
It’s an unideal stretch and one that is set to be followed up by upcoming starts against the Padres, Twins, and Phillies. Still, Bradley is a borderline top-20 fantasy starting pitcher when he’s in form. Even with the struggles, he’s well worth a look in deeper leagues. The upside is too much to ignore.
ERA
Leaders
Of Note: Logan Gilbert.
Entering play this week, Gilbert’s past five starts had been anywhere from excellent (seven shutout innings against the Mets, allowing just three hits and a walk while striking out six) to extremely unideal.
Unideal in that the Dodgers got to Gilbert for seven hits, eight runs, six earned runs, and two walks in 4.2 innings on August 21. On July 27 Boston scored tallied seven hits, seven earned runs, and a walk in 2.2 innings against the starter, who was making a road start.
Of course, during that stretch, Gilbert also allowed just four hits and an earned run in six innings against the Phillies.
Still, it’s something to keep in mind moving forward if there’s a particularly unideal-looking start on the schedule. Though, that likely won’t be anytime soon with Gilbert’s next three projected starts set to come in Oakland against the A’s, on the road in St. Louis, and at home to the Texas Rangers.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Tobias Myers.
Myers has been extremely consistent for the Brewers and fantasy managers this season. Entering play this week, he’d allowed more than three earned runs in a start in just four of his 19 starts this season, two of which came in late April and early May.
He’s certainly someone worth starting in fantasy lineups in the right matchups, but the right matchups might not be forthcoming on the schedule. Assuming the Brewers’ rotation continues as is without any interruptions for the rest of the season, Myers’ next four starts will come at Cincinnati, at home to the Rockies, away to Arizona, and at home to Philadelphia.
The Colorado start is definitely one to keep him in lineups for, but with roster spots at a premium this time of year, fantasy managers might be better off looking elsewhere for streaming options for a pitcher they might keep on the bench for the better part of the next three weeks.
Wins (W)
Leaders
Of Note: Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale.
If you’re looking for the debate many will be having next season about who the top fantasy pitcher in baseball will be ahead of drafts in the spring, it seems likely that Skubal and Sale will be among the most prominent names in the discussion, if not the only two names outright, particularly with both pitchers respective teams likely to have healthier lineups for the entirety of next season.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: JP Sears.
Sears has quietly won six of his last nine starts for the A’s. And while he’s pitched to a 4.35 ERA and a 4.55 FIP in 26 starts spanning 144.2 innings this season, the ERA and FIP numbers are down to 3.29 and 3.98 respectively in that nine-start stretch.
Sears is very much worth continuing to start for fantasy managers as well. Assuming the A’s rotation continues as is without any interruptions, his next two starts will come on August 30 against the struggling Texas Rangers and September 4 against a similarly struggling Mariners squad.
Quality Starts (QS)
Leaders
Of Note: José Berríos.
Berrios continues to log quality starts. And while he’s given up more than two earned runs just once in his last eight outings, he might be someone to consider not starting for the next few weeks. Or at least for his next two starts. Assuming the Blue Jays’ rotation continues as is without any interruptions, Berrios will face the Twins in Minnesota and face Atlanta on the road.
Due to injuries, Atlanta isn’t the same, top-10 scoring offense it was a year ago, but both clubs are still in the top 12 in runs scored in the second half. Pair that with Berrios’s 4.89 FIP on the season and fantasy managers might be better off looking elsewhere, at least where a starting spot is concerned.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Ryne Nelson.
Fun fact, since June 14 Nelson is sporting a 3.20 ERA and a 2.90 FIP in 78.2 innings of work, logging a pitcher win in six of his 12 starts and allowing just 1.49 walks and 0.69 home runs per nine frames. And all that includes a June 26 outing against the Twins in which he gave up 10 hits and six earned runs in just 3.2 innings of work.
Want another fun fact or two? Entering play this week, just nine pitchers had a lower FIP than Nelson during that span. Only three (Tarik Skubal, Hunter Brown, and Framber Valdez) recorded more pitcher wins.
Saves (SV)
Leaders
Of Note: Craig Kimbrel.
Kimbrel hasn’t recorded a save since July 7. Since then, the Orioles have acquired Seranthony Domínguez and utilized the former Phillies hurler in the ninth inning. Dominguez entered the week with five saves in his last seven outings for the Orioles, but he also had a three-game stretch in which he gave up a home run in three consecutive outings.
This is not to say Kimbrel is necessarily going to get the closer’s role back at any point. Whether that happens remains to be seen. But if he was dropped in your fantasy league, and you have the bench space to spare, there are fewer high-upside (albeit high-risk) options to stash on the bench for the stretch run and the playoffs.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Chad Green.
With Jordan Romano on the injured list, Green has taken over as the closer in Toronto and has quietly established himself as a dependable ninth-inning option for fantasy managers. He’s sporting a 1.65 ERA in 43.2 total innings this year, with 39 strikeouts compared to 11 walks and six home runs allowed. And while his 4.00 FIP suggests some statistical regression coming, not to mention a .194 BABIP, Green has allowed just two earned runs in his last 17 outings and has accumulated seven saves already this month.
He’s a potential top-15 closer the rest of the way and should be on fantasy rosters in all leagues with 12 or more teams.
WHIP
Leaders
Of Note: Dylan Cease.
There are probably few pitchers with as fantasy-friendly of a schedule over the next few weeks as Dylan Cease. His next projected start will come on Sunday on the road against the Tampa Bay Rays followed by two starts against the Giants (one at home, one on the road) and then a home matchup with his old team the White Sox.
Entering play this week, the White Sox and Rays were last and third-to-last in runs scored in the league. And while the Giants were more middle of the pack in that regard, both matchups will come at decidedly pitcher-friendly ballparks in Petco Park and Oracle Park.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Bowden Francis.
A potential fantasy league winner even before his recent near no-hitter against the Los Angeles Angels, Francis has now struck out seven or more batters in each of his last four starts while giving up two earned runs or fewer in each outing.
His innings totals for those four starts? Five, seven, seven, and eight respectively.
Realistically, based on his recent form on the mound, Francis’ rostered rate should be probably be approaching the 60% or 70% mark. Go add him now before that happens. He might just win you a fantasy championship in a few weeks.