Let’s get some basics out of the way regarding how to interpret these rankings. None of this stuff should come as any major surprise, but it never hurts to provide background:
- Corey Seager gets yet another bump, and his production when healthy is extremely consistent and fantastic. Of course, the “when healthy” bit is critical, as he’s already missed nearly 30 games in 2023 and missed almost 70 games in 2021 (not to mention prolonged absences in 2018 and 2019).
- Luis Robert Jr.’s upside is a a player with power, speed, and contact ability, but his on-field volatility combined with his injury risk is a maddening thing to deal with.
- Minimal changes to this tier. Kyle Schwarber has been hitting for plenty of power lately, which is to be expected, and Trea Turner has shown signs of life, though those signs still don’t suggest he can go back to being a Tier 2 player.
- Over his last 24 games (105 plate appearances), Josh Jung has a strikeout rate of just 17.1%. This is the stat I’ve been watching for him all season, and to see it drop to this level without costing him any power is a dream come true. There’s still room for him to move up a tier or two as part of a good lineup as we head into the heat of the summer.
TIER 7
- I’m reserving further judgment on this smaller tier for at least another week for a variety of reasons. The guy I’m watching most closely is Yandy Díaz, who has dealt with a variety of injuries over the last few weeks and is slashing just .220/.281/.254 over his last 14 games.
TIER 8
- Bryan Reynolds is a good hitter, I’m certain of it. He’s actually hitting more barrels, more fly balls, and more hard-hit balls in 2023 than he did last year or the year before, but the home runs are lagging. They’ll come. That said, he drops a bit because of how streaky he has been with power and how streaky this offense is, which leads to prolonged periods where counting stats are too hard to come by.
- Xander Bogaerts has been improved in June after a miserable May, but the home run pop remains absent (a single home run since May began). With the depth available at shortstop, Xander is looking less and less appealing.
- Alex Bregman remains fairly valuable as a high-floor third baseman in OBP formats, but the low batting average (which is unlikely to improve much due to the extreme fly ball nature of his batted ball profile) and limited power upside (20-25 home runs) is frustrating in standard leagues. The 90-100 runs and 90-100 RBI should continue to be a plus everywhere, though, and that kind of run production is very hard to ignore.
TIER 9
- Brandon Nimmo is striking out quite a lot lately (over 29% of the time in his last 102 plate appearances), but it’s not hurting his overall production as he remains on track to match his 2022 totals apart from the runs scored. Nimmo is even more valuable in OBP leagues, but there’s plenty of boring goodness to enjoy in standard leagues, too.
- Dansby Swanson has not been able to recreate the magic he found in Atlanta in 2022 in any way (apart from an improved OBP thanks to taking more walks). He can accumulate enough stats to be relevant if he stays as he is for the rest of the season, but I’m still holding out just a little hope that he finds the 25+ home run power again. I don’t mind if you drop him in shallow leagues, as chasing the upside of, say, a dropped Gunnar Henderson could pan out well, but leagues with bare waiver wires are better off holding.
TIER 10
- Vinnie Pasquantino WAS here, but his season-ending surgery ends a disappointing sophomore campaign.
TIER 11
- Cody Bellinger has begun his rehab assignment, but it’s hard to say what version of Bellinger we will get when he returns. He’s inconsistent even when healthy. The upside remains, though.
- Gunnar Henderson has been one of the best hitters in baseball for the last week and a half or so, reaffirming the extreme talent we saw in him as a prospect. I haven’t moved him that much on this list only because I’ve kept him pretty darn high hoping that something like this would happen, so let’s see how it goes. He’s worth adding everywhere he was dropped.
TIER 12
- Elly De La Cruz gets a bump for his strong start and also because he’s going to pick up the coveted third base eligibility. The strikeouts are ugly, and ideally he will bring that rate down to 30% or better (it’s nearly 40% right now). They are unlikely to be the reason Elly gets sent down UNLESS he either stays near 40% for 75 or more plate appearances or if he stops being able to produce due to the whiffs. I think the most likely scenario is that he stays up, however, you have to at least recognize the risk that comes with his hit tool. The longer he stays up and the lower his strikeout rate gets, the higher on the list he can go. There’s top-50 upside for this season and top-10 upside in future seasons if that hit tool develops.
- Josh Naylor continues to swing a hot bat, but this ranking should indicate that I think Naylor is still a limited fantasy contributor over the course of a full season. My mind could be changed, though, if Naylor continues to get the ball off the ground – his ground ball rate is down eight points from his career rate.
TIER 13
From this point on, there is approximately a net +5 to all rankings
- I’m still a Spencer Torkelson believer. The flashes keep popping up, and lately we’ve seen a bit of power, too (including back-to-back games with a home run). I get it if you’re moving on in a shallow league, but I still believe in the upside.
- Michael Harris II finally moves up! It’s been against some suspect pitching, sure, but the hits keep dropping over the last seven games, including two home runs and a stolen base.
- Ezequiel Duran continues to get more run (albeit at the bottom of the lineup) for the Rangers, and while there isn’t much opportunity to move up in that lineup, he continues to impress me with the improved strikeout rate and his new ability to consistently get the ball in the air at the major league level.
- Nolan Jones had a fantastic run in the minors and a great debut during his homestand in Coors. The Rockies have now begun a long road trip, though, and that will be a real test of what kind of staying power Jones can have on fantasy rosters in 2023.
TIER 14
- I’ve left Luke Raley off the list for too long and you all appropriately called me out for it. It’s been good to see Raley move up from the seven spot in the lineup to somewhere in the middle. An improved strikeout rate of late (22.2% in his last 10 games) has likely played a part in that move, along with the .344/.417/.688 line Raley has put up over those 10 games. The upside for Raley is probably tied to that strikeout rate and his playing time, but I could see him as a 22-25 home run hitter who steals double-digit bases and good (not great) ratios if he played 140 games or more. That’s worse than his current pace, but it’s important to note that we should expect a drop in overall performance the more he’s put up against left-handed pitching. Finally, Raley is not a great fit for weekly leagues, as he’s sat against seven of the last eight southpaws who have started against the Rays
- Michael Conforto hasn’t hit for much power lately (two extra-base hits over his last 13 games), though he is making contact and providing batting average and OBP. Between the inconsistent production and the massive injury risk, it’s hard to be too optimistic about the long-term outlook.
TIER 15
- Ke’Bryan Hayes is a fantastic defender, which means he gets to play through every slump. This can crush his overall batting line, but hopefully that experience will result in Hayes bouncing back from these slumps more and more quickly as he gains experience.
- Jeff McNeil keeps providing us nothing of value, and guys who are supposed to be anchoring our ratios don’t have much margin for error when it comes to being roster-worthy in 12-team leagues.
- Willson Contreras and Willy Adames have track records of being good hitters (Contreras more so than Adames), but they’ve been bad for quite a while now, and I’m not holding them on most rosters. Their presence on the list is a nod to their track records and upside, but they feel more likely to fall off than move up as of right now.
- Harold Ramírez is a better hitter than his 136 rank, but sitting four times in the last 10 games is extremely frustrating, even if he’s producing when he’s in the lineup. The Rays have resisted giving Ramirez a full-time role up until now, and with the number of players they are cycling through the lineup, it’s hard to imagine too much of a change going forward.
- It’s good to hear that Anthony Volpe is going to stay in the lineup, and the talent remains sky high. In redraft, he’s probably droppable by now, but if there are any keeper elements to your leaguer, it’s a much more difficult decision.
- Jordan Walker is getting playing time, and that’s all we can ask for right now.
- Brent Rooker and Jack Suwinski have been hot of late, but I need to see more before I change my opinion of what these guys are at their core—streaky power hitters who will be on and off rosters all season.
- Isaac Paredes has played every game since the last time I did a list, because understanding the Rays is a fool’s errand. When he’s playing, he’s useful, but you never know when he’ll sit three times in a week.
- Ryan Noda is hitting well, but the home ballpark, team support, and strikeout rate all scare me. He’s a decent streamer and has staying power in OBP, but he’ll be a quick cut if the power fades again.
- Brett Baty is finally playing every day, but he’s not hitting. There’s a good hitter here, but it likely will take more time to see that come out.
And now, once again, it’s time for the Hitter List:
And here’s the Taxi Squad, presented in no particular order:
Taxi Squad
You have Elias Diaz on this list twice
Whoops! I’ll replace the second Diaz with Donovan Solano.
Would you consider adding Jose Abreu onto the back end of the list (tier 15)? His power and hard hit rate have returned the last two weeks, and it’s led to a small HR streak lately.
Maybe if he does this for another month. I am not super interested. Way more bad data than good over the last two seasons.
Is Zack Neto chopped liver?
Last Friday, his season-long batting line was .239/.328/.358. I’ll need more than a good weekend to really take an interest, especially with the very limited track record in the minors (though it was quite good) and what I see as limited projectable upside (THE BAT X projections have him as a -$1.50 player ROS given 313 PAs—putting him outside the top-25 at SS).
That BAT X projection doesn’t make a lot of sense since it is based primarily on Statcast data and Neto’s profile is pretty much top half of the league across the board. Unless BAT X heavily weighs past performance, or ABs at the major league level, I don’t see one projection as telling the story here. I watch the Angels almost daily and he has been one of the more improved guys week over week. It’s not one ‘good weekend’ LOL
FWIW, THE BAT X was the rosiest projection. That’s why I chose it. The rest had him even lower. I think there’s some upside in Neto (once his oblique is better, anyway) but projecting a player with exactly 44 minor league games who is now in the majors is extremely difficult.
Also, I say 1 weekend because half of his HR and just over 20% of his XBH this season came over the course of those 3 games last weekend. Without those 3 games, the stat line looks much less interesting. Doesn’t mean those 3 games are random or meaningless, but a significant portion of his production happened very quickly and very recently.
Albeit a SS platoon role, do you envision Sweet Jesus Sanchez making his mark and moving into the ranks? Cleanup bat v RHP in a burgeoning Miami lineup.
Hi Scott,
Hope all is well and thanks for staying on top of the list for us! Hacks and Jacks pod this week, or skipping?
Do you think there’s anything worth rostering in Jesús Sánchez?
Torkelson is flashing a bit, I’m getting interested with the playing time floor and power flashing.
Am on the only one who sees upside in Nick Pratto, leading off and with Vinnie P out? Pratto hit 36 homers in 2021 in the minors, any indications on why the power isn’t translating?
Josh Bell seems to be warming, the rolling charts still don’t look great (what samples do you usually look at to evaluate on rolling charts?)
One more…
Rocco Baldelli seems set on not playing Kirilloff against LHP, shouldn’t that hurt his rank if the team is seeing multiple lefties?
My roster has been bit by the injury bug. 12 team H2H OBP categories. I dropped Rooker and Ozuna (bummer) added Pratto and Sánchez. Would like to add Tork, but will have 3 1B only (Freeman, Abreu, Tork would be #3) for 3 UTL spots. It’s doable but OF would fit the build better – we start 4.
Of Pratto, Abreu, Sánchez, Torkelson, Kirilloff, O’Hearn do you like Tork best for an at bats floor and upside?
Tork and Kiriloff are my preferred options, even with Kiriloff getting sat too often.
I need to see more from Abreu after such a long power outage. He looked so cooked that a week or two won’t move me much.
Sanchez swings at and connects with too many bad pitches. It leads to a bloated GB% and makes his power less meaningful. I’d wanna see that change in his approach before I believe in a surge. So many 0-fer games due to strikeouts and groundouts.
Speaking of strikeouts, that’s Pratto’s problem. He’s been on the Taxi Squad many times, but you can’t really find success with a strikeout rate over 35% (which is what Pratto has so far in June). I’m stunned he’s still leading off.
+1 for a Jésus Sánchez evaluation
It’s interesting to see adolais holding steady in that top echelon of batters despite the slump. Is this just a normal cold streak for a power hitter?
We added Solano when Mr. McMahon sitting 61st ranked player in fantasy? What this man do to your family?
McMahon has been really good for the last 21 games, but in his first 46 games he slashed .217/.298/.379. I believe that’s more of the “real” McMahon than the one we’ve seen since May 25. This is an ROS ranking, and I believe anyone adding McMahon today will have missed out on like 75% of the above-average production McMahon might bring this season. There isn’t much juice left in the orange.
thought you meant add Solano to the top 150. still… halfway through the season and you top 40 hitter in fantasy then you doing something right
Thank you Scott! Great takes. Kirilloff is picking up some starts against LHP, which is good to see hopefully he’ll produce & become a fixture in the lineup. Thanks again!
Scott, I’m concerned about Hunter Renfroe’s steadily decreasing playing time. Do you think Moniak will move into a regular platoon situation with him?
Thanks,
Joe