Expected SP Schedules Weeks 6-7: Slinging in the Rain

Welcome back to our Expected SP Schedules series!

Throughout the season, the Expected SP Schedules article will provide insight regarding each starting pitcher’s upcoming matchups. Who has a two-start week? Who is facing a favorable lineup? Who is struggling but might be due for a turnaround? Among other content at Pitcher List, this article is meant to help guide fantasy baseball managers through the handling of their rotations.

April showers have given way to May showers as it turns out, and rain delays/postponements and double headers around the league continue to shake things up. The Guardians and Nationals will play two on Tuesday, and nearly half of the league has the day off Thursday, so hopefully we get some sunshine and uninterrupted pitching lines for Mother’s Day weekend. As always, readers should weigh pitchers’ next two predicted starts more heavily than the third and fourth, as those are more likely to change.

Remember the handy glossary for this article:

• (OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
• (DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
• ??? represents an unclear rotational spot, and the notes will explain the options.

And finally, let’s look at our PLV-based offensive rankings. There have been quite a few changes to these rankings since last week, including a massive jump by the Tigers from the last tier all the way to the first! Clearly, the metrics are lending credit to the AL Central leaders’ early-season success. Other notable risers include Boston, Houston, Pittsburgh and Oakland, while a few of the teams that dropped tiers were Atlanta, Baltimore, Cleveland and Kansas City. The sample size is still small, so expect to see further movement with each update for the next few months at least.

 

 

 

• Charlie Morton’s move to the bullpen may have been necessary, but it leaves a question mark in the Baltimore rotation, at least for this week. Zach Eflin’s first rehab start went well on Sunday, and there is optimism he could return as soon as this weekend in Anaheim. Whoever starts on Wednesday (it may end up being Morton anyway) is unlikely to move the needle fantasy-wise. Cade Povich is currently in line for a two-start week, but that could depend on what happens with Eflin.

• Walker Buehler’s move to the IL opened the door for a potentially extended run from Hunter Dobbins, though his first start on Saturday didn’t inspire a ton of confidence. The season debut of Lucas Giolito, however — 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 K — was much more so. He did enough to crack Nick’s “Probably Start” tier for Tuesday’s tilt against the Rangers, and with a second start due Sunday in Kansas City, this looks like a big week for those who held onto Giolito.

 

• Carlos Carrasco made an appearance out of the bullpen on Sunday, throwing three innings of relief in a loss to the Rays. However, this was likely due in part to Clark Schmidt’s start getting scratched unexpectedly the day before and bumped to Tuesday. Carrasco should start again for the Yankees next weekend, keeping things relatively consistent for everyone else — including co-aces Carlos Rodón and Max Fried, who have juicy matchups coming up in Sacramento and Seattle, respectively.

Rays’ Expected Starters

• Zack Littell and Taj Bradley helped buoy the Rays to an unlikely series win over the Yankees last weekend, but it doesn’t get any easier now, with the Phillies coming to town on Tuesday. Drew Rasmussen is line for a quality two-start week, though, if that’s a luxury you can afford.

 

• Eric Lauer joined the rotation last week against the Red Sox, providing a predictable dose of meh. He is the presumable starter on Tuesday, but it could also be the newly-signed José Ureña, or some combination of the two (Lauer did follow an opener on Wednesday). A makeshift solution may be required for foreseeable future, since Max Scherzer isn’t eligible to return from the IL until May 29th now.

 

• Bryse Wilson was successfully stretched out to 89 pitches in his first start over the weekend, though “success” is probably the wrong word, since it included nine hits and four earned runs allowed. He’ll look to improve on those totals against the Marlins on Friday. There’s your weekly White Sox update: somehow, they endure.

 

• Monday’s rain-out shouldn’t change things too drastically, assuming the weather cooperates the rest of the week. Luis L. Ortiz and Ben Lively are both taking the bump Tuesday, meaning either one of them could be eligible for a second turn on Sunday; but since the Guards are traveling home on Thursday, the more likely two-start candidate is neither of them. It’s a big week for Cleveland, as they hope to build some momentum ahead of the challenging road trip coming up.

• Jackson Jobe’s turn at Coors Field will be one to monitor on Tuesday, as the matchup itself isn’t too scary, but you never know what effect the elevation might have on a young pitcher toeing the mound in Colorado for the first time. If he is able to pass that test, Sunday’s home tilt against Texas certainly seems worth it.

• Cole Ragans put all our worries to rest on Monday, striking out 11 White Sox in five innings in his first start since that groin injury two weeks ago. He and Seth Lugo are both in for juicy two-start weeks if everything holds serve. It’s a tough break for Michael Lorenzen, though, missing the White Sox series entirely — if there’s anyone out there somehow on the fence about dropping him, feel free to take this as your sign.

• Following a particularly rough start to the year, Chris Paddack has managed to go five full innings in each of his last five starts. He’ll get another chance to extend that streak against the Giants next weekend. If he slips up, however, the clamoring for David Festa or Zebby Matthews to claim his spot will only grow. Festa impressed in his most recent minor-league start since being demoted, but Matthews’ schedule lines up neatly with Paddack’s, so we could see him get the first shot if it comes to that.

• Lance McCullers Jr. got the benefit of facing the Chicago White Sox in his 2025 debut on Sunday, and he failed to take advantage, lasting just 3.2 innings in a rain-shortened contest. Thankfully he’ll get another primo opportunity to prove his stuff on Saturday, as the Reds — who nearly got no-hit by AJ Smith-Shawver yesterday — come to town. Ryan Gusto is in the bullpen for time being, but he could still see bulk action working behind McCullers (as he did Sunday) or as a potential sixth starter if the Astros opt to go that route.

• Things don’t get much easier any time soon for the last-place Angels. The current AL East homestand is followed by a brutal California road trip, then a brief home series against the Marlins before the Yankees come to town. On the bright side, José Soriano and Kyle Hendricks put forth quality starts over the weekend, with the latter pitching into the 8th inning against the Tigers. If he’s able to replicate that against the Orioles and Padres, well… that would be a pleasant surprise.

• Gunnar Hoglund turned some heads in his major league debut on Friday, striking out seven Marlins in six innings with a shiny 38% CSW. He’s a popular fantasy pickup ahead of his second start against the Mariners on Wednesday, and if he delivers, he may even earn enough trust for a hold through that scary with the Dodgers next week. It remains to be seen what will happen when J.T. Ginn returns from injury, which doesn’t appear to be far off, since he’s already beginning a throwing program.

• Seattle’s starting staff has been roughed up lately in more ways than one, with poor performances compounding brutal injury luck. Bryan Woo has been the best starter on the team this season, which is a little hard to fathom given the pedigree of the other names on this roster. This week’s series against the second-place A’s is suddenly a significant one, especially considering the gauntlet that follows it. Choose your spots wisely with this group.

• Nathan Eovaldi has been his ol’ reliable self for Texas this season, and he should be able to keep it rolling with a solid two-start week here. Outside of three games in New York, the upcoming schedule for the Rangers is pretty manageable; hopefully Jacob deGrom can capitalize on that fact to really build some momentum (and please, please, stay healthy).

• AJ Smith-Shawver was excellent in Monday’s no-hit bid, but the four walks he allowed over those eight innings are mildly concerning. He has certainly earned a stream (or hold) against the Pirates this weekend, as has Bryce Elder, who came through the @COL/LAD gauntlet with solid ratios intact. Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach haven’t looked quite like themselves lately, but this cushy upcoming schedule should hopefully provide an antidote for those late-April doldrums.

• Ryan Weathers is up to 64 pitches on his minor-league rehab assignment, and if his next start goes well enough, he figures to rejoin the Marlins rotation sometime next week. In the meantime, Valente Bellozo is scheduled to make one more start on Wednesday against the Dodgers. You don’t want any part of that, or any of this, really. We’ll check back in with Miami in June….

• Griffin Canning continues to be a pleasant surprise for the first-place Mets, as he delivered a fourth consecutive outing Monday of 5+ innings with 5+ Ks. His reward is a brutal stretch of upcoming matchups against three of the best offenses in baseball. The rest of the staff doesn’t have it much better this month, but at least Clay Holmes is lined up to dodge the Dodgers and Yankees.

• Ranger Suárez made his season debut on Sunday, and yeah, it could have gone better (7 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 6 K in 3.2 innings). But the Diamondbacks are a tough squad, and he’ll have a chance to rebound in Cleveland this weekend. The rest of the month isn’t too challenging from a scheduling perspective, which could result in a number of enticing two-start weeks for this deep and capable staff — starting with a Zack Wheeler special, up against the Rays and Guardians.

• Brad Lord is sticking around long enough to help out with Tuesday’s double-header before likely ceding his long-term role to Michael Soroka, who is slated to return from the IL on Wednesday. Soroka impressed in his final rehab start, striking out 11 batters in five innings at Triple-A. Time will tell if the former top prospect is able to translate that success at the Major League level this season. If he can, the two starts coming up against his former club would be a great time to do it.

• Colin Rea has been on a nice run since joining the Cubs rotation, allowing just two earned runs in 13.2 total innings across three starts, and 17 strikeouts to boot. He’s in line for a very interesting two-dip trip next week against the Marlins and White Sox, if everything holds serve. You could do worse than any of these options given that schedule.

• The Reds are embarking on a challenging road trip to Atlanta and Houston this week, but when you pitch in a park like Cincinnati’s, that’s not always the worst thing. Nick Martinez has the best upcoming run of this bunch, as he has a chance to avoid Atlanta altogether and get the White Sox at home before taking on Pittsburgh and Kansas City on the road again. Andrew Abbot should get two starts this week, but I’d avoid that one unless you’re desperate.

• Brandon Woodruff is close, but not here yet. He’s slated to make his fifth rehab start in Triple-A on Tuesday, and if that goes well, a return sometime next week isn’t out of the question. The assumption is that he’ll take over Chad Patrick’s spot, which would no doubt be a disappointing blow for people with two first names everywhere. Jose Quintana has a decent path forward schedule-wise, if you’re looking for a streaming rental, but bear in mind that could change with Woodruff’s return as well.

• The days “Between Two Skenes” are cold and bitter for Pirates enthusiasts, at least until Bubba Chandler gets here. The schedule here is unyielding for the Buccos, but Mitch Keller could be worth a look against the Reds and Brewers, if he survives New York. Maybe.

• Steven Matz is back in the bullpen for the time being, but much like a Jurassic Park sequel, he could be back at any point. You can never be truly prepared. It’s a shame that Matthew Liberatore and Sonny Gray are both missing the series in Washington this weekend, because the rest of this rotation has about as much upside as one of those Jurassic Park sequels. All Park, no bite, if you catch my drift.

• Ryne Nelson made a spot start Monday for Corbin Burnes, who was experiencing shoulder inflammation. Thankfully, it’s nothing serious, and the Diamondbacks say he’s on track to make his next start against the Dodgers. Meanwhile, the gauntlet continues for the rest of this staff, and I imagine that Rockies series can’t come soon enough.

• Speaking of the Rockies… actually, let’s not. The colors on that grid should pretty much tell you the full story here.

• The revolving door continues to spin for Dodgers starters. Tyler Glasnow is back on the shelf, joining his All-Star teammates Blake Snell and Clayton Kershaw, among others. But Tony Gonsolin is back, and he “hooked” a whopping 9 Marlins in his season debut last week. Gonsolin is angling for even greater catch in a rematch today in Miami. Preceding him was Ben Casparius, who struck out five in four innings in Monday’s series opener; Casparius got up to 70 pitches in that one, which is key as the Dodgers need length in a bad way right now. Still, expect them to continue running out this makeshift six-man rotation for the foreseeable future.

• The Padres have been noncommittal about their fifth starter, but Stephen Kolek debuted with five and a third scoreless innings on Sunday, so he figures to have earned at least one more start in that role. That start would be in Colorado, and as we know, that could go one of two ways. Check back next week.

• Landon Roupp survived his start against the Cubs with minimal damage earned, and now he gets a lovely stretch starting with the Twins on Sunday. This Giants rotation is sneaky strong from top to bottom. Justin Verlander looks to continue his resurgent stretch against those same Cubs today, then he has a tasty two-start week coming up next week. What’s not to like?