Whether it’s early in the season, the middle of July, or late in the year, it’s always good to know where you stand in your Roto league.
Of course, perusing your league’s standings accomplishes that fairly quickly. However, numbers can often be misleading. Is your team producing at the level it should be as a league leader compared to the vast majority of other Roto leagues?
Are there underperforming players on your team, or available via waivers each week that could help you significantly in specific, or multiple, categories moving forward? This column aims to, and will, answer all those questions on a weekly basis, regardless of league size.
Essentially, it’s an almanac for Roto leagues and NFBC or TGFBI leagues, showing you not only the watermarks your team should be hitting category-wise to be truly elite but also the specific players that will help you get there. What’s more, it’ll also cover the top performers in each category, as well as some under-the-radar options for each metric as well.
Notes
A couple of quick notes before we begin. For metrics like ERA, WHIP, batting average, and on-base percentage, only qualified or close to qualified pitchers and hitters (respectively) were considered, especially at this time of year with smaller sample sizes running rampant.
Additionally, all rostered rate numbers are via FantasyPros as of Monday. Furthermore, in part due to NFBC leagues, all stats (as well as the rostered data) are via the previous week’s Sunday.
All the data in terms of Roto league production is from last year’s numbers.
Where You Should Be Producing In Each Category
Below is data for both 15-team and 12-team Roto leagues from last season and the average statistical totals that each placed team finished with. This is for the entirety of a season. Basically, if you want to do well in these two formats, these are the season-long watermarks to shoot for.
There’s also SGP data for both 15-team and 12-team formats.
Before we get any further, a massive thank you to Pitcher List Director of Data Analytics and Research Kyle Bland for getting a hold of the data.
And now, without further ado, the 15-team data, which comes from 2023 TGFBI leagues:
15-Team Leagues
(Quick reminder, the far left-hand column is where the team finished in the standings.)
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And here’s the 15-team, SGP data:
12-Team Leagues
And now for the 12-team, SGP data:
Category Power Rankings
Batting Average (AVG)
Leaders
Of Note: Yordan Alvarez.
For a hitter like Yordan Alvarez, an extremely productive stretch at the plate can turn the tides in a significant way for fantasy managers. And that’s exactly what’s happening now. Alvarez entered the week with multi-hit games in four of his last five outings and six of his last eight. He’d also collected five home runs in his past five games.
He looks well-positioned to top his previous career-high of 33 home runs set in 2021 and has the potential to be a top-five (or better) fantasy player the rest of the way.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Jose Iglesias.
Iglesias is once again thriving with a high BABIP. The veteran shortstop has never been much of a power hitter, but with consistently low strikeout rates, he’s posted strong numbers at the plate when the BABIP has played along. Case in point, the veteran hit .373 with a .400 on-base percentage, three home runs, a 160 wRC+, and a .407 BABIP in 150 plate appearances in 2020.
The numbers aren’t quite as gaudy this year, or at least the BABIP isn’t. Still, Iglesias is hitting .324 with a .367 on-base percentage and a .356 BABIP in 150 plate appearances for the Mets. Whether he can sustain that kind of production for the rest of the season remains to be seen, but as a short-term addition to provide a considerable boost in terms of weekly batting average numbers, Iglesias makes for an ideal addition for fantasy managers in leagues with 14 or more teams.
On-Base Percentage (OBP)
Leaders
Of Note: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is already an upper-echelon fantasy hitter this year in most rankings systems, but he probably would’ve ranked even higher if not for a March and April stretch that saw him hit just .229 in his first 136 plate appearances. That being said he largely logged excellent underlying metrics and was due for some positive regression during following that stretch.
Positive regression has kicked in in a big way since.
The first baseman has hit at least .300 with a wRC+ of 165 or higher and an OPS of .917 or better in each of the next four months.
Like Alvarez, he’s a potential top-five (or better) fantasy hitter the rest of the way.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Jake McCarthy.
Jake McCarthy has posted some quality numbers in the Majors before, namely in 2022 when he logged .283 with a .342 on-base percentage, eight home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 116 wRC+ in 354 plate appearances. However, he’s enjoying one of the most productive streaks of his Major League career.
From July 1 through the start of the week, the outfielder was hitting .356 with a .396 on-base percentage, three home runs, 10 total extra-base hits, four stolen bases, 18 runs scored, and 17 RBI.
That run of form certainly makes him worth adding in deeper leagues, but it’s also the type of positive momentum at the plate that puts McCarthy in play as (at worst) a longer-term streaming option in almost all fantasy leagues, regardless of the number of teams.
Home Runs (HR)
Leaders
Of Note: Anthony Santander.
With 35 home runs, 71 runs scored, and 79 RBI in his first 487 plate appearances this season, it’s easier said than done to acquire a hitter like Santander, but it might just be worth it considering his .227 BABIP.
Of course, that number, the second-lowest among qualified, isn’t the entire story, but given the quality contact Santander is making and the lineup he regularly hits in, the slugger could be a fantasy league winner in the coming weeks.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Paul DeJong.
DeJong has provided plenty of power production this season, batting .229 with a .278 on-base percentage, 19 home runs, and a .198 ISO in his first 388 plate appearances. Traded by the Chicago White Sox to the Kansas City Royals ahead of the deadline, it was unclear just what exactly DeJong’s role would be in Kansas City.
As of late, however, DeJong has settled in as the Royals starting third baseman. As long as that role continues, his rest-of-season fantasy outlook should improve considerably to the point where his rostered rate should be approaching the 40% number. Add him now before that happens.
Runs Scored (R)
Leaders
Of Note: Bobby Witt Jr.
This week’s top 10 is largely unchanged from last week, though with a slightly different order. What is becoming more and more apparent by the week is that Bobby Witt Jr. might be establishing himself as the top option to select in fantasy drafts next spring, even potentially in leagues where Shohei Ohtani is also eligible as a pitcher.
Of course, that’ll happen when you hit .347 with a .397 on-base percentage, 22 home runs, 25 runs scored, 100 runs scored, and 87 RBI. And oh yeah, a 170 wRC+ doesn’t hurt either. All in the league’s seventh-highest plate appearance total at 520.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Jonathan India.
The Reds might not be scoring like the top-10 offense they were last season, ranking behind 14 teams as of the beginning of play Monday in terms of runs scored, but India is enjoying a quality bounce-back season.
Posting elite chase and whiff rates, the 27-year-old is on track to improve considerably on his .339 xwOBA from last season. With nine home runs, 10 stolen bases, a 12.6% walk rate, and a .353 on-base percentage—not to mention getting to play half his games at the Reds’ launch pad of a home stadium – India should continue to be a quality option for runs scored and on-base percentage metrics. As long as those types of metrics continue, he’s a solid option to start at second base in leagues with 12 or more teams.
RBI
Leaders
Of Note: Josh Naylor.
Naylor, like Santander, has made consistent, quality contact this year.
Naylor, like Santander, is hitting in a lineup where he gets to hit near extremely productive batters.
And Naylor, like Santander, has been extremely unlucky in terms of batted ball luck so far with a .244 BABIP that is the fifth-lowest among qualified hitters.
Like Santander, trading for him is easier said than done, but making a deal for the Cleveland slugger could lead to a fantasy championship in a few weeks time.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Nolan Gorman.
Gorman has been decidedly more impactful against right-handed with just four of his home runs and a 73 wRC+ coming against left-handed pitching this season.
However, if you have the roster depth with plenty of quality average or on-base percentage options, and are looking to add more power production at an infield position, Gorman is very much worth a look in most fantasy leagues. Among qualified second basemen, only Ketel Marte has more home runs from that position this year.
Gorman is well on his way to finishing with a barrel rate north of the 16.0% mark for the second straight year and could be a game-changer in the fantasy playoffs where home runs are concerned.
Stolen Bases (SB)
Leaders
Of Note: Mikel Garcia.
Garcia has enjoyed a breakout season at the plate so far, but he’s struggled since the start of June, batting .205 with a .256 on-base percentage, a 46 wRC+, one home run, and 15 stolen bases. If the aforementioned DeJong continues to see regular starts at third base, it could push Garcia into a utility role, something that’d impact his fantasy ceiling considerably. Something to watch moving forward.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Zach Neto.
Simply put, Zach Neto probably needs to be rostered in significantly more leagues. Like a lot more. Ok, a lot, a lot more. However you want to phrase it, him being on just 47% of fantasy rosters is far too low, particularly with the second half he’s been having.
The infielder has been one of the bright spots for the Angels, both this season and as of late. Since July 1 he’s hitting .299 with a .393 on-base percentage, six home runs, 14 total extra-base hits, and 10 stolen bases. That’s all without mentioning the eight barrels he’s collected in that span, nearly half the 19 total barrels he had all of last season in 329 plate appearances.
Pitchers
Strikeouts (K)
Leaders
Of Note: Tyler Glasnow.
The pitcher who’s moved up the most in this specific, strikeout leaderboard, Glasnow was always going to be a constant in fantasy lineups, but he gets an extremely pitcher-friendly upcoming slate of projected starts. For the most part that is.
Assuming the Dodgers rotation continues as is without any interruptions, Glasnow’s next four starts will come at St. Louis, at home against Tampa Bay, at home to Baltimore, and on the road against the Angels.
The Orioles are obviously a tricky start, even for a pitcher like Glasnow, but the other three teams listed there rank in the bottom third in the league in runs scored since July 24.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Spencer Arrighetti.
Here are the starting pitchers with more strikeouts from June 26 through the start of the week than Arrighetti, who has been in fine form on the mound as of late.
That’s it, everybody.
Literally, only Cease has more strikeouts than the Astros starter, who also ranks fifth in the league in strikeout rate (33.7%) and strikeouts per nine innings (12.26) during that span.
In fact, here are two blind resumes. As you can probably guess one is Arrighetti.
The other is Gerrit Cole.
ERA
Leaders
Of Note: Consistency.
Eight of the top 10 from last week return, and it’s not hard to imagine most of those eight not only staying in the top 10, but finishing the year among the top 10 fantasy starters in the league.
Each of the eight is sporting a FIP of 3.48 or lower, with Burnes actually sporting the highest FIP of the group. Elsewhere, six have already reached the double-digit win tally. If you’re looking to forecast the pitchers with the 10 highest ADPs in drafts next spring, they’ll probably include some combination of Skubal, Burnes, Sale, Wheeler, Suarez, Greene, and Gilbert.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Nick Martinez.
After spending the bulk of the year in the bullpen, Martinez has stepped back into the rotation as of late for the Cincinnati Reds and thrived. He hasn’t given up a run (earned or otherwise) in his last two starts spanning 12 innings. The veteran didn’t give up a walk in that stretch either, scattering five total hits.
Overall, the right-hander posted identical CSW% rates of 31% in each start. And while pitching half of his games in Cincinnati won’t do pitchers any favors from a run-prevention standpoint, the 34-year-old has been elite at limiting mistakes and damage this season, giving up just 11 barrels and 10 walks in 91 innings this year while limiting batters to a minuscule 29.6% hard-hit rate.
He’s a must-add in all fantasy leagues at this point.
Wins (W)
Leaders
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Of Note: Sonny Gray.
Sonny Gray is back in the top-10 in wins, but his form on the mound is certainly worth monitoring moving forward. The veteran has given up five earned runs or more in three of his last five starts and in four of his last seven.
It might end up just being a blip on the radar, considering two of those outings came in tough situations (at Cincinnati and against Atlanta at home) while two more came versus the same opponent (the Washington Nationals).
Even with that stretch, Gray’s FIP is still hovering right above the 3.00 mark at 3.15, but it might be worth keeping him on the bench for a tough road start or an outing against an elite lineup. Of note: the Cardinals still have a three-game series in New York against the Yankees and in Colorado against the Rockies remaining on the schedule. The Yankees series is August 31 through September 1 while the Cardinals will head to Colorado from Tuesday, September 24 through Thursday, September 26.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: JP Sears.
The Oakland A’s might be further down in the standings this season, but the team has a number of players who’ll be difference-makers in the fantasy playoffs from Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler to Mason Miller and Shea Langeliers.
JP Sears might be moving into that territory as well with the way he’s pitched on the mound as of late. The veteran has gone at least seven innings in each of his last three starts, allowing a combined nine hits, four earned runs, one home run, and five walks. He has a reasonably fantasy-friendly upcoming schedule too.
Assuming the A’s rotation continues as is without any interruptions, the Oakland starter’s next six projected starts will feature matchups against five teams (the Giants, Reds, Mariners, Tigers, and White Sox) who rank outside the top 13 in the league in runs scored.
Quality Starts (QS)
Leaders
Of Note: Aaron Nola.
Nola is still providing elite fantasy production in leagues where quality starts are part of the scoring, but he might not be the must-start fantasy option he was a few years ago based on his production this season.
Nola is striking out 8.43 batters per nine innings, his lowest number in that category for a season with at least 110 innings pitched. His FIP, which tied a career-worst at 4.03 last year, has actually gone up a bit this year, though just barely, to 4.04. Still, it’s not the same type of production we saw from a pitcher who logged a FIP below 3.38 six times in seven years from 2016 through 2022.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: José Soriano.
Soriano’s ability to both induce grounders at a high rate (59.9%) and limit home runs (just 0.66 allowed per nine innings) have been key in helping him log a 3.36 ERA and a 3.82 FIP in 109.2 innings this season.
The right-hander’s next few projected starts (home to Atlanta and away to Kansas City) are probably outings to keep him on the bench for, but after that (and assuming the Angels rotation continues as is without any interruptions), Soriano will make six of his next seven starts either at home in a fantasy-friendly matchup (the Mariners, White Sox and Rangers) or on the road in either a pitcher-friendly ballpark (Detroit and Texas again) or against a struggling offense (the White Sox again).
Saves (SV)
Leaders
Of Note: Robert Suarez.
Suarez hasn’t pitched much outside of the ninth inning this year and has been rather dominant when pitching in the ninth so it remains to be seen if the Padres will occasionally use him earlier in games, but it’s something to watch for (potentially) down the stretch considering San Diego acquired high-leverage, late-inning relievers Tanner Scott and Jason Adam at the trade deadline. Of course, that’s all entirely speculative on my part, and might not be much of a factor, if any at all in terms of end-of-season save totals, but it’s something to keep an eye on now that the Padres have more late-inning relievers.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Victor Vodnik.
Vodnik looks like the closer for at least down the stretch in Colorado, what with eight saves, a 3.92 ERA, and a 3.77 FIP in 62 innings this season. Given how difficult it can be to find consistent saves, the Rockies reliever is very much worth adding off waivers.
One thing to watch moving forward is that the 24-year-old ranks in the 10th percentile or lower in both hard-hit rate and chase rate. It’s not the most ideal statistical pairing for someone whose home stadium is Coors Field, but Vodnik has so far been able to be generally effective.
WHIP
Leaders
Of Note: Bryce Miller.
The only new starter on the list, Miller has a fairly fantasy-friendly slate of upcoming potential starts, right in time for the stretch run for fantasy managers. You’ll probably want to temper expectations for his next projected outing against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, but after that Miller will see (assuming the Mariners’ rotation continues as is without any interruptions) starts against the Rays (at home), the Angels (on the road) and the Cardinals (on the road). Since the trade deadline, all three sit in the bottom half of the league in terms of the runs scored rankings.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Landon Knack.
Recently optioned to the minors, Knack began the week with a 3.07 ERA and a 4.88 FIP in 44 innings for the Dodgers this year, logging two pitcher wins in eight starts. The higher FIP combined with a .211 BABIP doesn’t make for the most ideal pair of stats but given the pitcher win potential in the Dodgers’ rotation, Knack is a quality option to stash for the stretch run for teams with deeper benches or minor league spots available.