Let’s get some basics out of the way regarding how to interpret these rankings. None of this stuff should come as any major surprise, but it never hurts to provide background:
- Stolen bases are losing value in a hurry, at least on a per-stolen-base basis. In 2022, zero players stole 10 bases in the first month of the season. In 2023, that number was six. Almost twice as many players picked up three steals in the first month of 2023 compared to 2022. In short, stealing 20 bases in 2023 doesn’t add the value it did in 2022. Steals are much more streamable now.
- So what am I doing with that conclusion? Back in 2022 and earlier, a projection of five or 10 stolen bases really mattered as finding those five or 10 steals was not only impactful to the standings, but it was difficult. It still impacts the standings, sure, but it’s no longer difficult. Five or 10 steals in 2022 is more like 10 or 15 steals in 2023 in terms of scarcity and procurement.
- If I want to get some insight on whether what I’m seeing is new or if it’s just normal fluctuation, I’d use my favorite tool—the rolling chart. Our PL Pro members can use the tools in the Hub, which I’ll also reference as appropriate. You can also get rolling charts from sources like FanGraphs or Baseball Savant. If you have any questions about how to do that or how to read these charts, reach out to me!
- No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), lineup context, and the skills we can measure using the tools in our PL Pro Tools Hub. I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators. Unlike Nick, I’ll also look at other rankings as I prepare my own to feel how my colleagues value certain players, positions, or stats. I recommend trying as many of these things as you can until you find what you like.
- Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.
- On a similar note, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.
- Anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 at-bats regardless of true talent. Heck, it could even last a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which of these will be true until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends give us hints.
- If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments!
Ranking Notes
Check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast featuring Scott Chu and Joe Gallina, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!
TIER 1
- New additions to Tier 1! Let’s start with Shohei Ohtani, who might be the most talented player that ever lived. I won’t start that debate right now, but in daily leagues where Ohtani is one player, he’s basically a cheat code. This ranking is only of the hitter Ohtani, who has shaken his “injury-prone” label after two consecutive 157+ game seasons and who appears well on his way to matching his legendary 2021 performance. Ohtani has cut his strikeout rate in each of the last three seasons, which has boosted his batting average to a point where I think expecting .275 is conservative. The underlying data supports everything you’re seeing in the box score, too.
- Coming in at number three is Fernando Tatis Jr., who is also incredibly talented (obviously). After a bit of a slow start to 2023, Tatis has absolutely exploded in June, slashing .400/.488/.814 over 18 games with six home runs and seven steals. That’s not a huge surprise, considering what we’ve seen from him before, but what IS a surprise is the 12.0% walk rate and 15.7% strikeout rate over that span. Tatis has sustained a sup-20% strikeout rate for quite a while this season, something very new to his game as you can see from the chart. If you told me Tatis and Ohtani would play a similar number of games the rest of the season, Tatis would be ahead of him; however, Tatis’s track record of durability is basically non-existent, so I give the nod to Ohtani. For what it’s worth, just about every publicly available projection system favors Tatis, so if you disagree with this ranking you’re not alone.
TIER 2
- Luis Robert Jr. doesn’t really conform to most expectations for a ballplayer. He’s just young, extremely athletic, and doing whatever he wants in the box. And it works.
- Bobby Witt Jr. is doing a lot better with his decision-making of late, and that’s extremely encouraging.
- I was disappointed that Ozzie Albies wasn’t running at all anymore, but I’m feeling much better about it if he’s going to keep hitting for this kind of power and staying healthy. Albies has missed significant time in two of the last three seasons, but if he stays healthy, he could certainly hit 30 home runs and bat .270. The OBP won’t help you (if you’re into that sort of thing), but counting stats should keep coming.
- It looks like I hate everyone in this tier, but really I just needed to boost Witt Jr. and Albies.
- Bryce Harper hasn’t found the power stroke yet coming off of surgery, but it will come eventually.
- Manny Machado is looking more like himself every day, so there’s something to look forward to for Padres fans.
- Josh Jung is slumping a bit this month, slashing just .232/.313/.406, but I won’t be worried unless the strikeout rate spikes and 16.9% is the opposite of a spike.
- Nothing is wrong with George Springer, I just wanted to move a few other guys up.
TIER 7
- Matt Chapman has always been streaky and I’ve tried to suffer through it, but it’s just getting to be too much at this point. He isn’t broken or anything, but perhaps I had been rating him just a bit too high.
TIER 8
For Tiers 8 and 9, there is a net gain of five to all rankings
- Luis Arraez is a tough cat to rank. His contributions to ratios are valuable, but if you’re way behind in batting average at this stage in roto, there’s just not much a single player can do to help you. Arraez is incredibly consistent from week to week, though, and that counts for something, doesn’t it?
- Yandy Díaz still isn’t giving us much power yet. I don’t think the early season binge was purely a mirage, but we are getting close to a recalibration point on rest-of-season projections.
TIER 9
- I had hoped Thairo Estrada would come close to his 2022 production in 2023, and here he is getting there in almost half a season (in terms of home runs and steals, anyway). Our own xAVG and xSLG models like Estrada way more than Baseball Savant, and I’m inclined to trust ours as we’ve added in elements like batted ball direction. I’m not sure Estrada can keep hitting .286, but even if he’s just a .260 guy the rest of the way, I think we’d all be very happy (unless we are against him in our leagues, of course).
- The Mets have been a huge disappointment from a fantasy perspective, as I was pretty sure a healthy Starling Marte would approach 15-20 home runs and 30 steals. The stolen bases are there (and then some), but with just three home runs to his name through 67 games, it’s looking like even double-digit home runs could be a challenge for Marte. Even with a rebound in the power department, the ceiling for Marte is considerably lower than I previously imagined.
- I’ve said it all season long, but Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is a weird hitter who I’ve never had a good read on. Hopefully, he kicks this short slump soon, but I won’t pretend to know what’s going on.
TIER 10
- Hoo boy, what a tier. Let’s start with Ketel Marte, who quietly has been much better than I realized. Razzball’s player rater actually has him as the 25th-best hitter on the season so far, and if he stays healthy, he appears to be on track for a 20 home run, 10 stolen base season with nearly 100 runs scored and excellent ratios. That’s sort of the kicker, though—Marte hasn’t played 140 in a season since 2019 (though he got close with 137 in 2022), and he even missed a quarter of the 60-game season in 2020. Marte’s career high in home runs is 14 (excluding 2019’s rabbit ball season), and he’s also never topped 11 stolen bases. I am betting Ketel does better than both this season, but he’ll need to get to about 140 games to do so.
- Gunnar Henderson exploded and I didn’t move him up, but he hasn’t completely faded either and he’s kept the strikeout rate manageable. He’s unlikely to keep the leadoff role when Cedric Mullins returns (which should be fairly soon), but he doesn’t need it to maintain value. This is an upside ranking, but we should all be weary of the risks.
- Elly De La Cruz’s big performances on Tuesday and Wednesday broke a 10-game stretch where he was batting just .244/.311/.268, though he did steal six bases in that time. I’d still really like to see the strikeout rate come down below 30%, and we should continue to expect some pretty radical ups and downs as he adjusts his somewhat underdeveloped hit tool to major-league pitching, but De La Cruz looks to have the extreme upside that was promised. The floor is pretty scary as well, though, so my rankings will likely be a bit on the conservative side for a while.
- Jorge Soler is strong, y’all. He’ll be streaky, as power hitters often are, but the juice is worth the squeeze.
- Spencer Steer turned the power back on over the last week or so, and that’s exactly what we wanted to see. As the lineup continues to improve around him, his floor and upside go up due to the potential for more counting stats to go with the 20-ish home runs and solid ratios.
TIER 11
- People don’t seem to like Brandon Drury, but he’s played as well or even better than expected so far this season, slashing .271/.316/.498 in his age-30 season. The strikeout rate is up, sure, but Drury is hitting the ball pretty hard, is eligible all over the infield, and he’s well on his way to a 23-25 home run season at his current pace. Batting fourth behind Ohtani and Trout ain’t so bad either.
- Matt McLain may fall short of both 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases, but this Reds offense is getting very exciting very quickly, and McLain is definitely a part of that. This move up is because I feel I’ve been underrating his floor—not a result of something I’ve necessarily seen in recent performances. He only has a single home run this month (though he does have four triples), and as that line drive rate continues to stabilize—it has dropped by 8.5 points in just the last week and a half because very few players can support an almost 30% or higher line drive rate for any meaningful amount of time—we will get a better idea of what McLain brings to the table long term.
TIER 12
There is roughly a +7 net gain in the rankings from here to the end
- I didn’t drop Dansby Swanson far enough, probably, but I’m trying to be patient.
- Nolan Jones had an excellent road trip—which is exactly what I said I was focused on last week. As a result, I’m willing to move Jones into the top 100.
- I don’t know what Byron Buxton is anymore.
TIER 13
- Jarred Kelenic can figure this out, I know it. Until he does, though, the fall continues.
- It’s great to see Jordan Walker succeed in his second trip to the majors. Since his call up his strikeout rate is just 17.9%, he’s slashing .339/.418/.593, and he already has four home runs. Granted, Walker still hits a lot of ground balls and he’s been caught in three of his four stolen base attempts since the call-up, but things are looking up for a guy who really did not get off to a great start.
- Brandon Nimmo is usually known for his plate discipline, but he’s striking out over 30% of the time so far this month and that terrifies me. Nimmo doesn’t have much power or speed, so he’s really supposed to be making up for it with ratios and runs scored. Can’t do that when you’re whiffing.
TIER 14
- Isaac Paredes continues to be a full-time player in Tampa, and that’s not an easy thing to be down there.
- I was not sold on Christopher Morel before, and this ranking suggests I’m not totally on board this time, either; however, unlike Morel’s earlier hot streak, this one is fueled by good decision-making. Morel has flashed good decision-making before only to go back to making bad ones (see the second chart below), but each time he does it, I like to think it has a slightly better chance of sticking around.
- I sort of forgot about Joc Pederson on the last list, so here he is. My bad.
TIER 15
- Sigh, Ryan McMahon. I can no longer willfully ignore the impressive results over his last 25 games (eight home runs, 43 combined runs and RBI, .381 batting average). He’s made some fixes to his mechanics at the plate, which is what McMahon says is the key to the newfound success. It’s worth noting that while McMahon has spiked before, his continued strong performance over the last week has pushed this spike to a MUCH higher place than we’ve seen before. New does not mean permanent, of course, but let’s see what happens.
TIER 16
- Eddie Rosario is the talk of the town, but this is still a guy who swings at everything and chases nearly half of the pitches he sees that are outside the zone (47.4% so far this season). He’s in the top three in both Swing% and O-Swing% and that means he’s still the same Eddie Rosario we’ve always known—he’s probably just hot right now.
- I’m out on Rowdy Tellez right now, and think he can be a roster casualty in most 12-teamers.
- Yainer Diaz is the catcher streamer of choice right now, and he has enough skills to become a guy you could keep the entire season if things play out right.
And now, once again, it’s time for the Hitter List:
And here’s the Taxi Squad, presented in no particular order:
Taxi Squad
What about Marcell Ozuna?
JD Davis is on the list twice. I love him BTW. Career .269/.353/.445 and this year it is .286/.367/.478. Statcast supports his production and he isn’t in a platoon.
Thanks! I always miss SOMEONE. Triston Casas has my attention and will slide into spot 150.
FYI! J.D. Davis is on the List twice.
Sorry. Just saw the previous Post.
No apologies necessary. The double-reminder feels appropriate.
How is Kyle Tucker moving up/maintaining? Peripherals are decent, but not top-7 hitter in the game.
He’s turning things around, making TONS of contact and stealing extra bases to make up for the dip in power recently. I am a huge fan of the overall talent here and expect one or two big months ahead. Tucker is an elite talent.
Your ranking on Josh Lowe alone really shows the inaccuracy of this list….
If that’s your biggest complaint with me then I’m doing alright, I’d say.
Marte’s expected stats are all Really close to his career level. I am hoping owners in my leagues are giving up on him by because I see him as a buy, especially because he is going to approach or exceed his career highs in SBs
Scott, I’m increasingly concerned about Mickey Moniak cutting into Hunter Renfroe’s playing time. I know you moved him up but is he in danger of becoming a platoon player?
Well, the net gain was supposed to be +7, so the +5 means I pretty much didn’t move him (apart from players above him falling). I’m not worried him about being a platoon player long term, especially to Moniak, who is closer to a replacement level player than a guy who can win a job over an established vet.
Why is Marcell Ozuna not on the list? He has been on a tear since May and is hitting on the heart of the order of a top 5 offense which will continue to increase his chances on adding to his counting stats
i think the author just doesnt really follow mlb
Fgf,
You are a know nothing idiot. If you have followed, or even have read the article preface, you’d see how his model rolls. You sound like one of those people who cut dangerously in front of other drivers so you can get one spot ahead.
Please go away if you can’t appreciate the complexity.
It appears that way as he only answers the easy and/or obvious questions and ghosting the real MLB Fantasy questions. I think it’s pretty clear that Nick is the one carrying this website