Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.
Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!
Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.
For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:
- This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
- Before the notes and rankings, an injury table outlines where players would be relatively ranked if they were fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
- If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week. (Spring edition: I have a few hypothetical rotation arms on The List who will be off the ranks if they leave camp out of the rotation).
- Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
- Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. The Cherry Bomb players are likely going to underperform those labeled as a Toby across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase ceiling vs. floor in many cases. Pick the one that you need most in your situation, of course.
- I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
- The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.
Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots. Injuries are so strange (especially in spring training) and instead of shoving them at random moments on The List, I’ve elected to throw all of them into one table here for you, the wise fantasy manager, to determine if it’s worthwhile to take the injury discount and when.
I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.
Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!
One last point about that – pitchers often need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.
I added something new to The List last season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me, and this rank will likely conflict with our weekly SP To Stash article from Rudy Ropp, though we will be conferring each week.. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.
They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers as s[ec adds at the very least. Some guys aren’t here and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.
Colors: Green = Worthy of a stash.
Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 75,000+ word Top 400 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.
Let’s get to it.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
- These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.
I’ve changed the notes this year to have a small blurb on everyone. Much easier to write and follow along in my view and it matches the formatting of the streamers. Please leave your feedback on this change – is it better or worse?
My Sincere Apologies
Hey y’all. I know the timing of this article isn’t ideal – it’s literally moments before the first pitch of the non-Korea series. Ideally this would have come out on Monday or Tuesday so you could have made a roster move or have it for your drafts.
I didn’t have as much time as I anticipated and in the end, it was do this version of The List where I could lock-in my ranks one last time before the whistle blew, or do nothing at all. So here we are.
Next Monday starts our routine weekly updates per usual, with few moves in the top ~40 SP and shuffling in the backhalf as we sort through who to drop and pick up at the backends of our rotations.
I’m excited for another fun season with all of you again, and I want to apologize in advance for all my incorrect rankings as we go. I’m in the business of good discussion, not being a prophet.
AGA,
-Nick
Tier 1 – The True Aces
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) – This is obvious. You don’t need me.
2. Corbin Burnes (BAL) – The situation in Baltimore helps with a better home park and higher Win chance. Trust Burnes to make the right adjustments with his pitches to avoid the longball more often and reduce the clunker outings in 2024. I’m not worried about his spring ERA.
3. Zack Wheeler (PHI) – Arguably the best four-seamer/sinker pair of heaters in the game, and now he has an improved splitter. You love to see it.
Tier 2 – AGA With Something To Prove
They have the AGA tag, though they all have a quirk that could mean they lose it by May.
4. Pablo López (MIN) – Tied for third most strikeouts in 2023 and should have a lower WHIP in his second season with increased velocity and improved arsenal depth.
5. Luis Castillo (SEA) – The four-seamer is legit, the slider is filthy, and his changeup is still solid. The adjusted sinker approach only made things easier for Castillo.
6. George Kirby (SEA) – I trust Kirby to make the right adjustment with his four-seamer to keep batters from effectively knocking it in play as often as they did last season. Meanwhile, his secondaries get better every season.
7. Kevin Gausman (TOR) – The shoulder is fine (he just needs an extra week or two and let’s be honest, the first turn of the rotation is always sub-par relative to the rest) and Gausman should be productive once again, even if I don’t anticipate his hit rate to be elite once again – his four-seamer gets hit harder than ideal (he lowered his arm angle last year and now has a FLAT four-seamer…and yet he had the lowest hiLoc% rate of any SP four-seamer) – making the WHIP continue to be the element preventing true SP #1 ace status.
8. Logan Webb (SFG) – His changeup may be the best in the game and mirrors his sinker so effectively that he’s destined to go deep into games once again as batters softly ground out. Meanwhile, the sinker can sneak into the zone for an elite 30%+ called strike rate as batters try to outsmart the changeup, and if Webb can unlock his slider, the days of 25-30% strikeout rates could appear. That’s a fun ceiling on top of a stable floor.
9. Cole Ragans (KCR) – He has a six pitch mix (new sinker y’all) that he commands effectively with a wise approach of not giving into batters. We’re talking 98+ mph heaters upstairs with cutters, curves, sliders, and changeups that all miss bats. It’s kinda bonkers and the injury history isn’t nearly as poor as you think. The biggest problem is his team – can Ragans earn enough Wins with the Royals offense supporting him?
10. Tarik Skubal (DET) – Despite some questions about Skubal’s arsenal strength (can he improve his slider? Is his command that elite?), Skubal’s 95/96 mph heater has become easy 97/98 mph in the spring, paired with a fantastic changeup that is sure to devour lineups consistently. Get hyped.
11. Tyler Glasnow (LAD) – It’s hard to predict volume, but Glasnow feels like one we should be able to say “this guy ain’t doing it all year”. After all, he hasn’t tossed 130 SP in the majors for a single year of his career and the Dodgers will do everything they can to ensure Glasnow is healthy for their potential playoff run. That said, his slider was the final piece of the puzzle that turned Glasnow into a bonafide stud and with the Dodgers crew behind him, the Wins should pour in. As long as he’s healthy, of course. Note: I am accounting for his start in the Seoul Series in this ranking, and it ultimately did not affect his overall ranking.
12. Zac Gallen (ARI) – I’m concerned about Gallen’s legitimacy. His arsenal does not overpower batters as much as those above in the ranks, relying on low call strikes to allow him to induce chases out of the zone with his curve and changeup. It’s a tight balance of strikes in the zone and timely chases that could fall apart quickly. In addition, after throwing 240+ innings last year as he pitched through the World Series, I’m concerned about his heightened injury risk for a pitcher reliant on volume. My logic is to take Glasnow instead for the higher quality of inning, the higher ceiling of Ragans and Skubal, or the higher floor of Webb.
13. Max Fried (ATL) – I was initially concerned about Fried’s health after recovering from a forearm strain in 2023, but now that he’s been in spring for over month with good velocity marks and zero signs of degradation (ignore the actual results, he’s working on things), Fried should rise back up your ranks. His quality is one of the safest around for one of the winningest teams around.
14. Aaron Nola (PHI) – If only Nola goes upstairs with his flat four-seamer more often…Sigh. He’s been the most reliable 200 inning guy around, and even in his down year, his WHIP soared to…1.15. Yeah. Expect better as the defense behind him improves + HRs go a little more in his favor.
Tier 3 – We Expect Success Every Night
They have to earn the AGA tag but are just a few starts away from it.
15. Bobby Miller (LAD) – The slider should wake up in his second season to become more of a putaway offering, raising his strikeout rate well past the 25% clip and flirting with 30%. I sincerely hope the Dodgers stop encouraging him to focus on low fastballs, though. At 100 mph, that pitch should blow past batters at the letters, thank you very much.
16. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) – The way I see it, the Dodgers will have Yamamoto pitch fewer innings than Miller given how long they expect Yamamoto to have on their team and how Miller was set up for a 160-180 inning season after 2023. Throw in some acclimation to playing games in a new league with a different ball, sprinkle in a fastball that isn’t as great as I originally thought, and you have yourself a consistent arm who may have a few growing pains and a gap in strikeouts and Wins than the likes of Nola and Fried. Volume, y’all. Note:I am accounting for his start in the Seoul Series in this ranking, and it ultimately did not affect his overall ranking.
17. Zach Eflin (TBR) – Eflin should be the kitchen sink arm of gold for Tampa Bay, leaning more on curves and cutters for the second season in a row. There could be a step back in consistency + his injury track record isn’t sparkling, making me a touch concerned he can hit 180+ innings. That said, he’s still a safe play as an SP #2 for any squad.
18. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) – Oh hey, Nick is super indecisive again. I watched more Grayson and his command is still a bit wonky, okay? It’s always difficult to discern if a rookie is going to continue developing or if they need more time than others to unlock their true potential. The addition of a sinker might help Grayson, but we haven’t seen it a whole lot, making him still hyper reliant on a hard heater that isn’t spotted as gracefully as I’d like.
19. Freddy Peralta (MIL) – He was so dang good after the first two months of last season and his upped velocity is still holding in the spring. However, Peralta has made a career of volatility and it feels wrong to rank him any higher with his track record of both low volume and inability to produce consistently across a full year. Those super-cross body pitchers are so hard to rank.
Tier 4 – So Dang Close To Greatness
I trust all these pitchers to produce this season while they also carry the ability to be more than an SP #3. Sonny Gray and Bryan Woo would be in this tier.
20. Joe Musgrove (SDP) – The only reason you’re seeing Musgrove lower than this on other rankings is because of health concerns and I don’t share the same feelings. He dropped a weight on his toe, then had shoulder stiffness as he tried to ramp up a little too quickly coming back, and the elbow bursitis had the same catalyst, in my view. The early results in spring have not been promising, but his health is intact. That’s what matters. Note:I am accounting for his start in the Seoul Series in this ranking, and it ultimately did not affect his overall ranking.
21. Framber Valdez (HOU) – The changeup is a major weapon against RHB that should increase in usage this year…if he’s reluctant to go to his cutter once again. Just stop with so many dang sinkers, alright? I worry about Valdez’s hit rate with so many grounders and a sinker that gets pummeled constantly, but his Win chance is high and his ERA should help far more than hurt.
22. Joe Ryan (MIN) – It wasn’t a great start to the spring, but I’m starting to adore Ryan’s new slider and splitter + another uptick in his velocity to 93 mph. Featuring out of the latest attack angles on his four-seamer, Ryan’s heater is destined to continue dominating upstairs. As long as one of those two secondaries can keep batters honest (and maybe some new sinkers?) Ryan will bring down the home runs, allowing him to go six frames with production across the board.
23. Justin Steele (CHC) – I was reluctant to rank Steele this high, but I’ve become a bigger believer in his command of the four-seamer (it’s a cutter), while his slider grades out far better than I expected. I hope the new changeup he’s been working on takes a step forward as well as Steele feels like one of the final arms who could be a proper workhorses with the potential for 180+ strikeouts at 180 innings.
24. Bailey Ober (MIN) – We already liked Ober before the spring and now that he’s sitting 1-2 ticks harder with a slider/cutter that gets strikes, and now we love Ober. You sound Gollum. What, you don’t want a ring? Touché.
25. Chris Sale (ATL) – Sale is looking healthy and is in a much better team context than the Red Sox last year. Eric Samulski has sold me on the morale boost of joining Atlanta and I doubt you’ll regret having Sale on your squad, making him a productive member as long as he stays healthy.
26. Yu Darvish (SDP) – The dude finds a way to pile strikeouts each year and is figuring out ways to perfect his approach constantly. I trust Darvish’s innate skills to find the approach that works best, letting his legit breakers soar, and focusing on his using his four-seamer as a deadly weapon with two-strikes. Note: I am accounting for his start in the Seoul Series in this ranking, and it ultimately did not affect his overall ranking.
27. Michael King (SDP) – Like Woo, King ticks all the boxes you want for volume, command, and strikeout ability, though I have a little more concern about King’s longevity this year. I hope he’s able to collect 160+ frames, but without a full season under his belt yet (nor the routine of it like Woo), there’s a bit more haze. In addition, King’s approach of sinker/sweeper/change (with a sprinkle of four-seamers) makes him a little more susceptible to damage against LHB than Woo, whose four-seamer can still overwhelm.
28. Logan Gilbert (SEA) – Yes, Gilbert is the fourth ranked Mariner. Blame his questionable four-seamer command that held a sub 10% SwStr rate last year. Expect the WHIP to climb this year from its unsustainable sub 1.08 mark last year as we can only hope the heater can return to form. At least the new slider should stick around…right?
29. Shane Bieber (CLE) – Pretty shocking, I know. The velocity looks real and he fixed his curveball after he lost the proper feel for it in 2023. Throw in what I’m speculating to be an excellent Guardians defense behind him and you have yourself a sturdy arm close to his old 24% strikeout rate at solid ratios. I kinda hate how I didn’t have this change of heart say, a month ago, but it’s been one of my biggest questions the last ten days and I’m aggressively pursuing him now that I know more.
Tier 5 – Why Do I Feel So Scared?
This is the toughest tier to rank and will likely be filled with landmines. Which will turn into the stud you dreamed of and which will be the bust?
30. Blake Snell (SFG) – He should sign at any moment and this rank isn’t reflective of that haze but rather the uncertainty of his ability in 2024. Snell threw the fewest mistake pitches of any starter, but did so as the cost of free passes and delicately left them stranded at an unrealistic clip during his Cy Young run. And despite all of it, he still had a 1.19 WHIP and failed to complete the sixth inning with regularity. It’s just too much annoyance for me.
31. Shota Imanaga (CHC) – There’s a part of me that feels like Imanaga is going to turn into the classic Robbie Ray or Matthew Boyd mold that Hunter Greene has presently claimed – high strikeouts at the cost of plenty of longballs. If Imanaga can incorporate his splitter and curve enough to keep batters off his fastball when it falls down in the zone (or his slider when hung upstairs), he’s destined to be the arm that makes your leaguemates jealous. I trust his command more than that trio, though, which makes me believe he’ll avoid the dreaded Cherry Bomb tag and be the AGA his name suggests.
32. Dylan Cease (SDP) – The four-seamer has elite velocity and iVB, but average VAA and terrible extension, and as a two-pitch pitcher, Cease needs to locate or get pummeled. However, the move to San Diego is a fantastic shift for Cease, granting him a better offense and defense (Wins! Improved ratios!), plus it opens the door for a new pitch to emerge. That last part is highly optimistic, but I fight tooth and nail for Cease to learn a cutter this year. Wish me luck.
33. Jesús Luzardo (MIA) – Despite sitting 96+ mph, his extension and fastball shape makes for a super hittable heater that has to be located well to get through games. His slider isn’t well commanded either and 2023 was the first season when he avoided a major injury across his career. Too many warts for me to chase.
Tier 5.5 – The Pitcher List Hall Of Famers
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Tier 6 – The Tiled Floor
I expect all of these arms to consistently go every five days and flirt with six frames, each with legit potential for a 25% strikeout rate, if not more in some cases. I may not love them, but you shouldn’t find a 12-teamer without them on a squad and for good reason. Gavin Williams and Justin Verlander would be in this tier.
34. Tanner Bibee (CLE) – His fastball terrible and his slider + changeup supported a phenomenal rookie campaign. I worry about the command of the latter pair, which need to improve in order to replicate success without a strong heater. But hey, he already did it once and he could get better, right? I’ve also come a bit around on the Guardians’ defense as of late, which should help Bibee as he theoretically matures as a sophomore.
35. Triston McKenzie (CLE) – He’s healthy once again and we should be treating McKenzie like we did at this time last year. Sign me up for a 25% strikeout arm with one of the best iVB four-seamers in the game and a stupid good curveball. Seriously, it’s that simple.
36. Chris Bassitt (TOR) – He’s done this for ages and it’s hard to deny the value of Bassitt’s ratios + Wins on the Jays.
37. Merrill Kelly (ARI) – It’s a good defense, solid offense, and his last two seasons have been fueled by a new (now old) changeup grip. I was originally concerned about his heater, but honestly, Kelly has looked like exactly the same guy as last year and I’ve started to value his consistency a bit more in my drafts.
38. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) – The velocity is back to 96 mph, but will he keep it there without injury? This would mark the third year in a row if he were to fall to 93/94 mph during the year, after all.
39. Nick Pivetta (BOS) – The new whirlybird sweeper was a gamechanger for Pivetta and paired with his cutter and curve, it made for the full arsenal he’s always dreamed of. However, I’ve found myself lately leaning more away from the full belief that all of Pivetta’s command issues of old are eradicated. The off-season is long and full of terrors, making Pivetta’s drop-potential by May 15th higher than I previously wanted to acknowledge. I still believe in this, but not quite as much as the others.
Tier 7 – High Quality Cherry Bombs
We all know these arms could be Top 25 SP if not higher. That puts them above Tier 8, but below the security of Tier 6. And yes, it’s more believable than Tier 10.
40. Bryce Miller (SEA) – I so badly want to believe in Miller but I just don’t think he has good enough command to properly develop the same way as Woo. I truly hope I’m wrong, though, and the small sample of one year isn’t enough for me to be completely out.
41. Hunter Brown (HOU) – I’m undecided and will simply put him because it’s hard not to believe the Astros will help him refine the secondaries and nail down the four-seamer approach, while last year’s fatigue should rectified in another year. You know, building stamina n all.
42. Cristian Javier (HOU) – I’m a believer in Javier finding his slider once again as it was the sole reason for his decline in 2023 (nope, not the velocity on the heater as it did all the right things regardless). Just throw 60%+ strikes with secondaries (it doesn’t need to be the slider!) and Javier’s four-seamer can do the rest.
Tier 8 – The Chaperoned Field Trip
These arms have ceilings we like while also having less perceived risk than other ceiling arms (Tier 10), or a higher ceiling than the other safer arms (Tier 9).
43. Casey Mize (DET) – He got the gig for the Tigers and has displayed an elite four-seamer not just with stuff, but with precision upstairs + a slider for strikes with splitters underneath. He’s set up for six innings of consistency with upside for a 25% strikeout rate. I love this.
44. Jack Flaherty (DET) – Yeah, I’ve assessed Flaherty completely wrong this pre-season. I watched his last outing and not only was he doing a great job of using a varied velocity (leaving 97 mph in the tank and generally around 93/94), but he was living around the zone comfortably and spotting great sliders. What I’m seeing is a relatively sturdy arm with potential of heading into Tier 6 or Tier 7 as long as he can keep that strike persistence alive. And here I thought he was lost and had no chance of keeping up 94/95 mph.
45. Kutter Crawford (BOS) – I adore Crawford’s arsenal. However, after watching him this spring, I’ve become more skeptical that he can properly execute his arsenal in a way that wins the hearts of fantasy managers everywhere. His four-seamer isn’t elite, but carries good iVB and needs to land upstairs as more of a surprise pitch than a bullying affair (meh extension and VAA at just 93/94), and it’ll come down to separating that heater from his kutter, slider, and curve to shine. My previous rank was banking on that too much and I’ve brought him down in retrospect.
46. A.J. Puk (MIA) – His heater is great. His slider is great. His splitter exists and I haven’t been able to see it properly in action yet. The biggest concern is his stamina through the season – can he go six innings? For how long? – and we’ll worry about that later.
47. DL Hall (MIL) – This could change quickly if the next week or two showcase mediocrity, but I see Hall and I see a legit four-seamer, slider, and changeup that can all be thrown for strikes while racking up whiffs. That’s the fun I want. Fun fact: He went 0-2 on each of the first six batters he faced in his last start, ending on a 0-1 pitch for an out. That’s the good stuff.
48. Luis Gil (NYY) – Gil has a phenomenal fastball and two pitches he now throws for strikes in his changeup and slider. The Yankees chose Gil as their fifth start and carries legit fantasy upside at a 25-30% strikeout rate. He’s worth the spec add to see if this can turn into a legit fantasy arm out of the gate.
49. Ryan Pepiot (TBR) – I’ve been surprised that Pepiot actually did the thing – he’s been locating four-seamers upstairs far more than he did with the Dodgers. Hopefully he can go full BSB with the heater/change/slider, though the Rays may limit him a decent amount and frustrate us along the way. Then there’s the whole “how good is his command actually?” thing.
Tier 9 – Security, But At What Cost?
These are pitchers in safe rotation spots who could go six frames a game, though they each have warts that may turn them into a Toby or flat-out dropped quickly, without the overwhelming ceiling of Tier 8. Jordan Montgomery would be in this tier.
50. Brayan Bello (BOS) – I love the sinker/changeup combo and the increased emphasis of a slider entering this year. He has the tools to become something more given his makeup as a mini-Webb.
51. Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) – He’s just like Bello from the opposite side, but without as many previously logged frames. That changeup is disgusting. I have some slight worry that the increased velocity is making his changeup worse – it’s closer to the fastball and not moving/locating in the same way as last year. Let’s hope it’s all good.
52. Tanner Houck (BOS) – There are times I prefer Houck over Whitlock, but then I remember I still haven’t seen a successful approach against LHB. Houck is apparently up in velocity this spring with a slightly tweaked delivery and I’m so curious how it pans out.
53. Nestor Cortes (NYY) – He’s healthy in camp right now and that’s a wonderful thing, even if the results haven’t been great. The velocity was down to 91 mph (not 92 mph) last time out and given his track record, we could get negative news at any moment. Let’s hope he can replicate 2022.
54. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) – Okay, I messed up. Again. I rose Kikuchi high last week, predicated on “he was so great last year, why not more of the same?” without really considering Kikuchi’s history of questionable command and wishcasting an increase of four-seamers this year. I’m settling now in the middle, higher than before, but not inside the Top 50, and I think this makes all the sense. Sorry about that.
55. José Berríos (TOR) – The switch to sinkers over four-seamers helped Berríos plenty last season, though he’s still susceptible to high ICR rates and it makes me a little uncomfortable. At least you get solid volume here at hopefully little ratio sacrifice.
56. Aaron Civale (TBR) – After reviewing a full start with him on the YouTube channel in December, it became clear Civale plans to lean more on sliders in 2024. I hope we see it.
57. Reese Olson (DET) – Olson could be a solid ratio play throughout the year without sacrificing a ton of strikeouts, especially now that he has a secure roster spot. Just stop throwing that dang four-seamer.
Tier 10 – Plaid Shirts and a PBR
They could easily be anchors of your staff – both bad and good, with heavy HIPSTER risk. I personally don’t like having guys like these on my teams, but I recognize I was too harsh previously as I didn’t weigh the potential impact of it clicking high enough. Just be disciplined to move on if this doesn’t work early. Nick Lodolo would be in this tier.
58. Carlos Rodón (NYY) – The velocity isn’t quite there yet (sitting 94.5, not 95.5) and there’s a chance it continues to build through April. I’m worried you’re going to be stuck with Rodón longer than you should, forcing him down here. I could easily be absolutely wrong about this, but his velocity was higher in 2021 and 2022. It doesn’t look right.
59. Hunter Greene (CIN) – There will be a ton of strikeouts so fine, go for it. I personally think Greene is too much of a Cherry Bomb with a heater that is much more hittable than the velocity would suggest. The new splitter and curve aren’t enough for me to believe he can overcome the home park and his fastballs that leak over the middle of the plate.
60. Mitch Keller (PIT) – His fastballs are terrible, and if Keller leans into his cutter and breakers, there’s a chance he stabilizes across the year. Until then, he’s a Cherry Bomb who relies on pristine command to thrive.
Tier 11 – 14-Day Return Policy
Try out these young arms the first week of the season and see how it goes. They could be on your roster all year or showcase too much volatility to get the boot after their first start or two.
61. Reynaldo López (ATL) – He has the job in Atlanta now with a great fastball and whiffable slider. It’s a case where he could hold the job all year as Atlanta deals with other problems in the rotation and I find myself refusing to turn away from such a good situation.
62. Gavin Stone (LAD) – I’ve been heavily down on Stone entering this season and after talking to many and watching his spring as he seized a #5 rotation spot, I’m in the boat of “what the h*ck, let’s give it a shot”. He’s throwing 1.5 ticks harder, still carries an elite changeup, and may have an improved slider that allows him to take full advantage of his spot in the Dodgers’ rotation. It could be a case, like ReyLo, where he runs away with it even when all the other starters return granted the injury risks of his peers, or it could be a limited thing with other Dodgers arms showing up in the fifth to replace him constantly.
63. Trevor Rogers (MIA) – After a large delay in the spring, Rogers hath returned and has shocking security inside the Marlins rotation as their #3 starter. His slider has returned to form, while the changeup that has been missing for ages looked filthy in his last outing. Take note: Rogers was sitting a bit low at 91/92 instead of 93-95 in his second outing. I’m not incredibly worried at the moment (especially given command and feel for his breakers was previous a bigger issue), but if it persists closer to 90 mph than 94, then I’ll be lowering Rogers moving forward.
64. Jared Jones (PIT) – He chucks upper-90s heaters with a disgusting slider. I hope he can replicate the sub 10% walk rates of the minors along the way, though, and the Pirates may ultimately keep him out of the rotation when leaving camp. The upside is too great to ignore if he lands a rotation spot, forcing me to rank him far higher than I imagine y’all expected. If news breaks that he isn’t in the rotation, ignore him completely in your drafts.
65. Louie Varland (MIN) – Hey, there are actually letting him start! Annnnd, he was atrocious in his first game after Anthony DeSclafani hit the IL. Sigh. His command was atrocious and if he’s able to execute anything close to resembling the BSB, this will be fun. That said, I have to recognize that he has yet to really string it together and there are other options with solid potential, too.
66. MacKenzie Gore (WSH) – I was out until I watched him not only sport a tick more fastball velocity, but actually elevate them with intent in multiple starts this year. It could just be a flash in the pan, but if that’s real, Gore could have a true breakout ahead.
67. Jordan Hicks (SFG) – Hicks’ slider is better than last year, but I’m still not convinced he can throw enough strikes to make this work long term. He also gets the Padres twice to start the year and that doesn’t sound like fun.
68. Max Meyer (MIA) – He got the fifth job for the Marlins and I think it’ll hold for a moment as he proudly becomes the sole RHP representation in the Marlins rotation. His slider is great, the other parts a bit questionable, but I’d roll with Meyer early in his matchups and see how it plays out.
Tier 12 – The Tobys You Want To Be Hollys
These arms are generally going to stick on your team throughout the year, but you constantly wondering if they are doing enough to help.
69. Tyler Wells (BAL) – We’ve been awfully quiet about Wells this off-season and now that the Orioles need him in the rotation, Wells could put on the command clinic of last year as he had incredible pitch separation to grant stupid good ratios to trusting managers. The great news here – Wells will get KCR + @PIT to kick off the year. I’m all for Wells as a late filler for my team to ensure I have solid volume as I chase higher ceiling arms.
70. Garrett Whitlock (BOS) – I like Whitlock, right? I wish I had more data and a better camera angle this spring, but what I haven’t enjoyed is the lack of clarity surrounding his mix. Is his sinker better now? Are his changeup and slider his primary secondaries and are they getting consistent whiffs like before? Fenway doesn’t help the cause either, though his ability to go six for a decent club with legit strikeout ability has me still grabbing him in drafts. It’s weird.
71. Luis Severino (NYM) – I’m not seeing a large enough improvement this spring that would suggest that Severino has fixed his issues from last season, but maybe just eliminating tipping can make him worthwhile early against the Brewers?
72. James Paxton (LAD) – Will this last all season? Absolutely not. Will the Dodgers squeeze the most out of Paxton while they can out of the gate? Absolutely.
73. Michael Soroka (CHW) – Soroka is in a great situation in Chicago and who knows what he can bring to table after many years removed from the game due to injury. Ther are rumblings of an improved four-seamer and slider and you can draft him, then get a quick glance that weekend in a cushy matchup against the Tigers, then decide if you want the Royals after. You may have a secret quality start stud here you never let go of all year.
74. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) – Some are buying into Pfaadt, but I’m worried that his best pitch is a sweeper that gets crushed by LHB. The four-seamer doesn’t get elevated enough and his changeup is inconsistent. I don’t see a clear path to being much more, save for getting in the great rhythm he had last fall.
75. Michael Wacha (KCR) – I love the home park and Wacha’s command + elite changeup make for a decent Toby you can quickly move on from if it goes south.
76. Marcus Stroman (NYY) – You know what you’re getting with a strong offense behind him. Who needs strikeouts, right?
77. Seth Lugo (KCR) – He has a rotation spot and should be a regular streamer for you, but he’ll make you pull your hair out if you’re relying him every week of the year.
Tier 13 – Strikeouts Are A Vice, Y’all
They have some enticing strikeout ceilings, but we don’t actually believe this will hold throughout the season.
78. Kenta Maeda (DET) – He’s still a touch down in velocity, but the early matchups of CHW and @OAK merged with splitter and slider whiffs returning this spring make Maeda a solid pick in any draft. At worst you start him twice and move on, right?
79. Ryan Weathers (MIA) – Weathers leads all pitchers with 17 strikeouts this spring with a 1.32 ERA in just 13.2 IP. It’s a product of increased four-seamer velocity and an improved slider and now with a rotation spot, you should consider Weathers in your drafts just to see what happens.
80. Chase Silseth (LAA) – Do I buy that Silseth can live with a deadzone four-seamer? Not really, though if he spots it well and leans heavily into his slider and splitter, there’s a chance. He still has that 10 strikeout potential, after all.
81. Garrett Crochet (CHW) – Yes, I prefer Nastrini over Crochet, you know, the one who actually has a job. I worry that Crochet doesn’t do enough with his fastball/slider combination, nor does he have strong enough command to make him a reliable arm for your fantasy squads. With the Tigers + Atlanta on the horizon for his first two starts, you can grab him for opening day and take it from there. I’d hate to lose out on the other guys in this tier should they get their proper roles, though, forcing me to place Crochet at the end of the tier.
82. Reid Detmers (LAA) – The four-seamer is not a good pitch and that’s what scares me. However, he’s looking just like the guy I fell for in 2022 and 2023 springs with his slider consistently landing down-and-in to RHB for whiffs. If only I believed he’d have the feel all season…
83. Charlie Morton (ATL) – He’s more hittable than ever and while the strikeouts and Wins are cool, I’m terrified of the ratios. The Wins may not be as plentiful because of a likely increase in ERA, too.
84. JP Sears (OAK) – His four-seamer is looking great in the spring with more zip and precision upstairs and it’s kinda bonkers. It’s one of the highest rated PLV pitches and if he’s able to keep his sweeper and changeup down, then hot dang, he’s something.
85. Kyle Harrison (SFG) – He’s a Cherry Bomb who you’ll be stuck with all year. I don’t trust the command and his arsenal is too shallow to save him. This has HIPSTER written all over it.
Tier 14 – Fine, You Need Some Streams & Other Randos
Sneaky starters who could find you some wins or quality starts but shouldn’t be held with adoration in your 12-teamers.
86. Erick Fedde (CHW) – I still haven’t gotten any proper data on Fedde, nor a good camera angle to proper scout him. That said, reports are that he has increased velocity, a far better arsenal, and more strikeout potential than his days with the Nationals. He has all the freedom he’d ever want in the White Sox rotation and I’m cool taking a stab at Fedde the opening weekend to see if it’s something you want to hold onto or not. He hasn’t blown us away in the strikeout department yet, sadly.
87. Sean Manaea (NYM) – I’m not seeing enough growth in the secondaries to chase this again, even if he’s at 93+.
88. Zack Littell (TBR) – I just don’t think what he does is all that great. Maybe if he showcases that he can be a BSB guy, then I’ll jump in. Just a streamer for now.
89. Chris Paddack (MIN) – I don’t see a pitcher with an elite arsenal. Maybe what he has is enough to be consistently productive, but I get the sense he’s mediocre with more risk than this is worth.
90. Clarke Schmidt (NYY) – The Yankees will be turning to Schmidt to go as deep as possible and if he’s able to figure out his cutter to LHB, he’ll be able to produce enough to justify a 12-teamer roster spot. I also hate his first matchup lands against the Astros. Blegh.
91. Jon Gray (TEX) – It’s a great slider and nothing else. There’s strikeout upside with some Win potential as a stream, but it breaks the Huascar Rule.
92. Griffin Canning (LAA) – His four-seamer and slider get hit far too hard + I don’t trust the Angels to get the most out of him.
83. Ryne Nelson (ARI) – He’s been showcasing 97 mph at times this spring with an improved breaker and intent to elevate. With a comfortable #5 spot for the Diamondbacks, I can’t help but wonder if Nelson is primed for a sneaky good year. But he’s been throwing closer to 94 and flirting with 95 mph lately. Yeaaaah. I know. At least it’s Rockie Road in his first start? And then Atlanta. I KNOW.
94. Bowden Francis (TOR) – With Manoah on the mend, the Jays will likely turn to Francis, who sports a great curveball and a four-seamer with solid shape to it. However, I worry his command isn’t there, nor that he has a third or fourth pitch to help complement the pair. Pay attention early in the year and maybe there’s some hidden hold here.
95. J.P. France (HOU) – France expressed his desire to return to his SwStr rate of old this season and with a deep arsenal, I can’t help but wonder if France becomes a reliable arm as he settles into a rotation spot with the Astros. With Urquidy out, he’d retain a spot even when Verlander returns and you may be thrilled with what you get.
96. Frankie Montas (CIN) – There’s a little intrigue as the opening day starter vs. the Nationals, though he needs to display 96+ mph heaters with a legit splitter & slider before I’d sign in with Cincy as his home park.
97. Lance Lynn (STL) – The four-seamer is everything and has gotten worse every season. Moving to the Cardinals may help just for the change of scenary, but it’s a longshot.
98. Logan Allen (CLE) – It’s a great early matchup against the Athletics that I’m okay streaming. That is all.
99. Carlos Carrasco (CLE) – Same with Carrasco. That’s all we’re doing here and going from there.
100. Kyle Freeland (COL) – This is a bit tongue in cheek BUT he gets @ARI and @CHC in his first two starts (not Coors!) and is sitting 3.5 ticks up his heater this spring. Who knows, maybe he comes through on the road looking like his 2018 self for a moment.
Honorable Mentions
You’re getting little blurbs on everyone else contending for a rotation spot or not on the Rockies (mostly). This is not in ranking order.
Matt Manning (DET) – I still can’t believe the Tigers optioned Manning to Triple-A. He looks primed to be a six-inning arm with an improved heater and slider, even if he doesn’t have the upper ceiling of others. If you’ve drafted him, you can let him go back to the wire for now.
Joe Boyle (OAK) – His stuff is so good. His command is so bad. Don’t fall for guys who can’t locate (this is different than Snell, who misses with a purpose. Big difference than Boyle who literally aims for the middle of the plate with every pitch).
Ross Stripling (OAK) – It’s the Athletics and Stripling doesn’t have enough upside.
Alex Wood (OAK) – Once we get proper data, I wonder if we’ll see anything pop out for Wood. I highly doubt it.
Paul Blackburn (OAK) – At least he’s going cutter heavy now…?
Dean Kremer (BAL) – It’s all about his cutter’s success and I don’t think his repertoire is all that great. There’s a small part of me that wonders if the Orioles will put up with Kremer and maybe give a shot to Suarez or Armbruester early in the year. Small.
Cole Irvin (BAL) – Velocity fell as spring continued and he isn’t locating like a better Wade Miley to make this enticing.
Ranger Suárez (PHI) – He’s a Toby at best who has been sitting 1-2 ticks down this spring. He’s had solid command, though, so if his velocity returns and he’s in that groove, he may turn into a Vargas Rule.
Spencer Turnbull (PHI) – He’s in the rotation for now as Taijuan Walker recovers, but you should ignore this. It’s four-seamer (really cutter) + sweeper and it isn’t at a high enough level.
Brady Singer (KCR) – Just got blown up in the spring, making it harder to believe that he’s truly expanded the repertoire to a better place.
Alec Marsh (KCR) – He earned the fifth spot and if you’re still thinking about that 11 strikeout game from last year, you’ll be lucky to get those in his first two outings combined.
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) – Ditto, but slider and changeup instead.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) – He’s a desperate streamer.
Andrew Heaney (TEX) – He’s the poster child of chaos.
Dane Dunning (TEX) – There are times his slider and cutter do enough to make it work. Maybe worth a pickup for a Vargas Rule at some point.
Cody Bradford (TEX) – He has a rotation spot, so maybe a desperate streamer?
Adrian Houser (NYM) – It’s fastballs all day and sometimes it works.
José Quintana (NYM) – Not the worst streaming option when he’s locked in with his command, but I’m not ready to trust that against the Brewers.
Tylor Megill (NYM) – His four-seamer is down in velocity, isn’t located well, and his new splitter has failed to sit low with any consistency. Oh, and that four-seamer has terrible movement and relies solely on extension. Blegh.
Josiah Gray (WSN) – He had some moments this spring, but it doesn’t look like he’s boasting any major changes to the repertoire. No thanks.
Patrick Corbin (WSN) – There’s a new cutter for both RHB and LHB that may actually make a difference this season. Sleeper for NL-Only..? Crazy, I know.
Trevor Williams (WSN) – #NeverTrevor
Jake Irvin (WSN) – He’s throwing a little harder and it’s still not a good fastball. His secondaries don’t do a whole lot either.
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) – It’s getting worse and that’s not a fun time for an 87 mph heater.
Jordan Wicks (CHC) – He struck out six with his heater, a pitch that was awfully pedestrian (if not worse) last year. I haven’t seen any other signs that he’s made the pitch remarkably better, and now he’s slated to get @TEX to kick off the season. Nope.
Javier Assad (CHC) – He’s filling in for the hurt Jameson Taillon (A healthy Taillon is a touch under Tyler Wells in the ranks) and I don’t expect him to go long nor produce, even against Rockie Road.
Nick Martinez (CIN) – I hope he’s actually starting and throwing at least 40% changeups while axing the dang four-seamer.
Graham Ashcraft (CIN) – The command is just so bad. The stuff may help him survive some games with low strikeout totals, but hot dang, it’s not a fun time.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) – He’s around until Nick Lodolo shows up, which means he gets @PHI and hosts the Mets. Super risky starts for a guy who hasn’t polished his approach yet.
Tommy Henry (ARI) – He’s in until Jordan Montgomery is ready to go or Eduardo Rodriguez is healthy and trust me, the Diamondbacks feel the same way too.
Jordan Montgomery (ARI) – Figured I’d have a word or two on him. As he’s not in the rotation yet while he ramps up, I see Montgomery as a potential Holly, though his ability doesn’t come with a Top 25 SP ceiling, unless he gets super fortunate with Wins. His success is reliant on pristine rhythm as he spots the edges + good fortune on balls in play and Arizona is a great fit for him. I can see him being around Nick Pivetta for some, though for me, I’d rather shoot for higher and grab the guys in Tier 8, making Monty lead Tier 9 once he returns.
Cal Quantrill (COL) – COL story, bro.
Dakota Hudson (COL) – COL story, bro.
Austin Gomber (COL) – COL story, bro.
Colin Rea (MIL) – He looks to be starting for the Brewers and maybe that’s enough to warrant a stream here and there.
Jakob Junis (MIL) – Junis could have a starting gig and recently displayed lower velocity with just a two pitch mix and only one whiff on his signature slider. Yeah.
Joe Ross (MIL) – The Brewers could be going four-man the first turn and even if Ross was here, do you really want that?
Miles Mikolas (STL) – There’s so little to chase here. You can do better.
Steven Matz (STL) – Even hitting 97+ on his sinker over the weekend, Matz still failed to earn whiffs. This isn’t it.
Tyler Alexander (TBR) – He has the fifth spot with Bradley and Baz hurting, but is he really going to start? Is it an opener? Does he just go 3/4 with Jacob Waguespack following? Does it matter?
Chris Flexen (CHW) – This ain’t the Toby you want as the White Sox are not going to Win many games this year. Meanwhile, Flexen will be climbing the mountain as he does everything possible to flirt with a 20% strikeout rate.
Nick Nastrini (CHW) – He walked five batters with zero strikeouts in his final spring outing and he may have the fifth spot in the rotation in a start against Atlanta to kick off the year. Let’s just play this one slow.
Ronel Blanco (HOU) – With Justin Verlander needing another week or two, Blanco will get some starts and after fanning 10 in his last spring outing, he’s interesting, right? Well…it was the minor league Astros lineup + he gets the Jays + @TEX in his first two starts. That’s a no from me.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) – He’s subbing in for the hurt Bryan Woo, sporting a sinker/slider/change approach. It can work, though Hancock doesn’t look fully warm for the season yet. I’d take this slow and consider him as a potential Toby.
Keaton Winn (SFG) – He’s making his spring debut on Wednesday, though he’s unlikely to be ready by opening day. If he comes close to repeating the success of his splitter, he may find his way onto The List by May.
Ryan Feltner (COL) – He actually has some intrigue with his four-seamer that should be a decent pitch upstairs, but his slider is more like a cutter that doesn’t get whiffs and there’s nothing else. Oh, and Coors n all.
Matt Waldron (SDP) – There was some consideration here as the SP #5 for the Padres, but it’s possible he pairs with Jhony Brito + his stuff speaks to a potential Toby and not much else.
Daulton Jefferies (SFG) – He could be sliding in for a start before Blake Snell is ready, but it’s against the Padres + I’m not ready to start streaming him until we see it all work.
Keaton Winn (SFG) – It seems like he could be ready to go, but a date with the Dodgers + Padres to kick off the season is a clear avoid for now.
SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES
| Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spencer StriderT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 3 | Zack Wheeler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 4 | Pablo LópezT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 5 | Luis Castillo | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 6 | George Kirby | Aces Gonna Ace Ratio Focused | - |
| 7 | Kevin Gausman | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 8 | Logan Webb | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 9 | Cole Ragans | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 10 | Tarik Skubal | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 11 | Tyler Glasnow | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 12 | Zac Gallen | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 13 | Max Fried | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus Injury Risk | - |
| 14 | Aaron Nola | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 15 | Bobby MillerT3 | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 16 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 17 | Zach Eflin | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 18 | Grayson Rodriguez | Aces Gonna Ace Team Context Effect | - |
| 19 | Freddy Peralta | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 20 | Joe MusgroveT4 | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 21 | Framber Valdez | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 22 | Joe Ryan | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | - |
| 23 | Justin Steele | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 24 | Bailey Ober | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 25 | Chris Sale | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 26 | Yu Darvish | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 27 | Michael King | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +2 |
| 28 | Logan Gilbert | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +2 |
| 29 | Shane Bieber | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +2 |
| 30 | Blake SnellT5 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 31 | Shota Imanaga | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 32 | Dylan Cease | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 33 | Jesús Luzardo | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 34 | Tanner BibeeT6 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 35 | Triston McKenzie | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 36 | Chris Bassitt | Holly Quality Starts | +2 |
| 37 | Merrill Kelly | Holly Quality Starts Team Context Effect | +2 |
| 38 | Nathan Eovaldi | Holly Quality Starts Injury Risk | +2 |
| 39 | Nick Pivetta | Holly Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 40 | Bryce MillerT7 | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 41 | Hunter Brown | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 42 | Cristian Javier | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 43 | Casey MizeT8 | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 44 | Jack Flaherty | Spice Girl Quality Starts | +10 |
| 45 | Kutter Crawford | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 46 | A.J. Puk | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 47 | DL Hall | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +6 |
| 48 | Luis Gil | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +19 |
| 49 | Ryan Pepiot | Spice Girl Team Context Effect | +10 |
| 50 | Brayan BelloT9 | Holly Quality Starts | -2 |
| 51 | Cristopher Sánchez | Holly Quality Starts | -1 |
| 52 | Tanner Houck | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 53 | Nestor Cortes | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -6 |
| 54 | Yusei Kikuchi | Holly Strikeout Upside | -13 |
| 55 | José Berríos | Holly Wins Bonus | -6 |
| 56 | Aaron Civale | Holly Team Context Effect | +6 |
| 57 | Reese Olson | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +11 |
| 58 | Carlos RodónT10 | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +6 |
| 59 | Hunter Greene | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 60 | Mitch Keller | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +19 |
| 61 | Reynaldo LópezT11 | Spice Girl Team Context Effect | -6 |
| 62 | Gavin Stone | Spice Girl Team Context Effect | -2 |
| 63 | Jared Jones | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | - |
| 64 | Trevor Rogers | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | -6 |
| 65 | Louie Varland | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | - |
| 66 | MacKenzie Gore | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +15 |
| 67 | Jordan Hicks | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +19 |
| 68 | Max Meyer | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 69 | Tyler WellsT12 | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +4 |
| 70 | Garrett Whitlock | Spice Girl Quality Starts | -14 |
| 71 | Luis Severino | Spice Girl Quality Starts | +18 |
| 72 | James Paxton | Streaming Option Team Context Effect Injury Risk | -3 |
| 73 | Michael Soroka | Streaming Option Quality Starts | -1 |
| 74 | Brandon Pfaadt | Toby Quality Starts | +1 |
| 75 | Michael Wacha | Streaming Option Quality Starts | -1 |
| 76 | Marcus Stroman | Toby Quality Starts | +1 |
| 77 | Seth Lugo | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +1 |
| 78 | Kenta MaedaT13 | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -17 |
| 79 | Ryan Weathers | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 80 | Chase Silseth | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 81 | Garrett Crochet | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | -10 |
| 82 | Reid Detmers | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 83 | Charlie Morton | Cherry Bomb Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +1 |
| 84 | JP Sears | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 85 | Kyle Harrison | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 86 | Erick FeddeT14 | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +2 |
| 87 | Sean Manaea | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 88 | Zack Littell | Streaming Option Team Context Effect | +11 |
| 89 | Chris Paddack | Streaming Option Quality Starts | -13 |
| 90 | Clarke Schmidt | Streaming Option Quality Starts | - |
| 91 | Jon Gray | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 92 | Griffin Canning | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 93 | Ryne Nelson | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | -6 |
| 94 | Bowden Francis | Streaming Option Rotation Spot Bonus | +4 |
| 95 | J.P. France | Streaming Option Quality Starts Team Context Effect | -4 |
| 96 | Frankie Montas | Streaming Option Quality Starts | -3 |
| 97 | Lance Lynn | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 98 | Logan Allen | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
| 99 | Carlos Carrasco | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
| 100 | Kyle Freeland | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
Labels Legend
I’ve updated the tags for 2024, now allowing myself to tag a player in one three groups.
Overall Label
Aces Gonna Ace
Ace Potential
Holly
Toby
Cherry Bomb
Spice Girl
Vargas Rule
Streaming Option
Bonus Stat
QS Bonus
Wins Bonus
Strikeouts Bonus
Ratios Bonus
Rotation Spot Bonus
Team Context Effect
Special Tag
Stash Option
Injury Risk
Playing Time Question
A quick legend for those unfamiliar with our odd terms at Pitcher List:
Holly = Solid ratios, constant 6 IP & a 20-25% strikeout rate
Toby = Borderline arm for your 12-teamers who has a 20% or lower strikeout rate. They barely do enough.
Cherry Bomb = A volatile starting pitcher. Usually with strikeout upside and low ratio floor.
Spice Girl = Young arms who have massive ceilings or could be off your team in a few weeks.
Vargas Rule = A pitcher we’re picking up now given he’s on a roll, but we drop once he stumbles again.
Team Context Effect = Either ranked higher or lower due to team context (Coors, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta, Cincy, etc.)
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)
Where would you be ranking Bradish & Eury P.?
I see 10-20 for Bradish. Does that still stand?
Eury P. 20-30?