2024 Prospect List: Top 100 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

The Prospect List is back for 2024! After debuting this list last season, it is back to bring you my top 100 prospects for fantasy baseball. In the article below, you will find two tables breaking up my top 100 prospects in half. Each half will feature two write-ups providing some explanation behind the ranking. In addition, four prospects who missed the list are highlighted below as players to keep your eye on.

Prospect List Rules:

• All players must have prospect eligibility.
• This list is only for prospects in the minor leagues, no major league players are included.
• Maximum of two positions listed per player
• Primarily weighted for standard 5×5 leagues, but all league types are considered.

 

Prospect List Exclusions:

Typically throughout the season, this list will be comprised of any prospect who is not currently in the major leagues. That puts the first edition in a bit of a sticky situation. Some notable prospects that would have been inside of the top 100 but are not included in this list are: Colton Cowser, Jasson Domínguez, Evan Carter, Masyn Winn, Noelvi Marte, Austin Wells, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Mason Miller.

Entering the 2024 season, I consider the names above to be major league players and will adjust accordingly for the second version of this article.

 

Top 50 Prospect Notes

 

Sterlin Thompson, #23 Colorado Rockies

 

Thompson’s name has started to creep up prospect lists, but 23rd overall is the highest I know of. His ranking is ambitious, but this is calling my shot. My love for Thompson has grown the more research I have done. Since being drafted by Colorado 31st overall back in 2022, Thompson has done nothing but hit. Through his first two professional seasons, he owns a 129 wRC+ with a .296/.371/.476 slash line. The Rockies have had a mold when drafting hitters in recent years. Big-bodied batters with significant offensive projection. Standing at 6’4″, Thompson certainly fits that mold.

What stands out and makes me so excited to watch him in 2024, is the adjustments he made from 2022 to 2023. In his small 26-game sample from 2022, Thompson showed a propensity to chase breaking balls as well as serious concerns surrounding his future game-power. He failed to get much launch on the ball which was one of the bigger concerns for him coming out of Florida. Thompson settled in nicely in 2023 and saw both his swinging strike and strikeout rates come down significantly. An underserved .264 BABIP deflated his slash line in Double-A, but Thompson bounced back in the AFL slashing an impressive .338/.460/.475 in 21 games. Most notably, Thompson showed off a new ability to get more launch on the ball. His fly ball rate increased significantly in 2023 which should help turn more of his raw power into game power.

You can kiss that one goodbye! Sterlin Thompson hits his second home run of the year for the Goats pic.twitter.com/KiC5ZYJgl3

— Hartford Yard Goats (@GoYardGoats) August 19, 2023

Thompson’s increased game power is a huge boost to an already relatively safe prospect. With improved contact metrics, Thompson’s hit tool profiles to be a plus tool. His line-drive-oriented swing produces plenty of line drives which should turn him into a doubles-monster at Coors Field. He has sneaky speed and projects to steal 10-15 bases at the major league level. Right now, 20 home runs seems like a safe projection for Thompson, but there is even more upside to be found. If he can continue tapping into this, we could see a .280 with 30 homers and 15 steals type player. He is one of the more underrated prospects in baseball and somebody that deserves more recognition. Ranking Thompson’s ranking is aggressive, but belief in the talent combined with the future home park projection carries Thompson into the top 25.

 

James Triantos, #25 Chicago Cubs

 

Triantos ranked in the top half of the 2023 versions of the prospect list but was never specifically highlighted in the article. Now, after a strong Arizona Fall League, he has become more popular in the dynasty community. He remains inside of the top 25 prospects in all of baseball and dynasty managers should expect big things in 2024.

What makes Triantos such an attractive fantasy baseball asset? Let’s start with his hit tool. Triantos makes contact at a well above-average rate showing the ability to effectively use all fields. He drives the ball into the gaps and is more than willing to take pitches the other way. He has excellent pitch recognition and control of the bat. His plate discipline has been viewed as suspect with low walk rates throughout his professional career, but he showed signs of improvement in the Arizona Fall League. In 99 plate appearances, Triantos maintained a low strikeout rate but walked 12.2% of the way. This in line with how Triantos finished the regular season as he walked 10.4% of the time from August 9th forward.

The hit tool is Triantos’ carrying tool, but what makes many so excited is the development of his power. Standing at 6’1″ Triantos has excellent bat control and can drive pitches to all fields, but has yet to top more than seven home runs in any professional season. During the Arizona Fall League, Triantos finally showed signs of unlocking more game power. He hit three home runs in just 99 plate appearances which would put him on pace for 18 over a full 600 PA season. Triantos already has the hit tool and speed to be a valuable fantasy asset. The game power is coming making now the last chance fantasy managers have to buy in.

 

A Bonus Breakdown: Tyler Locklear, #49 Seattle Mariners

 

Those of you who have followed along know that it is typically two breakdowns from each half of the top 50 but for the first article, I figured, why not go crazy? Locklear feels like one of the most underrated prospects in baseball. After a scorching hot start to 2023 had him rising up prospect lists, injuries forced him to miss two months in the middle of the season. This along with an underwhelming finish in Double-A has resulted in the dynasty community going ice cold on Locklear.

Now is the perfect time to buy low. Locklear is a well-rounded player who profiles to be a strong fantasy contributor. His power is an easy plus tool. He controls the barrel well and knows how to tap into his pull-side power to increase his game power. While FanGraphs notes that Locklear struggles at times with high heat, the other areas of his hit tool are fun to watch. Locklear is a line drive machine depositing balls into the gaps and running sustainably high BABIPs. His strong understanding of the strike zone helps not only his power but his hit tool as well getting him more pitches to hit. Last year, he was one of five batters 22 or younger with 300+ PA that met the following criteria:

• ISO>.200, K%<21, BB%>11, SB>10

The other five batters? Jordan Lawlar, Adael Amador, Samuel Basallo, and Tyler Black

Through his first 517 professional plate appearances, Locklear owns a 137 wRC+. He lands just inside the top 50 on the debut edition of the 2024 prospect list. Seattle lacks depth at first base providing Locklear the Go get him now before it is too late.

 

 

Back-Half Top 100 Prospect Notes

 

Trey Sweeney, #64 Los Angeles Dodgers

 

Trey Sweeney is that one prospect that I just cannot quit. After remaining high in my prospect rankings throughout the 2023 season, Sweeney falls a bit to 64th but is still much higher than many other publications. So, what is there to like about Sweeney? If you have ever watched him play you would walk away thinking “Man, he looks like a ball-player”. His swing is pretty from the left-hand side with good launch and quick hands. Defensively, he might not be able to stick at shortstop, but his instincts are better than people give him credit for. He has at least average speed that plays up thanks to his baseball IQ and overall athleticism. At face value, there is plenty to like.

Diving into the stats a little bit, it is curious as to why Sweeney has never had that true breakout season. He owns a career 118 wRC+ which is nothing to scoff at, but he has failed to ever live up to the expectations of a first-round pick. Perhaps the most difficult thing to decipher is why Sweeney has been unable to post high batting averages. He is a career .248 hitter despite strong contact rates and excellent line drive rates. His line drive percentages combined with his speed should result in BABIPs that are above league average. However, Sweeney has never seen his BABIP reach .300. There is more upside here than people realize.

From a power perspective, Sweeney gets plenty of launch on the ball and utilizes his pull-side well. He is not ever going to be a threat for 30 home runs, but the skills are there to settle into the 20-25 range. He showed flashes of finding more game power last season hitting nine home runs in one month from May 30th to June 29th. The talent is there, this is just about Sweeney putting it all together. The Dodgers are known for getting the most out of their young players and hopefully, that is what they can do for Sweeney who was acquired from the Yankees this past off-season. He remains a top prospect for me and a prospect I expect to finally break out in 2024.

 

Termarr Johnson, #95 Pittsburgh Pirates

 

One of the bigger surprises from the back half is how low Temarr Johnson slid. Johnson is universally viewed as one of the game’s top second-base prospects but he falls to 95th on this list ranking as just the eighth-best second-base prospect. Still just 19 years old, the Pirates first-round pick from 2022 still has plenty of potential. He has tremendous bat speed and his plate discipline is already some of the best in baseball. Johnson owns a career walk rate of 21.5% and walked 21.9% of the time last year. He simply does not chase which gives him significant value in OBP and points leagues. When he connects, it is fun to watch. Just take a look at this home run he hit the other week:

Termarr Johnson goes yard for the @Pirates.

That's the first-ever Grapefruit League hit for MLB's No. 44 prospect. pic.twitter.com/NfgyKJvNXC

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) February 26, 2024

Swings like this are what push Johnson up rankings despite an underwhelming fantasy profile. Outside of OBP leagues, Johnson does not possess many of the tools fantasy managers prioritize. He has not shown a strong desire to run much, and his speed only profiles to get worse as he continues to fill out his frame. He stole 10 bases in 105 games last season and does not profile to ever steal much more than 10-15 across a full Major League season. Speed is critical for a second baseman’s fantasy value casting concern over Johnson’s. Johnson has also struggled to hit for average in his professional career. His steady line drive rate results in solid BABIPs, but an overly patient approach with swing-and-miss issues has led to high strikeout rates holding down his batting average.

His best tool at this point is his raw power. As mentioned before, Johnson’s bat speed and natural feel for pulling the baseball help him tap into more pop than his 5’8″ frame suggests there is. The issue with his power is that he does not hit enough fly balls to consistently turn his raw power into game power. He also profiles to play his future home games in PNC Park which suppresses power to left-handed hitters. Johnson lands inside the top 100 thanks to his draft pedigree and value in specific formats such as points and OBP leagues. Outside of that, there are more questions than answers for a prospect who feels overrated by much of the fantasy community.

 

One More Bonus: Cristian Mena, #100 Arizona D-Backs

 

One of the more surprising trades of this past offseason was when the White Sox traded away Cristian Mena to the D-Backs for Dominic Fletcher. For Arizona, the trade made perfect sense. Deal away from their surplus of fringe outfielders for a chance to develop a starting pitcher to fortify their rotation. For Chicago, I cannot wrap my head around it. Anyway, I digress. The White Sox were aggressive with Mena after signing him back in 2019. Despite only turning 21 in December, Mena made it all the way to Triple-A in 2023. Although his stat line was disappointing last season, there is still plenty to like from a pitcher who is still early in his development process. Dynasty managers forget that Mena was over four years younger than the average player in Double-A and almost seven years younger than the average player in Triple-A last season.

Mena’s arsenal is headlined by a big-breaking curveball. Mena controls the pitch well and is more than willing to throw the pitch in any count. His changeup is an effective pitch against lefties and his slider is still a work in progress but has shown flashes of turning into a plus pitch. Mena was on the bubble for making this list but notable news out of spring training pushed him up just enough. According to reports, Mena’s fastball is sitting 94-95 on the gun at camp which is a boost from the 92 mph he averaged last season. Increased fastball velocity could take Mena’s game to the next level and has me buying in for 2024.

 

Prospect List Part 2

 

Prospects That Just Missed

 

Christian Scott, New York Mets

 

Many people in the dynasty industry are wondering if the Christian Scott breakout is legit. The answer from scouts and many close to the Mets is a resounding yes. During his time in college, Scott made just five starts for the Gators who primarily used him out of the pen. The Mets took Scott in the fifth round that year without much fanfare attached. He pitched primarily in a relief role each of his first two seasons before transitioning into the rotation full-time last season. The results were superb as Scott posted a 2.57 ERA across three different levels. His fastball showed a significant velocity bump sitting in the upper 90s with a slider that he picked up by watching Max Scherzer. His changeup profiles close to average, but gives him another pitch to attack left-handed batters.

After the success Scott found in 2023, many outlets have Scott ranked inside of their top-100 prospects. So why not here? Scott has yet to prove he is capable of handling a starter’s rotation. Once a bullpen arm, Scott has never thrown more than 87.2 innings pitched in any professional season. Sustaining success for 140+ innings is a lot different than finding success for 70-90 innings. 25 in June, Scott needs to prove in 2024 that his stuff will be just as effective in inning 115 as it was for the duration of last season. With plus command and plus stuff, this is the last hurdle for Scott to clear.

 

Cole Carrigg, Colorado Rockies

 

One of the more interesting names from this past year’s draft is Cole Carrigg. Carrigg is not generating much attention from the dynasty community despite dominating in his first taste of professional action. Standing at 6’3″, Carrigg has plenty of power projection from both sides of the plate. He hit five home runs and stole 13 bases in just 36 games last season. Turning his raw power into game power was the biggest hurdle for Carrigg coming out of college and he is already showing flashes of improvement in that area. If he continues to show growth in this area this season, he could fly up prospect boards.

What makes Carrigg even more intriguing is his defensive athleticism. Carrigg has shown the ability to play all over the diamond spending time at shortstop, catcher, and outfield. He is a plus runner with good defensive instincts which makes landing at all three spots realistic. Shortstop is the most far-fetched of the three positions while catcher could take his fantasy value to new levels. He could catch early in his career before shifting to the outfield much like Daulton Varsho did. We all know how Varsho’s fantasy value was inflated with catcher eligibility which could be exactly what happens to Carrigg. Plus offensive tools at a position as thin as catcher makes Carrigg a player dynasty managers need to keep a close eye on in 2024.

 

Deep Prospects to Note

 

Charlee Soto, Minnesota Twins

 

The Twins selected Soto with the 34th overall pick in the 2023 draft. Despite being a high-round selection, Soto is not receiving the recognition he deserves in the dynasty community. Standing at 6’3″, Soto is extremely athletic on the mound. Not only does he field his position well, but he has the stuff to rise quickly through the Twins’ system. Already touching the upper-90s at just 18 years old, Soto could continue to add velocity as he adds more strength. His four-seamer is already a plus offering with solid command and run while his breaking pitches could take him to the next level. His slider is effective against righties while the split-change works well and could become a plus offering in the future. Soto is a name to keep an eye on in 2024.

 

Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves

 

Schewellenbach does not have the prototypical up-and-comer profile. He turns 24 in May and has yet to reach Double-A. Schwellenbach has thrown just 55.1 professional innings and his low strikeout rates have limited his appeal to the dynasty community. All of that makes now the perfect time to buy into Schwellenbach. Not only is he in an organization that dynasty managers trust as much as any other, but he has the stuff that should allow his strikeout rate to continue climbing. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, Schwellenbach has been throwing heat. He routinely sits around 97 with his four-seam fastball and has excellent feel for a two-plane slider that generates plenty of whiffs. He has plus-plus control and command which allows him to limit hard contact and avoid free-passes.

Schwellenbach has everything you want in a pitching prospect, he is just a bit older than many dynasty managers want. That makes now the perfect opportunity to acquire him in dynasty. The Braves have had pitchers come out of nowhere before and Schwellenbach could be next.

 

Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)