Welcome back to our Expected SP Schedules series!
Throughout the season, the Expected SP Schedules article will provide insight regarding each starting pitcher’s upcoming matchups. Who has a two-start week? Who is facing a favorable lineup? Who is struggling but might be due for a turnaround? Among other content at Pitcher List, this article is meant to help guide fantasy baseball managers through the handling of their rotations. Readers should weigh pitchers’ next two predicted starts more heavily than the third and fourth, as those are more likely to change. This week’s title is a shoutout to the entire Cardinals rotation, which allowed just two earned runs in their last turn through, highlighted by an Erick Fedde shutout against the Nationals on Friday.
Remember the handy glossary for this article:
- (OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
- (DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
- ??? represents an unclear rotational spot, and the notes will explain the options.
And finally, let’s look at our PLV-based offensive rankings, which incorporate our Process+ metric to project future offensive performance. There has been a lot of movement since the prior update, which was on April 21. Detroit has vaulted all the way from a “Poor” grade to the “Top” tier. While the Tigers do rank firmly in the top 10 in terms of wRC+, they also have one of the highest BABIPs of any team. I think Detroit is a tougher matchup, but probably not a top-tier one, especially in Comerica Park, which is pretty pitcher-friendly. Pittsburgh has also jumped from “Weak” to “Solid” despite being close to the bottom of the league in wRC+. Nick has shared on his various podcasts that he is not fully buying this rating, and I am inclined to agree. I might not target the Pirates as aggressively as teams in the “Poor” tier, but I won’t be avoiding them either.
Some other big jumps include Baltimore (“Top” to “Average”), St. Louis (“Average” to “Poor”), and Tampa Bay (“Poor” to “Average”). As the season goes on, we will also be able to get a better sense of which lineups are much better against pitchers of one-handedness than the other. For example, Baltimore and Atlanta have both been miserable against lefties (sub-70 wRC+) but above-average against righties.
- Zach Eflin returned from the IL on Sunday, which should be a shot in the arm for this struggling unit. Their next nine games are all pretty soft matchups. Kyle Gibson (13.11 ERA, 4.7% K-BB%) has the easiest upcoming schedule, but I don’t know if I would trust him in any of them except against the White Sox. Tomoyuki Sugano (4-2, 2.72 ERA) is on a roll and starting to show more strikeout stuff (17 Ks in his last 18.1 IP).
- This unit looks a lot different than it did on Opening Day, as Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito have returned from injury, and Hunter Dobbins (22.2 IP, 2.78 ERA) has replaced an injured Walker Buehler. Dobbins has been good enough to make a case to stay in the rotation, so it will be interesting to see what happens with Buehler. He is targeting a return during the Mets series. Kutter Crawford and Richard Fitts appear close to rehab assignments but don’t figure into the short-term picture.
- Carlos Carrasco was designated for assignment last week, and it’s not immediately clear who will replace him moving forward. Ryan Yarbrough and Allan Winans, who has thrown 19 scoreless innings in AAA with a 28.4% K-BB%, are the top candidates. Yarbrough started Sunday’s game, and Winans started Sunday in AAA, so their schedules are aligned. Because the Yankees have four off days in the next three weeks, they don’t actually need a consistent fifth starter. As a result, I project that they will only use four starters this week before inserting a fifth starter next week.
Rays’ Expected Starters
- Tampa’s rotation has made it through a difficult stretch intact, and they will mostly see average matchups the next four turns, including a lot of the Astros and Blue Jays. Shane Baz (4.93 ERA) got off to a fantastic start but seems to have run into a wall (13 ER in his last 9 IP). He will get two starts this week to try to get back on track.
- In their continued search for a fifth starter, Toronto has turned to journeyman José Ureña. Max Scherzer continues to work his way back from a thumb issue and has faced hitters, but he hasn’t started a rehab assignment. We’ve seen quite a bit of regression recently from Chris Bassitt, who has allowed three or more runs in each of his last four starts but maintains a solid line (3-2, 3.35 ERA, 1.23 WHIP). There are no super easy matchups coming up for the Blue Jays, but at least they will be spending a lot of time at home.
- No changes here. Shane Smith (43.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 13% K-BB%) continues to perform, but he has some stiff tests on the horizon. For those of you who like to live dangerously, Jonathan Cannon (4.09 ERA) gets two starts this week, and Davis Martin (4.01 ERA) gets two next week. I am not buying the recent strong outings from Sean Burke, who has a K-BB% under 5%.
- I don’t hate the Ben Lively (2-2, 3.46 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) two-start this week in deeper wins leagues, as neither matchup is all that tough. Things will get dicey soon, though, as series with the Tigers, Dodgers, and Yankees loom. Unfortunately for Tanner Bibee and Luis L. Ortiz, they are lined up to face all three.
- This staff was recently bludgeoned by the Dodgers. Hopefully, they do not suffer the same fate against the Cubs, whom they will face six times in the next nine games. Ryan Weathers will be thrown right into the fire, with two straight matchups against them. I am guessing that the Marlins will option Valente Bellozo (3.50 ERA, 5.3% K-BB%) even though he has been far from their worst starter. They have no need for a six-man with all these upcoming off days.
- Not much to report here, as Philly’s rotation is back at full strength. Coors Field shouldn’t be much of an obstacle.
