Welcome back to our Expected SP Schedules series!
Throughout the season, the Expected SP Schedules article will provide insight regarding each starting pitcher’s upcoming matchups. Who has a two-start week? Who is facing a favorable lineup? Who is struggling but might be due for a turnaround? Among other content at Pitcher List, this article is meant to help guide fantasy baseball managers through the handling of their rotations. Readers should weigh pitchers’ next two predicted starts more heavily than the third and fourth, as those are more likely to change. This week’s title references the suddenly-heating-up trade market, as Kyle Harrison and Aaron Civale were both among those traded unexpectedly in the last week. No, they’re not aces, and they probably never will be… but it’s just a title, right? Cut me slack.
Remember the handy glossary for this article:
- (OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
- (DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
- ??? represents an unclear rotational spot, and the notes will explain the options.
And finally, let’s look at our PLV-based offensive rankings, which incorporate our Process+ metric to project future offensive performance. These rankings, which are in alphabetical order by tier and were last updated on June 2, continue to reflect the offensive skills that teams have showed lately rather than over the course of the entire season. Trending up in this update are the Angels (“Solid” to “Top”), Orioles (“Average” to “Solid”), Royals (“Average” to “Solid” on the road, and “Poor” to “Weak” at home), Rangers (“Average” to “Solid”), Pirates (“Weak” to “Average”), Guardians and Giants (“Poor” to “Weak”). It’s surprising to see the Angels in the first tier, given their league-leading 29% strikeout rate, but the model clearly believes in their potential with a healthy Mike Trout.
Trending in the wrong direction are the Blue Jays (down to “Solid” after several weeks in the top tier), Rays and Phillies (“Solid” to “Average”), Padres (“Solid” to “Weak”), the Rockies at home (“Average” to “Weak”), and the Red Sox, Brewers, and Cardinals (“Weak” to “Poor”). The most notable of these drops would seem to be the Phillies and Padres, with their big-budget lineups and quality records, but the odds aren’t in their favor at the moment.
AL East
- An injury to Cade Povich opened the door for Trevor Rogers, who is expected to start Wednesday in Tampa. Rogers was impressive in his last spot start three weeks ago in Boston, but his season-long numbers in Triple-A don’t support a resurgence from the former Marlin. The O’s have a tough path forward with multiple matchups against the Rays, Yankees and Rangers coming up, and none of these arms are really worth chasing at the moment.
- Despite all the chaos of Sunday night’s trade, the Red Sox are currently riding a six-game winning streak, and for the time being at least, their rotation is intact. Lucas Giolito returned to form in excellent fashion on Monday, striking out 10 Mariners in Seattle, giving his fantasy managers some confidence heading into his next turn against the Giants this weekend. It remains to be seen when Kyle Harrison will get his first chance in this rotation, but if Craig Breslow’s recent quotes are to be taken seriously, it won’t be long.
- While the Yankees did ultimately get swept by their rivals over the weekend, Max Fried did his part with another show-stopping performance. The upcoming schedule is pretty manageable, with the Angels’ new PLV ranking notwithstanding. Will Warren caps off a nice two-start week against the Orioles. Ryan Yarbrough has failed to complete five innings in two straight starts since we hyped him up, but he still provides a great win chance as a streamer, if nothing else.
- Ryan Pepiot has been a reliable arm all season, but in the month of June, he has taken it to another level. His 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K performance on Monday was his third straight start with 8+ strikeouts, and his seventh quality start in eight games. The upcoming schedule is nothing to be scared of either, with the Tigers, Orioles again, and the A’s at home. The Rays currently sit a game ahead of the Blue Jays for the top Wild Card spot in the AL, thanks in no small part to the consistency of this unit.
- Bowden Francis was moved to the IL on Tuesday, opening another hole in a porous Blue Jays’ staff that is still waiting on Max Scherzer’s return. Eric Lauer is starting on Wednesday, and Spencer Turnbull is expected to operate in the bulk role on Friday against the White Sox. Turnbull threw 51 pitches in his second appearance of the season on Sunday, so he may be able to cover three to four innings if needed. For his part, Scherzer takes the hill for his second rehab start on Wednesday, and he could be available as soon as next week.
AL Central
- Aaron Civale’s desire for a trade landed him on the South Side, joining Adrian Houser as veterans in a rotation that was sorely in need of some experience. Houser had a three-game streak of quality starts that ended on Friday, and Civale’s White Sox debut amounted to five uninspiring innings in Sunday’s loss. Nothing much to see here.
- After dominating the Yankees for 5.2 innings two weeks ago, Luis L. Ortiz was unable to take advantage of favorable opportunities against the Reds and Mariners, disappointing anyone who went for that two-start week (hi, it’s me, someone who regrets their waiver choices). He gets another chance to rack up some strikeouts in Sacramento this weekend, but at what cost? I ask you, AT WHAT COST?
- Eury Pérez disappointed in his second start of the season Sunday, walking three batters in four innings and failing to record a strikeout. He clear doesn’t have the hang of his full arsenal yet, and with Atlanta and Arizona on deck, we may have to wait a bit longer to see it. Meanwhile Adam Mazur makes his Marlins debut against the Phillies on Wednesday, replacing the injured Ryan Weathers, and it’s worth keeping an eye on since the schedule opens up a bit after this week. It looks like it’ll be another bullpen game on Friday, with Janson Junk getting an opportunity to replicate his success against the Nationals.
NL West
