Whether it’s early in the season, the middle of July, or late in the year, it’s always good to know where you stand in your Roto league.
Of course, perusing your league’s standings accomplishes that fairly quickly. However, numbers can often be misleading. Is your team producing at the level it should be as a league leader compared to the vast majority of other Roto leagues?
Are there underperforming players on your team, or available via waivers each week that could help you significantly in specific, or multiple, categories moving forward? This column aims to, and will, answer all those questions on a weekly basis, regardless of league size.
Essentially, it’s an almanac for Roto leagues and NFBC or TGFBI leagues, showing you not only the watermarks your team should be hitting category-wise to be truly elite but also the specific players that will help you get there. What’s more, it’ll also cover the top performers in each category, as well as some under-the-radar options for each metric as well.
Notes
A couple of quick notes before we begin. For metrics like ERA, WHIP, batting average, and on-base percentage, only qualified or close to qualified pitchers and hitters (respectively) were considered, especially at this time of year with smaller sample sizes running rampant.
Additionally, all rostered rate numbers are via FantasyPros as of Monday. Furthermore, in part due to NFBC leagues, all stats (as well as the rostered data) are via the previous week’s Sunday.
All the data in terms of Roto league production is from last year’s numbers.
Where You Should Be Producing In Each Category
Below is data for both 15-team and 12-team Roto leagues from last season and the average statistical totals that each placed team finished with. This is for the entirety of a season. Basically, if you want to do well in these two formats, these are the season-long watermarks to shoot for.
There’s also SGP data for both 15-team and 12-team formats.
Before we get any further, a massive thank you to Pitcher List Director of Data Analytics and Research Kyle Bland for getting a hold of the data.
And now, without further ado, the 15-team data, which comes from 2023 TGFBI leagues:
15-Team Leagues
(Quick reminder, the far left-hand column is where the team finished in the standings.)
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And here’s the 15-team, SGP data:
12-Team Leagues
And now for the 12-team, SGP data:
Category Power Rankings
Batting Average (AVG)
Leaders
Of Note: Steven Kwan.
Similar to Luis Rengifo last week, Kwan jumps to the top of the leaderboard here after accumulating the number of plate appearances needed to qualify.
The 26-year-old has enjoyed a career year, hitting .364 with a .419 on-base percentage (minor spoilers, but you’ll be seeing him in the on-base percentage leaderboard as well) with nine home runs and four stolen bases through his first 278 plate appearances, logging a walk rate (7.6%) nearly on line with his strikeout rate (8.3%).
Kwan has always logged strong plate discipline and contact metrics. As a rookie in 2022, he walked more often (9.7%) than he struck out (9.4%) in a 638 plate appearance sample size. He’s also hit .298 and .268 in his first two Major League seasons.
The big change for his fantasy upside this year has been the power production. Kwan’s already at a career-best nine home runs as we approach the end of the first half. And while there’s some real unsustainability here given that the outfielder has just five barrels and a 2.2% barrel rate, if he can get anywhere near 15 home runs by the end of the season, he could finish among the top 50 or 40 fantasy players overall.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Freddy Fermin.
Last year, Fermin enjoyed a breakout season in a limited sample size, batting .281 with a .321 on-base percentage and nine home runs in 235 plate appearances for the Royals.
Fermin is once again producing when in the lineup for Kansas City, batting .304 with a .356 on-base percentage and four home runs in 177 plate appearances. However, with Salvador Perez starting at catcher, the 29-year-old doesn’t have the fantasy ceiling of some starting options around the league. Still, with Kansas City giving Perez more starts at first base and designated hitter, Fermin is well worth an add in slightly deeper two-catcher leagues and standard leagues with 14 or more teams.
Essentially, given his workload so far, he has both a higher fantasy floor and ceiling than most backup catchers in the league.
On-Base Percentage (OBP)
Leaders
Of Note: Gunnar Henderson.
Much has, deservedly so, been written about Gunnar Henderson’s breakout season. The infielder has gone from a good fantasy option last season, to a historically elite one this year, batting .293 with a .384 on-base percentage, 27 home runs, and 14 stolen bases in his first 406 plate appearances in 2024.
Hitting leadoff for a strong Orioles lineup only raises his fantasy ceiling even more. With Mookie Betts injured, Henderson might be the best fantasy player currently with any kind of infield eligibility.
But it’s the home runs and stolen bases that are worth keying in on here.
The historic bit.
If Henderson continues at this rate, he’ll have a shot at finishing the season with 40 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
Here are the players who’ve reached at least each of those statistical benchmarks this century in a single season: Ronald Acuña Jr., Alfonso Soriano, Christian Yelich, and Ryan Braun.
That’s it.
It’s only happened five times, with Acuna Jr. accomplishing the feat twice.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Ben Rortvedt.
Rortvedt has quietly established himself as both the Rays’ best catcher this season, as well as one of the better on-base percentage options for fantasy managers in the sport.
Of course, the sample size isn’t the largest, but it isn’t tiny either. Through his first 188 plate appearances, Rortvedt is batting .276 with a .372 on-base percentage, three home runs, and a stolen base. He’s walking 12.2% of the time with a 25.5% strikeout rate.
With just a 5.2% barrel rate and a 34.8% hard-hit rate, the backstop isn’t going to contribute as much power as some other above-average fantasy options where on-base percentage is concerned (like Spencer Horwitz and LaMonte Wade Jr.) but given the position he plays, Rortvedt has plenty of fantasy potential.
He makes for an ideal addition for fantasy managers with a home run and RBI-heavy lineup in leagues where on-base percentage is part of the scoring.
Home Runs (HR)
Leaders
Of Note: Anthony Santander.
Santander, like Henderson, has seen his fantasy ceiling rise due to the strength of the Orioles’ lineup around him.
More of a specialist in one or two fantasy categories than an above-average contributor across the board, Santander is hitting .235 on the season with a .302 on-base percentage and a 125 wRC+ through his first 358 plate appearances.
Still, in the categories he’s provided quality production in, Santander has been excellent, accumulating 23 home runs, 48 RBI, and 57 runs scored. As long as he’s hitting in the top half of Baltimore’s lineup, he’s a surefire starter in all fantasy formats.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Mitch Garver.
Garver’s first season in Seattle with the Mariners hasn’t exactly played out in an ideal manner. At least where his stat line is concerned.
Overall, the veteran hit .179 with a .294 on-base percentage and 12 home runs in his first 296 plate appearances with his new team. The 12 home runs and a 12.8% walk rate are solid enough, and a .220 BABIP points to some positive regression on the horizon, but it’s been an unideal start for the slugger.
Still, he’s been better as of late, batting .225 with a .311 on-base percentage, a .359 wOBA, and four home runs in his last 45 plate appearances. It remains to be seen if Garver’s average and on-base percentage will get back to what they were last season for Texas, at .270 and .370 respectively. Still, as long as his power continues at this rate, the catcher should be rostered in far more fantasy leagues.
The overall stat line has something to do with that, but don’t let it deter you from adding Garver if you need reinforcements at catcher. Simply put, it’s hard to find a catcher with this kind of fantasy upside on waivers, at this time (or any time) in the season.
Runs Scored (R)
Leaders
Of Note: William Contreras.
Contreras has cooled off a bit after such an excellent start, hitting just .246 with a .289 on-base percentage, an 81 wRC+, a pair of home runs, and a stolen base in 142 plate appearances. He’s also logged a 7.2% barrel rate and a 39.6% hard-hit rate in that span.
While it hasn’t been the best run of form after a start that had the catcher on pace for a potentially historic season, the Brewers have kept Contreras entrenched in the second spot in the order. It’s good news. Maybe not as good as if Contreras suddenly started hitting as he did in March, April, and May, but should it continue, it’ll provide the catcher with plenty of RBI and run-scoring opportunities until his overall production bounces back.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Sal Frelick.
Sticking in Milwaukee, Sal Frelick has carved out a regular role and some quality fantasy production this season by, simply put, making a ton of contact.
Sporting an elite whiff rate so far, Frelick is also striking out just 17.4% of the time. All told he’s batting .262 with a .338 on-base percentage, a pair of home runs, and 12 stolen bases. He’s collected just two home runs, three barrels, and a 1.4% barrel rate, so more power production probably isn’t coming in droves.
Still, his regular place in the Brewers lineup vaults Frelick’s fantasy ceiling above those of fellow high-average, low-power stolen base threats like Jacob Young, Jake McCarthy, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Dairon Blanco.
RBI
Leaders
Of Note: Josh Naylor.
It’s early to mid-July and Josh Naylor has already topped his career-best for home runs.
Generally speaking, in these types of situations, the players didn’t have too much in the way of home run production prior to the season, but that wasn’t exactly the case with Naylor, who hit 37 combined home runs in 2022 and 2023, including 20 in the first year of that two-run stretch.
The slugger has become one of the best at his position in the league, ranking in the 70th percentile or better league-wide in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and strikeout rate. If anything, with a .236 BABIP, Naylor should be even better moving forward.
Now might be an ideal time to start working out a trade for the Guardians first baseman.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Andrew Vaughn.
One of the White Sox’s better performers who seems unlikely to be traded, although that’s all entirely speculative on my part, don’t let Andrew Vaughn’s season-long numbers fool you.
Sure, he has a 95 wRC+ for the season and is batting .242 with a .299 on-base percentage in his first 348 plate appearances, but the slugger has been much better as of late, vaulting him from “must-add” territory to “potential league winner” territory if he can sustain this. Yes, that rarefied air.
Since the start of June, Vaughn is batting .316 with a .359 on-base percentage, seven home runs, a .222 ISO, a 150 wRC+, a 12.8% barrel rate, and a 47.9% hard-hit rate.
Run, don’t walk, to add Vaughn.
Stolen Bases (SB)
Leaders
Of Note: Maikel Garcia.
Somewhat similar to Contreras, Garcia has seen his surface-level numbers taper off a bit after such a quality start.
Garcia hit .268 with a .314 on-base percentage, five home runs, and 13 stolen bases in 260 plate appearances through the end of May, contributing a 44.2% hard-hit rate in the process.
Since then, the infielder is batting .157 with a .225 on-base percentage, one home run, and eight stolen bases. The consistent stolen bases have been a positive. And like Contreras, Garcia’s team continues to hit him near the top of the order more often than not.
During that span, 27 of Garcia’s 31 starts have come as Kansas City’s leadoff hitter. As long as that trend continues, he’s worth keeping on fantasy rosters. However, it’s something to monitor moving forward. If the Royals drop him down to the bottom third of the order, it’d be hard to justify rostering him outside of deeper leagues, even with the stolen bases.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Zach Neto.
A deep league waiver wire option of note last month, Neto provides uncommon power and stolen base upside for a player with such a low rostered rate.
His fantasy ceiling will only improve if he continues to hit further up the Angels lineup, whether that’s due to the team trading away veterans this month or not.
Pitchers
Strikeouts (K)
Leaders
Of Note: Freddy Peralta.
Peralta’s ERA is up slightly this season, rising from 3.86 in 165.2 innings last season to 3.95 in his first 98 innings this year. The good news is that his FIP has actually dropped, falling from 3.85 in 2023 to 3.71 so far in 2024.
What’s more, Peralta remains one of the league’s best at missing bats, with a 30.3% strikeout rate and a 33.1% whiff rate.
All told, in starts where he’s reached the five-inning mark (something that Peralta has done in 15 of his 18 outings this year), the hurler has failed to strike out at least seven batters just four times.
If someone in your league is slightly concerned about Peralta’s ERA, now’s the time to work out a trade. Because the strikeout ability is elite.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Aaron Civale.
Now a member of the Milwaukee Brewers after a mid-season trade from the Tampa Bay Rays, Civale had a mixed bag of a first start for the National League Central club.
The veteran was tagged for five hits, four earned runs, three walks, and a trio of home runs in five innings. He also struck out eight batters while generating a 10.8% swinging strike percentage.
That it was on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers against such a good lineup makes it a bit more palatable. Still, the home runs, particularly at home, will be worth watching here.
Civale is allowing a career-high 1.86 home runs per nine innings – it was 1.66 before the trade, which also would’ve been a career-high – and he’ll now play half of his games in a ballpark with the fifth-highest park factor for home runs in the last three years, per Statcast.
ERA
Leaders
Of Note: Reynaldo López.
One of a number of relievers making the switch to the rotation this season, Lopez has been the best of the bunch so far.
He’s pitched to a 1.71 ERA and a 3.11 FIP in 89.2 innings for Atlanta, striking out 93 batters compared to 34 walks and six home runs allowed. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he’s rattled off seven pitcher wins in 16 starts with the support of one of the league’s best lineups.
There’s perhaps a bit of regression coming, with the difference between the ERA and FIP serving as the most glaring number, and a .269 BABIP potentially waiting to rear its head by inflating just a bit.
If you can trade Lopez for a pitcher with slightly better underlying metrics, it might be worth a look. Otherwise, start him with confidence for the rest of the season.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: José Buttó.
Butto showed promise as a starter earlier in the year, pitching to a 3.08 ERA and a 4.17 FIP in seven starts spanning 38 innings for the Mets. He also logged 38 strikeouts compared to 21 walks during that span.
Now working as a reliever, Butto logged a pitcher win in each of his first two relief outings, recording six outs and five outs respectively in the two appearances.
With Reed Garrett landing on the injured list, Butto is certainly someone to watch moving forward in terms of potential high-leverage opportunities, particularly if Edwin Diaz goes through another down stretch.
Wins (W)
Leaders
Of Note: Carlos Rodón.
Rodon turned in an encouraging start to the season, posting a 2.93 ERA and a 4.12 FIP in his first 80 innings. Couple all that with nine pitcher wins in 14 starts and you have the recipe for plenty of fantasy success.
Then Rodon made four more starts and, well, the results weren’t pretty.
The veteran allowed 24 runs, 23 earned runs, eight walks, and seven home runs in 19 innings over the course of his next four starts. With that gap in his initial ERA and FIP, there was always going to be some regression at some point from an ERA standpoint, but no one was expecting something like that stretch.
The silver linings, however, are twofold here for fantasy managers with Rodon on their rosters. For one, that stretch’s last start was a 5.1-inning outing against the Reds in which the left-hander struck out eight and allowed three hits, three earned runs, two home runs, and two walks. That start, at least, is a step in the right direction.
There are also those aforementioned pitcher wins.
Despite the recent unideal stretch, the pitcher wins might give Rodon enough fantasy trade value to trade him for a more effective pitcher with better underlying metrics like MacKenzie Gore, or perhaps in an expanded deal with a hitter for a pitcher like Joe Ryan.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Tyler Anderson.
Speaking of pitchers to trade away, that might be the case with Anderson. Of course, capitalizing on Anderson’s surface-level production (he has a 2.81 ERA and a 4.53 FIP with just a 16.8% strikeout rate) certainly isn’t anything new for those who’ve read this column before.
However, Anderson’s fantasy trade value (both perceived and in reality) might be at its peak right now. Recently named to the American League All-Star team, the veteran’s most recent start saw him strike out a season-high 10 batters in eight shutout innings versus the Cubs, scattering just three hits in the process.
Start getting the ball rolling on trade discussions now.
Quality Starts (QS)
Leaders
Of Note: Aaron Nola.
Sporting a 3.48 ERA and a 3.81 FIP in 113.2 innings (18 starts) this season, Aaron Nola has been plenty effective and impactful this season, but he’s probably been more effective than those numbers would indicate. Furthermore, he might be one of the best fantasy trade targets among frontline starters due to that fact.
On June 13 in Boston, Nola was tagged for 11 hits, eight earned runs, two walks, and a home run while throwing just 3.2 innings.
On March 30 at home against Atlanta, Nola allowed 11 hits, seven runs, six earned runs, two home runs, and a walk in 4.1 innings.
Take those two outlier starts out of the picture – the veteran has allowed more than three earned runs in a start just once otherwise – and Nola has allowed 30 earned runs in 105.2 innings.
If you’re doing the math along at home, that spits out a 2.57 ERA.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Kyle Harrison.
Harrison flashed plenty of promise last season, but his strikeout numbers just haven’t carried over at the Major League level this season.
The left-hander is striking out just 7.81 batters per nine innings and posting a 20.2% strikeout rate, as well as a 9.1% swinging strike rate.
He’s also logged a 4.24 ERA and a 4.20 FIP, which keeps him in the mix as a fantasy option in deeper leagues. Pitching half of his games at Oracle Park doesn’t hurt either, but until Harrison starts to show the consistent swing-and-miss numbers he posted in the minors, his fantasy ceiling is more of a streaming option to utilize in home starts against the right opposition.
Saves (SV)
Leaders
Of Note: Clay Holmes.
What with a 3.00 ERA and a 2.67 FIP on the season in his first 36 innings, not to mention 19 saves, Holmes probably isn’t going to be removed from the Yankees’ closer role any time soon.
But, this is certainly a situation to monitor with the veteran, who’s allowed a run or more in five of his last seven outings, posting a 10.80 ERA in 6.2 innings from June 13 through July 7.
Said a slightly different way, he allowed two earned runs in three of his last seven outings.
Like with Rodon and pitcher wins, whoever the Yankees closer is will likely get a ton of save opportunities. At this point, it (speculatively speaking) seems likely that Holmes will be that closer.
Still, keep an eye on the back end of the Yankees bullpen.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Alex Vesia.
The Dodgers have long been a home for strong ancillary save totals. This year, it seemed that Daniel Hudson might take up the role of the top option for saves after primary closer Evan Phillips.
But, as of late, it’s been Vesia who is second on the team with five saves, three of which have come since June 14.
Overall, the left-hander has pitched to a 1.36 ERA and a 3.40 FIP in his first 39.2 innings, logging six holds, five saves, and a pitcher win in the process. He’s also struck out 50 batters compared to 18 walks.
WHIP
Leaders
Of Note: Joe Ryan.
Joe Ryan has been a model of consistency in the Minnesota Twins rotation.
Exactly three times this season has Ryan given up more than three runs in a start.
He’s also thrown at least five innings in every start (while also reaching the seven-inning mark in four of his last 11 starts), has recorded at least six strikeouts in 10 of his 18 starts, and has walked more than one batter in just three of his starts.
In those three outings, he, for reference, walked all of two batters each time.
That consistency and consistent excellence make Ryan an ideal trade target for fantasy managers in Roto leagues in particular.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Mitchell Parker.
MacKenzie Gore is still rostered in far too few leagues relative to his performance so far this season, but Parker is making a case to be in the conversation with his Nationals teammate for one of the most underrated fantasy options this season. At least where rostered rates are concerned.
Parker won’t overwhelm with strikeouts at times, averaging just 7.27 of them per nine innings, but he’s been excellent in limiting walks, something that’s in part kept his ERA (3.61), FIP (3.93) and WHIP (1.10) down this season.
The walks, or relative lack thereof, give Parker a slightly higher fantasy ceiling in Roto leagues, but he’s worth a look in head-to-head scoring leagues where his strikeout numbers might not stand out as much.
And for as much as Parker has struggled to miss bats on a regular basis, with six starts featuring four or fewer strikeouts, the left-hander will log higher strikeout totals at times. He struck out eight in six innings in Colorado on June 22 after previously doing the same in seven shutout innings at home against Houston in his second Major League start on April 21.
In between, Parker struck out 13 in a 12.1-inning stretch spanning two starts from May 20 through May 27.