Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every Monday of the year.
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Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback.tv 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.
It’s that time of the year where we shift from the traditional Top 100 ranking of The List to a stupid long article outlining every single expected Starting Pitcher start and ranking them all together in one smattering that kinda makes sense and should help your team.
Yeah, it’s a lot to take in, but it’s what I think is the most helpful way of talking about the final four weeks of the season and it’s what you see before you.
First thing’s first, I want to thank Josh Mockensturm for creating the individual team tables and color-coding their matchup tiers. I’ve compiled them all to make the mega tables at the end of the article, and that’s only possible because of Josh’s work.
These schedules are going to change. Seriously, even the daily streaming pitchers article I write often changes and that’s published just hours before game time. Use this article as a guide to understand the flow of rotations and move the respective pitchers around as needed when changes happen.
For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:
- This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
- Again, these tables are going to change. I’m trying to give a general idea of it, but injured pitchers returning, rainouts, bumped starters, callups, etc. mean the orders are all messed up. It happens, nothing I can do about it.
- The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.
Pretty straightforward stuff. Let’s take a look at how I’m loosely ranking these matchups for the next month (which, also, will change. These are humans, after all):
We’ve changed our tier colors to make them color-blind friendly. A Twitter comment asked for the change and it’s a great idea to ensure everyone can use these schedules effectively. Sorry for the confusion!
This year, I’ve added labels to each pitcher in their team tables, designated by their color. Here is the legend:
Changes This Week
We’ve added (OFF) and (SUN) to the tables to help figure out schedules moving forward when things go haywire:
(OFF) = The previous day was an off-day.
(Sun) = This game will be played on a Sunday.
It’ll also help for those hoping to target specific weeks moving forward (Follow the SUN!).
We altered the color code for both opponent strength and Tier label to better suit colorblind individuals. I’m glad every can use this effectively now!
We moved the team’s schedule to the bottom of their section to help those who CTRL+F players. It’s annoying to scroll back up to see the schedule after finding a pitcher – now the table will be seen without scrolling back up.
Now let’s jump to the expected schedules for each team starting
Ryne Nelson – Let. Him. Ride. Okay, maybe not against Houston.
Zac Gallen – His heater is not locked in and I’m scared a ton. Take the easy starts and be careful otherwise.
Merrill Kelly – He’s not the Kelly of 2023 and I worry we won’t like what we see, even if he returned to 92/93 mph.
Brandon Pfaadt – A few tough matchups to navigate around, but relatively safe otherwise. Pick your spots.
Eduardo Rodriguez – Two bad matchups and a Toby for the others.
Team Notes: I don’t expect to see Jordan Montgomery return to the rotation unless an injury appears. Even then, I wouldn’t trust him.
Atlanta
Chris Sale – Aces gonna ace.
Charlie Morton – He’s a Cherry Bomb, but maybe he can give you value when he’s supposed to against poor teams.
Reynaldo López – His slider is looking great. Let him roll.
Max Fried – He’s starting to look like an ace again and the schedule is glorious.
Spencer Schwellenbach – I don’t think I’m benching him at all, even against the Dodgers. He survived against the Phils, after all.
Team Notes: We may see some peripheral arms throughout September and I’d ignore them all. Sorry, Hurston Waldrep.
Cade Povich – Circle him for those starts against the Tigers and the White Sox.
Albert Suárez – Consider Suárez for but Fenway here. Great Win chances and I dig the curveball in his last start.
Dean Kremer – I don’t like Kremer’s arsenal enough to trust a stream against the Rays or Giants, but the opportunity is there if you’re in need. Keep in mind, he may not make his next start due to a comebacker to his wrist.
Zach Eflin – He’s very much fine after the Coors outing and we let him fly.
Corbin Burnes – He’s lost his AGA tag, but look at that schedule. Feel free to play it safe against the Dodgers, though the drop on his cutter is back and I LOVE IT.
Team Notes: We could see Trevor Rogers or a recovered Chayce McDermott or another arm from Triple-A appear if Eflin isn’t ready and I’d wait past the first appearance to make a decision there. There’s also Cole Irvin as a possible spot-start, who I’d completely ignore.
Kutter Crawford – I’m a touch worried that Crawford has lost a step with his arsenal, though he should be generally worthwhile in a standard league. However, I just dropped Crawford in a 12-teamer as I needed a streaming spot and didn’t feel comfortable with BAL/@NYY next week, for example. Play to your needs and don’t force yourself to hold Crawford.
Tanner Houck – It’s tough. I didn’t love the Houck we just saw and the schedule is tough.
Nick Pivetta – I don’t love his feel for his arsenal, but hot dang that schedule. Just avoid the Orioles.
Cooper Criswell – Those are some lovely matchups, but he’ll likely go about five frames without a whole of electricity at most (he’s been going four with Rich Hill behind him). He may also get displaced by Priester.
Brayan Bello – I love what we just saw and the schedule looks to be in his favor.
Team Notes: There’s a chance of a call-up or James Paxton getting healthy or any other arm snagging Criswell’s rotation spot. Avoid Quinn Priester until he shows us something tangible.
Justin Steele – He’s had success lately and you’re not benching him against the Pirates or Nationals. The other tough matchups are a tougher call, and I’m still rolling with it.
Jordan Wicks – I wasn’t too impressed with what we saw and I’d be patient with Wicks until the end.
Shota Imanaga – Aces gonna ace.
Javier Assad – He’s had a hot stretch, but I’d only like to jump in down the stretch for his final outings.
Jameson Taillon – He’s a solid play against the Nationals, but not much else.
Team Notes: Not much else to look for here. I wouldn’t touch Hayden Wesneski or Drew Smyly if they got opportunities. Be on the lookout for Caleb Kilian, though the Cubs may be conservative for 2025.
Nick Nastrini – He was able to locate his four-seamer in his last start, but I need more to trust Nastrini. Maybe he’s looking strong enough by the time he facesthe Athletics or Tigers…?
Jonathan Cannon – If you’re desperate for a Quality Start, Cannon has it in him when his command lasts for a full outing.
Davis Martin – That end of the season schedule is awfully tantalizing is Martin is in rhythm against tough teams.
Garrett Crochet – He’s going just four frames and while those may be helpful, it’s not enough unless you’re desperate for strikeouts.
Chris Flexen – There are days he’s FLEXEN AT THE BEACH, but who knows when he put in his PTO.
Team Notes: I wonder if we’ll see some wave of success for the team in September as the rookies fight to make an impression before the spring. Probably not.
Cincinnati Reds
Nick Martinez – The Reds aren’t enthused about letting him start and I’d pass unless he’s in a rhythm heading into his good matchups.
Rhett Lowder – I wasn’t impressed by Lowder and I’d only consider him as a desperate streamer against the Pirates.
Hunter Greene – It’s unclear when he returns, but if he’s stretched out enough, then you roll with it.
Brandon Williamson – If the changeup returns and Williamson gets stretched out, then you may have some decency before the season is up.
Jakob Junis – Do not do this. Seriously.
Julian Aguiar – He’s a sinkerballer who I have little faith with A) Get many more starts and B) Be worth your time.
Team Notes: This is out of control and weird. Greene coming back some point, Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo also trying to find out if they return, Carson Spiers likely getting some follower innings, Connor Phillips and Chase Petty also existing, and even Fernando Cruz acting as a follower who may get stretched out slightly. Likely best to not plan for any of this.
Tanner Bibee – Despite his barking shoulder, Bibee has produced and you’re not pulling him from your rosters.
Ben Lively – He’s on another Vargas Rule run and the schedule gives us no reason to hold back now.
Matthew Boyd – The change and slider were fantastic against the Pirates, I worry he won’t have it against the Dodgers and you’re banking too much on that White Sox/Twins/Cards trio. Not a bad play, just a bit riskier than I’d like.
Alex Cobb – Ayyy, the splitter showed up! maybe we target him for the Rays/Twins/Cards, but I’d rather have Boyd and still consider him highly volatility.
Gavin Williams – I trust the elite four-seamer to become a stronger foundation moving forward + I hope the cutter sticks as his primary #2 pitch to play off the heater, pushing the curve aside. Save for the start against the Dodgers, I’d roll with Gavin through the end.
Team Notes: I wonder if we’ll see Triston McKenzie return before too long. Joey Cantillo and Logan Allen may get another shot and should be ignored.
Kyle Freeland – COL story, bro.
Cal Quantrill – COL story, bro.
Antonio Senzatela – COL story, bro.
Bradley Blalock – COL story, bro.
Austin Gomber – COL story, bro.
Ryan Feltner – COL story, bro.
Ty Blach – COL story, bro.
Team Notes: Those are names and a schedule, alright.
Keider Montero – Montero’s arsenal is pedestrian with an average four-seamer/slider focus. It could work for a few of these, but I’m not circling any of it.
Casey Mize – We saw Mize. It came with a worse heater, slower slider that wasn’t better than before, an a splitter that found strikes but lacked venmon. Maybe he has it back by the end of the year, but I’m heavily skeptical.
Tarik Skubal – Aces gonna ace. Please don’t limit him, but if you do, make it against the Orioles k thx.
Reese Olson – He’s expected to return from the IL, though we shouldn’t expect a whole lot. Play it safe in the first start, then we’ll likely have the green light for the Rays after.
Brant Hurter – He’s a Toby at best, who may have openers for him to make those great matchups workout. Sadly, he doesn’t push the needle enough to justify a confident stream, but maybe we can snag him for the Rays…
Ty Madden – I’m not a fan of Madden’s arsenal, which makes him an arm to avoid against the Athletics and an obvious sit against the Orioles. You should find something else.
Team Notes: We’re probably not getting Jackson Jobe, are we…No, we’re likely not. And I hate it.
Spencer Arrighetti – He’s continued to dominate and even wit the tough schedule, I think most of you are going for it.
Hunter Brown – Brown has done enough with his vast arsenal to let me take the hands off the wheel and let him drive.
Framber Valdez – The curve is cooking (mostly) and you’re letting him fly.
Yusei Kikuchi – Kikuchi is doing the things you want him to do. Go go go.
Ronel Blanco – We may get just one more start of Blanco as the Astros plan to move back to a five-man rotation. He’s served us all so dang well, and you can move on from him if you need the spot, or have fun for one more game (maybe two!).
Justin Verlander – Even though he’s not looking sharp against the Athletics today as I type this, the schedule is too good.
Team Notes: It’s likely a six-man moving forward to give the full team rest, though we might see a skipped start here and there for some across the staff to manage their workload.
Brady Singer – He’s a Cherry Bomb…and likely not worthwhile until after the Yankees.
Seth Lugo – Lugo saw my hesitations last week and cooked with nine pitches against the Astros. Still not a fun pair of matchups ahead, but you should feel much better moving forward.
Alec Marsh – I have no interest here and he’ll be out when Lorenzen returns.
Cole Ragans – Aces gonna ace. That sixth inning was so frustrating.
Michael Lorenzen – Circle those final three starts…if he makes it back in time.
Michael Wacha – Circle those final three starts.
Team Notes: Not much to add here. Expect the five-man to last the rest of the way with Marsh leaving once Lorenzen returns.
Reid Detmers – He’s back! And let’s wait to see where he’s at before taking a dive against the Dodgers. I’d probably wait until the White Sox unless he blows us away against the Dodgers.
Griffin Canning – This doesn’t look pretty until the end and he doesn’t always take advantage.
Jack Kochanowicz – He’s a sinkerballer who can find six frames by the good grace of Koufax…with one strikeout along the way. At least it’s the CrySox at the end.
Samuel Aldegheri – I didn’t love what I saw from this southpaw Toby and that schedule is too rough, save for a dire stream against the CrySox.
Tyler Anderson – I’m kinda out on Anderson now since his changeup hasn’t been pristine as of late + the Astros for two and just four starts leaves little to chase.
Caden Dana – I didn’t like his debut as it came with pedestrian heaters and sliders. Throw in a poor schedule and that’s a clear pass.
Team Notes: We may see the return of José Soriano at some point soon, and I’m not sure which arm he’d replace. I’d generally avoid given the poor matchups in the short term, unless his non-Still ILL start has him against the White Sox.
Walker Buehler – What are ya up to fella. Stash if you want as he could take off the TIARA, but don’t wait too long if you can get value in the meantime.
Bobby Miller – Miller just fanned nine but desperately needs a slider. Does he get ousted when Glasnow returns? What happens to this rotation?! Oh, and now he also has knee pain. JUST GREAT.
Gavin Stone – He was grooving until his last outing, but I’d still keep rolling for the most part.
Justin Wrobleski – He just got trounced by the Sneks and I don’t see a great reason to risk it against the Guardians, though there are worse random streams out there.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Unlike Glasnow, Yamamoto needs more innings in him to prep for the playoffs. I’d let him roll after the Still ILL start.
Jack Flaherty – Aces gonna ace.
Clayton Kershaw – I don’t think Kershaw is all that great these days (it’s awfully sad, I know) and now that he’s dealing with bone spurs, he’ll likely be limited even more…if returning to the rotation at all.
Tyler Glasnow – Aces gonna ace…kinda. The Dodgers could be limiting him to ensure he’s healthy for the playoffs and his fully extended start would be in Coors…Not fun.
Team Notes: I don’t know what they’re going to do with seven capable starters. Does Buehler and/or Miller move to the pen?! Kershaw?!
Max Meyer – It’s only the slider and even that isn’t great these days.
Valente Bellozo – He had a few starts of Koufax on his side and his best fastball/cutter. I don’t think that returns, save for maybe one of those good matchups. It’s not worthwhile.
Adam Oller – Oller can make it work if his four-seamer is on point. Those matchups are pretty after Philly and if he still has a groove (and maybe a curve and/or change, too?), he could be a streaming option. He did just have his curveball working against the Giants too…Nah, it’s a dart throw.
Edward Cabrera – If he throws strikes, he’s worthwhile. Who knows when.
Darren McCaughan – You really shouldn’t be starting Darren.
Team Notes: Don’t forget about the low Win chance the Marlins carry in these games.
Aaron Civale – Are they going to continue with Civale? I have to wonder if the Brewers move him to the pen to prep for the playoffs, especially if the breakers aren’t performing well.
Colin Rea – Do you want to roll with this Vargas Rule? He could also find pen time if the bottom falls out.
Frankie Montas – Montas is up to 97 mph and may hold it. That creates a pair of intriguing streams ahead.
Tobias Myers – The matchups are generally good and Myers has been rolling for a while – ignore his last outing.
Freddy Peralta – He may be flirting with Professor Chaos but hot dang, look at those opponents.
Team Notes: I wonder if Jacob Misiorowski will see the majors soon as a starter – he’s be an instant spec add if he does.
David Festa – Those are some cushy matchups in the short term and his slider was great in his last start.
Louie Varland – The Twins are apparently going six-man now and Varland does get some nice matchups, but I don’t trust him to take advantage quite yet. I may change my tone next week if he comes through against the Rays.
Pablo López – Look at those matchups…
Zebby Matthews – Yes, that start was horrible over the weekend and the Royals start is a little more in question. I’m going for that one and all the others, too. His skills are not what we just saw.
Bailey Ober – Aces gonna ace.
Simeon Woods Richardson – His schedule changed and now he only has one matchup where I’d consider him. Blegh.
Team Notes: The Twins may be adjusting this rotation to adapt to the playoffs if they want to test a starter in the pen.
David Peterson – I don’t buy Peterson’s run, but hot dang is that a good schedule.
Tylor Megill – This could be José Buttó instead. Either way, it’s a dart throw against the Red Sox and maybe the Jays.
Jose Quintana – Consider him a streamer early and drop later. That said, I really didn’t like his ability last start and I have a touch of worry.
Sean Manaea – He’s been doing so well, it’s tough to deny him now.
Luis Severino – A few obvious starts and a few you need to heavily consider.
Paul Blackburn – He’s dealing with a hand contusion and should be back in time for some terrible matchups.
Team Notes: Nothing to add here.
Carlos Rodón – You’re also doing this.
Luis Gil – We don’t know when he’ll return and if he’ll be completely fine when he does. Don’t bend over backwards for Gil’s outings.
Marcus Stroman – I don’t love Stroman but the Win chance is too good against those teams.
Clarke Schmidt – Schmidt may be returning to the rotation in time, making for a possible six-man as the rotation tries to get some respite before their playoff run.
Nestor Cortes – That’s too good of a schedule to pass up…but Cortes certainly isn’t a lock for production. You don’t have to do this.
Gerrit Cole – Okay but you are doing this one.
Team Notes: It’s possible we see some creativity with the Yankees down the stretch to preserve some of their arms, like Schmidt entering the six-man, or Gil pitching out of the pen again and becoming a back-up option for the playoffs.
J.T. Ginn – There’s a chance he can make it work as a sinker/slider arm, but will he be stretched out enough to take advantage of that early schedule after throwing under 70 pitches last time out? Is it worth it?
JP Sears – Sears is more of a Cherry Bomb than I’d like.
Joey Estes – He has the Mariners twice acting as the bread of a Definitely Avoid sandwich.
Mitch Spence – I kinda like Spence against Detroit, but that’s about it. Also, I heavily doubt he’ll make that final start.
Osvaldo Bido – I dig Bido for Detroit and the White Sox, and maybe even the Cubs and Rangers…? Probably not.
Team Notes: You should expect some random names to appear as well, messing up when arms get Houston or the Yankees. Monitor it and plan accordingly.
Tyler Phillips – He’s gone six frames before, but that was a long time ago. It’s far too risky.
Cristopher Sánchez – He’s not as much of a slam dunk as others, but a clear play moving forward.
Ranger Suárez – I think he pitched better in his last start despite the results and that’s a lovely schedule ahead.
Zack Wheeler – Aces gonna ace.
Aaron Nola – Aces gonna ace.
Team Notes: You’re likely not getting those final starts for Nola and Wheeler, and we may see some Kolby Allard appear here and there.
Paul Skenes – Aces gonna ace. I wonder if he gets limited and shut down after the outing against the Royals.
Domingo Germán – This is a weird one where the expected schedule has Germán getting re-inserted into the rotation at a different spot in the future. Maybe he’s a desperate stream then, but I’d rather just ignore Domingo altogether.
Bailey Falter – There’s a fun pocket of possible streams for Falter, though don’t expect them all to work.
Luis L. Ortiz – The new four-seamer disappeared in his last start, but at least the matchups ahead are in his favor. A solid Toby set of streams.
Mitch Keller – Ehhhh, sure. Don’t go wild here.
Jared Jones – ALLLLL ABOOOOOAAARRD. Don’t expect him to get that last start and expect better than that first annoying return from the IL.
Team Notes: I sincerely hope we get Bubba Chandler in the near future. He’s an instant pick up if he gets the call. Ignore all Jake Woodford were he to get more starts.
Michael King – Aces gonna ace.
Yu Darvish – I’m generally avoiding this. Why? He’s on the IL with a groin injury after officially returning from the restricted list and likely going on rehab starts. By the time he’s theoretically stretched out, he’d get Houston and the Dodgers. Maybe it’s the White Sox, but he’d also end the year with the Sneks…it’s not worth it if you’re dealing with a roster crunch.
Martín Pérez – He’s a clear streamer early, though I didn’t love his stuff last time out. Expect a rebound and roll with it.
Dylan Cease – Aes gonna ace.
Matt Waldron – Remember kids, Don’t Trust A Knuckleballer.
Joe Musgrove – Dude. LOOK. AT. THAT. SCHEDULE.
Team Notes: This is such a glorious schedule. Avoid Adam Mazur or Jhony Brito if they get a shot.
Kyle Harrison – Those matchups are rough. Starting him is hoping for a random strikeout burst at the likely cost of poor ratios.
Robbie Ray – He’s on the IL with a leg injury and it’s unclear when he returns or how disrupted he’ll be when he does. Let’s hope he can dominate out of the gate, but I’d play it safe and chase something else if I’m experiencing a roster crunch. There’s too much unknown here.
Hayden Birdsong – Those matchups are rough. Starting him is in hopes of a random strikeout burst, like Harrison, but worse…?
Blake Snell – Aces gonna ace.
Mason Black – He had himself a solid return to the rotation, but the matchups are in his favor as he keeps Robbie’s rotation spot warm.
Logan Webb – You’re doing this, through thick and thin. But it’s been super thin. DEAL WITH IT.
Team Notes: There isn’t much to get excited about to replace Robbie if he hits the IL.
Luis Castillo – Aces gonna ace.
George Kirby – Hey, please be better with your slider.
Bryan Woo – I’m starting him all the way through. I love his heaters.
Bryce Miller – I don’t love the final outings, and I think you can move on after the start against Texas in some situations.
Logan Gilbert – Aces gonna ace.
Team Notes: There is no one else to disrupt this.
Sonny Gray – He’s been rougher than expected lately, but you’re going with it.
Erick Fedde – The schedule has improve for Fedde, though he’s missing the Seattle series. He’s a standard Toby as you avoid Coors.
Kyle Gibson – He’s been a Toby this year and I’m cool with starting him against the Mariners, Jays, and Pirates.
Lance Lynn – If you add two L’s, you’ll get a third.
Miles Mikolas – He’s a desperate option for a Win or QS, even against those decent matchups.
Andre Pallante – The cut-fastball has been absurdly effective despite sitting comfortably in the zone, making for a pair of streams in the short term, ignoring today’s game against the Brewers.
Team Notes: Is this going to be a six-man rotation with Lynn returning? I imagine Pallante will stick around making it impossible to see someone fall out of it.
Jeffrey Springs – I trust the command to be good enough to survive Philly and Cleveland, but you don’t have to start him in both. He’s unlikely to get that last start.
Tyler Alexander – We could see a start or two of T-Lex and the reward isn’t worth the floor.
Taj Bradley – He’s a Cherry Bomb. Good luck.
Shane Baz – Those matchups are rough. If you’re okay with the Baltimore start, then you should feel good the rest of the way.
Ryan Pepiot – It’s a tough call with Pepiot’s volatility (horrible changeup last game) and if you have no one else to drop, I understand with the Orioles and Guardians up next. He’s a Cherry Bomb with this schedule.
Zack Littell – It looks like Littell’s schedule got worse and the Jays are the only stream even in consideration. Blegh.
Team Notes: The Rays are known to baby their starters, which may mean a whole lot of switcheroos going on down the stretch. This schedule is looser than others.
Andrew Heaney – How can you turn away Heaney with those matchups? But it’s the Yankees. Fine, then you can jump back in.
Nathan Eovaldi – As long as he’s healthy, we start him without question. Okay maybe the Yankees.
Tyler Mahle – The velocity was down and I’d wait at least one start before taking a stab at this. I doubt he has enough time.
Jon Gray – I don’t expect the Rangers to lean on Gray in the rotation over Bradford, making his time limited with Mahle/deGrom. It’s possible he finds room and sticks over Jack Leiter, but I have little interest in risking it.
Jacob deGrom – Okay, this is just unfair. For all of us, we NEED deGrom to return with those opponents.
Cody Bradford – He’s pitching too well to take out of the rotation. I’d roll with it for all. What a lovely pickup he has been.
Jack Leiter – Sadly, Leiter wasn’t refined in his return to the majors and unless I see a new man tonight against the Yankees, I’d be incredibly cautious taking the chance against the Angels on Saturday. That’s a desperate dart throw, though a successful outing there could warrant more starts in the Rangers’ rotation.
Team Notes: This schedule is so tough to figure out with many injured starters and a young arm hoping to earn more starts. Be aware.
Chris Bassitt – Those aren’t fun in the beginning, but Bassitt is a guy you set and forget.
Bowden Francis – I’m not a major believer in his recent run, but all that’s left now are the Phillies until the schedule opens up. Guess we’re doing this, eh?
Kevin Gausman – The splitter still fails to earn a ton of whiffs, but he has the best schedule of the lot.
José Berríos – With the Red Sox start now behind him, the other matchups are generally fine enough to roll with Berríos.
Yariel Rodríguez – He has his moments, but he generally goes 4/5 frames and that’s not it. H*ck, he was limited to under four this weekend.
Team Notes: This should be what we get, save for Gausman possibly missing that final outing.
Patrick Corbin – Corbin, you mad man. You ACTUALLY came through in a second start with the harder cutter (against the Yankees!) and now you’re looking at a glorious schedule in the near future. This may be the hilarious sneaky September play for your playoffs…or the big brain move you can’t believe you ruined your team for.
MacKenzie Gore – He hasn’t looked good in months.
Jake Irvin – His curveball is not the pitch that carried him. I wouldn’t trust this.
DJ Herz – Herz flexed a legit four-seamer + changeup approach and doesn’t have a poor matchup until the final weekend. That said, the changeup disappeared last game and we just don’t know what this Cherry Bomb will bring each time he pitches.
Mitchell Parker – His slider just went 7/11 whiffs as all four pitches were present, and now it’s the Pirates and Marlins. Works for me.
Team Notes: I expect this to be the schedule, save for the final start for Parker. We’ve seen a prospect get that game often.
The List Based On ROS Schedules
Phew. With all the team schedules outlined above, I went forward and made a GIANT table featuring every starter listed above, ranking them in six different tiers to get a sense of who to target and avoid down the stretch.
Before we get to that, I need to address a few things:
- Due to the annoying nature of predicting schedule vs. things shifting around constantly, I decided to tier them up and sort them by alphabetical order.
- It’s just too nuanced to rank these properly at this point. What is the value of 4 starts remaining vs. 5? It depends on so much.
- Seriously, this is near impossible at this point. For daily questions, I’ll have my daily streaming articles.
- Let me outline the definitions of each tier:
- Auto: You’re pretty much starting them for each outing they have ahead of them, regardless of the opponent. Maybe one or two considerations, but you’re likely still starting them.
- Solid: You trust them against weak teams and there may be one or two games that give you some hesitation. These are the arms that are most likely already rostered in leagues and not available off the wire. There are also a few arms who are trending down and may fall into the “Gamble” tier next week.
- Tobys and Bombs: These are possible waiver adds with a heavy swing of good and poor matchups, with a mix of your standard Toby types who you trust a little more than a streamer, your high upside/high risk Cherry Bomb types, or guys who we may like to take a spec add on and see if they can become more trusted in future weeks.
- Early Streamer: These are streaming options for the next few starts ahead, who we’re dropping after. It’s not always perfect (like one bad matchup then becoming a streamer), but they should help you plan your weeks ahead.
- Late Streamer: These are streaming options in future weeks to circle and be aware of if you’re looking to get ahead of other managers in your league.
- Desperate Streamer: They have a skill that gives them a chance to come through – Long leash, strikeout upside, etc. – but shouldn’t be circled as an option in your leagues.
- Do Not Start: It’s certainly possible they pull off a good outing here and there, but you really don’t want to bet on it. Don’t do this.
- These matchups are likely to change plenty between now and the end of the season and take the time to look into who maybe shift around and who may not (e.g. The Yankees rotation)
- Again, please don’t hate me, this took forever.
- I went with a screenshot instead of a table as it’s far easier to create the colored cells for opponents + I think it works better for scrolling. Sorry you can’t Ctrl+F inside it. It’s a concession I think is worth it.
- If you’d like a searchable version, I have shared a copy of this Google Sheet inside our PL+ Discord.
Players are not ranked inside tiers.
They are sorted in alphabetical order.
Auto-Start Tier
You’re pretty much starting them for each outing they have ahead of them, regardless of the opponent. Maybe one or two considerations, but you’re likely still starting them.
Solid Start Tier
You trust them against weak teams and there may be one or two games that give you some hesitation. These are the arms that are most likely already rostered in leagues and not available off the wire. There are also a few arms who are trending down and may fall into the “Gamble” tier next week.
Tobys and Bombs Start Tier
These are possible waiver adds with a heavy swing of good and poor matchups, with a mix of your standard Toby types who you trust a little more than a streamer, your high upside/high risk Cherry Bomb types, or guys who we may like to take a spec add on and see if they can become more trusted in future weeks.
Early Streamer Tier
These are streaming options for the next few starts ahead, who we’re dropping after. It’s not always perfect (like one bad matchup then becoming a streamer), but they should help you plan your weeks ahead.
Late Streamer Tier
These are streaming options in future weeks to circle and be aware of if you’re looking to get ahead of other managers in your league.
Desperate Streamer Tier
They have a skill that gives them a chance to come through – Long leash, strikeout upside, etc. – but shouldn’t be circled as an option in your leagues.
Do Not Start Tier
It’s certainly possible they pull off a good outing here and there, but you really don’t want to bet on it. Don’t do this.
Good luck everyone!
I miss the normal list, this does not help me determine who to start when there is no ranking inside tiers.
would you rather play Heaney vs Angels or Montas vs Rockies?
Adam Mazur was traded to the Marlins at the deadline.
I also miss the normal list. I can’t even ctrl+F to find the pitcher I am researching.
Great work, Nick. For me, start dates and “double start” indications would make this even more useful.