Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every Monday of the year.
Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 2:00 pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!
Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback.tv 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.
It’s that time of the year where we shift from the traditional Top 100 ranking of The List to a stupid long article outlining every single expected Starting Pitcher start and ranking them all together in one smattering that kinda makes sense and should help your team.
Yeah, it’s a lot to take in, but it’s what I think is the most helpful way of talking about the final four weeks of the season and it’s what you see before you.
First thing’s first, I want to thank Josh Mockensturm for creating the individual team tables and color-coding their matchup tiers. I’ve compiled them all to make the mega tables at the end of the article, and that’s only possible because of Josh’s work.
These schedules are going to change. Seriously, even the daily streaming pitchers article I write often changes and that’s published just hours before game time. Use this article as a guide to understand the flow of rotations and move the respective pitchers around as needed when changes happen.
For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:
- This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
- Again, these tables are going to change. I’m trying to give a general idea of it, but injured pitchers returning, rainouts, bumped starters, callups, etc. mean the orders are all messed up. It happens, nothing I can do about it.
- The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.
Pretty straightforward stuff. Let’s take a look at how I’m loosely ranking these matchups for the next month (which, also, will change. These are humans, after all):
We’ve changed our tier colors to make them color-blind friendly. A Twitter comment asked for the change and it’s a great idea to ensure everyone can use these schedules effectively. Sorry for the confusion!
This year, I’ve added labels to each pitcher in their team tables, designated by their color. Here is the legend:
Other Notes
We’ve added (OFF) and (SUN) to the tables to help figure out schedules moving forward when things go haywire:
(OFF) = The previous day was an off-day.
(Sun) = This game will be played on a Sunday.
It’ll also help for those hoping to target specific weeks moving forward (Follow the SUN!).
We altered the color code for both opponent strength and Tier label to better suit colorblind individuals. I’m glad every can use this effectively now!
We moved the team’s schedule to the bottom of their section to help those who CTRL+F players. It’s annoying to scroll back up to see the schedule after finding a pitcher – now the table will be seen without scrolling back up.
Now let’s jump to the expected schedules for each team starting
Zac Gallen – His heater is not locked in and I’m scared a ton. Take the easy starts and be careful otherwise.
Merrill Kelly – We saw Kelly finally take a step forward against the Giants and you should be okay moving forward.
Brandon Pfaadt – A few tough matchups to navigate around, but relatively safe otherwise. Pick your spots.
Eduardo Rodriguez – Skip over the Houston start but consider the others if you’re in need.
Ryne Nelson – Let. Him. Ride. The Houston start was a weird inning. We’re cool.
Team Notes: I don’t expect to see Jordan Montgomery return to the rotation unless an injury appears. Even then, I wouldn’t trust him.
Atlanta
Reynaldo López – His slider is looking great. Let him roll.
Max Fried – He’s starting to look like an ace again and the schedule is glorious.
Spencer Schwellenbach – He struggled against the Dodgers and now has to deal with Cin City. I think he rebounds, even with two low SwStr games.
Chris Sale – Aces gonna ace.
Charlie Morton – He’s a Cherry Bomb, but maybe he can give you value when he’s supposed to against poor teams.
Team Notes: We may see some peripheral arms throughout September and I’d ignore them all. Sorry, Hurston Waldrep.
Albert Suárez – He stumbled against the CrySox, but don’t rule him out after the Fenway start. Lots of great Win chances ahead.
Dean Kremer – Kremer was astonishingly good in his last start, but I would only selectively start him against the Giants or Twins, with no lock for it working. The Win chance is what you’re after.
Zach Eflin – He’s very much fine despite failing to come through against the Rays and we let him fly.
Corbin Burnes – He’s lost his AGA tag and sadly has lost his strikeout ability, despite earning more vertical drop on his cutter.
Cade Povich – Target him for his next two starts against the Tigers after Monday’s Fenway outing.
Team Notes: We could see Trevor Rogers or a recovered Chayce McDermott or another arm from Triple-A appear if Eflin isn’t ready and I’d wait past the first appearance to make a decision there. There’s also Cole Irvin as a possible spot-start, who I’d completely ignore.
Kutter Crawford – Is Kutter’s kutter enough to carry him through the Orioles and Yankees? I put him in the SOLID tier understanding the coin-flip for the Orioles/Yankees, with a good chance of production in the following two.
Nick Pivetta – I don’t love his feel for his arsenal, but hot dang that schedule. Just avoid the Orioles.
Cooper Criswell – Those are some lovely matchups, but he’ll likely go about five frames without a whole of electricity at most (he’s been going four with Rich Hill behind him). He may also get displaced by Priester.
Tanner Houck – It’s tough. I’m struggling to believe Houck can get his splitter back in action, though he should be rostered for the Rays and Jays in the near future.
Brayan Bello – Bello has the skills in him, but I’m terrified of the Yankee start. I’d go after him against against the Twins and Jays.
Team Notes: I wonder if Richard Fitts will get another start in the future. Totally possible he steals one of Criswell’s starts following the game in the Bronx. He’s a possible streaming option in the Trop were that to come.
Shota Imanaga – Aces gonna ace.
Jordan Wicks – I wasn’t too impressed with what we saw and I’d be patient with Wicks until the end.
Javier Assad – He’s had a hot stretch, but I’d only like to jump in for the Reds and maybe the Athletics.
Jameson Taillon – He’s a solid play against the Nationals, but not much else, even after his last two performances.
Kyle Hendricks – Please don’t, y’all.
Justin Steele – Steele is dealing with an elbow issue and it’s unclear if he makes another start this year. Be careful. I have him as a SOLID on the assumption this projected schedule is correct – it means he’s healthy enough for a short IL stint and can perform right away, while stretched out for the Phillies. However, if it’s delayed longer, I’d avoid it as he’d be too rusty.
Team Notes: Not much else to look for here. I wouldn’t touch Hayden Wesneski or Drew Smyly if they got opportunities. Be on the lookout for Caleb Kilian, though the Cubs may be conservative for 2025.
Jonathan Cannon – If you’re desperate for a Quality Start, Cannon has it in him when his command lasts for a full outing.
Davis Martin – That end of the season schedule is awfully tantalizing is Martin is in rhythm against tough teams.
Garrett Crochet – He’s going just four frames and while those may be helpful, it’s not enough unless you’re desperate for strikeouts.
Chris Flexen – There are days he’s FLEXEN AT THE BEACH, but who knows when he put in his PTO.
Nick Nastrini – He was able to locate his four-seamer in his last start, but I need more to trust Nastrini. Maybe he’s looking strong enough by the time he faces the Tigers…?
Team Notes: I wonder if we’ll see some wave of success for the team in September as the rookies fight to make an impression before the spring. Probably not.
Cincinnati Reds
Rhett Lowder – I wasn’t impressed by Lowder and I’d only consider him as a desperate streamer moving forward. It’s possible he strings together a Quality Start at least once.
Hunter Greene – It’s unclear when he returns, but if he’s stretched out enough, then you roll with it.
Brandon Williamson – I haven’t been impressed, nor have the Reds stretched him out.
Jakob Junis – Do not do this. Seriously. But he just went five frames! SERIOUSLY.
Julian Aguiar – He’s a sinkerballer who I have little faith with A) Get many more starts and B) Be worth your time.
Nick Martinez – The Reds just let him throw 100 pitches and he has a decent pair of matchups. It could work.
Team Notes: This is out of control and weird. Greene coming back some point, Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo also trying to find out if they return, Carson Spiers likely getting some follower innings, Connor Phillips and Chase Petty also existing, and even Fernando Cruz acting as a follower who may get stretched out slightly. Likely best to not plan for any of this.
Alex Cobb – Ayyy, the splitter showed up! And then he was pushed back because of a blister issue! I’m scared his splitter will disappear as a product, making the great schedule hold less weight than usual.
Matthew Boyd – The change and slider were fantastic against the Pirates and then he had it again despite facing the Dodgers. LET’S ROLL.
Ben Lively – Look. Lively has lost some steam and it looks awfully pedestrian. He still carries a good Win chance + a cushy schedule.
Gavin Williams – I trust the elite four-seamer to become a stronger foundation moving forward + I hope the cutter sticks as his primary #2 pitch to play off the heater, pushing the curve aside. His recent start against the Dodgers was strange due to Cobb’s injury forcing him to start a day early and I’m not holding it against him with the lovely matchups ahead.
Tanner Bibee – Despite his barking shoulder, Bibee has produced and you’re not pulling him from your rosters.
Team Notes: I wonder if we’ll see Triston McKenzie return before too long. Logan Allen may get another shot and should be ignored, with Joey Cantillo’s spot start on Monday not to be trusted nor expected to displace the rotation.
Bradley Blalock – COL story, bro.
Cal Quantrill – COL story, bro.
Austin Gomber – COL story, bro.
Ryan Feltner – COL story, bro.
Kyle Freeland – COL story, bro.
Antonio Senzatela – COL story, bro.
Team Notes: Those are names and a schedule, alright.
Keider Montero – Montero’s arsenal is pedestrian with an average four-seamer/slider focus. It could work for a few of these, but I’m not circling any of it.
Casey Mize – We saw Mize. It came with a worse heater, slower slider that wasn’t better than before, and a splitter that found strikes but lacked venmon. Maybe he has it back by the end of the year, but I’m heavily skeptical.
Tarik Skubal – Aces gonna ace. Please don’t limit him, but if you do, make it against the Orioles k thx.
Reese Olson – He’s expected to return from the IL, though we shouldn’t expect a whole lot. Play it safe in the first start, then we’ll likely have the green light for the Rays after.
Brant Hurter – He’s a Toby at best, who may have openers for him to make those great matchups workout. Sadly, he doesn’t push the needle enough to justify a confident stream, but maybe we can snag him for the Rays at the end…
Ty Madden – I’m not a fan of Madden’s arsenal, which makes him an obvious sit against the Orioles, even after displaying a successful splitter against the Athletics (I don’t trust it). You should find something else.
Team Notes: Jackson Jobe was promoted to Triple-A. It may mean we see him before season’s end, but y’all know we don’t start pitchers in MLB debuts…but if it’s against the Rays or White Sox…? WE RIDE AT DAWN.
Spencer Arrighetti – He’s continued to dominate and even with the tough schedule, I think most of you are going for it. But the last game was terrible! It was a rocky frame and an error made it go on much longer. IT HAPPENS.
Hunter Brown – Brown has done enough with his vast arsenal to let me take the hands off the wheel and let him drive.
Framber Valdez – The curve is cooking (mostly) and you’re letting him fly.
Yusei Kikuchi – Kikuchi is doing the things you want him to do. Go go go.
Justin Verlander – He just failed once again, but it’s the Angels. TWICE. You gotta go for those.
Ronel Blanco – We saw the Astros skip Blanco’s last outing, but he’ll be back to face the Angels over the weekend and likely stick for another after that.
Team Notes: It’s likely a six-man moving forward to give the full team rest, though we might see a skipped start here and there for some across the staff to manage their workload.
Seth Lugo – Lugo has done nothing but soar across his last two starts against tough teams, making me start him against the Yankees, then kick up my legs for the rest of the year.
Cole Ragans – Aces gonna ace. Yes, even against the Yankees.
Alec Marsh – He’s getting an extended play inside the rotation as Lorenzen takes longer and longer to return. I can’t endorse Marsh with an “Early Streamer” tag, but you could do worse for a desperate stream against the Pirates and Tigers.
Michael Lorenzen – Are you returning before the season ends? If so, will it be more than a Still ILL outing?
Michael Wacha – Circle those final three starts. He’s been phenomenal with his changeup.
Brady Singer – With the Yankees out of the way on Monday, Singer should be fine against the Pirates and Giants. Then again, he is a prototypical Cherry Bomb.
Team Notes: Not much to add here. Expect the five-man to last the rest of the way with Marsh leaving once Lorenzen returns.
Griffin Canning – This doesn’t look pretty until the end and he doesn’t always take advantage.
Jack Kochanowicz – He’s a sinkerballer who can find six frames by the good grace of Koufax…with one strikeout along the way. At least it’s the CrySox at the end.
Samuel Aldegheri – I didn’t love what I saw from this southpaw Toby and that schedule is too rough, save for a dire stream against the CrySox.
Tyler Anderson – I’m kinda out on Anderson now since his changeup hasn’t been pristine as of late + the Astros for two and the Rangers after leaves little to chase.
Caden Dana – I didn’t like his debut as it came with pedestrian heaters and sliders. Throw in a poor schedule and that’s a clear pass.
Reid Detmers – He’s back! And was stellar against the Dodgers! It was all about his slider without the massive iVB four-seamer, which makes me concerned he’ll lose his breaker feel before the end of September. However, I’d go for this against the White Sox assuming all is fine against the Twins.
Team Notes: We may see the return of José Soriano at some point soon, and I’m not sure which arm he’d replace. I’d generally avoid given the poor matchups in the short term, unless his non-Still ILL start has him against the White Sox.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Unlike Glasnow, Yamamoto needs more innings in him to prep for the playoffs. I’d let him roll after the Still ILL start.
Bobby Miller – Miller is a thrower, not a pitcher, and it drives me up the wall. Does he get ousted when Glasnow returns? What happens to this rotation?! Oh, and now he also has knee pain. JUST GREAT.
Landon Knack – The Dodgers can’t stay healthy, giving Knack more opportunities, including a start later this week against Atlanta. I’m tepid as his heater and slider are good but traditionally don’t come with the greatest precision. Maybe it’s enough for a Win in that one, but I wouldn’t target that outing and it may be all we see of Knack.
Jack Flaherty – Aces gonna ace.
Clayton Kershaw – I don’t think Kershaw is all that great these days (it’s awfully sad, I know) and now that he’s dealing with bone spurs, he’ll likely be limited even more…if he does return in the next week or two.
Tyler Glasnow – Aces gonna ace…kinda. The Dodgers could be limiting him to ensure he’s healthy for the playoffs and his fully extended start would be in Coors…Not fun.
Walker Buehler – What are ya up to fella. Stash if you want as he could take off the TIARA, but don’t wait too long if you can get value in the meantime.
Gavin Stone – He was grooving and then hit the IL. If he returns, it’ll likely be against the Padres and that’s a clear Still ILL to pass on.
Team Notes: I don’t know what they’re going to do with seven capable starters. Does Buehler and/or Miller move to the pen?! Kershaw?! And what about Justin Wrobleski? I wouldn’t chase him if he starts again, FWIW.
Adam Oller – Oller can make it work if his four-seamer is on point. Those matchups are pretty and after looking great against Philly, I’m so down for the starts ahead. The curveball is landing for strikes!
Adam Mazur – I completely forgot he was in the Tanner Scott trade and now has a new chance to start for the Marlins. No, we don’t do this unless we see something new appear.
Darren McCaughan – You really shouldn’t be starting Darren.
Max Meyer – He’s hurt and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s shut down completely.
Edward Cabrera – If he throws strikes, he’s worthwhile. Who knows when.
Valente Bellozo – He had a few starts of Koufax on his side and his best fastball/cutter. I don’t think that returns, save for maybe one of those good matchups. It’s not worthwhile.
Team Notes: Don’t forget about the low Win chance the Marlins carry in these games.
Aaron Civale – Are they going to continue with Civale? I have to wonder if the Brewers move him to the pen to prep for the playoffs, especially if the breakers aren’t performing well.
Colin Rea – He’s so dang boring and not worth the risk. He could also find pen time if the bottom falls out.
Frankie Montas – Montas is up to 97 mph and may hold it. That makes him an interesting stream against the Giants this week, but an avoid after.
Tobias Myers – The matchups are generally good and Myers has been rolling for a while, including a ton of punchouts in his last outing. He may even pull it off against the phils.
Freddy Peralta – He’s been flirting with Professor Chaos and hot dang it’s annoying. Good luck.
Team Notes: I wonder if Jacob Misiorowski will see the majors soon as a starter – he’s be an instant spec add if he does.
Pablo López – Look at those matchups…Aces gonna ace.
Zebby Matthews – That’s two straight disappointments from Zebby and I completely understand the hesitation. At the very least, start him against the Angels and take it from there? The final three matchups are easy to forgo.
Bailey Ober – Aces gonna ace.
Simeon Woods Richardson – I don’t trust him to do enough against the Reds and maybe he deserves a stream against the Marlins.
David Festa – It’s a decent schedule for Festa, but avoid Fenway if you can. I’d roll with him for the two-step this week, then drop after the game against the Reds.
Team Notes: The Twins may be adjusting this rotation to adapt to the playoffs if they want to test a starter in the pen.
David Peterson – I don’t buy Peterson’s run but who cares. You start him and hope the BSB continues.
Sean Manaea – He’s been doing so well, it’s tough to deny him now.
Jose Quintana – Consider him a streamer against the Nationals if you’d like. His command was a lot better in his last outing.
Luis Severino – I can’t endorse a hold for Severino with two starts against the Phillies. Rough.
Tylor Megill – Megill is trying to go BSB with his heater and slider/cutter and may earn himself more time in the rotation after Monday’s start. We’ll see, if it means the Phillies twice, then we couldn’t care less.
Paul Blackburn – He’s dealing with a hand contusion and should be back in time for some terrible matchups.
Team Notes: It’s possible we won’t see Blackburn return for much, giving another chance for José Buttó to return. That could be a desperate stream the final weekend of the year.
Marcus Stroman – I don’t love Stroman but if you need Wins, the opportunity is there.
Luis Gil – He just returned and tossed nearly 90 pitches…while sitting almost two ticks down. I’m going to lean into his next two starts and if he’s in a groove, that may be enough for the Orioles.
Clarke Schmidt – Schmidt has returned to the rotation and now gets two great matchups. I didn’t love his feel in the Still ILL start, but that rust could be gone as soon as Thursday as he hosts the Red Sox.
Nestor Cortes – The Yankees just skipped Cortes and I sure hope he can come through with one of the best ROS schedules out there.
Gerrit Cole – Aces gonna ace. You’re doing this even without Cole’s best slider.
Carlos Rodón – You’re also doing this.
Team Notes: There’s a chance we see some creativity from the Yankees down the stretch to preserve some of their arms, like Schmidt entering the six-man, or Gil pitching out of the pen again and becoming a back-up option for the playoffs, or even Cortes getting pushed to the pen.
Osvaldo Bido – Bido was just skipped and I’d be down to jump back in for the White Sox and Mariners. Not the Yankees unless I were desperate.
JP Sears – Sears is more of a Cherry Bomb than I’d like with too rough of a schedule.
Joey Estes – He didn’t take care of the Mariners initially and he may have a chance to redeem himself by the end, with a sprinkle of hope in need of a stream in AL-Only leagues when he faces the Rangers.
Mitch Spence – I kinda like Spence against Detroit and it’s possible he pulls off a string of decency through the Cubs and Rangers. Don’t get your hopes up.
J.T. Ginn – He ran into trouble against the Tigers as a sinker/slider arm when they sent a LHB-heavy lineup to greet him. The White Sox are an easier day at the park and could help Ginn find six frames.
Team Notes: You should expect some random names to appear as well, like another day with Brady Basso. It’s the Athletics, after all.
Ranger Suárez – I hated to see 2-3 ticks off all his pitches last start, but that schedule y’all. THE WINS HE COULD GET.
Zack Wheeler – Aces gonna ace.
Aaron Nola – Aces gonna ace.
Seth Johnson – He looked terrible in his MLB debut, but a near 20″ iVB heater may grant him a Win if he sticks in the rotation long enough to eradicate his jitters.
Cristopher Sánchez – He’s not as much of a slam dunk as others, but a clear play moving forward.
Team Notes: You’re likely not getting those final starts for Nola and Wheeler, and we may see some Kolby Allard appear here and there.
Joey Wentz – Oh snap! Totally didn’t expect this one. It’s likely a spot start, but who knows? We don’t touch it, obviously. He had some very rare moments with the Tigers, but nothing to latch onto.
Bailey Falter – There’s a fun string of possible streams for Falter ahead, but he hasn’t come through at all lately, without a high ceiling.
Luis L. Ortiz – I don’t love Ortiz at the moment without the command he needs to putaway batters, but that’s a decent enough schedule ahead if you need to find starts.
Mitch Keller – Ehhhh, sure. It’s like Ortiz but with more upside.
Jared Jones – ALLLLL ABOOOOOAAARRD.
Paul Skenes – Aces gonna ace. I wonder if he gets limited and shut down after the outing against the Reds.
Team Notes: I sincerely hope we get Bubba Chandler in the near future. He’s an instant pick up if he gets the call. Ignore all Jake Woodford were he to get more starts.
Yu Darvish – We got Darvish sooner than expected, but it was just 63 pitches. Assuming 70-75 next time out, I’m down to start Darvish in Seattle. If that works, we go forward with Houston and definitely the White Sox. Probably Arizona, too.
Martín Pérez – Just one more start left that’s worth our time.
Michael King – Aces gonna ace.
Dylan Cease – Aes gonna ace.
Joe Musgrove – Dude. LOOK. AT. THAT. SCHEDULE. That 6 ER game ain’t real life.
Team Notes: This is such a glorious schedule. Avoid Jhony Brito if they get a shot.
Hayden Birdsong – Those matchups are rough. Starting him is in hopes of a random strikeout burst, like Harrison, but worse…?
Robbie Ray – He’s on the IL with a leg injury and it’s unclear when he returns or how disrupted he’ll be when he does. Let’s hope he can dominate out of the gate, but I’d play it safe and chase something else if I’m experiencing a roster crunch. There’s too much unknown here.
Blake Snell – Aces gonna ace.
Mason Black – He had himself a solid return to the rotation and likely gets more starts as the Giants need help replacing Harrison’s rotation spot. Sadly, the matchups don’t do him any favors.
Logan Webb – You’re doing this, through thick and thin. But it’s been super thin. DEAL WITH IT.
Spencer Bivens – I was shocked we saw over four frames of Bivens and wouldn’t touch any of his outings.
Team Notes: There isn’t much to get excited about to replace Robbie if he hits the IL.
George Kirby – Hey, please be better with your slider. I’m a little worried against the Padres and I wonder how much of an “ACE” we’ll see moving forward, but yeah, we go for it.
Bryan Woo – I’m starting him all the way through. I love his heaters. Even against the Padres and Yankees?! YUP.
Bryce Miller – I hate the schedule, but let’s start him against the Rangers and go from there. He’ll be in Seattle for the Yankees, which may make that palatable.
Logan Gilbert – Aces gonna ace. Probably. Those last two starts are annoying.
Luis Castillo – Aces gonna ace…if he’s pitching. He left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury and it’s unclear when he returns. I’m guessing that he misses his next start and would be back for the second game against the Rangers at the earliest. I’d start him there.
Emerson Hancock – We should expect Hancock to appear in Castillo’s spot in the rotation and I have no interest. He’s not a strikeout pitcher.
Team Notes: Maybe it’s not Hancock, but whoever takes the spot shouldn’t be relied upon for your fantasy teams.
Andre Pallante – The cut-fastball has been absurdly effective despite sitting comfortably in the zone (outside of that Brewers start), making for a pair of streams in the short term.
Lance Lynn – If you add two L’s, you’ll get a third.
Sonny Gray – He’s been rougher than expected lately, but you’re going with it.
Erick Fedde – Not a bad schedule for Fedde, though his increased four-seamer usage is not doing him any favors. Maybe target him for the Jays and Pirates, maybe just the Pirates.
Kyle Gibson – He’s been a Toby this year and I’m cool with starting him against the Jays, maybe the Guardians in a dire spot, then back at it against the Giants.
Miles Mikolas – He’s a desperate option for a Win or QS, even against those decent matchups. I’d hate to be in a position where I’d need to start Mikolas.
Team Notes: Is this going to be a six-man rotation with Lynn returning? I imagine Pallante will stick around making it impossible to see someone fall out of it.
Taj Bradley – He’s a Cherry Bomb. Good luck.
Shane Baz – Those matchups are rough and I’d prefer to sit against the Phillies and Fenway, though I think Baz does enough to succeed during a homestand against the Sawx and Jays.
Ryan Pepiot – It’s a tough call with Pepiot, who just came through against the Orioles on the back of his four-seamer incessantly finding strikes in the zone. I think we chase it with two-of-three matchups ahead looking to be in his favor, but if you can move in-and-out, I would be conservatively sitting against the Guardians.
Zack Littell – Littell just made it work against the Orioles and I’m still not interested. Despite those two final starts, I don’t want to risk it.
Jeffrey Springs – He hit the IL with left elbow fatigue and it could mean the end of the 2024 season for Springs. Womp womp.
Tyler Alexander – We could see a start or two of T-Lex with Springs on the IL and the reward isn’t worth the floor.
Team Notes: The Rays are known to baby their starters, which may mean a whole lot of switcheroos going on down the stretch. This schedule is looser than others.
Nathan Eovaldi – As long as he’s healthy, we start him without question. Go go go.
Cody Bradford – He’s pitching too well to take out of the rotation. I’d roll with it for all. What a lovely pickup he has been.
Kumar Rocker – OH MAN. He’s just been announced to be coming up to start against the Mariners on Thursday (I’m assuming he takes Jack Leiter’s spot, who was also a streaming option for this start). I normally don’t go after MLB debuts, but this is in Seattle and if you’re chasing strikeouts, what the h*ck. Have fun. For those not playing from behind, I think this is too risky.
Jacob deGrom – Okay, this is just unfair. For all of us, we NEED deGrom to return with those opponents.
Max Scherzer – Yooooo he’s back! And gets a great schedule! You gotta do this.
Andrew Heaney – How can you turn away Heaney with those matchups? He’s got this.
Team Notes: This schedule is difficult to figure out with injured pitchers returning, Leiter/Rocker getting chances, and Tyler Mahle likely shut down for the year. As for Jack Leiter, he didn’t have his secondaries against the Angels, but the four-seamer was excellent. If he gets just one of his breakers consistently down, he could return an explosion of strikeouts…if he gets another shot.
Bowden Francis – Guess we’re doing this, eh? He looked his best against the Phillies with splitter and heater separation, so alright, we don’t have much of a choice.
Kevin Gausman – The splitter finally earned double-digit whiffs last time out, even if it didn’t equate to a splurge of strikeouts. Let’s hope he can hold it.
José Berríos – With the Red Sox start now behind him, the other matchups are generally fine enough to roll with Berríos.
Yariel Rodríguez – He has his moments, but he generally goes 4/5 frames and that’s not it. Sunday’s start was a peak, not a new plateau.
Chris Bassitt – Bassitt has fallen hard in the second half, and I completely understand not wanting to give this a chance down the stretch if you’re hurting in WHIP. Those matchups are so good though…
Team Notes: This should be what we get, save for Gausman possibly missing that final outing.
MacKenzie Gore – He’s suddenly turned it around and maybe we just go with this against Atlanta and the Marlins and see where we’re at? He could still very well just be a Cherry Bomb, sadly.
Jake Irvin – His curveball is not the pitch that carried him. I wouldn’t trust this.
DJ Herz – Herz flexed a legit four-seamer + changeup approach and it could come through against the Marlins and Mets, but I consider him an option for those in need early, and one to avoid against the Cubs and Phillies.
Mitchell Parker – He wasn’t the dependable arm we expect against the Marlins, but I think I’m still trusting him for that Marlins start at least. Maybe more if I’m in need for more volume.
Patrick Corbin – Corbin, you almost came through. Three straight great starts until you stumbled against the Pirates. I don’t think I can chase a start against the Marlins. Probably.
Team Notes: I expect this to be the schedule, save for the final start for Parker. We’ve seen a prospect get that game often.
The List Based On ROS Schedules
Phew. With all the team schedules outlined above, I went forward and made a GIANT table featuring every starter listed above, ranking them in six different tiers to get a sense of who to target and avoid down the stretch.
Before we get to that, I need to address a few things:
- Due to the annoying nature of predicting schedule vs. things shifting around constantly, I decided to tier them up and sort them by alphabetical order.
- It’s just too nuanced to rank these properly at this point. What is the value of 4 starts remaining vs. 5? It depends on so much.
- Seriously, this is near impossible at this point. For daily questions, I’ll have my daily streaming articles.
- Let me outline the definitions of each tier:
- Auto: You’re pretty much starting them for each outing they have ahead of them, regardless of the opponent. Maybe one or two considerations, but you’re likely still starting them.
- Solid: You trust them against weak teams and there may be one or two games that give you some hesitation. These are the arms that are most likely already rostered in leagues and not available off the wire. There are also a few arms who are trending down and may fall into the “Gamble” tier next week.
- Tobys and Bombs: These are possible waiver adds with a heavy swing of good and poor matchups, with a mix of your standard Toby types who you trust a little more than a streamer, your high upside/high risk Cherry Bomb types, or guys who we may like to take a spec add on and see if they can become more trusted in future weeks.
- Early Streamer: These are streaming options for the next few starts ahead, who we’re dropping after. It’s not always perfect (like one bad matchup then becoming a streamer), but they should help you plan your weeks ahead.
- Late Streamer: These are streaming options in future weeks to circle and be aware of if you’re looking to get ahead of other managers in your league.
- Desperate Streamer: They have a skill that gives them a chance to come through – Long leash, strikeout upside, etc. – but shouldn’t be circled as an option in your leagues.
- Do Not Start: It’s certainly possible they pull off a good outing here and there, but you really don’t want to bet on it. Don’t do this.
- These matchups are likely to change plenty between now and the end of the season and take the time to look into who maybe shift around and who may not (e.g. The Yankees rotation)
- Again, please don’t hate me, this took forever.
- I went with a screenshot instead of a table as it’s far easier to create the colored cells for opponents + I think it works better for scrolling. Sorry you can’t Ctrl+F inside it. It’s a concession I think is worth it.
- If you’d like a searchable version, I have shared a copy of this Google Sheet inside our PL+ Discord.
Players are not ranked inside tiers.
They are sorted in alphabetical order.
Auto-Start Tier
You’re pretty much starting them for each outing they have ahead of them, regardless of the opponent. Maybe one or two considerations, but you’re likely still starting them.
Solid Start Tier
You trust them against weak teams and there may be one or two games that give you some hesitation. These are the arms that are most likely already rostered in leagues and not available off the wire. There are also a few arms who are trending down and may fall into the “Gamble” tier next week.
Tobys and Bombs Start Tier
These are possible waiver adds with a heavy swing of good and poor matchups, with a mix of your standard Toby types who you trust a little more than a streamer, your high upside/high risk Cherry Bomb types, or guys who we may like to take a spec add on and see if they can become more trusted in future weeks.
Early Streamer Tier
These are streaming options for the next few starts ahead, who we’re dropping after. It’s not always perfect (like one bad matchup then becoming a streamer), but they should help you plan your weeks ahead.
Late Streamer Tier
These are streaming options in future weeks to circle and be aware of if you’re looking to get ahead of other managers in your league.
Desperate Streamer Tier
They have a skill that gives them a chance to come through – Long leash, strikeout upside, etc. – but shouldn’t be circled as an option in your leagues.
Do Not Start Tier
It’s certainly possible they pull off a good outing here and there, but you really don’t want to bet on it. Don’t do this.
Good luck everyone!
– Greene is expected to return during the Reds’ homestand Sept. 17-22 following two live batting practice sessions beforehand, but as Bell cautions “he is not going to be built up to throw seven innings.”
– No more Soriano, he was transferred to the 60-day IL on Saturday.