Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.
Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!
Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.
For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:
- This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
- Before the notes and rankings, an injury table outlines where players would be relatively ranked if they were fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
- If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
- Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
- Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. The Cherry Bomb players are likely going to underperform those labeled as a Toby across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase ceiling vs. floor in many cases. Pick the one that you need most in your situation, of course.
- I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
- The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.
Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots. Injuries are so strange (especially in spring training) and instead of shoving them at random moments on The List, I’ve elected to throw all of them into one table here for you, the wise fantasy manager, to determine if it’s worthwhile to take the injury discount and when.
(OFS) = Out For Season. They usually went under TJS or a similar procedure.
I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.
Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!
One last point about that – pitchers often need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.
I added something new to The List last season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me, and this rank will likely conflict with our weekly SP To Stash article from Rudy Ropp, though we will be conferring each week.. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.
They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers as spec adds at the very least. Some guys aren’t here and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.
Colors: Green = Worthy of a stash.
Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 75,000+ word Top 400 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.
Let’s get to it.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
- These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.
- I barely moved pitchers inside the Top 40. There are a few exceptions (I think four arms in total?) and I mostly elected to be patient for another week or two after witnessing just one outing. But yes, I certainly feel like Nola, Musgrove, Ober, King, should be lower, while Miller, Peralta, Pivetta, Javier should be higher, etc.
Tier 1 – The Remaining Aces
You know they are aces.
1. Corbin Burnes – Still in a great situation.
2. Zack Wheeler – Stupid grand slam ruining his start…he’s up 1.5 ticks!
3. Pablo López – I know, the last few haven’t been as stellar, but the floor is too good.
4. Luis Castillo – Redemption start this week with 23 whiffs. Looks to be all clear now.
5. Tyler Glasnow – Health concerns have held him back, but those are diminished given the health concerns for everyone.
6. Cole Ragans – It’s hard not to look at his four-seamer numbers and wonder if it’s too hittable inside the zone, but HOT DANG is that repertoire still amazing. Pew pew pew.
7. Tarik Skubal – Skubal is giving us a slight worry with his velocity dip, especially when it came with fewer four-seamer whiffs. We shouldn’t act upon it yet, of course.
8. Freddy Peralta – He’s looking like the best pitcher in the majors. Only concern is a history of injury questions and volatility.
Tier 2 – AGA With Something To Prove
They have the AGA tag, though they all have a quirk that could mean they lose it by May.
9. Logan Webb – Without his slider earning whiffs, Webb is a reliable ace who doesn’t flirt with SP #1 potential.
10. George Kirby – He’s been too hittable with his secondaries as of late. Should get better (like his first start), we just need to see it.
11. Zac Gallen – Velocity is still down and the worry of last year’s workload affecting his health is still present.
12. Kevin Gausman – We all know Gausman deserves this fall with his weird velocity issues in concert with shoulder stiffness that delayed his season debut.
13. Max Fried – See? He’s not cooked y’all. WE BACK.
14. Aaron Nola – I’m not feeling great about Nola and I want to wait one more week at least before I’d move him to Tier 3.
15. Yoshinobu Yamamoto – If Yamamoto actually elevated his four-seamer, he’d become the stud you want. We need more consistency on his splitter and cutter, too.
16. Joe Ryan – Ryan is looking fantastic with his four-seamer upstairs + secondaries earning strikes in the zone (slider and splitter). Welcome back to the AGA crew.
17. Grayson Rodriguez – The team context is wonderful and he still has room to grow if he can properly wield his changeup.
18. Zach Eflin – We’re getting close to pushing him into Tier 3 alongside Musgrove, let’s wait it out one more week.
Tier 3 – We Expect Success Every Night
They don’t have the AGA tag and could earn it before June.
19. Shota Imanaga – Hey, are you able to work in a few more secondaries next time to ensure that you’re not just four-seamer reliant?
20. Logan Gilbert – A much better start this week, though I’m still waiting for Gilbert to showcase a night of precision across the board. It’s the final element to raise his floor high enough to AGA land.
21. Joe Musgrove – I feel it too. Musgrove isn’t looking like the guy we want him to be thus far and if he’s unable to do more with his full arsenal in his next outing, then he’ll take a stumble to Tier 4.
22. Chris Sale – Sale threw too many pitches over the heart of the plate and got shellacked this week. It shouldn’t be a regular thing.
23. Sonny Gray – He’s back! Be the Justin Steele we’re missing on our teams, k thx.
24. Jared Jones – Why are people saying Spencer Strider is out for the season? He’s right here.
25. Bailey Ober – Let’s just forget about that first start of the year, okay?
26. Cristian Javier – It was an absolute joy watching Javier feature his best four-seamer of the year and mix it not just with 61% strike breakers, but 67% strike changeups. This is the dude he’s supposed to be. Top 20 and an AGA tag await if he can replicate it.
27. Dylan Cease – We saw the cutter appear and it took my breath away. But seriously, there’s a new hope Cease can return to the Top 20 if that cutter and be the strike pitch he so desperately needs.
Tier 4 – So Dang Close To Greatness
I trust all these pitchers to produce this season while they also carry the ability to be more than an SP #3. Bryan Woo would be in this tier.
28. Yu Darvish – Hey Darvish, I love that you’re trying out everything in your arsenal. Please focus on some of them to find their prime locations, okay? I know, I had to deal with the Dodgers twice and the Cubs already. Yeah, that’s fair.
29. Michael King – Ignore the start of the year + the Dodgers. He’s a sturdy arm for your teams, especially when the slider comes back into form. In fact, his changeup is sublime right now and I’d expect it to stick around as that sweeper returns.
30. Jesús Luzardo – Luzardo is a Cherry Bomb like Cease – at such an elite level that you forget how unhealthy it is to take in so much sweet. That’s the real bomb. In all seriousness, Luzardo’s slider command is often fantastic but when it fails, he gets burned for it. Lots of ups-and-downs are ahead, though the end result should be in your favor.
31. Blake Snell – You’re stuck, aren’t you. Feel free to place Snell later in the rankings, though we know he’s going to better than what we saw in his last start. You signed up for this and it’s going to bliss when it clicks.
32. Garrett Crochet – As much as I doubted Crochet’s command + stuff, he’s put egg on my face. It would be silly not to rank him this high given how dominant he’s been. But 5 ER? You clearly didn’t watch that frame. He didn’t deserve it.
Tier 5 – Celebrating The Holly Days
This has stability among arms who are all kinds of fun. Gavin Williams would be here if activated today and Paul Skenes would be near the bottom of this tier if called up today.
33. Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi isn’t going to be a Top 20 stud, but his velocity is there and pitches for a strong offense.
34. Justin Verlander – He’s back y’all! Let’s hope it’s better than a 20% strikeout rate. Please. Should be a great ratios + Wins arm and hopefully a strikeout per inning.
35. Chris Bassitt – Yep, he’s Bassitt. But Ni—Nope. He’s Bassitt.
36. Merrill Kelly – Kelly has been the same guy as well. Just let it be.
37. Tanner Bibee – I’m a little concerned about Bibee after displaying worse overall command. I also think his heater should be located low instead of high (I know, wild!) but overall, he should be better than the last two outings. I’m not ready to completely give up here, not for a bit.
38. Aaron Civale – He’s been great out of the gate, but how real is this? He’s had a great strikeout rate since the trade to the Rays. Yeah, yeah. He’s not a stud, though. I love the slider focus + high sinkers, though. Fun stuff…especially if he can actually go over 130 frames this season.
39. José Berríos – Berríos has been nothing like The Great Undulator of old, boasting his best curve in a while. Let’s hope that sticks.
40. Jordan Montgomery – FINALLY. Yes, you may see JorMont down to Tier 8 or so eventually. But for now, we see him as a stable arm with a 20-25% strikeout rate.
41. Brayan Bello – His slider is a welcome addition and the sinker/change is still great.
Tier 6 – The Shooting Stars
I expect all of these arms to consistently go every five days and flirt with six frames, each with legit potential for a 25% strikeout rate, if not more in some cases. I may not love them, but you shouldn’t find a 12-teamer without them on a squad and for good reason.
42. Reid Detmers – Detmer’s new heater looks here to stay and I’m a fan of his changeup getting more action. I still have some skepticism about his secondaries for a full year, though it’s hard to deny the guy right now. I don’t care if I wasn’t in before the season, this is so wonderful.
43. Bryce Miller – I want to like Miller more, but I don’t see an improvement from last year. But the splitter! Sinkers! Breakers! Yeaaaaah, it was really just four-seamers last time, once again. Give me the goods and I’ll raise him. I just need to see it.
44. MacKenzie Gore – The dude is ridiculous and tweaked his mechanics to improve on everything in his arsenal. Two ticks more velocity with more iVB on the four-seamer. A sick cutter/slider. Better curve and changeup. HE’S SO DOPE. If only it weren’t the Nationals + we haven’t seen him perform at a high level for a while, including four-seamer precision upstairs that is still a little inconsistent. I’m a believer, clearly.
45. Ronel Blanco – I originally was down on Blanco for a few reasons: Expected limited time in the rotation + poor schedule in that time. Now that we’re past it (Brown and France should be behind him at this point), Blanco shoots up the ranks. His change and slider are working well and are spotted low, executing the BSB with high heaters. Throw in the Astros team context and I’m so in.
46. Ryan Pepiot – He’s leaning into the BSB and I’m all for it. Now can you please make sure your changeup and slider are working as they should? K thx.
47. Kutter Crawford – Another solid outing for Crawford today, though there is a sense of “hey, is this going to stick around?” as he hasn’t wiped the floor with any of his pitches the year. There are moments with his four-seamer, kutter, sweeper, splitter, etc., but I haven’t seen any of them dominate across a full start. It makes me concerned that he doesn’t have that pitch to turn to when it gets rough.
48. Cristopher Sánchez – I have faith that Sánchez’s change will be in form far more often than not + the sinker coming in two ticks harder is a wonderful thing.
49. Yusei Kikuchi – Another start of Kikuchi favoring curves over changeups and I’m here for it. That’s the good version of Kikuchi.
Tier 7 – The Spork
This is a tier filled with electric arms that pack a punch like the tip of fork merged with the stable, reliability of a spoon. This is the worst Tier name I’ve had in ages.
50. Garrett Whitlock – Whitlock has his old extension and should be favoring his slider a little more. The strikeouts will come.
51. Reynaldo López – It’s a great team context and ReyLó has done nothing to pull us away. Solid fastball + breakers.
52. Luis Gil – Gil hasn’t had the strike rates on his secondaries yet, though it should come in time. Legit upside for 30% strikeout rate with 5/6 IP per start and a great team context. The walk rate will improve.
53. Nick Lodolo – Lodolo was excellent in his opening outing with one of the best curves we’ve ever seen from him + a major focus on his changeup. However, I worry about pitching in Cincy + if his fastball is good enough to set up that yacker + boasting a 50% CSW on curves isn’t sustainable.
54. Tanner Houck – We saw the floor of Houck over the weekend with a ton of pitches falling in the middle of the plate. He’s not as elite as the start of the year, nor the horrid command arm, either. Solid with a chance for more.
55. Hunter Greene – I prefer Lodolo over Greene given the breadth of the arsneal and less volatility in general, though both are great strikeout arms who could come with very digestable WHIP marks.
56. Jordan Hicks – His sinker is more reliable than I expected. Incredible ICR with a high strike rate, opening the door for a quick ascension up The List if he can wrangle his sweeper and splitter for consistent strikes.
Tier 8 – Plaid Shirts and a PBR
They could easily be anchors of your staff – both bad and good, with heavy HIPSTER risk. I personally don’t like having guys like these on my teams, but I recognize I was too harsh previously as I didn’t weigh the potential impact of it clicking high enough. Just be disciplined to move on if this doesn’t work early.
57. Marcus Stroman – Yep, he’s a solid Toby for a winning club.
58. Casey Mize – I see better days ahead for Mize as he’s currently in Purgatory. Once the slider becomes a reliable offering, his four-seamer can dominate at the top of the zone like we saw in the spring.
59. Nestor Cortes – Don’t expect Cortes to return to Top 30 SP form, but his heater is getting whiffs and the cutter + slider allow him to stay afloat for at least five frames, if not as many as eight like we saw last week.
60. Michael Wacha – His command was off last start. I don’t trust that to be a regular thing.
61. Jack Flaherty – Flaherty displayed both sides of the coin – games where his heaters get pummeled and games where he can escape with the heater in the zone. I imagine that fastball precision will improve while both his slider and curve have been fantastic.
62. Seth Lugo – He’s a safe Toby and may be held on your team all year.
Tier 9 – Is This An Ace?
This is the butterfly meme where we’re staring out our teams long enough, hoping one of them can save us from our IL-riddled squads.
63. Brady Singer – Yes, it’s a wonderful run. No, I don’t think the four-seamer is truly making him a new arm. Let’s hope this lasts and isn’t like one of the many runs that have tried to convince over the last four seasons.
64. Edward Cabrera – Cabrera is making his season debut and is already stretched out to 80 pitches. If his fastball can earn consistent strikes, his years of 10%+ walk rates may be behind him. Why would we expect that? It’s what he was doing all spring.
65. Carlos Rodón – It’s strange. His velocity is down, but he is ramping effectively during starts…and not getting four-seamer whiffs. Is he just a Toby now?
66. Kyle Harrison – I’ve been out on Harrison for ages, though his last outing was waaaaay different. Instead of curves, changeups were his primary secondary, locating comfortably at the bottom of the zone, while his four-seamer nailed the top third of the strikezone beautifully. Can he actually reproduce the BSB consistently? I’d love it.
67. Gavin Stone – It’s a great changeup, but I’m not sure everything else is all too great. The team context makes him worthwhile, at least for now. How long can he go in games? It’s not a massive ceiling to me at the moment.
68. Reese Olson – Olson looked rough last start with his heaters and now has a tough week ahead. However, the slider we saw last year hasn’t been around and there’s another gear to hit once that breaker returns.
Tier 10 – Sure, This Could Work
These are Toby types with a touch of intrigue.
69. Zack Littell – Littell is weird. I don’t like his four-seamer but his slider makes it work often. It’s a shrug and “sure, whatever” pitcher who should have a better offense behind him.
70. Ranger Suárez – Suárez has been on a roll and as long as he has a solid schedule, he should be rostered.
71. Jameson Taillon – I’m excited to watch Taillon make his season debut, though I’d wait a start to ensure he has his arsenal working as he wants it to. Look for high four-seamers, cutters to LHB, and many sweepers to RHB.
72. Martín Pérez – This is a Vargas Rule that you can hold onto as long as you want. Forever? Okay fine, just drop him when it starts falling apart.
73. Javier Assad – Assad’s stuff is pretty meh, but it’s kitchen sink enough that it’s working inside the zone. I don’t have a ton of faith it’ll last too long, especially without the strikeouts you’d want.
74. José Buttó – He’s performed incredibly well stepping in for Julio Teheran Trevor Megill and it’s hard to deny 16 whiffs against the Royals. Give it a shot – maybe his command is here to stay.
75. Brandon Pfaadt – His sweeper is great, the rest isn’t. It’s not my favorite play, but I won’t deny the possibility of growth as he regularly starts for a strong team.
76. Spencer Turnbull – It’s a four-seamer/sweeper combo for a winning club. Not my favorite in the slightest and schedule dependent, but helpful at the moment.
Tier 11 – Future Me Is A Fan
These arms who are showing promise but haven’t gotten us totally convinced they are worth a roster spot or are being dangled over the wire.
77. Ryne Nelson – He’s throwing 95+ with a great fastball and now pairs it with a low-90s cutter. I’m super intrigued if that holds this week.
78. Jordan Wicks – His “BSB approach with high heaters and changeups can work, though he may need his cutter/slider to get going for him to become a must-pick-up
79. Hunter Brown – He was terrible against the Royals. Seriously, it was painful to watch and he deserved most of the damage. It’s totally possible he swings back around, but hot dang, that was bad.
80. Trevor Rogers – I can Rogers improving with his slider and changeup over time, we just haven’t seen him overwhelm quite yet.
81. James Paxton – We may be near the end of our time with Paxton after he walked eight against the Padres. There’s still a decent Win chance here (and he won’t walk eight again), but it’s okay to move on to other options.
82. Mitch Keller – He’s still a Cherry Bomb I can’t trust and don’t want to be stuck with.
83. Triston McKenzie – McKenzie has looked rough out of the gate, boasting a fastball around 90/91 mph and failing to earn curveball whiffs. I’m scared, but also recognize that this could turn around in a heartbeat.
84. Frankie Montas – He’s a Cherry Bomb without the sweetest of ceilings, especially with Cincinnati as his home. Less extreme than Keller, so go with what you feel.
85. Luis Severino – I’m so happy Severino is throwing his cutter again, but can you figure out your slider and four-seamer too?
86. Charlie Morton – You have him for Wins and strikeouts. Good luck, I don’t think it’s worth the pain.
87. Ryan Weathers – His four-seamer is holding its velocity and iVB, but I need to see more from the breaker and changeup. He could get bounced by Meyer in two weeks.
88. Graham Ashcraft – The cutter command is still in question and he’s only safe against streamable offenses.
89. Louie Varland – I see the promise in Varland…if he can get his four-seamer upstairs. We’re not there yet and it may take another week…if they keep him in the rotation. Stop using ellipsis like that. I’M SORRY.
Tier 12 – Fine, You Need Some Streams & Other Randos
Sneaky starters who could find you some wins or quality starts but shouldn’t be held with adoration in your 12-teamers.
90. Logan Allen – Allen gets the Athletics this week and is doing better things with his fastball. Don’t let a three-run shot to Aaron Judge sway you.
91. Clarke Schmidt – I see Schmidt as a Toby for a winning club…in time. He gets a pair of good matchups ahead where I hope he finds the cutter & sweeper polish he needs.
92. Dane Dunning – He gets the Tigers this week and that’s worthy of a stream.
93. Andrew Abbott – I’m not sure how much longer he sticks in the Reds rotation with Lodolo back + his four-seamer and breakers aren’t inspiring confidence. He needs to find the polish he had when he made his debut last summer.
94. Jon Gray – A great matchup this week as I still don’t trust Gray outside of his slider.
95. Lance Lynn – He gets Oakland. Strikeouts + Win maybe? Don’t let it last.
96. Paul Blackburn – I know he hasn’t allowed an ER yet, but let’s be serious. Two terrible lineups are included + Blackburn’s cutter and changeup are not enough to make this actually work as he struggles to get Wins.
Tier 13 – Gen Z
Young arms getting shots at the moment who are likely not going to stick around but hey, you never know.
97. José Soriano – I dig the hard sinker + curveball from Soriano, not to mention the upper-90s heat on his four-seamer. Not a bad shot to take against the Rays this week.
98. Ben Brown – I’m not sure if we see a whole lot more of Brown given Taillon’s return, but maybe Hendricks gets the axe instead? I’m also not the biggest fan of his two-pitch mix, as the heater doesn’t have good shape + I don’t believe he’s a 65%+ strike rate guy on either offering. (For reference, Jared Jones is over 70% strikes on both his fastball and slider).
99. Nick Nastrini – I’m excited to watch Nastrini in his MLB debut, who is 92-94 on his four-seamer with a slider and changeup he trusts. As one of the main pieces of the Lance Lynn deal, he’s worth a look.
100. Jonathan Cannon – And one day after Nastrini is Cannon, who is s sinker/cutter arm in the low 90s. Not the greatest set of skills we look for in a prospect, unfortunately, but hey, you never know.
Honorable Mentions
You’re getting little blurbs on everyone else with a rotation spot this week. This is in team order, not rank.
Tyler Wells (BAL) – It was tough removing Wells this week as he gets the Twins + Angels up next. We just haven’t seen him come through yet and it’s better to chase something else. He’ll come around in time.
Dean Kremer (BAL) – His splitter disappeared in his recent outing and there’s not enough trust to hold onto him.
Cole Irvin (BAL) – Maybe his velocity jumps back up with proper command like it did in the spring.
Cooper Criswell (BOS) – Pivetta is hurt and Criswell took his temporary spot. Not a long term play and I imagine the Sawx will limit him in starts as he’s sinker/sweeper focused.
Tyler Alexander (TBR) – He has the fifth spot with Bradley and Baz hurting, but does it matter?
Yariel Rodríguez (TOR) – He took a rotation spot over Francis, though he tossed just under 70 pitches and sported a fastball/slider mix that doesn’t quite do enough for me to chase at the moment, especially with the limited pitch count.
Bowden Francis (TOR) – Displaced by Yariel entering the rotation. He got the vulture Win in relief (and didn’t perform well), suggesting there is still some value here as the piggy-back to Rodríguez in the short term. We don’t go for these.
Erick Fedde (CHW) – I actually like Fedde as a decent streaming option this year. Now isn’t the time to hold onto him with the Royals up next.
Michael Soroka (CHW) – He could very well turn into a Toby as the year progresses. Right now, he doesn’t have the command to justify the low Win gamble.
Chris Flexen (CHW) – This ain’t the Toby you want as the White Sox are not going to Win many games this year. Meanwhile, Flexen will be climbing the mountain as he does everything possible to flirt with a 20% strikeout rate.
Mike Clevinger (CHW) – I hate that Chicago signed him and I personally don’t want to think of him at all. If you want to take a shot, you do you. I don’t.
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) – His velocity is down and even against a mediocre team, I wouldn’t to chance it.
Xzavion Curry (CLE) – We got a start from Curry before The List came out and it’s great to see Curry take advantage of the opportunity across five frames. He’s a desperate stream against the Athletics, though I don’t love the arsenal at all. Not for me.
Alec Marsh (KCR) – He earned the fifth spot and if you’re still thinking about that 11 strikeout game from last year, you’ll be lucky to get those in his first two outings combined.
Kenta Maeda (MIN) – He’s a Cherry Bomb who simply hasn’t been sweet enough to justify the low floor. He’d be on The List this week if he weren’t facing the Rangers.
Chris Paddack (MIN) – Nearly put him on The List as he located heaters upstairs well, while tossing tempting split-changes (even if they returned a sub 50% strike rate). A date with the Dodgers makes him not worth your time for now.
Griffin Canning (LAA) – Velocity is down two ticks and he’s not missing enough bats.
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) – Ditto, but slider and changeup instead.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) – He’s a desperate streamer.
Joe Boyle (OAK) – His stuff is so good. His command is so bad. Don’t fall for guys who can’t locate (this is different than Snell, who misses with a purpose. Big difference than Boyle who literally aims for the middle of the plate with every pitch).
Ross Stripling (OAK) – Stripling doesn’t have enough upside.
Alex Wood (OAK) – Once we get proper data, I wonder if we’ll see anything pop out for Wood. I highly doubt it.
JP Sears (OAK) – His four-seamer is great on paper, but he hasn’t be able to be his best self yet. We’ll likely have a fun run with Sears at some point.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) – He’s subbing in for the hurt Bryan Woo, sporting a sinker/slider/change approach. It can work, though Hancock doesn’t look fully warm for the season yet. I’d take this slow and consider him as a potential Toby.
Andrew Heaney (TEX) – He’s the poster child of chaos.
Michael Lorenzen (TEX) – With Bradford on the IL, Lorenzen gets two starts this week. I’m not sure how stretched out he is, nor if his quality is enough to endorse a spot this week.
Darius Vines (ATL) – He’s a changeup focused arm for Atlanta who is a stop gap as Atlanta will find arms until they feel comfortable in AJ Smith-Shawver.
Adrian Houser (NYM) – It’s fastballs all day and sometimes it works.
Sean Manaea (NYM) – I don’t love his four-seamer + his secondaries aren’t coming together. There is a cutter now (sweet!) and I want to see him manipulate his full arsenal before trusting him against all but the bottom tier offenses.
José Quintana (NYM) – Not the worst streaming option when he’s locked in with his command, but I’m not ready to trust that.
A.J. Puk (MIA) – It’s been a massive disappointment as Puk’s four-seamer shape massively changed, making it far from the overpowering pitch I anticipated to see, even with the expected velocity drop.
Max Meyer (MIA) – He was demoted to Triple-A. Keep an eye on Meyer as he’s worth rostering when back in the rotation consistently for the Marlins. Not a “league winner”, but solid with his slider focus.
Josiah Gray (WSN) – He had some moments this spring, but it doesn’t look like he’s boasting any major changes to the repertoire. No thanks.
Patrick Corbin (WSN) – There’s a new cutter for both RHB and LHB that may actually make a difference this season. Sleeper for NL-Only..? Crazy, I know.
Trevor Williams (WSN) – #NeverTrevor
Mitchell Parker (WSN) – Makes his MLB debut on Monday night. We’ll take it from there. Probably don’t want him.
Jake Irvin (WSN) – He’s throwing a little harder and it’s still not a good fastball. His secondaries don’t do a whole lot either.
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) – It’s getting worse and that’s not a fun time for an 87 mph heater.
Nick Martinez (CIN) – I hope he’s actually starting and throwing at least 40% changeups while axing the dang four-seamer.
Aaron Ashby (MIL) – He made one start, wasn’t great, and is back in Triple-A. He came up and elected to move away from his slider, as well, while featuring diminished velocity. It’s unfortunate.
Colin Rea (MIL) – He looks to be starting for the Brewers and maybe that’s enough to warrant a stream here and there.
Joe Ross (MIL) – The Brewers could be going four-man the first turn and even if Ross was here, do you really want that?
Wade Miley (MIL) – He’s back from the IL and I’m waiting for him to go on a Vargas Rule run to put him back on The List. A deep streaming option.
Bailey Falter (PIT) – He’s been better than expected as of late, and maybe he holds a job with Gonzales’ injury.
Quinn Priester (PIT) – He’s expected to slot into the rotation for Gonzales, though it may not be for long with Skenes ready to pounce by the end of April.
Lance Lynn (STL) – The strikeout upside isn’t worth the volatility.
Miles Mikolas (STL) – There’s so little to chase here. You can do better.
Kyle Gibson (STL) – Maybe he has the slider working on a given night as a desperate streaming option. At least he has the leash to go six.
Steven Matz (STL) – Even hitting 97+ on his sinker over the weekend, Matz still failed to earn whiffs. This isn’t it.
Tommy Henry (ARI) – He’s in until Jordan Montgomery is ready to go or Eduardo Rodriguez is healthy and trust me, the Diamondbacks feel the same way too.
Kyle Freeland (COL) – COL story, bro.
Cal Quantrill (COL) – COL story, bro.
Dakota Hudson (COL) – COL story, bro.
Austin Gomber (COL) – COL story, bro.
Ryan Feltner (COL) – He actually has some intrigue with his four-seamer that should be a decent pitch upstairs, but his slider is more like a cutter that doesn’t get whiffs and there’s nothing else. Oh, and Coors n all.
Matt Waldron (SDP) – There was some consideration here as the SP #5 for the Padres, but it’s possible he pairs with Jhony Brito + his stuff speaks to a potential Toby and not much else.
Keaton Winn (SFG) – It seems like he could be ready to go, but a date with the Dodgers + Padres to kick off the season is a clear avoid for now.
SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES
| Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corbin BurnesT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 3 | Pablo López | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 4 | Luis Castillo | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 5 | Tyler Glasnow | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +4 |
| 6 | Cole Ragans | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 7 | Tarik Skubal | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 8 | Freddy Peralta | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +5 |
| 9 | Logan WebbT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | -3 |
| 10 | George Kirby | Aces Gonna Ace Ratio Focused | -5 |
| 11 | Zac Gallen | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 12 | Kevin Gausman | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -2 |
| 13 | Max Fried | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus Injury Risk | -1 |
| 14 | Aaron Nola | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 15 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | +1 |
| 16 | Joe Ryan | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 17 | Grayson Rodriguez | Aces Gonna Ace Team Context Effect | +1 |
| 18 | Zach Eflin | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | -1 |
| 19 | Shota ImanagaT3 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 20 | Logan Gilbert | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +3 |
| 21 | Joe Musgrove | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -1 |
| 22 | Chris Sale | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -1 |
| 23 | Sonny Gray | Ace Potential Ratio Focused Injury Risk | +1 |
| 24 | Jared Jones | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 25 | Bailey Ober | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +8 |
| 26 | Cristian Javier | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 27 | Dylan Cease | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | - |
| 28 | Yu DarvishT4 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -3 |
| 29 | Michael King | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -3 |
| 30 | Jesús Luzardo | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 31 | Blake Snell | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 32 | Garrett Crochet | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +9 |
| 33 | Nathan EovaldiT5 | Holly Quality Starts Injury Risk | +2 |
| 34 | Justin Verlander | Holly Quality Starts | +UR |
| 35 | Chris Bassitt | Holly Quality Starts | +1 |
| 36 | Merrill Kelly | Holly Quality Starts Team Context Effect | +1 |
| 37 | Tanner Bibee | Holly Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 38 | Aaron Civale | Holly Team Context Effect | - |
| 39 | José Berríos | Holly Quality Starts | +8 |
| 40 | Jordan Montgomery | Holly Quality Starts | +UR |
| 41 | Brayan Bello | Holly Quality Starts | +1 |
| 42 | Reid DetmersT6 | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 43 | Bryce Miller | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 44 | MacKenzie Gore | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +9 |
| 45 | Ronel Blanco | Spice Girl Team Context Effect | +10 |
| 46 | Ryan Pepiot | Spice Girl Team Context Effect | -6 |
| 47 | Kutter Crawford | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | -3 |
| 48 | Cristopher Sánchez | Spice Girl Quality Starts | +8 |
| 49 | Yusei Kikuchi | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 50 | Garrett WhitlockT7 | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | -5 |
| 51 | Reynaldo López | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside Team Context Effect | - |
| 52 | Luis Gil | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | - |
| 53 | Nick Lodolo | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +5 |
| 54 | Tanner Houck | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | -11 |
| 55 | Hunter Greene | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 56 | Jordan Hicks | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 57 | Marcus StromanT8 | Holly Quality Starts | -9 |
| 58 | Casey Mize | Holly Quality Starts | -8 |
| 59 | Nestor Cortes | Holly Quality Starts Injury Risk | +2 |
| 60 | Michael Wacha | Holly Quality Starts | +5 |
| 61 | Jack Flaherty | Holly Quality Starts | +5 |
| 62 | Seth Lugo | Holly Quality Starts | +6 |
| 63 | Brady SingerT9 | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | +13 |
| 64 | Edward Cabrera | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 65 | Carlos Rodón | Cherry Bomb Team Context Effect Injury Risk | -3 |
| 66 | Kyle Harrison | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +19 |
| 67 | Gavin Stone | Cherry Bomb Team Context Effect | -10 |
| 68 | Reese Olson | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | -14 |
| 69 | Zack LittellT10 | Toby Team Context Effect | - |
| 70 | Ranger Suárez | Toby Wins Bonus | +11 |
| 71 | Jameson Taillon | Toby Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 72 | Martín Pérez | Toby Ratio Focused | +24 |
| 73 | Javier Assad | Toby Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 74 | José Buttó | Toby Ratio Focused Rotation Spot Bonus | +UR |
| 75 | Brandon Pfaadt | Toby Team Context Effect | -8 |
| 76 | Spencer Turnbull | Toby Ratio Focused | +23 |
| 77 | Ryne NelsonT11 | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -3 |
| 78 | Jordan Wicks | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -5 |
| 79 | Hunter Brown | Cherry Bomb Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | -19 |
| 80 | Trevor Rogers | Cherry Bomb Rotation Spot Bonus | +2 |
| 81 | James Paxton | Cherry Bomb Team Context Effect Injury Risk | -11 |
| 82 | Mitch Keller | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 83 | Triston McKenzie | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -19 |
| 84 | Frankie Montas | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | +5 |
| 85 | Luis Severino | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 86 | Charlie Morton | Cherry Bomb Team Context Effect | -14 |
| 87 | Ryan Weathers | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -10 |
| 88 | Graham Ashcraft | Cherry Bomb Wins Bonus | +10 |
| 89 | Louie Varland | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -14 |
| 90 | Logan AllenT12 | Streaming Option Quality Starts | - |
| 91 | Clarke Schmidt | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | - |
| 92 | Dane Dunning | Streaming Option Team Context Effect | +UR |
| 93 | Andrew Abbott | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 94 | Jon Gray | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 95 | Lance Lynn | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 96 | Paul Blackburn | Streaming Option Ratio Focused | +1 |
| 97 | José SorianoT13 | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 98 | Ben Brown | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 99 | Nick Nastrini | Spice Girl Rotation Spot Bonus | +UR |
| 100 | Jonathan Cannon | Spice Girl Rotation Spot Bonus | +UR |
Labels Legend
I’ve updated the tags for 2024, now allowing myself to tag a player in one three groups.
Overall Label
Aces Gonna Ace
Ace Potential
Holly
Toby
Cherry Bomb
Spice Girl
Vargas Rule
Streaming Option
Bonus Stat
QS Bonus
Wins Bonus
Strikeouts Bonus
Ratios Bonus
Rotation Spot Bonus
Team Context Effect
Special Tag
Stash Option
Injury Risk
Playing Time Question
A quick legend for those unfamiliar with our odd terms at Pitcher List:
Holly = Solid ratios, constant 6 IP & a 20-25% strikeout rate
Toby = Borderline arm for your 12-teamers who has a 20% or lower strikeout rate. They barely do enough.
Cherry Bomb = A volatile starting pitcher. Usually with strikeout upside and low ratio floor.
Spice Girl = Young arms who have massive ceilings or could be off your team in a few weeks.
Vargas Rule = A pitcher we’re picking up now given he’s on a roll, but we drop once he stumbles again.
Team Context Effect = Either ranked higher or lower due to team context (Coors, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta, Cincy, etc.)
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)
LOL oh Nick.
Gavin Stone only took a perfect game into the 6th to be demoted 11 spots by you the following Monday.
Ouch.
Spots are always relative! Stone himself didn’t move down 11 spots, others are climbing, too.
I watched that myself – we’ve seen many pitchers have five frames that work for them and I’m more about what skills they exhibit. Stone still has questions about his full arsenal in my book, while other pitchers are showcasing more promise for the full year.
I hope I’m wrong!
Where’s Maeda?
My apologies! Just added him in the HM section and did a full pass of any names I missed.
Hey Nick! I think it would be helpful for the Injured Player’s List to put something like (OFS – Out for Season) next to player’s names who won’t be returning this year. It would aid in figuring out stash candidates and generally making that table more helpful. Just food for thought!
Great idea! I’ll add that moving forward. Thanks!
Tyler Wells not even worth an honorable mention. Drop in a 15 teamer?
Ah! I can sometimes overlook adding someone to Honorable Mentions who I removed this week. He was a fringe arm!
He’s a matchup streamer and he’s worthwhile in 15-teamers against the Twins and Angels next. We just need to see him cruise a little more first for 12-teamers.
Ashby was optioned to AAA on April 9 and has had one horrible start there since.
My apologies! Just updated him in the HM section and did a full pass of any names I missed.
DL Hall completely disappeared?
What tier would you consider adding Jack Leiter too if he was to stick in the rotation? Obviously not a lot to go on at the moment.
Thank you. I really appreciate your work.
I struggle with red/green colorblindness and it’s really hard to distinguish the labels. Would it be possible to add a stripe or shape inside the box so I can tell them apart?
Thank you and I appreciate the work!
Curious on this one too
Thank you for your response! Guess it ended up not mattering as he headed to the IL with an elbow. ☹️
I leverage your rankings and streamers all the time, especially when I notice you are out ahead of other experts. But I have noticed your lack of faith in Andrew Abbott last year and this year. You make it sound like he’s about to lose his spot, but his performance through 4 starts has been pretty good. 98th? Seems harsh.