Fantasy Baseball Category Power Rankings 7/19

Whether it’s early in the season, the middle of July, or late in the year, it’s always good to know where you stand in your Roto league.

Of course, perusing your league’s standings accomplishes that fairly quickly. However, numbers can often be misleading. Is your team producing at the level it should be as a league leader compared to the vast majority of other Roto leagues?

Are there underperforming players on your team, or available via waivers each week that could help you significantly in specific, or multiple, categories moving forward? This column aims to, and will, answer all those questions on a weekly basis, regardless of league size.

Essentially, it’s an almanac for Roto leagues and NFBC or TGFBI leagues, showing you not only the watermarks your team should be hitting category-wise to be truly elite but also the specific players that will help you get there. What’s more, it’ll also cover the top performers in each category, as well as some under-the-radar options for each metric as well.

 

Notes

 

A couple of quick notes before we begin. For metrics like ERA, WHIP, batting average, and on-base percentage, only qualified or close to qualified pitchers and hitters (respectively) were considered, especially at this time of year with smaller sample sizes running rampant.

Additionally, all rostered rate numbers are via FantasyPros as of Monday. Furthermore, in part due to NFBC leagues, all stats (as well as the rostered data) are via the previous week’s Sunday.

All the data in terms of Roto league production is from last year’s numbers.

 

Where You Should Be Producing In Each Category

 

Below is data for both 15-team and 12-team Roto leagues from last season and the average statistical totals that each placed team finished with. This is for the entirety of a season. Basically, if you want to do well in these two formats, these are the season-long watermarks to shoot for.

There’s also SGP data for both 15-team and 12-team formats.

Before we get any further, a massive thank you to Pitcher List Director of Data Analytics and Research Kyle Bland for getting a hold of the data.

And now, without further ado, the 15-team data, which comes from 2023 TGFBI leagues:

 

15-Team Leagues

 

(Quick reminder, the far left-hand column is where the team finished in the standings.)

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And here’s the 15-team, SGP data:

 

 

12-Team Leagues

 

 

And now for the 12-team, SGP data:

 

 

Category Power Rankings

 

Batting Average (AVG)

 

Leaders

 

 

Of Note: Luis Arraez.

It’s a surprise to no one to see Luis Arraez show up on this list, though how the infielder performs in San Diego is something to keep an eye on. Specifically, how he fares at Petco Park. Arraez is batting just .241 with a .268 with a home run and a stolen base in 138 plate appearances in San Diego this season.

Arraez has never been a consistent power or stolen base threat, obviously, but the average is both concerning and something to watch moving forward. If it continues to weigh down the infielder’s batting average, his fantasy ceiling would take a considerable hit.

 

Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues

 

 

Of Note: Amed Rosario.

Rosario isn’t striking out all that much, which is good. His 17.0% strikeout rate sits in the 17th percentile league-wide. Because of that, both Rosario’s average (.308) and xBA (.273) are quality numbers.

But with just a 4.6% barrel rate and a 37.8% hard-hit rate, it seems unlikely that Rosario will reach double digits in home runs as he did in three consecutive full seasons in 2019, 2021, and 2022. The lack of power limits Rosario fantasy-wise to that of a deep league option in leagues with 14 or more teams. Furthermore, with just a 2.8% walk rate, the veteran’s fantasy ceiling in leagues where on-base percentage isn’t as high.

 

On-Base Percentage (OBP)

 

Leaders

 

 

Of Note: Christian Yelich.

Yelich jumps towards the top of the leaderboard due to having qualified plate appearance-wise. The 32-year-old has once again been excellent this season, batting .326 with a .412 on-base percentage, 11 home runs, and 21 stolen bases in 302 first-half plate appearances.

What’s particularly of note here is that if the season ended today, Yelich’s xwOBA (.378) and xwOBAcon (.426) would both be his best numbers (in those categories) in a full season since 2019 when he finished second in MVP voting.

He’s a surefire top-25 (or better) overall fantasy player the rest of the way.

 

Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues

 

 

Of Note: Rob Refsnyder.

You can probably make the argument that Rob Refsnyder is one of, if not the most underrated fantasy outfielders in the sport at the moment. The 33-year-old is batting .302 with a .397 on-base percentage, four home runs, and a stolen base in 190 plate appearances this season, logging a 140 wRC+ in the process.

And while a .398 BABIP might not be too sustainable, it’s worth noting that the outfielder hit .307 with a .394 oBABIP in 177 plate appearances during the 2021 season. Furthermore, it looks like this season’s production might just be reasonably sustainable. What with a .350 xwoBA, a .413 xwOBAcon, and a 9.4% barrel rate.

Realistically speaking, he probably shouldn’t be qualifying for this leaderboard with those kinds of numbers, but if he’s available in your league, now’s the time for fantasy managers to add the veteran outfielder.

 

 

Home Runs (HR)

 

Leaders

 

 

Of Note: Shohei Ohtani.

In his past 125 plate appearances, Shohei Ohtani has accumulated the kind of counting stats (12 home runs and eight stolen bases) that would be a solid season’s worth of stats for some.

The slugger is also batting .343 with a .456 on-base percentage, a 233 wRC+ (!), and a .441 ISO (!) during that stretch. Even without his pitching production, he might just be fantasy baseball’s best player.

 

Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues

 

 

Of Note: Paul DeJong.

Things haven’t been quite as productive for Paul DeJong as of late. Granted we’re dealing with a smaller sample size in terms of plate appearances, but the veteran is batting .158 with a .233 on-base percentage and just one home run in his last 43 plate appearances, logging a 7.7% barrel rate in the process.

The power production here is something to watch. DeJong has enjoyed a solid season for Chicago, collecting 16 home runs and a 9.8% barrel rate in 329 plate appearances. However, he’s also batting just .226 with a .274 on-base percentage and a 31.6% strikeout rate, so if the power numbers dwindle, it’ll be hard to start DeJong with regularity in fantasy lineups.

 

Runs Scored (R)

 

Leaders

 

 

Of Note: Ketel Marte.

Is Ketel Marte fantasy’s best second baseman at the moment? With Mookie Betts on the injured list, it sure looks that way. Marte has been nothing short of excellent at the plate for the Diamondbacks this season, hitting .292 with a .362 on-base percentage, 19 home runs, and six stolen bases in 409 plate appearances.

He also ended the first half ranking in the 93rd percentile or better in xSLG (.522), xwOBA (.384), xBA (.302), and hard-hit rate (53.4%) while logging a 10.1% barrel rate and just a 17.1% strikeout rate.

 

Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues

 

 

Of Note: Ezequiel Tovar.

Tovar continues to strike out a bit too much, but he’s done well from a counting stat standpoint (what with 14 home runs and four stolen bases) to warrant being added in far more fantasy leagues. He also continues to thrive on the road, hitting .284 with 11 of his 14 home runs away from Coors Field.

 

RBI

 

Leaders

 

 

Of Note: José Ramírez and Josh Naylor.

Both Ramirez and Naylor have been key in Cleveland’s lineup ranking in the top 10 league-wide in runs scored. And while both are enjoying strong seasons, their form at the plate has helped elevate the fantasy ceiling of the lineup, particularly hitters like Andrés Giménez, David Fry, and Steven Kwan.

 

Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues

 

 

Of Note: Shea Langeliers.

That Shea Langeliers continues to show up on and qualify for these 50% or fewer lists is a bit on the puzzling side of things.

Yes, he could be playing in a more fantasy-friendly lineup or on a more fantasy-friendly team, but the power potential is just too much to ignore fantasy-wise. Just 12 qualified batters have logged a higher barrel rate than Langeliers so far.

Put another way, here are just a few players with a lower barrel rate: Witt Jr., Rafael Devers, Corey Seager, Austin Riley, Teoscar Hernández, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Tucker, and Yordan Alvarez.

 

Stolen Bases (SB)

 

Leaders

 

 

Of Note: Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr. had a great fantasy season last season. What with a .276 average, a .319 on-base percentage in 694 plate appearances, as well as 30 home runs and 49 stolen bases. Yeah, those last two numbers aren’t shabby at all.

But he might be having an even better fantasy season this year.

The 24-year-old has quickly established himself as a top three (or five depending on how you value players) fantasy option this year, batting .323 with a .369 on-base percentage, 16 home runs, and 22 stolen bases. And it’s not just the surface-level numbers. He ranks in the 91st percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, average exit velocity, xSLG, xwOBA, and xBA. And oh yeah, he’s striking out just 16.7% of the time.

If the season ended today and fantasy drafts for next season started tomorrow, Witt Jr. would be one of the early favorites to be selected first.

 

Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues

 

 

Of Note: Dylan Moore.

An intriguing potential option for home run and stolen base production, Moore has struggled lately, batting just .227 with a .261 on-base percentage and a 44 wRC+ in 23 plate appearances since July 1. Still, he stole four bases in that span and has posted a barrel rate of 12.9% or higher in three of the last four seasons.

His batting average production, particularly with a .199 xBA and a 27.8% strikeout rate, isn’t going to be particularly high, but as far as fantasy upside plays go in deeper leagues, there are few better or with more upside than Dylan Moore.

 

Pitchers

 

Strikeouts (K)

 

Leaders

 

 

Of Note: Hunter Greene.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Hunter Greene has been decidedly better away from the launch pad that is Great American Ballpark, logging a 2.53 road ERA, a 3.51 road FIP and holding batters to a .272 slugging percentage and a .258 wOBA away from home.

But, he’s been similarly solid at home, seeing his home ERA sit at 3.72 with nearly identical strikeout and walk percentages.

A slightly more pitcher-friendly home stadium would probably be ideal, but it hasn’t stopped Greene from both enjoying a breakout season in 2024 and establishing himself as a frontline fantasy starter.

 

Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues

 

 

Of Note: Yusei Kikuchi.

Kikuchi is certainly a name to watch heading into the trade deadline. Of course, that is if the Toronto Blue Jays start trading away veterans.

A trade to a contender, and perhaps some positive regression, would do wonders for the fantasy ceiling of a player who has just four pitcher wins and a 4.42 ERA in 20 starts and 106 innings, but also a 3.68 FIP for a Blue Jays team that has struggled mightily to score runs at times.

Adding Kikuchi in advance of a potential real-life trade (again, if the Blue Jays start to trade away veterans) is the kind of ahead-of-time, under-the-radar move that can pay serious dividends down the line this season for fantasy managers.

 

ERA

 

Leaders

 

 

Of Note: Corbin Burnes.

Jameson Taillon, more on him shortly, and the Cubs have a relatively tough start to the second half where fantasy matchups are concerned.

It’s almost the opposite for Corbin Burnes. Of course, you’re probably starting Burnes every single game, because why wouldn’t you? He’s one of the five best pitchers in the league. But his upcoming slate is particularly fantasy-friendly. Assuming Baltimore’s rotation continues uninterrupted and without changes, Burnes’ first five starts after the break will be at Texas, at Miami, at home against Toronto, away to Cleveland, and away to Tampa Bay. Texas has been more middle of the pack this year, and Cleveland is in the top 10 in runs scored, but Miami, Toronto, and Tampa Bay are all in the bottom six in the league in runs scored after the first half.

 

Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues

 

 

Of Note: Jameson Taillon.

Taillon has enjoyed a quality bounce-back season with the Cubs, pitching to a 3.10 ERA, a 3.81 FIP and 75 strikeouts compared to 18 walks and 12 home runs allowed in 93 innings.

He’s very much worth adding, and 43% seems a little bit on the low side for a rostered rate for him, despite the strikeout totals not being overwhelming.

Still, after adding him, it might be prudent to keep Taillon on fantasy benches for the first few turns of the rotation after the break. The Cubs open up with consecutive series against the Diamondbacks and Brewers at home before six games on the road in Kansas City (three) and Cincinnati (three). Not exactly an ideal fantasy stretch for a starting pitcher.

 

Wins (W)

 

Leaders

 

 

Of Note: Brayan Bello.

There are a number of pitchers in this column (minor spoilers ahead!) who look like candidates for fantasy managers to trade away for a variety of different factors.

Bello falls into that category as well. And while he’s done well to induce grounders at a high rate, something that certainly helps when half of his starts come at Fenway Park, a repeat in terms of pitcher-win consistency in the second half seems unlikely as long as Bello’s ERA (5.32), FIP (4.60) and barrel rate (8.3%) all stay reasonably high.

 

Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues

 

 

Of Note: Alec Marsh.

Marsh is probably a bit better than his 4.57 ERA would suggest, what with a 4.25 FIP, though he’s struggled to limit both grounders (with a 37.8% ground ball rate) and barrels (allowing batters to log a 10.3% barrel rate against him) so far.

Still, the 26-year-old has rattled off seven pitcher wins in 17 starts for the contending Royals and should continue to provide solid pitcher-win production moving forward as long as his run-prevention metrics hover around the 4.00 mark.

 

Quality Starts (QS)

 

Leaders

 

 

Of Note: José Berríos.

Berrios has so far outperformed some of his unideal underlying metrics (notably a 5.13 FIP, a 17.8% strikeout rate, and a 42.7% hard-hit rate) to post quality starts in 60% of his starts so far.

Given the nature of those numbers, as well as the fact that he ranks in the 20th percentile or lower in hard-hit rate, strikeout rate, whiff rate, xERA, and xBA, a repeat performance in the second half might not be feasible. Now might be the time to trade the veteran in redraft leagues while his ERA (4.01) remains reasonably low.

 

Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues

 

 

Of Note: Matt Waldron.

Waldron hasn’t had the most successful time of it lately, allowing 10 earned runs in his last 17.1 innings, striking out just 10 batters in the process. Though truth be told, there are plenty of easier three-start fantasy stretches than pitching away to Boston and then at home to Arizona and Atlanta.

Waldron is still sporting a 3.71 ERA and a 3.87 FIP in 106.2 innings on the season, and given his ability to limit hard contact (with a 32.7% hard-hit rate) and the fact that he pitches in spacious Petco Park half the time, it’s enough to keep the 27-year-old firmly on the fantasy radar as a solid rotation option in most leagues.

If he was dropped to waivers in your league, he qualifies as a priority waiver wire addition this week.

 

Saves (SV)

 

Leaders

 

 

Of Note: Trevor Megill.

This seems like a last call situation of sorts to move Megill from a fantasy trade value standpoint, what with Devin Williams making rehab appearances.

Of course, it’s possible that Milwaukee could opt to ease Williams back into high-leverage work once he returns, thus opening up perhaps a few more save chances for Megill.

The Brewers’ current closer isn’t someone to necessarily drop given how effective he’s been this season, the positive impact he can have on weekly ERA and WHIP totals, and the possibility for ancillary saves.

Still, if you’re looking to trade him as a fantasy closer, this might be your last real chance.

Megill, for what it’s worth, probably has a bit more trade value in Roto leagues given the uncertainty of his end-of-season save total.

 

Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues

 

 

Of Note: Trade Candidates.

Just like with Megill, there are a number of players on this list who might not be closing full-time (or even serving as a top ancillary option) in a few weeks given the nature of the trade deadline. Neris, Beeks, Kopech, Green, and Garcia all fall into that category at the moment.

All should maintain reasonably solid fantasy value and upside in saves+holds leagues, but now might be the time to consider trades involving the quintet if there are managers in your league in desperate need of saves.

 

WHIP

 

Leaders

 

 

Of Note: Garrett Crochet.

Crochet’s innings and how they are managed the rest of the year figures to be a significant storyline. The breakout fantasy ace has thrown four and two innings, respectively, in his last two starts. Still, unlike most of the pitchers on this list, he’d see a significant jump in both fantasy value and ceiling if he’s traded to a contending team. Provided he stays in the rotation, that is.

 

Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues

 

 

Of Note: Drew Thorpe.

Traded twice in the past year, first in the Juan Soto, Yankees blockbuster and then to Chicago in the Dylan Cease, Thorpe has enjoyed a solid start to life in a White Sox uniform, pitching to a 3.58 ERA in 32.2 innings. He’s struck out just 5.23 batters per nine innings and is sporting a 4.97 FIP, but the 23-year-old has also been excellent in limiting quality contact, holding batters to a 5.1% barrel rate and a 32.7% hard-hit rate.

And while the run-prevention and strikeout numbers are a bit unideal in places, it’s worth noting that (in such a small sample size) some of it might be impacted by Thorpe’s second-career start. The rookie allowed eight runs, seven earned runs, five walks, and a home run in 3.1 innings on the road to the Arizona Diamondbacks while failing to strike out a batter. Thorpe has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all of his other five starts, with at least four strikeouts in four of those outings.

He’s probably not going to continue posting pitcher wins in half of his starts, as he has in six starts this season, but there’s definite deeper league streaming appeal here in the right matchups.