Hitter List 7/12: Top 150 Hitters – Week 16 Fantasy Baseball 2023

Let’s get some basics out of the way regarding how to interpret these rankings. None of this stuff should come as any major surprise, but it never hurts to provide background:

I would recommend not paying super close attention to the specific ranks of each player, and honing in more on the respective tiers that they’re in. Each tier represents a grouping of players that I think could arguably perform at a similar level, and/or carry similar levels of risk in terms of injury concerns or playing time obstacles. If Player X is ranked at #55 and Player Y is ranked at #65, but they’re in the same tier, it means that I personally like Player X a lot better, but think there’s a valid argument to be made for Player Y performing just as well.

I take rankings like this as more of an art than a science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their own biases, strategic philosophies, determinations of risk, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. Jon’s way of evaluating and ranking players has worked out well for Jon (and me) over the years, but it might not be a great fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your league mates’ player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could it’d be weird. In a bad way.

Yes, these ranks vary from the official PL positional rankings that I also developed in the off-season. That’s because these are only mine – no input from others. This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.

I’m doing my best to use 5 starts or 10 appearances as the threshold for positional eligibility. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions, but once those eligibilities are earned I’ll add them in. This is just a maintenance thing and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!

To keep things in the same ilk, here are a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:

Stolen bases are losing value in a hurry, at least on a per-stolen-base basis. In 2022, zero players stole 10 bases in the first month of the season. In 2023, that number was six. Almost twice as many players picked up three steals in the first month of 2023 compared to 2022. In short, stealing 20 bases in 2023 doesn’t add the value it did in 2022. Steals are much more streamable now.
So what am I doing with that conclusion? Back in 2022 and earlier, a projection of five or 10 stolen bases really mattered as finding those five or 10 steals was not only impactful to the standings, but it was difficult. It still impacts the standings, sure, but it’s no longer difficult. Five or 10 steals in 2022 is more like 10 or 15 steals in 2023 in terms of scarcity and procurement.

If I want to get some insight on whether what I’m seeing is new or if it’s just normal fluctuation, I’d use my favorite tool—the rolling chart. which I’ll also reference as appropriate. You can also get rolling charts from sources like FanGraphs or Baseball Savant. If you have any questions about how to do that or how to read these charts, reach out to me!

No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), lineup context, and the skills we can measure using tools such as our PLV Hitter Attributes. I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators. Unlike Nick, I’ll also look at other rankings as I prepare my own to feel how my colleagues value certain players, positions, or stats. I recommend trying as many of these things as you can until you find what you like.
Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.

On a similar note, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.
Anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 to 100 at-bats regardless of true talent. Heck, it could even last a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which of these will be true until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends give us hints.
If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments!

Ranking Notes

Check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast featuring Scott Chu and Joe Gallina, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!

TIER 1

Once again, no changes.

Welcome to the top of the tier, Mookie Betts! Despite the disappointing performance at the Home Run Derby, Mookie has been a fantasy all-star to say the least. His 26 home runs have him on pace to set a career high for a second consecutive season (he hit 35 in 2022) and Mookie is all but certain to clear 110 runs scored and 100 RBI as well. The real kicker, though, is the fantastic position eligibility — Mookie now qualifies at second, shortstop, and the outfield, and with four more starts at shortstop he’ll bring that eligibility into virtually all formats in 2024. No other player in the top tiers brings this type of versatility, and it’s extremely valuable when you’re trying to cover for injuries as it allows you to be more flexible when scouring the wire. That, combined with Mookie’s fantastic floor and ceiling, makes him worthy of being at the top of Tier 2.

Luis Robert Jr. apparently had a calf issue and sat out of the All-Star Game, but I’m going to try not to be worried until or unless he misses actual games. The health risk is extreme, but so is the ceiling.
Yordan Alvarez stayed where he was near the top of this tier because we know that he’ll begin a rehab assignment after the Break.
We preached patience with Manny Machado because he slumps every year and turns it around. I hope you kept the faith.
Aaron Judge takes a tiny tumble because of the lack of clarity around when he will return.
While the ranking didn’t really change, I did move Christian Yelich up a tier. He looks healthy and extremely solid for your teams so far.

Elly De La Cruz has too much performance risk to move up into Tier 4, but being ranked even this high is extremely impressive.
Don’t read that much into Austin Riley’s fall — it was more about me wanting to move the other players up. He’s looked much better lately.

I still think Kyle Schwarber has a hot streak or two in him, but I now question how long they could last after the previous one was so short.
Christian Walker has been better than I previously realized.

TIER 7

Jose Altuve has hit the shelf again, though the injury is being described as “mild”. Hopefully his body can hold up after sustaining all these injuries, as multiple injuries in a season could lead to reduced performance.
The strikeouts for Josh Jung are still a little high, but the reason I didn’t drop him too far down this list is that the guy can flat-out rake. Jung has enough raw talent to stay above water while he adapts to a full season in the majors. Our metrics suggest that the issue has been a drop in both Decision Value and Contact Ability (but mostly the former), and I believe Jung can bring that closer to the MLB average as time goes on.

Luis Arraez would be two tiers higher in a points league and maybe a tier higher in a league that counts total bases, as all those singles and doubles would count for more than they do in other formats. In category leagues, though, the mediocre counting stats and lack of power and speed really cap his ceiling.

TIER 8

If you’re frustrated with Bryan Reynolds, know that I am too. I think he’ll improve this season, but he’s already fallen quite a bit from my initial preseason rankings.
I know everyone wants to cut Daulton Varsho, but the odds that there’s a catcher who will be better on the wire are really low. The prolonged slump has been extremely disheartening, but Varsho remains a top-ten catcher on the season so far in standard formats. If you’re extremely desperate and William Contreras is out there, I wouldn’t try that hard to stop you, but that’s about as low as I’d go. The upside is just too high with Varsho’s power, speed, and playing time.

TIER 9

I don’t know how good Lane Thomas really is, as he’s already exceeded my expectations of him for all of 2023. Thomas is pulling the ball a lot more than he has in past years, which does explain the current results (confirmed by the fact that our Pitcher List expected stats that account for direction are more favorable than Baseball Savant’s, though not by that much).
Varsho isn’t the only catcher drafted early who is having a rough time, as Salvador Perez is in the same boat. Once again, though, you can’t drop him.

TIER 10

Jordan Walker continues to get playing time, and more importantly, he continues to exchange grounders for fly balls. That’s what I’m most interested in the short term, as it’s the key to unlocking his power in the big leagues. Walker has really turned it on in this regard in July, and I’m looking forward to seeing how it turns out.

So this is part one of Anthony Rizzo’s potential tumble, but it’s hard to ignore a guy with this long of a track record and who was so strong for the first two months of the season. The primary issue from a results perspective is that he’s not getting the ball in the air as he did early in the season (see the rolling chart below). If he can turn that around, Rizzo should be able to turn around the rest of the results as well.

TIER 11

Welcome back to the big leagues, Riley Greene! I’ve always been high on Greene and loved seeing him come out with a bang. Greene looked as good as he did before the injury, and as a result, I’m moving him back to roughly the same place on this list as he was prior to the injury.
Taylor Ward might be dropping in the next version of this list based on what we find out about his injury.

TIER 12

Esteury Ruiz hit the IL and we don’t know how long he’ll be out and how much he’ll steal or hit when he returns. Ruiz remains a single-category contributor for all intents and purposes, so his ranking for your specific format will vary considerably based on how much steals matter.

TIER 13

Carlos Correa is hitting for some average lately, but the power remains out and I’m tired of waiting for it to come back. The lack of pop plus the ever-present injury risk is becoming too much for me to want to roster.
The limited movement of TJ Friedl should indicate my confidence level that it will continue. He is very worth rostering for now while he’s hot and leading off, but he isn’t someone I’m trying to trade for.
Spencer Torkelson has four home runs, 21 combined runs and RBI, and a .295/.380/.682 line over his last 50 trips to the plate. I am very excited.

TIER 14

Jordan Westburg has played quite well in his limited showing so far, particularly with respect to walks and strikeouts. He doesn’t have a home run yet, but two doubles and two triples in his last five games hopefully indicate that Westburg will get a ball over the fence sooner rather than later.
Willy Adames flies onto and up the list with six doubles, four home runs, and 12 RBI over his last 10 games along with just a 14.9% strikeout rate. As bad as he looked previously, Adames might just have found the mojo that we saw in 2022.
I hope Anthony Volpe eats some chicken parm with his teammates every day.

TIER 15

It’s good to see Lars Nootbaar playing almost every day and getting some hits now that he’s back. The next step is for him to find some power.
Joc Pederson seems to be sitting against lefties with the return of a few other Giants’ outfielders.
Ian Happ’s highs just aren’t long enough or strong enough to outweigh these devastating lows. In a league where you only start three outfielders, he’s fine to drop.

TIER 16

In his last 11 games, J.D. Davis has a 36.6% strikeout rate and a .200/.220/.325 line. Yuck. He should heat up again at some point, but it’s fine to let him go in 12-teamers instead of keeping him on the bench.
Tommy Edman should return shortly after the break, but I just don’t know if I care that much about someone who will hit fewer than 15 home runs with poor ratios.
Nolan Jones is sitting at times and striking out way too much. I love the pop he can bring to the table, but you can’t show it if you swing and miss.
LaMonte Wade Jr. is droppable in 12-teamers. He’s hit just one home run since June 3 with no steals. Sure, the plate discipline and ratios are fine over that span, but he’s struggled lately and the ceiling isn’t that high to begin with.
Joey Votto is really fun.

And now, once again, it’s time for the Hitter List:

Rank	Hitter	Position	Change
1	Ronald Acuña Jr.T1	OF	-
2	Shohei Ohtani	DH	-
3	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SS, OF	-
4	Mookie Betts T2	2B, SS, OF	+2
5	Freddie Freeman	1B	-1
6	José Ramírez	3B	-1
7	Juan Soto	OF	-
8	Kyle Tucker	OF	-
9	Bo Bichette	SS	-
10	Pete Alonso T3	1B	-
11	Rafael Devers	3B	-
12	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	+1
13	Matt Olson	1B	+4
14	Corbin Carroll	OF	-2
15	Adolis García	OF	-1
16	Corey Seager	SS	-1
17	Julio Rodríguez	OF	-1
18	Wander Franco	3B, SS	-
19	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	+1
20	Marcus Semien	2B, SS	-1
21	Luis Robert Jr. T4	OF	+2
22	Yordan Alvarez	OF	-1
23	Randy Arozarena	OF	+1
24	Nolan Arenado	3B	+1
25	Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	+1
26	Ozzie Albies	2B	+1
27	Manny Machado	3B	+4
28	Aaron Judge	OF	-6
29	Francisco Lindor	SS	+1
30	Trea Turner	SS	-2
31	Christian Yelich	OF	+1
32	Elly De La Cruz T5	3B, SS	+7
33	Austin Riley	3B	-4
34	Will Smith	C	-1
35	Adley Rutschman	C	-
36	Sean Murphy	C	-
37	Bryce Harper	DH	+1
38	George Springer	OF	+3
39	Cedric Mullins	OF	+1
40	Kyle Schwarber T6	OF	-6
41	Nick Castellanos	OF	+1
42	Eloy Jiménez	OF	+1
43	Masataka Yoshida	OF	+1
44	Nathaniel Lowe	1B	+1
45	Christian Walker	1B	+6
46	Jonathan India	2B	+1
47	Ketel Marte T7	2B, OF	-1
48	Jose Altuve	2B	-11
49	J.T. Realmuto	C	-
50	Josh Jung	3B	+2
51	Luis Arraez	1B, 2B, 3B, OF	+2
52	Gleyber Torres	2B, SS	-2
53	J.D. Martinez	DH	+2
54	Michael Harris II T8	OF	+11
55	Anthony Santander	OF	+1
56	Bryan Reynolds	OF	+1
57	Teoscar Hernández	OF	+1
58	Alex Bregman	3B	+6
59	Max Muncy	2B, 3B	+2
60	Yandy Díaz	1B, 3B	+2
61	Starling Marte	OF	+2
62	Matt Chapman	3B	-8
63	Daulton Varsho	C, OF	-15
64	Matt McLain	SS	+2
65	Steven Kwan	OF	+2
66	Alex Verdugo T9	OF	+2
67	Nico Hoerner	2B, SS	+2
68	Jorge Soler	OF	+2
69	Lane Thomas	OF	+6
70	Andrew Vaughn	1B, OF	+3
71	Andrés Giménez	2B	+16
72	Salvador Perez	C	-12
73	Jonah Heim	C	+1
74	Spencer Steer	1B, 3B	-3
75	Byron Buxton	OF	+2
76	Jeremy Peña	SS	+3
77	Austin Hays	OF	+3
78	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B, SS	-6
79	Brandon Nimmo	OF	+2
80	Xander Bogaerts T10	SS	+3
81	Jake McCarthy	OF	+3
82	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	1B, OF	+3
83	Jordan Walker	3B, OF	+8
84	Josh Naylor	1B, OF	+4
85	Gunnar Henderson	3B, SS	+4
86	Isaac Paredes	1B, 2B, 3B	+6
87	Anthony Rizzo	1B	-28
88	Mike Trout	OF	+5
89	Riley Greene T11	OF	+59
90	Taylor Ward	OF	-8
91	Brandon Drury	1B, 2B, 3B	+4
92	Cody Bellinger	OF	+16
93	Bryson Stott	2B, SS	+6
94	Ezequiel Duran	3B, SS	-
95	Hunter Renfroe	OF	+1
96	Ty France	1B, 3B	-6
97	Leody Taveras	OF	+5
98	Esteury Ruiz T12	OF	-12
99	Dansby Swanson	SS	-1
100	Amed Rosario	SS, OF	+3
101	Ezequiel Tovar	SS	-
102	Justin Turner	3B	+2
103	Christopher Morel	2B, 3B, OF	+3
104	Alec Bohm	1B, 3B	+3
105	Maikel Garcia	3B	+10
106	C.J. Cron	1B	+3
107	Orlando Arcia T13	2B, SS	-10
108	Marcell Ozuna	OF	+3
109	Carlos Correa	SS	-31
110	Henry Davis	C, OF	+3
111	TJ Friedl	OF	+7
112	Tommy Pham	OF	-7
113	Whit Merrifield	2B, OF	+3
114	Spencer Torkelson	1B	+18
115	Andrew Benintendi T14	OF	+2
116	Jordan Westburg	2B, 3B	+7
117	Ha-Seong Kim	2B, 3B, SS	+4
118	Thairo Estrada	2B, SS, OF	+2
119	Ryan Mountcastle	1B	-9
120	Willy Adames	SS	+UR
121	Anthony Volpe	SS	+14
122	William Contreras T15	C	+9
123	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	+6
124	Lars Nootbaar	OF	-
125	Joc Pederson	OF	-25
126	Tyler Stephenson	C, 1B	-7
127		OF	-13
128	Andrew McCutchen	OF	-16
129	Ian Happ	OF	-53
130	Brendan Donovan	1B, 2B, 3B, OF	-5
131	Jake Fraley	OF	-1
132	Jeimer Candelario	3B	+5
133	Francisco Alvarez	C	+9
134	Garrett Cooper	1B, OF	+11
135	Nick Gonzales T16	2B	+9
136		1B, 3B	-14
137	Yainer Diaz	C	-3
138	Seiya Suzuki	OF	+1
139	Will Brennan	OF	+1
140	Bryan De La Cruz	OF	-2
141	Tommy Edman	2B, SS, OF	-8
142	Jack Suwinski	OF	+UR
143	Willson Contreras	C	-2
144	Nolan Jones	1B, OF	-16
145	José Abreu	1B	+1
146	LaMonte Wade Jr.	1B, OF	-20
147	Corey Julks	3B, OF	+UR
148	Jarren Duran	OF	+UR
149	Joey Votto	1B	+UR
150	Colton Cowser	OF	-

And here’s the Taxi Squad, presented in no particular order:

Taxi Squad

Hitter	Position	Team	Comment
Ronny Mauricio	2B/SS	NYM	No idea when he comes up, or if he plays every day when he does, but among the most imminent of the top prospects.
Tony Kemp	2B/OF	OAK	He leads off and is somewhat hot right now. If nothing else, he’ll steal some bases.
Kyle Manzardo	1B	TBR	Not sure where he would fit in the lineup every day, and not yet on the 40-man, but would be immediately interesting if called up.
Jose Miranda	1B/3B	MIN	Never had a high ceiling, but could be a useful back-end guy if he heats up.
Tim Anderson	SS	CWS	Could certainly get hot again, but I’m not waiting.
Elias Díaz	C	COL	He’s always stream-worthy at home, but I’m no longer holding him through slumps or road trips.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	1B/3B	CIN	He’ll be up, but it may not be imminent.
Triston Casas	1B	BOS	Still not walking, which is VERY strange for him.
Mickey Moniak	OF	LAA	He’ll get playing time, but I don’t see him as a difference-maker long-term.
Nick Madrigal	2B/3B	CHC	What a bummer. He just can’t stay healthy.
Brandon Marsh	OF	PHI	Too many strikeouts and the lack of contact kills his production.
Mike Ford	1B	SEA	A hard-hitting first baseman with strikeout issues isn’t generally worth chasing.
Kerry Carpenter	OF	DET	Sits against lefties, but has shown promising power.
Dominic Canzone	OF	ARI	Why did they call him up just to sit him?
Jonathan Aranda	2B/3B	TBR	Optioned back down.
Blake Sabol	C/OF	SFG	Sabol sat against two of three lefties. The loss of playing time is fine if you’re using him at catcher, but not if he’s in your outfield.
Jake Burger	3B	CWS	I just don’t think he’s going to make enough contact to be more than a streamer.
Colt Keith	3B	DET	He’s been promoted to Triple-A and is by far their best-hitting prospect right now.
Cal Raleigh	C	SEA	A streaky power-hitting catcher with more upside than most.
Endy Rodriguez	C	PIT	His plate discipline has been good, but not showing power in triple-A.
Akil Baddoo	OF	DET	Let’s see if the Tigers will let him run.
Willy Adames	SS	MIL	Just can’t wait any longer for him to snap out of this funk.
Alex Kirilloff	1B/OF	MIN	If the power starts showing up, watch out.
Edouard Julien	2B	MIN	Looking much more comfortable at the plate, albeit in a platoon.
Coby Mayo	3B	BAL	He’s super hot right now, but Ryan Mountcastle’s impending return is a roadblock.
Luis Garcia	2B/SS	WAS	Makes a lot of contact, but his aggressive approach is prone to streakiness.
Rowdy Tellez	1B	MIL	On the IL now.
Drew Waters	OF	KCR	The former Top-100 prospect has contact issues, but also some pop and speed.
Mike Tauchman	OF	CHC	The hot streak seems over.
Eugenio Suárez	3B	SEA	The power hasn’t been there, which means nothing has been there. I’ve kept the faith for a while now, but it’s time to move on.
Miguel Vargas	1B/OF	LAD	We’ve been more than patient—he’s just not there right now.
Eddie Rosario	OF	ATL	Hot and cold is how he’s always been, and the cold is FREEZING.
Paul DeJong	SS	STL	DeJong is a streamer and nothing more.
Keibert Ruiz	C	WAS	Statcast loves what he’s doing, but reality does not.
Jorge Polanco	2B	MIN	A second, more severe hamstring injury is bad news, especially when he was having a hard time getting over the first one.
Brett Baty	3B	NYM	Plays every day, but not hitting.
Royce Lewis	3B	MIN	Oblique issues (and really any core issues) are scary, yo.
CJ Abrams	SS	WAS	Five steals over his last four games—are the Nats finally going to let him run?
Harrison Bader	OF	NYY	When is the next IL stint coming?
Ryan McMahon	2B/3B	COL	On base in 12 of the last 14, but just a 53 wRC+ in that stretch.
Ke’Bryan Hayes	3B	PIT	On the IL with back issues.
Travis d’Arnaud	C	ATL	Streamable catcher.
Nolan Gorman	2B	STL	Striking out way too much for me to care about the power right now.
Jeff McNeil	2B/OF	NYM	A 1.9% walk rate and 25.9% strikeout rate since June 19th for a guy who never finished a season with a K-BB% above 10 tells me something very weird and bad is happening.
Josh Lowe	OF	TBR	Still a believer in the talent, but the strikeouts keep coming.
Adam Duvall	OF	BOS	He probably gets hot again at some point, but drop him until then.
Alejandro Kirk	C	TOR	Probably doesn’t need to be kept on your IL if space is limited. The power just isn’t there.
Danny Jansen	C	TOR	Performs well in short bursts, but consistency hasn’t been a strength.
Bo Naylor	C	CLE	Catcher has been a wasteland in Cleveland, so Naylor should get plenty of chances to play.
Patrick Bailey	C	SFG	Looking less hot lately.
MJ Melendez	C	KCR	The playing time is useful in two-catcher leagues, but it’s time to move on in one-catcher formats.
David Peralta	OF	LAD	Excellent streamer/DFS play against righties, but will sit against lefties.
Harold Ramírez	OF	TBR	Just not playing enough to be very relevant right now.
Luis Matos	OF	SFG	Just three extra-base hits since his call-up.
J.P. Crawford	SS	SEA	Useful and consistent in deep leagues, but the upside is too low for shallow leagues.
Jarred Kelenic	OF	SEA	You don’t need to keep holding in 12-teamers.
Mauricio Dubón	2B/SS/OF	HOU	Slappy utilityman could see plenty of time with Jose Altuve out.
Joey Meneses	1B/OF	WAS	The magic of 2022 seems so long ago, doesn’t it?
Brandon Lowe	2B	TBR	Not playing much nor playing well upon his return.
Jose Siri	OF	TBR	The pop and speed are always present, but playing time and contact are not.
Kris Bryant	OF	COL	He’s droppable.

4 responses to “Hitter List 7/12: Top 150 Hitters – Week 16 Fantasy Baseball 2023”

Dudelove says:

July 13, 2023 at 10:14 AM

Now you’re just trolling us with Josh Lowe….

Massimo FD says:

July 13, 2023 at 3:45 PM

Hi Scott – are you seeing enough from Jake McCarthy (#81) that you think he should stay in this upper tier? Recently dropped in my league, manager must be frustrated with the plate appearances and high strikeouts.

- Scott Chu says:
  
  July 14, 2023 at 7:22 AM
  
  McCarthy still will start most days, and even when he doesn’t he’s a threat to swipe a bag. Also, the strikeout rate isn’t awful when you consider the mostly double-digit walk rate of late. The upside is extremely high so I’d be hesitant to drop him unless it’s a very shallow format, you’re punting steals, or it’s a points league that penalizes Ks and/or suppresses SB value.
  
Greg says:

July 17, 2023 at 3:05 PM

Varsho has been comatose at the plate for most of the season but you have him at 63rd. What gives? He shouldn’t even be in the top 100 when he’s hitting .111 for the last 14 days.

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Hitter List 7/12: Top 150 Hitters – Week 16 Fantasy Baseball 2023

Scott Chu

4 responses to “Hitter List 7/12: Top 150 Hitters – Week 16 Fantasy Baseball 2023”

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