Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2024 Fantasy Baseball: Week 4 – 4/22

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 2:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. Before the notes and rankings, an injury table outlines where players would be relatively ranked if they were fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. The Cherry Bomb players are likely going to underperform those labeled as a Toby across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase ceiling vs. floor in many cases. Pick the one that you need most in your situation, of course.
6. I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots. Injuries are so strange (especially in spring training) and instead of shoving them at random moments on The List, I’ve elected to throw all of them into one table here for you, the wise fantasy manager, to determine if it’s worthwhile to take the injury discount and when.

(OFS) = Out For Season. They usually went under TJS or a similar procedure.

I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!

One last point about that – pitchers often need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

I added something new to The List last season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me, and this rank will likely conflict with our weekly SP To Stash article from Rudy Ropp, though we will be conferring each week.. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.

They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers as spec adds at the very least. Some guys aren’t here and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.

Colors: Green = Worthy of a stash.

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 75,000+ word Top 400 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.

Let’s get to it.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
• These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.

 

• Pitchers in the Top 40 (or so) move less drastically than those from 40-100. Yes, I’m reiterating the last bullet point because I get comments about it each week. The back-half of the List has a ton of movement constantly due to the nature of 12-team leagues. It’s in your best interest to get value now vs. holding onto a fringe arm as a stash for 10 days while you sit them against a tough offense. Yes, this means you’ll see dramatic +15/-20 moves a lot. It’s how it works.

 

• As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 70, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
• Added: Mitchell Parker (59), Albert Suárez (62)
• Removed: Cristian Javier (26), Yu Darvish (28), Merrill Kelly (36) Garrett Whitlock (51)
• Net Change Inside Top 70:  (+2)
• Please understand how this affects movement across The List.

 

Tier 1 – The Remaining Aces

You know they are aces.

 

1. Corbin Burnes – He isn’t dominating and the floor is still solid. It’ll be dope, don’t worry.

2. Zack Wheeler – Velocity has been a little weird and it doesn’t matter.

3. Tyler Glasnow – Injuries are EVERYWHERE, why not favor the guy who is flexing the 30% + strikeout rate?

4. Freddy Peralta – Ditto with Peralta. The injury ding matters a whole lot less right now and he’s absolutely crushing.

5. Luis Castillo – I know, it’s a dip after he’s done two straight solid starts. That’s more about Glasnow & Peralta deserving the leaps.

6. Pablo López – I’m still a major López believer, but the three above are much more in rhythm than Pablo. #6 SP does not equal a lack of faith, of course.

7. Cole Ragans – Obviously I’m going to brush off a .900 BABIP start against one of the best offenses in baseball. I also recognize his slider usage dropped to just 10% – one of the catalysts for 2023’s elite second half.

8. Tarik Skubal – His four-seamer has dropped in quality over the last three games. Weather was one reason, but turning to a sinker in his last game raises an eyebrow for the wrong reasons. Why so negative at #8?! I’m alerting you to the signs to watch to see if he stops becoming an ace.

 

Tier 2 – AGA With Something To Prove

They have the AGA tag, though they all have a quirk that could mean they lose it by June.

 

9. Logan Webb – I get the sense Webb will be falling as the season progresses when those behind him showcase their best selves. Webb’s lack of break whiff pitch limits his ceiling. Consider him the final boss to the top tier.

10. George Kirby – Kirby is right there with Webb, but lacks the secondary to demand a high floor. Here’s hoping he’ll find it soon.

11. Zac Gallen – I still find Gallen’s whole schtick a bit too abnormal and unsustainable in the same way as those in the Top 10 (low fastballs for called strikes + curves and changeups underneath). Too much hard contact and not enough strikes to convince me he can hold it all year and flash a sub 3.00 ERA.

12. Kevin Gausman – He’s on the path to redemption but just four splitter whiffs feels…odd.

13. Max Fried – Fried is not cooked. For real, I’d buy low if your league’s manager is getting antsy. No sign of injury thus far.

14. Aaron Nola – Nola isn’t spotting his curves with brilliance each outing, and until he does, he’ll remain in the teens.

15. Yoshinobu Yamamoto – THROW. YOUR. FOUR-SEAMER. UPSTAIRS. Thanks.

16. Joe Ryan – There’s another gear to unlock with Ryan once his slider and splitter become routine at the bottom of the zone.

17. Grayson Rodriguez – Does Grayson have the ability to command a secondary pitch at will? His team context and overall stuff keeps his floor relatively high, but he can’t be a Top 10 SP until a non-four-seamer takes over.

18. Zach Eflin – Debatedly in the third tier, Eflin is too much of a rock to remove the AGA tag. He’s easily the most fringe of the lot, without definitive 30% strikeout upside.

 

Tier 3 – We Expect Success Every Night

They don’t have the AGA tag and could earn it before June.

 

19. Shota Imanaga – We all want him to get the AGA tag his last name prophecizes (yes, we made an IM AN AGA shirt), but until his slider or curve become consistent strike offers to pair off the four-seamer, I worry there’s a floor we haven’t seen yet. If he continues dominating without it, obviously I’ll have no choice but to coronate the man.

20. Logan Gilbert – Gilbert doesn’t overwhelm batters with his arsenal, but has thus far figured out how to earn enough strikes with sliders, cutters, and four-seamers. I’m weird and don’t like the somewhat chaotic approach at the moment, but like Shōta, I won’t deny the success if it’s working despite the non-ideal approach.

21. Jared Jones – The dude is a stud and we all know it. We haven’t seen the inevitable floor yet, though, where he loses the feel for either his four-seamer or slider. In addition, his innings are capped this year, preventing a potential SP #1-5 rank at the end of the year unlike the theoretical rank of those below him. STILL, he’s dope and makes us feel dope with two of the best pitches in the game. For the 31st time, he’s the new Strider.

22. Sonny Gray – Gray’s return has been magnificent, and while we shouldn’t expect anything close to his twelve strikeout performance on the regular, he may incessantly perform at a 25%+ strikeout rate across six frames.

23. Chris Sale – The ceiling is still there for Sale on a winning team. If only his changeup was what it used to be…

24. Dylan Cease – I’m addicted to Cease’s new cutter, which has been spotted about five times in total across two starts. I’m a believer that it could be the missing piece in his mix as the easy-to-earn strike pitch to take the stress off his four-seamer and slider.

25. Jesús Luzardo – He’s the premium Cherry Bomb with a fantastic three-pitch mix…as long as he doesn’t make too many mistakes over the plate.

 

Tier 4 – Hard Rock Café

I don’t think they’ll get the AGA tag this year, but hot dang are they stable 6+ inning arms for all-around production.

 

26. Bailey Ober – WHAT?! Why is Ober down after he’s allowed just 2 ER since his first start of the year? Because this group fits him better. Cease, Luzardo, Sale, etc. those guys have the ceiling of a legit AGA arm, while Ober is the king of the Holly arms. Stable and solid, but not an ace. Please don’t yell at me.

27. Michael King – I trust King more than Musgrove as King’s balanced arsenal opens the door for more whiffs on his slider and changeup. That seven-walk game was a complete anomaly, y’all.

28. Joe Musgrove – Musgrove is a weird. I hypothesize that he’s become such a breaking ball arm that batters aren’t getting enough variance to whiff on his breakers. Regardless, you should expect a strikeout-per-inning as the season progresses, with six frames each time he starts.

29. Nathan Eovaldi – He’s healthy and doing his best with his splitter and cutter to complement the somewhat hittable heater. Throw in a solid offense behind him, and that’s a rock in your lineup.

30. Justin Verlander – He’s back from the IL and ready to dance. We may see him in Tier 6 next week if his four-seamer and slider repel me, but for now, we anticipate a flirtation with a 25% strikeout rate, solid ratios, and dependable Wins.

 

Tier 5 – So Dang Close To Greatness

I trust all these pitchers to produce this season while they also carry the ability to be more than an SP #3. Bryan Woo would be in this tier and Paul Skenes would be near the bottom of this tier if called up today.

 

31. Ryan Pepiot – Pepiot is doing the thing with his four-seamer and pitches for a team that should wake up offensively over time. Just get your changeup and slider in order, okay?

32. Garrett Crochet – We saw Crochet’s floor as his slider failed to earn strikes, leaving him stranded with just a four-seamer and cutter. I don’t expect it to be the norm as strikeouts + solid ratios should continue to flow, but Wins. Those will be hard to come by.

33. Bryce Miller – I was hoping for more growth from Bryce this year. Obviously he’s been fortunate thus far, but if we take last year and say “he has a new splitter than can be good + a sinker he trusts for called strikes”, that makes for a solid arm, right? It’s just not the Top 15 SP breakout season we wanted, is all.

34. Blake Snell – You do whatever you want. Seriously. We’ve tapped our feet to this melody every year since 2021, anxiety-riddled early in the year before he goes on a stupid tear to make us all forget it during the winter. History is determined to repeat itself…until it doesn’t. This isn’t the year, right? Wow, such incredible writing.

35. Tanner Bibee – Hey, he actually executed the BSB last time out! Ummm, don’t you want him to throw low four-seamers instead? …yes. But if he can do this with his changeup and slider, I’ll take it. Who cares what I think, this works, too.

 

Tier 6 – Celebrating The Holly Days

This has stability among arms who are all kinds of fun. Gavin Williams would be here if activated today.

 

36. Chris Bassitt – Don’t question Bassitt. He’s the man on the porch you’re always happy to talk to.

37. José Berríos – Same with Berríos. I don’t quite believe his sinker/curve combo is this good, but that’s all-around production in most starts.

38. Nestor Cortes – He’s woken up lately and begun to spot both his four-seamer and cutter with authority, traveling deep into games in the process.

39. Aaron Civale – Civale has stumbled lately, and yet we expect far better with his slider, cutter, and curve.

40. Brayan Bello – The slider is a great addition this year, even if the whiffs are a little hard to come by.

41. Kutter Crawford – I worry a bit that Crawford doesn’t have an elite, reliable offering. That said, he’s making it work and could grow into the starting role with more time on the bump.

42. Yusei Kikuchi – After a poor initial outing while he tested out his new changeup, Kikuchi reverted to his 2023 approach of fastball/slider/curve and it’s been bliss.

43. Jordan Montgomery – Soooo, now that it’s not the playoffs n all, are you going to be able to spot the edges with everything and not look like a standard Toby?

44. Ronel Blanco – Our poster boy today deserved more love from me in his opening three outings, though his worst skills showcase came in his most recent time on the bump against the Nationals. Given his prior success, I’m still buying into his fastball/slider/change arsenal and could see him climbing more in future weeks. The Astros clearly are leaning on Blanco over France and it will take a dramatic decline to remove him from the rotation at this point.

45. Cristopher Sánchez – The sinker/change is still stellar. Don’t overthink it.

46. Casey Mize – He’s getting better with every start and is beginning to look like a rock for the season ahead, fueled by a much-improved four-seamer. Just wait until his slider gets back to normal, too.

 

Tier 7 – The Wobbly Guardrails

We’re at the edge of the Cliff where it’s heavily in your interest to grab guys who have the potential to lock themselves firmly inside the Top 40/50 SP for the season.

 

47. Reynaldo López – López is relatively safe inside the Atlanta rotation, but doesn’t carry enough electricity in his secondaries to demand a spot in the sixth tier.

48. Edward Cabrera – There’s a whole lot of fun in Cabrera’s pitch mix, the only question is if he can throw enough strikes across at least three of them on a given night to make him efficient enough for 5+ frames.

49. Reid Detmers – His last outing displayed the fear I had with Detmers, even if the line masked it. It’s very possible I’m overreacting, but watching Detmers’ pitches flutter around the zone instead of hitting their spots had me on edge. I worry that Detmers’ secondaries aren’t reliable enough to maintain his early success.

50. Tanner Houck – Houck’s last two outings displayed both sides of the coin, though the former turmoil feels more like the outlier. He doesn’t have the Top 20 ceiling as others, but if his changeup continues to improve, he will rise up the ranks.

51. MacKenzie Gore – After looking like a stud in the making, Gore sadly took a step back against the Astros. Now with the Dodgers ahead, it can be awfully frustrating to roster him in the short term (especially with the low Win chance for the Nationals), though I’m into this long-term. We’re at the part in the rankings where burn-and-churn is heavily encouraged, and I insist on making moves based on your needs, not these number ranks. If you have many solid options on the wire, why hold Gore for 10 days (I’d bench against the Dodgers up next) instead of stealing a few productive starts off the wire? There is no guarantee Gore breakouts out from May 1st onward, even if I like his skills plenty.

 

Tier 8 – Thin Blankets

It’s a mini-tier of guys who don’t warm you like the soaring upside of Tier 7, but get the job done to go six full frames without devastation moreso than Tier 9.

 

52. Marcus Stroman – He’s dependable. There’s more reliability here than Tier 9/10, but not the same electricity as the other Holly pitchers above.

53. Reese Olson – I see a dependable six-inning guy with Olson’s sinker/slider/change with a little more whiffability than Stroman.

54. Jack Flaherty – Flaherty is a mix of the two. He’s more capable for Quality Starts and his slider/curve are looking fantastic, while his four-seamer can get blasted on a given start as he tries to sneak them in for called strikes.

 

Tier 9 – Plaid Shirts and a PBR

They could easily be anchors of your staff – both bad and good, with heavy HIPSTER risk. I personally don’t like having guys like these on my teams, but I recognize I was too harsh previously as I didn’t weigh the potential impact of it clicking high enough. Just be disciplined to move on if this doesn’t work early. 

 

55. Nick Lodolo – The curve is looking sweet, but is the four-seamer and changeup enough to make him productive despite calling Cincy his home park?

56. Luis Gil – We finally got a start with high four-seamer and slider strike rates, which led to Gil’s best outing of the year. He could catch fire with his changeup as well and turn into a stud for weeks…or return seven walks again. There’s a feeling that his start against the Rays was a Dennis, but let’s see if he can keep it together.

57. Hunter Greene – We know the strikeouts are there but at what cost?

58. Carlos Rodón – I’m still waiting for Rodón to be more than what he has been. He was 94 mph in 4/22’s afternoon game against the Athletics with just two whiffs on secondaries and if he doesn’t flex the ceiling we know and love in his next outing, it may be time to push him down to Tier 11.

 

Tier 10 – Is This An Ace?

This is the butterfly meme where we’re staring out our teams long enough, hoping one of them can save us from our IL-riddled squads.

 

59. Mitchell Parker – WHO?! Actually, I’m sure everyone knows him by now after succeeding against both the Dodgers and Astros in his first two starts, and given we’re at the point in our ranks where losing any arm below here is not a gamechanger in a standard 12-teamer, why not, go get Parker and see if that splitter he unveiled against the Astros sticks. PARKER AT #59 IS RIDICULOUS. Did you not read what I just wrote?

60. José Soriano – Same goes for Soriano, who struggled in his first frame as a starter and has been great in the 2.5 starts since. It’s a 97 mph sinker that’s a true sinker and pairs it with a reliable curve and a sprinkle of other offerings. This may fizzle out quickly, but if Soriano can find the zone often with his sinker and curve, he has staying power.

61. Jordan Hicks – Like Soriano, Hicks pummels the zone with sinkers that are hard to barrel at 97 mph. The difference? Hicks doesn’t have a reliable secondary pitch for strikes. That could happen overnight as we saw his sweeper act that way during the spring.

62. Albert Suárez – Among the crew of youngins is the fun Suárez, who made his first start of the year and took full advantage, slinging 96/97 mph four-seamers at the top of the zone for an easy Win. Now he has a two-start week of LAA + OAK and why the h*ck would you resist that? If his fastball declines like it did after his first spring start, it’ll be easy for us to jump ship, too.

63. Gavin Stone – Maybe I’m too low on Stone. I’m seeing a changeup-first arm who didn’t have his signature pitch in his last game, resulting in a decent fastball and slider left to pick up the slack. I want more electricity out of the arm, I want more trust to go six frames from his club, and I’m finding myself moving away from Stone to chase others.

64. Trevor Rogers – I’d have Rogers higher after showcasing a BSB approach in his last start, but he gets Atlanta up next. Ugh. Don’t overlook Rogers among a struggling Miami team that should break out of their horrific funk over time.

65. Ryan Weathers – He just earned a Golden Goal on a night where his four-seamer, slider, and changeup were firing on all cylinders. Do it again, please.

66. Brady Singer – It’s been a great start to the year, but the four-seamer has disappeared and he looks like the sinker/slider guy of old. Wait, that guy isn’t great. No, he’s not. Don’t get too enamored with Singer and if it starts to fall apart (i.e. the four-seamer doesn’t return vs. LHB), I’d get out of here quickly.

 

Tier 11 – I Don’t Want To Go Outside

These are Holly types but not as rock-solid as those in the upper tiers but you find yourself holding them in fear of what else is on the wire.

 

67. Michael Wacha – He’s a lower-end Holly as he’ll hover above a 20% strikeout rate with a decent Win chance as he constantly goes six frames. The command is there more than not.

68. Zack Littell – I’m not the biggest fan of Littell’s approach – it’s not a great fastball and his slider approach is strange – but recently finding his splitter adds enough to his arsenal to make Littell a decent bet on a given night. Remember, the pitchers in this tier may be more valuable to you than those in Tier 10 as they have a generally higher long-term floor at the cost of their upside. Go with your needs, as always.

69. Clarke Schmidt – He’s getting better with his cutter against LHB and I imagine the whole package improves over time. He already has it made against RHB.

70. Seth Lugo – Lugo is fine. Seriously, don’t overthink Lugo and start him against all but top tier offenses.

71. James Paxton – Paxton has a decent two-step ahead and should be better than the eight walk effort last week. Pitching for the Dodgers is a good thing, even if his time may be limited – the fastball velocity is down to 93 mph and we all know his injury history.

72. Spencer Turnbull – Apparently the Phillies are leaning toward putting Turnbull back in the pen when Walker returns to “limit his innings”. Which doesn’t seem right to me – Turnbull isn’t a prized arm they need to protect. LET THE MAN PITCH WHEN HE’S FEELING IT. After all, his repertoire isn’t the greatest out there and requires him to be in the groove he’s currently in to produce at the major league level. Slow him down and he may never get it back.

 

Tier 12 – Sure, This Could Work

We’re making due with what we can as you’re hoping to get a Win and decent ratios from these arms instead of the riskier plays in Tier 13.

 

73. Ranger Suárez – It’s the Toby tier and Ranger isn’t going to blow you away. A smaller strikeout expectation than someone like Seth Lugo, but a solid QS chance to take advantage of decent matchups.

74. Brandon Pfaadt – What do you know, I’m still skeptical of Pfaadt’s arsenal with his sweeper acting as the only premier pitch. He needs more to move up the ranks.

75. Jameson Taillon – Taillon did well in his Still ILL outing, but that was the Marlins and I watched him constantly fail to pinpoint his weapons. Now getting the Astros this week, I’d take a pause on Taillon, though if you’re looking for a QS arm across the season, Taillon is a great investment at the moment. Expect more sliders, cutters, and sinker this year while he focuses on earning whiffs upstairs with four-seamers.

76. Luis Severino – Sevy doesn’t have the slider and changeup of old, limiting his strikeout potential. That said, he’s a decent Toby when he locates his (now worse) four-seamer and cutter.

77. José Buttó – Buttó doesn’t have anything exciting in the arsenal, but has above-average command to make him considerable when not facing strong offenses.

78. Martín Pérez – This may be the last week we lean into Pérez with a start against the Giants…okay two weeks with the Athletics after. BUT THEN WE MOVE ON. It’s the Angels after that. OKAY AFTER THAT.

79. Javier Assad – If you’re looking for whiffs, you’ve come to the wrong place. This is a Vargas Rule and I expect it to come to an end shortly.

 

Tier 13 – The Mediocre Cheese AKA The Queso-so

Hey, strikeouts are hard to find and these guys can brings Ks, but are very so-so.

 

80. Hunter Brown – You know why he’s here. Why is he on The List at all? Because this isn’t a ranking of “2024 ERA up to now”. We all recognize the skill that isn’t and at SP 80 in a 12-teamer, Brown is one of the few lottery tickets left to take. Yes I’d prefer to stash Skenes. I’d have Skenes around Tier 6/7 as a stash at the moment.

81. Kyle Harrison – Harrison was interesting last week after a start with his four-seamer and changeup working together in tandem. Then we saw the slowball disappear and we can lean back and say “ahhh, so that’s not a thing, is it.”

82. Mitch Keller – He’s the poster boy for 12-teamer waiver-wire Cherry Bomb. He’s there in a moment of desperation, but hot dang is he not worth a consistent roster spot.

83. Triston McKenzie – He’s pitching with a hurt UCL tendon. Yeah. But he just did well against the Athletics with his slider! He’s on The List, isn’t he? I think so…? WHAT DO YOU THINK YOU’RE READING?! The Economist…?

84. Charlie Morton – You want potential Wins and some strikeouts? Fine, do your thing.

 

Tier 14 – Fine, You Need Some Streams & Other Randos

Sneaky starters who could find you some wins or quality starts but shouldn’t be held with adoration in your 12-teamers.

 

85. Jose Quintana – It’s a solid two-step this week for Quintana against the Giants and Cardinals. It’s a decent bet for at least one win.

86. Logan Allen – Not the Arizona pitcher (who oddly also gets a start as he likely opens for Slade Cecconi), and if he weren’t getting Atlanta this week, he could arguably be in Tier 12. There’s no reason to hoard him now.

87. Jon Gray – He gets Seattle and that could be fine.

88. Dane Dunning – He also gets Seattle and doesn’t have Gray’s strikeout ceiling.

89. Chris Paddack – It’s a two-step against the White Sox and Angels. I know Paddack hasn’t done well so far, but these matchups open the door for six decent frames each.

90. Keaton Winn – Another guy with two starts this week, here against the Mets and Pirates. His splitter is doing well at limiting ICR, even if the whiffs are hard to come by.

91. Bryce Elder – Elder is getting another shot with Atlanta and we all remember his Vargas Rule run in the first half last season. We saw a poor version of that in the spring, but with the Marlins + Guardians this week, you could do far worse.

92. Sean Manaea – Manaea has the Giants, so sure, why not.

93. Tyler Alexander – The Tigers await Alexander, who is this YAR’s Fratty Pirate for the Rays.

94. JP Sears – We watched him cruise through the Yankees today and carries the highest ceiling of anyone in this tier. Sadly, he pitches for Oakland, has unreliable command, and gets the Orioles this week.

95. Lance Lynn – I guess a start against the Mets isn’t the worst moment of desperation?

96. Andrew Abbott – Abbott has two unfavorable starts (hosting PHI, @ TEX) but we all know the upside from last year still resides somewhere in Abbott.

97. Michael Lorenzen – The Rangers are letting him stick in the rotation and he has a decent QS chance with his slider and changeup.

98. Jonathan Cannon – You’re likely surprised to see Cannon here as he pitches for the CrySox, but he has two starts and boasts a sinker/sweeper/cutter mix that can return a Quality Start each time out against the Twins and Rays.

99. Erick Fedde – Like Cannon, Fedde has two starts this week against the Twins and Rays. I’d prefer the mystery box of Cannon a touch more.

100. Andrew Heaney – Usually I want nothing to do with Heaney, but he did flex a proper BSB against a strong Atlanta squad and he’s now slated to face the Mariners. There could be something there…?

 

Honorable Mentions

You’re getting little blurbs on everyone else with a rotation spot this week. This is in team order, not rank. If a pitcher has a rotation spot and is not listed here, it’s an error on my part after crafting The List and forgetting to add them here. Feel free to let me know if someone isn’t listed here and I’ll add them – it’s usually a fringe guy I removed and lapsed when ensuring they had a blurb!

 

Dean Kremer (BAL) – His splitter disappeared in his recent outing and there’s not enough trust to hold onto him.

Cole Irvin (BAL) – Maybe his velocity jumps back up with proper command like it did in the spring.

Cooper Criswell (BOS) – Pivetta is hurt and Criswell took his temporary spot. Not a long term play and I imagine the Sawx will limit him in starts as he’s sinker/sweeper focused.

Josh Winckowski (BOS) – He tossed under 50 pitches in his last outing, and even if he were stretched out, production is highly suspect.

Yariel Rodríguez (TOR) – It looks like Rodriguez will have one more start, two at most (both against the Royals) before Alek Manoah returns, with both games with a shorter-than-ideal leash. I’d rather chase a one-start streamer in a better matchup.

Michael Soroka (CHW) – He could very well turn into a Toby as the year progresses. Right now, he doesn’t have the command to justify the low Win gamble.

Chris Flexen (CHW) – This ain’t the Toby you want as the White Sox are not going to Win many games this year. Meanwhile, Flexen will be climbing the mountain as he does everything possible to flirt with a 20% strikeout rate.

Nick Nastrini (CHW) – Optioned to Triple-A. Womp womp.

Carlos Carrasco (CLE) – His velocity is down and even against a mediocre team, I wouldn’t to chance it.

Ben Lively (CLE) – Please don’t. Seriously.

Xzavion Curry (CLE) – We got a start from Curry before The List came out and it’s great to see Curry take advantage of the opportunity across five frames. He’s a desperate stream against the Athletics, though I don’t love the arsenal at all. Not for me.

Alec Marsh (KCR) – He earned the fifth spot and if you’re still thinking about that 11 strikeout game from last year, you’ll be lucky to get those in his first two outings combined.

Kenta Maeda (MIN) – He’s a Cherry Bomb who simply hasn’t been sweet enough to justify the low floor. He’d be on The List this week if he weren’t facing the Rangers.

Louie Varland (MIN) – Demoted to the minors and rightfully so. Hopefully he can establish four-seamer command upstairs and make a proper return.

Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) – Assumed to take over Varland’s role, but nothing is official yet. He’d be at the back-end of The List if he were as a streaming option, nothing more. His 93 mph heater needs to be pristine to get through his games.

J.P. France (HOU) – Until the Astros offense wakes up and good matchups come his way, it’s best to avoid France.

Griffin Canning (LAA) – Velocity is down two ticks and he’s not missing enough bats.

Patrick Sandoval (LAA) – Ditto, but slider and changeup instead.

Tyler Anderson (LAA) – He’s a desperate streamer.

Joe Boyle (OAK) – His stuff is so good. His command is so bad. Don’t fall for guys who can’t locate (this is different than Snell, who misses with a purpose. Big difference than Boyle who literally aims for the middle of the plate with every pitch).

Ross Stripling (OAK) – Stripling doesn’t have enough upside.

Alex Wood (OAK) – Once we get proper data, I wonder if we’ll see anything pop out for Wood. I highly doubt it.

Paul Blackburn (OAK) – He succeeded against poor offenses and now the schedule is too tough for his kitchen sink approach to thrive.

Emerson Hancock (SEA) – He’s subbing in for the hurt Bryan Woo, sporting a sinker/slider/change approach. It can work, though Hancock doesn’t look fully warm for the season yet. I’d take this slow and consider him as a potential Toby.

Adrian Houser (NYM) – It’s fastballs all day and sometimes it works.

A.J. Puk (MIA) – It’s been a massive disappointment as Puk’s four-seamer shape massively changed, making it far from the overpowering pitch I anticipated to see, even with the expected velocity drop.

Max Meyer (MIA) – He was demoted to Triple-A. Keep an eye on Meyer as he’s worth rostering when back in the rotation consistently for the Marlins. Not a “league winner”, but solid with his slider focus.

Braxton Garrett (MIA) – Some places are suggesting Garrett makes a start this week. Consider he’s enduring “Dead Arm” at the moment, I wouldn’t expect a return until next week at the earliest, personally. Regardless, it’s a Still ILL when he does.

Patrick Corbin (WSN) – There’s a new cutter for both RHB and LHB that may actually make a difference this season. Sleeper for NL-Only..? Crazy, I know.

Trevor Williams (WSN) – #NeverTrevor.

Jake Irvin (WSN) – He’s throwing a little harder and it’s still not a good fastball. His secondaries don’t do a whole lot either.

Taijuan Walker (PHI) – Walker is expected to return to the IL shortly and until we see him displaying some level of quality, it’s best to ignore him. Wait, who does he replace?! Apparently it’ll be Turnbull, which is all kinds of bonkers in my view.

Kyle Hendricks (CHC) – It’s getting worse and that’s not a fun time for an 87 mph heater.

Nick Martinez (CIN) – I hope he’s actually starting and throwing at least 40% changeups while axing the dang four-seamer now that he has a rotation spot back with Montas’ injury.

Aaron Ashby (MIL) – He made one start, wasn’t great, and is back in Triple-A. He came up and elected to move away from his slider, as well, while featuring diminished velocity. It’s unfortunate.

Colin Rea (MIL) – He looks to be starting for the Brewers and maybe that’s enough to warrant a stream here and there.

Joe Ross (MIL) – The Brewers could be going four-man the first turn and even if Ross was here, do you really want that?

Janson Junk (MIL) – Despite the name, he lacks filth.

Bailey Falter (PIT) – He’s been better than expected as of late, and maybe he holds a job with Gonzales’ injury.

Quinn Priester (PIT) – He’s expected to slot into the rotation for Gonzales, though it may not be for long with Skenes ready to pounce by the end of April.

Lance Lynn (STL) – The strikeout upside isn’t worth the volatility.

Miles Mikolas (STL) – There’s so little to chase here. You can do better.

Kyle Gibson (STL) – Maybe he has the slider working on a given night as a desperate streaming option. At least he has the leash to go six.

Steven Matz (STL) – Even hitting 97+ on his sinker over the weekend, Matz still failed to earn whiffs. This isn’t it.

Slade Cecconi (ARI) – He may be slotting in for Kelly and despite succeeding in his first outing (with the other L. Allen likely opening), Cecconi doesn’t have a strong enough repertoire to trust on a given hight.

Cal Quantrill (COL) – COL story, bro.

Dakota Hudson (COL) – COL story, bro.

Austin Gomber (COL) – COL story, bro.

Ty Blach (COL) – COL story, Bro.

Ryan Feltner (COL) – He actually has some intrigue with his four-seamer that should be a decent pitch upstairs, but his slider is more like a cutter that doesn’t get whiffs and there’s nothing else. Oh, and Coors n all.

Landon Knack (LAD) – Some consideration here, but I don’t think the Dodgers let him go long + he’s mostly two-pitch. More of a reliever than SP in my book.

Matt Waldron (SDP) – There was some consideration here as the SP #5 for the Padres, but it’s possible he pairs with Jhony Brito + his stuff speaks to a potential Toby and not much else.

Randy Vásquez (SDP) – He may eventually turn into a Toby type and we’re not there yet.

 

SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES

 

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Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Corbin BurnesT1	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	-
2	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	-
3	Tyler Glasnow	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk	+2
4	Freddy Peralta	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk	+4
5	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	-1
6	Pablo López	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	-3
7	Cole Ragans	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	-1
8	Tarik Skubal	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	-1
9	Logan Webb T2	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	-
10	George Kirby	Aces Gonna Ace Ratio Focused	-
11	Zac Gallen	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	-
12	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk	-
13	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus Injury Risk	-
14	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	-
15	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus	-
16	Joe Ryan	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	-
17	Grayson Rodriguez	Aces Gonna Ace Team Context Effect	-
18	Zach Eflin	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	-
19	Shota Imanaga T3	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-
20	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential Quality Starts	-
21	Jared Jones	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+3
22	Sonny Gray	Ace Potential Ratio Focused Injury Risk	+1
23	Chris Sale	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk	-1
24	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+3
25	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+5
26	Bailey Ober T4	Holly Quality Starts	-1
27	Michael King	Holly Quality Starts	+2
28	Joe Musgrove	Holly Quality Starts	-7
29	Nathan Eovaldi	Holly Quality Starts Injury Risk	+4
30	Justin Verlander	Holly Quality Starts	+4
31	Ryan Pepiot T5	Ace Potential Team Context Effect	+15
32	Garrett Crochet	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-
33	Bryce Miller	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+10
34	Blake Snell	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-3
35	Tanner Bibee	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+2
36	Chris Bassitt T6	Holly Quality Starts	-1
37	José Berríos	Holly Quality Starts	+2
38	Nestor Cortes	Holly Wins Bonus Injury Risk	+21
39	Aaron Civale	Holly Team Context Effect	-1
40	Brayan Bello	Holly Quality Starts	+1
41	Kutter Crawford	Holly Strikeout Upside	+6
42	Yusei Kikuchi	Holly Strikeout Upside	+7
43	Jordan Montgomery	Holly Quality Starts	-3
44	Ronel Blanco	Holly Team Context Effect Playing Time Question	+1
45	Cristopher Sánchez	Holly Quality Starts Team Context Effect	+3
46	Casey Mize	Holly Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+12
47	Reynaldo López T7	Spice Girl Team Context Effect	+4
48	Edward Cabrera	Spice Girl Strikeout Upside	+16
49	Reid Detmers	Spice Girl Strikeout Upside	-7
50	Tanner Houck	Spice Girl Strikeout Upside	+4
51	MacKenzie Gore	Spice Girl Strikeout Upside	-7
52	Marcus Stroman T8	Holly Quality Starts	+5
53	Reese Olson	Holly Quality Starts	+15
54	Jack Flaherty	Holly Quality Starts	+7
55	Nick Lodolo T9	Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside Injury Risk	-2
56	Luis Gil	Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-4
57	Hunter Greene	Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside	-2
58	Carlos Rodón	Cherry Bomb Team Context Effect Injury Risk	+7
59	Mitchell Parker T10	Spice Girl Ratio Focused Playing Time Question	+UR
60	José Soriano	Spice Girl Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+37
61	Jordan Hicks	Spice Girl Strikeout Upside	-5
62	Albert Suárez	Spice Girl	+UR
63	Gavin Stone	Spice Girl Team Context Effect Playing Time Question	+4
64	Trevor Rogers	Spice Girl Strikeout Upside	+16
65	Ryan Weathers	Spice Girl Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+22
66	Brady Singer	Cherry Bomb Quality Starts	-3
67	Michael Wacha T11	Holly Quality Starts	-7
68	Zack Littell	Holly Wins Bonus	+1
69	Clarke Schmidt	Holly Wins Bonus	+22
70	Seth Lugo	Holly Quality Starts	-8
71	James Paxton	Holly Wins Bonus Injury Risk	+10
72	Spencer Turnbull	Holly Wins Bonus Playing Time Question	+4
73	Ranger Suárez T12	Toby Wins Bonus	-3
74	Brandon Pfaadt	Toby Team Context Effect	+1
75	Jameson Taillon	Toby Wins Bonus	-4
76	Luis Severino	Toby Quality Starts	+9
77	José Buttó	Toby Ratio Focused Rotation Spot Bonus	-3
78	Martín Pérez	Vargas Rule Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-6
79	Javier Assad	Vargas Rule Ratio Focused Playing Time Question	-6
80	Hunter Brown T13	Cherry Bomb Team Context Effect	-1
81	Kyle Harrison	Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside	-15
82	Mitch Keller	Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside	-
83	Triston McKenzie	Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside Injury Risk	-
84	Charlie Morton	Cherry Bomb Wins Bonus	+2
85	Jose Quintana T14	Streaming Option	+UR
86	Logan Allen	Streaming Option Quality Starts	+4
87	Jon Gray	Streaming Option Strikeout Upside	+7
88	Dane Dunning	Streaming Option Team Context Effect	+4
89	Chris Paddack	Streaming Option Quality Starts	+UR
90	Keaton Winn	Streaming Option Ratio Focused	+UR
91	Bryce Elder	Streaming Option Wins Bonus Playing Time Question	+UR
92	Sean Manaea	Streaming Option Quality Starts	+UR
93	Tyler Alexander	Streaming Option Wins Bonus	+UR
94	JP Sears	Streaming Option Strikeout Upside	+UR
95	Lance Lynn	Streaming Option Strikeout Upside	-
96	Andrew Abbott	Streaming Option Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-3
97	Michael Lorenzen	Streaming Option Quality Starts	+UR
98	Jonathan Cannon	Streaming Option Ratio Focused Playing Time Question	+2
99	Erick Fedde	Streaming Option Quality Starts	+UR
100	Andrew Heaney	Streaming Option Strikeout Upside	+UR

 

I’ve updated the tags for 2024, now allowing myself to tag a player in one three groups.

Overall Label
Aces Gonna Ace
Ace Potential
Holly
Toby
Cherry Bomb
Spice Girl
Vargas Rule
Streaming Option

Bonus Stat
QS Bonus
Wins Bonus
Strikeouts Bonus
Ratios Bonus
Rotation Spot Bonus
Team Context Effect

Special Tag
Stash Option
Injury Risk
Playing Time Question

A quick legend for those unfamiliar with our odd terms at Pitcher List:

Holly = Solid ratios, constant 6 IP & a 20-25% strikeout rate
Toby = Borderline arm for your 12-teamers who has a 20% or lower strikeout rate. They barely do enough.
Cherry Bomb = A volatile starting pitcher. Usually with strikeout upside and low ratio floor.
Spice Girl = Young arms who have massive ceilings or could be off your team in a few weeks.
Vargas Rule = A pitcher we’re picking up now given he’s on a roll, but we drop once he stumbles again.
Team Context Effect = Either ranked higher or lower due to team context (Coors, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta, Cincy, etc.)

Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)