Welcome back to our Expected SP Schedules series!
Throughout the season, the Expected SP Schedules article will provide insight regarding each starting pitcher’s upcoming matchups. Who has a two-start week? Who is facing a favorable lineup? Who is struggling but might be due for a turnaround? Among other content at Pitcher List, this article is meant to help guide fantasy baseball managers through the handling of their rotations.
Readers should weigh pitchers’ next two predicted starts more heavily than the third and fourth, as those are more likely to change. Today, I’ve elected to only map out the games that lead up to the All-Star break, as teams typically shuffle their rotations after the hiatus. The games listed in each chart start with the games of Monday, June 23 despite the Wednesday publication date so that the chart coincides with the start of the week.
Remember the handy glossary for this article:
- (OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
- (DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
- ??? represents an unclear rotational spot, and the notes will explain the options.
And finally, let’s look at our PLV-based offensive rankings, which incorporate our Process+ metric to project future offensive performance. These rankings, which are in alphabetical order by tier and were last updated on June 23, continue to reflect the offensive skills that teams have showed lately rather than over the course of the entire season. Toronto has moved back into the top tier, which is unchanged aside from their entrance and the Angels’ exit. That makes sense to me, as the Angels have big pop in their top six but also a lot of swing-and-miss potential. Aside from the home Rockies, Minnesota is the only team to move two tiers upward, likely on the strength of a healthy campaign from Byron Buxton, but I would consider them a relatively average offense. I also don’t have fear starting my better pitchers in Coors, but I wouldn’t go with any streamers there. The post-Devers Red Sox continue to tumble down the ranks, looking like a good offense to stream against on the road and not nearly as scary in Fenway Park.
AL East
- The Orioles are temporarily using a six-man with Brandon Young, but I think his outing this week will merely be a spot start. They might be calling him up to give Tomoyuki Sugano (83.2 IP, 3.55 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 9.5% K-BB%) some extra rest. Sugano’s recent performance serves as a reminder of how hard it is to be successful as a starting pitcher with a 15% strikeout rate. He’s only covered 12.2 IP and allowed nine earned runs in his last three starts.
- Richard Fitts seems to be back in the rotation after an injury to Hunter Dobbins. This week will be tough, but there are four series of enticing matchups on the horizon after that. It should be a nice run into the break for Sox arms. Lucas Giolito (51.2 IP, 4.53 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) 13.4% K-BB% is on a heater as of late, having allowed only two earned runs in his last 18 IP. The opposite can be said about Walker Buehler (63 IP, 6.29 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 9.3% K-BB%), who’s allowed 28 ER in 29.1 IP since coming off the IL in late May. His rotation spot could be in jeopardy.
- Ryan Yarbrough hit the IL this weekend with an oblique strain, opening up the fifth spot in the Yankees’ rotation once again. It was temporarily filled by Allan Winans, who has a miniscule 0.90 ERA in AAA. Unfortunately for Winans, Marcus Stroman is almost done with his rehab assignment, which is why I have him slotted in here. This is shaping up to be a pretty challenging stretch, but you’re starting most of these arms regardless.
- Tampa will be busy until mid-July, as they have only one off day between today and the All-Star break. In my mind, this is Taj Bradley’s last week to prove he should keep his rotation spot. Joe Boyle (64 IP, 1.83 ERA, 22.3% K-BB%) and Ian Seymour (74.1 IP, 2.78 ERA, 23.9% K-BB%) are banging the door down in AAA.
- Max Scherzer is back! His return basically brings Toronto’s rotation to full strength, as Eric Lauer (35.1 IP, 2.29 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 18.1% K-BB%) has been far better than Bowden Francis. (64 IP, 6.05 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 9.4% K-BB%). There are some nice starts on either tail of this schedule, and the middle isn’t too bad depending on how much you buy into recent offensive slumps from the Yankees and Red Sox.
AL Central
- After a string of strong starts, Davis Martin (80.2 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 10.2% K-BB%) was unfortunately placed on the IL this weekend with a forearm strain. This opens up a rotation spot for some combination of Tyler Alexander and Mike Vasil. Neither has any fantasy appeal. Shane Smith is lined up for two starts this week, but that’s been the case multiple times lately. The White Sox have often employed a bullpen game or used spot starters to give their guys extra rest, so don’t be surprised if these matchups change, even with a couple off days coming up.
- This is a scary two start for Logan Allen, one of which I am probably steering clear. On the other hand, Slade Cecconi (37.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 15.8% K-BB%) has been in a groove lately and should have deeper league streaming appeal in each of these next three matchups.
- Eury Pérez (11.2 IP, 6.17 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 7.4% K-BB%) continues to act as a HIPSTER, but his stuff looks great, so hopefully the results follow. Edward Cabrera (59 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 14.6% K-BB%) has continued to sprinkle in some solid outings, but he remains a WHIP risk. His matchups are pretty soft heading into the break, making him a good short-term add rather than simply a streamer
NL West
