Welcome back to our Expected SP Schedules series!
Throughout the season, the Expected SP Schedules article will provide insight regarding each starting pitcher’s upcoming matchups. Who has a two-start week? Who is facing a favorable lineup? Who is struggling but might be due for a turnaround? Among other content at Pitcher List, this article is meant to help guide fantasy baseball managers through the handling of their rotations. The trade deadline is looming, so you should still take those last two columns with a major grain of salt — shakeups are a-coming! Today’s title is an admittedly bad pun referencing the return of Blake Snell.
Remember the handy glossary for this article:
- (OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
- (DH) indicates a doubleheader that day. Toronto, Baltimore, Miami, and Atlanta have doubleheaders this week and could employ spot starters (denoted “SPOT”).
- ??? represents an unclear rotational spot, and the notes will explain the options.
And finally, let’s look at our PLV-based offensive rankings, which incorporate our Process+ metric to project future offensive performance. These rankings, which are in alphabetical order by tier and were last updated on July 21, continue to reflect the offensive skills that teams have showed lately rather than over the course of the entire season. As I would’ve expected, Kansas City has fallen out of the top tier, as have the Dodgers and Blue Jays. Detroit moves in while five other teams (Cubs, Angels, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies) keep their top rating, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yankees drop down with Aaron Judge on the IL.
Houston tumbles into the bottom tier as they continue to get decimated by injuries, but I could see them still doing some damage to southpaws with their righty-heavy lineup. We also see our rankings starting to reflect the perils of pitching in Sacramento in the summer, as the A’s are now a tough matchup at home but a weak one on the road.
PLV Projections Team Offense Ranking (7/21 Update)
AL East
Orioles’ Expected Starters
- The Orioles have a unique schedule this week thanks to Tuesday’s doubleheader with Toronto, as they’ll play seven games but are still off on Thursday. They will likely need a spot starter for one of those doubleheader games. I expect it to be Brandon Young, who was just demoted with the activation of Zach Eflin (67 IP, 5.78 ERA, 1.37 ERA, 12.2% K-BB%), or Cade Povich. Eflin looked good in his first start off the IL, but I have trouble going with this two-start week in leagues shallower than 15 teams, given the matchups. Both Povich and Young are candidates to rejoin the rotation if the Orioles trade any of their veteran arms like Charlie Morton or Tomoyuki Sugano.
Red Sox Expected Starters
- Unless Boston trades for a starter, which certainly could be in the cards, this is their rotation for the time being because of an injury to Hunter Dobbins and setback for Tanner Houck. Richard Fitts (37 IP, 4.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 13.8% K-BB%) has had a rough season, but I feel better about his two-step than Eflin’s because the matchups are much softer. It’s a better option in wins leagues than QS, as Fitts doesn’t often go six innings.
Yankees’ Expected Starters
- The Yankees have a traditional seven-game week coming up, taking on both Florida teams this week before both Texas teams next week! The Cam Schlittler two-step is a tough decision in shallower leagues; I’d probably rank him ahead of Eflin in wins leagues but about even with him in QS. Will Warren (104.2 IP, 4.82 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 15.9% K-BB%) has some nice matchups coming up and definitely has streamer appeal in shallower formats. One thing to keep in mind for future weeks is the return of Luis Gil, who likely needs just one more minor league rehab start. I could see him replacing Schlittler, Warren, or Marcus Stroman.
Rays’ Expected Starters
- We’ve finally seen a personnel change in the Tampa rotation, as Taj Bradley (111.1 IP, 4.61 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 10.8% K-BB%) was sent down last week. We might see more soon, as Zack Littell (128.1 IP, 3.72 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 13.2% K-BB%) is rumored to be available via trade. Joe Boyle seems to be the fit to replace Bradley in the rotation. Tampa’s pitchers will be glad to get away from Steinbrenner field during this stretch, but they won’t have an easy matchup until next weekend and then have to go to Sutter Health Park after that.
Blue Jays’ Expected Starters
- Toronto’s rotation has really stabilized as the team has caught fire, and it’s expected to remain the same this week aside from a likely doubleheader spot start. Eric Lauer (69 IP, 2.61 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 20.4% K-BB%) has been excellent lately, and while I do think he’s worth a stream this week because Baltimore is weak against lefties, I wouldn’t start him in Coors or against the Dodgers.
AL Central
White Sox Expected Starters
- With the return of Davis Martin (85.2 IP, 3.89 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9.3% K-BB%) and Jonathan Cannon (88.1 IP, 4.48 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 10.8% K-BB%), this rotation feels like a whole bunch of meh. There’s just no K upside and minimal win chance, so it’s hard to find spots to play these guys. Maybe next week in Seattle or at home against Cleveland.
Guardians’ Expected Starters
- Because of the doubleheader that the Guardians played on Saturday with the Royals, they’ll need a spot starter during their series against the Rockies. Other than that, it should be business as usual. Slade Cecconi (69.1 IP, 3.76 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 13.9% K-BB%) and Logan Allen (101.2 IP, 4.16 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9% K-BB%) are great streaming options, and I’d expect Allen to be more widely available than Cecconi. Both of them have mediocre stuff but are on nice runs, which should be more than enough against Rockie Road, the best matchup in the game right now.
Tigers’ Expected Starters
- Troy Melton (6 ER in 5 IP) had a rough MLB debut last week against the Pirates, but it seems he’ll stick in the rotation for the time being after Keider Montero was sent down and Sawyer Gipson-Long was pulled off his rehab assignment. This is a dangerous two-step for Casey Mize (92.2 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 15.1% K-BB%) even with the Diamondbacks’ lineup getting weaker from trades. I’m probably sitting it in all formats because of his recent form unless I have no other options.
Royals’ Expected Starters
- Ageless wonder Rich Hill got through 5 IP against the vaunted Cubs last week, allowing only one earned run. KC’s rotation continues to thin, as Kris Bubic (116.1 IP, 2.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 16.2% K-BB%) was placed on the IL with a rotator cuff strain after experiencing diminished velocity in his recent starts. He joins Cole Ragans and Michael Lorenzen on the IL. The fallout of these injuries is that we could see Rich Hill and Dallas Keuchel in the same rotation in the year 2025. Keuchel has made a couple of outings in AAA this month and has worked up to five innings.
Twins’ Expected Starters
- Zebby Matthews (29 IP, 4.97 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 23.4% K-BB%) had a breakout performance on Friday, striking out seven in six shutout innings against the Nats. His skills are far stronger than his ratios suggest, and he’s an all-formats add in my eyes. Bailey Ober (92 IP, 5.28 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 12.8% K-BB%) has completed a couple of AAA rehab starts and is ready to return and replace David Festa. Like Matthews, he also pitched on Friday, so it’s possible that their matchups get switched. Simeon Woods Richardson (76 IP, 4.14 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.5% K-BB%) has decent matchups this week for a two-step, but there’s just not enough strikeout or volume upside there for me.
AL West
Astros’ Expected Starters
Angels’ Expected Starters
Athletics‘ Expected Starters
Mariners’ Expected Starters
Rangers’ Expected Starters
NL East
Atlanta Expected Starters
Marlins’ Expected Starters
- This rotation could look a lot different by this time next week, as trade rumors continue to swirl around Edward Cabrera (88 IP, 3.48 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 16.8% K-BB%) and Sandy Alcantara (104 IP, 6.66 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.3% K-BB%). I’m comfortable with the Cabrera two-step in 15- and 12-teamers. In other news, Janson Junk’s (60.1 IP, 3.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 16.2% K-BB%) magic may be running out. He’s allowed seven earned runs and 15 baserunners in his last two starts (10 IP). I don’t think I’m starting him against the Judge-less Yankees.
Mets’ Expected Starters
Nationals’ Expected Starters
NL Central
Cubs’ Expected Starters
Reds’ Expected Starters
Brewers’ Expected Starters
Pirates’ Expected Starters
Cardinals’ Expected Starters
NL West
Diamondbacks’ Expected Starters
Padres’ Expected Starters
Giants’ Expected Starters
