Welcome back to our Expected SP Schedules series!
Throughout the season, the Expected SP Schedules article will provide insight regarding each starting pitcher’s upcoming matchups. Who has a two-start week? Who is facing a favorable lineup? Who is struggling but might be due for a turnaround? Among other content at Pitcher List, this article is meant to help guide fantasy baseball managers through the handling of their rotations. With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and quite a few pitchers returning from injury, rotations are starting to take shape for the stretch run. Speaking of arms coming back from injury, this week’s title is a reference to the return of Hunter Greene. Greene is slated to return to a major league mound this week for the first time since early June in a challenging matchup against the Phillies after nagging groin and back issues derailed his season.
Remember the handy glossary for this article:
- (OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
- (DH) indicates a doubleheader that day. The Brewers and Cubs have a doubleheader on August 18 and are likely to employ a spot starter for at least one of the games in their five-game series (denoted “SPOT”).
- ??? represents an unclear rotational spot, and the notes will explain the options.
And finally, let’s look at our PLV-based offensive rankings, which incorporate our Process+ metric to project future offensive performance. These rankings, which are in alphabetical order by tier and were last updated on August 11, continue to reflect the offensive skills that teams have showed lately rather than over the course of the entire season. One team joining the top tier that has found themselves in every single one of these tiers this season at one point or another is the Astros, who continue to win in spite of countless injuries. Some other teams on the rise include the Brewers, the Rockies, and the A’s, who now grade as a tough matchup regardless of venue. We have seen some high-scoring games in Coors Field as of late, even if a good amount of them have been the Rockies’ opponents
On the other side of the spectrum, the Orioles have tumbled all the way down from the “Top” tier to “Weak,” which makes more sense to me given how depleted their lineup is right now. New teams in the bottom tier include the Rays and Giants.
AL East
Orioles’ Expected Starters
- The O’s get nothing but the Mariners, Astros, and Red Sox for the next two weeks, and that’s no picnic! Dean Kremer (132.1 IP, 4.35 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 13.5% K-BB%) gets two starts this week, and he’s a decent but not top-tier option in points leagues and other deeper formats. Staff ace Kyle Bradish continues to make rehab starts in AAA and seems poised to make his season debut later this month. The results have been uneven for Bradish so far, but the velo is there. Trevor Rogers (62.1 IP, 1.44 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 16.5% K-BB%) remains in a groove and is a must-start until his results indicate otherwise.
- Every series is big for Boston at this point as they try to chase down Toronto for the AL East lead, so they will be happy to get two starts from Garrett Crochet. I remain uninterested in starting Dustin May and Walker Buehler unless you’re totally desperate, and none of their upcoming matchups are all that enticing until the Pittsburgh series. Lucas Giolito (100.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 11.8% K-BB%) has been a pretty reliable streamer the last two months, but his most recent outing (4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 BB, 1 K) is an indication that he’s not as consistent as we would like.
- The results remain uneven for Will Warren, but this two-step is appealing in all formats and even more so in wins leagues. The upcoming matchups give Cam Schlittler (24.2 IP, 4.38 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 10.8% K-BB%) some appeal as well, though he hasn’t yet completed six innings in his first five MLB starts.
- Tampa’s road-heavy remaining schedule continues this week with six games on the West Coast. The venues couldn’t be much different, with the hitter’s haven of Sutter Health Park and pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park. Ryan Pepiot in Sacramento scares me a bit given his homer-prone tendencies, but I think you have to roll with it in leagues whose lineups lock weekly so you can get the second start. I would be more hesitant with Shane Baz (128 IP, 4.92 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 15.6% K-BB%) and Joe Boyle (30.2 IP, 3.82 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.8% K-BB%), who both struggled last week and present real ratio risk. Boyle’s performance so far this year doesn’t suggest that, but he has a 12.6% walk rate and .164 BABIP.
- This rotation is poised to add trade acquisition Shane Bieber before the end of the month, but it’s still not clear who he’s going to displace. Eric Lauer (83 IP, 2.82 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 18.4% K-BB%) would be the clear choice based on name alone, but he continues to be the most effective arm in this unit. Maybe they will move to a six-man until someone struggles or gets hurt. After this Cubs series, there are a lot of soft starts on the horizon.
AL Central
- This rotation is a little bit of a mess, with only four starters on the active roster after the demotion of Jonathan Cannon. Tyler Alexander worked as the bulk reliever behind Elvis Peguero as the bulk reliever yesterday, and they are using a spot starter today to push back Shane Smith (96 IP, 4.22 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 12.3% K-BB%). Smith has fanned 12 over 9.1 IP since returning from an ankle injury and could be an interesting deep league streamer down the stretch if he’s able to regain the form he showed earlier this year.
- The red-hot Guardians continue to get it done despite not adding much at the trade deadline and losing star closer Emmanuel Clase to a gambling-related investigation. Gavin Williams (125 IP, 3.17 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 10.9% K-BB%) took a no-hit bid into the 9th inning last week before Juan Soto broke it up with a home run. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle on Wednesday after being pushed to 126 pitches in that outing. Logan Allen (113.2 IP, 3.96 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.8% K-BB%) is a two-start worth going for in most wins leagues, as Miami and Atlanta are both decent offenses that are weaker against lefties. He doesn’t have a high ceiling because of the 18% strikeout rate, but he’s only allowed more than three earned runs once in his last 10 outings.
- Detroit continues to take measures to keep their starters fresh, and it’s already been announced that Tarik Skubal’s start will be pushed back from Wednesday to Thursday. We could see Troy Melton (17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 16.4% K-BB%) in a spot start or working behind an opener. If it’s the latter, that could be a great cheap win opportunity. I wish I could be more confident in Chris Paddack (121 IP, 4.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 12% K-BB%) for this two-step, but he hardly gets any strikeouts and is always a risk to surrender a couple long balls.
- Kansas City’s rotation looks a little different than it did before the trade deadline due to the acquisitions of Bailey Falter and Ryan Bergert (47 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 12% K-BB%) and a season-ending injury to Kris Bubic. Bergert currently slots in to the fifth spot but could lose it to Michael Lorenzen, who likely made his final rehab start on Sunday. Similarly to Paddack, the upside feels too low with this Falter two-step. Aside from the Nats, these next three weeks will bring a whole bunch of roughly mid-tier offenses.
- This is going to be a challenging week for Twins pitching, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t tempted to roll with my guy Zebby Matthews. The strikeout upside is high, but the ratio risk is real, especially against these offenses. Despite that, I think he’s a better option than Falter, Paddack, and perhaps even Warren. Bailey Ober (103 IP, 5.16 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 12.9% K-BB%) has looked a little better since his return from the injured list, with the velo up a tick. Hopefully, he can have some solid starts down the stretch to make us confident in his chances to be a reliable arm in 2026.
- Regression has arrived swiftly for Janson Junk (70.1 IP, 3.97 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 14.8% K-BB%), who’s allowed 16 earned runs in his last four starts (20 IP). I like the Cleveland matchup today, but the Red Sox one on the weekend might be enough to scare me away from the two-step. Teammates Eury Pérez (55.1 IP, 3.25 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 14.6% K-BB%) and Edward Cabrera (108 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 17.8% K-BB%) are approaching must-start status at this point, as both have been excellent the last couple months.
NL West
