Expected SP Schedules Weeks 22-23: Brad Is Rad

Welcome back to our Expected SP Schedules series!

Throughout the season, the Expected SP Schedules article will provide insight regarding each starting pitcher’s upcoming matchups. Who has a two-start week? Who is facing a favorable lineup? Who is struggling but might be due for a turnaround? Among other content at Pitcher List, this article is meant to help guide fantasy baseball managers through the handling of their rotations. One thing that has been good to see lately is so many pitchers returning from the injured list, many of whom are making their season debuts after serious injury. Recently activated arms include Shane Bieber, Jameson Taillon, Cristian Javier, Bryce Miller, Aaron Nola, and as of today, Kyle Bradish! Chris Sale has completed his final rehab start and won’t be far behind.

Remember the handy glossary for this article:

• (OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
• (DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
• “SPOT” means the team will be using an unannounced spot starter that day that is not expected to remain in the rotation.
• ??? represents an unclear rotational spot, and the notes will explain the options.

And finally, let’s look at our PLV-based offensive rankings, which incorporate our Process+ metric to project future offensive performance. These rankings, which are in alphabetical order by tier and were last updated on August 25, continue to reflect the offensive skills that teams have showed lately rather than over the course of the entire season. This week’s update sees a lot more teams than usual clustered towards the center, but the Phillies and road Mariners bucked that trend to break into the top tier. Notable fallers include the Rays and road Rockies rejoining the bottom tier. We also see a wide gap in the difficulty of facing the Rangers offense depending on the venue, with Globe Life Field playing super pitcher-friendly this year.

PLV Projections Team Offense Ranking (8/25 Update)

 

AL East

• The aforementioned Bradish will be making his return to the major league mound after undergoing Tommy John surgery with an internal brace in June 2024. Wednesday’s starter is yet to be announced, and it seems that the club will be going with a bullpen game or call a starter up from AAA to give their other arms some additional rest. Dean Kremer (152.1 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 14.2% K-BB%) burned a lot of people this weekend (5 IP, 6 ER) after a couple of promising outings, proving again that he’s best left on the waiver wire in shallower leagues unless he has a soft matchup.

• Boston has finally given up on Walker Buehler (112.1 IP, 5.45 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 5.7% K-BB%) in the rotation, with Richard Fitts the replacement for now. As of when I am writing this, Fitts is slated to follow an opener on Monday. I’m willing to stream him this weekend against Pittsburgh in wins leagues if it seems like he has a good chance to go five innings or work behind an opener again. This schedule is about as streamable as it gets for the next couple weeks before the series in Sacramento and against the Yankees.

• Speaking of good schedules, this is an appetizing week for the Bronx Bombers. Cam Schlittler seems to be hitting his stride and is an all formats play for this two-step. Luis Gil (19 IP, 4.26 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 4.7% K-BB%) isn’t far behind, but he’s much better suited for wins leagues because of the control issues.

• The Joe Boyle experiment didn’t go quite as well as Tampa would have hoped, and he now finds himself back in AAA. It’s a shame that he’s missing these matchups, but hopefully Ian Seymour can step up and have some streaming appeal once fully stretched out. I know the risk is high, but I even feel decent about starting Shane Baz (138 IP, 5.22 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 15.3% K-BB%) against Cleveland on the road.

• While the projected starts are a little murky in Toronto with the return of Shane Bieber, they are probably thrilled to have that problem. Eric Lauer (88 IP, 2.76 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 17.5% K-BB%) was available in relief this weekend but didn’t appear, so he will get at least one more start. As Nick said in his SP Roundup, Bieber needs to be added everywhere. I would also hold onto Lauer in most spots to get this Minnesota start.

AL Central

• To put it mildly, this is going to be a challenging week for Chicago’s rotation. On the bright side, all of these guys have had at least one solid outing lately. Despite that, these matchups make me uninterested in plugging any of them into my lineups. Lastly, the White Sox have used quite a few spot starters or bullpen games this year to give their starters extra rest, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of those later this week.

• Parker Messick excelled in his MLB debut last week, fanning six across 6.2 innings of one-run ball. That outing earned him a spot in the rotation moving forward and a solid matchup this week against the road Rays. This feels crazy to say, but I might prefer starting him to Tanner Bibee, who just hasn’t put it together this year. Slade Cecconi (96 IP, 4.41 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 13% K-BB%) also has some streaming intrigue despite recent struggles, but only for this week.

• This week’s schedule is likely to be a challenge for Detroit’s arms, but having Tarik Skubal starting 33% of the games sure helps! Unfortunately, the other four arms in this rotation have struggled enough lately that I can’t start any of them confidently. If I had to pick one for the next two weeks, it would probably be Jack Flaherty (136.2 IP, 4.87 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 19.8% K-BB%) because of the matchups.

• Kansas City looks to keep their playoff hopes alive with a week of six divisional games. Even with regression seemingly on the horizon, Noah Cameron should be started everywhere in this two-step. Ryan Bergert (58 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 13.6% K-BB%) also continues to throw well and has some streaming appeal in wins leagues. On the other hand, Seth Lugo (142 IP, 3.99 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11.7% K-BB%) continues to have a brutal second half and could be worth sitting against the Tigers.

• The Twins gave their trade deadline acquisitions Mick Abel and Taj Bradley a chance to start this weekend. The duo didn’t exactly take advantage of the opportunity, combining for 13 earned runs in 8 innings. I can’t say with 100% certainty that either will get another start this weekend, but I have them penciled in. Similarly, Zebby Matthews (52.2 IP, 5.30 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 20.9% K-BB%) is unfortunately going to stay on my bench or waiver wire until he has a good outing.

 

• Is it just me, or does it feel like the Astros have a never-ending stream of starters to activate off the IL? With Lance McCullers Jr. (48.1 IP, 6.89 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 8.4% K-BB%) returning, Luis García Jr. is probably the only one left that we will see this season. Since it doesn’t seem like Garcia is quite ready, I expect these six guys to take the ball this week. If Jason Alexander (49 IP, 4.59 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.8% K-BB%) does get this start, he’s definitely worth a stream, as most arms are against Rockie Road.

• The Angels will be road warriors for the next 10 games, and this rotation continues to have minimal fantasy appeal because of the WHIP risk. The only arm I am rolling with in any formats is Yusei Kikuchi (150 IP, 3.42 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 14.2% K-BB%) because Texas is a great place to pitch. His two-step next week is also worth considering even though Houston is pretty strong against lefties.

• An injury to Jack Perkins has opened up a spot in the A’s rotation, and it looks like it will be Osvaldo Bido (65.1 IP, 5.37 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 8.1% K-BB%) filling the vacancy. There might even be two openings after Jacob Lopez experienced forearm tightness in a disastrous (2 IP, 9 ER) outing on Sunday against the Mariners. If Lopez is out, A’s pitching will become even better to stream against, especially for games in Sacramento. Jeffrey Springs (145.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 11.7% K-BB%) righted the ship this weekend after a couple of bad starts and is the only arm here I trust at all even with the softer matchups, assuming Lopez is out.

• With Bryce Miller’s return last week, Seattle is back to their best five arms in the rotation as they try to catch Houston for the AL West title. Despite his mediocre results last time out, we feel good about how the stuff looked in that game and would recommend the two-step. All other arms here are likely universally owned and started.

• The Jacob deGrom injury scare finally came last week, but I think we are all hoping that’s all it was. deGrom is scheduled to toe the mound for two divisional starts this week, and it will be interesting to see how deep he is allowed to pitch. Jack Leiter (115.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 10.9% K-BB%) was brilliant this weekend against the Guardians, fanning 10 across seven scoreless innings, but it’s still not enough for me to trust him in Sacramento.

 

• Nothing has been confirmed, but I expect Atlanta to go with a six-man rotation once Chris Sale (89.1 IP, 2.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 23.8% K-BB%) returns this weekend because of the lack of off days coming up. If not, I imagine they are not too attached to Cal Quantrill or Bryce Elder. Sale is an easy start upon his return, and Hurston Waldrep (24.2 IP, 0.73 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 20.2% K-BB%) probably is too until he has a bad outing. He’s a completely different pitcher than he was in his cup of coffee last year at the major league level.

• Miami gets a divisional tour these next two weeks, with one series against each team, plus three more games against the Nats on the back end! These sit/start decision for Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara are really tough. I generally feel a bit more confident in Cabrera.

• Nolan McLean (12.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 23.9% K-BB%) looks like the real deal, and hopefully he is, because Philly this week is a tough test. The Mets may use a sixth starter on Friday so that Kodai Senga gets an extra day of rest. It could be prospect Jonah Tong, but the likelier option seems to be Tylor Megill (68.1 IP, 3.95 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 18.4% K-BB%), who has been excellent on his rehab assignment.

• It’s such a shame to see Zack Wheeler go down amidst one of his best seasons. Here’s to a speedy recovery. No team is prepared to lose their ace, but the Phillies will hopefully be able to handle it better than most. In a week or two, Taijuan Walker (96.2 IP, 3.44 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.5% K-BB%) could be a decent streamer in deeper leagues if you’re looking for cheap wins. For now, the matchups are too tough.

• There’s not a ton of intrigue with this rotation, though I am interested to see how Cade Cavalli (22.1 IP, 2.82 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 12.4% K-BB%) performs in a tough matchup with the Yankees. The low chance of a win probably still has me sitting that one, and the same goes for the mercurial MacKenzie Gore (142.1 IP, 4,11 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 19.3% K-BB%) unless you only care about strikeouts.